
Mountain West preview: Burning questions in Mountain division
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adminWyoming finished with its worst SP+ ranking since 2015, San Diego State had its worst since 2013. At 59th, Boise State had its worst ranking since 1998. At 126th and 128th, Colorado State and Hawaii had their worst since 1981 and 1976, respectively. Nevada hadn’t ranked worse than 125th since 1933. New Mexico had never ranked as low as 130th. Only two Mountain West teams saw their rankings improve in 2022 (San Jose State and UNLV … which fired its coach?), and five teams fell by at least 30 spots. (Nevada fell by 74.)
It wasn’t a great year for the Group of Five conference out west, in other words. In its 18-year existence, the MWC had never finished with an average SP+ ranking worse than 87.7, and it was 97.7 in 2022. The conference had four new head coaches (all of whom oversaw regression) and the worst returning production averages in the country by far, and while its two division champions (Fresno State and Boise State) both flashed upside, they also both battled quarterback injuries and overall inconsistency.
A rebound isn’t guaranteed in 2023, but there are reasons for hope. In the Mountain Division, Boise State has its QB situation figured out and boasts one of the conference’s higher returning production averages. Wyoming went from near the bottom of the returning production list to near the top. Air Force returns the bones of an outstanding defense, the injury bug has almost no choice but to be kinder to Utah State, and both Colorado State and New Mexico have enough potential at quarterback to make them candidates for overachieving projections.
Last year was a nadir. Let’s talk about what we might see this fall.
The MWC ditched divisions and will send its top two finishers to the conference championship game this fall, but for the sake of this two-part preview we’ll break them into division-shaped batches. Let’s preview the MWC Mountain!
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: Conference USA, part 1 | Conference USA, part 2 | MAC East | MAC West
2022 recap
Boise State had the good sense to time its funk for before conference play. That made the difference in an uneventful Mountain race. After a dire 27-10 loss to UTEP in Week 4, second-year head coach Andy Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and replaced him with former BSU head coach and NFL offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal, so Koetter called plays for freshman Taylen Green instead.
It worked. BSU went 8-0 in MWC play, winning the division by three games over Air Force (which had suffered its own funk at the beginning of conference play), Wyoming (whose offense faltered terribly late in the year) and Utah State (who went 4-0 in one-score games to eke out bowl eligibility). Colorado State and New Mexico, meanwhile, went a combined 5-19 overall, 3-13 in conference.
2023 projections
Former BSU quarterback and Missouri assistant Bush Hamdan takes over as offensive coordinator in Boise, but Green returns, as do eight other offensive starters. The Broncos’ defense is dealing with turnover, but with Air Force starting over offensively and everyone else playing catch-up, the Broncos start out as a clear favorite. That makes sense considering, well, they’ve won five of the last six Mountain crowns. If there’s a monkey wrench in their plan to make it six of seven, however, it might be the Air Force defense.
Burning questions
Which of last year’s three Boise States takes the field in 2023? For some teams, SP+ draws a pretty good bead on you from the start. For others, it’s chasing a moving target all year. Boise State fit into the latter category.
Boise State vs. SP+ projections in 2022
First four games: underachieved by 14.4 PPG (-8.3 on offense, -6.1 on defense)
Next four games: overachieved by 13.5 PPG (+9.0 on offense, +4.5 on defense)
Last six games: underachieved by 3.7 PPG (-0.1 on offense, -3.6 on defense)
The Broncos were projected 35th to start the season, but they got trounced at both Oregon State and UTEP and fell as low as 81st. The post-UTEP offensive changes took hold nicely, however, and they beat four MWC opponents, including Fresno State and San Diego State, by an average of 36-14 to climb back toward the top 50. But down the stretch, the offense played to projections while the defense slipped.
I figure we can assume good things from the offense. The experience levels are massive, and for a freshman who wasn’t even supposed to play, Green really was outstanding. He rushed for more than 100 yards three times and threw for more than 200 yards six times, and BSU averaged 32.5 points per game when he started and 22 when he didn’t. The combination of Green and 1,100-yard rusher George Holani gives the Broncos the best backfield in the MWC, and Green will have sure-handed slot man Latrell Caples and a seasoned receiving corps at his disposal too. The line must replace three regulars, including John Ojukwu, the latest of many awesome BSU left tackles, but it returns four players with solid starting experience. Right tackle Cade Beresford is particularly strong.
It’s hard to know what to make of the defense, though. The Broncos finished a lofty 28th in defensive SP+ because of early-season prowess and dominance of bad offenses, but they suffered increasing glitches late, then lost nine of the 18 players who saw 250-plus snaps, including four of the top five in an aggressive secondary.
Avalos is an outstanding defensive coach — it’s been a while since he was associated with a bad defense — and seems to work well with coordinator Spencer Danielson. They still have play-makers in linebacker DJ Schramm and edge rusher Demitri Washington, and sophomore linebacker Andrew Simpson could become a star soon. But depth could be an issue in both the front and back unless some transfers (three on the line, one four-year plus two JUCOs in the secondary) click. If BSU still fields a top-40 defense, the Broncos will be far and away the division favorite. But attrition can catch up to you at times.
