Tage Thompson could do something that has never been done in NHL history
Tage Thompson is that create-a-player gamers would dream about only to discover their fantasy became a real-life NHL forward. He is that person who in a single discussion can make skills coaches go from sounding like trained professionals to full-on fans in a matter of minutes. Words such as “flawless” and “perfect” are used to describe him while one of those coaches says, “He was built into being a hockey player.”
What he can do with a puck leads Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy to gladly declare he is “a unicorn,” makes Anaheim Ducks forward Troy Terry wax about how he is such a testament to patience, and prompts Tampa Bay Lightning prospect forward Jack Finley to be among the many who say that he has a chance to change the narrative for future generations.
All of this is to say there is already a mythos around Thompson. He is spoken about in these hyperbolic ways that are typically reserved for urban legends. The difference between Thompson and urban legends is that the Buffalo Sabres forward is fact — whereas the other is fiction. It’s just that Thompson’s exploits feel like fiction because of how everyone else gushes over them.
People act as if they have never seen anyone quite like Thompson before. And they’re right.
The 25-year-old center is on pace to finish with 50 goals and 103 points, which would give him one of the greatest individual seasons in Sabres history. But there is an underlying context that adds to what Thompson is doing — and could potentially achieve — this season.
At 6-foot-7, Thompson has a chance to make NHL history by becoming the tallest player to ever score 50 goals and/or finish with 100 points in a season, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Through March 20, Thompson scored 42 goals and 87 points through 69 games, which already makes him the tallest player to ever score 40 goals and record 80 points in a season.
Prior to Thompson, former Chicago Blackhawks forward Eric Daze held the distinction of being the tallest player in NHL history with the most points in a season. Daze, who is 6-6, scored 38 goals and 70 points in 80 games during the 2001-02 season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Six feet, 7 inches tall. Think about that. Picture someone putting DeForest Buckner, Luka Doncic or Aaron Judge — all of whom are 6-7 — on skates.
“It’s surprising, to be honest with you,” retired NHL forward Jason Arnott said upon hearing that Thompson could be the tallest to notch a 50-100 season. “There have been some really good players that were tall. It’s amazing. Especially with the speed of the game. Kudos to him and for being such a great skater at that size. That’s crazy.”
What is it about Thompson that has allowed him to be in a position to achieve things that have never been done before? Especially in a league in which front offices value size with the caveat that too much size could plausibly present too many challenges?
“My dad is a scout, and growing up, I was always sitting in on conversations with him and other scouts,” said Finley, the Lightning prospect, who is 6-6. “He told me when he would watch a game, his first reaction would be to see if there was a big player that he could watch. If there was a big guy who even had some skill, he was automatically drawn to him. That is the way it has been for years.”
PERHAPS THE STARTING point for any conversation about Thompson’s place within the game is with the context of those who came before him. There have been several players between 6-2 and 6-4 who were among the most prolific forwards to ever play the game.
Many of them also had longevity. There have been 159 forwards with a listed height of 6-4 who have played in the NHL, according to league records. It’s a list that includes Hall of Fame inductees such as Dave Andreychuk, Mario Lemieux and Eric Lindros, with Joe Thornton possibly next. Then there’s this current generation of players such as Mikko Rantanen and Brady Tkachuk.
Fifteen of them have scored more than 500 career points, while another 39 have played more than 500 games.
Compare that to the 104 forwards all time who were 6-5 or taller. The shortest members include players such as Patrik Laine, Keith Primeau, Mats Sundin and Blake Wheeler, with the tallest being John Scott, who is 6-8. Only six of those players have scored more than 500 points and all of them were 6-5. In terms of games played, there are 21 who have played more than 500 games, with five of those forwards being taller than 6-6.
Sundin is the only forward who is at least 6-5 to score 1,000 points. He’s one of three forwards that height — along with Arnott and Wheeler — to score more than 900 points.
What is it about that extra inch that makes all the difference? Why have 6-4 forwards been so much more prolific and had longer careers?
The answers vary — though many admit there might not be a perfect explanation.
“There are not as many guys at 6-5 because it’s tall for a hockey player,” Primeau said. “I always felt a little too long. It was hard to defend against smaller guys in the corner, quicker guys in the end zones. I just felt 6-3 could move quickly because those 2 inches made a huge difference.”
“Once you get to those players who are 6-5, 6-6 and 6-7, even though it seems like such a small difference, the effect on the players is different,” Finley said. “The skating, the coordination. When a scout watches a player, the chances of a 6-6 forward being good in the NHL are slim. For a guy who is 6-5, 6-6 and 6-7, there are guys who are 6-4 and they can do things I can’t because of the way their body is built.”
Said Tara McKay, a power skating coach for Gary Roberts High Performance Training: “Is it because they’re out of hockey early because they cannot play at the pace? Hockey is a sport in which they identify guys so early. … A lot of the successful players now are these strong little tank guys. You cannot really be 6-5, strong and 18 [years old]. I have not seen one look like that with a hockey build at 18.”
SO HOW DOES one explain Thompson? What is it exactly that Thompson is doing that could see him become only the third player 6-5 or taller to score 100 points in a season? (Pete Mahvolich had two 100-point seasons in his career; Sundin had one.)
Here’s the thing about power skating and skills coaches. They live for nuance. And between McKay and Kyle Nishizaki, they can touch on a number of items that they believe have allowed Thompson to be in this position.
Nishizaki is the director of Perfect Skating, a program founded by Colorado Avalanche skills coach Shawn Allard that has worked with hundreds of NHL players.
“First thing is, he’s got pretty good ankle mobility and can get his knee in front of his toe, and that puts him in the right spot with his skate blade,” Nishizaki said. “He’s blessed with long limbs and levers, and is able to produce a lot of force in every push with his length along with being a big, strong guy as well. Those are two things right off the hop that will help him and allow him to be a pretty decent mover for somebody of that size.”
Another point Nishizaki raised about Thompson was how his skating works within the context of being a forward versus a defenseman. Nishizaki said defensemen skate, but there are times when they are able to conserve energy. Forwards, however, can’t conserve energy, because if they do, then there is a chance a mistake is going in the back of the net.
That’s one more detail that could get lost about Thompson. It’s not just the skating — it’s that he never stops moving, and it’s one of the reasons he consistently appears to be in a position to score no matter where he’s at on the ice.
McKay said Thompson’s skating is “pretty flawless,” while noting she cannot believe how strong of a skater he is at that height. She said Thompson has all the traits commonly associated with a player with his length such as a big shot, reach, size and strength. Yet what commonly hurts taller players is the fact they are not the strongest skaters, she said.
She said all skaters, especially tall ones, need to have strong core stability. McKay referenced the work he did with one of her clients, Los Angeles Kings prospect center Quinton Byfield, who is 6-5. In Byfield’s draft year, they worked together to fix his skating and concentrate on his posture.
Some younger skaters with size like Byfield struggle with details such as being bent over in their stance. Or they have a stride that is a bit too long. McKay said those bigger and taller skaters can get away with it at the junior level because they have an advantage over their competition.
