US interest rates increased despite worst banking turmoil since 2008
The Federal Reserve – the US central bank, known as the Fed – has increased interest rates for the ninth time in a row.
The rate has been increased by 0.25 percentage points in an effort to bring down inflation, which in the US stood at 6% over the 12 months to February.
A higher increase had been expected prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the rescue of regional US banks and the takeover of Credit Suisse.
At the start of this month, before the worst banking turmoil since 2008 began, Fed chair Jerome Powell had floated the idea of a 0.5 percentage points increase, a speeding up of rate increases. Last month the programme of rate hikes was slowed when the Fed instituted a 0.25 percentage points rise.
High interest rates lead to higher profits for lenders but also put pressure on banks as some government bonds, state IOUs, lose value.
Following Wednesday’s increase, US interest rates stand at 4.75% to 5%, up from 4.5% to 4.75% since the last increase in February.
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In the US, the interest rate is a range, rather than a single percentage – as in the UK – because the Fed is not permitted to set a specific number.
A target rate is instead set as a guide for banks to follow.
Some economists had expected the Fed to pause rate rises all together.
Addressing banking concerns, the Fed said the US banking system is sound and resilient but the effects of recent developments is unknown.
“Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain.”
Tighter conditions are equivalent to an interest rate hike and perhaps may be more impactful, Mr Powell said.
“Such a tightening of financial conditions would work in the same direction as rate tightening in principle. As a matter of fact, you can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike, or perhaps more than that, of course, it’s not possible to make that assessment assessment today with any precision whatsoever.”
Read more:
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Inflation rise surprised even the Bank of England – and now interest rate hike looks near-certain
Eyes now on the Bank of England after surprise UK inflation figures
A lot of people were looking at what the Federal Reserve were going to do.
Of course they are they are the US central bank, the equivalent obviously of the Bank of England in the UK, and they are deciding not just monetary policy, so interest rates, quantitative easing all of that stuff, but they also monitor and regulate financial stability.
And that’s really important because of course, we all know what’s happened over the course of the last few weeks.
You’ve had big problems in US banks, you’ve had the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, Signature Bank, some other banks there as well, and a lot of concerns that the intervention from the Fed and its other authorities like the Treasury, and the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) hasn’t actually helped, it’s made people a little bit more nervous.
So put all of that together and there were some question marks about whether the Federal Reserve was going to raise interest rates as much as a lot of people had expected.
Let’s have a look at the actual rates and what they’ve done.
After financial crisis rates were already pretty low but they went even lower after COVID-19 but they have come up fast in the course of the last year or so, an extraordinary rise, nine increases.
And the question, of course, was whether this latest increase was going to be half a percentage point or a quarter of a percentage point and they’d gone for a quarter so up to 5%.
But this is interesting because a lot of people thought up until quite recently, they were going to go higher, they were going to go up towards well above 5%.
And the reason they haven’t is kind of interesting, because the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jay Powell and in the press conference that followed that decision emphasising the concern was that the financial system is struggling with the impact of these higher interest rates.
And that is basically raising some questions about whether the Fed is going to raise interest rates quite as much as people recently thought.
That’s relevant for the UK because the Bank of England is set to decide on its interest rate, those rates are at a 4% at the moment, a lot of people thought they were going to be maybe paused because of this concern about what’s going on with the financial system.
But then along came those high inflation numbers that we’ve just got, up to 10.4%, higher than expected.
Of course, the bank’s job is to try and target inflation.
So now people think they’re going to raise interest rates in the UK, maybe by a quarter percentage point.
We’ll have to wait and see what they do, we’ll have to wait and see what governor Andrew Bailey has to say about that.
But it is now a tense moment because with these rates quite so high, a lot of people worry that the financial system is starting to squeak a bit.
A rate rethink
Speaking on Wednesday Mr Powell said ongoing interest rate increases are no longer appropriate to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Instead, he said “some” additional raises “may be appropriate”.
Addressing the banking turmoil, he said: “we are committed to learning the lessons from this episode, and to work to prevent episodes from events like this from happening again.”
It was also the first time since December that the Fed issued interest rate projections.
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GDP, a measure of economic output and of economic health, will be just 0.4% this year, Mr Powell said, and is forecast to increase to 1.2% next year, well below the growth rate many politicians would hope for.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the end of this year and 4.6% at the end of next year.
For decades, trade and trade policy has been an economic and political backwater – decidedly boring, seemingly uncontroversial.Â
Trade was mostly free and getting freer, tariffs were getting lower and lower, and the world was becoming more, not less, globalised.
But alongside those long-term trends, there were some serious consequences.
Trump latest: US president announces sweeping global trade tariffs
Mature, developed economies like the UK and US became ever more reliant on cheap imports from China and, in the process, saw their manufacturing sectors shrink.
