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The escalating confrontation between the parties over the federal budget rests on a fundamental paradox: The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is now more likely than Democrats to represent districts filled with older and lower-income voters who rely on the social programs that the GOP wants to cut.

A much larger share of Republican than Democratic House members represent districts where seniors exceed their share of the national population, census data show. Republicans are also more likely to represent districts where the median income trails the national level, or the proportion of people without health insurance is greater than in the nation overall.

House Republicans, in their ongoing struggle with President Joe Biden over raising the debt ceiling, have signaled they will push for sweeping reductions in domestic social programs, likely including Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, the principal federal programs providing health care for working-age adults. And while House Republicans appear to have backed away from pursuing reductions in Social Security and Medicare, the conservative Republican Study Committee has set a long-term goal of cutting and partially privatizing both programs.

Ruy Teixeira: Democrats long goodbye to the working class

The fact that so many House Republicans feel safe advancing these proposals in districts with such extensive economic need testifies to the power of what Ive called the class inversion in American politics: the growing tendency of voters to divide between the parties based on cultural attitudes, rather than class interests. That dynamic has simultaneously allowed House Democrats to gain in more socially liberal, affluent, metropolitan areas and House Republicans to consolidate their hold over more culturally conservative, economically hardscrabble, nonurban areas.

Yesterday, Biden forcefully reiterated his charge that Republicans would shred the safety net at a White House ceremony commemorating the 13th anniversary of Barack Obama signing the ACA into law. An extended battle between House Republicans and Biden this spring and summer over the safety net may test whether any economic argument can allow Democrats to break through the cultural resistance that fortifies Republican control of these downscale districts.

While Republicans have gained in some areas primarily around culturally and racially infused disputes such as those over crime and immigration, a struggle over spending priorities will inevitably highlight that their policies on these bread-and-butter issues remain diametrically opposed to the economic interest of much of their base, Paul Pierson, a political scientist at UC Berkeley and a co-author of Let Them Eat Tweets, told me.

As I reported last week, to understand the social and economic characteristics of the House seats held by each party, Jeffer Giang and Justin Scoggins of the Equity Research Institute at the University of Southern California analyzed five-year summary results through 2020 from the Census Bureaus American Community Survey.

That analysis inverts many traditional assumptions, even within the parties themselves, about whose voters rely on the social safety net. There has been a massive transformation of the coalitions, Manuel Pastor, a sociology professor at USC and the director of the Equity Research Institute, told me.

Democrats, who led the legislative efforts to create Social Security under Franklin D. Roosevelt and Medicare under Lyndon B. Johnson, have long thought of themselves as the party of seniors. But today, Republicans represent 141 of the 215 House districts where adults aged 65 and older exceed their 16 percent share of the national population, while Democrats hold a clear majority of seats in districts with fewer seniors than average, according to the Equity Research Institute analysis.

Republicans now also control most of the House seats in which the median income trails the national level of nearly $65,000 annually. Republicans hold 152 of the 237 seats in that category. Democrats, in turn, hold 128 of the 198 seats where the median income exceeds the national level.

Perhaps most surprisingly, Republicans hold a clear majority of the districts where the share of residents who lack health insurance exceeds the national level of 9 percent. The GOP now holds 110 of those 185 highly uninsured seats. Democrats control 138 of the 250 seats with fewer uninsured than the nation overall.

Equally revealing is to examine what share of each partys total strength in the House these seats represent. From that angle, the parties offer almost mirror-image profiles. About two-thirds of House Republicans represent districts with more seniors than the national level, while about two-thirds of Democrats represent districts with fewer of them. Roughly two-thirds of House Republicans represent districts where the median income lags the national level, while three-fifths of Democrats hold seats where incomes surpass it. Almost exactly half of Republicans, compared with only about one-third of Democrats, represent districts with an unusually high concentration of people lacking health insurance.

The economically vulnerable districts that each side holds also present a stark demographic contrast. Low-income Democratic seats tend to be in urban centers with large nonwhite populations. In more than three-fourths of the Democratic seats with a median income below the national level, and in virtually all of the Democratic districts with more uninsured people than average, the minority share of the population is also higher than the national average.

