How Working-Class White Voters Became the GOPs Foundation

Published

2 years ago

March 26, 2023

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The escalating confrontation between the parties over the federal budget rests on a fundamental paradox: The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is now more likely than Democrats to represent districts filled with older and lower-income voters who rely on the social programs that the GOP wants to cut.

A much larger share of Republican than Democratic House members represent districts where seniors exceed their share of the national population, census data show. Republicans are also more likely to represent districts where the median income trails the national level, or the proportion of people without health insurance is greater than in the nation overall.

House Republicans, in their ongoing struggle with President Joe Biden over raising the debt ceiling, have signaled they will push for sweeping reductions in domestic social programs, likely including Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, the principal federal programs providing health care for working-age adults. And while House Republicans appear to have backed away from pursuing reductions in Social Security and Medicare, the conservative Republican Study Committee has set a long-term goal of cutting and partially privatizing both programs.

Ruy Teixeira: Democrats long goodbye to the working class

The fact that so many House Republicans feel safe advancing these proposals in districts with such extensive economic need testifies to the power of what Ive called the class inversion in American politics: the growing tendency of voters to divide between the parties based on cultural attitudes, rather than class interests. That dynamic has simultaneously allowed House Democrats to gain in more socially liberal, affluent, metropolitan areas and House Republicans to consolidate their hold over more culturally conservative, economically hardscrabble, nonurban areas.

Yesterday, Biden forcefully reiterated his charge that Republicans would shred the safety net at a White House ceremony commemorating the 13th anniversary of Barack Obama signing the ACA into law. An extended battle between House Republicans and Biden this spring and summer over the safety net may test whether any economic argument can allow Democrats to break through the cultural resistance that fortifies Republican control of these downscale districts.

While Republicans have gained in some areas primarily around culturally and racially infused disputes such as those over crime and immigration, a struggle over spending priorities will inevitably highlight that their policies on these bread-and-butter issues remain diametrically opposed to the economic interest of much of their base, Paul Pierson, a political scientist at UC Berkeley and a co-author of Let Them Eat Tweets, told me.

As I reported last week, to understand the social and economic characteristics of the House seats held by each party, Jeffer Giang and Justin Scoggins of the Equity Research Institute at the University of Southern California analyzed five-year summary results through 2020 from the Census Bureaus American Community Survey.

That analysis inverts many traditional assumptions, even within the parties themselves, about whose voters rely on the social safety net. There has been a massive transformation of the coalitions, Manuel Pastor, a sociology professor at USC and the director of the Equity Research Institute, told me.

Democrats, who led the legislative efforts to create Social Security under Franklin D. Roosevelt and Medicare under Lyndon B. Johnson, have long thought of themselves as the party of seniors. But today, Republicans represent 141 of the 215 House districts where adults aged 65 and older exceed their 16 percent share of the national population, while Democrats hold a clear majority of seats in districts with fewer seniors than average, according to the Equity Research Institute analysis.

Republicans now also control most of the House seats in which the median income trails the national level of nearly $65,000 annually. Republicans hold 152 of the 237 seats in that category. Democrats, in turn, hold 128 of the 198 seats where the median income exceeds the national level.

Perhaps most surprisingly, Republicans hold a clear majority of the districts where the share of residents who lack health insurance exceeds the national level of 9 percent. The GOP now holds 110 of those 185 highly uninsured seats. Democrats control 138 of the 250 seats with fewer uninsured than the nation overall.

Equally revealing is to examine what share of each partys total strength in the House these seats represent. From that angle, the parties offer almost mirror-image profiles. About two-thirds of House Republicans represent districts with more seniors than the national level, while about two-thirds of Democrats represent districts with fewer of them. Roughly two-thirds of House Republicans represent districts where the median income lags the national level, while three-fifths of Democrats hold seats where incomes surpass it. Almost exactly half of Republicans, compared with only about one-third of Democrats, represent districts with an unusually high concentration of people lacking health insurance.

The economically vulnerable districts that each side holds also present a stark demographic contrast. Low-income Democratic seats tend to be in urban centers with large nonwhite populations. In more than three-fourths of the Democratic seats with a median income below the national level, and in virtually all of the Democratic districts with more uninsured people than average, the minority share of the population is also higher than the national average.

