The rate of inflation has taken a surprise leap, driven by a rising cost of alcoholic drinks in pubs and food – partly a consequence of the recent salad shortage.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) calculated the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation at 10.4% over the 12 months to February.
That was up from an annual rate of 10.1% the previous month, dashing expectations of an easing that has been seen since the 41-year high of 11.1% in October last year, as the cost of living crisis gathered steam.
At that time, unprecedented energy prices were being swallowed by businesses and households alike amid the war in Ukraine despite financial support from the government.
Since then, wholesale energy costs have gradually eased.
However, it takes time for those to filter down through the economy to goods and services.
Some supply chains are also complicated by related factors such as wider commodity cost shifts and shortages, such as the lack of tomatoes and other veg items that struck in February but has since eased.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:06
Feb: Why tomato production was delayed
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation ticked up in February mainly driven by rising alcohol prices in pubs and restaurants following discounting in January.
“Food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose to their highest rate in over 45 years with particular increases for some salad and vegetable items as high energy costs and bad weather across parts of Europe led to shortages and rationing.
Advertisement
“These were partially offset by falls in the cost of motor fuel, where the annual inflation rate has eased for seven consecutive months.”
The latest figures come after Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said in last week’s budget that the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast inflation would fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023.
Interest rate hike ahead?
The inflation data will also be closely watched by the Bank of England ahead of its next interest rate decision on Thursday, which had been thought to be finely balanced in advance of the figures.
But financial markets now firmly believe that policymakers will raise Bank rate again though slow the pace of increase – helping the pound make some gains.
A Reuters poll of economists also expects a 0.25 percentage point hike to 4.25% following February’s rise of 0.5 percentage points.
Like the European Central Bank last week, the Bank’s monetary policy committee is expected to send a clear signal that it is focused fully on inflation and not worried by the effect its rate rises have had on bank balance sheets amid the recent turmoil for shares in the sector.
There had been a popular school of thought, ahead of Wednesday’s data, that the Bank would pause for breath after consistently raising rates since December 2021.
That was because core CPI inflation figures, which strip out volatile elements such as energy, had undershot the Bank’s most recent forecasts.
The latest inflation figures showed core inflation rising to 6.2% from 5.8% in January.
Mr Hunt said of the inflation spike: “Falling inflation isn’t inevitable, so we need to stick to our plan to halve it this year.
“We recognise just how tough things are for families across the country, so as we work towards getting inflation under control we will help families with cost of living support worth £3,300 on average per household this year.”
The US ambassador to the UK has said Britain should carry out “more drilling and more production” in the North Sea.
In his first broadcast interview in the job, Warren Stephens urged the UK to make the most of its own oil and gas reserves to cut energy costs and boost the economy.
“I want the UK economy to be as strong as it possibly can be, so the UK can be the best ally to the US that it possibly can be.
“Having a growing economy is essential to that – and the electricity costs make it very difficult.”
Mr Stephens told Wilfred Frost he hoped Britain would “examine the policies in the North Sea and frankly, make some changes to it that allows for more drilling and more production”.
“You’re using oil and gas, but you’re importing it. Why not use your own?” he asked.
More on Fossil Fuels
Related Topics:
Image: Mr Stephens said Britain should make more of its own oil and gas
The ambassador said he had held meetings with Sir Keir Starmer on the energy issue while US President Donald Trump was in the room, and that the prime minister was “absolutely” listening to the US view.
“I think there are members of the government that are listening,” Mr Stephens told Sky News. “There is a little bit of movement to make changes on the policy and I’ll hope that will continue.”
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has said the UK should be prioritising net zero by 2030 to limit climate change, rather than issuing new oil and gas drilling licences.
Image: The Thistle Alpha platform, north of Shetland, stopped production in 2020 . Pic: Reuters/Petrofac
However, the ambassador said it would take “all energy for all countries to compete” in the future, given the huge power demands of data centres and AI.
“I don’t think Ed Miliband is necessarily wrong,” said Mr Stephens. “But I think it’s an incorrect policy to ignore your fossil fuel reserves, both in the North Sea and onshore.”
The ambassador hosted Mr Trump on the first night of his second UK state visitin September – a trip that was seen as a success by both sides.
Mr Stephens said Mr Trump and Sir Keir had a “great relationship” and pointed to the historic ties between Britain and the US as a major factor in June’s trade deal and the favourable tariff rate on the UK.
Image: The ambassador said Sir Keir and President Trump have a ‘great relationship’
“The president really loves this country,” the ambassador told Sky News.
“I don’t think it’s coincidental that the tariff rates on the UK are generally a third, or at worst half, of what a lot of other countries are facing.
“I think the prime minister and his team did a great job of positioning the United Kingdom to be the first trade deal, but also the best one that’s been struck.”
Mr Stephens – who began his job in London in May – also touched on the Ukraine war and said Mr Trump’s patience with Russia was “wearing thin”.
The Alaska summit between Mr Trump and Vladimir Putin failed to produce a breakthrough, and the US leader has admitted the Russian president may be “playing” him so he can continue the fighting.
The ambassador told Sky News he had always favoured a tough stance on Russia and was “delighted” when Mr Trump sanctioned Russia’s two biggest oil firms a few weeks ago.
‘The incorrect policy’ – That’s Trumpian diplomacy for you
“You’re using oil and gas, but you’re importing it. Why not use your own?”
It’s a reasonable question for President Trump’s top representative here in the UK – ambassador Warren Stephens – to ask, particularly given that our exclusive interview was taking place in the UK’s oil capital, Aberdeen.