Some low-income Republican districts also have large minority populations, particularly in Texas and Florida, where the GOP has made inroads into culturally conservative Latino communities. But mostly the low-income GOP seats are centered on working-class white areas, many of them outside metropolitan areas.

Read: Are Latinos really realigning toward Republicans?

In the 141 seats Republicans hold with more seniors than the national average, white residents exceed their national share of the population in 127 of them. Likewise, white residents surpass their share of the national population in more than four-fifths of the Republican-held districts that lag the median income. Nearly half of House Republicans represent districts in which all three things are true: They have more seniors than the national level, more white residents than the national level, and a lower median income than the national level.

All of this reflects how working-class white voters, many of them financially squeezed, have become the unquestioned foundation of the GOPs coalition at every level, from the House through presidential elections.

Biden is laying siege to those voters with a strategy of deemphasizing cultural disputes and stressing kitchen-table economic benefits. Democrats really are making appeals to these districts in a big way, Pierson said. Most of that infrastructure and climate [spending] is going to go on in red states. There really is a big effort to say, We are going to use policy to try to make our electoral coalition bigger.

A key element of Bidens courtship of these voters is defending the social safety net, especially Social Security and Medicare. The presidents repeated rejection of reductions in those programs, combined with former President Donald Trumps opposition to potential cuts, has resulted in the most obvious concession by House Republicans to their evolving electoral base: public declarations by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other leaders that they will not target Social Security and Medicare in the cutbacks they are demanding for raising the federal debt limit this summer.

Republicans hope that exempting Social Security and Medicare will dampen any backlash to their deficit-reduction plans in economically vulnerable districts. But protecting those programs, as well as defense, from cutswhile also precluding tax increaseswill force the House Republicans to propose severe reductions in other domestic programs that many voters in blu-collar Republican districts rely on, potentially including Medicaid, the ACA, and food and housing assistance.

Will a Republican push for severe reductions in those programs provide Democrats with an opening in such places? Robert J. Blendon, a professor emeritus at the Harvard School of Public Health, is dubious. Although these areas have extensive needs, he told me, the residents voting Republican in them are generally skeptical of social-welfare spending apart from Social Security and Medicare. We are dealing with a set of values here, which has a distrust of government and a sense that anyone should have to work to get any sort of low-income benefit, Blendon said. The people voting Republican in those districts dont see it as important [that] government provides those benefits.

The one risk for Republicans in such areas, he noted, would be if voters conclude that they present a genuine threat to Social Security and Medicare. Even most conservative voters strongly favor those programs, Blendon told me, primarily because they view them as an earned benefit that workers have contributed to during their lifetime. If the GOP seriously pushes ideas such as converting Medicare into a voucher program, or diverting part of Social Security revenue into private investment accounts, then in districts with a lot of older people, they are going to get in trouble, Blendon said.

Pastor, the director of the Equity Research Institute, also believes that current Democratic arguments targeted at older and non-college-educated white voters that they are voting against their interests economically are unlikely to succeed. The problem, he says, is that those arguments dont directly address the way many voters also define their interests to include cultural and racial dynamics. Because Republican strength in these older, predominantly white, financially stressed districts is rooted largely in the alienation of white voters who fear the country is shifting on them demographically, Democrats must ultimately make a more explicit case to those voters about how all Americans can benefit from a more diverse and inclusive society, Pastor said. The Democratic Party needs to figure out how to talk more effectively about race and racismnot try to ignore it, but try to inoculate people against it, he said.

Read: The four quadrants of American politics

Bryan Bennett, the senior director of polling and analytics at the Hub Project, notes that the majority of voters, including seniors, support Bidens approach to preserving the safety net for retirees: In a recent national survey, his group found that voters were nearly four times as likely to support stabilizing Medicare by raising taxes on the affluent rather than cutting benefits. There is quite a bit of economically populist appetite even among Republicans for raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, Bennett told me. Even Medicaid, once seen as a program for the poor, now draws widespread support across party lines, he said.

Yet Bennett, too, is cautious about predicting that Republican efforts to cut the safety net will hurt them in districts that highly depend on it. The GOP, Bennett said, is gambling that it can cut programs that benefit the partys lower-income white base and still prevent those voters from defecting to Democrats by stressing other issues like immigration and the culture war.

