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Tage Thompson is that create-a-player gamers would dream about only to discover their fantasy became a real-life NHL forward. He is that person who in a single discussion can make skills coaches go from sounding like trained professionals to full-on fans in a matter of minutes. Words such as “flawless” and “perfect” are used to describe him while one of those coaches says, “He was built into being a hockey player.”

What he can do with a puck leads Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy to gladly declare he is “a unicorn,” makes Anaheim Ducks forward Troy Terry wax about how he is such a testament to patience, and prompts Tampa Bay Lightning prospect forward Jack Finley to be among the many who say that he has a chance to change the narrative for future generations.

All of this is to say there is already a mythos around Thompson. He is spoken about in these hyperbolic ways that are typically reserved for urban legends. The difference between Thompson and urban legends is that the Buffalo Sabres forward is fact — whereas the other is fiction. It’s just that Thompson’s exploits feel like fiction because of how everyone else gushes over them.

People act as if they have never seen anyone quite like Thompson before. And they’re right.

The 25-year-old center is on pace to finish with 50 goals and 103 points, which would give him one of the greatest individual seasons in Sabres history. But there is an underlying context that adds to what Thompson is doing — and could potentially achieve — this season.

At 6-foot-7, Thompson has a chance to make NHL history by becoming the tallest player to ever score 50 goals and/or finish with 100 points in a season, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Through March 20, Thompson scored 42 goals and 87 points through 69 games, which already makes him the tallest player to ever score 40 goals and record 80 points in a season.

Prior to Thompson, former Chicago Blackhawks forward Eric Daze held the distinction of being the tallest player in NHL history with the most points in a season. Daze, who is 6-6, scored 38 goals and 70 points in 80 games during the 2001-02 season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Six feet, 7 inches tall. Think about that. Picture someone putting DeForest Buckner, Luka Doncic or Aaron Judge — all of whom are 6-7 — on skates.

“It’s surprising, to be honest with you,” retired NHL forward Jason Arnott said upon hearing that Thompson could be the tallest to notch a 50-100 season. “There have been some really good players that were tall. It’s amazing. Especially with the speed of the game. Kudos to him and for being such a great skater at that size. That’s crazy.”

What is it about Thompson that has allowed him to be in a position to achieve things that have never been done before? Especially in a league in which front offices value size with the caveat that too much size could plausibly present too many challenges?

“My dad is a scout, and growing up, I was always sitting in on conversations with him and other scouts,” said Finley, the Lightning prospect, who is 6-6. “He told me when he would watch a game, his first reaction would be to see if there was a big player that he could watch. If there was a big guy who even had some skill, he was automatically drawn to him. That is the way it has been for years.”

PERHAPS THE STARTING point for any conversation about Thompson’s place within the game is with the context of those who came before him. There have been several players between 6-2 and 6-4 who were among the most prolific forwards to ever play the game.

Many of them also had longevity. There have been 159 forwards with a listed height of 6-4 who have played in the NHL, according to league records. It’s a list that includes Hall of Fame inductees such as Dave Andreychuk, Mario Lemieux and Eric Lindros, with Joe Thornton possibly next. Then there’s this current generation of players such as Mikko Rantanen and Brady Tkachuk.

Fifteen of them have scored more than 500 career points, while another 39 have played more than 500 games.

Compare that to the 104 forwards all time who were 6-5 or taller. The shortest members include players such as Patrik Laine, Keith Primeau, Mats Sundin and Blake Wheeler, with the tallest being John Scott, who is 6-8. Only six of those players have scored more than 500 points and all of them were 6-5. In terms of games played, there are 21 who have played more than 500 games, with five of those forwards being taller than 6-6.

Sundin is the only forward who is at least 6-5 to score 1,000 points. He’s one of three forwards that height — along with Arnott and Wheeler — to score more than 900 points.

What is it about that extra inch that makes all the difference? Why have 6-4 forwards been so much more prolific and had longer careers?

The answers vary — though many admit there might not be a perfect explanation.

“There are not as many guys at 6-5 because it’s tall for a hockey player,” Primeau said. “I always felt a little too long. It was hard to defend against smaller guys in the corner, quicker guys in the end zones. I just felt 6-3 could move quickly because those 2 inches made a huge difference.”

