US interest rates increased despite worst banking turmoil since 2008

Published

2 years ago

March 22, 2023

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The Federal Reserve – the US central bank, known as the Fed – has increased interest rates for the ninth time in a row.

The rate has been increased by 0.25 percentage points in an effort to bring down inflation, which in the US stood at 6% over the 12 months to February.

A higher increase had been expected prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the rescue of regional US banks and the takeover of Credit Suisse.

At the start of this month, before the worst banking turmoil since 2008 began, Fed chair Jerome Powell had floated the idea of a 0.5 percentage points increase, a speeding up of rate increases. Last month the programme of rate hikes was slowed when the Fed instituted a 0.25 percentage points rise.

High interest rates lead to higher profits for lenders but also put pressure on banks as some government bonds, state IOUs, lose value.

Following Wednesday’s increase, US interest rates stand at 4.75% to 5%, up from 4.5% to 4.75% since the last increase in February.

In the US, the interest rate is a range, rather than a single percentage – as in the UK – because the Fed is not permitted to set a specific number.

A target rate is instead set as a guide for banks to follow.

Some economists had expected the Fed to pause rate rises all together.

Addressing banking concerns, the Fed said the US banking system is sound and resilient but the effects of recent developments is unknown.

“Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain.”

Tighter conditions are equivalent to an interest rate hike and perhaps may be more impactful, Mr Powell said.

“Such a tightening of financial conditions would work in the same direction as rate tightening in principle. As a matter of fact, you can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike, or perhaps more than that, of course, it’s not possible to make that assessment assessment today with any precision whatsoever.”

Eyes now on the Bank of England after surprise UK inflation figures

Ed Conway

Economics & data editor

@EdConwaySky

A lot of people were looking at what the Federal Reserve were going to do.

Of course they are they are the US central bank, the equivalent obviously of the Bank of England in the UK, and they are deciding not just monetary policy, so interest rates, quantitative easing all of that stuff, but they also monitor and regulate financial stability.

And that’s really important because of course, we all know what’s happened over the course of the last few weeks.

You’ve had big problems in US banks, you’ve had the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, Signature Bank, some other banks there as well, and a lot of concerns that the intervention from the Fed and its other authorities like the Treasury, and the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) hasn’t actually helped, it’s made people a little bit more nervous.

So put all of that together and there were some question marks about whether the Federal Reserve was going to raise interest rates as much as a lot of people had expected.

Let’s have a look at the actual rates and what they’ve done.

After financial crisis rates were already pretty low but they went even lower after COVID-19 but they have come up fast in the course of the last year or so, an extraordinary rise, nine increases.

And the question, of course, was whether this latest increase was going to be half a percentage point or a quarter of a percentage point and they’d gone for a quarter so up to 5%.

But this is interesting because a lot of people thought up until quite recently, they were going to go higher, they were going to go up towards well above 5%.

And the reason they haven’t is kind of interesting, because the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jay Powell and in the press conference that followed that decision emphasising the concern was that the financial system is struggling with the impact of these higher interest rates.

And that is basically raising some questions about whether the Fed is going to raise interest rates quite as much as people recently thought.

That’s relevant for the UK because the Bank of England is set to decide on its interest rate, those rates are at a 4% at the moment, a lot of people thought they were going to be maybe paused because of this concern about what’s going on with the financial system.

But then along came those high inflation numbers that we’ve just got, up to 10.4%, higher than expected.

Of course, the bank’s job is to try and target inflation.

So now people think they’re going to raise interest rates in the UK, maybe by a quarter percentage point.

We’ll have to wait and see what they do, we’ll have to wait and see what governor Andrew Bailey has to say about that.

But it is now a tense moment because with these rates quite so high, a lot of people worry that the financial system is starting to squeak a bit.

A rate rethink

Speaking on Wednesday Mr Powell said ongoing interest rate increases are no longer appropriate to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Instead, he said “some” additional raises “may be appropriate”.

Addressing the banking turmoil, he said: “we are committed to learning the lessons from this episode, and to work to prevent episodes from events like this from happening again.”

It was also the first time since December that the Fed issued interest rate projections.

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GDP, a measure of economic output and of economic health, will be just 0.4% this year, Mr Powell said, and is forecast to increase to 1.2% next year, well below the growth rate many politicians would hope for.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the end of this year and 4.6% at the end of next year.

US

Donald Trump announces sweeping global trade tariffs – including 10% on UK imports

Published

5 hours ago

April 3, 2025

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Donald Trump announces sweeping global trade tariffs - including 10% on UK imports

Donald Trump has announced a 10% trade tariff on all imports from the UK – as he unleashed sweeping tariffs across the globe.