If Republicans face any internal resistance to sharp cuts in the safety net, in fact, it may be more likely to come from their members who represent socially liberal white-collar districts that dont rely as much on these programs than from their members who represent the culturally conservative blue-collar districts that do depend on them. The Republicans who seem least concerned about targeting the social safety net are those who represent the places that need those programs the most. Thats another telling measure of just how fully the concrete has settled beneath a modern political alignment that revolves more around culture than class.

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Sources: Tkachuk dodges discipline, will play G4

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Sources: Tkachuk dodges discipline, will play G4

Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk will not receive supplemental discipline for his hit on Tampa Bay Lightning forward Jake Geuntzel in Game 3, sources told ESPN on Sunday.

Tkachuk’s hit, in the third period of his team’s 5-1 loss, received a five-minute major. According to sources, the NHL Department of Player Safety determined that was enough, considering Guentzel had recently touched the puck and Tkachuk didn’t make contact with Guentzel’s head.

The department also believed that the force in which Tkachuk hit Guentzel was far lesser than the hit Tampa’s Brandon Hagel made on Florida captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2, which earned Hagel a one game suspension.

The plays led both coaches to trade jabs in the media. After Barkov went down in Game 2, Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice said: “The only players we hit are the one with pucks.”

Barkov missed the end of the third period, but played in Game 3. Game 4 is Monday at Amerant Bank Arena.

At his postgame press conference, following Tkachuk’s hit on Guentzel, Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper deadpanned the exact same line as Maurice.

Tkachuk leads the series in scoring with three goals and an assist through three games. Guentzel has two goals and two assists for Tampa Bay.

The Battle of Florida is living up to the billing as one of the most contentious rivalries in hockey; either Tampa or Florida has made it to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the last five seasons.

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Jets’ Hellebuyck allows five goals, pulled again

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Jets' Hellebuyck allows five goals, pulled again

ST. LOUIS — Connor Hellebuyck, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner who is among the favorites to win the award again this season, allowed five goals before being pulled early in the third period as the top-seeded Winnipeg Jets fell to the St. Louis Blues 5-1 on Sunday, evening their Western Conference first-round series at 2-2.

Hellebuyck has now been pulled in back-to-back games in St. Louis, during which he has allowed 11 goals and posted a paltry .744 save percentage. Eric Comrie made five saves in relief of Hellebuyck on Sunday, but the game had long been decided by that point.

His performances have not only energized the Blues, the No. 8 seed who lost the first two games of this series, but their fans, as well. In the third period Sunday, the St. Louis faithful chanted, “We want Connor” as he sat on the Jets’ bench.

Brayden Schenn, Tyler Tucker and Justin Faulk each scored second-period goals to give the Blues a 4-1 lead, and Robert Thomas scored 2:01 into the third, ending Hellebuyck’s day.

Across the ice, St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington, who defeated Hellebuyck in the 4 Nations Face-Off final in February when Canada outlasted Team USA, made 30 saves in the win. The Blues have now won 14 straight regular-season and playoff games at home dating back to Feb. 23.

“The last 10 minutes, we gave up three goals,” Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said of the second period. “Those are coverage goals, and those are situations that we usually handle pretty well. They are finding ways to get that puck in the net.”

Kyle Connor scored for the Jets, staking the road team to a 1-0 lead, but the powerful Winnipeg offense that helped the club win the Presidents’ Trophy was never heard from again.

“This is obviously not what we wanted,” Winnipeg forward Mark Scheifele said. “But it’s a best two-of-three series now.”

Hellebuyck has been pulled in consecutive games only one other time in his career, and given the Jets lost in Round 1 last season to the Colorado Avalanche, the Winnipeg goaltending situation figures to be a storyline the rest of this series.

“At the end of the day, you know what, they took advantage of home ice,” Arniel said of the Blues. “We’ve put ourselves in this position. And our best players have to be better than their best players.”