The ambassador told me that he and President Trump have repeatedly lobbied Prime Minister Starmer on the topic, and somewhat strikingly said the PM was “absolutely listening”, adding: “I think there are certainly members of the government that are listening. And there is a little bit of movement to make some changes to the policy.”
Well, one member of the government who is seemingly not listening, and happens to be spending most of this week at the UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil, is Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
“It’s going to take all energy for all countries to compete in the 21st century for AI and data centres,” the ambassador told me. “And so, I don’t think Ed Miliband is necessarily wrong, but I think it’s an incorrect policy to ignore your fossil fuel reserves, both in the North Sea and onshore.”
Not wrong, but the incorrect policy. That’s Trumpian diplomacy for you.
His comments on Russia, China and free speech were also fascinating. On the latter, he said that in the US someone might get “cancelled for saying something, but they’re not going to get arrested.”
“The president, has been, I would say, careful in ramping up pressure on Russia. But I think his patience is wearing out,” said Mr Stephens.
“One of the problems is a lot of European countries still depend on Russian gas,” he added.
“We’re mindful of that. We understand that, but until we can really cut off their ability to sell oil and gas around the world, they’re going to have money and Putin seems intent on continuing the war.”
The ambassador also struck a cautious but hopeful tone on future US and UK relations with China.
China’s huge economy is too big to ignore – but it remains a major spy threat; the head of MI5 warned last month of an increase in “state threat activity” from Beijing (as well as Russia and Iran).
Mr Stephens praised the country’s economy and said it would be “terrific” if China could one day be considered a partner.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:50
Trump-Xi meeting: Three key takeaways
But he warned “impatient” China is ruthlessly focused on itself only, and would like to see the US and the West weakened.
“There’s certainly things we want to be able to do with China,” added the ambassador.
“And I know the UK wants to do things with China. The United States does, too – and we should. But I think we always need to keep in the back of our mind that China does not have our interests at heart.”
Ryanair’s boss has accused the chancellor of having no idea how to grow the UK economy as the airline reported hikes to fares had delivered a 42% rise in half-year profits.
Michael O’Leary told Sky’s Mornings with Ridge and Frost programme that Rachel Reeves “hasn’t the rashers how to deliver growth” while taking aim at a planned rise in air passenger duty slated for next April.
He called for the hike, revealed at her first budget last October, to be reversed in her speech to the Commons on 26 November – a budget business believes could further harm investment in jobs and growth.
“Until she starts cutting these insane taxes and stop trying to tax wealth, the UK economy is doomed to continue to fail”, he said.
“But, in a bizarre way, that’s probably good for Ryanair’s business because as people get more price sensitive, more and more of them will fly Ryanair,” he concluded.
Mr O’Leary was speaking after the no frills carrier, which is Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, reported profit after tax in the six months to the end of September came in at €2.54bn (£2.2bn).
More on Ryanair
Related Topics:
The better-than-expected sum followed a second quarter recovery for fares – the cost of a seat before add-ons – in the wake of a 7% decline across its last financial year.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
6:25
July: Ryanair calls on NATS boss to quit
Ryanair said revenues per passenger were up 9% over the six months, helped by a 13% rise in fares and higher revenues from additional things like baggage fees and seat selection.
It reported record passenger numbers of 119 million for the half year – the summer season that tends to be the most profitable – and guided that fares, despite some discounting, were on track to end the financial year on a positive footing.
The airline raised its passenger traffic forecast due to earlier-than-expected deliveries of more efficient Boeing aircraft and strong first-half demand.
Ryanair said it expected to fly 207 million passengers in the year to the end of March, up from an earlier forecast of 206 million.
Mr O’Leary told investors: “While Q3 forward bookings are slightly ahead of (PY) prior year, particularly across the Oct. mid-term and Christmas peaks, we would caution that we face more challenging PY fare comps in H2 (second half) making fare growth more challenging”.
A deal-hungry London-listed marketing group backed by Rupert Murdoch and Lord Ashcroft, the former Tory treasurer, has made a £50m approach to buy a division of M&C Saatchi.
Sky News has learnt that Brave Bison, run by brothers Oli and Theo Green, has tabled a cash-and-stock proposal to acquire M&C Performance.
The target handles media planning and buying across digital channels, a key growth area in the marketing industry.
M&C Performance’s clients include Amazon and Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.
City sources said this weekend that M&C Saatchi had received the offer from Brave Bison but that its response was unclear.
If it progresses, it would be the latest in a string of deals for Brave Bison, which has bought five other businesses this year alone.
Among them was MiniMBA, an e-learning and training business serving marketing and technology professionals, which it bought from Centaur Media.
Brave Bison, whose clients include Primark and Real Madrid, has also bought Engage, a sports marketing specialist.
Any deal for M&C Performance would involve issuing new stock as well as utilising Brave Bison’s debt facilities, banking sources suggested on Sunday.
Brave Bison’s shares have almost doubled during the year to date, while M&C Saatchi’s stock has fallen by 22% during the same period.
The latter has a market capitalisation of roughly £160m, little more than half the value of an offer three years ago which priced it at more than £300m including debt.
Mr Murdoch’s News Corporation took a stake in Brave Bison earlier this year through a combinationn of their influencer marketing divisions.
The Green brothers took over Brave Bison in 2020, and have overseen a sharp strategic realignment and improvement in its performance.
Last year, it bought the podcaster and entrepreneur Steven Bartlett’s social media and influencer agency, SocialChain.
At Friday’s stock market close, Brave Bison had a market capitalisation of about £82m.
Both Brave Bison and M&C Saatchi declined to comment.