But when they turn pro, they’re going against older and stronger competitors who are far more technically sound. McKay said that instability means it’s easier for those bigger skaters to lose the puck, which is something they worked with Byfield on.
McKay said Thompson’s skating has the right amount of length in his stride and he is not bent over. Furthermore, she said Thompson has “excellent agility,” which benefits him in a number of ways throughout the course of a game.
“I find it amazing. I don’t know his backstory,” McKay said. “But something that came to my mind was: ‘How did they build this guy into being able to do this?'”
MANY TALLER PLAYERS either grow up being bigger than their peers from the beginning, or they go through a sudden growth spurt that changes everything — particularly the expectations about what they could accomplish with their newfound height.
Seattle Kraken defenseman Jamie Oleksiak, who is 6-7, said he was always the tallest kid on his team at 6-2, but he grew another 5 inches when he was around 17. New York Islanders forward Pierre Engvall, who is 6-5, said he grew from being the shortest person in his class to almost being the tallest in one summer. Primeau said he was 5-10 and skinny when he was a teenager, but he grew to being 6-3 within six months before ultimately playing at 6-5 in his career.
Being that tall usually means those players either get moved to defense or goaltending, or they started out there. Alternatively, it means they have to play as a big, bruising power forward who makes size their No. 1 attribute.
Initially, Brent Thompson had the older of his two sons, Tage, play as a defenseman. It makes sense given Brent was a defenseman who played more than 100 games in the NHL while spending most of his professional career in the AHL.
“As a child, I tried to convince him to play defense, and actually, he had one game where he played goalie,” Brent said. “The only shot he faced went in, and that was a quick denial on the goaltending side. He liked having the puck on his stick. I tried to convince him, but it didn’t fit.”
Brent said Tage was an undersized player for most of his life. Or rather, it was that way until he was 16 or 17 when he started to grow, with Brent saying his oldest son was still growing as of last season.
The Ducks’ Terry played one season with Thompson when they were teammates at the United States National Team Development Program, USA Hockey’s program to develop what it considers to be the best U-17 and U-18 talents in the nation. Terry saw the start of that growth firsthand.
“I think when I played with him, he had just grown within the last year. It was like a crazy amount,” Terry said. “Like, 7 or 8 inches. He was pretty lanky, and when you were on the ice with him, you could tell his skill and his hands were great. You could just tell, and he would know better than me, but it was like his body hadn’t caught up yet or his mind hadn’t caught up yet. All of his hockey ability was there — you just knew he was going to be a stud. He just needed to figure out how to play at 6-foot-7 as opposed to being 6 feet because he grew that much.”
Said McAvoy, who also was part of the NTDP at that time: “Tommer is a unicorn, and I knew right away, we all did, that he was really special. He had unbelievable hands for his size, shots and you could see he had it when he was 17. He just took a while. He was a late bloomer. … on our U-18 team, he was our fifth-line guy.”
Uh, sorry, Charlie. Did you just say that a future first-round draft pick who is on pace for a 50-goal, 100-point season was on the fifth line?
“I know, it’s funny because it’s like, ‘Holy cow, this guy’s literally one of the best players in the NHL,'” McAvoy smiled. “He probably played five minutes at the [U-18 World Junior Championships] combined. He just took it like a champ and was a valuable part of the team.”
For those wondering who else was on the NTDP roster at the same time as Thompson? Try Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, Florida Panthers duo Matthew Tkachuk and Colin White, Columbus Blue Jackets forward Jack Roslovic, Arizona Coyotes forward Christian Fischer, Sabres forward Jordan Greenway, San Jose Sharks forward Luke Kunin and Terry.
And that’s not even including cameos from Coyotes winger Clayton Keller, who was a year younger but was called up to the U-18s, or even Kraken winger Ryan Donato, who had a four-game run.
Brent said his son might have been 6 feet when he arrived at the NTDP to play one season before going to college. Tage Thompson played two seasons at the University of Connecticut. UConn’s media guide from Thompson’s freshman year listed him at 6-4, and it stated he was 6-5 as a sophomore.
Even now, his height varies depending upon the source. Some websites list him at 6-6; whereas others have him at 6-7.
“To hear his last height, I heard it was 6-6, but he also grew a little more,” Brent said.
SO THAT EXPLAINS the height. What about Thompson’s skill?
Being the son of a former professional hockey player who is also the head coach of the Islanders’ AHL affiliate meant Thompson received a different level of tutelage. Brent said his son was always “a high-level skill” player growing up.
Where Thompson excelled was with his hands, his release and his shot — attributes that continue to serve him to this day. But those skills were developed because he was at one point a small player who did not have the advantage of using his size to beat people. So that meant he had to use skills to create and find space while also using them to score goals.
“I am thinking that was youth hockey from 12 to 15 when you would see him beat a guy once and toe drag him again,” Brent said. “Was it frustrating? Yeah, from a coaching standpoint. From a parent standpoint, it was impressive to see how he developed. … Hockey is something he loved and it was nice to see how he loved it.”
There are stories from Tage Thompson’s youngest years that add to the mythos.
Brent imagines his son was around toddler age when he started taking a miniature stick with him at every turn. There was a night at dinner when Thompson took a butter knife and began stickhandling a Cheerio with the knife like it was a hockey stick at the dinner table.
From there, the cute acts of a child turned into an obsession. When he was old enough, the routine was as follows: Wake up. Go to school. Come home and do homework. Then, shoot pucks or work on stickhandling until it’s either time to eat or it’s time to go to bed.
Brent said the foundation for both of his sons were the countless days they spent poring over the technical details of balance and skating. They worked on balance position, power skating, stride extension and edgework.
“I didn’t let them handle a puck,” Brent recalled. “They had a whole routine at practice or it was in our night sessions. … That built the foundation from there to work on their hands, stickhandling drills, passing drills, shooting drills. We would do a routine and we built on that to talk about the different ways to get the puck off the stick quickly. But the progress and ability to do it progressed each year.”
Brent was only part of that development. Thompson and his brother, Tyce, who plays in the New Jersey Devils‘ organization, also learned from Eric Boguniecki, who was an assistant with Brent in the AHL in Bridgeport along with Islanders skills coach Bernie Cassell.
Yes, Tage Thompson had the natural ability, drive and skills that eventually joined forces with a 6-7 physique that has made him a star. But how did Brent know that the skills he was teaching his sons would be the ones that would have a future place in the NHL?
“We all realized it early and saw the level of skill,” Brent said. “I think to play in today’s game, you have to be able to skate. That was the biggest thing in my brain. You need to be able to skate, control a puck and make a play. Those were things we worked on growing up.”
ASKING NHL PLAYERS about Tage Thompson generates a lot of opinions about what he’s doing and what makes him so unique.
For example, what’s the difference between when McAvoy played against him in practice at the NTDP versus now in the NHL?
