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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) extended absence from the Senate has stirred speculation among Republican senators over how much longer the 81-year-old senator will lead the Senate GOP conference. 

There’s no word yet on McConnell’s date of return, but some lawmakers expect he may not come back to the Senate until mid-April, after the two-week Easter and Passover recess.  

“I’ve heard senators say, half-jokingly, I wonder if the people who want to be leader are starting to count votes,” one Republican senator said. “People are thinking this is probably good reminder that he’s not going to be leader in 10 years.” 

“It’s kind of a state of limbo. Nobody really knows what the situation is and nobody knows how long he’ll be gone,” the lawmaker added. “A couple of folks have said, ‘Who’s in charge right now.’” 

Another GOP senator privately expressed concern to The Hill last week about the future of the Senate Republican Conference after McConnell retires.  

“I think, who would be our next leader and what kind of leader would that person be?” the senator said. “Yeah, I do worry about that.” 

The Republican Party is changing and some GOP lawmakers fear that could accelerate if former President Trump wins the party’s presidential nomination or general election in 2024. Speculation about Trump is rising again this week as the former president himself predicts an indictment over a hush-money payment to adult-film star Stormy Daniels.

Before his injury, McConnell was trying to put his stamp on the future makeup of the Senate GOP conference by playing a significant role in next year’s Senate primaries, helping candidates who have an eye toward governing and the best chance of winning in November.  

He told Fox News last month that in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania “we’re focusing on now to try to get the very most electable candidate nominated.”  

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said McConnell’s “got a better instinct for the electorate than virtually anybody in the Senate.”  

“I think he’s representing good conservative value and at the same understanding the political boundaries we need in to resonate at a national level and in purple states and even blue states,” he said, predicting that McConnell will remain as leader through his current Senate term, which ends after 2026.  

“I have full confidence in him, I’m going to support him,” he said.  

Some Republican senators think that McConnell’s successor would lead in the same way he has by promoting traditional Republican values, cutting deals with Democrats when necessary and promoting unity across the Senate Republican Conference. 

GOP senators say they expect either Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) or Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to someday replace McConnell as leader and predict that either man would inspire a lot of confidence. 

Thune is the second-ranking Senate Republican leader, but he will step down from that job at the end of 2024 because of Republican conference term limits.  

Thune built strong relationships with the business community during his time as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee and has an impressive track record of moving legislation, getting more than 100 bills signed into law. He was one of the “core four” Republican senators who put together the landmark 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.   

He actively raised money for Senate colleagues and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and has more than $16.5 million in his campaign account. 

Thune is open to the possibility of running for leader someday, but says any talk about him succeeding McConnell is putting “the cart before the horse.” 

“If and when the time comes, I’m always interested in what I can do to help our team succeed but certainly right now just trying to get from one day to the next,” he said. 

Cornyn has made it clear that he’s also interested in serving as leader whenever McConnell decides to retire.   

Cornyn’s allies tout him as the biggest Senate Republican fundraiser after McConnell and the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. 

He raised $11 million in hard dollars through the Cornyn Victory Committee to aid Republican campaigns directly and he raised another $9 million for the NRSC and Senate GOP incumbents and candidates, hosting and attending events in Texas, Washington and around the country.  

He also played a central role in negotiating two of the biggest bipartisan accomplishments of 2022: gun violence legislation to respond to the mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas, and the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act.  

McConnell asked Cornyn to take the lead on the difficult gun violence issue because he wanted to get a result that wouldn’t create a rift between GOP senators and gun rights advocates.  

Thune stood in for McConnell last week by presiding over the Monday afternoon Senate Republican leadership meeting and taking the lead in speaking to reporters at the Tuesday leadership press conference.  

But McConnell has continued to play a role. His staff worked closely with Thune’s staff to set the agenda for the Monday leadership meeting, which was still held in his Capitol office.  

Asked how it felt to be in charge of the GOP conference while McConnell is away, Thune laughed and answered: “I don’t think of it as being in charge, I think we’re all trying to pitch in and help the team however we can.” 

“We’re working closely with the leader’s team to make sure all the bases get covered,” he said.

McConnell sent a message to colleagues Thursday when they gathered for a lunch hosted by Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) to say he was doing well and sorry to miss out on the delicious Maine lobster rolls prepared by a Park City restaurant.    

“I don’t anticipate there to be an uncertainty whatsoever. His return is absolute,” said Josh Holmes, a senior political adviser to McConnell, who added that the GOP leader is showing good progress at a rehab facility.  

“Based on everything we’ve seen over the last week any suspicion otherwise will be voided almost immediately when he gets back,” he added, knocking down speculation that McConnell’s condition is worse than has been publicly reported.   

