In a controversial move, the United Nations chief is today calling on polluting developed countries like the UK to “fast forward” net zero targets by a decade to 2040, warning the “climate time bomb is ticking”.
It comes as the most comprehensive review yet of the state of climate change delivers a bleak picture of humanity’s failure to tackle it, warning the window to secure a “liveable and sustainable future” is “rapidly closing”.
But climate scientists have rallied to point out there are still grounds for hope.
Today’s report from the United Nations’ IPCC is the culmination of eight years of work by hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists, summarising six underlying reports.
The final sign-off by all governments was repeatedly pushed back amid a battle between rich and developing countries over emissions targets and financial aid to vulnerable nations.
Image: Spain was plagued by wildfires last summer amid soaring heat and drought. Pic: AP
The last similar report in 2014 paved the way for the ambitious Paris Agreement the following year.
The next of its kind won’t arrive until 2030, making this effectively the last collective warning and action plan from scientists while the 1.5°C warming is still in reach – though only just.
Key findings of the IPCC report
Human activity has “unequivocally” warmed the planet by 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels.
Emissions must fall 48% by 2030 – the first time such a bold target has been signed off in a global political document.
Climate risks make things like pandemics or conflicts worse.
Emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure alone would blow the agreed 1.5°C warming target, unless they are captured via still risky technology.
Global sea levels have already risen by 20cm on average.
At least 3.3 billion people are “highly vulnerable” to impacts including “acute food insecurity” and water stress.
Extreme heat is already killing people in every region.
Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least are disproportionately affected.
But amid the bleak warnings of lost jobs, homes, crops and lives, scientists insisted there were still grounds for hope.
IPCC chair Professor Hoesung Lee painted a picture of a “liveable sustainable future for all” – though only if we “act now.”
“We should feel considerable anxiety,” said Professor Emily Shuckburgh from Cambridge University, who recently co-authored a book on climate change with King Charles, but was not involved with this report.
“But hope, rather than despair,” she added, highlighting that the IPCC said it’s still possible to limit warming to the agreed safer threshold of 1.5°C.
The report says changes in how we eat, travel, heat our homes and use the land can all cut climate-heating gases, while reducing air pollution, improving health and boosting jobs.
And there is enough global capital to rapidly slash climate-heating pollution.
“Not despair, but not just hope, because there is a lot of work to do,” said Dr Friederike Otto, a member of the core writing team and senior lecturer at Imperial College London.
“But we don’t need any new magic invention that we have to do research on for the next 30 years or so. We have the knowledge… But we also need to implement this.”
Image: Representatives at the fraught approval session to sign off the IPCC AR6 synthesis report. Pic: IPCC
‘The wolf is at the door’
But because the window to act is “rapidly closing,” the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will today attempt to heap pressure on rich nations to make up for lost time.
In 2018 the IPCC loudly warned of the “unprecedented scale of the challenge required to keep warming to 1.5°C”.
Five years later, that challenge is “even greater” due to a failure to cut emissions enough, it said.
“Leaders of developed countries must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2040,” Mr Guterres is expected to say shortly.
“This can be done,” he will add in an address to launch the report, which he calls “a how-to guide to defuse the climate time bomb”.
Mohamed Adow, director of thinktank Power Shift Africa, said it was “only fair that Guterres is setting more ambitious goals for wealthier countries who can make the transition more quickly and who have got rich off the back of burning fossil fuels”.
Image: Widespread drought last summer dried up large parts of Europe, including this section of reservoir in Yorkshire. Pic: AP
But the proposal may spark some backlash for apparently moving the goalposts. Countries are already struggling to meet the previously agreed target of net zero by 2050.
Asked about the proposed date change, a UK government spokesperson said: “Today’s report makes clear that nations around the world must work towards far more ambitious climate commitments.”
Britain is currently off track to get its emissions to net zero even by 2050, according to an independent assessment last week, and the recent budget was criticised for falling short on climate policies.
Rebecca Newsom, head of politics at Greenpeace UK, said: “Forget distant tropical islands and future generations – we have already seen what 40°C summers and flash flooding look like here in the UK. The wolf is at the door.”
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10:22
The next COP global climate conference might fail to reach a deal to completely phase out fossil fuels, campaigners warn
Fossil fuel battleground at COP28
The COP28 climate summit will take place in the United Arab Emirates in December.
The findings of the latest IPCC report are supposed to inform those climate negotiations in Dubai.
This year’s summit is seen as particularly important, taking a “global stocktake” of how countries have progressed since the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Observers pointed out that every government had signed off on the scientific conclusions released today, which include the call for a “substantial reduction in fossil fuel use”.
The necessary approval process by all nations is designed to ensure governments act on the contents.
Yet some countries resist that language in other forums such as the more political COP climate summits, with oil and gas states last year blocking a pledge to “phase down all fossil fuels” from the final agreement at COP27 in Egypt.