Can Air Force keep this run of incredible defense going? At a school that can’t redshirt players (and, in recent times, hasn’t been able to take advantage of the NCAA giving everyone an extra year of eligibility), Air Force coach Troy Calhoun has been a bit limited by experience — sometimes his team has it, and sometimes it doesn’t. From 2012 to 2019, Calhoun’s Falcons suffered four losing seasons and won double-digit games three times, depending in part on the level of turnover they had suffered the year before. But starting in 2019, the program began taking on a different, almost reliable look.
Air Force’s average SP+ rankings
Calhoun’s first 12 years (2007-18): 67.9 overall, 60.7 offense, 68.8 defense
Calhoun’s last four years (2019-22): 47.8 overall, 90.3 offense, 16.8 defense
The Falcons have won at least 10 games in each of their last three full seasons, and their defense has been just about the best in the Group of Five. They benefit from the way their offense slows games down — it doesn’t score as many points as it used to, but it exposed the defense to the fewest number of plays and drives per game last season. But when the defense is on the field, it dominates. The Falcons were ninth in rushing success rate allowed in 2022 despite size disadvantages up front, they rushed the passer well when opponents were behind schedule, and they played brilliant red zone defense, allowing just a 43% red zone touchdown rate (fourth in FBS).
After years of winning games by frustrating the opposing defense with its option attack, Air Force now wins games by frustrating foes’ offense even more. And its defensive dominance continued after losing coordinator John Rudzinski to Virginia last season. Veteran Brian Knorr, a former Air Force quarterback, took the reins and kept the momentum going — and with a pretty young unit, to boot. Of the 13 defenders with 250-plus snaps, nine return, including 260-pound play-making tackles Peyton Zdroik and Jayden Thiergood up front and most of the secondary.
The Falcons should have another outstanding defense in 2023, but the offense has indeed slid backward a bit in recent years and now faces an overhaul. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels and 1,700-yard rusher Brad Roberts carried the ball a combined 471 times (not including sacks) last season, and both are gone. So are three of the next four leading rushers and both of the players who caught more than three passes in this run-heavy attack. The line could be a saving grace — it returns all but one regular, including three all-conference contenders in tackles Everett Smalley and Kaleb Holcomb and guard Wesley Ndago. But fullback John Lee Eldridge III will be the only familiar face touching the ball in 2023, and this was already an offense that has seen diminishing returns in recent years. The defense can carry a ton of the burden, but it has to get at least some help.
Can Wyoming field a merely decent offense at some point? Aside from geography and elevation, Wyoming and Air Force don’t have a lot in common — different recruiting aims, different budgets, different just about everything. But they have been similarly lopsided in recent years. Since 2017, Craig Bohl’s Wyoming program has gone .500 or better in every (full) season because of a brilliant defense that has averaged a 33.3 ranking in defensive SP+. Bohl has beautifully rebuilt the defensive culture he established at North Dakota State, and the Cowboys have benefited from it.
They have yet to win more than eight games in a season, however, because in that same span the offense has averaged a grotesque SP+ ranking of 115.7. As with Air Force, they chew up clock with a slow tempo, and they run the ball effectively at times: The trio of Titus Swen, Dawaiian McNeely and D.Q. James averaged 24 carries per game and 5.6 yards per carry last year. But when the Cowboys fell behind schedule, the drive ended. They were 118th in passing downs success rate. Quarterback Andrew Peasley completed just 52% of his passes with a 10-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio and a No. 112 Total QBR ranking.
The defense slid a bit in 2022, in part because of inexperience. That could go from liability to asset this fall: Of the 16 players who saw at least 250 snaps, 13 return, and 10 were either freshmen or sophomores last fall. Nine players made at least four tackles for loss, and eight are back. The Cowboys still ranked a solid 66th in defensive SP+ and defended the pass beautifully. The line was particularly young, however, and the run defense struggled; they ranked 94th in rushing success rate allowed and, shockingly for a Bohl defense, 125th in tackle success rate.
If inexperience was the main issue (and it probably was), the front seven should rebound, and this could easily be another high-level defense. The question, then, is whether anything will ever change on offense. Peasley returns, as do McNeely and James, and Northern Illinois transfer Harrison Waylee should take Swen’s place pretty well. The offensive line is huge: Five returning regulars average 6-foot-5, 312 pounds. Bohl clearly desires conservatism and physicality over everything else on offense, and that’s fine. But you still have to be able to throw the ball occasionally, and Wyoming wasn’t even good at that when Josh Allen was behind center.
This is a 10-win defense paired with a three-win offense. Annual bowl eligibility is a pretty incredible thing in this job, but Bohl’s success has also revealed his program’s limitations. It’s not too late for Wyoming to evolve — or for Bohl to maybe climb aboard the fourth downs bandwagon (Wyoming went for it on only 6% of fourth downs last season, lowest in FBS) — but it’s hard to believe that might happen.
What does a stable Utah State look like? The only predictable thing about a recent Utah State football season has been that it’s probably going to be completely different than the one the year before.
2017: 6-7 record, 81st in SP+
2018: 11-2 record, 16th in SP+
2019: 7-6 record, 73rd in SP+
2020: 1-5 record, 121st in SP+
2021: 11-3 record, 62nd in SP+
2022: 6-7 record, 114th in SP+
That’s five straight years with at least a five-game change in the win total and at least a 48-spot shift in the SP+ rankings. The Aggies have averaged seven wins per year in this span, with a ranking in the 70s, but they’ve only won seven games or finished in the 70s once.
