Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion

Published

2 years ago

March 20, 2023

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At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.

It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.

Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.

A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.

The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.

The falsehoods and delusions that led to war

America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.

The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.

The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.

Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.

This has weakened Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.

A lasting impact on US foreign policy

The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.

That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.

The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.

Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.

Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.

The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.

And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.

Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back

In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.

Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.

It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.

Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.

That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.

Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.

US

Trump to double tariffs on steel imports – as he threatens China

Published

8 hours ago

May 31, 2025

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Trump to double tariffs on steel imports - as he threatens China

Donald Trump said he plans to double tariffs on steel imports from next week, deepening his trade war which has hit global markets.

The US president told a rally of steel workers in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on Friday that tariffs would be raised from 25% to 50%, “which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States”.

Mr Trump later said on Truth Social that the new levy – also affecting aluminium imports – would be in effect from Wednesday and that American “industries are coming back like never before”.

“This will be yet another BIG jolt of great news for our wonderful steel and aluminum (sic) workers,” he added. “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

He then said: “We don’t want America’s future to be built with shoddy steel from Shanghai – we want it built with the strength and the pride of Pittsburgh!”

Sky News understands that British steel exports are exempt from this rise after a UK-US trade agreement was signed earlier this month.

The agreement said at the time that the US “will promptly construct a quota at most favoured nation (MFN) rates” for British steel, aluminium and derivative products.

Earlier, the US president claimed China had “totally violated” an agreement to mutually roll back tariffs and trade restrictions for critical minerals.

“So much for being Mr Nice Guy,” he said in a post on his social media platform.

In March, Mr Trump introduced a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminium imports as a way to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.

The rates threaten to make the cost of products using steel and aluminium – such as cars or soft drink cans – more expensive for Americans.

He also previously threatened Canada with 50% levies on imports, while the provincial government of Ontario, in turn, threatened to charge 25% more for the electricity it supplies to the US.

Canada’s most populous province provides electricity to more than 1.5 million American homes and businesses in Minnesota, New York and Michigan.

At the time, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the proposed 50% tariffs an “attack” on Canadian workers, families and businesses.

Roughly a quarter of all steel used in the US is imported, with a majority coming from Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Germany.

In 2024, 6.6m tonnes of steel were imported by the US from Canada, while 3.5m tonnes were brought in from Mexico.

The US is also reliant on imports for aluminium, with 3.2m tonnes coming from Canada last year.

US

Painfully soft and inane questions for Musk’s White House swan song

Published

10 hours ago

May 31, 2025

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Painfully soft and inane questions for Musk's White House swan song

It was billed by the president as a press conference..

But that was accurate only to the extent that there were a few select reporters asking questions in the Oval Office.

They were part of the ‘pool’, a chosen group of journalists on a rota to cover the president’s movements each day.

The rota used to be drawn up by the White House Correspondents Association on a rotating basis.

The Trump administration has changed that. They now compile the pool.

And today, as it happens, the media seemed particularly compliant.

The questions were soft. Painfully so.

There was one on whether the president had any marital advice for his French counterpart – who appeared to be shoved by his wife the other day.

Another was about whether Mr Musk thought it was harder to colonise to Mars or reform government.

There were one or two about the pressing issues of the day, like Gaza, but nothing that could be described as probing or doing what we are supposed to be there to do – hold power to account.

And Musk, under Trump, has without question wielded immense power over the past few months; unprecedented for an unelected official.

He upended the workings of federal government, slashing thousands of jobs. He forced the closure of whole departments like USAID, changing America’s global footprint.

He did it all with a sense of enjoyment. The literal chainsaw to bureaucracy was memorable.

There is little debate in America about the need to cut government bureaucracy or cut the debt.

America, more than any country I have lived in, is a place full of bloat and waste. Yet it was Mr Musk’s methods which caused so much unease among his many critics.

They argued that where a scalpel was definitely needed, Musk instead deployed a sledgehammer.

At times, his flamboyant style was a neat distraction from the substance of Trump’s sweeping policy changes.

But none of that was interrogated in this ‘press conference’.

Instead, the inane questions went on.

Trump was asked if he would pardon Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs should he be convicted – he didn’t say ‘no’, but there was no follow up to examine why.

He was asked if he wished he’d become a judge given that they are blocking so much of his legislation. He laughed.

There was a moment when irony appeared to have died altogether.

In the same breath as trumpeting his success in cutting government waste – when he has, in fact, achieved a fraction of the $2 trillion savings he promised – Musk congratulated Trump for deploying so much gold around the Oval Office.

The presidential office has had an extensive, gaudy gold makeover costing undisclosed sums.