Some low-income Republican districts also have large minority populations, particularly in Texas and Florida, where the GOP has made inroads into culturally conservative Latino communities. But mostly the low-income GOP seats are centered on working-class white areas, many of them outside metropolitan areas.

Read: Are Latinos really realigning toward Republicans?

In the 141 seats Republicans hold with more seniors than the national average, white residents exceed their national share of the population in 127 of them. Likewise, white residents surpass their share of the national population in more than four-fifths of the Republican-held districts that lag the median income. Nearly half of House Republicans represent districts in which all three things are true: They have more seniors than the national level, more white residents than the national level, and a lower median income than the national level.

All of this reflects how working-class white voters, many of them financially squeezed, have become the unquestioned foundation of the GOPs coalition at every level, from the House through presidential elections.

Biden is laying siege to those voters with a strategy of deemphasizing cultural disputes and stressing kitchen-table economic benefits. Democrats really are making appeals to these districts in a big way, Pierson said. Most of that infrastructure and climate [spending] is going to go on in red states. There really is a big effort to say, We are going to use policy to try to make our electoral coalition bigger.

A key element of Bidens courtship of these voters is defending the social safety net, especially Social Security and Medicare. The presidents repeated rejection of reductions in those programs, combined with former President Donald Trumps opposition to potential cuts, has resulted in the most obvious concession by House Republicans to their evolving electoral base: public declarations by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other leaders that they will not target Social Security and Medicare in the cutbacks they are demanding for raising the federal debt limit this summer.

Republicans hope that exempting Social Security and Medicare will dampen any backlash to their deficit-reduction plans in economically vulnerable districts. But protecting those programs, as well as defense, from cutswhile also precluding tax increaseswill force the House Republicans to propose severe reductions in other domestic programs that many voters in blu-collar Republican districts rely on, potentially including Medicaid, the ACA, and food and housing assistance.

Will a Republican push for severe reductions in those programs provide Democrats with an opening in such places? Robert J. Blendon, a professor emeritus at the Harvard School of Public Health, is dubious. Although these areas have extensive needs, he told me, the residents voting Republican in them are generally skeptical of social-welfare spending apart from Social Security and Medicare. We are dealing with a set of values here, which has a distrust of government and a sense that anyone should have to work to get any sort of low-income benefit, Blendon said. The people voting Republican in those districts dont see it as important [that] government provides those benefits.

The one risk for Republicans in such areas, he noted, would be if voters conclude that they present a genuine threat to Social Security and Medicare. Even most conservative voters strongly favor those programs, Blendon told me, primarily because they view them as an earned benefit that workers have contributed to during their lifetime. If the GOP seriously pushes ideas such as converting Medicare into a voucher program, or diverting part of Social Security revenue into private investment accounts, then in districts with a lot of older people, they are going to get in trouble, Blendon said.

Pastor, the director of the Equity Research Institute, also believes that current Democratic arguments targeted at older and non-college-educated white voters that they are voting against their interests economically are unlikely to succeed. The problem, he says, is that those arguments dont directly address the way many voters also define their interests to include cultural and racial dynamics. Because Republican strength in these older, predominantly white, financially stressed districts is rooted largely in the alienation of white voters who fear the country is shifting on them demographically, Democrats must ultimately make a more explicit case to those voters about how all Americans can benefit from a more diverse and inclusive society, Pastor said. The Democratic Party needs to figure out how to talk more effectively about race and racismnot try to ignore it, but try to inoculate people against it, he said.

Read: The four quadrants of American politics

Bryan Bennett, the senior director of polling and analytics at the Hub Project, notes that the majority of voters, including seniors, support Bidens approach to preserving the safety net for retirees: In a recent national survey, his group found that voters were nearly four times as likely to support stabilizing Medicare by raising taxes on the affluent rather than cutting benefits. There is quite a bit of economically populist appetite even among Republicans for raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, Bennett told me. Even Medicaid, once seen as a program for the poor, now draws widespread support across party lines, he said.

Yet Bennett, too, is cautious about predicting that Republican efforts to cut the safety net will hurt them in districts that highly depend on it. The GOP, Bennett said, is gambling that it can cut programs that benefit the partys lower-income white base and still prevent those voters from defecting to Democrats by stressing other issues like immigration and the culture war.

