Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
Iraq fell apart under occupation. The US disbanded the Ba’ath party and sents its army home. In the vacuum sectarian extremists thrived. The war had been fought to neutralise the threat posed by Al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11.
The opposite happened and even more extreme groups were spawned launching unprecedented campaigns of terror against occupiers and civilians alike. From the failed states of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State was born – an organisation that for years wrenched swathes of territory from both countries and plumbed new depths of terror and depravity.
For America, the enduring impact of the war and occupation has been a weakening of Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.
The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.
On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”
At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.
Benjamin Netanyahu, left, with Donald Trump during a previous meeting. Pic: Reuters
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.
The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.
An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.
She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.
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The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.
An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.
Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.
World
Brutal murder on ‘date’ exposes robbery gang suspected of targeting dozens of women in South Africa
Thirty-year-old Olorato Mongale made sure to take all the measures necessary for a safe first date in South Africa’s biggest city, Johannesburg.
She had agreed to meet ‘John’ in the daytime. She sent her friends her phone location after leaving her house and promptly texted them “on the road” at 2.47pm.
They replied “enjoy!”, hoping she would find love.
An hour later, their friend had gone silent and her phone location was showing up in dangerous areas of the city.
A search party of seven friends set off to trace Olorato’s digital footsteps.
It’s believed Olorato’s killers were part of a gang robbing young women at gunpoint
“It didn’t make sense. Where is she? Why is she missing?” says Karabo Mokoena, as we drove to the locations involved in their search.
“Every place we went to looked dodgier and dodgier. It made me panic – I was very scared.”
After finding her bag on a pile of bricks off the side of a main road, they filed a missing person report at a police station.
“I thought there was no way we were not going to find her. We did end up finding her but not in the way we would have hoped,” says Karabo.
Olorato’s body had been dumped at the dirt entrance of a random house less than 100m from where her friends were searching into the night.
Her face was swollen and her eyes black-blue from violent impact. Her top was ripped open to expose her breasts.
Police told Sky News that her post-mortem showed signs of blunt force trauma. She was likely beaten to death.
Olorato’s body was dumped outside this gate – she was likely beaten to death
“It was like I was dreaming, seeing her body like that with those bruises and blood everywhere,” says Olorato’s mother, Keabetswe Poppy Mongale, describing the moment she had to identify her only child at the morgue.
“I don’t think what I saw will ever go away,” she adds.
“It was very painful. I don’t wish that on any parent because my beautiful little girl looked different because someone chose to do that to her.”
Olorato’s mother says the image of her daughter in the morgue will never go away
CCTV from the driveway of Olorato’s building shows the last time she was seen alive, leaving her home to meet ‘John’.
In the video, she walks towards a white Volkswagen Polo and hesitates as she reaches the left back door. John had come with a friend.
Four days after Olorato was killed, police found the car in a different province with traces of her blood splattered across the back seat.
CCTV showed Olorato walking to a car for what she thought was a date
One suspect was shot dead but the second man is still on the run
Philangenkosi Sibongokuhle Makanya – ‘John’ – was shot dead by police in KwaZulu-Natal shortly after they found the vehicle.
The second man in the car, Bongani Mthimkhulu, is still on the run.
The two men have since been identified as part of a dangerous criminal syndicate that lure young women out on dates and rob them at gunpoint.
“Within the four days, the investigating officers received 94 calls from women who were raising concerns and identifying the suspects as those they once met,” South African Police Service deputy national commissioner Lieutenant General Tebello Mosikili told Sky News.
“It was unfortunate about Olorato, but others were released after being robbed.”
Olorato’s friends say she ‘ticked all the boxes when it came to being careful’
A 24-year-old student who survived an armed robbery at the hands of Olorato’s suspected killers says she was happy to see Philangenkosi killed but she’s still scared for her life.
“As women, we are not even safe anymore – we can’t even walk freely,” she says.
“The moment you leave your house you wonder if you will make it back alive. I don’t feel comfortable walking around the street. I leave the house and then turn back.
“Even when I’m home, I still don’t feel safe and always want to keep myself locked indoors,” she says with a shaky voice – choosing to remain anonymous.
