Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion

Published

3 years ago

March 20, 2023

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At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.

It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.

Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.

A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.

The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.

The falsehoods and delusions that led to war

America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.

The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.

The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.

Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.

Iraq fell apart under occupation. The US disbanded the Ba’ath party and sents its army home. In the vacuum sectarian extremists thrived. The war had been fought to neutralise the threat posed by Al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11.

The opposite happened and even more extreme groups were spawned launching unprecedented campaigns of terror against occupiers and civilians alike. From the failed states of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State was born – an organisation that for years wrenched swathes of territory from both countries and plumbed new depths of terror and depravity.

For America, the enduring impact of the war and occupation has been a weakening of Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.

A lasting impact on US foreign policy

The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.

That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.

The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.

Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.

Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.

The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.

And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.

Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back

In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.

Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.

It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.

Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.

That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.

Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.

World

Fierce battle for frontline towns where Ukraine’s soldiers are surrounded

Published

10 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Fierce battle for frontline towns where Ukraine's soldiers are surrounded

Footage geolocated by Sky News showed Russian soldiers walking through the Shakhtarskyi neighbourhood on the outskirts of Pokrovsk on Thursday.

The video sheds light on the situation in this key frontline area, as Russian forces slowly encroach on Myrnohrad, the satellite town to Pokrovsk, and one of its last remaining outposts.

Videos geolocated by Sky News show fighting intensifying in recent weeks, as Russian forces attempt to gain control of the towns and their network of road and rail intersections.

Gaining control here would give Russia a base from which to access key cities further north that form part of Ukraine’s “fortress belt”.

Russian forces are advancing from all directions, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), with only one small opening to the northwest of Myrnohrad remaining.

Estimated to be only 3km wide by military experts, this withdrawal corridor is patrolled by Russian drone units which monitor the area for moving vehicles and those who may attempt to leave on foot.

Russian forces have been advancing on Myrnohrad since late October.

Video from a Ukrainian unit in Myrnohad, posted on 29 October, shows a Russian vehicle attempting to enter the town from the northeast. The tank is attacked and soldiers attempting to enter on foot are targeted.

Video posted on 3 November shows Russian forces on the ground in the south of the town.

By 8 November, Russian strikes begin to pummel the northeast of Myrnohrad, the location of many of the town’s high-rise buildings, at that time, held by Ukrainian forces.

George Barros, Russia Team & Geospatial Intelligence Team Lead at ISW, told Sky News that Russian strategy in Pokrovsk has been to erode Ukrainian logistical capacity using drones and artillery over the course of several months.

“After denying supply lines and degrading the frontline forces by essentially cutting them off from behind and starving them out in their positions, then the Russians move forward with their infantry and frontal assaults,” Barros explained.

Capture the flag

For a brief period, it looked as though Russian forces had captured Myrnohrad.

Videos posted on 13 November appeared to show a Russian flag flying over the Myrnohrad mine.

However, video posted the following day showed a Ukrainian drone shooting it down.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to fight for control of Myrnohrad, with videos posted on the 19 and 20 November showing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the town, and Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian forces on foot.

While the exact numbers of Russian and Ukrainian forces in the area remains unclear, reports indicate that three key Russian units are active in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and are advancing on the towns from the north and south.

A number of Ukrainian units remain inside the towns, including the 145th Assault regiment and the 32nd, 35th, 38th and 155th Brigades. Reports indicate that more Ukrainian units have been moved into surrounding areas to hold the withdrawal corridor open.

Sky News reached out to the Ukrainian brigades still in Myrnohrad, but they declined to comment, citing military regulations.

Strategic significance

Natia Seskuria, associate international security fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), explained that the area is important for the Ukrainians to keep and the Russians to take because of its strategic position.

“Situated at a major road and rail intersection in Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk has functioned as a central artery for moving troops, equipment, and supplies to Ukrainian units deployed along the surrounding front.”

Russia “would gain a platform to redirect its offensive efforts toward Ukraine’s principal defensive urban centres… including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk,” Seskuria said.

Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in Pokrovsk have fought intensely and at close quarters over the last month.

In late October US-made Black Hawk helicopters containing specialist troops directed by Ukrainian military intelligence entered Pokrovsk to try to keep the town.

But as Russian troops advance, Myrnohrad is becoming the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in the area.

Uncertain future

At least up until 12 November, there were still civilians living in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, despite strikes on buildings in both cities.