McConnell has a solid grip on the Senate Republican leader’s job, which he showed in November by easily defeating Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) in a leadership race by a vote of 37-10. 

He is biggest fundraiser for Senate Republican candidates and helped raise $290 million for the 2022 midterm through an affiliated super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund.  

But McConnell has also bitterly feuded with Trump. In addition, his commitment to free trade, a strong national defense and political pragmatism is sometimes a friction point with Republicans who embrace Trump’s “America First” populism.  

McConnell’s break with Trump opened the door for Scott to challenge him, something that Trump publicly encouraged.  

Several Republicans who voted for Scott said McConnell has led the GOP conference for long enough — more than 16 years. The Kentucky senator in January surpassed late-Sen. Mike Mansfield (D-Mont.) as the longest-serving Senate leader in history. 

“I voted for change,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told The Hill in November. “Nothing against Mitch, I just think we need change.”

Some Republicans, however, think McConnell has performed a major service for the Senate GOP conference by absorbing so much of Trump’s wrath and taking the heat of other senators who have their own complaints and disagreements with the former president.  

They say he also soaks up criticism from the media and critics on the left that would otherwise fall on other GOP senators.   North Korea describes latest missile launch as simulated nuclear attack on South Trump accuses Manhattan DA of ‘interference in a presidential election’

“One thing about McConnell’s total value is that he’ll just take it from anybody for anybody,” said a third Republican senator who requested anonymity to talk about the future of the Senate GOP leadership.  

The senator said Thune and Cornyn are the clear front-runners to become the next leader but still have to prove they can fill McConnell’s shoes as a political heat shield for other Republican senators. 

“I think both of them are like that but I don’t know. I think they’d have to convince some people that they are,” the senator said. 

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Angela Rayner came out fighting in our interview – but her future is now out of her control

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Angela Rayner came out fighting in our interview - but her future is now out of her control

I’ve interviewed Angela Rayner a number of times and know her to be a robust operator with a very thick skin. 

But on Wednesday morning, as she walked into our interview to admit that she had underpaid tax on her Hove home and explain the personal circumstances around that, she was visibly upset.

For days, this story has run on and now we have a better picture of why. The deputy prime minister told me she had to ask for court permission to release details of her domestic arrangements to give the background to the tax trouble she now finds herself in. And on Wednesday, she revealed all.

Politics latest: Why the deputy PM nearly resigned

It is a complicated and personal story, but in essence, her family had a trust set up in 2020 to provide for her son who has lifelong disabilities to ensure that he would be provided for and protected.

When she divorced her husband in 2023, some of the interest in the family home was transferred to the trust and then in 2025, she sold her remaining interest in the property to her teenage son’s trust.

She then used the proceeds from that to buy the new property in Hove, using the money from her family home in Ashton to pay the deposit.

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Rayner admits she didn’t pay enough tax

Ms Rayner says she was advised that the home she bought was liable for the standard rate of stamp duty. It now turns out that advice was wrong and she owes tens of thousands in underpaid tax, because Hove is classified as her second home rather than her main residence.

She says it was a genuine mistake and has referred herself to the PM’s independent standards commissioner and informed HMRC. She says she will pay any additional tax owed.

The deputy PM was clearly upset in our interview by having to disclose private details about her teenage children.

I was left in little doubt that she had felt forced to share information about them that she really didn’t want to share.

She also admitted that she had discussed packing it all in with her ex-husband and children rather than putting this personal stuff into the public domain, but her family wanted her to go public to answer media reports that she had acted in a “hypocritical way”.

Read more: Angela Rayner a ‘great British success story’, says PM

Ms Rayner appeared at PMQs moments after the interview
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Ms Rayner appeared at PMQs moments after the interview

“We felt that under the circumstances that having that reputation, for me as their mother, was more damaging than correcting the record on what we were trying to do,” she said.

But this is much more than just trying to save Ms Rayner’s reputation. Her political career is on the line, and, at the moment, it is unclear whether she will be able to continue as deputy prime minister.

She told me in our interview that the prime minister “knows the circumstances” and “knows the challenges that my son has faced and the background to all of that”, and it is now for the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards, Sir Laurie Magnus, to look at the evidence that she was advised she did not have to pay a stamp duty surcharge.

He has a reputation for being quick and if he finds Ms Rayner broke the ministerial code, it will be hard to see how Sir Keir Starmer will not accept that advice.

On top of that, HMRC is also investigating the deputy prime minister and if she is found to have been careless around her tax, she might face a penalty on top of the stamp duty owed, which will again put her under huge pressure.

There is also the political fall out for a politician who has gone in hard on Tories over tax questions for years.

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Angela Rayner blames incorrect tax advice

Defending her from the attacks that are now surely to come is going to burn through a lot of political capital of a government already in trouble. Will her colleagues around the cabinet table and on the backbenches have the stomach for it?

