Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
Iraq fell apart under occupation. The US disbanded the Ba’ath party and sents its army home. In the vacuum sectarian extremists thrived. The war had been fought to neutralise the threat posed by Al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11.
The opposite happened and even more extreme groups were spawned launching unprecedented campaigns of terror against occupiers and civilians alike. From the failed states of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State was born – an organisation that for years wrenched swathes of territory from both countries and plumbed new depths of terror and depravity.
For America, the enduring impact of the war and occupation has been a weakening of Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
World
At least 114 dead after Philippines typhoon, as state of emergency declared and more than 100 still missing
The Philippines has declared a state of emergency after a typhoon left at least 114 dead and 127 missing.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr issued the “state of national calamity” declaration after a meeting with disaster officials on Thursday.
It comes after Typhoon Kalmaegi made landfall on Tuesday, striking the country’s central provinces. It is the deadliest natural disaster to hit the Philippines this year.
After reaching the country, the storm hit with sustained winds of 87mph and gusts of up to 121mph.
Authorities in Vietnam, meanwhile, are bracing for Kalmaegi’s approach. Forecasters warned that Ho Chi Minh City faces a heightened risk of severe flooding, as high tides would coincide with the expected heavy rainfall from the typhoon.
So far, the deaths recorded were mainly as a result of flooding in flash floods. The country’s civil defence office said that at least 71 people died in Cebu.
Cebu province was hit hard by the typhoon, with at least 71 dead. Pics: Reuters
Cebu, a province of more than 2.4 million people, was still recovering from a 6.9 magnitude earthquake on 30 September, which left at least 79 people dead.
A state of calamity was previously declared there to allow authorities to disburse emergency funds more rapidly.
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Filipinos stranded on roofs amid Typhoon floods
The province’s governor Pamela Baricuatro told the Associated Press on Thursday: “We did everything we can for the typhoon but, you know, there are really some unexpected things like flash floods.”
Almost two million people were affected by the tropical cyclone, with more than 560,000 displaced and almost 450,000 evacuated to emergency shelters.
Cars swept away by floods brought by Typhoon Kalmaegi are left on a street in Cotcot, Liloan, Philippines. Pic: Reuters
Abandoned vehicles were also seen across Cotcot, in Liloan. Pic: Reuters
Six people who died as a result of the typhoon were killed when a Philippine air force helicopter crashed in the southern province of Agusan del Sur on Tuesday.
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The crew was on its way to provide humanitarian aid to provinces affected, the military said, without giving the cause of the crash.
The Philippines is one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries.
It is affected by around 20 typhoons and storms each year, is also often hit by earthquakes, and has more than a dozen active volcanoes.
World
Elon Musk: Why some are starting to question if the world’s richest man is still value for money
Elon Musk is already the world’s richest man, but today he could take a giant step towards becoming the world’s first trillionaire.
Shareholders at Tesla are voting on a pay deal for their chief executive that is unlike anything corporate America has ever seen.
The package would grant Musk, who already has a net worth of more than $400bn, around 425 million shares in the company.
That would net him about $1trn (£760bn) and, perhaps more importantly to Musk, it would tighten his grip on the company by raising his stake from 15% to almost 30%.
The board, which has been making its case to retail investors with a series of videos and digital ads, has a simple message: Tesla is at a turning point.
Musk onstage during an event for Tesla in Shanghai, China. Pic: Reuters
Yes, it wants to sell millions of cars, but it also wants to be a pioneer in robotaxis, AI-driven humanoid robots, and autonomous driving software. At this moment, it needs its visionary leader motivated and fully on board.
Musk has served his warning shot. Late last month, he wrote on X: “Tesla is worth more than all other automotive companies combined. Which of those CEOs would you like to run Tesla? It won’t be me.”
Not everyone is buying it, however.
With so much of his personal wealth tied up in Tesla, would Musk really walk away?
Musk poses after his company’s initial public offering at the NASDAQ market in New York on 29 June 2010. Pic: Reuters
Bad for the brand?