A post made on that day by the Donetsk state regional administration estimated 1,200 people remain living in Pokrovsk and 900 in Myrnohrad.

Evacuation is only possible with the help of the military or police, and it is not clear how many have evacuated in the 11 days since.

Barros of ISW says gaining Pokrovsk would increase Russia’s leverage at the negotiating table.

“If the Russians can successfully convince enough international leaders that, okay, the Russians took Pokrovsk, they’re going to take the next thing, and they’re going take the thing, so now let’s negotiate, then that is a strategic victory for the Russians.”

Production by Michelle Inez Simon, Visual Investigations Producer.

The Data x Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

World

Torrential rain triggers deadly flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Published

10 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Torrential rain triggers deadly flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Torrential rain, flooding and landslides has left more than 100 people dead or missing in Vietnam.

Rainfall has exceeded 74.8in (1.9 metres) in some parts of central Vietnam over the past week.

The region is a major coffee production belt and home to popular beaches, but it is also prone to storms and floods.

Fatalities have been reported in Dak Lak province and the neighbouring Khanh Hoa province.

Footage has been released by local police of a dramatic rescue, involving a drone which airlifted a stranded man to safety from an island in the middle of the Serepok River, Dak Lak province.

The government estimates the flooding has cost the economy around 8.98 trillion dong (£260m).

More than 235,000 houses were flooded and nearly 80,000 hectares of crops were damaged, Vietnam’s disaster agency said.

On Thursday, VietnamNet newspaper said that a suspension bridge on Da Nhim River in Lam Dong province had been swept away.

Video footage posted online showed the bridge being swallowed by the river in just a few seconds.

Naval forces have been deployed to help stranded citizens in Khanh Hoa, the Vietnam News Agency reported, adding that floodwaters had reached record highs in many areas.

Photos shared in state media reports showed residents, including children, sitting on the roofs of flooded houses in Khanh Hoa, Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces.

A seven-year-old girl was rescued late on Wednesday in Da Lat, the capital of Lam Dong province, after being buried by a landslide, the Nhan Dan newspaper reported.

The landslide, triggered by heavy rain, knocked down and buried part of the house where the girl was staying.

She was pulled out after an hour and a half and was taken to hospital with a broken leg, according to the report.

World

Several airlines cancel Venezuela flights after ‘hazardous situation’ warning

Published

10 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Several airlines cancel Venezuela flights after 'hazardous situation' warning

Three international airlines have cancelled flights departing from Venezuela after a “potentially hazardous situation” warning.

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Saturday issued an alert to airlines flying over the country, citing the “worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela“.

The US is poised to launch a new phase of operations related to the South American nation in the coming days, four US officials said.

The exact timing or scope of the operations, as well as whether President Donald Trump has made the final decision to act, have not yet been established.

Brazil’s Gol, Colombia’s Avianca and TAP Air Portugal cancelled their flights from the capital, Caracas, in north Venezuela, on Saturday, according to Flightradar24 and the official website of Simon Bolivar Maiquetia International Airport.

TAP Air Portugal confirmed it cancelled flights scheduled for Saturday and next Tuesday.

“This decision follows information issued by the United States aviation authorities, which indicates that safety conditions in Venezuelan airspace are not guaranteed,” the airline said.

The Trump administration has been considering Venezuela-related options to tackle what it has portrayed as President Nicolas Maduro’s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans.

Venezuela’s president has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade.

Mr Maduro, who is celebrating his 63rd birthday on Sunday and has been in power since 2013, has claimed Mr Trump is looking to oust him and that Venezuelan citizens and the military will rally against any such attempt.

Aeronautica Civil de Colombia said in a statement there were “potential risks” of flying in the Maiquetia area “due to the deterioration of security conditions and increased military activity in the region”.

Spain’s Iberia also said it was cancelling its flights to Caracas from Monday until further notice.

Reports of looming action have been growing in recent weeks as the US military has deployed forces to the Caribbean, amid heightened tensions with Venezuela. The Pentagon referred questions to the White House and the CIA declined to comment.

There has been a huge US military build-up in the region, including the US Navy’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, at least eight other warships, and F-35 aircraft.

The build-up in the Caribbean has been rumbling on for months, and Mr Trump has authorised covert CIA operations in Venezuela.

The US plans on Monday to designate the Cartel de los Soles, a Venezuela-based alleged criminal group, a foreign terrorist organisation for what the US sees as its role in importing illegal drugs into America, officials said.