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close video Fed is going to keep raising rates, Jim Rickards warns

Strategic Intelligence editor Jim Rickards discusses the Fed’s decision to raise rates by 25 basis points, arguing that policymakers are “determined” to get inflation under control.

The worst banking crisis since the Great Recession could severely tighten credit for U.S. households and businesses, taking a toll on economic growth.

The turmoil that has engulfed the financial system following the stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank has raised the prospect among economists that lending standards will become drastically more restrictive in coming months. 

"Tighter conditions can happen and occur outside the official tightening of the Fed funds rate. There are so many other variables," Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, told FOX Business. "A banking crisis, in essence, can tighten conditions… I think it’s fair to say that the current banking crisis could also be an equivalent to say, a 50-basis-point rate hike."

During a credit crunch, banks significantly raise their lending standards, making it difficult to acquire a loan. Borrowers may have to agree to more stringent terms like high interest rates as banks try to reduce the financial risk on their end. Fewer loans, in turn, would lead to less big-ticket spending by consumers and businesses. 

FUND MANAGERS WORRY SYSTEMIC CREDIT CRUNCH COULD CRASH US MARKETS

Employees walk outside the shuttered Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) headquarters on March 10, 2023, in Santa Clara, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY-Parthenon, said he thinks tighter credit will constrain "business investment, employment growth and consumer spending in the coming months." 

While that could help the Federal Reserve in its fight to tamp down stubbornly high inflation, it also raises the risk of a recession this year. 

"The odds of a recession have risen due to heightened financial market volatility, tightening credit conditions and economic uncertainty," Daco said. "While labor market conditions still look relatively resilient, an abrupt shift in sentiment along with a rapid tightening of financial conditions could push the economy into a recession with businesses and consumers retrenching."

JEROME POWELL'S FAVORITE BOND MARKET GAUGE FLASHES RECESSION WARNING SIGN

Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged during the Fed's two-day meeting last week that upheaval within the financial sector could tighten credit for American households. He suggested that stricter lending standards could have a similar effect on inflation that a rate increase can.

"Such a tightening in financial conditions would work in the same direction as rate tightening," Powell said. "You can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike or perhaps more than that."

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during at a news conference in Washington, D.C., Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

His comments came shortly after policymakers delivered another quarter-percentage point rate hike, lifting the benchmark funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest since 2007. It marked the ninth consecutive rate increase aimed at combating high inflation.

Fed officials are in the midst of the most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s as they try to crush inflation still running about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average. Before the spate of bank collapses earlier in March, the Fed had considered raising rates by a half-percentage point in the face of strong economic data, Powell said Wednesday.

But fears over a broader financial crisis complicated the Fed's efforts, because the rapid rise in interest rates played a direct role in the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Increasing interest rates threatens to exacerbate instability within the financial system. Powell said it is too soon to say how banking sector stress will affect the broader economy.

YELLEN SAYS US WILL TAKE MORE ACTION TO PROTECT SMALLER BANKS IF NEEDED

"Financial conditions seem to have tightened and probably by more than the traditional indexes say," he said. "The question for us, though, is how significant will that be – what will be the extent of it, and what will be the duration of it?

 "We’ll be looking to see how serious is this and does it look like it’s going to be sustained. And, if it is, it could easily have a significant macroeconomic effect, and we would factor that into our policy decisions."

Pedestrians near the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, D.C., Dec. 30, 2022. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

SVB largely catered to tech companies, venture capital firms and high net worth individuals who were pulling cash at a rapid pace as the once red-hot tech sector cooled. When the bank announced it was trying to raise capital from investors and that it would take a $1.3 billion loss on long-term securities that had tumbled in value amid higher interest rates, depositors panicked and a bank run ensued.

Within days, U.S. regulators took extraordinary steps to contain the fallout from the bank's collapse and shore up wavering confidence in the financial system, including protecting all deposits at the two institutions – even those holding funds that exceeded the FDIC's $250,000 insurance limit. 

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The Fed also launched a new emergency backstop for lenders to help them meet deposit withdrawals under favorable terms. 

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Woman’s body found in car boot in east London – as murder investigation launched by two police forces

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Woman's body found in car boot in east London - as murder investigation launched by two police forces

A murder investigation has been launched after a woman’s body was found in the boot of a car in east London.

Detectives said a murder inquiry has been launched into the “suspicious” discovery in Ilford.

The woman, who has not been named but is from Corby in Northamptonshire, may have been the victim of a “targeted incident”, police say.

“Fast track” enquiries were made after the force was contacted by a member of the public with concerns about the welfare of the woman.

This led to the discovery of a body inside a car boot.

Northamptonshire Police said: “The investigation is ongoing and there will be continued police activity over the weekend in various locations, including Corby and Ilford.

“Although we believe that this was a targeted incident and there is no wider risk to members of the public, extra patrols will be taking place in Corby in the coming days for reassurance purposes.”

Detectives from the East Midlands Special Operations Unit major crime team and the Metropolitan Police are working on the case, to try and establish the circumstances that led to the woman’s death.