The good news, as it were, is that USU can’t sink another 48 spots in SP+ this year — I guess that means the Aggies will rise again despite poor SP+ projections.
In 2021, Blake Anderson led the Aggies to a Mountain West title in his first season in charge. They were one of the most fortunate teams in the country — they were only 62nd in SP+, and the combination of close wins (4-0 in one-score games) and blowout losses made them a major 2022 regression candidate even though they looked really good late that season.
Sure enough, they got worse. And then injuries took a major toll. Only three defenders started all 13 games, and the offense, stable by comparison, still lost quarterback Logan Bonner early in the season and had to start redshirting freshman Bishop Davenport for one game as well. That the Aggies only fell from 55th to 78th in offensive SP+ was encouraging, though they’ll be attempting a rebound with four new offensive line starters and without 1,100-yard rusher Calvin Tyler Jr. or 900-yard receiver Brian Cobbs. Leading passer Cooper Legas and Davenport both return, but the rest of the offense is fighting massive turnover.
The defense should benefit from a kinder injury bug and boasts some solid veteran play-makers in linebackers AJ Vongphachanh and MJ Tafisi, tackle Hale Motu’apuaka and corner Michael Anyanwu. But three of last year’s top four linemen are gone, as are three of the top five defensive backs. That Anderson signed five JUCO DLs and four JUCO DBs tells you he was pretty concerned about those units. And he probably should have been: Even with injuries, the fact that they fell from 55th to 123rd in defensive SP+ was alarming. Anderson brought in veteran coordinator Joe Cauthen to help stem the tide. If he wants another huge surge forward, these changes need to take root quickly.
Who digs out of this rut first, Colorado State or New Mexico? It just feels like Colorado State should be good at football. The Rams took a massive step forward during the Sonny Lubick era in the 1990s and 2000s (they were ranked for part of every season from 1997 to 2003 and bowled 15 times between 1994 and 2017), their new stadium (Canvas Stadium) is gorgeous, they’ve been vaguely associated with Big 12 and Pac-12 expansion rumors through the years, and we’ve watched them beat power-conference rival Colorado early in the season plenty of times — seven times from 1999 to 2014, in fact.
Anything positive you can say about the Rams program, however, has an expiration date attached. CSU has been downright bad for half a decade now. Since 2018, it has gone 14-36 with an average SP+ ranking of 110.8. That’s better than border rival New Mexico (12-43 with an average ranking of 118.2), but not by much. That beautiful new stadium in Fort Collins? The Rams are 12-21 in it. That includes a 2-3 record against FCS teams, the last two of which have beaten them by a combined 83-33. At least New Mexico has the excuse of a lower budget and a state with far fewer FBS recruits!
Last year, Colorado State replaced Steve Addazio (4-12 in two seasons) with Nevada’s Jay Norvell. He loaded up on transfers — including many from Nevada — in an attempt to hit the ground running. Instead, CSU’s offense disintegrated, and the Rams began the season with four losses by an average of 41-11. The defense was mostly solid in conference play, and CSU somehow managed to go 3-5 in the MWC despite never scoring more than 17 points.
With the defense returning eight starters, the Rams could be set up to solidify last year’s gains. Sophomore quarterback Clay Millen returns as well after completing 72% of his passes last season. Unfortunately, if he wasn’t completing a deep ball to Tory Horton, the offense was accomplishing absolutely nothing.
Horton needs more skill corps support, and Millen has to hope that a completely turned-over offensive line — seven of last year’s top nine are gone, replaced by three small-school transfers and three JUCOs — somehow solidifies. It doesn’t usually work that way, but at least last year’s line was really bad, so the bar isn’t very high.
The only FBS offense that graded out worse than CSU’s? New Mexico’s. The Lobos have ranked dead last in offensive SP+ for two straight years; fourth-year head coach Danny Gonzales inherited a pretty dire situation from Bob Davie in 2020, but his only upgrades have come on defense where his former mentor, Rocky Long, coordinated a solid unit for each of the last two seasons. Long is off to Syracuse, however, and of the 15 defenders who saw at least 250 snaps in 2022, only five return. New coordinator Troy Reffett has his work cut out for him.
If Gonzales is to create fourth-year improvement, a completely remodeled offense will have to improve significantly. The offensive coaching staff, now led by coordinator Bryant Vincent (formerly of UAB), is almost completely new, and if there’s hope it comes from the fact that Vincent brought former UAB quarterback Dylan Hopkins with him. Hopkins isn’t amazing, but he has ranked 55th and 70th in Total QBR over the last two seasons; UNM hasn’t had a quarterback rank higher than 118th in the Gonzales era. The offensive line is loaded with experience, if nothing else, and the skill corps could get a boost from an influx of transfers.
Neither Colorado State nor New Mexico have ranked higher than 84th in offensive SP+ since 2017. Both teams have intriguing quarterbacks, but both also have depth charts that took huge hits in key areas. The potential for defensive collapse is high enough at UNM that I guess I trust CSU to perform better this season. But “better” is relative.
My 10 favorite players
QB Taylen Green, Boise State. With the right play-calling and decent injuries luck, Green has 3,000/1,000 (passing and rushing yards) potential. He’ll have a wonderfully experienced skill corps around him this fall too.
RB Nathaniel Jones, New Mexico. Considering the degree of difficulty (that’s a polite way of saying he got little help), the fact that Jones gained 10-plus yards on 14% of his carries and averaged 2.7 yards per carry after contact suggests he could do big things with a better supporting cast.