“Well, he’s even more dynamic now than he was then!” McAvoy said. “His hands are better now, his shot is better now. Everything is better now. When guys are that long, it’s their reach. They don’t need more space to get [a shot] off because that puck is so far out.”
Or what is it like to be a fellow 6-7 NHL player and see what Thompson is doing?
“Every goal he scores is like a highlight-reel goal,” Oleksiak said with a big grin. “It’s tempting. I watch him and I go, ‘Why can’t I do stuff like that?’ But I think it’s for the best that I don’t try to overdo it.”
What are some of the aspects that make Thompson so difficult to deal with?
“He has an unbelievable ability to toe drag the puck and drag it into his body and releases it from different angles,” Maple Leafs defenseman Mark Giordano said. “His shot, he can get it off from everywhere. But his shot is extremely heavy, too. I think it’s because he’s so big and uses all that whip in his stick.”
And how is it to take on a player like Thompson as a defensive assignment versus someone who has more conventional size?
“There is a difference as far as they have that reach,” Bruins center and five-time Selke Award winner Patrice Bergeron said. “They can protect that puck, and it is harder to get on the inside of them. I think you gotta make sure you keep them to the outside as possible and make sure you have good sticks. Stickwork is the most important part for me against guys like that. They want to make plays and have good speed too.”
Better yet: What’s it like to know someone as big and tall as Thompson has the sort of skill that the game has seen from other young players like — for example — Ducks forward Trevor Zegras?
“It’s funny. Tage is from around where I’m from and where I grew up in Bedford, New York,” Zegras said. “He lived in Bridgeport where his dad coached. I’ve been on the ice with him a couple times throughout the years. … That team in Buffalo is really fast and really skilled, and I feel like he’s kind of the leader of that offense. It’s cool to see and I am definitely not surprised in the slightest to see it.”
Even though Finley is not in the NHL yet, he suggested that Thompson’s success opens the door for bigger players. While Finley admitted he is not that type of player, he has learned a lot from watching Thompson when it comes to how he can protect the puck, as well as being patient, whenever he is on the puck.
“I wish he was around 10 years earlier and I could have modeled my game after him,” Finley said.
Primeau said the game’s contemporary nature means that players — regardless of their height — have all made skill a priority. He said the days of the mixed emotions of seeing a 6-7 player score a goal but not get into a fight are over.
Arnott noted how that shift toward a more skill-based game means bigger players have a better chance to not be pigeonholed as power forwards.
“Everyone looks at hockey as this big, strong physical game,” Arnott said. “When you are a bigger guy, you are looked upon to throw around your weight and use your big body to crash and bang. But you also have to be able to skate. If you can’t skate, then I don’t think it matters how big you are.”
Sports
Biggest concern, what’s left to play for and more: Post-trade-deadline guide for all 30 MLB teams
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Bradford Doolittle
For all the work we do in setting up and covering the MLB trade deadline, the transaction-related activity in some years is a little underwhelming. That was not the case in 2025.
According to my tracking mechanisms, the wild 2025 deadline featured 92 veteran trade candidates on new teams and, likewise, 92 prospects headed to new organizations, seeking their big league opportunity. After all that, we turn our attention to reassessing the new baseball landscape.
This is what we do with every edition of Stock Watch, but there is never as much mystery in the outcomes as there is after a heavy period of roster movement, which yields my two favorite Stock Watch editions: after the in-season trade deadline (now) and during the hot stove season, after the offseason’s heaviest waves of transactions are completed.
As we did last year at this time, we will hone in on each team’s stretch run. This looks different for contenders than those looking to the future, but even for the noncontenders, it’s about what is left to accomplish on the field in 2025 — and how those aims might be achieved.
Jump to a tier:
Top-tier contenders | Second-tier contenders | Teams just hanging on
Teams looking ahead | The Colorado Rockies
Top-tier contenders
Teams with a 90% or better shot at the playoffs
Win average: 95.9 (Last month: 87.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 61.7%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 2.1%)
Lingering concern: Middle-of-the-order power
The Brewers have soared to the top spot of Stock Watch with startling velocity. You might view Milwaukee’s deadline approach as a bit passive, but when you’ve gotten so far by finding solutions within your organization, why change? The Brewers don’t have many obvious needs. Even the shortcoming noted above was listed only because no roster is perfect. But though Milwaukee ranks 15th in isolated power for the season, its offense has been baseball’s hottest, joining a run prevention crew that was already stellar.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 96.1, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 13.6% (Last: 12.6%)
Lingering concern: Frontline pitching
This seems like a big-ticket concern, and it is. Chicago’s rotation and bullpen have been more passable than good this season, at least when the offense has been rolling up big numbers. The club’s passive deadline approach didn’t upgrade that outlook. What the staff needed was some dynamism, whether one of the top closers who moved or a top-of-the-rotation starter. Given Kyle Tucker‘s walk-year contract status, a more all-in mindset was justified.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 101.4, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 99.7%)
Champions: 15.4% (Last: 24.0%)
Lingering concern: Pitching health
What else could it be? All those hurlers who seemed to comprise a super team type of depth chart in the offseason still exist. But the Dodgers’ dizzying turnstile of pitchers going on and off the injured list has never let up. Given what happens to pitchers once they join the Dodgers, maybe L.A. was doing the rest of the majors a small favor by mostly standing pat at the deadline. With the Padres positioned to push the Dodgers to the finish in the National League West, the stretch run can’t just be about rehabbing pitchers for October, either.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 97.9, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 99.8%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 14.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive consistency
When it comes to the overall pecking order, Detroit has come back to the pack. The Tigers focused their deadline work on the pitching staff, to mixed results. Yet, the Tigers’ offensive regression has been the primary culprit for their recent dip. Detroit is deep in prospects but has a right-now opportunity that doesn’t seem like it has been maximized. If Detroit returns to its early-season offensive exploits, though, it won’t matter.
Win average: 92.7 (Last: 93.5, 5th)
In the playoffs: 96.8% (Last: 93.8%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last: 7.6%)
Lingering concern: What about Andrew Painter?
After the Phillies’ deadline pickups of Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader, this is their first-world dilemma. They don’t need Painter, the talented righty who has been in the minors all season after returning from injury. His recent outings have been solid, but he’s still not putting up his pre-injury strikeout numbers. He’s a secret weapon at this point. Painter might not appear in the regular season but make the postseason roster anyway.
Win average: 90.7 (Last: 86.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 92.9% (Last: 72.7%)
Champions: 5.3% (Last: 1.8%)
Lingering concern: Anthony Santander
The Jays didn’t acquire Duran, but they made a couple of key bullpen pickups in Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland. We’ll see if that suffices. The other big need was a middle-of-the-order bat, a void Toronto thought it filled when it signed Santander. Santander has been out since the end of May and contributed little before that. The Blue Jays need Santander’s recovery to pick up and for him to be the thumper they signed.