“Once you get to those players who are 6-5, 6-6 and 6-7, even though it seems like such a small difference, the effect on the players is different,” Finley said. “The skating, the coordination. When a scout watches a player, the chances of a 6-6 forward being good in the NHL are slim. For a guy who is 6-5, 6-6 and 6-7, there are guys who are 6-4 and they can do things I can’t because of the way their body is built.”

Said Tara McKay, a power skating coach for Gary Roberts High Performance Training: “Is it because they’re out of hockey early because they cannot play at the pace? Hockey is a sport in which they identify guys so early. … A lot of the successful players now are these strong little tank guys. You cannot really be 6-5, strong and 18 [years old]. I have not seen one look like that with a hockey build at 18.”

SO HOW DOES one explain Thompson? What is it exactly that Thompson is doing that could see him become only the third player 6-5 or taller to score 100 points in a season? (Pete Mahvolich had two 100-point seasons in his career; Sundin had one.)

Here’s the thing about power skating and skills coaches. They live for nuance. And between McKay and Kyle Nishizaki, they can touch on a number of items that they believe have allowed Thompson to be in this position.

Nishizaki is the director of Perfect Skating, a program founded by Colorado Avalanche skills coach Shawn Allard that has worked with hundreds of NHL players.

“First thing is, he’s got pretty good ankle mobility and can get his knee in front of his toe, and that puts him in the right spot with his skate blade,” Nishizaki said. “He’s blessed with long limbs and levers, and is able to produce a lot of force in every push with his length along with being a big, strong guy as well. Those are two things right off the hop that will help him and allow him to be a pretty decent mover for somebody of that size.”

Another point Nishizaki raised about Thompson was how his skating works within the context of being a forward versus a defenseman. Nishizaki said defensemen skate, but there are times when they are able to conserve energy. Forwards, however, can’t conserve energy, because if they do, then there is a chance a mistake is going in the back of the net.

That’s one more detail that could get lost about Thompson. It’s not just the skating — it’s that he never stops moving, and it’s one of the reasons he consistently appears to be in a position to score no matter where he’s at on the ice.

McKay said Thompson’s skating is “pretty flawless,” while noting she cannot believe how strong of a skater he is at that height. She said Thompson has all the traits commonly associated with a player with his length such as a big shot, reach, size and strength. Yet what commonly hurts taller players is the fact they are not the strongest skaters, she said.

She said all skaters, especially tall ones, need to have strong core stability. McKay referenced the work he did with one of her clients, Los Angeles Kings prospect center Quinton Byfield, who is 6-5. In Byfield’s draft year, they worked together to fix his skating and concentrate on his posture.

Some younger skaters with size like Byfield struggle with details such as being bent over in their stance. Or they have a stride that is a bit too long. McKay said those bigger and taller skaters can get away with it at the junior level because they have an advantage over their competition.

But when they turn pro, they’re going against older and stronger competitors who are far more technically sound. McKay said that instability means it’s easier for those bigger skaters to lose the puck, which is something they worked with Byfield on.

McKay said Thompson’s skating has the right amount of length in his stride and he is not bent over. Furthermore, she said Thompson has “excellent agility,” which benefits him in a number of ways throughout the course of a game.

“I find it amazing. I don’t know his backstory,” McKay said. “But something that came to my mind was: ‘How did they build this guy into being able to do this?'”

MANY TALLER PLAYERS either grow up being bigger than their peers from the beginning, or they go through a sudden growth spurt that changes everything — particularly the expectations about what they could accomplish with their newfound height.

Seattle Kraken defenseman Jamie Oleksiak, who is 6-7, said he was always the tallest kid on his team at 6-2, but he grew another 5 inches when he was around 17. New York Islanders forward Pierre Engvall, who is 6-5, said he grew from being the shortest person in his class to almost being the tallest in one summer. Primeau said he was 5-10 and skinny when he was a teenager, but he grew to being 6-3 within six months before ultimately playing at 6-5 in his career.

Being that tall usually means those players either get moved to defense or goaltending, or they started out there. Alternatively, it means they have to play as a big, bruising power forward who makes size their No. 1 attribute.

Initially, Brent Thompson had the older of his two sons, Tage, play as a defenseman. It makes sense given Brent was a defenseman who played more than 100 games in the NHL while spending most of his professional career in the AHL.