When I asked her in our interview whether she really believed her position was sustainable, given she had underpaid on tax and that she was the housing minister, she told me that she hoped “people can see what has happened and see that I wasn’t trying to dodge tax”, and when she realised that advice was inaccurate she “took immediate steps to do the right thing -you should pay the tax that is owed”.

“Hopefully, people can see there isn’t any intention to deceive, to avoid, to be hypocritical in the way in which I have conducted myself,” she said.

Ms Rayner is never far from the headlines and has often found herself under fire in her political career, rising to the second most powerful office in the country from the most humble of backgrounds.

But she knows too that despite complicated family issues, she has made a very serious error indeed and one which she would have been quick to criticise had the perpetrator been a political opponent.

She has come out fighting today, but whether she can survive is now beyond her control.

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Angela Rayner: ‘Victim of misogyny’ or ‘freeloading’ deputy prime minister?

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Angela Rayner: 'Victim of misogyny' or 'freeloading' deputy prime minister?

To her most savage critics – from Tories to the far left – she’s “Rotten Rayner”, a tax evader, freeloader and a “low life… on the make”.

To her trade union friends, she’s a victim of misogyny who right-wing politicians are attempting to hound out because she’s working class.

And after her tearful interview on Sky News, even among some of her political opponents there’s a degree of sympathy for Angela Rayner too.

Politics latest: Why the deputy PM nearly resigned

But amid the rancorous debate among MPs about whether she should stay or go, there’s one part of her defence that is attracting scepticism from friends and foes.

That’s her claim that she was initially given duff advice by a solicitor. Really? If she has evidence to substantiate that, she may be in the clear, though there’d no doubt be accusations of an establishment stitch-up.

But if not – and the city grandee who’s the PM’s ethics adviser – the Eton and Oxford-educated baronet Sir Laurie Magnus – rejects her defence, she’ll almost certainly have to go.

More on Angela Rayner

And with her resignation – or sacking – would almost certainly go her hopes of succeeding the increasingly unpopular Sir Keir as Labour leader, despite her popularity with the party’s activists.

When she arrived for Prime Minister’s Questions, just half an hour after her bombshell confession, the Labour high command placed a collective arm around her.

Sir Keir Starmer, who told MPs he was proud to sit alongside a deputy PM from a working-class background, put his hand on her left shoulder.

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Beth Rigby on Angela Rayner’s uncertain future

Lucy Powell, the leader of the Commons, sitting the other side of the beleaguered Ms Rayner, did the same on her right shoulder.

Rachel Reeves, who also knows all about being beleaguered and shedding tears in public, looked across at her and smiled sympathetically.

If Labour feared a brutal PMQs onslaught from Kemi Badenoch, they needn’t have worried. “Why is she still in office?” the Tory leader began. So far, so good.

“If he had a backbone he would sack her,” she said in the second of her six questions. But that was it. “But let us get back to borrowing,” she continued.

Inexplicably, the Tory leader ploughed on with her pre-prepared questions on government borrowing. Labour MPs couldn’t believe their luck. Cue numerous jokes about missed open goals.

After another dud Kemi-Kaze performance at PMQs, some MPs were even speculating that Ms Rayner’s survival prospects – slim, at best – remain better than those of the Tory leader.

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Badenoch calls on PM to sack Rayner

But in the cruel world of social media, Ms Rayner was not spared a vicious onslaught from critics from across the political divide. You’d better keep your phone switched off, Angi.

From the spiky shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel, Ms Rayner was “the property tax dodging, freeloading deputy prime minister” who had “finally admitted breaking the law and evading paying taxes owed”.

There was more. “She says that’s she’s sorry,” said punchy Priti. “But she’s only sorry that she was caught out. Rotten Rayner should go.”

Nadhim Zahawi, who was sacked as Tory chairman in 2023 after an inquiry found he failed to disclose an investigation into his tax affairs, added: “Did you think about my children Angela Rayner?

“Breaks my heart seeing anybody distressed about their children, but the hypocrisy really does hurt.”

But it wasn’t just Tories – who let’s not forget were denounced as “Scum!” by Ms Rayner back in 2021, in what she described as “street language” – who were brutal.

Read more:
Rayner admits she should have paid more stamp duty
Rayner came out fighting in Sky interview
Rayner’s tax affairs statement in full

The acerbic George Galloway declared: “She’s a lowlife”. For good measure, he claimed she was “on the make” and on “Supermarket Sweep, piling her trolley full”.

However, from the trade union movement, which campaigned hard for the DPM’s workers’ rights legislation, there was unequivocal support.

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak told Sky News: “Angela Rayner comes under sustained coverage because she’s a working-class woman in a way that frankly Nigel Farage, leading members of the shadow cabinet, never would.

