close video US economy faces very dire situation if Fed cant keep rates high: Mike Lee
A ‘Word on Wall Street’ panel with Michael Lee Strategy’s Mike Lee, Strategic Wealth Partners’ Mark Tepper, Bulltick Capital’s Kathryn Rooney Vera discuss market trends amid banking collapse volatility.
While some of America’s top banking CEOs discuss a new rescue plan and the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting, one market expert has warned of a "very dire situation" dependent on fiscal policy.
"If the Fed can't keep rates high, if they can't keep raising as they need be, and we have persistently high inflation, we are in a very, very, very, very dire situation," Michael Lee Strategy founder Mike Lee said on "Mornings with Maria" Tuesday.
"So I think the Fed goes 25 basis points. I think how the market reacts depends 100% on what Powell says and reacts to the questions and how the market absorbs that," he continued. "But what I see is not so much as a contagion from banks or some sort of massive solvency crisis, it's what do we do if the Fed can't raise any more, can't keep tightening? It has to ease, so there's no systemic shocks from the banking system."
With a strong market rally underway Tuesday morning, the Fed began discussing its latest interest rate decision. Sixty-two percent of investors expect the policymakers to continue hiking rates, which would mark the ninth straight increase, while 38% expect no change, according to CME's FedWatch.
BANK TURMOIL COULD BRING ‘VICIOUS’ END TO BEAR MARKET, MORGAN STANLEY SAYS
While the Fed under Chairman Jerome Powell has embarked on its most aggressive rate hike path since the 1980s to combat stubbornly high inflation, a recent report written by U.S. economists indicates if history is destined to repeat itself, then the Fed will "find it hard" to avoid a recession later this year.
The Federal Reserve could bring the U.S. economy into a “very dire situation,” Michael Lee Strategy founder Mike Lee said on “Mornings with Maria” Tuesday. (Fox News)
The central bank is also navigating bank-run contagion fears this week, after the recent insolvencies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and potentially First Republic Bank.
Lee signaled the banking and rate hike dilemmas are ones of "confidence," as opposed to structural issues. Image 1 of 4
Markets often react when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks or announces a rate hike decision. | AP Newsroom
"No matter how good the banking laws are, no matter how good the oversight is, no matter how strong your balance sheet is, nobody can withstand a 20 to 25% deposit base withdrawal in a single day, as happened with Silicon Valley Bank," Lee explained. close video The Fed to meet this week to decide possible rate hike
Mercatus Center distinguished fellow Thomas Hoenig discusses how the Fed’s plan for inflation, argues it has been running poorly for years on The Bottom Line.
"So I think the upshot of what just happened is lending standards are most likely going to increase, further slowing the economy," he added.
Also joining the "Word on Wall Street" panel, Bulltick Capital’s chief market strategist Kathryn Rooney Vera agreed with Lee that the Fed will likely raise rates by 25 basis points Wednesday.
"It has to hike 25 basis points. It has a dual mandate, 2% inflation and full employment, it has to comply with that. If they do not hike this week, tomorrow, this is going to be a huge additional shock to credibility and they're very focused on that," Rooney Vera said. "So they have to recoup credibility. If they do not hike 25, I think it will be poorly received by the markets."
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Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz provides insight on the Federal Reserve’s response to record-high inflation on ‘Making Money.’
Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley and a longtime Wall Street bear, said in an analyst note on Monday that the stock market is in the early and painful stages of exiting the bear market than began in the summer.
"The last part of the bear can be vicious and highly correlated," he said. "Prices fall sharply via an equity risk premium spike that is very hard to prevent or defend in one’s portfolio."
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FOX Business’ Megan Henney contributed to this report.
To see Koven’s Katie Boyle perform live is beyond impressive. Hailing from Luton, she is one of the most influential women in drum ‘n’ bass today, an artist who pioneered the art of singing live while DJing.
Although she’s now been doing it for 12 years, her vast knowledge doesn’t silence the trolls online.
“There is a real bad misogyny online against women,” she says of the industry, with plenty of critics refusing to “believe they’re doing what they say they’re doing, and that’s been quite a hard thing to combat”.
Koven is a duo. In the studio, Boyle collaborates with producer Max Rowat; live, she performs and mixes alone. They have just released their second album, Moments In Everglow.
Image: Koven (L-R): Max Rowat and Katie Boyle
While both Boyle and Rowat are equally involved in making tracks, a minority of very vocal fans still refuse to accept she does anything other than sing.
“I will always be accused of the male half doing more on anything to do with technology,” says Boyle. “The amount of comments [I get] to say, ‘she didn’t make this’. No explanation as to why they think that it is, just purely because [I’m] a woman, which is just mad.”
Image: Koven’s Katie Boyle says she has had some ‘awful incidences’
While Boyle loves performing live, there are moments, she admits, where being one of the few women on the scene can feel unsafe.
“I’ve had some awful incidences,” she says. “I had someone run on stage and completely grab me, hand down my top, down my trousers, while I was on the stage, which is crazy because you think that’s happening in front of an audience. I mean, this guy literally had to be plied off me.
“That was when I did think, ‘I need to bring someone with me to most places’. I didn’t feel safe travelling around by myself.”