“As a child, I tried to convince him to play defense, and actually, he had one game where he played goalie,” Brent said. “The only shot he faced went in, and that was a quick denial on the goaltending side. He liked having the puck on his stick. I tried to convince him, but it didn’t fit.”

Brent said Tage was an undersized player for most of his life. Or rather, it was that way until he was 16 or 17 when he started to grow, with Brent saying his oldest son was still growing as of last season.

The Ducks’ Terry played one season with Thompson when they were teammates at the United States National Team Development Program, USA Hockey’s program to develop what it considers to be the best U-17 and U-18 talents in the nation. Terry saw the start of that growth firsthand.

“I think when I played with him, he had just grown within the last year. It was like a crazy amount,” Terry said. “Like, 7 or 8 inches. He was pretty lanky, and when you were on the ice with him, you could tell his skill and his hands were great. You could just tell, and he would know better than me, but it was like his body hadn’t caught up yet or his mind hadn’t caught up yet. All of his hockey ability was there — you just knew he was going to be a stud. He just needed to figure out how to play at 6-foot-7 as opposed to being 6 feet because he grew that much.”

Said McAvoy, who also was part of the NTDP at that time: “Tommer is a unicorn, and I knew right away, we all did, that he was really special. He had unbelievable hands for his size, shots and you could see he had it when he was 17. He just took a while. He was a late bloomer. … on our U-18 team, he was our fifth-line guy.”

Uh, sorry, Charlie. Did you just say that a future first-round draft pick who is on pace for a 50-goal, 100-point season was on the fifth line?

“I know, it’s funny because it’s like, ‘Holy cow, this guy’s literally one of the best players in the NHL,'” McAvoy smiled. “He probably played five minutes at the [U-18 World Junior Championships] combined. He just took it like a champ and was a valuable part of the team.”

For those wondering who else was on the NTDP roster at the same time as Thompson? Try Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, Florida Panthers duo Matthew Tkachuk and Colin White, Columbus Blue Jackets forward Jack Roslovic, Arizona Coyotes forward Christian Fischer, Sabres forward Jordan Greenway, San Jose Sharks forward Luke Kunin and Terry.

And that’s not even including cameos from Coyotes winger Clayton Keller, who was a year younger but was called up to the U-18s, or even Kraken winger Ryan Donato, who had a four-game run.

Brent said his son might have been 6 feet when he arrived at the NTDP to play one season before going to college. Tage Thompson played two seasons at the University of Connecticut. UConn’s media guide from Thompson’s freshman year listed him at 6-4, and it stated he was 6-5 as a sophomore.

Even now, his height varies depending upon the source. Some websites list him at 6-6; whereas others have him at 6-7.

“To hear his last height, I heard it was 6-6, but he also grew a little more,” Brent said.

SO THAT EXPLAINS the height. What about Thompson’s skill?

Being the son of a former professional hockey player who is also the head coach of the Islanders’ AHL affiliate meant Thompson received a different level of tutelage. Brent said his son was always “a high-level skill” player growing up.

Where Thompson excelled was with his hands, his release and his shot — attributes that continue to serve him to this day. But those skills were developed because he was at one point a small player who did not have the advantage of using his size to beat people. So that meant he had to use skills to create and find space while also using them to score goals.

“I am thinking that was youth hockey from 12 to 15 when you would see him beat a guy once and toe drag him again,” Brent said. “Was it frustrating? Yeah, from a coaching standpoint. From a parent standpoint, it was impressive to see how he developed. … Hockey is something he loved and it was nice to see how he loved it.”

There are stories from Tage Thompson’s youngest years that add to the mythos.

Brent imagines his son was around toddler age when he started taking a miniature stick with him at every turn. There was a night at dinner when Thompson took a butter knife and began stickhandling a Cheerio with the knife like it was a hockey stick at the dinner table.

From there, the cute acts of a child turned into an obsession. When he was old enough, the routine was as follows: Wake up. Go to school. Come home and do homework. Then, shoot pucks or work on stickhandling until it’s either time to eat or it’s time to go to bed.

Brent said the foundation for both of his sons were the countless days they spent poring over the technical details of balance and skating. They worked on balance position, power skating, stride extension and edgework.

“I didn’t let them handle a puck,” Brent recalled. “They had a whole routine at practice or it was in our night sessions. … That built the foundation from there to work on their hands, stickhandling drills, passing drills, shooting drills. We would do a routine and we built on that to talk about the different ways to get the puck off the stick quickly. But the progress and ability to do it progressed each year.”