Second-tier contenders
Teams with playoff odds between 40% and 89%
Win average: 90.2 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 89.0% (Last: 41.3%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 1.1%)
Lingering concern: History
Sure, a future All-Star Game might be half-populated with one-time San Diego prospects, but for now, A.J. Preller’s machinations have eliminated any glaring holes on his roster. The depth after the active-26 group isn’t great, so health is crucial. But as constructed, the Padres are as well-situated for the postseason as anyone. They, along with Seattle and Milwaukee, will try to snap a zero-for-eternity title drought. Any of the three could do it.
Win average: 90.1 (Last: 89.4, 7th)
In the playoffs: 89.4% (Last: 75.7%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 3.2%)
Lingering concern: Juan Soto
The Mets didn’t address their rotation at the deadline, but added enough to the relief staff that it’s not hard to lay out an October blueprint for a bullpen-heavy pitching staff. As for Soto, it’s perhaps not fair to call him a concern. This hasn’t been his best season, but it has been a good season, at least by the standards of most players. But Soto at his .300/.400/.600 best can carry a team, and as the Mets try to emerge from the crowded field of contenders, the time is coming for him to do it.
Win average: 89.5 (Last: 94.7, 4th)
In the playoffs: 88.0% (Last: 98.5%)
Champions: 6.1% (Last: 8.9%)
Lingering concern: How much Yordan Alvarez will the Astros get?
It has been a lost season for Alvarez, who has been out since early May because of a hand injury. Reportedly, Alvarez has been ramping up his activity and should return at some point. But can he be more than a marginal upgrade? Despite the Astros’ deadline pickups, their once-mighty offense won’t be an October threat — if Houston gets that far — unless Alvarez is ready to rake. As the Astros have come back to the pack in the American League West, their offense has been the coldest in baseball. Alvarez is their best hope of getting back to at least average.
Win average: 88.9 (Last: 79.8, 19th)
In the playoffs: 87.6% (Last: 17.8%)
Champions: 5.5% (Last: 0.3%)
Lingering concern: Starting rotation
This team makes a lot more sense if you plug a true No. 2 (or a co-No. 1) in the rotation next to Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox are playing so well it seems greedy to quibble, but what will this look like in the playoffs? Some teams tread water with the rotation and ride the bullpen in October. Boston’s bullpen has been solid, but it seems like the Red Sox will need more balance. Boston needs big finishes from every starter not named Crochet. And Crochet, too.
Win average: 88.8 (Last: 92.4, 6th)
In the playoffs: 87.2% (Last: 95.8%)
Champions: 8.0% (Last: 12.8%)
Lingering concern: Run prevention
With all of their bullpen pickups, the Yankees have set themselves up for the postseason, but they’ve got to get there first. New York still leads the AL in run prevention, but it has been two months since the Yankees have played like a playoff team. The rotation and bullpen have struggled, but so too has the mistake-prone defense. New York’s power-based offense is dangerous, especially when Aaron Judge is healthy, but the Yankees aren’t going to bludgeon their way back to the World Series.
Win average: 86.8 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 70.4% (Last: 66.5%)
Champions: 3.4% (Last: 2.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive regression
Getting Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez back in the same lineup is a coup, and there’s no doubt the Mariners’ offensive profile has improved. But it’s highly unlikely that what we’ll see from Raleigh and Suarez over the rest of the season will match what they’ve done to this point. It’s not saying they’ll collapse but to underscore how their output has been off the charts. Seattle will need plenty of production in addition to that duo, and the Mariners are well-positioned to get it.
Win average: 84.1 (Last: 81.1, 17th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 27.3%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.5%)
Lingering concern: Bullpen
The Rangers’ offense remains confounding, but lately it has been so consistently productive that it has fueled Texas’ resurgence in the AL West race. The rotation remains the standout unit, especially with the addition of Merrill Kelly. Still, though newcomers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton help, you can’t help but look at the prospects it took to acquire Kelly and wonder how much that offer could have been tweaked for Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran.
Teams just hanging on
Teams on the “miracles do happen” tier
Win average: 82.3 (Last: 82.5, 15th)
In the playoffs: 12.3% (Last: 19.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
Hope for a run: Powerhouse rotation
This was going to be the case even without the addition of Zack Littell during what was an odd deadline for the Reds, who reinforced areas of strength without addressing areas of greatest need. But with Hunter Greene nearing his return, if he, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo all finish strong, the Reds will be a force down the stretch.
Win average: 81.8 (Last: 84.4, 14th)
In the playoffs: 9.4% (Last: 35.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 1.2%)
Hope for a run: Exploding stars
The Giants’ subtraction at the deadline wasn’t quite a white flag, but it was a recognition that the once-promising season had petered out. Still, with the Giants off the radar, you can see that each unit features at least one All-Star-level player: Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and dynamic new closer Randy Rodriguez. The roster is thinner, but maybe the Giants have another run in them.
Win average: 80.9 (Last: 76.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 12.5% (Last: 5.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Belief
Some of the many teams in baseball’s wide midsection looked at their mediocrity as an excuse to punt. The Royals looked at it as an opportunity to have some fun. Kansas City was 39-46 at the end of June. Now, the Royals, in Boston facing one of the teams they are chasing in the wild-card race, are one of the AL’s hottest teams. Injuries and underperformance have hampered Kansas City for most of the season, but the front office believed in the group enough to address the holes in a meaningful way. It’s not fancy. It’s just trying.
Win average: 80.3 (Last: 88.2, 8th)
In the playoffs: 10.2% (Last: 82.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 4.5%)
Hope for a run: It can’t get worse?
The Rays are really hard to pin down. They exit the deadline as baseball’s coldest team. They aren’t out of the race in terms of record or games behind, but more because of trajectory. That downward trend was neither helped nor harmed by a deadline strategy that was an odd mix of adding and subtracting. Even the addition of the dynamic Jax is a mixed bag, given it took Taj Bradley to get him.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 85.5, 13th)
In the playoffs: 2.6% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 1.0%)
Hope for a run: There’s always another next year
The Cardinals’ slide, combined with their deadline-related offloading, has them on more of a path to challenge the Pirates for last than the Reds for third. And wasn’t that the design all along? It’s too bad St. Louis played well early this season, or it might have gone into full reset mode earlier, though all of those no-trade clauses would have made it difficult. This is a proud franchise, but this season has been a head-scratcher. If, from the end of last season, the aim of the organization was to maximize its chances of winning in 2025, the Cardinals could have mounted a sustained run. And it’s hard to see what would have been lost in the effort.
Win average: 79.3 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 6.5% (Last: 8.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Jose Ramirez
The Guardians underwent a soft unload at the deadline, trading franchise stalwart Shane Bieber to Toronto. Same old, same old for this franchise. The good part of that stick-to-the-plan organizational cornerstone is that it also encompasses keeping the great Ramirez, who shows zero signs of decline in his 13th season. He might be even better than ever, and if Ramirez were to finish on a massive heater and lead the Guardians into the playoffs on a miracle run, Aaron Judge’s injury problems and Cal Raleigh’s possible regression open the door for Ramirez to win his first MVP.