After meeting other victims of the syndicate, she was shocked to hear details of almost identical abductions.
“This other girl was surprised because we went through the exact same situation. They also approached her with the same tactic – let me take you out to lunch to get to know you – only for her to be robbed.”
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South Africa has one of the highest femicide rates in the world – an average 15 women are killed a day, many by their intimate partners.
According to police statistics, more than 5,500 women were murdered in South Africa last year. An increase of 33.8% compared with the previous year.
“South Africa has six times the average rate of femicide – hundreds of women have already been killed since Olorato’s murder,” says Cameron Kasambala from Women for Change.
The advocacy group raises awareness of rising cases of femicide and gender-based violence across South Africa.
Campaigner Cameron Kasambala says many femicide cases take a long time to be resolved
In the hours after her murder, Olorato’s friends contacted Women for Change to share her missing poster after receiving little immediate help from the local police station.
“I think her friends were the real heroes in that moment,” says Cameron.
“Two police stations that were 10 minutes apart, one finds a body and one has a missing case, don’t make a connection for hours. It’s not the most reassuring police work. And if the friends had not come forward, how long would it have taken?
“Unfortunately, Olorato’s case is an exception. Most cases are not handled that quickly.”
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Olorato’s friends say she would be ‘proud to know that her name has not gone in vain’
Olorato’s friends are still contending with the violence of her death – what it means for their daily lives and how they navigate their safety as women in South Africa.
“It is difficult to process and difficult to believe. This is somebody who ticked all the boxes when it came to being careful – being meticulous, checking her surroundings and leaving clues,” says Olorato’s friend, Koketso Sejosengoe.
“It shows it can happen to anybody no matter how safe you are. It is happening to the average girl. They are being targeted. These men know what they are doing and who they are looking for.”
“In the purest sense, Olorato wanted women to be safe and wanted women to be protected,” adds Koketso.
“I think she would be very proud to know that her name has not gone in vain and that her death is standing for something – that there will be change that comes with this.”
Major heatwaves across southern Europe have left Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece in sweltering conditions of more than 40C (104F).
Two-thirds of Portugal was on high alert for extreme heat and risk of wildfires on Sunday, with temperatures in Lisbon expected to exceed 42C (107F).
In parts of southern Spain, temperatures are well above average, with 42C also expected in Seville and other cities.
The country’s meteorological service says June is likely to be the hottest Spain has experienced since records began.
In several Italian regions, including Lazio, Tuscany, Calabria, Puglia, and Umbria, outdoor work was banned during peak hours of sun on Sunday, with trade unions pushing for the measures to be extended and rolled out nationwide.
Twenty-one out of 27 cities were under the highest possible heat alert, including Rome, Milan, and Naples.
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Greece has already been plagued by wildfires this summer, with one breaking out south of Athens on Thursday, and several on the island of Chios last Sunday.
Near Athens, authorities deployed 130 firefighters, 12 helicopters, and 12 planes, with 40 people evacuated from the highest-risk areas.
A woman was arrested on suspicion of unintentional arson after wildfires spread across brush and pastureland for three days on Chios.
Flames rise above Thymari, near Athens, after wildfires broke out on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Tourists battle scorching temperatures at the Parthenon in Greece on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Scientists link increasing frequencies of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, wildfires, and storms to climate change.
In France and Germany, at least three people died amid stormy conditions.
A ridge of high pressure above central and western Europe is driving the scorching conditions, says Sky News meteorologist Chris England.
Hotter-than-normal sea temperatures, dry land, and surface winds are also partly to blame, he added.
Tourists in Retiro Park in Madrid on Saturday. Pic: AP
Locals fan themselves in Lisbon on Saturday. Pic: AP
UK heatwave also likely
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UK heatwaves explained
The UK is halfway through a four-day amber heat health alert, with temperatures expected to peak in the mid-30s (86F) on Tuesday.
Heat health alerts are not public weather warnings – but are instead designed to prepare health and social care bodies for the potential impact on their infrastructure and vulnerable groups.
Heatwave thresholds are likely to be met on Monday and Tuesday, which vary between 28C (82F) in the south of England and 25C (77F) across the rest of the country.
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