Brent was only part of that development. Thompson and his brother, Tyce, who plays in the New Jersey Devils‘ organization, also learned from Eric Boguniecki, who was an assistant with Brent in the AHL in Bridgeport along with Islanders skills coach Bernie Cassell.

Yes, Tage Thompson had the natural ability, drive and skills that eventually joined forces with a 6-7 physique that has made him a star. But how did Brent know that the skills he was teaching his sons would be the ones that would have a future place in the NHL?

“We all realized it early and saw the level of skill,” Brent said. “I think to play in today’s game, you have to be able to skate. That was the biggest thing in my brain. You need to be able to skate, control a puck and make a play. Those were things we worked on growing up.”

ASKING NHL PLAYERS about Tage Thompson generates a lot of opinions about what he’s doing and what makes him so unique.

For example, what’s the difference between when McAvoy played against him in practice at the NTDP versus now in the NHL?

“Well, he’s even more dynamic now than he was then!” McAvoy said. “His hands are better now, his shot is better now. Everything is better now. When guys are that long, it’s their reach. They don’t need more space to get [a shot] off because that puck is so far out.”

Or what is it like to be a fellow 6-7 NHL player and see what Thompson is doing?

“Every goal he scores is like a highlight-reel goal,” Oleksiak said with a big grin. “It’s tempting. I watch him and I go, ‘Why can’t I do stuff like that?’ But I think it’s for the best that I don’t try to overdo it.”

What are some of the aspects that make Thompson so difficult to deal with?

“He has an unbelievable ability to toe drag the puck and drag it into his body and releases it from different angles,” Maple Leafs defenseman Mark Giordano said. “His shot, he can get it off from everywhere. But his shot is extremely heavy, too. I think it’s because he’s so big and uses all that whip in his stick.”

And how is it to take on a player like Thompson as a defensive assignment versus someone who has more conventional size?

“There is a difference as far as they have that reach,” Bruins center and five-time Selke Award winner Patrice Bergeron said. “They can protect that puck, and it is harder to get on the inside of them. I think you gotta make sure you keep them to the outside as possible and make sure you have good sticks. Stickwork is the most important part for me against guys like that. They want to make plays and have good speed too.”

Better yet: What’s it like to know someone as big and tall as Thompson has the sort of skill that the game has seen from other young players like — for example — Ducks forward Trevor Zegras?

“It’s funny. Tage is from around where I’m from and where I grew up in Bedford, New York,” Zegras said. “He lived in Bridgeport where his dad coached. I’ve been on the ice with him a couple times throughout the years. … That team in Buffalo is really fast and really skilled, and I feel like he’s kind of the leader of that offense. It’s cool to see and I am definitely not surprised in the slightest to see it.”

Even though Finley is not in the NHL yet, he suggested that Thompson’s success opens the door for bigger players. While Finley admitted he is not that type of player, he has learned a lot from watching Thompson when it comes to how he can protect the puck, as well as being patient, whenever he is on the puck.

“I wish he was around 10 years earlier and I could have modeled my game after him,” Finley said.

Primeau said the game’s contemporary nature means that players — regardless of their height — have all made skill a priority. He said the days of the mixed emotions of seeing a 6-7 player score a goal but not get into a fight are over.

Arnott noted how that shift toward a more skill-based game means bigger players have a better chance to not be pigeonholed as power forwards.

“Everyone looks at hockey as this big, strong physical game,” Arnott said. “When you are a bigger guy, you are looked upon to throw around your weight and use your big body to crash and bang. But you also have to be able to skate. If you can’t skate, then I don’t think it matters how big you are.”

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College football FPI release: The numbers behind the top teams, best matchups and championship odds

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June 3, 2025

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College football FPI release: The numbers behind the top teams, best matchups and championship odds

  • Neil PaineJun 3, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.

There’s no going back now. The College Football Playoff’s expanded 12-team format made its debut last season, reshaping the postseason as we knew it and showing just how brutal the path to a national championship can be. Add in a flurry of conference realignments (with the grueling travel schedules they created), the ever-increasing influence of the transfer portal and what might be the dawn of an entirely new financial model underpinning the sport, and college football could be changing faster — and more dramatically — than at any point in its history.

