The cost of the government’s plan to clamp down on Channel migrant crossings could amount to more than £9billion in the first three years, according to a refugee charity.
The estimates, from the Refugee Council, are based on up to 250,000 people having their asylum claims deemed inadmissible in the first three years under the Illegal Migration Bill.
The charity, which has publicly opposed the legislation, also estimates 10,000 people per year being sent to Rwanda.
“In total, between £8.7 billion and £9.6 billion will have been spent on detaining and accommodating people impacted by the Bill in the first three years of its operation,” the charity said.
However, the government says it “does not recognise” the figures used in the Refugee Council’s report.
The Home Office also says the current asylum system costs £3billion a year, including around £6million a day on hotel accommodation.
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‘We are being forced’ into Rwanda plan
The Refugee Council’s policy experts came up with the estimates as part of an impact assessment of the consequences of the first three years of the Illegal Migration Bill.
“In the first three years of the legislation coming into effect, between 225,347 and 257,101 people will have their asylum claims deemed inadmissible. This includes between 39,500 and 45,066 children,” it said in its assessment.
“At the end of the third year, between 161,147 and 192,670 people will have had their asylum claims deemed inadmissible but not have been removed.
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“They will be unable to have their asylum claims processed, unable to work and will be reliant on Home Office support and accommodation indefinitely.”
‘We do not recognise these figures’
The charity estimates the Home Office being able to remove 10,000 people to Rwanda in each of the three years, detaining people for an average of 28 days and accommodating those who are not detained.
The charity said it used available data and some assumptions to come up with the cost figure.
Among the assumptions are that 88% of people who cross the Channel in a small boat each year will subsequently apply for asylum and it costs £120.42 to detain someone each day.
However, it said its cost estimates are likely to still be conservative “based on our experience at the Refugee Council of working with people who arrive in the UK”.
Responding to the Refugee Council’s analysis, a Home Office spokesman said: “We do not recognise the figures used in this report.
“The aim of the Illegal Migration Bill is to act as a deterrent and significantly reduce illegal migration when it comes into force.”
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Why do migrants cross the Channel?
The Home Office currently has a backlog of more than 160,000 immigration cases and only a small number of countries available to which the government can send failed asylum seekers.
The Illegal Migration Bill grants the government the power to deny asylum applications from those who have entered the UK illegally, most notably by arriving in small boats.
The home secretary’s outline of the bill states that if you arrive illegally in the UK “you will be detained with no recourse to immigration bail or judicial review within the first 28 days”.
It adds: “We can maintain detention thereafter so long as we have a reasonable prospect of removal.”
People in immigration detention in the UK are housed at immigration removal centres, residential short-term holding facilities or holding rooms at ports and airports.
The government also routinely houses refugees in hotels and hostels but the prime minister said in December this will stop and “disused holiday parks, surplus military sites and university halls” will be used instead.
Rwanda flights ‘by the summer’
It comes after a government source told Sky News that it hoped to start getting deportation flights to Rwanda “by the summer”.
The home secretary signed an update to the government’s migrants agreement with the central African country last weekend, expanding its scope to “all categories of people who pass through safe countries and make illegal and dangerous journeys to the UK”.
A Home Office statement said it would allow the government to deliver on its new Illegal Migration Bill as it would mean those coming to the UK illegally, who “cannot be returned to their home country”, will be “in scope to be relocated to Rwanda”.
No one has made the journey yet.
A flight was stopped at the eleventh hour in June last year after an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights.
Earlier this month, the prime minister announced a package that will see a new detention centre established in France as well as the deployment of more French personnel and enhanced technology to patrol beaches in a shared effort to drive down illegal migration.
Donald Trump has doubled down on his criticism of Vladimir Putin – adding he will know soon if the Russian leader is just “tapping” him along.
The US president told reporters at the White House that he believed his counterpart in Moscow may be intentionally delaying ceasefire talks, while he also expressed disappointment at heavy Russian bombing over the weekend.
While Mr Trump has so far stopped short of imposing sanctions – to avoid, he says, “screwing up” negotiations – he warned his stance could change.
The president said: “We’re going to find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not, and if he is, we’ll respond a little differently,” adding that he “can’t tell you” if Mr Putin wanted peace.
