Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
This has weakened Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
US
Benjamin Netanyahu nominates Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize – as Gaza ceasefire talks continue
Israel’s prime minister has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Benjamin Netanyahu made the announcement at a White House dinner, handing over the letter for the US president to read.
“Coming from you in particular, this is very meaningful,” Mr Trump said.
The Israeli leader said Mr Trump was “forging peace as we speak, and one country and one region after the other”.
Organisers award the prize to the person who does the most for “fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses”.
Benjamin Netanyahu handed Donald Trump the Nobel nomination letter. Pic: AP
Mr Trump took credit for stopping Iran and Israel‘s “12-day war” last month, announcing it with fanfare on Truth Social, and the ceasefire has so far held.
The president has claimed US strikes obliterated Iran’s purported nuclear weapons programme – and that the country now wants to restart negotiations.
“We have scheduled Iran talks, and they want to,” Mr Trump told reporters on Monday. “They want to talk.”
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Iran hasn’t confirmed the move, but its president told US broadcaster Tucker Carlson he believes his country can resolve differences with the US through dialogue.
Masoud Pezeshkian also said Iran would be willing to resume cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
However, he said full access to nuclear sites wasn’t yet possible as US strikes had damaged them so badly.
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Netanyahu arrives in US for ceasefire talks
Away from Iran, fighting continues in Gaza and Ukraine.
Mr Trump famously boasted before his second stint in the White House that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours.
The reality has been very different – with Ukraine saying last week that Russia unleashed the heaviest aerial attack of the war so far.
Critics have also claimed Vladimir Putin is “playing” his US counterpart and that he has no intention of agreeing a ceasefire.
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Russia bombards Ukraine with drones and missiles
However, Mr Trump could try to take credit for progress in Gaza if – as he’s suggested – an agreement on a 60-day ceasefire is done this week.
Indirect negotiations with Hamas are taking place that could lead to the release of some of the remaining 50 Israeli hostages and a surge in aid to Gaza.
The White House said Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is travelling to Qatar this week to try to seal the agreement.
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Whether a temporary pause could open a path to a lasting peace remains uncertain, with the two sides’ criteria for peace still far apart.
Mr Netanyahu has said Hamas must surrender, disarm and leave Gaza – something it refuses to do.
He also told reporters on Monday that the US and Israel were working with other countries who would give Palestinians “a better future” – and indicated those in Gaza could move elsewhere.
“If people want to stay, they can stay, but if they want to leave, they should be able to leave,” he added.
“We’ve had great cooperation from… surrounding countries, great cooperation from every single one of them. So something good will happen,” Mr Trump said.
The president was widely criticised earlier this year when he suggested resettling Gaza’s population to countries such as Jordan and Egypt and turning it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
Human rights groups said the plan amounted to ethnic cleansing and most Gazans said they would never consider leaving.
At least 104 people have died in the flash floods that have left a trail of destruction across Texas.
Kerr County Sheriff’s Office said the number of bodies found in the area had risen from 75 to 84 – including 56 adults and 28 children.
The have been seven fatalities in Travis County, six in Kendall County, four in Burnet County, two in Williamson County and one in Tom Green County.
Earlier, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that “the situation on the ground remains dangerous” and that there “could be additional public safety threats with additional incoming heavy rain”.
A view inside a cabin at Camp Mystic after the flooding. Pic: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
The floods that first struck on Friday have wreaked havoc and left people in a state of grief – with 27 of the confirmed deaths having taken place at a girls’ summer camp in Kerr County.
Among those killed at Camp Mystic were Renee Smajstrla and Sarah Marsh, both eight, Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine, and the camp’s director Richard Eastland.
A photo has now emerged showing the inside of the camp on Saturday after the waters hit.
At least 41 people are still missing in the state – including 10 girls from Camp Mystic.
Renee Smajstrla, eight, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
Sarah Marsh, eight, died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
In her news conference, Ms Leavitt criticised people who have claimed the Trump administration’s cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) have played a role in the worsening the disaster.
It comes after Texas officials criticised the NWS by claiming it failed to warn the public about the impending danger.
Meanwhile, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer asked the Department of Commerce’s acting inspector general on Monday to probe whether staffing vacancies at the NWS’s San Antonio office contributed to “delays, gaps, or diminished accuracy” in forecasting the flooding.
The NWS did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Mr Schumer’s letter, but earlier defended its forecasting and emergency management.
Flooding near Kerville, Texas. Pic: US Coast Guard/AP
Ms Leavitt has told reporters that claims Mr Trump was responsible for any issues related to the flash floods response were “depraved and despicable”.
“It is not [a political game], it is a national tragedy,” she said.
The press secretary also claimed, in relation to some NWS offices being reportedly understaffed, that one place actually had “too many people”.
“Any person who has deliberately lied about the facts around the catastrophic event, you should be deeply ashamed,” she said.
Rescuers at Camp Mystic along the Guadalupe River in Texas after a flash flood swept through the area. Pic: AP
Members from Texas Game Wardens of the Law Enforcement Division works following flash flooding, in Kerrville, Texas. Pic: Reuters
She also said that Mr Trump was going to visit Texas “later in the week”.
Previously, Mr Trump said it was likely he would visit on Friday.
Car is wedged in the ground following deadly floods in Texas
Karoline Leavitt in the press briefing room
Texas Senator Ted Cruz spoke at a news conference and said: “Texas is grieving right now, the pain, the shock of what has transpired these last few days has broken the heart of our state.
“Those numbers [the number of dead] are continuing to go up… that’s every parent’s nightmare, every mum and dad.”
A view inside a cabin at Camp Mystic after the flooding. Pic: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
Damaged vehicles and debris are seen roped off near the banks of the Guadalupe River after flooding in Ingram, Texas. Pic: AP
He said he had picked up his own daughter from a camp in the area last week.
