Connect with us

Published

on

As the Twitter handle of the Kobeissi Letter discussed the ramification of the banking crisis, Tesla CEO Elon Musk highlighted a serious crisis waiting in the wings.

What Happened: More than $2.5 trillion in commercial real-estate debt is set to mature over the next five years, the most than any five-year period in history, "Kobeissi Letter," which publishes a weekly commentary on the global capital markets, tweeted.

See Also: Best Growth Stocks Right Now

While rates have more than doubled and occupancy rates of commercial real estate remain low at 60-70%, refinancing these loans could be incredibly expensive, likely leading to the next major crisis, it said.

And worse is the fact that about 70% of commercial real estate loans are owned by small banks, it added.

Rapidly rising rates are teaching everyone a valuable lesson. Theres no such thing as free lunch.

The Fed apparently is having a part as the banking crisis will likely play out as a commercial real-estate crisis, it said.

Musk Chimes In: Commenting on the tweet, Musk said this is by far the most serious looming issue, adding in that mortgages could be too.

This is by far the most serious looming issue. Mortgages too. Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 27, 2023

This is not the first time the billionaire is offering his take on the housing market. In mid-2022, he said predatory lenders were severely wounded or didnt survive as the house prices collapsed, referring to the housing market collapse of 2006.

Fed Needs To Act: The looming crisis is potentially a product of the Fed that cut interest rates too quickly and then tried to play catch up, "Kobeissi Letter" said in a follow-up tweet.

To mitigate this risk, the Fed needs to cut rates ASAP and the government needs to back all deposits temporarily.

Morgan Stanley analyst said in a recent podcast that affordability is challenged and housing supply is very tight, although the two are no longer getting even more stretched.

"In other words, we don't see a catalyst for sales volumes to inflect higher from here, but we also don't think the ingredients are in place for large month-over-month declines to continue either."

Sales are leaning toward bottoming right now and volumes will likely be weak in the first half of 2023, they said. "We also want to emphasize that this will still result in significant year-over-year declines, given how strong the first half of 2022 was," the firm added.

President Joe Biden said Friday that banks are in pretty good shape and there is no imminent danger of any of them exploding.

Photo: Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

Read Next:Biden Says 'Banks In Pretty Good Shape' Even As Banking Crisis Plays Out: 'Don't See Anything … That's About To Explode'

Continue Reading

Politics

Government ‘doesn’t think’ Donald Trump will impose trade tariffs on UK – but is ‘prepared for all scenarios’

Published

on

By

Government 'doesn't think' Donald Trump will impose trade tariffs on UK - but is 'prepared for all scenarios'

The government doesn’t think Donald Trump will impose trade tariffs on the UK, but is “prepared for all scenarios”, a cabinet minister has said. 

Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that the former president’s return to the White House “could be an enormously positive thing with lots of opportunities”.

Mr Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States, singling out Canada, Mexico, and China as countries that could face steeper measures within hours of his inauguration on Monday.

Asked what the government will do if that happens to the UK, Mr Jones said that was a “hypothetical” question and to wait and see “what actually happens”.

Politics Hub: Trump ‘within his right’ to make statement on tariffs

“If that were to happen, I will come back and lay out the details for you. But the point is, is that I don’t think we’re going to be in that scenario,” Mr Jones said.

Darren Jones is asked the same quesion eight times by Kay Burley
Image:
Darren Jones

He said there is a narrative in the UK that Mr Trump’s presidency poses “a big risk for Britain”, when this isn’t the case.

More on Donald Trump Jr

“Britain is a brilliant country with huge capabilities and assets which are valued not just to the British people, but to the American economy and other parts of the world,” he said.

“I have no doubt whatsoever that under the Trump administration there are going to be plenty of opportunities that we can seize, and we should be positive about that and be strong about securing this deal.”

Mr Jones confirmed there is ultimately a plan if tariffs are imposed, but said it isn’t for him “to lay out the details in advance of something actually happening on TV”.

“It’s not breaking news that the government prepares for all scenarios,” he added.

“My broader point is that we shouldn’t be looking at president-elect Trump’s inauguration as a risk, or a bad thing for the UK. It could be an enormously positive thing with lots of opportunities.”