If Republicans face any internal resistance to sharp cuts in the safety net, in fact, it may be more likely to come from their members who represent socially liberal white-collar districts that dont rely as much on these programs than from their members who represent the culturally conservative blue-collar districts that do depend on them. The Republicans who seem least concerned about targeting the social safety net are those who represent the places that need those programs the most. Thats another telling measure of just how fully the concrete has settled beneath a modern political alignment that revolves more around culture than class.

UK

‘Our daughter was unlawfully killed – but loophole means she won’t get justice’

Published

52 mins ago

August 30, 2025

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'Our daughter was unlawfully killed - but loophole means she won't get justice'

In the hospital which was supposed to help her, the last moments of 14-year-old Ruth Szymankiewicz’s life were recorded on CCTV.

The teenager, who should have been under constant supervision on the children’s psychiatric ward, was left alone by her support worker at Taplow Manor Hospital in Berkshire. Fifteen minutes later, she had fatally self-harmed.

The worker assigned to her had only one-and-a-half days’ training and had faked his identity using false documents.

Earlier this month, a jury at the inquest into Ruth’s death concluded she was unlawfully killed. Despite this, there have been no criminal prosecutions.

Speaking to Sky News and The Independent in their first TV interview, Ruth’s father, Mark, said: “She went somewhere that was supposed to be helping her, and it made her worse. The isolation and lack of access to her family had a massively negative impact.”

Her mother, Kate, added: “The children get lost. Ruth got lost. She was lost in the middle of all this chaos.”

Ruth’s parents have said the hospital’s strict visiting regime meant they were unable to see their daughter as often as they had wanted. Her father never saw her room.

“Her access to us was denied,” Mark said. “We were willing and able to give that support. It completely derailed her.”

The family believe that if Ruth had been allowed regular contact with them, she would still be alive.

History of failings

The failures at Taplow Manor were well-documented. Investigations by Sky News and The Independent uncovered disturbing evidence about the treatment of young people.

There were numerous critical reports, including three from the Care Quality Commission (CQC) regulator in the year leading up to Ruth’s death, each one highlighting unsafe practices.

Despite this, the NHS continued to send vulnerable children there.

At Ruth’s inquest, an NHS clinician in charge of commissioning her care admitted they knew about the issues at the hospital.

The inquest heard there were no other psychiatric intensive care units close enough to send her to.

Steph Smith was a former patient at Taplow Manor – then known as The Huntercombe Hospital Maidenhead – in 2017, who later went on to work at the unit as a healthcare assistant between September 2021 and February 2022.

She described the ward as “chaotic, scary and intense”.

“There was a huge culture of covering things up,” she said.

“Observations weren’t done. People just signed the paperwork at the end of the shift. On paper, it looked fine, but in reality, children were left at risk.

“It was only a matter of time. It breaks my heart that it took a 14-year-old girl dying for the hospital to close. It should have been shut years ago.”

Staff warned managers

Nurse Ellesha Branaghan worked as a clinical team leader on Ruth’s ward. She and colleagues warned managers about shortages on the rota.

“We would often tell them the staffing levels weren’t safe but we just kept getting told these are the numbers,” she said.

She said a lack of staffing often meant patients could not go on leave, or even visit the hospital gardens.

There were occasions, she said, when patient observation levels were decreased because there were not enough staff on shift.

“Sometimes we would have four or five incidents at the same time,” she added. “We didn’t have the staff to respond, so that becomes unsafe.”

The staffing levels became “so severe” that even patients wrote to senior managers to express concerns.

An NHS England spokesperson said: “All providers must operate to the highest standards and the NHS worked with young people and families to move patients from Taplow Manor to other clinically appropriate services.”

The ‘loophole’

Taplow Manor was finally closed in 2023. The CQC had visited the hospital just 11 days before Ruth’s death.

High-level feedback was given following this, highlighting concerns with the environment, care plans not being followed and staffing levels.

After further inspections in March 2022, the watchdog issued a warning notice about failings in patient observations.

But once a warning notice is issued, that particular issue cannot be the subject of a criminal prosecution – something Ruth’s parents describe as a “loophole”.

Mark said the CQC opened an investigation into his daughter’s death and looked at a “number of different routes to potentially prosecute the Active Care Group”.

Active Care Group acquired the Huntercombe Group, which ran Taplow Manor, in December 2021.