As part of our efforts to keep track of these seismic changes, we are relaunching our Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections for the 2025 season this week. Just to refresh our memories, the FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.

The preseason forecast features plenty of familiar teams at the top, but also plenty of candidates to crash the playoff party. Let’s begin our tour of the data by looking at the teams most likely to win the 2025 championship.

The top of the list is dominated by SEC teams — 11 of the top 19 hail from the conference, including the two most likely champions in Texas and Georgia (and three of the top four, if you include Alabama).

A year after Ohio State and the Big Ten won the first 12-team playoff title — with only three SEC squads making the field — the FPI model expects a nation-high 4.6 playoff teams to hail from the conference (nearly twice as many from any other) with a 61% chance that the SEC produces the eventual champion.

SEC and Big Ten remain on top

If not an SEC team, then the championship will probably go to another familiar power conference program, with a trio of Big Ten teams — Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon — checking in next on the odds list, a year after each went to the CFP quarterfinals (or beyond). A high share of returning production could also have coach Dabo Swinney and Clemson representing the ACC in the playoff again — perhaps making it past the the first round this time.

And if we’re looking for somewhat refreshed entries after down seasons, Auburn, Michigan and Oklahoma are all among the 17 most likely champions after each finished outside the top 25 in the FPI last season. All three made major moves in the offseason to spark their surges: Auburn brought in a top-10 transfer class headlined by former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold; Michigan brought in a big recruiting class and a few top transfers; and Oklahoma revamped its offensive core, with prized quarterback John Mateer at the helm — plus its returning production otherwise — helping vault the Sooners back into the national picture.

Playoff odds for the Group of 5

As always, the Group of 5 is also an important part of the playoff puzzle, in no small part because of its guaranteed spot in the bracket (reserved for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion). Here are the non-power conference teams with the highest chance to make the playoff in the FPI model.

Even after losing record-setting running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos remain the most likely Group of 5 team to make the playoff — though Tulane (despite losing quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes) and UNLV (coming off an 11-win season, though quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has moved on) aren’t far behind. With several contenders bunched together and no clear juggernaut, the G5 race for a playoff spot is something to keep a close eye on — including its ripple effects on the rest of the bracket.

Next, let’s look at the projected top units on each side of the ball in 2025, according to the FPI.

If we want another illustration of how dominant the best teams are, the top four projected offensive teams by the FPI — Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State — are also the top four projected defensive teams, with Alabama and Texas rising 10 spots apiece from 2024 on the offensive side.

That kind of balance on both sides of the ball is what separates this year’s top contenders from the pack, especially in a postseason format that requires versatility over three or four high-stakes playoff games. The rest of the top 20 on both sides also contain some of the biggest offseason movers in those unit rankings — such as Oregon (up 11 spots on defense), Florida (up 27 spots on offense), Clemson (up 14 spots on defense), South Carolina (up 24 spots on offense) and Texas A&M and Auburn (who are up double-digit spots on both sides).

Biggest risers and fallers

Speaking of those offseason changes, let’s look at the programs that have gained (or lost) the most ground overall in the FPI entering 2025.

FAU is projected to improve by at least 25 ranking slots on offense, defense and special teams after adding quite a few transfers — including ex-Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp — ahead of coach Zach Kittley’s first season in Boca Raton. Among power conference teams, Florida State is looking to bounce back from last season’s nightmare with the help of a great offseason in the portal, headlined by the addition of former USC wide receiver Duce Robinson, while ACC rival, Stanford, has the nation’s 13th-highest share of production returning for 2025.

At the other end, Army has lost roughly half of its production from last season’s impressive 12-2 team, including top rusher Kanye Udoh and sack leader Elo Modozie; the FPI predicts regression will hit the Knights hard.

And in terms of power teams who had competitive FPI ratings a year ago, Louisville is projected to drop from No. 12 to 41 after bidding farewell to quarterback Tyler Shough, wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks, starting offensive tackle Monroe Mills, sack leader Ashton Gillotte and each of its three leading defensive backs in interceptions. Similarly, Colorado sustained heavy offseason losses, and regression might also come for Indiana and Iowa State after a pair of outstanding 11-win seasons.

(Where did the top transfer portal teams land on the most improved list? In addition to FSU and Auburn, Nebraska is up 13 spots to No. 25, Texas Tech rose nine spots to No. 35 and Texas A&M was up seven slots to No. 8. But keep an eye on Ole Miss, which was among the more active portal teams but fell eight spots in the FPI rankings anyway without quarterback Jaxson Dart.)

