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The cost of the government’s plan to clamp down on Channel migrant crossings could amount to more than £9billion in the first three years, according to a refugee charity.

The estimates, from the Refugee Council, are based on up to 250,000 people having their asylum claims deemed inadmissible in the first three years under the Illegal Migration Bill.

The charity, which has publicly opposed the legislation, also estimates 10,000 people per year being sent to Rwanda.

“In total, between £8.7 billion and £9.6 billion will have been spent on detaining and accommodating people impacted by the Bill in the first three years of its operation,” the charity said.

However, the government says it “does not recognise” the figures used in the Refugee Council’s report.

The Home Office also says the current asylum system costs £3billion a year, including around £6million a day on hotel accommodation.

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‘We are being forced’ into Rwanda plan

The Refugee Council’s policy experts came up with the estimates as part of an impact assessment of the consequences of the first three years of the Illegal Migration Bill.

“In the first three years of the legislation coming into effect, between 225,347 and 257,101 people will have their asylum claims deemed inadmissible. This includes between 39,500 and 45,066 children,” it said in its assessment.

“At the end of the third year, between 161,147 and 192,670 people will have had their asylum claims deemed inadmissible but not have been removed.

“They will be unable to have their asylum claims processed, unable to work and will be reliant on Home Office support and accommodation indefinitely.”

‘We do not recognise these figures’

The charity estimates the Home Office being able to remove 10,000 people to Rwanda in each of the three years, detaining people for an average of 28 days and accommodating those who are not detained.

The charity said it used available data and some assumptions to come up with the cost figure.

Among the assumptions are that 88% of people who cross the Channel in a small boat each year will subsequently apply for asylum and it costs £120.42 to detain someone each day.

However, it said its cost estimates are likely to still be conservative “based on our experience at the Refugee Council of working with people who arrive in the UK”.

Responding to the Refugee Council’s analysis, a Home Office spokesman said: “We do not recognise the figures used in this report.

“The aim of the Illegal Migration Bill is to act as a deterrent and significantly reduce illegal migration when it comes into force.”

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Why do migrants cross the Channel?

The Home Office currently has a backlog of more than 160,000 immigration cases and only a small number of countries available to which the government can send failed asylum seekers.

The Illegal Migration Bill grants the government the power to deny asylum applications from those who have entered the UK illegally, most notably by arriving in small boats.

The home secretary’s outline of the bill states that if you arrive illegally in the UK “you will be detained with no recourse to immigration bail or judicial review within the first 28 days”.

It adds: “We can maintain detention thereafter so long as we have a reasonable prospect of removal.”

Read more:
Asylum seekers are going ‘underground’ in fear of being deported to Rwanda
Is the government’s new Illegal Migration Bill legal?

People in immigration detention in the UK are housed at immigration removal centres, residential short-term holding facilities or holding rooms at ports and airports.

The government also routinely houses refugees in hotels and hostels but the prime minister said in December this will stop and “disused holiday parks, surplus military sites and university halls” will be used instead.

Rwanda flights ‘by the summer’

It comes after a government source told Sky News that it hoped to start getting deportation flights to Rwanda “by the summer”.

The home secretary signed an update to the government’s migrants agreement with the central African country last weekend, expanding its scope to “all categories of people who pass through safe countries and make illegal and dangerous journeys to the UK”.

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A Home Office statement said it would allow the government to deliver on its new Illegal Migration Bill as it would mean those coming to the UK illegally, who “cannot be returned to their home country”, will be “in scope to be relocated to Rwanda”.

No one has made the journey yet.

A flight was stopped at the eleventh hour in June last year after an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights.

Earlier this month, the prime minister announced a package that will see a new detention centre established in France as well as the deployment of more French personnel and enhanced technology to patrol beaches in a shared effort to drive down illegal migration.

Throughout 2022, some 45,728 people crossed to the UK via the Channel – up 60% on the previous year.

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Former UN chief’s labelling of Gaza war as ‘genocide’ marks extraordinary shift

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Former UN chief's labelling of Gaza war as 'genocide' marks extraordinary shift

In a stark and direct intervention, Martin Griffiths, the former UN humanitarian chief, has described the situation in Gaza as genocide.

The statement, made during an interview I conducted with Griffiths on The World, marks one of the most pointed accusations yet from a figure known to be deeply embedded in the world of international politics and diplomacy.

“I think now we’ve got to the point this is unequivocal. Of course it is genocide. Just as it is weaponising aid.

“We don’t need to look behind ourselves to see that’s the case. That should encourage us even more because we, of course, all doubted whether it would come to that level of definition.

“We all doubted whether famine is actually there. I think starvation is killing people. That’s bad enough. We don’t have to worry about famine, which is obviously there lurking in the shadows.

“Also, genocide… of course that’s what has happened. We only need to look at the statements made. Prime Minister Netanyahu has the virtue of being very clear about his objectives.”

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Ex-Israeli aide dismisses genocide claims

His choice of words is extraordinary – not just for its gravity, but because it’s Griffiths who is saying it.

A veteran diplomat with decades of experience navigating complex international crises, Griffiths is known for his calm and thoughtful demeanour – not for inflammatory language.

For him to use the term “genocide” in a television interview signals a significant shift in how some within the international system are now interpreting events on the ground in Gaza – 20 months since Israel launched its war.

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‘We carry our coffins with us’

Read more:
How Gaza’s new aid rollout system collapsed into chaos
Israel’s illegal settlements – and those fighting back

The timing is also noteworthy.

Just weeks earlier, Tom Fletcher, another respected former British ambassador and current UN humanitarian chief, came close to using the phrase during a UN Security Council session.