Mark said the regulator was not “allowed or able to prosecute, even though the same failing happened with catastrophic consequences”.

‘No justice for Ruth’

The CQC said it did carry out a full criminal investigation but the evidence “did not meet the threshold”.

It added that there was no suggestion the outcome would have been different if there had been no warning notice.

For Ruth’s parents, this is unacceptable.

“Why did our daughter have to die before anyone paid attention?” Kate asked. “They knew all this before she died.”

The inquest ruling of unlawful killing has brought no comfort to Ruth’s family.

“There can be no justice for Ruth,” her father said. “She’s dead, she’s gone. We’re left with the fallout.”

A CQC spokesperson said the regulator began a criminal investigation in November 2022 but “found that there was not sufficient evidence to charge”.

“We know that this was disappointing for Ruth’s family, and we met with them to explain how we came to this decision,” the spokesperson added.

“We have a range of enforcement powers available to us and criminal action is only an option when the evidence demonstrates without any doubt that there have been organisational failings that can be proven to the required legal threshold.”

Following Ruth’s death, the CQC continued to visit the unit. A report published just six months later raised more concerns over observations, saying “there had been 22 incidents involving poor practice with observing young people”.

It went on: “The incidents ranged from staff falling asleep, not following young people when they left the room and completing other tasks whilst they were meant to be observing someone.”

It was rated inadequate in December 2022, before its closure.

Ex-patients voice concerns

Ruth’s case echoes concerns raised by other former patients.

Amber Rehman, who was admitted to Huntercombe Hospital in 2019, said: “Ruth’s story – I’ve heard so many similar stories. It could happen to anyone. It could still be happening out there.”

Amber’s mother, Nikki, said: “It was absolutely preventable. No one made changes.”

Amber’s family made a formal complaint about the care she received.

An independent review was commissioned by the hospital, which found issues with observations – including missing observation records – and an over-reliance on physical intervention and medication.

The review – which was published exactly a year before Ruth harmed herself – recommended an audit of the observation records, and said the way the hospital communicated and engaged with families should be looked at.

Sky News has seen two other independent reports commissioned by the hospital before Ruth died, raising similar concerns – including engagement and communication with the patient’s family.

Fifty former patients came forward to our investigation in 2022 to share their experience of this hospital and a number of other units run by the same provider.

Many have told us how they still struggle with trauma from what they faced while under its care – some have formal diagnosis of PTSD due to it.

Sky News understands that 58 former patients are now taking legal action against around 30 psychiatrists who worked at various Huntercombe hospitals over two decades.

Sky News investigations into Huntercombe Group units:
‘Blood on the walls’: Shocking truth of life on mental health unit
Thirty ex-patients reached out to Sky News after initial probe
‘Inadequate staffing’ at hospital ‘put young people at risk’

A statement from Active Care Group said: “We extend our heartfelt condolences to Ruth’s family, friends, and all those affected by her passing. We deeply regret the tragic event that occurred, and we are truly sorry for the distress this has caused

“We directed significant investment in staff training, recruitment, and the hospital estate, spending more than £3m on the physical environment alone over an 18-month period.

“Despite these efforts, by early 2023, it became clear that achieving the high standards of care that reflect our core values would not be possible within an acceptable timescale.

“In recent years, we have made significant improvements to the quality and safety in all of our services.

“We are regrettably unable to comment on historical allegations relating to care provided under previous ownership or management.”

Elli Investments Group, owners of The Huntercombe Group until 2021, previously told us: “We regret that these hospitals and specialist care services, which were owned and independently managed by The Huntercombe Group, failed to meet the expected standards for high-quality care.”

‘Our lives are darker without her’

Ruth’s parents, who are both doctors working in the NHS, are calling on the government to close what they see as the “legal loophole” in the powers the CQC has to prosecute.

They also want to strengthen safeguards for children in mental health units by ensuring parents have visitation rights to their children.

“Ruth died under the care of the state,” her mother, Kate, said.

“We very much hope that secretaries of state for health and for mental health are listening to Ruth’s story, and that they can use this opportunity, particularly to make sure that children have unrestricted access to their families.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Our deepest sympathies are with Ruth’s family and friends. This is a shocking case and it is clear care at Huntercombe Hospital fell far below the standards we expect.