Large swathes of the rust belt in the US – and much of the Midlands and North of England – were hollowed out.
And to some extent that’s where the story of Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” really began – with the notion that free trade and globalisation had a darker side, a side he wants to remedy via tariffs.
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He imposed a set of tariffs in his first term, some on China, some on specific materials like steel and aluminium. But the height and the breadth of those tariffs were as nothing compared with the ones we have just heard about.
Not since the 1930s has the US so radically increased the level of tariffs on all nations across the world. Back then, those tariffs exacerbated the Great Depression.
It’s anyone’s guess as to what the consequences of these ones will be. But there will be consequences.
Consequences for the nature of globalisation, consequences for the US economy (tariffs are exceptionally inflationary), consequences for geopolitics.
Imports from the UK will face a 10% tariff, while EU goods will see 20% rates. Pic: Reuters
And to some extent, merely knowing that little bit more about the White House’s plans will deliver a bit of relief to financial markets, which have fretted for months about the imposition of tariffs. That uncertainty recently reached unprecedented levels.
But don’t for a moment assume that this saga is over. Nothing of the sort. In the coming days, we will learn more – more about the nuts and bolts of these policies, more about the retaliatory measures coming from other countries.
We will, possibly, get more of a sense about whether some countries – including the UK – will enjoy reprieves from the tariffs.
To paraphrase Churchill, this isn’t the end of the trade war, or even the beginning of the end – perhaps just the end of the beginning.
Actors, directors and celebrity friends have paid tribute to Val Kilmer, after he died aged 65.
The California-born star of Top Gun, Batman and Heat died of pneumonia on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, his daughter Mercedes told the Associated Press.
She said Kilmer was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2014 but later recovered.
Tributes flooded in after reports broke of the actor’s death, with No Country For Old Men star Josh Brolin among the first to share their memories.
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Watch: Val Kilmer in his most iconic roles
He wrote on Instagram: “See ya, pal. I’m going to miss you. You were a smart, challenging, brave, uber-creative firecracker. There’s not a lot left of those.
“I hope to see you up there in the heavens when I eventually get there. Until then, amazing memories, lovely thoughts.”
Kyle Maclachlan, who co-starred with Kilmer in the 1991 biopic The Doors, wrote on social media: “You’ll always be my Jim. See you on the other side my friend.”
Michael Mann, who directed Kilmer in 1995’s Heat, also paid tribute in a statement, saying: “I always marvelled at the range, the brilliant variability within the powerful current of Val’s possessing and expressing character.
“After so many years of Val battling disease and maintaining his spirit, this is tremendously sad news.”
Heat co-star Danny Trejo also called Kilmer “a great actor, a wonderful person, and a dear friend of mine” on Instagram.
Cher, who once dated the actor, said on X that “U Were Funny, crazy, pain in the ass, GREAT FRIEND… BRILLIANT as Mark Twain, BRAVE here during ur sickness”.
Lifelong friend and director of Twixt, Francis Ford Coppola said: “Val Kilmer was the most talented actor when in his High School, and that talent only grew greater throughout his life.
“He was a wonderful person to work with and a joy to know – I will always remember him.”
The Top Gun account on X also said it was remembering Kilmer, who starred as Iceman in both the 1986 original and 2022 sequel, and “whose indelible cinematic mark spanned genres and generations”.
Nicolas Cage added that “I always liked Val and am sad to hear of his passing”.
“I thought he was a genius actor,” he said. “I enjoyed working with him on Bad Lieutenant and I admired his commitment and sense of humor.
“He should have won the Oscar for The Doors.”
Elon Musk has called reports that he will leave his government role in the coming months “fake news”.
A senior White House official previously told NBC News, Sky’s US partner network, that Donald Trump had discussed the Tesla and X boss transitioning back to the private sector at a cabinet meeting last month.
The Tesla boss has headed DOGE since 20 January. File pic: Reuters
After reports emerged of the meeting, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said it was “garbage” and added: “Elon Musk and President Trump have both publicly stated that Elon will depart from public service as a special government employee when his incredible work at DOGE is complete.”
Mr Musk added in response on X: “Yeah, fake news.”
NBC News reported that the official said Mr Musk would leave at the end of his 130 days as a special government employee.
That would be 30 May, but it is unclear if the billionaire businessman will indeed leave on that date.
Previously, the White House said that as a temporary organisation, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would be terminated on 4 July next year – the 250th anniversary of the US.
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It comes days after Mr Musk said some members of his DOGE team were getting death threats on a daily basis.
Mr Musk had drawn criticism over his efforts to downsize the US federal government.
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In just weeks, entire agencies were dismantled, and tens of thousands of workers from the 2.3 million federal workforce have been fired or have agreed to leave their jobs.
A number of lawsuits were filed in state and federal courts over cuts recommended by DOGE.
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