Mr Cruz added: “You know what I’d do? What I did when this happened? Just go hug your kids.
“Because I’ve got to tell you, I hugged my girls with tears in my eyes.”
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Texas flooding: Aerial footage of rescues
Dalton Rice, the city manager of Kerrville in Kerr County, was asked whether evacuation warnings could have been issued earlier.
He said: “It’s very tough to make those calls because we also don’t want to cry wolf.
“You know, we want to make sure that we activated [it] at the right time.”
He added: “We had first responders getting swept away, responding to the first areas of rainfall. That’s how quick it happened.
“They were driving to these areas and one of them got swept off the road.”
Videos and satellite imagery show how quickly Donald Trump’s detention centre in Florida has been constructed – as experts suggest the design of the site is flawed and will compromise the safety of people being held there.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team has verified footage posted on social media that shows water covering the ground near electricity cables during a storm as the first detainees were due to arrive.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM), run by Governor Ron DeSantis, posted on X that detainees were at the site on 3 July just before 1pm local time (6pm UK time).
Donald Trump held a tour of the facility on 1 July that took journalists around “Alligator Alcatraz”. Its name is a reference to both the local reptile population and the former maximum-security Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary in San Francisco Bay, California.
The tour showed the rapid construction of the centre, designed to accommodate up to 3,000 detainees. The purpose of the site is to house individuals detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
James Uthmeier, Florida’s attorney general, posted on X: “And in just a week, Alligator Alcatraz was built.”
Political commentator Benny Johnson, who was on the tour, praised the eight-day turnaround. “I don’t think anyone realises how impressive Alligator Alcatraz is,” he said.
Amid those positive comments, videos emerged highlighting flooding in the centre, with electricity cables covered with water on the day of the tour.
The flooding was said to have been caused by a small storm. However, the state department claims the structures and tents can withstand category two hurricanes, reaching 110mph winds.
FDEM spokesperson Stephanie Hartman wrote in a statement that “vendors had tightened any seams at the base of the structures that allowed water to come in during the storm”. She described the water intrusion as minimal.
Steff Gaulter, a Sky News meteorologist, said: “In the last 10 years, we’ve seen 13 hurricanes that have hit Florida. Seven of them have been category three or higher.
“As well as needing to know how strong these storms are as they come, it’s also very unpredictable, their track can change at the last minute.”
The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and the Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) have said structures in risk category two – which Alligator Alcatraz falls under – need to withstand 121mph wind gusts.
If the housing tents exceed 300 occupants per tent, the guidelines go up to 167mph.
Ms Gaulter explained: “You don’t necessarily need a hurricane in order to see a gust of wind over 100mph. In the lowest category of hurricane, category one, the range of winds would be between 74mph and 95mph. But even in that category, you can easily get a gust of wind up to 120mph.”
Dr Patrick McSharry, Professor at Carnegie Mellon University and former head of catastrophe risk financing at Oxford University, told Sky News that in a hurricane “there’s no way that a tent is going to be in any way something that you would advise someone to be in”.
“It’s more the case of having a plan in place that can be mobilised really fast to get people out of that dangerous situation.”
The site is also located in a hurricane-prone region as defined by ASCE.
Discussing building regulations, Dr McSharry said: “We’re dealing here potentially with human lives so it’s an even more sensitive calculation I think that needs to be made.”
The blue pin marks Alligator Alcatraz. The key shows average wind speeds. Credit: ASCE.
Sky News put these concerns to Ron DeSantis and the Florida state department, but did not receive responses.
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Sky News: “Alligator Alcatraz is a state-of-the-art facility that will play a critical role in fulfilling the president’s promise to get the worst criminal illegal aliens out of America as fast as possible.
“President Trump is grateful to partner with [Homeland] Secretary [Kristi] Noem and Ron DeSantis on this important project.”
Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows the rapid construction of the centre, which was formerly Dade-Collier Training Airport.
Five days after the centre was announced by Florida’s attorney general James Uthmeier, more than 60 new trailers can be seen on the right-hand side of the runway.
Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News also shows that from 24 June to the opening date on 1 July, more than seven large housing tents were put up at the site.
Satellite imagery showing the site on 24 June. Credit: Maxar
An aerial photo of the site on 1 July. Credit: AP
The site is reportedly set to open with 3,000 beds, expanding to 5,000 by early July.
It is also reported that the site will cost an estimated $450m (£330m) per year to operate, with a bed costing $245 (£180) per day.
The bill is reported to be covered by the state of Florida, which plans to get money back from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
Tessa Petit, director of the Florida Immigrant Coalition, told Sky News: “It was constructed too [quickly]. This is a sign that we’re seeing a disaster [waiting to] happen as we look at it.
“Usual detention centres come up with, you know, their bricks and mortar, right? This is not bricks and mortar. This is just tents and mobile homes that are assembled on an airstrip.”
“There’s a detention of immigrants in a place that has been in the past ravaged by hurricanes and we’re getting into hurricane season,” Ms Petit added.
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She is concerned that medical support and sanitary provisions, like a sewage system, will not have been properly installed.
“You can’t build a sewage system that can sustain 3,000 people in eight days. You can’t dig in the Everglades. So, what are going be the additional sanitary conditions?” she said.
There are also sustainability concerns about the site.
The Centre for Biological Diversity has filed a lawsuit in US District Court to protect the Florida Everglades. They state it is “a reckless plan to build a massive detention centre for people caught in immigration raids”.
Tania Galloni, an attorney working with the Centre for Biological Diversity, stated the proposed plan “has not undergone the environmental review required by federal law, and the public has had no chance to provide feedback”.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
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