UK
Detective who helped catch ‘sadistic’ serial killer Peter Tobin believes there are more victims out there
What started as a missing person case led to the capture of an “evil” serial killer who “got sadistic sexual pleasure” from murdering women.
Peter Tobin died in October 2022 at the age of 76 while serving three life sentences for the murders of Angelika Kluk, Vicky Hamilton and Dinah McNicol.
Former detective superintendent David Swindle helped to unmask the murderer and has always believed there are more victims out there.
Peter Tobin. Pic: PA
Mr Swindle told Sky News: “Peter Tobin was evil. And, you know, there’s a lot of speculation – nature, nurture or born evil. He’s evil. This is someone that got sadistic sexual pleasure from killing people.
“And when we look back at his life, we see that he cut the head off a dog. He tortured animals – a trait that featured with Ian Brady killing a cat.
“This kind of stuff – he was progressing, he had all the traits early on. And then we traced various partners that he had, and they describe horrific, violent domestic abuse.
“This is someone progressing towards it. And Tobin is evil. He’s killed other people, but we don’t know how many else he’s killed.
“And the reason we don’t know it, is because he targeted vulnerable people and he was forensically aware. So, there could be others, there will be other cases.”
Former detective superintendent David Swindle
Tobin’s secret reign of terror was unveiled following the disappearance of Polish student Angelika Kluk in September 2006.
The 23-year-old had been enjoying her second summer at St Patrick’s Church in Glasgow, where she was living and working as a cleaner to help finance her Scandinavian studies course at the University of Gdansk.
She was reported missing after failing to turn up to work and was last seen alive in the company of the church’s handyman, “Patrick McLaughlin”.
Angelika Kluk. Pic: PA
The caretaker initially spoke to police before sparking suspicion by disappearing himself.
Following a public appeal, the force discovered “McLaughlin” was instead registered sex offender Tobin.
In 1993, Tobin attacked two 14-year-old girls while living in Havant, Hampshire.
He attempted to evade justice for the horrific sex assaults but was jailed the following year and spent a decade behind bars before returning to his home county of Renfrewshire in 2004.
In 2005, he fled Paisley after being accused of attacking a woman and managed to avoid detection until Angelika’s case.
St Patrick’s Church in Glasgow. Pic: PA
Mr Swindle said he can still remember the day he was brought onto the case after Tobin’s true identity was discovered.
Angelika instantly became a high-risk missing person as she was last seen in the company of a registered sex offender.
Officers were sent back to search the church, where Angelika’s body was thereafter discovered under the floorboards.
A picture of a hatch at St Patrick’s Church, which led to the underfloor passage where Angelika’s body was hidden. Pic: PA
Forensic scientist Carol Rogers ordered for the body not to be moved and crawled under the floorboards to collect vital DNA evidence from the bloody crime scene.
Angelika suffered a violent death in the sexually motivated murder. A post-mortem examination revealed she had been bound and gagged, raped, beaten with a piece of wood, and stabbed 16 times in the chest.
The underfloor passage where Angelika’s body was found. Pic: PA
Mr Swindle said the “ferocity” of what had happened to Angelika was “absolutely horrendous”.
He said: “I’ve worked on hundreds of murder investigations in my long time in the police, mostly in the CID. This was horrendous, absolutely horrendous, and it was organised.
“The way he had put poor Angelika under the floor and concealed her remains and stayed at the scene – this is someone that’s cool, calculating, someone that knew what he was about.”
A manhunt was launched for Tobin, who had absconded to London.
He was eventually captured after admitting himself to a hospital under the name “James Kelly”. His deception was foiled after a staff member recognised Tobin from the media coverage.
Tobin was initially brought back to Scotland for failing to comply with his sex offender requirements.
Mr Swindle said: “So, you’ve got the person, you’ve got the individual, but you need to work round it all.
“Meanwhile, it’s very fast moving. There was huge media interest, rightly so, and you’re always thinking, ‘okay, it’s him, we’ve got to prove this’.
“And you have to prove it beyond reasonable doubt, and that was the issue. And then later on that week, we got the DNA. It was Tobin’s DNA. That is a significant development.”
Tobin denied any wrongdoing and went to trial despite the DNA evidence stacked against him.
Dorothy Bain KC, Scotland’s now lord advocate, was the prosecutor in the case.
Jurors heard how semen recovered from Angelika’s body linked back to Tobin, as did fingerprints on tarpaulin left at the scene of the crime. The victim’s blood was also found on a wooden table leg and on Tobin’s watch.
The defence, led by Donald Findlay KC, claimed any sex was consensual.
Suspicions were instead cast on to the parish priest at the time, who claimed he’d had a sexual relationship with Angelika, as well as a married man the victim was having an affair with.