Best matchups in 2025?

Finally, let’s close by circling the biggest matchups of the 2025 season on our college football calendars. According to the FPI’s projected ratings for both teams, these are the most anticipated games of the season — matchups in which each squad ranks highly, helping to create a high combined matchup quality on ESPN Analytics’ 0-100 scale:

We’ll get one of the best games of the season practically right away, with Week 1 providing Texas-Ohio State — a battle of top-four preseason FPI teams — on Saturday, Aug. 30. That same day, we’ll also get LSU-Clemson, and the next day, we’ll watch Notre Dame travel to Miami to face the Hurricanes in a top-10 FPI matchup.

That sets the tone for a regular season that will feature at least one matchup rated 90 or higher in the FPI matchup quality metric almost every week. But the best week by that metric — with three games rated 90 or higher and five rated 85 or higher — is Week 14, with Ohio State-Michigan, Auburn-Alabama and all of the other usual late-season rivalry games. In addition, three other weeks — Week 5, Week 7 and Week 10 — will carry five games each with a matchup rating of 85 or higher.

That’s a loaded calendar, and it reflects how the meaning of each college football Saturday is changing. Under the old system, one bad week could doom a contender. Now, teams can afford a stumble … but the trade-off is that they also need to prove themselves over more games against top-tier teams.

Regular-season showdowns still matter, too — especially for seeding, byes and home-field advantage. But there’s also more room for redemption, which we saw embodied by both championship game combatant’s last season. And through it all, the FPI gives us a roadmap to help navigate what’s shaping up to be another wild and transformative season of college football.

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Ingram, Newton, RG3, Suh on college HOF ballot

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June 3, 2025

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Ingram, Newton, RG3, Suh on college HOF ballot

  • Associated Press

Jun 2, 2025, 01:27 PM ET

Heisman Trophy winners Mark Ingram, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III and former AP National Player of the Year Ndamukong Suh are on the ballot for the 2026 College Football Hall of Fame class.

The National Football Foundation released the ballot Monday for the class that will be announced in January. It includes 79 players and nine coaches from the Football Bowl Subdivision and 100 players and 35 coaches from lower levels.

Ingram became Alabama’s first Heisman winner in 2009 after running for 1,658 yards and 20 touchdowns. Newton in 2010 was just the third player in FBS history with 20 passing and 20 rushing touchdowns. Griffin in 2011 led the nation in points responsible for and ranked second in total offense.

Suh was a force for Nebraska in 2009 and became the first defensive lineman in 15 seasons to be named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. He finished fourth in voting but was honored as the nation’s top player by The Associated Press.

Among other players on the ballot are Iowa’s Brad Banks, Colorado’s Eric Bieniemy, Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant, Penn State’s Ki-Jana Carter, Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald, Syracuse’s Marvin Harrison, Oklahoma’s Josh Heupel, Ohio State’s James Laurinaitis, Washington State’s Ryan Leaf, California’s Marshawn Lynch, Illinois’ Simeon Rice and Florida State’s Peter Warrick.

Among coaches on the ballot are Larry Coker, Gary Patterson and Chris Petersen.

Coker led the Canes to consecutive national championship games and won the 2002 Rose Bowl to become the first rookie head coach to lead his team to a title since 1948. Patterson is TCU’s all-time wins leader who led the Horned Frogs to six AP top 10 final rankings. Petersen is Boise State’s all-time wins leader who led the Broncos to two undefeated seasons and led Washington to the 2016 College Football Playoff.

The NFF also announced an adjustment to the eligibility criteria for coaches to be considered for induction. The minimum career winning percentage required for coaching eligibility will go from .600 to .595 beginning in 2027.

The change would make Mike Leach eligible. Leach, who died in 2022, had a .596 winning percentage with a 158-107 record over 21 seasons at Texas Tech, Washington State and Mississippi State.

Leach was known for his innovative wide-open offenses and his knack for pulling upsets. He won 18 games against Top 25 opponents when his team was unranked.

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Reacting to the preseason FPI rankings: Who’s overvalued, who’s undervalued

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June 3, 2025

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Reacting to the preseason FPI rankings: Who's overvalued, who's undervalued

ESPN has released its 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, and our college football reporters are here to break them down.