WR Tory Horton, Colorado State. Like Jones, Horton produced intriguing numbers with minimal help. He posted five games with more than 125 receiving yards and averaged 15.9 yards per catch even though opponents knew he was the only guy they needed to stop.
RT Everett Smalley, Air Force. Even in college, you can find plenty of mammoth offensive tackles, 6-foot-6 or taller and 315 pounds or heavier. The best tackle in the MWC, however, might be Smalley. At 6-foot-3, 260. He’s the best run-blocking tackle, anyway.
C Nofoafia Tulafono, Wyoming. The 325-pound junior from Victorville, California, earned second-team all-conference honors from PFF last season after producing a blown block rate of just 0.7%. He allowed zero pass pressures.
DE Mohamed Kamara, Colorado State. The CSU defense had to be perfect for the Rams to win games last year, and while Kamara was good all season (17 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, 12 run stops), he was even better in their victories. As valuable a defender as you’ll find.
DE Braden Siders, Wyoming. As a redshirt freshman on a line desperate for new playmakers, Siders stepped up, compiling 13 TFLs, 7 sacks and 11 run stops. He even looked good dropping into coverage. Just imagine what he might do with experience!
DT Hale Motu’apuaka, Utah State. In two years as a major player in Logan, Motu’apuaka has improved as the season has progressed – 9.5 of his 16 TFLs have come after Nov. 1. Is this the year he hits the ground running?
LB Bo Richter, Air Force. With last year’s top two OLBs gone, more will be asked of the senior from Naperville, Illinois. Considering he had 7.5 TFLs in just 326 snaps last year, a starter’s load might result in massive production.
S Rodney Robinson, Boise State. One of the smallest safeties you’ll see (5-foot-8, 185 pounds) is also one of the best. He picked off three passes, made a pair of run stops and lined up everywhere from cornerback to inside linebacker.
Anniversaries
In 1958, 65 years ago, Air Force finished sixth in the polls … in its second season. In 1955, the Air Force fielded its first official football team, one that lost to the Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma freshman teams by a combined 113-12. Three years later, the Falcons beat the Colorado varsity team, 20-14. In just their second year at the major college level, they went an incredible 9-0-2, beating a pair of Big 8 teams (CU and Oklahoma State), tying both No. 8 Iowa early in the season and No. 10 TCU in the Cotton Bowl and finishing sixth in the AP poll. It was Ben Martin‘s first season in charge, and he would lead the team to another major bowl appearance and ranked finish in 1970.
In 1993, 30 years ago, Colorado State hired Sonny Lubick. I can say whatever I want about Colorado State’s potential, but the Rams had shown very little of it before Lubick’s arrival.
Lubick’s career had already been ridiculously unique — he spent most of the 1960s at the high school level in Montana and, in the 1980s, had served as both an offensive coordinator (at Colorado State) and national title-winning defensive coordinator (at Miami) — and he completely transformed the CSU program. The Rams had bowled just twice ever, but he had them in the Holiday Bowl by his second season, and his tenure finished with nine bowl appearances, six conference titles, three ranked finishes and, eventually, his name on Colorado State’s Sonny Lubick Field.
In 1998, 25 years ago, New Mexico replaced Dennis Franchione with Rocky Long. Franchione had been the school’s best hire in decades, eventually lifting the Lobos to a nine-win season and their first bowl appearance in 36 years in 1997. He left for TCU, but Long, UCLA’s irascible and innovative defensive coordinator, took the program even further. After a short adjustment period, Long’s Lobos went to five bowls in six years (2002-07) as he perfected his 3-3-5 defense, beating Texas Tech, Missouri, Baylor and Arizona (and shutting out Colin Kaepernick and Nevada) in the process. He left after a 4-8 stumble in 2008, and UNM has bowled only twice in the 14 years since.
In 2008, 15 years ago, Kellen Moore took over behind center for Boise State. The Boise State story was already one for the history books before Moore arrived from the small town of Prosser, Washington. After rising from the FCS ranks in the 1990s, the Broncos had already enjoyed three straight ranked seasons from 2002 to ’04, and they had already pulled off the great unbeaten season of 2006, complete with a win in one of the best bowls of all time.
The Moore era was the golden era, however. From 2008 to ’11, he threw for 14,667 yards with a 70% completion rate and 142 touchdowns, and the Broncos beat Oregon (twice), Georgia, TCU, Virginia Tech, Oregon State and Arizona State on their way to a combined 50-3 record with poll finishes of 11th, fourth, ninth and eighth. If a 12-team CFP would have been in existence in these years, the Broncos would have been a genuine title threat. They were incredible. So was Moore.
In 2013, 10 years ago, Utah State began Mountain West life in fine form. It’s important to play good football. It’s even more important to play well at the right time. After a lengthy run of poor form — the Aggies averaged just 3.2 wins per season from 1998 to 2008 while bouncing among the Big West, Sun Belt and WAC – Utah State began to improve rapidly under Gary Andersen. In 2011, they enjoyed their best season in 18 years (a 7-6 campaign) … just in time to jump to the MWC with San Jose State as the WAC fell apart. Other WAC programs weren’t so lucky: New Mexico State and Idaho, which had just gone a combined 6-19 in 2011 (and would go 2-22 in 2012), ended up without a conference, and Idaho ended up dropping to FCS.