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He said: “What more evidence do you need now? Will you act decisively to prevent genocide and to ensure respect for international humanitarian law? Or will you say instead: ‘we did all we could?'”

Whilst he stopped short, his tone showed a clear change in how leading international figures now view the direction of Israeli military operations in Gaza; staggering civilian deaths, and the statements made by Israeli officials prosecuting this war.

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In full: The World with Yalda Hakim

Griffiths’ remarks now go a step further.

It comes as the British government continues to grapple with public anger over the mounting civilian toll – and faces growing scrutiny over its continued arms exports to Israel.

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Children ‘should be treated in UK’

This latest statement by Griffiths doesn’t just reflect humanitarian concern.

As a former ambassador, he knows the weight his words carry.

And with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsening, his warning challenges Israel’s allies to ask deeply uncomfortable questions.

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Lawyers representing Israel against accusations brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice last year – accusing its actions in Gaza of amounting to genocide – called the claims “unfounded”, “absurd” and amounting to “libel”.

They went on to say Israel respected international law and had a right to defend itself.

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More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

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More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

Well over a third of Europe, including parts of holiday destinations like Spain, Greece and Italy, are now in drought.

March was Europe’s warmest on record – a trend driven by climate change – and also saw below average rain across large parts of the north and east of the continent.

Now 41.2% of Europe finds itself in some form of drought, according to the latest update from the EU’s European Drought Observatory, which covers 11 to 20 May.

It is most acute in pockets of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece and Albania, where the strongest “alert” category has been issued, as well as parts of Poland and Ukraine.

But broad stretches of northern and eastern Europe through France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine also drying up, sowing concerns about crop yields.

On Thursday, the UK’s Environment Agency officially declared a drought in North West England after river and reservoir levels were licked away by a dry spring.

More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS /  EDO
Image:
More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS / EDO

Heat was record high in March in Europe, while the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Image:
Heat was record high in March in Europe. The image on the right shows the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service

Greece tourism is ‘unsustainable’

In Greece, “overtourism” from millions flocking to its beaches adds further pressure to water supplies, said Nikitas Mylopoulos, professor of water resource management at Thessaly University.

“The tourist sector is unsustainable and there is no planning… leading to a tremendous rise in water demand in summer,” he told Sky News.

“The islands have an intense problem of drought and water scarcity.”

Islands like Santorini and Mykonos are now forced to ship in water from Athens or desalination plants to provide for showers and swimming pools. In the past, many residents could make do with local methods like rainwater harvesting.

But agriculture is a far bigger drain on the country’s water, with waste rife and policies lacking, said Prof Mylopoulos.

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‘Tropical nights’ soar in European hotspots

Wildfire season could be ‘particularly difficult’

This year’s hot and dry conditions are also fuelling the risk of yet another fierce wildfire season in Greece.

Last week civil protection minister Ioannis Kefalogiannis warned of a “particularly difficult” summer.

He said a record 18,000 firefighters have been deployed and the drone fleet almost doubled in a bid to combat fires being fuelled by a hotter climate.

Droughts and their causes are more complicated, but scientists at World Weather Attribution say global warming is exacerbating drought in some parts of the world, including around the Mediterranean.

A family of geese walk across a partially dried-out section of the bed of the Woodhead Reservoir after a prolonged period without rain, which resulted in water levels dropping, near Tintwistle, Britain, May 13, 2025. REUTERS/Phil Noble
Image:
A drought was declared in northwest England on Thursday. Pic: Reuters

They found the drought of 2022, which spread across the Northern Hemisphere, was made 20 times more likely by climate change.

The International Hydropower Association said drought and intense rain in Europe are pushing power plants to “operate at the limits of their existing equipment”.

Extreme weather costs the EU about €28.3bn (£23.8bn) in lost crops and livestock per year, according to insurance firm Howden.

Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, said: “With global warming, we expect more prolonged and intense droughts and heatwaves punctuated by more intense rainfall, possibly causing flash floods.

“In recent years, we have experienced more of these atmospheric blocks, causing record heat and persistent drought, as well as severe flooding in other locations in Europe.

“Recent months have been no different, with prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves in northern Europe and floods in southern Europe.”

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Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

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Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

At least 117 people have died and others are still missing after heavy flooding in Nigeria, an emergency official said.

Authorities initially said 21 people had died but this figure has today risen significantly.

Media reports quoting local government officials said a dam collapse has worsened the situation.

Ibrahim Hussaini, head of Niger State Emergency Management Agency, said some 3,000 houses were underwater in two communities.

Videos posted on social media show floodwater sweeping through neighbourhoods, with rooftops barely visible above the brown currents. One clip shows a tanker floating through a town.

A tanker is swept away by floodwaters in Mokwa, Nigeria
Image:
A tanker is swept away by floodwaters


The chairman of the Mokwa local government area suggested poor infrastructure has worsened the impact of the flooding.

Jibril Muregi has appealed to the government to start “long overdue” construction of waterways in the area under a climate resilience project.

More on Climate Change

Flooding in Niger, Nigeria
Image:
Water appears to be flowing over a dam behind the town

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In a similar occurrence last September, torrential rains and a dam collapse in Nigeria’s northeastern Maiduguri caused severe flooding, leaving at least 30 people dead and displacing millions.

Nigeria is prone to flooding during the rainy season, which began in April – and flooding is becoming more common and extreme as the climate warms.

Read more:
More than 40% of Europe slides into drought
How melting ice is boosting Russia’s military

Hotter air is thirstier and can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1C warmer – meaning it unleashes heavier flooding when it rains.

Violent rain, which killed hundreds of people in Nigeria during 2022, was made at least 80 times more likely and 20% more intense by climate change, analysis by World Weather Attribution found.

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