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Police investigating criminal offence after Daily Telegraph columnist ‘dumbfounded’ by social media post probe

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Police investigating criminal offence after Daily Telegraph columnist 'dumbfounded' by social media post probe

Essex Police say they are investigating an alleged criminal offence of inciting racial hatred, after Daily Telegraph columnist Allison Pearson said she was “dumbfounded and upset” when officers knocked on her door last Sunday.

Ms Pearson revealed she was told she was being investigated over a year-old deleted post online.

She said she wasn’t informed which post had been reported, but suggested it could have been related to the 7 October attacks in Israel or pro-Palestine marches.

She claimed the officers told her she was being investigated for a NCHI (a none crime hate incident) an incident involving an act which is perceived to be motivated by hostility or prejudice towards persons with a particular characteristic, but is not illegal.

NCHI reports have long been controversial, with many citing free speech concerns, and Ms Pearson’s account of the police visit has led to widespread support from Conservatives and online commentators, including Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

But an Essex Police spokesperson has told Sky News its investigation was never for an NCHI, and that the matter was always being treated as an investigation into an alleged criminal offence of inciting racial hatred.

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Speaking on her Planet Normal podcast on Wednesday, Ms Pearson said she found the visit “chilling”.

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“I was dumbfounded, upset, it’s not very nice,” she said. “I was in my dressing gown on the step of the house, these two coppers were there just outside the door.

“There were people gathering for the Remembrance Day parade so there were people watching from the other side of the road.

“Whatever I did or didn’t tweet, if somebody found it offensive, that to me is still not a reason for two policemen to come to my house on a Sunday morning.

“You know, they don’t do that for burglars, do they? We know policing is under-resourced and they are unable to attend often quite serious crimes.

“This was the most extraordinary overreach and state intrusion into my private life and I don’t think I did anything wrong and I think their response was outrageous.”

Read more:
Ex-Tory MP feels ‘enormous guilt’ over Westminster scandal
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In a statement, Essex Police said: “Officers attended an address in Essex and invited a woman to come to a voluntary interview.

“They said it related to an investigation into an alleged offence of inciting racial hatred, linked to a post on social media.

“For clarity: a complaint of a possible criminal offence was made to the police and this is why we called; to arrange an interview.

“Everyone was polite and professional throughout the brief conversation.”

They said an officer told Ms Pearson: “It’s gone down as an incident or offence of potentially inciting racial hatred online. That would be the offence.”

Essex Police say they have complained to the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) over what they call “false reporting” regarding the ongoing investigation.

What is a non-crime hate incident?

Non-crime hate incidents (NCHIs) are defined by the government as an incident involving an act which is perceived to be motivated by hostility or prejudice towards persons with a particular characteristic.

Those characteristics can include race, religion, disability, sexual orientation and transgender identity.

These incidents do not amount to a criminal offence, but they are reported to police and recorded in case they escalate into more serious harm or indicate heightened community tensions.

It can be reported to police by anyone, whether they are directly affected by the alleged NCHI or not.

Not all incidents reported to police are recorded as NCHIs.

They need to meet this threshold, according to the government: “A single distinct event or occurrence which disturbs an individual’s, group’s or community’s quality of life or causes them concern.”

Furthermore, the personal data of the person reported should only be included in the reports if the incident in question presents a “real risk of significant harm” to individuals or groups with a particular characteristic and/or a real risk that a future criminal offence may take place against them.

The origins of NCHI recordings stem from the murder of Stephen Lawrence in 1993, who was murdered by a gang of racist attackers in southeast London as he ran to catch a bus.

An inquiry into his death in 1999 called for the creation of “a comprehensive system of reporting and recording of all racist incidents and crimes”.

The first guidance on NCHI was published in 2005, but there have been updates over the years in response to scrutiny over protecting free speech.

The latest guidance was published in June 2023, when an updated code of practice set out a “common sense and proportionate approach that should be adopted by the police”.

The guidance, introduced under the Conservative government, clarified “that debate, humour, satire and personally-held views which are lawfully expressed are not, by themselves, grounds for the recording of an NCHI” and that an NCHI should not be recorded if police deem a report to be “trivial” or “irrational”.

In an interview with The Telegraph published yesterday, Kemi Badenoch said police visiting a journalist over a social media post was “absolutely wrong” and that “we need to look at the laws around non-crime hate incidents”.

“There has been a long-running problem with people not taking free speech seriously,” she said.

She challenged the prime minister to review the laws, saying: “Keir Starmer says he is someone who believes in these things. Now he needs to actually show that he does believe it. All we’ve seen from him is the opposite.”

Ms Badenoch added: “We need to stop this behaviour of people wasting police time on trivial incidents because they don’t like something, as if they’re in a nursery.

“It’s like children reporting each other. And I think that in certain cases, the police do it because they’re afraid that if they don’t do it, they will also be accused of not taking these issues seriously.”

Essex Police said the officers went to the address to invite Ms Pearson to attend a voluntary interview as part of their investigation, which was passed to them by another force.

