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The rate of inflation has taken a surprise leap, driven by a rising cost of alcoholic drinks in pubs and food – partly a consequence of the recent salad shortage.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) calculated the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation at 10.4% over the 12 months to February.

That was up from an annual rate of 10.1% the previous month, dashing expectations of an easing that has been seen since the 41-year high of 11.1% in October last year, as the cost of living crisis gathered steam.

At that time, unprecedented energy prices were being swallowed by businesses and households alike amid the war in Ukraine despite financial support from the government.

Since then, wholesale energy costs have gradually eased.

However, it takes time for those to filter down through the economy to goods and services.

Some supply chains are also complicated by related factors such as wider commodity cost shifts and shortages, such as the lack of tomatoes and other veg items that struck in February but has since eased.

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ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation ticked up in February mainly driven by rising alcohol prices in pubs and restaurants following discounting in January.

“Food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose to their highest rate in over 45 years with particular increases for some salad and vegetable items as high energy costs and bad weather across parts of Europe led to shortages and rationing.

“These were partially offset by falls in the cost of motor fuel, where the annual inflation rate has eased for seven consecutive months.”

The latest figures come after Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said in last week’s budget that the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast inflation would fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023.

Interest rate hike ahead?

The inflation data will also be closely watched by the Bank of England ahead of its next interest rate decision on Thursday, which had been thought to be finely balanced in advance of the figures.

But financial markets now firmly believe that policymakers will raise Bank rate again though slow the pace of increase – helping the pound make some gains.

A Reuters poll of economists also expects a 0.25 percentage point hike to 4.25% following February’s rise of 0.5 percentage points.

Like the European Central Bank last week, the Bank’s monetary policy committee is expected to send a clear signal that it is focused fully on inflation and not worried by the effect its rate rises have had on bank balance sheets amid the recent turmoil for shares in the sector.

There had been a popular school of thought, ahead of Wednesday’s data, that the Bank would pause for breath after consistently raising rates since December 2021.

That was because core CPI inflation figures, which strip out volatile elements such as energy, had undershot the Bank’s most recent forecasts.

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Private sector wage growth had done the same.

The latest inflation figures showed core inflation rising to 6.2% from 5.8% in January.

Mr Hunt said of the inflation spike: “Falling inflation isn’t inevitable, so we need to stick to our plan to halve it this year.

“We recognise just how tough things are for families across the country, so as we work towards getting inflation under control we will help families with cost of living support worth £3,300 on average per household this year.”

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Sainsburys profits top £1bn after closing all cafes and cutting 3,000 jobs

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Sainsburys profits top £1bn after closing all cafes and cutting 3,000 jobs

Annual profits at the UK’s second biggest supermarket, Sainsbury’s, have reached £1bn.

The supermarket chain reported that sales and profits grew over the year to March.

It also comes after Sainsbury’s announced in January plans to close of all of its in-store cafes and the loss of 3,000 jobs.

But the high profits are not expected to increase, according to Sainsbury’s, which warned of heightened competition as a supermarket price war heats up.

Tesco too warned of “intensification of competition” last week, as Asda’s executive chairman earlier this year committed to foregoing profits in favour of price cuts.

Sainsbury’s said it had spent £1bn lowering prices, leading to a “record-breaking year in grocery”, its highest market share gain in more than a decade, as more people chose Sainsbury’s for their main shop.

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It’s the second most popular supermarket with market share of ahead of Asda but below Tesco, according to latest industry figures from market research company Kantar.

In the same year, the supermarket announced plans to cut more than 3,000 jobs and the closure of its remaining 61 in-store cafes as well as hot food, patisserie, and pizza counters, to save money in a “challenging cost environment”.

This financial year, profits are forecast to be around £1bn again, in line with the £1.036bn in retail underlying operating profit announced today for the year ended in March.

The grocer has been a vocal critic of the government’s increase in employer national insurance contributions and said in January it would incur an additional £140m as a result of the hike.

Higher national insurance bills are not captured by the annual results published on Thursday, as they only took effect in April, outside of the 2024 to 2025 financial year.

Supermarkets gearing up for a price war and not bulking profits further could be good news for prices of shelves, according to online investment planner AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould.

“The main winners in a price war would ultimately be shoppers”, he said.