“Where appropriate the CQC can bring prosecutions where a provider has failed to comply with a warning notice, and we are clear that those that harm patients through negligence or mismanagement should face the consequences.

“We are investing £75m this year to reduce inappropriate out of area placements, increasing family involvement in patient care through the Mental Health Bill, and driving up standards through the 10 Year Plan so everyone receives the level of care they deserve.”

Ruth’s parents are both struggling with the lack of accountability over their daughter’s death, especially the decision by the CQC not to prosecute.

“We don’t have faith the system will make sure changes happen,” Mark said.

“Governance has been completely ineffectual. Until there is real accountability, nothing will stop this happening again.”

Kate added: “Our lives are darker without her. Ruth was unique and wonderful. She kept us wholehearted in everything we did. Now she’s gone.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

World

US blocks Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials from United Nations’ annual meeting in New York

Published

4 hours ago

August 30, 2025

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US blocks Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials from United Nations' annual meeting in New York

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials have been blocked from attending September’s annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio has revoked the US visas of delegates from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and denied others from applying for one.

It is the latest step by Donald Trump’s administration to target Palestinians with visa restrictions, and follows the suspension of a programme to allow injured children from Gaza to receive treatment in the US.

“It is in our national security interests to hold the PLO and PA accountable for not complying with their commitments, and for undermining the prospects for peace,” a statement from the US State Department said.

It added that, to be considered partners for peace, both groups “must consistently repudiate terrorism, and end incitement to terrorism in education, as required by US law and as promised by the PLO”.

Offensive will cause ‘intolerable deaths’

Several US allies, including France, Malta, and Australia have announced plans to recognise Palestine as a state at September’s United Nations General Assembly. Canada and the UK will too, unless Israel meets certain conditions.

Israel declared Gaza’s largest city a dangerous combat zone on Friday.

The army launched a planned offensive that has drawn international condemnation.

Foreign ministers from Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Slovenia and Spain released a joint statement saying the military operations in Gaza City will cause “intolerable deaths of innocent Palestinian civilians”.

Gaza latest: Israel’s Gaza City offensive condemned

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering in Gaza City while enduring famine.

The Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Riyad Mansour, said Mr Abbas had planned to lead the delegation to the UN meetings and was expected to address the general assembly at the general debate, which begins on 23 September.

He was also expected to attend a high-level meeting co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia on 22 September about a two-state solution, a broad idea involving Israel coexisting with an independent Palestinian state.

The State of Palestine is an observer member of the UN, meaning it can speak at meetings but not vote on resolutions.

US decision ‘contravenes international law’

The Palestinian Authority “expressed its deep regret and astonishment” at the visa decision, calling it “a violation of US commitments” as the host of the UN, and claiming it “contravenes international law”.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the world body would be seeking clarification in the “hope that this will be resolved”.

The State Department said that the Palestinian Authority’s mission to the UN, comprising officials who are permanently based there, would not be included in the restrictions.

Under a 1947 UN agreement, the US is generally required to allow access for foreign diplomats to the UN in New York.

But Washington has said it can deny visas for security, extremism and foreign policy reasons.

The death toll in Gaza has now risen to 63,025, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

It also reported five more malnutrition-related deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number during the war to 322, with 121 of them children.

US

US blocks Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials from United Nations’ annual meeting in New York

Published

4 hours ago

August 30, 2025

admin

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials have been blocked from attending September’s annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio has revoked the US visas of delegates from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and denied others from applying for one.

Offensive will cause ‘intolerable deaths’

Israel declared Gaza’s largest city a dangerous combat zone on Friday.

The army launched a planned offensive that has drawn international condemnation.

Gaza latest: Israel’s Gaza City offensive condemned

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering in Gaza City while enduring famine.

The State of Palestine is an observer member of the UN, meaning it can speak at meetings but not vote on resolutions.

US decision ‘contravenes international law’

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the world body would be seeking clarification in the “hope that this will be resolved”.

The State Department said that the Palestinian Authority’s mission to the UN, comprising officials who are permanently based there, would not be included in the restrictions.

Under a 1947 UN agreement, the US is generally required to allow access for foreign diplomats to the UN in New York.

But Washington has said it can deny visas for security, extremism and foreign policy reasons.

The death toll in Gaza has now risen to 63,025, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

It also reported five more malnutrition-related deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number during the war to 322, with 121 of them children.