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As the Twitter handle of the Kobeissi Letter discussed the ramification of the banking crisis, Tesla CEO Elon Musk highlighted a serious crisis waiting in the wings.

What Happened: More than $2.5 trillion in commercial real-estate debt is set to mature over the next five years, the most than any five-year period in history, "Kobeissi Letter," which publishes a weekly commentary on the global capital markets, tweeted.

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While rates have more than doubled and occupancy rates of commercial real estate remain low at 60-70%, refinancing these loans could be incredibly expensive, likely leading to the next major crisis, it said.

And worse is the fact that about 70% of commercial real estate loans are owned by small banks, it added.

Rapidly rising rates are teaching everyone a valuable lesson. Theres no such thing as free lunch.

The Fed apparently is having a part as the banking crisis will likely play out as a commercial real-estate crisis, it said.

Musk Chimes In: Commenting on the tweet, Musk said this is by far the most serious looming issue, adding in that mortgages could be too.

This is by far the most serious looming issue. Mortgages too. Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 27, 2023

This is not the first time the billionaire is offering his take on the housing market. In mid-2022, he said predatory lenders were severely wounded or didnt survive as the house prices collapsed, referring to the housing market collapse of 2006.

Fed Needs To Act: The looming crisis is potentially a product of the Fed that cut interest rates too quickly and then tried to play catch up, "Kobeissi Letter" said in a follow-up tweet.

To mitigate this risk, the Fed needs to cut rates ASAP and the government needs to back all deposits temporarily.

Morgan Stanley analyst said in a recent podcast that affordability is challenged and housing supply is very tight, although the two are no longer getting even more stretched.

"In other words, we don't see a catalyst for sales volumes to inflect higher from here, but we also don't think the ingredients are in place for large month-over-month declines to continue either."

Sales are leaning toward bottoming right now and volumes will likely be weak in the first half of 2023, they said. "We also want to emphasize that this will still result in significant year-over-year declines, given how strong the first half of 2022 was," the firm added.

President Joe Biden said Friday that banks are in pretty good shape and there is no imminent danger of any of them exploding.

Photo: Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

Read Next:Biden Says 'Banks In Pretty Good Shape' Even As Banking Crisis Plays Out: 'Don't See Anything … That's About To Explode'

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Business

ICG takes off with £200m deal for Exeter and Bournemouth airports

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ICG takes off with £200m deal for Exeter and Bournemouth airports

The London-listed investment group ICG is closing in on a £200m deal to buy three of Britain’s biggest regional airports.

Sky News has learnt that ICG is expected to sign a formal agreement to buy Bournemouth, Exeter and Norwich airports later this month.

The trio of sites collectively serve just over 2 million passengers annually.

ICG is buying the airports from Rigby Group, a privately owned conglomerate which has interests in the hotels, software and technology sectors.

Exeter acted as the hub for Flybe, the regional carrier which collapsed in the aftermath of the pandemic.

The deal will come amid a frenzy of activity involving Britain’s major airports as infrastructure investors seek to exploit a recovery in their valuations.

AviAlliance, which is owned by the Canadian pension fund PSP Investments, agreed to buy the parent company of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton airports for £1.55bn last year.

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London City Airport’s shareholder base has just been shaken up with a deal which saw Australia’s Macquarie take a large stake.

French investor Ardian has increased its investment in Heathrow Airport as the UK’s biggest aviation hub proposes an expansion that will cost tens of billions of pounds.

ICG and Rigby Group declined to comment .

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Politics

Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

Anyone who advertises Channel crossings or fake passports on social media could face up to five years in prison under new government plans.

Research suggests about 80% of migrants arriving to the UK by small boat used internet platforms during their journey – including to contact agents linked to smuggling gangs.

While it is already illegal to assist illegal immigration, ministers hope the creation of a new offence will give police more powers and disrupt business models.