One reporter did ask about Musk’s alleged drug use. But by attributing the story to the New York Times – who have made the allegations – Musk had an easy out.

“Why believe that fake news,” he essentially said.

Surely the obvious question was “Mr Musk, when was the last time you took ketamine or ecstasy?”

It never came.

We did get the answer to one burning question, trivial though it was, given what’s going on in the world.

But it took 41 minutes for any of the reporters to ask it: Why was Elon Musk sporting a shiner on his right eye?

His 4-year-old son, X, whacked him, he said.

Maybe young X has some sympathy for the thousands of federal workers – ordinary Americans – who Musk fired at his president’s pleasure.

US

Musk appears with black eye at White House farewell – as Trump says he’s ‘not really leaving’

Published

13 hours ago

May 30, 2025

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Musk appears with black eye at White House farewell - as Trump says he's 'not really leaving'

Elon Musk has formally left his role in Donald Trump’s administration.

Mr Musk sported a black eye at a press conference with Mr Trump in which the president confirmed the tech billionaire’s expected departure on Friday.

The billionaire owner of Tesla, SpaceX, and X said his five-year-old son X Æ A-12, or X for short, was responsible for the bruising.

“I was horsing around with my son… I said ‘go ahead and punch me in the face’, and he did,” Mr Musk told reporters in the Oval Office.

“It turns out a five-year-old can punch, actually. I didn’t really feel much at the time.”

At the press conference, Mr Trump thanked Mr Musk “for his incredible service” with his work for his help setting up and running the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, and suggested he would continue to be “back and forth”.

The US president handed Mr Musk a golden key in a White House-branded box, which he described as a “special present”.

“Elon gave an incredible service. [There is] nobody like him. And he had to go through the slings and the arrows, which is a shame, because he is an incredible patriot,” Mr Trump said.

“Some of the media organisations in this room are the slingers,” Mr Musk said when asked about the “slings and arrows” in an apparent dig at The New York Times.

The US president praised Mr Musk as “one of the greatest business leaders and innovators the world has ever produced”, commending him for “stepping forward to put his talents into our nation” by leading DOGE.

Meanwhile, Mr Musk, who was wearing a DOGE-branded baseball cap and a T-shirt with “The Dogefather” written on it, said it was “not the end of DOGE, but the beginning” and that the DOGE team would “only grow stronger”.

The 53-year-old added that he would continue to visit the White House and would still be an adviser to Mr Trump.

During the press conference, Mr Trump also turned to various conflicts around the globe, telling reporters that Israel and Hamas are “very close to an agreement” for a ceasefire in Gaza.

The president said an agreement with Iran to stop it from developing nuclear weapons was also “very close”.

Meanwhile, following recent tensions between India and Pakistan, Mr Trump took credit for de-escalating the situation between the two countries.

The US president had handed Mr Musk the task of cutting government spending by sacking federal workers and eliminating bureaucratic waste as head of the newly formed DOGE department.

Mr Musk oversaw drastic cuts to America’s humanitarian efforts, leading to criticism that the US was relinquishing some of its global influence.

Despite promising to save taxpayers as much as $2trn (£1.5trn), DOGE currently estimates its efforts have saved $175bn (£130bn).

Mr Musk claimed the savings could be even higher, saying in the Oval Office on Friday: “We do expect over time a trillion dollars in savings. Say by the middle of next year, with presidential support, we can do it.”

Mr Trump read out a list of savings DOGE has allegedly made, including cutting $101m spent on DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) policies in the Department of Education, $59m on hotel rooms for migrants in New York, $42m on a project for social and behavioural change in Uganda, £24m “for an Arab Sesame Street” and $8m “for making mice transgender”.

But questions have been raised about whether the department has actually saved taxpayers as much money as suggested.

Meanwhile, Mr Musk – who famously brought his son X Æ A-12 to the Oval Office – has expressed frustration about resistance to his ideas, and clashed with other senior members of the Trump administration.

He claimed DOGE had been blamed for cuts that had nothing to do with his department.

“What we found was happening was if there were any cuts anywhere, people would assume that was done by DOGE,” he explained.

“We essentially became the ‘DOGE’ boogie man.”

It comes after Mr Musk’s father, Errol Musk, speaking to Gillian Joseph on The World earlier this week, insisted there had been “no rift between Elon and Donald Trump”.

As a “special government employee”, US law allowed Mr Musk to serve for 130 days, which would have ended around Friday.

He announced he was leaving in a post on X, in which he said: “I would like to thank President Donald Trump for the opportunity to reduce wasteful spending.”