Utah State kept playing well too. The Aggies went 11-2 and finished 16th in the AP poll in 2012, then went a combined 19-9 with a MWC championship game appearance under Matt Wells (Andersen had left for Wisconsin) in their first two seasons in their new conference. Despite 2022’s stumble, they’ve enjoyed three ranked finishes and 10 bowls in their last 12 seasons after recording just one of the former and four of the latter in their entire pre-2011 history.
In 2018, five years ago, Wyoming gave Josh Allen to the NFL. It’s worked out pretty well for everyone involved.
What’s your favorite @JoshAllenQB play from 2021? ? pic.twitter.com/vPKPUbAJYU
— NFL (@NFL) February 23, 2022
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College football hot seats: Brace yourselves for potential blue-blood turnover
Published
37 mins agoon
August 29, 2025By
admin
The college football job market took an expected turn last year.
The headwinds of financial uncertainty, combined with a record number of jobs turning over in 2023, led to a quieter year on the coaching carousel, especially at high-end schools.
Last offseason, there was a dip in head coaching changes at FBS football, with 30 total. The year before, a record 32 jobs turned over, per NCAA statistics.
Notably last offseason, no jobs turned over in the SEC and there was just one in the Big Ten (Purdue). Only West Virginia and UCF turned over in the Big 12, and the ACC had three changes (North Carolina, Wake Forest and Stanford).
None of those jobs would remotely qualify as blue bloods, which has the industry bracing for what could end up being a big year for high-end coaching turnover. The carousel rests for only so long.
That has led to a fascinating tension that will serve as the backdrop for this year’s edition: In an era when a vast majority of schools are scrambling for resources and revenue, are schools ready to pay big buyout money to part with their coaches? For big movement this year, there will have to be one or two big buyouts.
“The signs are that it’s going to be a pretty big year,” said an industry source. “There’s 15 to 20 schools in flux, and it was really light last year. That combination lends itself to a big year.
“But the question is whether 6-6 is worth making a change when you need to find 20-plus million? I think the trend is going to schools looking not to make the decision.”
There’s a counter to that perspective, and it’s a peek at the college basketball market from last year. Places like Indiana, Villanova, Iowa, Minnesota, NC State, Texas and Utah all paid sizable buyouts to kick-start new eras.
“I think people are past the rev share issues,” another industry source said. “They were stalled out last year in the football carousel, but they didn’t have any trouble getting going in the basketball carousel.”
Jimbo Fisher’s football buyout from Texas A&M in 2023 was $76.8 million, which included $19.2 million within 60 days and $7.2 million annually with no offset or mitigation. That’s the Secretariat-at-the-Belmont runaway winner for the biggest in the history of the sport.
The second-biggest public buyout belongs to Auburn, which fired Gus Malzahn in 2020 and owed him $21.7 million.
If this is indeed going to be an active coaching carousel among high-end jobs, the Malzahn number will need to be toppled. And the Fisher buyout has a chance to be as well.
Ultimately, the case for an active coaching carousel starts with big-name jobs that are in flux, the so-called market moves that ripple through the industry. A majority of those potential openings — although not all — would involve heavy lifting from a buyout perspective.
One source pointed out that schools in the SEC and Big Ten will have new line items that could make a big buyout more tenable, as there’s an influx of CFP money coming.
One school told ESPN that it has budgeted an additional $8 million additional for bowl revenue for the new CFP starting in 2026. (The specific amount is tricky, as there’s a flurry of variables that make a finite number tough to pin down.)
That makes the particulars of the buyouts important. How much money is up front? Is there offset and mitigation?
Here’s a look at the jobs with the buyout tension that could set the market, as well as other jobs worth monitoring across each conference.
Jump to a topic:
Big buyouts | Other Big Ten
Other SEC | Other ACC
Big 12 | Group of 5
Big buyouts
USC | Lincoln Riley (26-14 entering Year 4)
Buyout: More than $80 million
Nearly everything has changed since Lincoln Riley came to Los Angeles. Most notably, the results. After an 11-3 debut in 2022, he has gone 8-5 and 7-6 with losses along the way to Maryland, Minnesota and UCLA. The splash of the hire has worn off amid close losses, media clashes and modest expectations for 2025.
His winning percentage with the Trojans is 65.0%, which is lower than Clay Helton’s USC winning percentage (65.7) when he was fired. It’s also nearly 20% worse than his Oklahoma win percentage (84.6).
Many of the core people Riley brought with him from Oklahoma have been removed or seen their roles diminish, with the firing of strength coach Bennie Wylie and the hiring of new general manager Chad Bowden recent examples of significant personnel changes around him.
Athletic director Jennifer Cohen didn’t hire Riley. She also has made clear that there are championship expectations. She has invested accordingly, including a new football performance center that’s under construction and plenty of staff infrastructure and NIL financial gunpowder.
Although firing Riley would generate eye-popping financial headlines, the understanding is that there is offset and mitigation on his deal. That would diminish the number owed him over time. He’s too gifted a playcaller and offensive mind to sit out through the length of his deal, which was originally a 10-year contract that began in the 2023 season. (His buyout to leave is minimal if he chose to go elsewhere, but leaving that much guaranteed money behind would be hard.)