Image: Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
His comments in the Oval Office came minutes after Russia’s foreign minister announced that the Kremlin had offered Ukraine a second round of talks on 2 June in Istanbul.
Kyiv did not immediately respond to the proposal, which Sergei Lavrov said would see Moscow hand their proposals for a potential peace deal directly to Ukraine.
“We hope that all those who are sincerely, and not just in words, interested in the success of the peace process will support holding a new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul,” Mr Lavrov added.
Later on Wednesday, Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov said his government was “not against” further meetings, but called for Russia to deliver its memorandum to Kyiv beforehand.
The words that suggest Russia’s proposal for talks are just for show
By being the first to propose a date and location for the second round of direct talks, Russia is trying to portray itself as the principal driver towards peace.
Its recent barrage of attacks on Ukraine have drawn harsh words from Donald Trump.
This is an attempt to soothe his concerns and to show Washington that Moscow is still interested in a deal.
But it feels much more performative than anything else, because Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s statement makes it clear that Russia’s position hasn’t softened one bit.
Referring to a memorandum outlining the contours of a settlement, he said it details “all aspects of reliably overcoming the root causes of the crisis”.
In Moscow’s opinion, the “root causes” of the conflict were NATO expansion and the persecution of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.
So, if that’s the basis of its memorandum, then the document will essentially be a list of Moscow’s maximalist demands, including permanent neutrality for Ukraine.
Lavrov also confirmed that Russia’s delegation will again be led by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, who Kyiv last time dismissed as being too junior for the talks to achieve anything meaningful.
Expectations of a breakthrough at round two will be similarly low.
Meanwhile, Mr Lavrov also hit out at Germany for agreeing to finance the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine, accusing Berlin of showing it is “already a participant in the war”.
However, German leader Friedrich Merz declined to say that his country would hand over the Taurus missiles that Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who was in Berlin on Wednesday – has long wanted.
Ukraine’s need for ammunition has become all the more urgent after Russia launched some of the largest aerial assaults of the war so far over the weekend.
Hamas’s Gaza chief Mohammed Sinwar has been “eliminated”, according to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
But Israeli military sources have said they are not yet able to confirm the death.
Hamas has also not yet confirmed the apparent killing of its leader.
Meanwhile, with Gaza on the brink of famine, the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations broke down in tears as he spoke of the suffering of its people.
Image: Palestinian ambassador Riyad Mansour broke down in tears as he spoke of the suffering of people in Gaza
Riyah Mansour told the Security Council: “Children are dying of starvation. The images of mothers embracing their motionless bodies. Caressing their hair, talking to them, apologising to them, is unbearable.”
He added: “I have grandchildren.I know what they mean to their families. And to see this situation over the Palestinians without us having hearts to do something is beyond the ability of any normal human being to tolerate. Flames and hunger are devouring Palestinian children. This is why we are so outraged as Palestinians everywhere.”
Sinwar was one of Israel‘s most wanted and the younger brother of the Palestinian militant group’s former leader Yahya Sinwar.
The older sibling was the mastermind of the October 7 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people in Israel, with around 250 others taken hostage into Gaza.
The attack triggered Israel’s assault on Gaza which decimated the territory, with more than 53,000 people killed, mostly women and children, and over two million displaced, according to health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants in their tally of fatalities.
Image: Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israel in October 2024. File pic: AP
Speaking to the Knesset on Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu included Mohammed Sinwar in a list of Hamas leaders killed in Israeli strikes. Later, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) sources said they were not yet able to confirm the death.
The prime minister said: “We have killed tens of thousands of terrorists. We killed (Mohammed) Deif, (Ismail) Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Sinwar.” He did not elaborate.
Image: Benjamin Netanyahu’s claimed could not be confirmed. Pic: AP
The Israeli military had said it struck a Hamas command centre under the European Hospital in the Sinwars’ hometown of Khan Younis, and it declined to comment on whether Sinwar was targeted or killed.
At least six people were killed in the strike and 40 wounded, Gaza’s health ministry said at the time.
Sinwar rose through ranks
Like his older brother, Mohammed Sinwar joined Hamas after it was founded in the late 1980s as the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. He became a member of the group’s military wing, known as the Qassam Brigades.