Teams looking ahead to 2026 and beyond
Playing out the string and hoping for better luck next time
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 69.7, 26th)
In the playoffs: 1.6% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Dig that pitching
The Marlins are really fun to watch, and have been for some time. After a weekend spent throttling the Yankees, it seems like others are taking notice. A true playoff push would involve a really unlikely acceleration of this surge, mostly because none of the current six playoff teams in the NL seems likely to collapse. That doesn’t mean the stifling Marlins rotation can’t hit the hot stove season with momentum, and focus the front office’s offseason plan on adding offense. Also note: The playoff-bound Tigers were in this tier in last season’s edition of this Stock Watch. You never know.
Win average: 77.3 (Last: 82.4, 16th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 20.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.5%)
Remaining objective: See what’s what with Jordan Lawlar
It has been a disappointing season for Arizona. After lofty preseason expectations, injuries poked a hole in the Diamondbacks’ contention bubble, and an aggressive offloading deadline sucked out the rest of the air. Not that GM Mike Hazen did the wrong thing; it’s just a very different place than we thought Arizona was headed. The departure of Suarez is tough, but at least Arizona can take an extended look at Lawlar at the hot corner — if he can get healthy, which isn’t a given. It has been that kind of season.
Win average: 76.1 (Last: 79.7, 20th)
In the playoffs: 1.3% (Last: 18.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Remaining objective: Learn everybody’s name
Some saw the Twins’ “everything must go” deadline approach as malpractice, probably more driven by money than winning. Others saw it as smart and a rapid accumulation of young prospect talent. The two conclusions aren’t mutually exclusive. It depends on how quickly the Twins can reconstruct their bullpen and how many of the newbies pan out.
Win average: 76.0 (Last: 76.3, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 1.1% (Last: 6.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: To keep trying
The Angels’ deadline behavior suggests they see themselves in the tier above this. The numbers don’t agree that that is likely, but, what is lost by the attempt? The Angels have exceeded tepid expectations for the most part. You wonder, given the need for an unusual leap from here, what sector of the Angels’ roster might be situated to fuel such a rise.
Win average: 72.4 (Last: 80.0, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 11.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.4%)
Remaining objective: Get to the offseason
Atlanta’s season has been an exercise in waiting for a Braves surge that never happened. Underperformance put Atlanta in a hole and a worsening injury picture sealed its fate. Some hard questions will need to be answered in the offseason. You can blame injuries, but this season, after last season, constitutes an ugly trend.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 71.1, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Play the kids
The names you want to see as much as possible from here: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Samuel Basallo … just turn them loose and see what it looks like. That’s what this deadline was all about, wasn’t it?
Win average: 69.9 (Last: 71.8, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Help Paul Skenes to a Cy Young
Give Pirates fans something to hang their horizontal-striped hats on. Give Skenes some support, allow him to finish strong and see if he can beat the NL’s other leading hopefuls despite a lack of high-stakes action. The Pirates haven’t had a Cy Young Award-winner since Doug Drabek … in 1990.
Win average: 69.5 (Last: 65.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Finish strong
Sure, this sounds like a generic, lame goal for the rest of the season. But the Athletics have been solid and fun to watch for long stretches of the season. A few weeks of historically awful pitching killed hopes of real competitiveness, but the A’s have responded nicely in the weeks since that slump. The deadline pickup of Leo De Vries only sharpens the anticipation of what’s to come. Keep the good tidings coming headed into the offseason.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 68.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Develop some kind of foothold
The Nationals have me confounded. They have some clear reasons to be excited, led by James Wood. But they’ve been trying to piece together a rebuild for a long time and show no signs of coming out of it. Rather than showing positive strides like the team after them in this Stock Watch, the Nationals have trended ice cold on both sides of the ball as we’ve gotten deeper into the season. They fired their brain trust, which might have been necessary, but it only intensified the problem of figuring out what this team is or where it’s headed.
Win average: 62.1 (Last: 56.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Keep it going
The White Sox might lose 100 games again, but they might not. Seems like damning with faint praise, but given where Chicago was earlier this season, much less a year ago, it seems like a minor miracle. The exciting part is that the younger the White Sox lineup has gotten, the better it has played. Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Chase Meidroth have played key roles, and the White Sox are getting good results from other teams’ castoffs. The newest project is deadline pickup Curtis Mead, who generated so much excitement for the Rays in spring training.
The Colorado Rockies
The horror!
Win average: 44.3 (Last: 41.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
When will it end? Could be sooner than you think
First, it’s not a given that a team gets its own class in this Stock Watch edition. You’ve really got to set yourself apart. The White Sox did it last season, and the Rockies are doing it now. Colorado has picked up the pace, especially on offense, so it is no longer a certainty that the Rockies will dip below Chicago’s record-setting 2024 thud. And the one-year vibe shift in Chicago would be a source of encouragement as well. At the same time … the White Sox had a plan.
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Bill Connelly
According to ESPN BET, there are currently 21 teams with at least +10,000 odds (equivalent to about a 1% chance) of winning the national title in 2025. Thirteen of them are starting new quarterbacks, and seven of those are extremely inexperienced. Three other contenders are starting sophomores who, while experienced compared to others, are still sophomores.
Translation: The quarterback position, already the most important in any team sport, is going to be more important than ever this fall. Whichever of the 21 contenders has a particularly good one will have a massive opportunity on their hands.
Some of these new starters will shine — three of the past seven Heisman winners have been first-year starters, after all. But some will inevitably fall flat or, at least, start slowly. Some have given us tantalizing tastes of potential in small samples. Others will be taking their first meaningful snaps since high school. Some inherit offenses with known stars. Others will be navigating through life with new lines in front of them or new skill corps around them (or, in the case of the No. 1 guy on the list below, both).
It’s time for my annual most important players list. Below are 40 players who could define the season with either moments or long spells of greatness. Some play for contenders, while others play for the teams that might prevent contenders from reaching their goals. All of them will have a chance to make their mark on 2025. As I write in this piece every year, there are birds in hand, and there are unfinished products. This list is typically about the latter. It’s always quarterback-heavy because, well, quarterbacks are always important. But this year, we’re on quarterback overload.
New starting quarterbacks for likely contenders
1. Arch Manning, Texas: I usually count down to No. 1 in this piece in an attempt to build some sort of suspense, but there’s no point in making you wade through 39 other names first when you know who’s going to be No. 1. The top quarterback prospect in the 2023 recruiting class, Manning attempted 108 dropbacks while backing up or filling in for Quinn Ewers the past two seasons. And now he enters 2025 as the Heisman betting favorite (+600), leading a team that is the national title co-favorite (+550) and the likely preseason No. 1 team.
For two years, we’ve looked at 2025 as The Year Of Arch, and now we get to find out if he’s up for the challenge. If he is, then Texas could remain atop the rankings all season and, after two straight College Football Playoff semifinal defeats, make it a couple of wins further. But if he’s merely very good, the Longhorns’ rebuilt offensive and defensive lines and unproven receiving corps could become major obstacles. No pressure, dude.