“I think there’s a real heavy dose of misogyny when it comes to Angela.

“I wouldn’t want to see a hounded out of an important role by right wing politicians and the right wing media who frankly can’t handle the fact that a working class woman is our Deputy Prime Minister.”

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But there was sympathy from one party leader, Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats, who said that as a parent of a disabled child “I know the thing my wife and I worry most about is our son’s care after we have gone”.

Shortly after PMQs, opening a Tory debate on, yes, property taxes, shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride opted for ridicule and mockery. “I’m absolutely certain that the deputy prime minister had a good recess,” he began.

“We saw many photographs of her down at the seaside, just off the coast in a rubber dinghy, rather like many of the other photographs over the summer given the reckless policies this government has towards illegal migration.

“She was probably celebrating the acquisition of another property for her property empire, but perhaps also slightly tinged with that nagging doubt as to whether she had indeed paid enough stamp duty.

“Well, we’ll get to the bottom of that in due course.”

Quite so, Mel. We will.

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Angela Rayner’s tax affairs interview in full

Let’s also reflect that on Monday Sir Keir Starmer proudly announced: “Phase two of my government starts today.” On Tuesday, he informed MPs, he was “speaking at length” to Ms Rayner. Must have been awkward.

And on Wednesday, the PM had to watch her tearful confession, just minutes before facing MPs in the Commons.

Not a great start to phase two, prime minister. Nor for his embattled and tearful deputy, who’s now fighting for political survival.

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Angela Rayner’s explanation for stamp duty error not the end of the matter

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Angela Rayner's explanation for stamp duty error not the end of the matter

Angela Rayner’s explanation for her failure to pay the correct stamp duty on her home in Hove rests on a claim that she was wrongly advised about her tax exposure when buying the property earlier this year.

Following media reports that she had avoided tax of up to £40,000 she took fresh advice and now acknowledges she should have paid the second-home stamp duty surcharge, taking the tax owed on the £800,000 property from £30,000 to £70,000.

She says the confusion lies in the complexity of her domestic affairs, arising from arrangements made to care for her son, who has “lifelong disabilities” and special educational needs.

Politics latest: Angela Rayner facing calls to quit

In 2020 an award was made to Ms Rayner‘s son following what she called “a deeply personal and distressing incident” as a premature baby, and a trust was established to manage the award and his interests.

She is not explicit in her statement but it is presumed the “award” was financial, potentially made in compensation.

Ms Rayner says she and her then husband Mark Rayner committed to transfer their interest in the family home in Ashton-under-Lyne to the trust, of which their son is the sole beneficiary.

More on Angela Rayner

In 2023, the couple divorced but agreed that their children would remain in the family home while they routinely moved in and out to care for them, an arrangement known as nesting. At that time, Ms Rayner said some of their interest in the family home passed to her son’s trust

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Rayner admits she didn’t pay enough tax

In January 2025, the deputy prime minister says she sold her remaining interest in the home to her son’s trust and used it as a deposit on a flat in Hove, valued at around £800,000. She took out a mortgage to cover the remainder of the purchase.

At the time, she says she took tax advice and was told that, given she no longer owned any other property, she was only required to pay standard stamp duty, which would have totalled around £30,000.

Money latest: Wetherspoons stops accepting some banknotes in England

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Badenoch: Sack Rayner

Following media reporting last month she says she sought fresh advice from “senior tax counsel” and was told she was in fact liable to pay the second-home stamp duty surcharge, an additional 5% flat charge, because of what she calls “complex deeming provisions” relating to her son’s trust.

Deeming provisions are a legal device that create a “legal fiction” to simplify complex issues, often in relation to tax.

Ms Rayner gives no details of the provisions, but one explanation is that if she has rights under the terms of the trust to live in the family home for life, it should be treated as her main residence for the purposes of stamp duty.

HMRC’s guidance on the higher rate of stamp duty states parents of under-18s are treated as the owners of residential property “even if the property is held through trust and they are not the trustees”.

She says that the Ashton-under-Lyne property remains her family home, where she is registered for official, financial and medical purposes.

Read more:
Rayner admits she should have paid more stamp duty
Rayner came out fighting in Sky interview
Rayner’s tax affairs statement in full

In December 2024, Ms Rayner was granted the use of a grace-and-favour flat in Admiralty House in Whitehall in her role as deputy prime minister, and gave up a rented property in London to move in. She had classified this as her second home for council tax purposes, which as a consequence is paid for by the government.

The advice that counts now is that which Sir Laurie Magnus gives to the prime minister. The government’s independent ethics adviser may want to know if Ms Rayner provided the full facts regarding the trust and her main home to her first tax adviser, or whether by omission the fault lies with her.

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