The ratings, for the uninitiated, include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title and of course, its probability to make the expanded 12-team playoff and win the national championship.

The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.

You can read Neil Paine’s takeaways here and get our staff’s analysis below.

Which team is FPI undervaluing?

Paolo Uggetti: Even though Kenny Dillingham said at Big 12 spring meetings recently that being considered one of the conference’s favorites after being picked to finish last in 2024 is “less fun,” I still think FPI is slightly undervaluing the Sun Devils at No. 24. Sure, they lost star running back Cam Skattebo to the NFL draft, but they also return a quarterback in Sam Leavitt (2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns last year) who could be a Heisman contender, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns) and defensive back Xavion Alford, among several other starters and stalwarts of last year’s Cinderella season. Dillingham won’t flinch at now being considered a favorite to win the conference and I imagine he’ll have ASU with plenty of fire and motivation come kickoff. It would not shock me to see them make another playoff run.

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Kenny Dillingham: ASU facing a different type of adversity this year

Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham explains the differences his team is facing this season after coming off a Big 12 title last season.

Mark Schlabach: I think you can argue that Clemson is one of the two best teams in the FBS entering the season (along with Penn State), and it’s certainly one of the best 10, so it’s surprising to see them in at No. 11. In our colleague Jordan Reid’s initial 2026 NFL mock draft, he had four Tigers going in the first round, including quarterback Cade Klubnik at No. 1. Three seasons ago, Clemson fans wondered whether Klubnik was the right guy for the job, now he’s considered one of the most polished passers in the sport, after throwing for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and six interceptions last season. The Tigers have the best defensive line in the FBS, and Reid had tackle Peter Woods and edge rusher T.J. Parker going in the top 10, as well. The Tigers open the season against LSU at home and play at South Carolina in the finale, but I can’t see many ACC teams beating them.

Bill Connelly: There are quite a few non-SEC teams we could choose from here, but I’m going to go with No. 39 Iowa. The Hawkeyes have more to replace on defense than usual, but a) I can’t even pretend like they’ll have anything other than a top-10 or top-15 defense until proven otherwise, and b) the offense improved significantly last year (albeit from horrific to merely mediocre) and might have made a lovely QB upgrade by bringing in South Dakota State’s Mark Gronowski. Losing running back Kaleb Johnson hurts, but this very much feels like a top-25-level team to me, one I trust quite a bit more than quite a few of the teams directly ahead of the Hawkeyes in FPI.

Jake Trotter: Indiana did graduate quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who had a fabulous one season for the Hoosiers while propelling them to the playoff and the first 10-win season in school history. Indiana, however, returns several key players from last year’s squad, including All-Big Ten receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. The Hoosiers also added Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who brought plenty of experience (19 career starts) with him to Bloomington. Curt Cignetti has already proved he can coach. And with no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule, it wouldn’t be completely stunning if Indiana knocks on the door of playoff contention once again.

Which team is FPI overvaluing?

Trotter: So we’re doing this again, huh? Every preseason, Texas A&M gets top-10 hype. Every season, the Aggies fail to deliver on it. Texas A&M has reached double-digit wins just once this century (the Johnny Football year in 2012). And yet, FPI is giving them the benefit of doubt again as the No. 8-ranked team. Mike Elko is a terrific coach and the Aggies, as always, have talent, including intriguing dual-threat sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed. But the Aggies ranked 51st last year in offensive EPA and 47th in defensive EPA. That hardly screams top 10 team. What’s really there to suggest the Aggies will be any different than what they’ve been?

Connelly: We can’t say for sure that FPI is overvaluing Texas because if Arch Manning lives up to his hype, the Longhorns really might be the best team in the country. However, if he’s merely very good instead of great, then holes elsewhere might become problematic. This is, after all, a team that lost four offensive line starters, its top four defensive linemen and two of the best DBs in the country in Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian has obviously recruited well, the replacements for those lost linemen could be excellent, and Texas will be very good regardless. But they’re only No. 1 if Arch is an All-American. No pressure.