2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia: The small-town Georgia product and former blue-chipper found himself in an impossible situation, making his first career start in the 2024 CFP quarterfinals last season against Notre Dame. He made some fabulous throws, suffered a devastating sack-and-strip fumble and couldn’t quite get the job done. Now he has gotten an entire offseason to prepare for start No. 2 and beyond. Georgia has the highest floor in the sport, but the Dawgs’ ceiling will be defined by Stockton and a receiving corps that didn’t do nearly enough for its QBs last season.
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama: The Bama defense gave up only 14.4 points per game in its final seven contests, but the Tide went just 4-3 in that span because the offense disappeared, reappeared, then vanished for good. With Ryan Grubb rejoining Kalen DeBoer as offensive coordinator and receiver Ryan Williams returning, it seems this is a great situation for a new QB. Can Simpson, a longtime backup, seize his opportunity and lead Bama through tricky early road trips to Florida State and Georgia? Or will he be supplanted by a youngster by midseason?
4. CJ Carr, Notre Dame: Notre Dame made the national title game last season despite an offense focused mainly on short passes and lots of third-down QB keepers. Riley Leonard was really good at those things, but Carr, a top-40 prospect in 2024, brings quite the old-school, pro-style skill set to the table. Can he boost the Irish’s upside enough to maybe actually win the national title game (while providing enough of a floor to get them back there)?
5. Dante Moore, Oregon: Moore took on too much too soon as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, but after a year as Dillon Gabriel’s understudy, he’ll try to guide a massively overhauled Oregon offense well enough to keep the Ducks in the hunt for a second Big Ten title in two tries. I’m not sure about his upside, but a good run game and good decision-making from Moore will take Oregon a long way down the road.
6. Julian Sayin, Ohio State: He has completed five career passes, all in fourth-quarter garbage time, and now he likely takes the reins for the defending national champ and a team that has ranked worse than seventh in offensive SP+ just once in eight years. There’s massive pressure that comes with that, and at some point Sayin will have to make some big third-down passes. But he’ll be throwing to the best receiver duo in the sport (Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate). That will help.
Quarterbacks with a potential game-changing leap in them
7. Drew Allar, Penn State (No. 2 in 2023, No. 5 in 2024): Two years ago, this category featured the quarterbacks who would go on to win the national title (J.J. McCarthy), win the Heisman (Jayden Daniels) and lead a team to an unbeaten start before a devastating late-season injury (Jordan Travis). Last year it featured the guy who would make a game-changing leap all the way to the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft (Cam Ward). This category is a good place to find guys who will define the season.
It’s also a good place to find Drew Allar. He’s in here for the second straight season. In his first season with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, he took a clear step forward, from 2,631 passing yards to 3,327 and, more importantly, from 27th to 10th in Total QBR. His devastating pick late in PSU’s semifinal loss to Notre Dame has festered all offseason, but he’s clearly very good, and if he improves just a little bit more, his Nittany Lions might be just about bulletproof.
8. Cade Klubnik, Clemson: In six career games against top-10 opponents, Allar has completed 49% of his passes, averaged just 4.9 yards per dropback and 156.5 yards per game, produced a horribly mediocre 54.9 Total QBR and gone just 1-5. Klubnik hasn’t exactly thrived against that level of competition, but following his performance against Texas in last season’s CFP first round — 336 yards, 3 touchdowns and an 81.5 Total QBR — his hype has increased. He’s the No. 2 Heisman betting favorite (+800), and Clemson should start the season with its highest preseason poll ranking in at least three years. I’ve spent much of the offseason as a Clemson-as-contender skeptic, but if Klubnik torches LSU in Week 1, the table is set for a huge run.
9. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (No. 7 in 2024): Klubnik vs. Nussmeier in Week 1 will be quite the market shifter when it comes to Heisman odds, and this game will give two teams with loads of upside and lots of question marks a chance to make a huge statement. LSU’s defense will probably determine its contention fate, but if Nussmeier, the No. 3 Heisman betting favorite (+900), takes a Jayden Daniels- or Joe Burrow-esque leap in his second year as a starter, the defense won’t have to make all that many stops.
10. Carson Beck, Miami: In two years as Georgia’s starter, Beck went 5-2 against top-10 opponents and produced a Total QBR over 92 on three occasions. Granted, he threw three picks twice as well (both times in 2024), but Georgia averaged a mammoth 36.6 points per game in those seven contests. He’s the most proven big-game player in the sport this season. But he also had a confusing run of poor play last season — 12 interceptions and 13 sacks in a six-game span — that damaged (or at least confused) perceptions. His final act will determine his legacy to a degree. Can he, with help from a theoretically improved defense, take Miami to its first CFP?
Young/inexperienced/new QBs with both spoiler and contender potential
11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
12. DJ Lagway, Florida
13. John Mateer, Oklahoma
14. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
15. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss
It was a jarring and repetitive theme in my SEC preview: “If [insert quarterback here] is awesome, [insert mid-level contender here] becomes a serious contender for a CFP bid.”
Granted, the paths for Florida and (especially) Oklahoma are trickier, and Lagway needs to be healthy before he can really threaten to upend this season. But any of these five QBs could lead playoff runs. Meanwhile, these five teams will play a combined 15 games against projected top-10 teams, per SP+, and 35 games against top-25 teams. If they don’t end up in the CFP hunt, they’ll have huge roles in determining who does.
These aren’t just five interesting quarterbacks — all five aspire to make plays, and that comes with risk.
• The national average for yards per completion last season was 12.1. All five of these QBs averaged at least 12.7, and Mateer (14.0 at Washington State), Simmons (14.8 in the smallest sample of the bunch) and Lagway (16.7) averaged far more.
• The national average for scramble rate (scrambles per dropback) was 6.6%. Lagway was at 7.2%, with Mateer at 11.1%, Sellers at 12.4% and Reed at 16.7%.
• The national average for air yards per pass was 8.6 yards downfield. Reed was at 9.3, Mateer 9.7, Lagway 10.6 and Simmons 11.3.
• Seeking out big plays comes with a sack risk. The national average for sacks per pressure was 17.8%. (Higher is worse in this case.) Simmons was at 25%, Sellers 25.6%, Mateer 28.4%.
• The national average for designed run rate (designed runs per snap) was 10.6%. Sellers was at 18.5%, Mateer 18.9%.
For that matter, Arch Manning had higher-than-normal numbers in terms of yards per completion, air yards, sacks per pressure and designed runs. These guys make huge plays and take hits. That will work out great for some and, perhaps, poorly for others. I can’t wait to see how this plays out.
