Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
Iraq fell apart under occupation. The US disbanded the Ba’ath party and sents its army home. In the vacuum sectarian extremists thrived. The war had been fought to neutralise the threat posed by Al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11.
The opposite happened and even more extreme groups were spawned launching unprecedented campaigns of terror against occupiers and civilians alike. From the failed states of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State was born – an organisation that for years wrenched swathes of territory from both countries and plumbed new depths of terror and depravity.
For America, the enduring impact of the war and occupation has been a weakening of Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, told NBC News that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
Dini von Mueffling, Giuffre’s representative, also told the outlet: “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims. She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words. It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
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Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘I am now a survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
World
Fighter jets, a naval destroyer and guns on show: The ‘unprecedented’ security operation for Pope’s funeral
As the line of mourners moves slowly along behind him, Ciriaco Sarnelli peers at me from beneath the immaculate brim of his cap.
The military police chief looks, by any standards, magnificent – shoulders back and proudly wearing the black uniform of the Carabinieri.
“Our history goes back more than 200 years,” he says. “We remember our past, and our place. The only people with black uniforms are the priests, the judges and the Carabinieri.”
He leaves the rest unsaid – the Carabinieri sit at the heart of Italian cultural life.
Ciriaco Sarnelli, Carabinieri military police chief
Pope latest: Security ramping up ahead of funeral
Once, they defended the borders of a young nation. Now, they have a new challenge that has its own weighty burden – to keep St Peter’s Square safe during the funeral of Pope Francis.
This is no easy task. Hundreds of thousands will descend upon the Vatican for the event.
Many of the world’s best-known politicians and dignitaries will be welcomed into St Peter’s Basilica.
Inside will be Donald Trump, Sir Keir Starmer, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Prince William and dozens upon dozens of other dignitaries.
Outside will be the Carabinieri.
They won’t be alone – there are thousands of other police officers due to be assigned to protect the event – but the Carabinieri are affiliated to the military; the most highly-trained officers on duty.
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A member of the security personnel wields an anti-drone gun for the Pope’s funeral
“This is an extraordinary operation,” says Sarnelli, as we look out over the crowd. “So we have employed some special units that belong to Carabinieri – the bomb squad, a dogs unit, snipers and helicopters. We want to assure the people who are arriving here that they can take part in this event in the best way, in a secure way.”
He says they are ready for “common crimes” – like pickpockets in the crowd – but also “the biggest, terrifying events”.
He says there is “excellent coordination” with police forces from other countries.
Around him, his officers are smiling, chatting to tourists and Romans alike.
The security here is overt but friendly, even if I’m told there are also plenty of plain-clothed officers mingling within the crowd.
Guns and grins both on show.
A police helicopter circles above. In the port of Rome, a naval destroyer has been primed for action; there are fighter jets ready to take off.
You can watch full coverage of the funeral live on Sky News on Saturday
Huge crowds have come from around the world to see the Pope’s body
If the impression is relaxed, the reality is different. The classic swan.
All the strands are pulled together from one place and, what’s more, it offers a perfect view of Vatican City.
From where I’m standing, I can see the front of St Peter’s Basilica, the side, and the roads around it. I can see the crowds coming in, and the crowds going out.
And I can see an anxious policeman drumming his fingers.
But we are not in St Peter’s and not even in the Vatican.
This is the high-security control room on the fifth floor of Rome’s police headquarters.
And from here, you can see everything.
The control room from where security officials can see across the Italian capital
An array of screens are in front of us and, watching them, men and women, huddled over screens and all wearing contrasting uniforms.
Some are military, some national police, some wear the clothes of firefighters. A few are in plain clothes and there is even a man wearing the badge of the prison officers’ service.
This centre is a hub for collaboration and decision-making and it brings together every service that is involved in ensuring the safety and security of the funeral.
There is a Carabinieri officer here, as well as the Guardia di Finanza national police and the Roman force. The government’s secret intelligence service is represented here, too.
Elisabetta Accardo is from Rome’s police department. We talk against the gentle hubbub in the control room, colleagues pointing at screens and agreeing plans.
Elisabetta Accardo, Rome Police control room spokeswoman
I ask when Italy last had to deal with a security operation on this scale, and she laughs. “Hundreds of years,” she says.
“It is unprecedented. The level of security is at the maximum.” She describes the plan as “structured three-dimensional security”.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
It is a plan that has been long in the making, but which has been reshaped over the past few days to react to the whims of the Pope’s final wishes.
It is, after all, more than a century since a pope was buried outside the walls of the Vatican.
You get the impression that the people designing the security plan could rather have done without having to add an hour-long procession through Rome into the plan.
But so be it.
By Saturday night, it will be done. Rome can start to get back to normal; the foreign leaders will be on their way home.
And the Rome police will breathe just a little bit easier.
World
Kremlin blames Ukraine for car bomb killing of Russian general near Moscow – as Trump envoy meets Putin
The Kremlin has blamed Ukraine for a car bomb that killed a Russian general near Moscow hours before Donald Trump’s envoy was due to meet Vladimir Putin in the capital.
The death of Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik is the second such fatal attack on a top Russian military officer in four months.
Russia’s top criminal investigation agency said he was killed by an explosive device placed in his car in Balashikha, just outside the capital.
Follow the latest updates on the Ukraine war
Yaroslav Moskalik. Pic: Russian Ministry of Defence
Moskalik was a deputy head of the main operational department in the General Staff of the Russian armed forces.
“The Kyiv regime once again simply shows its true nature. The Kyiv regime continues to be involved in terrorist activity on the territory of our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
He didn’t offer any evidence.
“It shows once again that, despite the peace talks, we must be on guard and understand the nature of this regime.”
Ukraine has not responded to the killing.
Investigators work at the scene where Lt Gen Yaroslav Moskalik was killed. Pic: AP
Investigative committee spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko said the explosive device was rigged with shrapnel, adding that investigators were at the scene.
Videos showed a vehicle burning in the courtyard of an apartment building and a body covered in a sheet could be seen on the pavement nearby.
It comes after Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov was killed in December when a bomb hidden on an electric scooter parked outside his apartment building exploded as he left for his office.
Russian authorities blamed Ukraine for the killing of Kirillov, and Ukraine’s security agency acknowledged that it was behind that attack.
Kirillov was the chief of Russia’s radiation, biological and chemical protection forces, the special troops tasked with protecting the military from the enemy’s use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and ensuring operations in a contaminated environment.
His assistant also died in the attack.
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Talks bring Russia and US ‘closer together’
Friday’s bombing came as Mr Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met Mr Putin in Moscow to discuss a US-brokered peace plan for Ukraine.
The talks allowed Russia and the United States to “further bring their positions closer together” on “a number of international issues”, a Kremlin aide said.
The two sides discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine”, Yuri Ushakov said.
The talks in Moscow lasted for three hours and were “constructive and useful”, he added.
Speaking on a flight to Italy for the Pope’s funeral, the US president said he hadn’t been fully briefed on Mr Witkoff and Mr Putin’s meeting – but added it was a “pretty good meeting”.
The meeting was their fourth encounter since February.
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
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