Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
Iraq fell apart under occupation. The US disbanded the Ba’ath party and sents its army home. In the vacuum sectarian extremists thrived. The war had been fought to neutralise the threat posed by Al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11.
The opposite happened and even more extreme groups were spawned launching unprecedented campaigns of terror against occupiers and civilians alike. From the failed states of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State was born – an organisation that for years wrenched swathes of territory from both countries and plumbed new depths of terror and depravity.
For America, the enduring impact of the war and occupation has been a weakening of Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
World
Taliban reports sharp rise in death toll following earthquake in eastern Afghanistan, as aid agencies issue warning
The number of people killed following a deadly earthquake in eastern Afghanistan has risen sharply to 2,205, according to the Taliban government.
The increase, from more than 1,400 deaths reported on Tuesday, coincides with rescuers being hampered by harsh weather and rugged terrain, while aid agencies warned of dwindling resources.
The 6.0 magnitude quake struck several provinces in a mountainous and remote area of the country near the Pakistan border, at around 11.47pm (8.17pm UK time) on Sunday.
Afghanistan’s deadliest earthquake in years levelled villages, destroying thousands of homes, and trapping people under rubble. At least 3,640 people have been injured.
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Afghans search for survivors after earthquake
The majority of casualties have been in Kunar, where many live in steep river valleys separated by high mountains.
Taliban spokesman Hamdullah Fitrat said rescue and search efforts were continuing: “Tents have been set up for people, and the delivery of first aid and emergency supplies is ongoing.”
More than 6,700 homes have been destroyed, authorities have said.
But while officials have deployed helicopters and airdropped army commandos to help survivors, the rough terrain is hindering relief efforts.
Tough terrain is hindering relief efforts. Pic: Reuters
Aid workers have reported walking for hours to reach villages cut off by landslides and rockfall.
Afghanistan was already struggling with the impact of climate change, particularly drought, a weak economy and the return of some two million Afghans from neighbouring countries.
Sunday’s earthquake is the third to devastate the country since the Taliban seized power in 2021.
Livestock are left to shelter inside a damaged house. Pic: Reuters
On Wednesday, the defence ministry said the Afghan air force moved more than 1,900 people in 155 flights over two days, and delivered 10,000kg of supplies across the region.
The UK has pledged £1m in emergency funding to be split between humanitarian agencies instead of the Taliban government, which the UK does not recognise.
Injured Afghans have been evacuated to a hospital in Jalalabad. Pic: AP
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Humanitarian needs are “vast and growing rapidly”, said the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies.
“Up to 84,000 people are directly and indirectly affected, with thousands displaced,” it added.
In some of the worst-affected villages in Kunar province, two in three people had been killed or injured, while 98% of buildings were either destroyed or damaged by the tremors, according to an assessment by British-based charity Islamic Relief Worldwide.
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The Norwegian Refugee Council said it had fewer than 450 staff in Afghanistan, no emergency stock and an urgent need for funds.
“We have only $100,000 (£74,500) available to support emergency response efforts. This leaves an immediate funding gap of $1.9 million (£1.42m),” said Maisam Shafiey, from the humanitarian organisation.
China put on a show of military strength and diplomatic pulling power in Beijing this week that should worry us all.
At the heart of it was one all-powerful man.
Xi Jinping is emerging as the emperor of a rising China bent on reshaping the world in its image.
He wears the garb of his communist forebears, but he is much more than just another heir to Chairman Mao.
Xi increasingly has more in common with China’s imperial past.
He has disposed of rivals and term-limit rules, making him potentially ruler for life.
Xi believes it is China’s destiny to return to its rightful place as the centre of the world. A new world order dominated by China is approaching he believes, hastened by the Trump administration’s willingness to dismantle the current Pax Americana and western disarray over Ukraine.
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The Chinese weapons that will worry America
China has a right to assert itself more robustly on the world stage, of course, but it’s the manner of that assertion and the risks of collision with the West that should give cause for concern.
Xi has ruthlessly crushed dissent at home with quasi genocidal repression in Xinjiang, a cultural holocaust in Tibet and brutal suppression of human rights in Hong Kong.
Next in his sights is Taiwan. It is claimed by the Chinese communists as part of their One China project.
That opens up one fault line between Xi’s rising China and Western nations.
China’s more and more open support of Putin’s war in Ukraine is of course another.
Western impotence and failure to bring enough pressure on Russia to end the conflict has allowed it to metastasize into a much bigger one.