Uggetti: I’m having a hard time with Miami all the way up at No. 9. I can see the case for it: They have a solid core of players returning throughout the roster and head coach Mario Cristobal and his staff were transfer portal merchants this offseason, bringing in several offensive weapons such as wideouts CJ Daniels (LSU), Keelan Marion (BYU) and Tony Johnson (Cincinnati) as well as some much needed help in the secondary via cornerback Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). Of course, the crux of the hype surrounding the Hurricanes hinges on their biggest portal addition, quarterback Carson Beck. After losing Cameron Ward to the draft, Cristobal & Co. are banking on Beck (who is coming off surgery for a torn UCL in his right elbow) to be the guy who was supposed to lead Georgia to a national title. Count me among the skeptics.

Schlabach: Given what transpired at Tennessee in the spring, I’m not sure the Volunteers are a top-25 team heading into the season, let alone one that should be ranked No. 10. I didn’t have the Volunteers ranked in my latest Way-Too-Early Top 25. I could see the Vols going one of two ways after quarterback Nico Iamaleava up and left for UCLA following an NIL dispute: The Vols are going to be better off with quarterback Joey Aguilar and his teammates will rally around him, or Augilar’s leap from Appalachian State to the SEC is too high. The Vols were already facing an uphill climb on offense, in my opinion, after SEC leading rusher Dylan Sampson departed, along with three of the team’s top receivers.

Which power conference team outside the FPI top 25 can make a run?

Trotter: Texas Tech landed the nation’s top transfer portal class, beefing up the trenches on both sides of the ball to a team that went 8-5 last season. With 24 career starts behind him, quarterback Behren Morton should be even better after throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns last year. If the portal additions playing up front defensively, combined with the arrival of new defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, can bolster a unit that ranked just 108th in EPA last year, the Red Raiders could threaten for a conference title and playoff berth in what figures to be another wide-open Big 12.

Connelly: I would say that half the Big 12 is capable of playing at a top-15 or top-20 level and making a conference title (and, therefore, CFP) run, but I’m particularly intrigued by the duo of No. 32 TCU and No. 33 Baylor. They both won six of their last seven to end the season, and they both return stellar quarterbacks in Josh Hoover (TCU) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor). I feel like I trust TCU’s returning personnel more, but Baylor’s Dave Aranda was extremely active in the transfer portal, too. The Revivalry — hey, it’s a better name than Bluebonnet Battle — is on October 18, and the winner will probably head into November as a serious Big 12 contender.

Uggetti: Washington (No. 27) had a disappointing 6-7 season in its first year in the Big 12 under new coach Jedd Fisch. The Huskies finished ninth in the conference and seem to have quietly stumbled into the shadow of their more successful Pacific Northwest neighbor, Oregon. But Fisch, like he showed at Arizona, can build a successful team over time. Washington brought in a top-25 recruiting class this past year and added some much-needed defensive reinforcements in the portal. Snagging four-star wide receiver Johntay Cook II from Texas will be a boon for expected starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. who, after showing some flashes last season, could be primed for a breakout.

Which team’s odd ranking will be proven correct by the end of the season?

Schlabach: There’s a smorgasbord of “odd” rankings to select from. I think you can argue that No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 14 Auburn, No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 19 USC are probably ranked too high, and No. 12 LSU, No. 29 BYU, No. 31 Indiana and No. 35 Texas Tech are too low. LSU might have the SEC’s best quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, and coach Brian Kelly struck gold in the transfer portal, landing defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). But LSU’s schedule is difficult, with road games at Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, and I’m not sure they’ll be better than 9-3, which would put them right about No. 12.

Uggetti: I’ll take one of the teams Mark mentioned and focus on USC. At first glance, I was also surprised that FPI has them all the way up to No. 19 given the Trojans are coming off a disappointing 7-6 debut season in the Big 10. But the Trojans have made several strides this offseason, not just as a program by hiring general manager Chad Bowden from USC, but also as a team to put themselves in position to surprise in 2025. The defense continues to use the portal to add key talent such as defensive tackles Jamaal Jarrett (Georgia) and Keeshawn Silver (Kentucky). The most exciting player on the team, however, may be incoming freshman defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart, who is likely to make an impact right away. A lot of the Trojans’ hopes this season are riding on quarterback Jayden Maiava and how he fares in his first full season as a starter. He finished with 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and a second year in Lincoln Riley’s offense should serve him well. USC’s schedule starts off slow, but the true test of the Trojans’ potential will be on the back end when they face a stretch of Illinois, Michigan and Notre Dame before finishing the season with Oregon, Iowa and UCLA.

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