Without high-end results, there will continue to be uncertainty. USC will be favored in its first four games, and then it enters one of the most difficult stretches on any schedule this year — at Illinois, Michigan, at Notre Dame and at Nebraska. (There’s a bye between the trips to South Bend and Lincoln.)
That means by Nov. 1, we’ll get a sense of what Riley truly has built in his fourth season and where his tenure is headed.
The best news for Riley is there’s hope on the way, as USC has the No. 1 recruiting class for 2026, which includes 19 ESPN 300 prospects.
Florida State | Mike Norvell (33-27 entering Year 6)
Buyout: $58 million
This was unthinkable two years ago, when FSU went undefeated in the regular season and won the ACC. But since quarterback Jordan Travis’ injury and the subsequent College Football Playoff snub following 2023, everything has gone wrong for FSU.
In the wake of FSU’s 2-10 season last year, Norvell has overhauled the coaching staff, given up playcalling and brought in new coordinators. Florida State can’t really afford to fire him, but it also can’t afford to trudge through another miserable season like last year.
Norvell also agreed to a restructured new deal, which includes donating $4.5 million of his salary to the program in 2025. Effectively, Norvell took a performance pay cut. (He can earn that back, too, as included in the new deal is a $750,000 bonus for nine wins.)
The 2024 implosion came at a time when Florida State had actively — and awkwardly — been lobbying to find a new conference home. That bluster has died down, and the financials of leaving the ACC are clear. FSU’s need to get back to winning is rooted in those grander ambitions.
What’s important here if FSU does have to move on is that Norvell’s remaining money is subject to offset and mitigation. He’d likely be a strong candidate to coach again, which would blunt some of the financial pain.
Norvell went 23-4 in 2022 and 2023, which built up some grace. Here’s what no one knows: What is enough progress for 2025?
Oklahoma | Brent Venables (22-17 entering Year 4)
Buyout: $36.1 million
Oklahoma extended Venables through the 2029 season in the summer of 2024. The Sooners subsequently went 6-7 in their SEC debut, which led to some scrutiny of that deal.
Venables is popular in Norman, dating back to his time as an assistant. Like many defensive head coaches early in his career, he made a misstep at offensive coordinator that quelled the momentum from OU’s 10-2 season in its Big 12 finale in 2023.
There’s an athletic director shift coming at Oklahoma, with Joe Castiglione retiring. There also has been new blood in the football program, with general manager Jim Nagy coming in this offseason from the Senior Bowl.
This season is a fascinating litmus test for OU’s viability in the SEC. The Sooners have fortified the roster with a significant upgrade at quarterback (John Mateer), expect better health at wide receiver and have made holistic upgrades.
But the reality is that most teams are going to lose half their games in the SEC, and it’d be a poor time for Venables to have a bad year. The Sooners also play seven teams ranked in the preseason Top 25, and that doesn’t include Missouri or Auburn.
Wisconsin | Luke Fickell (13-13 entering Year 3)
Buyout: More than $25 million
Wisconsin ended last year with five straight losses and missed a bowl for the first time since 2001.
Wisconsin extended Fickell after last year, but that didn’t impact his buyout. There’s optimism for a change of trajectory, as Wisconsin is undergoing a schematic shift back to the school’s identity roots as a running offense. It will be a welcomed change after the failed Air Raid experiment.
The factor that has this job coming up in industry circles is Wisconsin’s schedule, which might make it difficult for the Badgers to take a significant step forward. They play at Alabama, at Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, at Oregon, Washington, at Indiana, Illinois and at Minnesota.
Wisconsin could be a better team but have a similar record. The institutional history, Fickell’s general track record and buyout expense suggest patience is likely.
Other jobs worth monitoring
Big Ten
Maryland: Mike Locksley’s strong run at Maryland took a hairpin turn last year, as the Terps went 4-8, 1-8 in Big Ten play and Locksley admitted he lost the locker room. There’s a lot of goodwill from Locksley’s three consecutive bowl games, which hadn’t happened since Ralph Friedgen’s tenure in 2008. But there’s also a new athletic director, Jim Smith, and an expectation to return to winning. Maryland is heavily favored in its three games to open the year (FAU, Northern Illinois and Towson), which could quiet things. Locksley would be owed $13.4 million if fired, a considerable amount for Maryland. He’d also have 50% of that due in 60 days, a sizable check for a university not flush with cash.
SEC
Auburn: Hugh Freeze faces a classic win-or-else season at Auburn. The Tigers have strong talent upgrades from both the portal and recruiting. But Auburn is not a traditionally patient place, so Freeze’s 11-14 record there needs to improve quickly. He’d be owed just under $15.4 million, which is expensive but not something Auburn would flinch at if there are modest results again. Don’t expect him to be around if Auburn has another losing season.
Arkansas: The goofiest buyout in college sports looms over any potential decision on Sam Pittman. If he’s .500 or above since 2021 — he enters the year 27-24 in that time frame — Arkansas would have to pay him nearly $9.8 million. To keep the buyout at this higher level, he’d need to win five games. If Pittman goes 4-8, the number would be nearly $6.9 million. Credit Pittman, who revived Arkansas from the depths of Chad Morris’ era and keeps on surviving. If he’s above four wins, Arkansas would face scrutiny for issuing such a bizarre contract and the extra money it’d cost the program to fire him.