“By signing off the IPCC reports all governments, even those of high-emitting countries such as Saudi Arabia, Australia, the US and the UAE, acknowledge that climate change is a real and present danger,” said Richard Black from energy thinktank ECIU.
The UN will hope there is similar agreement in December – which needs to result in meaningful action.
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Two people who died following a fire at a caravan site near Skegness have been named by police.
Lincolnshire Police said 48-year-old Lee Baker and his 10-year-old daughter Esme Baker, both from the Nottingham area, were killed in the blaze.
However, formal identification is still yet to take place and “could take some time”, the force said.
Emergency services were alerted to a fire at Golden Beach Holiday Park, in the village of Ingoldmells, at 3.53am on Saturday.
In a statement issued through police, a member of the Baker family said: “Lee and Esme were excited to be spending the first weekend of the holidays together.
“We are all utterly devastated at what’s happened.
“This loss is incomprehensible at the moment, and we ask for people to give us space to process this utterly heartbreaking loss.”
A GoFundMe page set up for the victims’ family described the father and daughter as “two peas in a pod” who were “both happy-go-lucky people who loved life”. It has so far raised more than £3,000.
The police force, together with Lincolnshire Fire & Rescue, are continuing to investigate the cause of the blaze.
Detective Inspector Lee Nixon said: “We believe we might be close to arriving at a working hypothesis.
“We are working hard to validate the facts available to us to be able to provide answers for the family and loved ones of those who were very tragically taken by this fire.
“Yet the evident intensity of the fire has made this task incredibly challenging.”
Dan Moss, from Lincolnshire Fire & Rescue, said: “Our thoughts and deepest condolences are with the family at this time.
“Our Fire Investigation Team is working with colleagues from Lincolnshire Police, and a full investigation into the cause of the fire is ongoing.
“Once investigations are complete, local fire crews and our community fire safety team will be on hand to talk to people in the area and address any fire safety concerns they may have, at what will be an upsetting time.”
A man has been arrested by police investigating a “significant” wildfire that triggered a major incident in Northern Ireland.
More than 100 firefighters and 15 fire appliances were deployed on Saturday to Sandbank Road, Hilltown, to tackle the blaze which is believed to have been caused deliberately, fire chiefs said.
Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue Service (NIFRS) said the fire had a front of approximately two miles “including a large area of forestry close to property”.
It was extinguished at 2.53am on Sunday and the major incident status lifted, the NIFRS said.
“The cause of this fire is believed to have been deliberate,” chief fire and rescue officer Aidan Jennings said.
The Police Service of Northern Ireland said on Sunday that a 25-year-old man had been arrested “on suspicion of arson being reckless as to whether life would be endangered, and non-related driving offences”.
“He remains in custody at this time as enquiries continue into the circumstances surrounding the fire,” the force added.
Image: The wildfire on Sandbank Road, Hilltown. Pic: Sky Watch NI
Image: More than 100 firefighters were at the scene of the fire. Pic: Sky Watch NI
On Saturday, helicopters were deployed to tackle Scotland’s fourth wildfire this week, with police saying a blaze “which started in the Newton Stewart area has spread northwards and is expected to reach the Loch Doon area of East Ayrshire around 12am on Sunday”.
Police Scotland added: “As a precautionary measure members of the public are asked to avoid the Loch Doon area and anyone who may be camping in the area is advised to leave.”
Image: Moors Valley Country Park blackened by fires this week
Elsewhere in England, Devon and Cornwall Police said they were assisting the fire service with temporary road closures on the A30 in the Bolventor area as they tackle “a number of fires” on moorland.
In Dorset, Moors Valley Country Park was forced to close after multiple wildfires broke out there on Wednesday.
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Wildfires spread across nature reserve
Separate incidents were then reported at Upton Heath in Poole on Wednesday, and nearby Canford Heath in the early hours of Thursday.
Friday was officially the warmest day of the year so far – with temperatures in the south of England reaching 23C (73.4F) – the highest since 21 September last year, according to the Met Office.
Police are investigating after a man was shot dead in County Durham.
Officers were called to an address in Elm Street, Stanley, at about 5.20pm on Saturday after reports of a “disturbance”, Durham Constabulary said.
A man in his 50s was found to have been shot and despite the efforts of paramedics he was pronounced dead at the scene.
His family have been told and are being supported by specially trained officers.
Specialist crime scene investigators are at the scene, and officers are carrying out house-to-house enquiries.
A cordon is in place and is expected to stay there for some time.
Detective Superintendent Neil Fuller said: “This is a truly shocking incident in which a man has been shot and has sadly died.”
He added: “Residents may see an increased police presence in the area. I would like to thank them for their support while we carry out this investigation.
“Our thoughts are with the man’s family at this time.”