The Bank of England has revealed it no longer believes the UK will face a technical recession this year, as it raised the interest rate by a further quarter percentage point.
The unexpected change to its forecast was contained in the minutes alongside its decision to raise borrowing costs for an eleventh successive time to 4.25%.
The monetary policy committee’s decision follows hard on the heels of data showing that far from falling in February, UK inflation rose to 10.4%.
It also follows financial turmoil as a series of US banks and then Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse ran into trouble.
Some had speculated that in the face of the financial instability the Bank might pause its increases in borrowing costs – the fastest ramp-up since it was granted independence to set monetary policy in 1997.
However, the decision was relatively clear-cut, with seven of the nine members voting for the 25 basis point increase.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that while the prospects of a recession had been on a “knife-edge” back in February, he feels “a bit more optimistic now” and expects inflation to fall sharply in the summer.
He said: “We’ve seen signs of inflation really peaking now. But of course it’s far too high…. We need to see it starting to come down progressively and get back to target.”
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The minutes revealed that the Bank is now considerably more optimistic about the economy, expecting national income to grow slightly in the second quarter of the year rather than shrinking by 0.4% – as it anticipated a month ago.
The change would mean that the UK would no longer face a technical recession, defined as two successive quarters of economic contraction.
The upgrade is partly down to lower energy costs and partly due to the giveaways in the budget earlier this month.
Policymakers also gave a vote of confidence to the UK banking system amid the recent turmoil for shares.
The minutes said that the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee “judged that the UK banking system maintained robust capital and strong liquidity positions, and was well placed to continue supporting the economy in a wide range of economic scenarios, including in a period of higher interest rates. The FPC’s assessment was that the UK banking system remained resilient”.
Explaining why seven of the committee had voted for higher rates, it said: “Headline CPI inflation had surprised significantly on the upside and the near-term path of GDP was likely to be somewhat stronger than expected previously.”
Two members – Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro – considered that “the current setting of Bank Rate would be likely to reduce inflation to well below target in the medium term.”
The Bank is still expected by markets to raise rates another time later this year, but the minutes left its key guidance unchanged: “If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”
A renewable energy group founded by the former chief executive of Petrofac, the oilfield services group which collapsed during the autumn, will this week announce a £40m fundraising despite signs of growing tension over its leadership.
Sky News has learnt that Venterra, which was set up four years ago by Ayman Asfari, will unveil the capital injection as early as Monday.
Its backers will include existing shareholders Beyond Net Zero, a fund affiliated with the private equity firm General Atlantic, and First Reserve, another private equity investor.
The fundraising will come amid a challenging climate sweeping through swathes of the renewable energy sector.
While offshore wind remains an important element of the global energy transition, the shifting investment priorities, in part precipitated by Donald Trump’s second term as US president, have resulted in slower growth than anticipated for companies such as Venterra.
One source said there had been growing tensions in recent months over Mr Asfari’s role at the company and its prospects for 2026.
Venterra has already raised a total of £250m in equity since it was formed.
The Christmas period is upon us, and goods are flying off the shelves, but for some reason, the tills are not ringing as loudly as they should be.
Across the country, the five-finger discount is being used with such frequency that retailers are taking action into their own hands.
With concerns about the police response to shoplifting, many are now resorting to controversial facial recognition technology to catch culprits before they strike.
Sainsbury’s, Asda, Budgens and Sports Direct are among the high-street businesses that have signed up to Facewatch, a cloud-based facial recognition security system that scans faces as they enter a store. Those images are then compared to a database of known offenders and, if a match is found, an alert is set off to warn the business that a shoplifter has entered the premises.
It comes as official figures show shoplifting offences rose by 13% in the year to June, reaching almost 530,000 incidents. Figures reported in August showed more than 80% result in no charge.
At the same time, retailers are reporting more than 2,000 cases of violence or abuse against their staff every day. Faced with mounting losses and safety concerns, businesses say they are being forced to take security into their own hands because stretched police forces are only able to respond to a fraction of incidents.
Image: A Facewatch camera
At Ruxley Manor Garden Centre in south London, managing director James Evans said theft had become increasingly brazen and organised, with losses from shoplifting now accounting for around 1.5% of turnover. “That may sound small, but it represents a significant hit to the bottom line,” he said, pointing out that thousands of pounds’ worth of goods can be stolen in a single visit.
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“We have had instances where the children get sent in to do it. They know that the parents will be waiting in the car park and they’ll know that there’s nothing that we can do to stop them.”
Image: Gurpreet Narwan is seen at the garden centre while being shown how Facewatch works
Staff members here have also had their fair share of run-ins with shoplifters. In one case, employees trying to stop a suspected shoplifter were nearly struck by an accomplice in a car. “This is no longer just about stock loss,” said James, “It is about the safety of our staff.”