Aneta and Wladyslaw Kluk, Angelika’s sister and father, at the High Court in Edinburgh in 2007. Pic: PA
Mr Swindle said: “What happened very early on with the murder of Angelika Kluk was what you see so many times in cases – victim blaming and victim shaming.”
Jurors saw through Tobin’s lies and found him guilty.
Judge Lord Menzies described the rapist and murderer as an “evil man” as he handed down a life sentence with at least 21 years behind bars in May 2007.
The killer kicked a press photographer to the ground as he was led from the High Court in Edinburgh.
Tobin at the High Court in Edinburgh in May 2007. Pic: PA
Following Tobin’s conviction, what was then Strathclyde Police launched Operation Anagram to investigate his life.
Mr Swindle said: “As soon as I saw what Peter Tobin had done to poor Angelika – how organised he was, how methodical he was, the fact that he was using a false name, the fact that he gave a statement to the police in a false name before the heat was on him.
“He was 60 years of age. He’s done this before.”
Mr Swindle said “fortunately” there aren’t many serial killers in the UK.
He added: “Serial killers – they’re cunning, they’re controlling, they’re conniving, they can be charming, and that’s what we actually found out about Tobin, and they can be clever.”
Mr Swindle likened Tobin’s traits to that of Moors murderer Ian Brady and fellow Scot Dennis Nilsen, who admitted murdering at least 15 young men between 1978 and 1983.
Mr Swindle said: “And that’s when I thought we have to look at his whole life.”
As officers mapped the thrice-married Tobin’s movements over the years, it was discovered he was living in Bathgate at the time of Vicky Hamilton’s disappearance in February 1991.
Vicky Hamilton. Pic: PA
Vicky was just 15 when she went missing from a bus stop in the West Lothian town.
The teenager had been staying with her older sister in Livingston and vanished during a cold weather snap while making her way home to Redding, near Falkirk.
She was last seen alive eating from a bag of chips while waiting for her connecting bus.
The case was one of Scotland’s most high-profile missing person enquiries.
Sadly, Vicky’s heartbroken mother, Janette, died in 1993 without knowing what happened to her daughter.
Police searching Tobin’s former home in Bathgate in June 2007. Pic: PA
Furniture was removed from the property. Pic: PA
In June 2007, police searched Tobin’s old Bathgate home and recovered a dagger hidden in the loft space. A piece of Vicky’s skin was recovered from the weapon.
Vicky’s purse, which had been discarded in Edinburgh following her disappearance in an attempt to fool police she had run away, was submitted for testing and found to contain traces of saliva linking back to Tobin’s then young son.
It is believed the toddler may have put the purse in his mouth while playing with it.
Police conducting a search in June 2007 near to Tobin’s former Bathgate home. Pic: PA
There was no sign of Vicky, but the mystery would soon unravel nearly 500 miles away.
In October 2007, a search was conducted at Tobin’s old home in Margate, Kent, where he had moved to a few months after Vicky went missing.
Aerial view of Tobin’s old home in Margate, third from left. Pic: PA
A major search was conducted at Tobin’s former Margate home. Pic: PA
Officers believed he may have been involved in the disappearance of 18-year-old Dinah McNicol.
The Essex teenager vanished in August 1991 after accepting a ride while hitchhiking home from a music festival in Hampshire.
Dinah McNicol. Pic: PA
Her male friend was dropped off by the man, but she was never seen again.
Following Dinah’s disappearance, large sums of money were withdrawn from her bank account along the south coast. The location of the ATMs linked back to places Tobin had lived.
Police searching Tobin’s former Margate home. Pic: PA
Police recovered Vicky and Dinah’s remains from the back garden of Tobin’s former Margate home. Pic: PA
After 16 years, the mystery surrounding the disappearance of both Vicky and Dinah came to a close with the discovery of their bodies in the back garden of Tobin’s old Margate home.
Vicky had been dismembered.
Flowers placed on the ground where Vicky and Dinah’s remains were found in the garden of Tobin’s former Margate home. Pic: PA
Ian McNicol, Dinah’s father, visiting the Margate home after his daughter’s remains were recovered. Pic: PA
Prosecutors argued Tobin drugged the teenagers with amitriptyline, which he was prescribed at the time, before raping and murdering them.
Tobin once again denied any wrongdoing – despite his fingerprints being found on the refuse bags used to wrap the bodies – but was found guilty of both murders.
In December 2008, he was sentenced to at least 30 years in jail for killing Vicky. The following year he received a whole life order for the death of Dinah.
Lindsay and Sharon Brown, Vicky’s sisters, making a statement outside the High Court in Dundee following Tobin’s conviction in 2008. Pic: PA
Michael Hamilton and Ian McNicol, the fathers of Vicky and Dinah, outside the High Court in Edinburgh in 2010. Tobin failed to appear and would later drop an appeal case. Pic: PA
Tobin died on 8 October 2022.