“The report relates to a social media post which was subsequently removed,” the statement read.

“An investigation is now being carried out under Section 17 of the Public Order Act.”

Essex Police also said they made attempts to contact Ms Pearson before the visit.

Other prominent Conservative voices such as Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Chris Philp have also leapt to Ms Pearson’s defence online, as has X owner Elon Musk, who quoted a post about the incident and said: “This needs to stop.”

Police commentator Graham Wettone told Sky News the police are “duty bound to investigate allegations of crime”.

“They’ve had an allegation of crime made there,” he said. “They will investigate it. If at the end of this they decide that no criminal offence has been committed – and we’re not at that stage yet – then it can still be recorded as a none crime hate incident.”

The police, he said, are duty bound to keep a record of none crime hate incidents.

“Parliament said they want the police to do this, to investigate and record incidents like this. So they are doing exactly what parliament and society asked them to do, and they are getting criticism for doing what people want.”

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Sir Keir Starmer vows to defend budget decisions ‘all day long’ as farmers slam ‘disrespectful’ PM

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Sir Keir Starmer vows to defend budget decisions 'all day long' as farmers slam 'disrespectful' PM

Sir Keir Starmer has said he will defend the decisions made in the budget “all day long” amid anger from farmers over inheritance tax changes.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced last month in her key speech that from April 2026, farms worth more than £1m will face an inheritance tax rate of 20%, rather than the standard 40% applied to other land and property.

The announcement has sparked anger among farmers who argue this will mean higher food prices, lower food production and having to sell off land to pay for the tax.

Sir Keir Starmer

Sir Keir defended the budget as he gave his first speech as prime minister at the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales, where farmers have been holding a tractor protest outside.

Sir Keir admitted: “We’ve taken some extremely tough decisions on tax.”

He said: “I will defend facing up to the harsh light of fiscal reality. I will defend the tough decisions that were necessary to stabilise our economy.

“And I will defend protecting the payslips of working people, fixing the foundations of our economy, and investing in the future of Britain and the future of Wales. Finally, turning the page on austerity once and for all.”

He also said the budget allocation for Wales was a “record figure” – some £21bn for next year – an extra £1.7bn through the Barnett Formula, as he hailed a “path of change” with Labour governments in Wales and Westminster.

And he confirmed a £160m investment zone in Wrexham and Flintshire will be going live in 2025.

‘PM should have addressed the protesters’

Among the hundreds of farmers demonstrating was Gareth Wyn Jones, who told Sky News it was “disrespectful” that the prime minister did not mention farmers in his speech.

He said “so many people have come here to air their frustrations. He (Starmer) had an opportunity to address the crowd. Even if he was booed he should have been man enough to come out and talk to the people”.

He said farmers planned to deliver Sir Keir a letter which begins with “don’t bite the hand that feeds you”.

Farmers' tractor protest outside the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales
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Farmers’ tractor protest outside the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales

Mr Wyn Jones told Sky News the government was “destroying” an industry that was already struggling.

“They’re destroying an industry that’s already on its knees and struggling, absolutely struggling, mentally, emotionally and physically. We need government support not more hindrance so we can produce food to feed the nation.”

He said inheritance tax changes will result in farmers increasing the price of food: “The poorer people in society aren’t going to be able to afford good, healthy, nutritious British food, so we have to push this to government for them to understand that enough is enough, the farmers can’t take any more of what they’re throwing at us.”

Mr Wyn Jones disputed the government’s estimation that only 500 farming estates in the UK will be affected by the inheritance tax changes.

“Look, a lot of farmers in this country are in their 70s and 80s, they haven’t handed their farms down because that’s the way it’s always been, they’ve always known there was never going to be inheritance tax.”

On Friday, Sir Keir addressed farmers’ concerns, saying: “I know some farmers are anxious about the inheritance tax rules that we brought in two weeks ago.

“What I would say about that is, once you add the £1m for the farmland to the £1m that is exempt for your spouse, for most couples with a farm wanting to hand on to their children, it’s £3m before anybody pays a penny in inheritance tax.”

Read more:
Ex-Labour adviser suggests doing to farms ‘what Thatcher did to coal mines’
Farmers ‘could block ports and disrupt food supply’

Welsh farmer Gareth Wyn Jones
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Welsh farmer Gareth Wyn Jones

Ministers said the move will not affect small farms and is aimed at targeting wealthy landowners who buy up farmland to avoid paying inheritance tax.

But analysis this week said a typical family farm would have to put 159% of annual profits into paying the new inheritance tax every year for a decade and could have to sell 20% of their land.

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The Country and Land Business Association (CLA), which represents owners of rural land, property and businesses in England and Wales, found a typical 200-acre farm owned by one person with an expected profit of £27,300 would face a £435,000 inheritance tax bill.

The plan says families can spread the inheritance tax payments over 10 years, but the CLA found this would require an average farm to allocate 159% of its profits each year for a decade.

To pay that, successors could be forced to sell 20% of their land, the analysis found.

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