However, the technology is not without its critics. Civil liberties groups have warned that the expansion of this type of technology is eroding our privacy.
Silkie Carlo, director of Big Brother Watch, called it “a very dangerous kind of privatised policing industry”.
Image: Facewatch is seen in operation as retailers look to crack down on crime.
“[It] really threatens fairness and justice for us all, because now it’s the case that just going to do your supermarket shopping, a company is quietly taking your very sensitive biometric data. That’s data that’s as sensitive as your passport, and [it’s] making a judgement about whether you’re a criminal or not.”
Silkie said the organisation was routinely receiving messages from people who said they had been mistakenly targeted. They include Rennea Nelson, who was wrongly flagged as a shoplifter at a B&M store after being mistakenly added to the facial recognition database. Nelson said she was threatened with police action and warned that her immigration status could be at risk.
Image: Gurpreet’s profile can be seen on the Facewatch database
“He said to me, if you don’t get out, I’m going to call the police. So at that point I turned around and I was like, are you speaking to me? Then he was like yes, yes, your face set off the alarm because you’re a thief… At that point, I was around six to seven months pregnant and I was having a high-risk pregnancy. I was already going through a lot of anxiety and, so him coming over and shouting at me, it was like really triggering me.”
The retailer later acknowledged the error and apologised, describing it as a rare case of human mistake.
A spokesperson for B&M said: ‘This was a simple case of human error, and we sincerely apologise to Ms Nelson for any upset caused. Reported incidents like this are rare. Facewatch services are designed to operate strictly in compliance with UK GDPR and to help protect store colleagues from incidents of aggressive shoplifting.”
Image: The cloud-based technology has critics who argue that it amounts to a misuse of personal data and privacy
Nick Fisher, chief executive of Facewatch, said the backlash was disproportionate.
“Well, I think it’s designed to be quite alarmist, using language like ‘dystopian’, ‘orwellian’, ‘turning people into barcodes’,” he said.
“The inference of that is that we will identify people using biometric technology, hold and store their own, store their data. And that’s just, quite frankly, misleading. We only store and retain data of known repeat offenders, of which it’s been deemed to be proportionate and responsible to do so… I think in the world that we are currently operating in, as long as the technology is used and managed in a responsible, proportionate way, I can only see it being a force for good.”
Rogue retailers exposed in shoplifting crackdown
Yet, there is obviously widespread unease, if not anger, at the proliferation of this technology. Businesses are obviously alert to it, but the bottom line is calling.
The owner of the fashion brand LK Bennett is this weekend racing to find a saviour amid concerns that it could be heading for collapse for the second time in six years.
Sky News has learnt that the clothing chain, which was founded by Linda Bennett in 1990, is working with advisers at Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) on an accelerated sale process.
Industry sources said on Saturday that A&M had begun sounding out potential buyers and investors in the last few days.
At one stage, LK Bennett was among the most recognisable brands on the high street, expanding to 200 branded outlets in the UK and overseas markets including China, Russia and the US.
In its home market it now trades from just nine standalone stores, with a further 13 listed as concessions on its website.
It was unclear whether a sale of the loss-making brand was likely or whether LK Bennett’s existing backers might be prepared to inject more funding into the business.
Contingency plans for an insolvency are frequently drawn up by advisers drafted in to run accelerated sale processes.
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The brand is owned by Byland UK, a company established in 2019 for the purpose of rescuing LK Bennett from a previous brush with insolvency.
Byland UK was formed by Rebecca Feng, who ran LK Bennett’s Chinese franchises.
At the time of that deal, Ms Feng said: “Under our plan, the business will continue to operate out of the UK, looking to maintain the long-standing and undoubted heritage of the brand.
“This will be achieved through a combination of working with quality British design, and the business’s existing supply chain.”
Accounts for LK Bennett Fashion for the period ended January 27, 2024 show the company made a post-tax loss of £3.5m on turnover of £42.1m.
The figures showed a steep loss in sales from £48.8m in 2023.
According to the accounts, LK Bennett paid a dividend of £229,000 “at the start of the year when performance was doing well”.
“Given the decline in revenue, the directors do not recommend the payment of any further dividends.”
Ms Bennett founded the eponymous chain by opening a store in Wimbledon, southwest London, in 1990, and promised to “bring a bit of Bond Street to the high street”.
Her eye for design earned her the nickname ‘queen of the kitten heel’ and saw her products worn by the Princess of Wales and Theresa May, the former prime minister.
In 2008, Ms Bennett sold the business for an estimated £100m to a consortium led by the private equity firm Phoenix Equity Partners.
She retained a stake, and then bought back the remaining equity in 2017.
The company’s administration in 2019 resulted in the closure of 15 stores.
It was unclear how many people are now employed by LK Bennett.
LK Bennett has been contacted for comment, while A&M declined to comment.