The HMP Edinburgh inmate had been receiving palliative care at the city’s royal infirmary following a fall in his cell the previous month.
A fatal accident inquiry was held last year, which revealed Tobin was suffering from bronchial pneumonia, vascular disease and prostate cancer at the time of his death.
The serial killer’s ashes were later scattered at sea as no one came forward to claim them.
Tobin has long been suspected by police of murdering other women due to the sheer amount of aliases, cars, and homes he held over his lifetime.
Mr Swindle said: “Tobin’s killed other people – there’s no doubt about it.”
However, Tobin took his secrets to the grave.
Mr Swindle said: “Police Scotland were at his bedside when he was dying and asked him to do the right thing. He didn’t.
“It’s the ultimate control. It’s like Ian Brady – a narcissist. They lack empathy, it’s all about them.”
In 2010, Sussex Police searched an old home of Tobin’s in Portslade. Pic: PA
Tobin’s name was linked to the disappearance of Louise Kay, 18, from Beachy Head in Eastbourne in 1988.
The murder of Jessie Earl, 22, in 1980 was also reinvestigated as part of Operation Anagram.
Her remains were recovered in 1989 in thick undergrowth on Beachy Head, a place she would often take walks and the same area Louise disappeared.
Mr Swindle, left, at the police search in Portslade in 2010. Pic: PA
Mystery continues to surround dozens of pieces of jewellery recovered from Tobin’s possessions in Glasgow after he fled the church following Angelika’s murder.
Mr Swindle believes Tobin’s plan was to move Angelika’s body away from the crime scene – as what he did with Vicky – but police arrived before he could dispose of the evidence.
Mr Swindle said: “That phrase that’s used quite a lot – trophies. I don’t like that phrase. I think the word trophy sounds like a victory. I call it souvenirs from a horrible act.
“And Tobin, I thought, ‘he’s kept them, they’re souvenirs from a terrible act’.
“And to take it further, the jewellery is examined and there’s DNA profiles on that jewellery. Profiles of women, which we’ve never identified. Trophies is a horrible word.”
Read more from Sky News:
Man who had leg amputated after hit-and-run criticises sentence given to driver
Man stabbed to death by girl, 14, was ‘failed by state’, his parents say
Tobin at the High Court in Edinburgh in 2007. Pic: PA
Tobin has also been mentioned in connection with the Bible John killings, a series of murders that brought terror to Glasgow in the late 1960s.
The deaths of the three young women – who met their killer at the city’s renowned Barrowland Ballroom – remain unsolved.
Mr Swindle said: “I’m not convinced the same person was involved in these three murders.
“And there’s no evidence, I don’t think professionally and evidentially, that Peter Tobin killed these women either.”
Police outside Linlithgow Sheriff Court in 2007. Tobin was unable to attend the hearing linked to Vicky’s case due to an attack by a fellow inmate
Police Scotland has since scaled back Operation Anagram.
Mr Swindle retired from the force in 2011 but went on to set up David Swindle Crime Solutions.
As well as offering expert crime advice and spearheading independent case reviews, he can also be found on tour with his latest stage show, Murder: A Search For The Truth.
Mr Swindle additionally established Victims Abroad to help support families who lose a loved one in a foreign country due to homicide or suspicious death and are faced with confusing updates and legal processes in different languages.
Speaking of Operation Anagram, Mr Swindle said: “Throughout my long police career, I’ve worked in some big, big investigations.
“This, for me, is a career defining moment and also a personal and professional defining moment in my life.
“I’ve never worked on anything like it, and I hope never ever to experience it again. And I hope no other serving officers have to experience such horrendous things.”
UK
‘I think it’s appalling’: Man who had leg amputated after hit-and-run criticises sentence given to driver
A man who had his leg amputated after a hit-and-run has criticised the “appalling” sentence given to the motorist – as he backed a campaign to increase the “shoddy” penalties for uninsured drivers.
Ieuan Parry also suffered a fractured skull when he was struck by the driver of a white Mitsubishi fleeing police at high speed near Ebbw Vale, South Wales.
The uninsured motorist fled the scene and Mr Parry – who had been working on the roadside of a closed lane – was left with devastating injuries and the “agony” of “phantom pain” following his amputation.
The driver – who had reached speeds of more than 130mph during the police chase – later tried to blame the incident on his ex-partner by calling 999 and falsely claiming she had stolen his vehicle, according to reports.
He was jailed for three years and four months in February 2024 after pleading guilty to causing serious injury by dangerous driving and perverting the course of justice. It is understood he has since been released from prison.