Others see his continued presence and rising influence as a risk. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, which owns 1.1% of the company (making it a top 10 shareholder), has already declared it will vote against the deal. It cited concerns about “the award’s size, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk”.
Several major US pension funds have followed suit. In an open letter published last month, they warned: “The board’s relentless pursuit of keeping its chief executive has damaged Tesla’s reputation.”
They also criticised the board for allowing Musk to pursue other ventures. They said he was overcommitted and distracted as a result. Signatories of that letter included the state treasurers of Nevada, New Mexico, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Colorado, and the comptrollers of Maryland and New York City.
All of them Democrats. Republicans have been more favourable. There is a political slant to this.
The signatories’ concerns with his “other ventures” no doubt include the time Musk spent dabbling in right-wing politics with the Republican inner circle. That made him a polarising figure and, to an extent, Tesla too.
Elon Musk, who’s been close to Donald Trump, boards Air Force One in New Jersey. Pic: Reuters
Pay packet dwarfs rivals
Combine this with a mixed sales performance and a volatile share price, and some are wondering whether the carmaker has lost its way under his leadership.
Irrespective of performance, for some, the existence of billionaires – let alone trillionaires – can never be justified. Some may also ask why Musk is worth so much more than the leaders of Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, or Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation.
Nvidia‘s chief executive, Jensen Huang, received $49.9m (£37.9m) this fiscal year. So, how has Tesla come up with these numbers? Why is Musk’s pay so out of kilter with the benchmark? Does the company have a corporate governance problem?
The courts have suggested it might. Last year, a Delaware court took the view that Tesla’s board members, which include Musk’s brother Kimbal, were not fully independent when agreeing to a $56bn (£42.6bn) pay packet back in 2017.
Jensen Huang has defended the AI sector. Pic: Reuters
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The Delaware Supreme Court is now reviewing the case. It is a reminder that even if Musk meets his targets, a similar fate could befall the current package.
The Tesla board is holding firm, however. Robyn Denholm, the company’s chair, told The New York Times: “He doesn’t get any compensation if he doesn’t deliver,” adding that Musk “does things that further humankind”.
Tesla’s valuation is tied up in its promise to deliver revolutionary AI and robotics products that will change the world. Those ambitions, which include robots that can look after children, are lofty. Some would call them unrealistic, but the board is adamant that if they are to become a reality, only Musk can make it happen.
Under the deal, Musk would receive no salary or cash bonus. Instead, he would collect shares as Tesla’s value grows. To unlock the full package, he would have to increase the current market valuation six times to $8.5trn (£6.47trn). For context, that’s almost twice that of Nvidia.
There are other hurdles. The company would have to sell 20 million additional electric vehicles, achieve 10 million subscriptions to its self-driving software on average over three months, deploy one million robotaxis on average over the same period, sell one million AI-powered robots, and boost adjusted earnings 24-fold to $400bn (£304bn).
They are ambitious targets, but Musk has defied the sceptics before.
A driver has knocked down several people on the French island of Ile d’Oleron.
Two people are in intensive care following the incident and a man has been arrested, French interior minister Laurent Nunez said.
Several others were injured after the motorist struck pedestrians and cyclists, he added.
Thibault Brechkoff, the mayor of Dolus-d’Oleron, told BFMTV the suspect shouted “Allahu Akbar” (Arabic for God is Greatest) when he was detained.
Arnaud Laraize, the public prosecutor in La Rochelle, told the Sud Ouest newspaper the 35-year-old suspect “resisted arrest” and was “subdued using a stun gun”.
He said the suspect was known for minor offences such as theft, adding he was not on a list of people considered a threat to national security.
Pedestrians and cyclists were hit on a road between Dolus d’Oleron and Saint-Pierre d’Oleron, he added.
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Police were alerted, with the first calls made at around 9am, according to French media reports.
Mr Nunez said in a post on X that he was heading to the scene at the request of the French prime minister.
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