‘You get trolled for everything’
Image: DJ Paulette. Pic: Paulette
Sadly, Boyle isn’t alone. Over a 30-year career, DJ Paulette has scaled the heights of dance music fame, playing throughout Europe, with a residency back in the day at Manchester’s Hacienda.
“Let’s just say I have two towels on my rider and it’s not just because I sweat a lot,” she jokes, miming a whack for those around her.
“I’ve spent time in DJ booths where I’ve had a skirt on and people have been taking pictures up my skirt. People think upskirting is a joke… and I got fed up with it.” Wearing shorts, she says, she still ended with “people with their hands all over me”. Now, she sticks to trousers. “But we shouldn’t have to alter the way we look for the environment that we work in.”
She admits, in order to stick it out, she’s had to bulletproof herself. “You get trolled for everything, for the way you look – if you put on weight, if you’ve lost weight.”
Not only is the discourse towards female DJs different online, she says, she has also been repeatedly told by those working in the industry that because she’s a woman, she has a sell-by date.
“I went for dinner with three guys… one of them said to me, ‘you know Paulette there is no promoter or organiser who is ever going to employ a black female DJ with grey hair’, and they all laughed.
“That was them saying to me that my career was over, and I was in my 40s. At the time, I felt crushed… I think it really does take women who have a real steel will to make their way through.”
‘I will not stop talking about it’
Image: DJ Jaguar at the International Music Summit in Ibiza. Pic: Ben Levi Suhling
As the great and the good of the dance world gather in Ibiza for the industry’s annual International Music Summit, with dance music more popular than ever there is of course much to party about.
But for BBC Radio 1 broadcaster and DJ Jaguar, one of this year’s summit’s cohosts, some serious conversations also need to be had.
“You can get off the plane and look at the billboards around Ibiza and it’s basically white men – David Guetta, Calvin Harris, and they are incredible artists in their own right – but the women headliners, there’s barely any visibility of them, it’s awful.”
She adds: “I will not stop talking about it because it is the reality.”
Trolling and safety are also big concerns. “You’re in these green rooms, there’s a lot of people there, drinking and doing other things… and I’ve walked into green rooms where I felt incredibly uncomfortable, especially when I was a bit younger. I was on my own, it’s like 2am, and you have to watch yourself.”
Male DJs don’t have the same stories
Image: The International Music Summit in Ibiza
She says she has female friends who have had drinks spiked when they were DJing. But her male friends? “They don’t have the same stories to tell me.”
Creamfields, arguably the UK’s biggest dance festival, is emblematic of the gender imbalance. It remains one of the least representative festivals in terms of female artists, with last year’s line-up more than 80% male.
Laila MacKenzie, founder of Lady Of The House, a community that supports and tries to encourage more women into dance music, says the talent pipeline problem isn’t helped by the current discourse online.
“There is a real damaging factor how people can be really nasty online and really nasty in the media and how that actually may discourage and demotivate women from stepping forward into their talent,” she says.
In reality, for so many women working within dance music, the trolling can be so unpleasant that it’s drowning out the good.
“There is so much positivity and so many lovely and supportive people,” says Boyle. “But unfortunately it feels like the negative and the toxic energy is just louder sometimes.”
On the banks of the Mersey, Runcorn and Helsby is a more complicated political picture than the apparent Labour heartland that first presents itself.
Yes, there are industrial and manufacturing areas – an old town that’s fallen victim to out-of-town shopping, and an out-of-town shopping centre that’s fallen victim to Amazon.
But there are also more middle-class new town developments, as well as Tory-facing rural swathes.
Image: Space Cafe director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded
One thing this area does mirror with many across the country, though, is a fed-up electorate with little confidence that politics can work for them.
In the Space Cafe in Runcorn Old Town, its director Marie Moss says many in the region remember a time when a sense of community was more acute.
“People were very proud of their town… and that’s why people get upset and emotional as they remember that,” she says.
It’s this feeling of disenfranchisement and nostalgia-tinged yearning for the past that Reform UK is trading off in its targeting of traditional Labour voters here.
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Party leader Nigel Farage features heavily on leaflets in these parts, alongside spikey messaging around migration, law and order, and Labour’s record in government so far.
Image: Runcorn 2024 result
Taxi driver Mike Holland hears frequent worries about that record from those riding in the back of his cab.
A Labour voter for decades, he says locals were “made up” at last year’s election result but have been “astonished” since then, with benefit changes a common topic of concern.
“Getting a taxi is two things, it’s either a luxury or a necessity… the necessity people are the disabled people… and a lot of the old dears are so stressed and worried about their disability allowance and whether they are going to get it or not get it,” he says.
But will that mean straight switchers to Reform UK?
Image: Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is now looking at the Lib Dems and Greens – or may not vote at all
Mike says he agrees with some of what the party is offering but thinks a lot of people are put off by Mr Farage.
He’s now looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, both of whom have put up local politicians as candidates.
Or, Mike says, he may just not vote at all.
It’s in places like Runcorn town that some of the political contradictions within Reform UK reveal themselves more clearly.