The Jets and Blues return to Winnipeg for Game 5 on Wednesday night.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Williams out as Yanks’ closer; Weaver to get a shot

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Williams out as Yanks' closer; Weaver to get a shot

NEW YORK — Devin Williams has been removed from his role as New York Yankees closer “for right now,” manager Aaron Boone said Sunday.

The move comes two days after Williams endured another rough outing and was booed off the mound at Yankee Stadium in a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 11.25 ERA with career-worst marks in strikeout rate (18.2%), whiff rate (24.1%) and walk rate (15.9%) in eight innings across 10 appearances this season.

“He’s still got everything to be great, right? This is a guy that is in the prime of his career and he’s just going through it a little bit,” said Boone, who informed Williams of the decision Saturday. “I tell our players all the time, you make a career that’s long enough and you’re going to face some challenging moments. You’re going to face some adversity along the way. And good news for Devin is he’s got everything to get through this and come out better on the other side. And that’s my expectation.

“But, for right now, I think it’s best for everyone that we pull him out of that role and try and start building some good rhythm and confidence and momentum and fully expect him to be a central figure for us moving forward.”

Boone said setup man Luke Weaver, who has a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings pitched this season, will assume “a lot of” the team’s save opportunities. Boone maintained he is open to using Weaver in high-leverage spots earlier in games and other relievers to close.

As for Williams, Boone said he won’t have a specific role — whether pitching in low-leverage situations or tight spots just earlier in games — as he seeks to re-establish himself for a team with the ninth-best bullpen ERA in the majors despite his struggles.

The key will be for Williams to avoid falling behind in counts as he did against the three hitters he faced Friday, leading to the home crowd again showering him with loud boos while adding a “We want Weaver!” chant.

Williams wound up surrendering two runs on three hits without recording an out to blow the save and continue his alarming troubles.

The Yankees hope his changeup-fastball mix will baffle hitters again and allow him to return to the pitcher he has been for his entire career.

“Count leverage is a big thing for pitchers, understandably, as it is for hitters,” Boone said. “And I think he’s been behind a number of times. He’s also had it not bounce his way in a number of these games where it’s gotten away.

“But I think the biggest thing for a guy as good as he is, as good as his track record is, and where he is from an age standpoint in the prime of his career, it’s just about, I think, man, having it start to click, getting in a good rhythm and then off we go.”

The Yankees acquired Williams in December to replace Clay Holmes as the club’s closer with one year of team control remaining before reaching free agency. The trade, which sent left-hander Nestor Cortes and prospect Corbin Durbin to Milwaukee, figured to cement the Yankees’ bullpen as one of the best in the majors.

Williams established himself as one of baseball’s premier relievers over six seasons with the Brewers using a singular screwball-like changeup known as “The Airbender.” The right-hander posted a 1.83 ERA with a 39.4% across 241 appearances in Milwaukee. He won the 2020 National League Rookie of the Year Award as a setup man for Josh Hader and made two All-Star teams. His status was undisputed.

But Williams’ Yankees tenure has been turbulent from start. After emerging as the catalyst to have the Yankees’ decades-long no-beard policy changed during spring training, he was booed at Yankee Stadium during his sloppy debut on Opening Day against his former club.

Boone acknowledged the fans’ treatment could have an impact on Williams’ performance.

“I think there’s that adjustment,” Boone said. “Devin’s really been nothing but successful at the big-league level. He’s dominated. So, that’s all part of it. That’s what I talk to these guys all the time about is like, again, you’re going to go through a tough moment. When I came here in 2003 at the trade deadline, Mariano Rivera was getting booed in August. I couldn’t believe it. And then he’s still Mariano Rivera, recoups and goes on to do what he does.

“So, I’m sure there’s some shock to that and some … getting settled. He’s with a new team in a new environment. That’s all part of it. But my reminder to him is you have all the equipment to do this at an elite level and that’s still a reality.”

In other developments, Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year Award winner, started his throwing program Sunday. He has been sidelined since Feb. 28 because of a high-grade lat strain, is on the 60-day injured list and is projected to return in June at the earliest.

Also, right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga, who is returning from internal brace elbow surgery, started his rehab assignment for Class A Tampa on Saturday and threw 11 pitches with one strikeout in a clean inning. He could rejoin the Yankees as early as late May.

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