“Like Tesco, Sainsbury’s wants to equip itself to protect its competitive position, hence its guidance for flat profit in the coming year as it looks to offer customers value for money.”

There has been, however, a warning from Sainsbury’s that higher national insurance contributions will bring costs up for consumers.

News shops are planned in “key target locations”, Sainsbury’s results said, which, along with further openings, “provides a unique opportunity to drive further market share gains”.

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US markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn new restrictions on China exports

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US markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn new restrictions on China exports

US stock markets suffered more significant losses on Wednesday, with stocks in leading AI chipmakers slumping after firms said new restrictions on exports to China would cost them billions.

Nvidia fell 6.87% – and was at one point down 10% – after revealing it would now need a US government licence to sell its H20 chip.

Rival chipmaker AMD slumped 7.35% after it predicted a $800m (£604m) charge due to its MI308 also needing a licence.

Dutch firm ASML, which makes hardware essential to chip manufacturing, fell more than 5% after it missed order expectations and said US tariffs created uncertainty.

The losses filtered into the tech-dominated Nasdaq index, which recovered slightly to end 3% down, while the larger S&P 500 fell 2.2%.

A board above the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, shows the closing number for the Dow Jones industrial average Wednesday, April 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
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Pic: AP

Such losses would have been among the worst in years were it not for the turmoil over recent weeks.

It comes as China remains the focus of Donald Trump’s tariff regime, with both countries imposing tit-for-tat charges of over 100% on imports.

The US commerce department said in a statement it was “committed to acting on the president’s directive to safeguard our national and economic security”.

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Nvidia’s bespoke China chip is already deliberately less powerful than products sold elsewhere after intervention from the previous Biden administration.

However, the Trump government is worried the H20 and others could still be used to build a supercomputer in China, threatening national security and US dominance in AI.

Nvidia said the move would cost it around $5.5bn (£4.1bn) and the licensing requirement would be in place for the “indefinite future”.

Nvidia’s recently announced a $500bn (£378bn) investment to build infrastructure in America – something Mr Trump heralded as a victory in his mission to boost US manufacturing.

However, it appears to have been too little to stave off the new restrictions.

Pressure has also come from the Democrats, with senator Elizabeth Warren writing to the commerce secretary and urging him to limit chip sales to China.

Meanwhile, the head of US central bank also warned on Wednesday that US tariffs could slow the economy and raise inflation more than expected.

Jerome Powell said the bank would need more time to decide on lowering interest rates.

“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” he said.

“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

Predictions of a recession in the US have risen significantly since the president revealed details of the import taxes a few weeks ago.

However, he subsequently paused the higher rates for 90 days to allow for negotiations.

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

Inflation fell more than expected and for the second month in a row, official figures show.

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February and 3% in January, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.

It means prices are rising at the slowest pace since December and closest to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

 

The rate is also lower than expected by economists polled by Reuters, who anticipated inflation of 2.7%.

But the drop is likely to be short-lived as a raft of bill rises kicked in at the start of April.

Energy, water, and council tax bills rose throughout the UK at the start of this month.

Why did inflation fall?

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It was a fall in fuel costs, thanks to lower oil prices that led to the surprise drop, combined with the unchanged food price rise.

The price of games, toys and hobbies, as well as data processing equipment, all fell.

These drops counteracted a “strong” rise in the price of clothes, the ONS said.

The late timing of Easter also meant comparing March 2024 – as the ONS does with its annual inflation rise figure – with March 2025 isn’t comparing like with like.

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Easter and the associated school break bring things like higher airfares and hotel costs, something that was not seen last month as the feast takes place in April this year.

What does this mean for interest rates?

All measures of inflation fell, in a boost to the Bank of England as they mull interest rate cuts.

A key way of assessing price rises, core inflation, which excludes volatile price items like fuel and food, dropped to 3.4%.

It’s closely watched by the rate setters at the Bank of England, who meet next month and are widely expected to make borrowing less expensive by bringing interest rates down to 4.25%.

Another important measure – services inflation – dropped to 4.7% from 5% in February. As a predominantly services-based economy, a drop in that rate is good news for central bankers and households.

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Inflation data, combined with the fact job vacancies are at pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021, has meant traders are now expecting four interest rate cuts this year, which would bring the base interest rate to 3.5% by December.

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