Florida: The temperature on Billy Napier has cooled considerably, and the Gators have a top-flight quarterback and great expectations again. He’s 19-19 through three seasons, and his buyout remains eye-popping at $20.4 million. (There’s no offset or mitigation on the deal.) Athletic director Scott Stricklin gave Napier a midseason vote of confidence last year by announcing he’d return, and Florida responded with a strong finishing kick by winning four straight to close the year. Stricklin clearly has his back. And per an ESPN source, Stricklin has three additional years added to his contract, which now runs through 2030. That bodes well for Napier, as they are clearly aligned.
ACC
Stanford: General manager Andrew Luck’s first significant hire looms. With interim coach Frank Reich clear that he’s on The Farm short term, Luck needs to decide whether he wants someone from the college ranks or the NFL. What’s unique about this job is that the hire will be made through the shared prism of how Luck sees the identity of the program, not necessarily just a coach coming in and bringing the identity.
Virginia Tech: It’s a classic prove-it year for Brent Pry, who has two years remaining on his original contract. He’d be owed $6.2 million if fired on Dec. 1. He’s 16-21 over three years and 1-12 in one-score games, and Tech’s ambitions are clearly greater than that. Considerable improvement is needed, or Tech will hit reset as the administration appears motivated by the fear of getting left behind in the next iteration of the collegiate landscape. Athletic director Whit Babcock has hired Pry and Justin Fuente, which would mean his future could be in flux if a change comes here. ADs don’t often get to hire three coaches.
Virginia: There was a discernable uptick in investment and aggression by Virginia in the portal this offseason. That’s a sign the pressure is ratcheted up on Tony Elliott, who is 11-23 through three seasons. He entered a job with arguably the worst facilities in power conference football. He also dealt with unspeakable tragedy: the murder of three players in a campus shooting. UVA showed signs of progress last year with five wins, and that needs to continue. Elliott is owed more than $11.1 million if fired on Dec. 1, and UVA is more likely to need to direct that to the roster than a payout.
Cal: Can Cal do better than Justin Wilcox? It’s unlikely, as he has led the team to four bowls since taking over in 2017. Cal has no athletic director, landed in an awkward geographic league and is working to financially catch up to the rest of the sport. Wilcox would be owed $10.9 million if he’s fired, which would seemingly be too rich for Cal to handle. But with so much change afoot, there’s an industry expectation that something could happen here, as Wilcox could also have other suitors.
Big 12
Oklahoma State: The school forced Mike Gundy into a reduced salary and buyout. Those are fluorescent signs of a school preparing to move on, although the buyout remains significant at $15 million. It would be a seminal moment for a school to fire a coach who has more than 100 more wins than the next most successful coach in school history. Gundy is 169-88, but the program fell off a cliff last year at 3-9. The roster doesn’t offer much optimism for drastic improvement, and essentially the entire coaching staff is new. Gundy has done some of his best work with low expectations, and that’s what OSU has in 2025.
Arizona: Arizona’s dip from 10-3 in Jedd Fisch’s first year to 4-8 in Brent Brennan’s first season has led to scrutiny. Also, there has been a new athletic director brought in since Brennan was hired. The buyout price is steep at $10.6 million, but it’s something Arizona is expected to consider if there’s no improvement. It doesn’t help matters for Brennan that rival Arizona State burst into the CFP in Kenny Dillingham’s second year.
Cincinnati: There have been growing pains entering the Big 12 for the Bearcats, who are 4-14 in league play in the first two years. There’s an expectation for continued improvement in Scott Satterfield’s third year, as he went 3-9 in Year 1 and jumped to 5-7 last year. The Bearcats lost their final five games last year. The buyout tab is nearly $12 million, which is a lot for a school that moved its opener against Nebraska to Kansas City for financial reasons.
Baylor: The temperature on Dave Aranda’s seat has cooled exponentially compared with the past two seasons. He snapped a skid of two losing seasons by going 8-5 last year and 6-3 in the Big 12. A change would require a precipitous downturn, as Aranda is beloved in Waco. There’s an unforgiving schedule, however, that opens with Auburn and a trip to SMU. His buyout is in the $12 million range, and it’s unlikely to be tested.
Group of 5
American: The American might have been the biggest surprise in the 2024 coaching carousel, with FAU, Tulsa and Charlotte all firing coaches after just two seasons. Temple, Rice and East Carolina also fired their coaches. Oddly, the worries over revenue share spending didn’t intimidate these schools from making moves.
There’s really only one job squarely in the crosshairs, and that’s Trent Dilfer at UAB, who is 7-17 in two seasons. He’d be owed nearly $2.5 million if dismissed. UAB has struggled to translate its strong run in Conference USA to the American since joining in 2023.
Conference USA: This also projects to be a quieter year in Conference USA, with only Louisiana Tech having a coach potentially in flux. Sonny Cumbie went 5-8 last year after opening with back-to-back 3-9 seasons. He’ll need continued improvement to stick around for that school’s eventual transition to the Sun Belt. He’d be owed nearly $875,000 if let go, as 2026 is the last year of his deal.
MAC: There’s already one MAC job open, after Kenni Burns’ firing this spring at Kent State. There are significant financial challenges both there and at Akron, which also could be in flux with Joe Moorhead entering Year 4 at 8-28. (He’d be owed about $650,000 if fired, which is significant.) There’s still a market for Moorhead as a college offensive coordinator, which could be the pivot if the Zips don’t get moving. (Perhaps the NFL, too.) Overall, this looks like a quieter year in the MAC.