Speaking at a White House event entitled “Make America Wealthy Again”, the president held up a chart detailing the worst offenders – which also showed the new tariffs the US would be imposing.

“This is Liberation Day,” he told a cheering audience of supporters, while hitting out at foreign “cheaters”.

Follow live: Trump tariffs latest

He claimed “trillions” of dollars from the “reciprocal” levies he was imposing on others’ trade barriers would provide relief for the US taxpayer and restore US jobs and factories.

Mr Trump said the US has been “looted, pillaged, raped, plundered” by other nations.

His first tariff announcement was a 25% duty on all car imports from midnight – 5am on Thursday, UK time.

Mr Trump confirmed the European Union would face a 20% reciprocal tariff on all other imports. China’s rate was set at 34%.

The UK’s rate of 10% was perhaps a shot across the bows over the country’s 20% VAT rate, though the president’s board suggested a 10% tariff imbalance between the two nations.

It was also confirmed that further US tariffs were planned on some individual sectors including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical mineral imports.

The ramping up of duties promises to be painful for the global economy. Tariffs on steel and aluminium are already in effect.

The UK government signalled there would be no immediate retaliation.

Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: “We will always act in the best interests of UK businesses and consumers. That’s why, throughout the last few weeks, the government has been fully focused on negotiating an economic deal with the United States that strengthens our existing fair and balanced trading relationship.

“The US is our closest ally, so our approach is to remain calm and committed to doing this deal, which we hope will mitigate the impact of what has been announced today.

“We have a range of tools at our disposal and we will not hesitate to act. We will continue to engage with UK businesses including on their assessment of the impact of any further steps we take.

“Nobody wants a trade war and our intention remains to secure a deal. But nothing is off the table and the government will do everything necessary to defend the UK’s national interest.”

The EU has pledged to retaliate, which is a problem for Northern Ireland.

Should that scenario play out, the region faces the prospect of rising prices because all its imports are tied to EU rules under post-Brexit trading arrangements.

It means US goods shipped to Northern Ireland would be subject to the EU’s reprisals.

The impact of a trade war would be expected to be widely negative, with tit-for-tat tariffs risking job losses, a ramping up of prices and cooling of global trade.

Research for the Institute for Public Policy Research has suggested more than 25,000 direct jobs in the UK car manufacturing industry alone could be at risk from the tariffs on car exports to the US.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) had said the tariff costs could not be absorbed by manufacturers and may lead to a review of output.

The tariffs now on UK exports pose a big risk to growth and the so-called headroom Chancellor Rachel Reeves was forced to restore to the public finances at the spring statement, risking further spending cuts or tax rises ahead to meet her fiscal rules.

A member of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), David Miles, told MPs on Tuesday that US tariffs at 20% or 25% maintained on the UK for five years would “knock out all the headroom the government currently has”.

But he added that a “very limited tariff war” that the UK stays out of could be “mildly positive”.

He said: “There’s a bit of trade that will get diverted to the UK, and some of the exports from China, for example, that would have gone to the US, they’ll be looking for a home for them in the rest of the world.

“And stuff would be available in the UK a bit cheaper than otherwise would have been. So there is one, not central scenario at all, which is very, very mildly potentially positive to the UK. All the other ones which involve the UK facing tariffs are negative, and they’re negative to very different extents.”

US

‘A genius actor’, ‘firecracker’, and ‘my friend’: Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

Published

5 hours ago

April 3, 2025

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'A genius actor', 'firecracker', and 'my friend': Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

Actors, directors and celebrity friends have paid tribute to Val Kilmer, after he died aged 65.

The California-born star of Top Gun, Batman and Heat died of pneumonia on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, his daughter Mercedes told the Associated Press.

She said Kilmer was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2014 but later recovered.

Tributes flooded in after reports broke of the actor’s death, with No Country For Old Men star Josh Brolin among the first to share their memories.

He wrote on Instagram: “See ya, pal. I’m going to miss you. You were a smart, challenging, brave, uber-creative firecracker. There’s not a lot left of those.

“I hope to see you up there in the heavens when I eventually get there. Until then, amazing memories, lovely thoughts.”

Kyle Maclachlan, who co-starred with Kilmer in the 1991 biopic The Doors, wrote on social media: “You’ll always be my Jim. See you on the other side my friend.”