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Sinwar rose through the ranks to become a member of its so-called joint chiefs of staff, bringing him close to its longtime commander, Deif, who was killed in a strike last year.
“In the last two days, we have been in a dramatic turn towards a complete defeat of Hamas,” the Israeli leader told the Knesset.
Mr Netanyahu also spoke about how Israel was “taking control of food distribution”, a reference to a new aid distribution system that has been criticised and boycotted by humanitarian groups and the UN.
One killed at site of aid hub
The development comes after one person was killed and 48 others injured when forces opened fire on a crowd that overwhelmed an aid hub in Gaza, according to local health officials.
Palestinians have become increasingly desperate for food after almost three months of Israeli border closures. A blockade has recently been eased.
People broke through fences around the distribution site on Wednesday, and a journalist with the Associated Press said they heard Israeli tank and gunfire, and saw a military helicopter firing flares.
It was not yet known whether the death and injuries were caused by Israeli forces, private contractors or others.
The Israeli and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which set up the hub outside Rafah, said its military contractors had not fired on the crowd but “fell back” before resuming aid operations. Israel said its troops nearby had fired warning shots.
The UN and other humanitarian organisations have rejected the new system, saying it will not meet the needs of Gaza’s 2.3 million people and allows Israel to use food to control the population.
Israel has vowed to seize control of Gaza and fight until Hamas is destroyed or disarmed and exiled, and until the militant group returns the last 58 hostages, including around a third thought to be still alive.
‘This is a man-made catastrophe’
Meanwhile, a US trauma surgeon who has been working in Gaza urged the UN Security Council to not “claim ignorance” about the humanitarian devastation.
Dr Feroze Sidhwa said: “Let’s not forget, this is a man-made catastrophe. It is entirely preventable. Participating in it or not allowing it to happen is a choice.
“This is a deliberate denial of conditions necessary for life: food, shelter, water and medicine. Preventing genocide means refusing to normalise these atrocities.”
The UN World Health Organization has documented around 700 attacks on healthcare facilities in Gaza during the war. Israel accuses Hamas of using hospitals as command centres and to hide fighters.
Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan Tate have been charged with rape and other offences in the UK.
Andrew Tate, 38, faces 10 charges, including rape, actual bodily harm, human trafficking and controlling prostitution for gain, relating to three women.
His brother Tristan Tate, 36, faces 11 charges relating to one woman – including rape, actual bodily harm and human trafficking.
The charges were authorised in January 2024, but full details have only been released now.
Bedfordshire Police issued an international arrest warrant for the brothers over allegations, which they “unequivocally deny”, said to have occurred between 2012 and 2015.
The Tate brothers are facing separate allegations of trafficking minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering in Romania.
They are also accused of human trafficking and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women in a different case, which has been sent back to prosecutors.
They are due to be extradited to the UK following the conclusion of proceedings in Romania.
Image: Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan outside a Bucharest court in January. File pic: Inquam Photos/Octav Ganea via Reuters
A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) spokesperson said: “We can confirm that we have authorised charges against Andrew and Tristan Tate for offences including rape, human trafficking, controlling prostitution and actual bodily harm against three women.
“These charging decisions followed receipt of a file of evidence from Bedfordshire Police.
“A European Arrest Warrant was issued in England in 2024, and as a result the Romanian courts ordered the extradition to the UK of Andrew and Tristan Tate.”
The spokesperson added: “However, the domestic criminal matters in Romania must be settled first.
“The Crown Prosecution Service reminds everyone that criminal proceedings are active, and the defendants have the right to a fair trial.
“It is extremely important that there be no reporting, commentary or sharing of information online which could in any way prejudice these proceedings.”
Representatives for Andrew Tate have been contacted by Sky News for comment.
Lawyer Matt Jury, of McCue Jury & Partners, representing several alleged British victims of Andrew Tate, said: “We welcome the clarity from the Crown Prosecution Service that our authorities are working to ensure the Tates face justice here in the UK – they cannot be allowed to escape extradition.
“At the same time, we ask once more that CPS admit its mistake in failing to prosecute Tate when he lived in the UK and finally charge him for the rape and assault of the other three women, our clients, who originally filed criminal complaints against him as long ago as 2014 but were failed by the system.
“They deserve justice, too.”
The allegations were subject to a police investigation, which was closed in 2019.