Others: Joey Aguilar or Jake Merklinger, Tennessee; Beau Pribula or Sam Horn, Missouri; Bryce Underwood, Michigan
Potential stars in need of a breakthrough
16. Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. or T.J. Moore, Clemson: Wesco had three 100-yard games and averaged 17.3 yards per catch as a freshman. Moore ended his freshman season by torching Texas for 116 yards in the CFP. Williams has almost 2,000 career receiving yards. They comprise the most impressive receiving corps Clemson has had in quite some time, but even with them, Cade Klubnik averaged only 11.8 yards per completion last season. The last eight national title quarterbacks averaged at least 13.6. (The last one who didn’t? Clemson’s Deshaun Watson at 11.8.) It’s really hard to nibble your way to the national championship, and Klubnik’s receivers need to come up big if the Tigers are going to deliver on what probably will be a very lofty preseason ranking.
17. Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State: OK, by most definitions, Dennis-Sutton is already a star. He made 15 tackles for loss with 8.5 sacks and 13 run stops last season. Few did better, but former teammate Abdul Carter was one of them. The new New York Giant was otherworldly last season, and his departure means 23.5 TFLs and 12 sacks need replacing. Can Dennis-Sutton raise his game just a bit more and make sure new coordinator Jim Knowles has elite disruption up front?
18. Harold Perkins Jr., LSU: Over the last seven games of his freshman season, Perkins hit a level we almost never see, recording 50 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 8 run stops, 2 forced fumbles and 2 pass breakups. In basically half a season. Just think of what he might be capable of when he knows what he’s doing. We’re still waiting to see what he’s capable of. He was good as a sophomore, then tore his ACL four games into the 2024 season. Now comes a golden opportunity. Perkins and Whit Weeks are both full strength, and Brian Kelly basically went out and grabbed every defensive end in the portal. It sure feels as if coordinator Blake Baker has the disruptors he needs. Can Perkins break through and lead the first genuinely awesome LSU defense since 2019?
Others: Dillon Bell (No. 12 in 2024) or Colbie Young, Georgia
Most important (non-QB) transfers
19. Makhi Hughes, Oregon: Hughes was just about the most proven and known quantity in the transfer portal. Over 28 games at Tulane, he touched the ball 553 times (523 rushes, 30 catches) and gained 3,022 yards with 24 touchdowns. He’s a fantastic yards-after-contact guy and has shown he can both grind out yards between the tackles and hit the afterburners when he finds space. If he can become the same type of go-to guy in the Big Ten, it will take immense pressure off Dante Moore and the rest of a completely revamped Oregon offense.
20. Zachariah Branch, Georgia: When Gunner Stockton was desperately trying to make plays against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, his supporting cast just didn’t support him enough. All season, in fact, it was clear offensive coordinator Mike Bobo couldn’t figure out around whom to build the offense. The returning receiving corps has decent experience, but Branch was a tantalizing but frustrating figure at USC. A former top-10 prospect, he’s a dynamic return man, but he managed only 823 total receiving yards at 10.6 per catch in two seasons. Can he give Stockton both a reliable set of hands and the occasional chunk play?
21. Dillon Thieneman, Oregon: The Oregon offense basically returns 1.5 starters. The defense is in slightly better shape — it returns three. But they’re all linebackers. The secondary lost all eight players who topped 80 snaps last season and will lean heavily on Thieneman and a pair of cornerback transfers to hold up. The good news? Thieneman is awesome. He was a third-team All-American as a freshman in 2023 and a steady playmaker (and play-preventer) for a dreadful Purdue defense in 2024. If he can lead a reliable secondary in the back, Oregon should have enough proven entities and former star recruits to survive up front.
Others: Nic Anderson, LSU; Malachi Fields and/or Will Pauling, Notre Dame; Will Heldt, Clemson; Elo Modozie, Georgia; Isaiah World and/or Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon
Grizzled old spoiler quarterbacks
22. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: As far as final acts go, beating Alabama and leading Vandy to its first bowl win in 11 years would have been pretty spectacular. But Pavia sued to return for one final year of eligibility and won, and with a lot of the same players around him, he’ll try to make a few more memories. The Commodores get shots at Alabama, Texas, LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina, and though only one of those games is at home, Pavia & Co. probably will scare the hell out of someone in that group.
23. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (No. 21 in 2024): King’s Tech began 2024 by sending Florida State down its nightmare path, then finished it by KO’ing unbeaten Miami and nearly beating Georgia. King and running back Jamal Haynes can play the ball-control game as well as just about anyone, and they get home games against both Clemson and Georgia in 2025. OK, fine, the Georgia game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and that only sort of counts. Still, that sounds semi-ominous.
Pure transcendence potential
24. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (No. 11 in 2024)
25. Caleb Downs, Ohio State
It was going to be almost impossible for Smith, a Hollywood, Florida, product, to live up to his recruiting hype. He did so almost immediately. He topped 80 receiving yards in 10 games and hit triple digits in five, including an all-time, 187-yard, two-touchdown performance against Oregon in the CFP quarterfinal (and his first Rose Bowl trip). Smith and Carnell Tate will give Julian Sayin the ultimate security blanket.
Meanwhile, though it was hard to be inspired by Ryan Day’s decision to replace outgoing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles with former Bill Belichick protege Matt Patricia — last truly strong performance as a coach: 2016; last year coaching in college: 2003 — Downs will give the Buckeyes basically a second coordinator on the field. He’s an almost perfect safety. He made 12 tackles at or near the line of scrimmage last season, delivered pressure on 31% of his pass rushes and gave up a 29% completion rate and 0.7 QBR when paired up in coverage. Ohio State faces a huge challenge, attempting to repeat as champ with a new starting QB and two new coordinators. But the Buckeyes could have the two best players in the sport. And that could be enough.
26. Peter Woods and/or T.J. Parker, Clemson: Nearly the perfect defensive line duo. Despite Woods sitting out three games, they combined for 24 tackles for loss, 23 run stops and 14 sacks last season, and they also welcome dynamic Purdue transfer Will Heldt to the party. But even with these two, the Tigers ranked just 29th in defensive SP+ last season. Most of the two-deep returns, and new defensive coordinator Tom Allen should provide a jolt of energy, but it might take a transcendent step from Parker or Woods for Clemson to make a title run.
27. Ryan Williams, Alabama: Jeremiah Smith had one of the best freshman seasons we’ve ever seen, but a different freshman might have made the best play of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
Williams’ production trailed off after a torrid first five games, but it’s clear what he is capable of. If he channels Georgia energy for a larger portion of 2025, he’ll make the Tide awfully terrifying.
28. Leonard Moore and/or Christian Gray, Notre Dame: It was honestly incredible. Notre Dame lost all-world cornerback Benjamin Morrison to injury six games into 2024 and didn’t miss a single beat because Gray and Moore — then just a sophomore and freshman, respectively — were so damn good. They finished the season having combined for 5 interceptions, 19 pass breakups and 3 forced fumbles, and Gray’s spectacular interception of Drew Allar set up Notre Dame’s CFP semifinal win. Just imagine if even just one of these two hasn’t actually reached his ceiling.
