Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
This has weakened Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
There are 161 people still missing in Texas in the aftermath of last weekend’s deadly flash floods, the state’s governor has said.
Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, governor Gregg Abbot said the number of missing had risen markedly.
He said among the missing were five children and one counsellor from Camp Mystic – where at least 27 people were killed in the flash flooding.
At least 109 people are confirmed to have died in the floods, which took place on the 4 July weekend, but this figure has been steadily climbing ever since.
People comforted each other in Kerville. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
The bulk of deaths, and the main search for additional bodies, have been concentrated in Kerr County and the city of Kerrville.
The area was transformed into a disaster zone when torrential rains struck the region early last Friday, unleashing deadly flooding along the Guadalupe River.
Travis County, Kendall County, Burnett County, Williamson County, and Tom Green County were also hit.
Mr Abbot said many of those who were unaccounted for were in the Texas Hill Country area, but had not registered at a camp or hotel, posing further challenges for authorities.
Camp Mystic
Mr Abbot planned to make another visit to Camp Mystic.
The century-old all-girls Christian summer camp was badly hit by the flash floods, with at least 27 campers and counsellors dying.
Hanna Lawrence, left, and Rebecca Lawrence, right. Pic: John Lawrence/AP
Lila Bonner (L) and Eloise Peck both died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
Chloe Childress. Pic: Debra Alexander Photography via AP
Some of the victims include Hanna and Rebecca Lawrence, both eight, Chloe Childress, 19, who was among the counsellors at Camp Mystic when the flood hit, and Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine.
There were scenes of devastation at the camp as the flood water receded.
Outside the cabins where the girls had slept, mud-splattered blankets and pillows were scattered.
Also in the debris were pink, purple and light blue luggage, decorated with stickers.
A view inside a cabin at Camp Mystic after the flooding. Pic: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
Camper’s belongings lie on the ground following flooding on the Guadalupe River, at Camp Mystic.
Pic: Reuters
‘Everything looked flooded and broken’
One of the campers, 10-year-old Lucy Kennedy, told Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, that she woke up to the sound of thunder at around midnight before the floods struck.
“I couldn’t go back to sleep,” she said. “I just had a feeling that something really bad was about to happen.”
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She said the girls at the camp were told to grab blankets, pillows and water bottles and line up single file as the floodwater rose, before getting airlifted to safety.
Wynne Kennedy, Lucy’s mother, added: “When I saw her, she was wrapped up in a blanket, had a teddy bear.
“We just held each other tight, and I held her all night.”
Their home in Kerrville was also destroyed by the flash floods.
Lucy Kennedy, 10 who was rescued from Camp Mystic, and her mother Wynne. Pic: NBC
Political row
Meanwhile, a political row has unfolded parallel to the recovery efforts, with some questioning whether local authorities sent out warnings and alerts early enough.
Similarly, Democrats have criticised Donald Trump over cuts his Elon Musk-launched Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has made to the National Weather Service – but it isn’t clear whether these actually made any difference.
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Wall of water
The flash floods erupted before daybreak on Friday, after massive amounts of rainfall caused the Guadalupe River to rise by eight metres in less than an hour.
The wall of water overwhelmed cabins, tents and trails along the river’s edge.
Some survivors were found clinging to trees.
Some of the campers had to swim out of their cabin windows to get to safety, while others clung to rope to make it to higher ground.
The date for Sean “Diddy” Combs’s sentencing hearing has been confirmed.
Following his high-profile trial, the hip-hop mogul was found guilty of two counts of transportation for prostitution by jurors in Manhattan, New York, last week – but was cleared of sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.
Defence lawyers argued Combs, who has been in prison in Brooklyn since his arrest in September last year, should be bailed ahead of sentencing given the not guilty verdicts for the more serious charges, but Judge Arun Subramanian denied this – citing, among other things, the rapper’s own admissions of previous violent behaviour.
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs in court after the verdict was delivered. Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg
The charges of sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy carried a potential life sentence. Combs still faces up to 20 years in prison for the prostitution-related offences, but is not expected to receive the maximum punishment.
After the verdict was delivered, the judge scheduled the sentencing hearing for 3 October. At a remote follow-up conference on Tuesday, with agreement from the defence and prosecution, the judge approved the date.
Combs joined the call but did not make any comment.
Any sentence will include credit for time already served – which will be just over a year by the time the hearing takes place.
During his trial, Combs was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura.
Jurors found the allegations did not amount to sex-trafficking or racketeering, or running a criminal enterprise – but they did find him guilty of transporting Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane” for prostitution offences around the US, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.
Despite the guilty verdict on those charges, the 55-year-old’s team described it as “the victory of all victories”.
Read more:
How the trial unfolded
The rise and fall of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs
In an interview over the weekend, defence lawyer Marc Agnifilo said Combs had received a standing ovation from fellow inmates when he returned to jail after being acquitted of the more serious charges.
“They all said, ‘We never get to see anyone who beats the government’,” he said.
Ahead of sentencing, Combs’s lawyers will file their recommendations by 19 September, with prosecutors likely to follow a week later.
Prosecutors previously said the rapper could face about four to five years in prison under federal sentencing guidelines, while the defence has suggested a two-year sentence.
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