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Small boat crammed with migrants in Channel

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also planning to introduce a fast-track scheme to tackle the asylum backlog, meaning decisions will be made within weeks.

It comes as official figures show more than 25,000 people have arrived on small boats so far in 2025 – a record for this point in the year.

Ms Cooper said it is “immoral” for smugglers to sell false promises online, adding: “These criminals have no issue with leading migrants to life-threatening situations using brazen tactics on social media.

“We are determined to do everything we can to stop them, wherever they operate.”

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The new offence prohibiting the online promotion of Channel crossings is set to be included in the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill already going through Parliament.

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More migrants arrive in Dover

Officials from the National Crime Agency already work with tech giants to remove such posts – with more than 8,000 taken offline last year.

A Preston-based smuggler who was jailed for 17 years had posted videos of migrants thanking him for his help.

Meanwhile, Albanian smugglers have created promotions for £12,000 “package deals” which claim to offer accommodation and a job in the UK on arrival.

The Conservatives have described the measures as “too little, too late” – and say automatic deportations are the only way to tackle small boat crossings.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: “Labour still has no clear plan to deter illegal entry, no effective enforcement and no strategy to speed up removals. This is a panicked attempt to look tough after months of doing nothing.”

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Waves and kisses from asylum hotel window

It comes as protests outside hotels believed to be housing asylum seekers continue in towns and cities across the UK.

Several demonstrators were detained – with police breaking up brief clashes – outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in north London yesterday.

The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.

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Just 36 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday, Palestinian officials claim – short of 600 needed

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Just 36 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday, Palestinian officials claim - short of 600 needed

Just 36 aid trucks entered Gaza on Saturday – despite the humanitarian situation in the enclave worsening, Palestinian officials have warned.

According to the Gazan government’s media office, most of the humanitarian supplies were looted and stolen – “as a result of the state of security chaos that the Israeli occupation systematically and deliberately perpetuates”.

Officials say at least 600 truckloads of aid are required on a daily basis, adding: “The needs of the population are worsening.”

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Gaza nurse: ‘We’re rationing care’

A statement released late last night called for “the immediate opening of crossings, and the entry of aid and infant formula in sufficient quantities” – and “condemned in the strongest terms the continuation of the crime of starvation”.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, refuted this – and accused Hamas of “stirring up a slanderous propaganda campaign against Israel”.

He said: “The cruelty of Hamas has no boundaries. While the State of Israel is allowing the entry of humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza, the terrorists of Hamas are deliberately starving our hostages and document them in a cynical and evil manner.

“The terrorists of Hamas are deliberately starving the residents of the Strip as well, preventing them from receiving the aid.”

More on Gaza

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Aid drops continue over Gaza

It comes as the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza said its headquarters in Khan Younis were hit by an Israeli strike, killing one staff member and injuring three others.

Footage posted on social media shows a fire broke out in the building.

Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel for a 60-day ceasefire, and a deal for the release of half the hostages still held in Gaza, ended in deadlock last week.

US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy told the families of the hostages yesterday that he was working with the Israeli government on a plan that would end the war.

Steve Witkoff, front centre, arrives to meet families of hostages in Tel Aviv, Israel. Pic: AP/Ariel Schalit
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Steve Witkoff arrives to meet families of hostages in Tel Aviv. Pic: AP

Steve Witkoff claimed that Hamas was willing to disarm to stop the conflict, despite the group’s repeated statements that it would not do so.

In response, Hamas said it would not disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established with Jerusalem as its capital.

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Man tries to detonate 14 explosive devices while being arrested

After Mr Witkoff’s meeting with the families of the hostages, Hamas released two videos of an emaciated Israeli hostage, Evyatar David, who was abducted from the Nova music festival on 7 October 2023 and has been held in captivity in Gaza since.

The 24-year-old looked skeletal, with his shoulder blades protruding from his back. He was heard saying that he had not eaten for three days. The distressing videos show him digging his own grave, he said in the footage.

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