Others: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas; Deontae Lawson, Alabama; Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame; Colin Simmons, Texas; Nicholas Singleton and/or Kaytron Allen, Penn State; Dylan Stewart, South Carolina
Most important players in the ACC race
Though the list to this point has focused mostly on teams with the best national title odds, a 12-team playoff with five conference champion automatic bids assures that tons of teams actually have playoff shots. So let’s focus on the bids that won’t go to the SEC and Big Ten champs.
29. Kevin Jennings, SMU: Last season was supposed to be Preston Stone‘s moment, but Jennings won the quarterback job early in 2024, then proceeded to win nine straight starts and lead SMU to both the ACC championship game and the CFP. But mistakes — two early turnovers against Clemson, three picks (including two pick-sixes) against Penn State — ended the season in ignominious fashion. If Jennings rebounds and improves, SMU will again contend for a CFP spot. But wow, was that a crushing way to end 2024.
30. Rueben Bain Jr., Miami: After an incredible freshman debut in 2023, Bain was hurt just three snaps into 2024, sat out more than a month and flashed a true fifth gear only a few times while the Miami defense crumbled down the stretch. But as with Harold Perkins Jr., the potential here is obvious, and if he is all the way back up to speed and Miami’s transfer-heavy secondary holds up, the Canes could leave most league contenders in the dust.
31. Miller Moss, Louisville (No. 20 in 2024): Moss was on this list last year as he prepared to succeed Caleb Williams at USC. He started the season brilliantly in a win over LSU but finished it on the bench as the Trojans wound up 7-6. He wasn’t bad — he finished 26th in Total QBR — but a fresh start sure seemed like a decent idea. Jeff Brohm has a pretty good history with quarterbacks, and Moss will have one of the nation’s best RB duos (plus explosive receiver Chris Bell) in support. A big Moss season makes the Cardinals contenders.
32. Darian Mensah, Duke: Duke was a mini-Michigan last season, playing good enough defense to win nine games despite no run game and a passing game Manny Diaz disliked so much that he immediately went out and grabbed Mensah with what was believed to be a big-money deal. At Tulane in 2024, Mensah was excellent for a redshirt freshman; if he becomes simply excellent, period, why shouldn’t the Blue Devils be considered contenders? (Especially with a light conference schedule featuring only one projected top-40 ACC team?)
Others: Isaac Brown and/or Duke Watson, Louisville; Kyle Louis, Pittsburgh; Francis Mauigoa, Miami; Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh; Chandler Rivers, Duke
Most important players in the Big 12 race
33. Avery Johnson, Kansas State: The Wildcats don’t need a big-time, blue-chip quarterback to win a lot of games. Kansas State’s three straight nine- or 10-win seasons (and 2022 Big 12 title) are a testament to that. But it sure would feel like a waste if the Wildcats didn’t do something particularly impressive when they had a blue-chipper from their own backyard. Johnson, a top-100 prospect and product of Maize, Kansas, was fun if predictably mistake-prone in 2024, but if he phases out some of the errors and maximizes the big plays, K-State’s ceiling is higher than 10 wins.
34. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State: It was almost lost in the Cam Skattebo hysteria, but Leavitt was absolutely dynamite during ASU’s late-2024 hot streak. From November onward, he ranked second among all FBS starters in Total QBR, averaging 7.9 yards per dropback with a 16-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio (and scrambling beautifully) despite losing his go-to receiver, Jordyn Tyson, to injury. Having Skattebo next to him helped in obvious ways, but with a deeper receiving corps and a still-decent set of RBs, Leavitt could pilot an exciting Sun Devils offense and lead a second straight conference title charge.
35. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor: We’re going particularly quarterback-heavy in this section, but, well, this is a quarterback-heavy conference. And over the course of 2024, Robertson might have been the conference’s best. (He had the best Total QBR, at least.) He threw for 3,071 yards at an explosive 13.4 yards per completion, and he returns last season’s top two receivers, Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins. Baylor could have its best offense in a decade, which would give a work-in-progress defense quite a bit of margin for error.
36. Josh Hoover, TCU: Like TCU as a whole, Hoover spent much of 2024 looking great while under the radar. The Frogs won six of their last seven — they were probably the second-best team in the Big 12 after mid-October — and the quick-passing Hoover finished second in the conference in passing yards (3,949) and completion rate (66.5%), and first in yards per dropback (7.8). He’ll be working with a new receiving corps, but if he and TCU pick up where they left off, a conference title is within reach.
Others: David Bailey, Texas Tech; Rocco Becht, Iowa State; Devon Dampier, Utah; Spencer Fano, Utah; Behren Morton, Texas Tech; Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
Most important Group of 5 players
37. Maddux Madsen, Boise State: Like Sam Leavitt, Madsen is going without training wheels this season. He no longer has the amazing Ashton Jeanty next to him, but he was still awfully good for a first-year starter in 2024. Madsen was fourth in Total QBR among Group of 5 QBs — second among those who threw more than 150 passes — and the Broncos were excellent on third downs, even when they had fallen off schedule. He’ll have experience all around him, and if he makes typical second-year-starter improvements, Boise State will be a runaway favorite to reach a second straight CFP.
38. Jake Retzlaff, Tulane: With both defending American Athletic champion Army and annual contender Memphis losing loads of production, Tulane has a massive opportunity to make a run in 2025, but it will require a quarterback. Jon Sumrall clearly knows this, as he brought in four QB transfers, and the latest might be the most vital.
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How Jake Retzlaff ended up at Tulane
Pete Thamel gives the sequence of events that ended with former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff ending up at Tulane.
Retzlaff threw for 2,947 yards and 20 TDs as BYU surged up the Big 12 standings, and he’s now the biggest name in the Green Wave’s QB room. If he can get up to speed quickly, he’ll raise an already high ceiling in New Orleans.
39. Jayden Virgin-Morgan, Boise State: BSU must account for the loss of star pass rusher Ahmed Hassanein, but in Virgin-Morgan the Broncos might still have the best G5 defender in the country. He wasn’t quite as good as Hassanein against the run, but he has good size, and his 10 sacks as a sophomore (including 2.5 in two key wins over UNLV) were proof of massive potential. As with Madsen, a bit more development could make Boise nearly bullet-proof.
40. Alex Orji (No. 2 in 2024) or Anthony Colandrea, UNLV: The Rebels might be the single most fascinating team in the Group of 5. After winning 20 games in 2023 and ’24 (the same number they had won in the six years prior), they lost head coach Barry Odom and most of last season’s starters. That typically spells doom, but new head coach Dan Mullen has a fantastic résumé, and his transfer haul includes more blue-chippers than a lot of power-conference rosters can boast.
If either Orji or Colandrea thrive at quarterback, the Rebels could threaten Boise State. But Orji proved terribly one-dimensional in a failed audition at Michigan, and Colandrea was more confident than effective at Virginia. UNLV’s season could go in a lot of directions, but the ceiling is still high.
Others: Alonza Barnett III, James Madison; Walker Eget, San Jose State; Blake Horvath, Navy; Brendon Lewis, Memphis; Owen McCown, UTSA
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