The car involved in the collision. Pic: Motor Insurers’ Bureau
Mr Parry – who asked Sky News not to name the motorist – said he felt “extremely frustrated” and “angry” about the driver’s actions and believes he should have received a longer prison term.
“I think it’s appalling to be honest with you,” the 27-year-old told Sky News.
“(The sentence was) not harsh enough for the seriousness of his crime.”
The Motor Insurers’ Bureau (MIB), which has been supporting Mr Parry, is now calling for fines for uninsured drivers to increase from £300 to £1,200, saying the current penalty “simply isn’t enough of a deterrent”.
Mr Parry was 24 when he was struck by the car while working by the A465 Heads of the Valleys road near Ebbw Vale in November 2021.
Describing the incident, he said he was using a leaf blower on the roadside shortly after noon when he heard a “droning noise” and looked up to see the vehicle coming towards him at speed.
“Before I had chance to do anything or move, I was struck – hit off my feet,” he said.
“That’s where the nightmare started.”
Mr Parry underwent five surgeries following the collision. Pic: Ieuan Parry
‘Excruciating pain’
Mr Parry suffered a fractured skull and a badly broken left leg that later had to be amputated below the knee.
“(I was in) excruciating pain on the side of the road,” he said.
“I remember asking: ‘Is my leg okay? Will I lose my leg?'”
Despite the severity of his injuries, Mr Parry tried to reach for his phone to contact work colleagues while lying in the road.
“I was more concerned about how it had happened – because I was in a coned-off lane,” he said.
“I wondered, ‘would there be more cars coming behind this car?'”
Some of the damage to the car following the hit-and-run. Pic: MIB
Describing his feelings towards the driver, Mr Parry said: “Obviously extremely frustrated… angry.
“God forbid it never happens, but if I ever found myself in a situation where I’d injured someone, the last thing I’d be doing is thinking about fleeing from the accident.”
Leg amputated
Mr Parry spent 17 days at the University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff where he underwent surgery on five occasions.
Recalling the moment he was told his leg would have to be amputated, he said: “A lot of things went through my mind in terms of work, the relationship with my girlfriend… how everything in my life that I’ve worked towards thus far was going to be flipped round on its head.
“I did find that very difficult to deal with… losing your independence, not being able to go to the toilet on your own, not being able to wash yourself, not being able to do even the simplest of tasks.”
Mr Parry said his life ‘flipped’ following the hit-and-run. Pic: Ieuan Parry
Since the amputation, Mr Parry said he has dealt with the “weird sensation” of “phantom pain”, which he continues to face to this day.
“It’s basically the nerves that still reside in my amputated leg sending signals to the brain,” he said.
“It’s almost like you feel as if your amputated limb is still there and you can get various sensations, from pins and needles and numbness…. through to quite severe pain.
“It almost feels like someone’s got a set of pliers on your toe and is squeezing it.
“Those sorts of pains, although they are getting better now, are still fairly frequent and they can immobilise you with agony.”
Read more:
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‘My life is never going to go back to normal’
Mr Parry has also faced feelings of anxiety over the “massive change” in his appearance and his inability to do tasks he once found “very straightforward”.
He said he was “eternally grateful” for the support of his close family – particularly his partner Sophie who he married in June last year.
“There’s no way on this I’d have been able to cope with it on my own,” he added.
Since the collision, Mr Parry has started his own fencing and groundwork company but said: “I’ve come to the realisation that my life is never going to go back to normal as it was before.”
Mr Parry said he was ‘eternally grateful’ for the support of his wife Sophie. Pic: Ieuan Parry
He added: “I’m always going to have disadvantages and issues with mobility and completing tasks, where I would not even have thought twice about it before.”
Campaign to increase uninsured driving penalties
The MIB is calling on the government to increase the current £300 fine for driving uninsured to £1,200 as part of its new five-year strategy, called Accelerating To Zero, which aims to end uninsured driving for good.
A YouGov poll of more than 2,000 people found 78% did not think a £300 fine was enough of a deterrent and three-quarters supported increasing the fine to £1,200, according to the MIB.
The MIB’s chief executive Angus Eaton said uninsured drivers “wreck lives”, adding: “We believe that the current penalty of £300, which hasn’t changed in over 10 years, simply isn’t enough of a deterrent.
“We’re calling for the penalty to be raised so that it is double the average premium, to help eradicate the issue.”
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Mr Parry has backed the campaign, saying a fine for uninsured driving “definitely needs to be a lot more than £300”.
“For the fine to be less than an average insurance premium for the year, I think it’s a bit shoddy,” he added.
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “We take uninsured driving very seriously – it is dangerous and unacceptable.
“That is why the department is considering policy options on the motoring offences as part of the Road Safety Strategy.”
Sports
From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
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