Michael Mann, who directed Kilmer in 1995’s Heat, also paid tribute in a statement, saying: “I always marvelled at the range, the brilliant variability within the powerful current of Val’s possessing and expressing character.

“After so many years of Val battling disease and maintaining his spirit, this is tremendously sad news.”

Heat co-star Danny Trejo also called Kilmer “a great actor, a wonderful person, and a dear friend of mine” on Instagram.

Cher, who once dated the actor, said on X that “U Were Funny, crazy, pain in the ass, GREAT FRIEND… BRILLIANT as Mark Twain, BRAVE here during ur sickness”.

Lifelong friend and director of Twixt, Francis Ford Coppola said: “Val Kilmer was the most talented actor when in his High School, and that talent only grew greater throughout his life.

“He was a wonderful person to work with and a joy to know – I will always remember him.”

The Top Gun account on X also said it was remembering Kilmer, who starred as Iceman in both the 1986 original and 2022 sequel, and “whose indelible cinematic mark spanned genres and generations”.

Nicolas Cage added that “I always liked Val and am sad to hear of his passing”.

“I thought he was a genius actor,” he said. “I enjoyed working with him on Bad Lieutenant and I admired his commitment and sense of humor.

“He should have won the Oscar for The Doors.”

US

‘No justification for this’: World reacts to Trump’s tariff announcement

Published

7 hours ago

April 2, 2025

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'No justification for this': World reacts to Trump's tariff announcement

World leaders have begun reacting after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs across the world.

Mr Tump announced a 10% trade tariff on all imports from the UK.

He said he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US and higher duties on some of the country’s biggest trading partners.

Speaking at a White House event entitled ‘Make America Wealthy Again’, the president held up a chart detailing the worst offenders, hitting at foreign “cheaters”.

These are some of the world leaders’ reactions.

Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin has said there is “no justification” for US tariffs.

“I deeply regret the US decision to impose 20% tariffs on imports from across the European Union,” the taoiseach added.

“We see no justification for this. More than €4.2bn worth of goods and services are traded between the EU and the US daily.

“Disrupting this deeply integrated relationship benefits no one. Tariffs drive inflation, hurt people on both sides of the Atlantic, and put jobs at risk.”

Manfred Weber, the president of the largest party in the European Parliament, the EPP, said: “To our American friends, today isn’t liberation day – it’s resentment day. Donald Trump’s tariffs don’t defend fair trade; they attack it out of fear and hurt both sides of the Atlantic.

“Europe stands united, ready to defend its interests, and open to fair, firm talks.”

What to expect from the EU

There will be a response from the European Union – the question is how soon, and how tough.

A symbolic reprisal is one choice – putting tariffs on classic American products such as Harley-Davidson motorbikes or bottles of bourbon.

That won’t damage the European economy, but it won’t make much of a difference, either.

There’s a reluctance to slap wide-ranging, indiscriminate tariffs simply because that would increase costs for many European manufacturers.

So something more targeted may look appealing and that could mean going after the tech giants – Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon, for example.

Companies who have already had rows with EU regulators and are seen as being, to varying extents, close to the White House.

If Europe could specifically target Tesla, it probably would.

There are also those suggesting the EU should hold fire for the moment, confident that Trump’s tariffs will backfire and keen that the effects are visible.

One fear is that some of the cheap goods that were destined for US markets will now be diverted to Europe, flooding its market.

Another fear is how the Windsor Framework will be affected, now that there are different US tariffs on either side of the Irish border.

And finally there is that insult from the President, who called the European Union “pathetic”. A few minutes later, a senior EU diplomat sent me a message saying “the US is Brexiting the world, but you can’t stop the march of folly”.

Transatlantic relations are getting even icier.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his country would fight tariffs with countermeasures.

“It’s essential to act with purpose and with force, and that’s what we will do,” he told reporters ahead of a cabinet meeting to discuss Canada’s response.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said: “It is the American people who will pay the biggest price for these unjustified tariffs.

“This is why our government will not be seeking to impose reciprocal tariffs. We will not join a race to the bottom that leads to higher prices and slower growth.”

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, seen as close ally of the US president, called the tariffs “wrong” and said they would not benefit the United States.

“We will do everything we can to work towards an agreement with the United States, with the goal of avoiding a trade war that would inevitably weaken the West in favour of other global players,” she said.

The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez vowed to protect the country’s companies and workers and to “continue to be committed to an open world.”

His Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, said: “We don’t want growing trade barriers.

“We don’t want a trade war.

“We want to find our way back to a path of trade and cooperation together with the US, so that people in our countries can enjoy a better life.”