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The three autocrat amigos in Beijing on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
On one side in the East, authoritarian governments lining up to support Russia. And on the other, democratic countries supporting Ukraine.
This week’s jamboree of autocrats in Beijing seems to have tipped things more in their favour. Good news for regimes using Orwellian surveillance, censorship, and repression to control their people and keep a grip on power.
Bad news for the rest of us who prefer a future organised around democracy, freedom, and the rule of law.
Dictators rejoice. Democrats beware.
World
‘At night we don’t sleep’: How a West Bank family are facing harassment by young Israeli settlers
The further we go, the rougher the terrain becomes, jolting the car as we drive along a mountain track strewn with rocks.
And then we round a corner and there is a sleeping dog, a circle of chairs and two women smiling and beckoning us to follow them.
This is Fatima and her mother-in-law, Fadda. They live in a makeshift camp perched on a rocky ledge.
Fatima (left) and Fadda say they are afraid their homes could be set alight
Behind their tent is a cave, in which there are chickens and a bed. In front of it is the path where we now stand, and then a precipice that looks down upon a ravine.
They invite us into a tent to talk. Sweet tea is brought out, and so is the story of how their home was demolished, their car stolen, their peace destroyed and why they now have to hide their flock of sheep.
But before all that, Fatima takes us out and points at a ridge behind their camp.
We can see a small black structure, just visible against the dark rock. “That is where they are,” she says. “The settlers come down from there.”
The family say settlers are constantly coming to their camp home to harass them
Every day, people come down to her home. Unwelcome visitors.
“We’d be baking bread, and they would come, lay out their mattresses and just sit there. When we told them to leave, they’d return with more settlers and an armed soldier.”
And the soldier, always, would be on the side of the settlers.
“At night we don’t sleep,” says Fadda, smiling through the pain.
“We stay awake waiting for the settlers. Four or five of them come in their cars each night, sometimes on motorcycles, right up to our doorstep to terrify the children.
“We sit through the night, afraid they’ll set fire to our homes and belongings, trying to force us to flee with our kids.”
We see videos, shared widely on social media, of Fadda confronting a young settler who has come to menace the family.
Fadda confronted a young settler in a video shared on social media
He stands right in front of her, staring her straight in the eyes, trying to push her forward. Fadda responds by standing her ground, smiling gently at him.
“This happens every single day,” says Fatima. “If we didn’t stand up for ourselves, we would have left long ago. The problem is, they’re children.
“They send the kids down on purpose to provoke us, to push us off our land. That’s why we’ve had to build this resilience.”
Fadda says the settlers come ‘right up to our doorstep to terrify the children’
Their tale of suffering is desperate. They tell me the family used to live in a house, which was demolished by the Israel military.
An hour later we drive past its remains – a huge pile of twisted metal and rubble. Their car has been taken so they have to walk to distant shops under the baking sun.
Mobile phones have been stolen along with computers and animals. Their flock of sheep is now kept in another place, hidden from sight.
‘This is our land’
“The situation has become really bad,” says Fatima. “Not just for us, but for the whole West Bank.”
And yet the family is determined to stay. “This is our land,” say both women, almost in unison. The brutal truth is also that they have nowhere else to go.
The West Bank is dotted with Israeli settlements, from top to bottom, some large and long-established, with thousands of residents and a sprawling infrastructure; some small and very new, with just a few caravans parked on a hilltop.
All of them are based on the idea of extending the reach of the Israeli state by placing its people all over the West Bank, or at least turning a blind eye to them moving there.
The fact that these settlements are, by widespread consent, illegal under international law has not stopped them from proliferating. Quite the opposite.
Not only are they growing in number and size, but the Israeli government is lending them ever more support and legitimacy.
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Bezalel Smotrich wants Israel to annex more than 82% of the West Bank. Pic: Reuters
Now, the far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has declared that it’s time for Israel to annex more than 82% of the West Bank.
His logic can be summed up like this: we’re not safe with neighbours like this, and according to the Bible, it should be our land anyway.
Not everyone will agree, and perhaps most outside Israel will strongly disagree, but Smotrich is, as always, unapologetic and unabashed.
“Beyond our Biblical, historical and moral right to the entire land of Israel, the political and security role of sovereignty is to ensure that a Palestinian Arab terror state is never established in our land,” he said.
“Enemies should be fought, not provided with comfortable lives.”
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The West Bank has, for decades, been a crucible for ever-growing mistrust and dislike. It has seen waves of terrible violence and chronic divisions.
There is no sign of things improving, but plenty of suggestions that they are getting worse.
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