Many here say they were brought up being told to never vote Tory.
And yet, Reform, chasing their support, has chosen a former Conservative councillor as its candidate.
It’s no surprise Labour has been trialling attack lines in this campaign, painting Mr Farage’s party as “failed Tories”.
As a response to this, look no further than Reform’s recent nod to the left on industrialisation and public ownership.
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But head 15 minutes south from Runcorn docks, and this by-election campaign changes.
Rural areas like Frodsham and Helsby have, in the past, tended towards the Tories.
The Conservatives, of course, have a candidate in this vote, one who stood in a neighbouring constituency last year.
But Reform is now making a hard play for their supporters in these parts, with a softer message compared to the one being put out in urban areas – an attempt to reassure those anxious about too much political revolution coming to their privet-lined streets.
Labour, meanwhile, is actively trying to mobilise the anti-Farage vote by presenting their candidate – another local councillor – as the only person who can stop Reform.
Image: Makeup artist Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community
The pitch here is aimed at voters like Frodsham makeup artist Nadine Tan, who are worried about division and anger in the community.
“I think they need to kind of come together and stop trying to divide everyone,” she says.
But like Mike the taxi driver five miles north, disillusionment could be the eventual winner as Nadine says, despite the “thousands of leaflets” through her door, she still thinks “they all say the same thing”.
One factor that doesn’t seem to be swinging too many votes, though, is the insalubrious circumstances in which the area’s former Labour MP left office.
Image: Labour MP Mike Amesbury was convicted of punching a man in the street. Pic: Reuters
But across the patch, many praise their ex-MP’s local efforts, while also saying he was “very silly” to have acted in the way he did.
That may be putting it mildly.
But it’s hard to find much more agreement ahead of Thursday’s vote.
A constituency still hungry for change, but unsure as to who can deliver it.
Full list of candidates, Runcorn and Helsby by-election:
Catherine Anne Blaiklock – English Democrats Dan Clarke – Liberal Party Chris Copeman – Green Party Paul Duffy – Liberal Democrats Peter Ford – Workers Party Howling Laud Hope – Monster Raving Loony Party Sean Houlston – Conservatives Jason Philip Hughes – Volt UK Alan McKie – Independent Graham Harry Moore – English Constitution Party Paul Andrew Murphy – Social Democratic Party Sarah Pochin – Reform UK Karen Shore – Labour John Stevens – Rejoin EU Michael Williams – Independent
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Red-hot Journalism is the 3-1 morning line favorite for the 151st Kentucky Derby with a favorable No. 8 post position that has tied for the second-most victories in horse racing’s marquee event.
Sovereignty is the 5-1 second choice of 20 horses and will start from the No. 18 post outside Sandman, who drew the No. 17 spot on Saturday night and is the 6-1 third choice for the $5 million Grade 1 race at Churchill Downs.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s two entrants face longer odds in his return to Churchill Downs after a four-year suspension by the historic track after now-deceased colt Medina Spirit failed a postrace drug test after crossing the finish line first in 2021. Rodriguez is a 12-1 choice from the No. 4 post while Citizen Bull is a 20-1 longshot after drawing the No. 1 post.
“Well, we got the 1 [spot] out of the way,” joked Baffert, who seeks a record seventh Derby victory. “I’m glad I didn’t get the 2 with the other horse.”
Filly Good Cheer is the 6-5 favorite from the No. 11 post for the 151st Kentucky Oaks on May 2. La Cara drew the No. 7 post of 14 entrants with 6-1 odds for the $1.5 million showcase for 3-year-old fillies. Simply Joking (No. 2 post) and Ballerina d’Oro (No. 6) are co-third choices at 10-1 odds.
Journalism’s spot drew the most attention for horse racing’s marquee event on May 3 for 3-year-olds. He has been the presumptive favorite with a four-race winning streak. including both starts this year, along with a fourth in his debut last fall at Santa Anita.
“I’m very pleased,” trainer Michael McCarthy said. “What’s not to like?”
The No. 8 spot has yielded nine wins in 94 starts since the starting gate was first used in 1930, tied for second-most with the No. 10 post (88 starts). The No. 5 post has forged 10 victories in 95 starts.
The most recent Derby winner from the No. 8 post was Mage two years ago.
Those other two spots went to Todd Pletcher-trained Grande (20-1, No. 10), while D. Wayne Lukas’ American Promise is a 30-1 long shot from the No. 5. Japan-based Admire Daytona is also a 30-1 choice.
California-based Journalism is coming off a three-quarter-length victory over Baeza, an also-eligible Derby entrant, in the Grade 1 San Anita Derby on April 5. It was the bay colt’s third straight graded stakes win, earning him 122.5 points during the qualifying season, good for third.
Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, was second on the Derby trail with 129 points after winning the Arkansas Derby. Bill Mott-trained Sovereignty was seventh with 110 and enters with a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby to Tappan Street, whom Louisville-born trainer Brad Cox scratched Saturday morning with a leg injury.
That defection allowed Render Judgment into the field, giving trainer Kenny McPeek a chance to repeat as Derby winner after Mystik Dan’s victory last May, a day after filly Thorpedo Anna won the Oaks.