Mountain West: The lack of a contract extension for Jay Norvell at Colorado State is a smoke signal that a decision is coming. He has just one year left on his deal and would be owed $1.5 million if fired before Dec. 1. He also wouldn’t have to pay any money to go elsewhere. Norvell has an administration that didn’t hire him and, despite solid improvement, there will be speculation over his future until something changes contractually. Colorado State went 8-5 last year and 6-1 in the Mountain West. Norvell is 16-21 in his three years.
Sun Belt: Two coaches will be watched closely here. Tim Beck is 14-12 at Coastal Carolina over two seasons, having reached bowls in each of them. He had the misfortune of replacing Jamey Chadwell, who averaged more than 10 wins over his final three seasons. Beck would be owed $1.5 million if Coastal fired him, and Coastal has both a new athletic director and president. Ricky Rahne at Old Dominion is 20-30 overall and still in search of his first winning season there. He has just one year remaining on his deal after this one, a sign that a decision on his future one way or the other is imminent. He’d be owed $600,000 if fired.
Pac-12: None.
Sports
Miami LB Hayes charged with vehicular homicide
Published
37 mins agoon
August 29, 2025By
admin
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ESPN News Services
Aug 29, 2025, 01:35 PM ET
Miami linebacker Adarius Hayes has been charged with three counts of vehicular homicide and one count of reckless driving with serious bodily injury following an investigation into a May crash that killed three people.
Hayes surrendered to police Friday morning in his hometown of Largo, Florida, officials said, and records show he was booked into the Pinellas County Jail. It was not immediately clear if he retained an attorney.
Miami said Hayes “has been indefinitely suspended from all athletic related activities per athletic department policy” in response to the charges. The Hurricanes declined further comment.
The three people who died as a result of the May 10 afternoon crash — a 78-year-old woman, plus two children ages 10 and 4 — were all in a Kia Soul that collided with a Dodge Durango being driven by Hayes, police said at the time.
The children were ejected from the vehicle, police said, and investigators later found that Hayes was “maneuvering aggressively through traffic shortly before the crash.” He was driving at 78.9 mph in a 40 mph zone at the time of the crash, police said.
Another passenger of the Kia had been hospitalized with serious injuries.
“The investigation concluded that Adarius Hayes’ egregious speed, aggressive and reckless lane changes, and complete disregard for surrounding traffic conditions demonstrated a willful and deliberate disregard for the safety of others, constituting reckless driving. These actions directly led to the tragic deaths of the three victims,” Largo police said in a statement Friday.
The Kia, police said, was “lawfully executing a left-hand turn” when Hayes’ vehicle “made a rapid and dangerous maneuver” and crashed into the car.
Hayes played in 12 games as a freshman for Miami last season, mostly on special teams. He was a four-star recruit coming out of Largo High School.
Largo is about 20 miles east of Tampa and about 15 miles north of St. Petersburg on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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David PurdumAug 29, 2025, 08:54 AM ET
Close- Joined ESPN in 2014
- Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008
The point spread on Saturday’s Texas-Ohio State showdown has been on the move all week, with the Longhorns becoming a favorite at some sportsbooks, including ESPN BET, as of Friday morning.
The Buckeyes opened as a 3-point favorite months ago, but sportsbooks have been reporting a steady stream of money on the Longhorns throughout the summer, causing the line to move toward Texas.
The consensus line was a pick ’em as of noon ET Friday, with ESPN BET and DraftKings listing Texas as a 1.5-point favorite.
Circa, a sportsbook known to cater to professional bettors, had seen enough interest on the Longhorns to move them to a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Derek Stevens, the owner of Circa, said on VSIN that a $550,000 bet on Texas preceded the move to Longhorns -1. The line had ticked back to pick ’em by early Friday at Circa.
“It seems like the public is moving the line,” Chris Bennett, sportsbook director at Circa, told ESPN. “We’ve seen a lot of interest in Texas, but not from the usual suspects, and by that I mean a subset of sharp customers we have a lot of history with.”
The Buckeyes have not been a home underdog since 2018 against Michigan and have been favored by less than three points at Ohio Stadium only once since 2012. If the line closes with Ohio State as the favorite, Texas would become the first team ranked No. 1 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 to be an underdog in its first game.
“The perception is that Texas is just more experienced than Ohio State,” said Ed Salmons, veteran football oddsmaker for the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. “Arch Manning is considered a much better quarterback than the Ohio State quarterback [Julian Sayin]. Both are such unknowns, no one really knows.”
Salmons said it became obvious over the summer that the betting public was supporting Texas and that, once the line dropped from the opening number of Ohio State -3, it had the potential to move all the way to the Longhorns being the favorite.
“The public right now likes Texas, but we’ll see the day of the game,” Salmons said. “Sometimes you think that, and then all of a sudden you’ll see these big Ohio State bets. It’s a game we’re expecting a ton of handle on.”
The bulk of the betting action, both on the moneyline and spread, was on Texas at Caesars Sportsbook as well, but some of the bigger bettors had not weighed in on the marquee matchup of Week 1.
“There has not been a lot of wise guy action thus far,” said Joey Feazel, lead football trader for Caesars Sportsbook. “I believe that says more to the true variation of this game and not knowing exactly what you are going to get from either side of the ball. I expect we will see some action closer to game time.”
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