President-elect Trump will be sworn in to a second term in office on Monday, following his election victory in November, and there have been concerns over what his pledged tariffs could mean for economies around the globe.

The former businessman has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.

Read more:
Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning
What Trump’s tariffs could mean for UK, EU, China and the world

UK ‘should pursue free trade deal’ with US

Shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel, who is in Washington DC for the inauguration, said Mr Trump is “within his rights to make the statements that he wants around tariffs… but as ever this is a discussion and a negotiation”.

Priti Patel in Washington DC
Image:
Priti Patel in Washington DC

She said the Labour government should resume her party’s talks over a post-Brexit free trade deal with the US and “not even enter into these discussions around tariffs”.

A trade deal with the US had been set as a priority in the Conservative’s 2019 manifesto but was not achieved by the time of the general election in July last year, which they lost.

Ms Patel went on to call Reform UK leader Nigel Farage a “pop-up act” and “not relevant” when asked if her party should make peace with him to get on well with Mr Trump, given the close relationship of the pair.

She said the Conservatives and Republicans are “sister parties” with “enduring, long-standing ties”.

“We’re not a pop-up act in the way in which they [Reform UK] are… so I don’t think that’s particularly relevant,” she said.

However, the Lib Dems accused the former home secretary of “competing with Reform to be most submissive toward Trump”.

Confidence in Mandelson’s appointment

Mr Trump’s inauguration has also caused a stir after reports in the Sunday papers suggested he could reject Lord Peter Mandelson as Sir Keir Starmer’s nomination for the UK’s ambassador to the US.

The Labour grandee has been critical of Mr Trump in the past, and was last month branded an “absolute moron” by a Trump campaigner.

Lord Mandelson. Pic: PA
Image:
Lord Mandelson. Pic: PA

However Mr Jones signalled he was confident that the Blair-era minister would take up his position, telling Sky News he “doubts very much” the media reports are true.

“It’s probably being propagated by some politicians that would like to cause a bit of a nuisance. I doubt that will be the case.”

Govt ‘doesn’t agree’ with Khan’s Trump comments

Mr Jones was also forced to distance himself from comments made by Labour’s Mayor of London Sadiq Khan.

Mr Khan has warned of a century-defining battle against “resurgent fascism”, writing in The Observer that “these are deeply worrying times, especially if you’re a member of a minority community”.

Mr Jones said he does not associate with that language and questions about it “are for Sadiq to answer.”

He later told the BBC: “I speak on behalf of the government and we don’t agree with it.”

Continue Reading

UK

Government ‘doesn’t think’ Donald Trump will impose trade tariffs on UK – but is ‘prepared for all scenarios’

Published

on

By

Government 'doesn't think' Donald Trump will impose trade tariffs on UK - but is 'prepared for all scenarios'

The government doesn’t think Donald Trump will impose trade tariffs on the UK, but is “prepared for all scenarios”, a cabinet minister has said. 

Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that the former president’s return to the White House “could be an enormously positive thing with lots of opportunities”.

Mr Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States, singling out Canada, Mexico, and China as countries that could face steeper measures within hours of his inauguration on Monday.

Asked what the government will do if that happens to the UK, Mr Jones said that was a “hypothetical” question and to wait and see “what actually happens”.

Politics Hub: Trump ‘within his right’ to make statement on tariffs

“If that were to happen, I will come back and lay out the details for you. But the point is, is that I don’t think we’re going to be in that scenario,” Mr Jones said.

Darren Jones is asked the same quesion eight times by Kay Burley
Image:
Darren Jones

He said there is a narrative in the UK that Mr Trump’s presidency poses “a big risk for Britain”, when this isn’t the case.

More on Donald Trump Jr

“Britain is a brilliant country with huge capabilities and assets which are valued not just to the British people, but to the American economy and other parts of the world,” he said.

“I have no doubt whatsoever that under the Trump administration there are going to be plenty of opportunities that we can seize, and we should be positive about that and be strong about securing this deal.”

Mr Jones confirmed there is ultimately a plan if tariffs are imposed, but said it isn’t for him “to lay out the details in advance of something actually happening on TV”.

“It’s not breaking news that the government prepares for all scenarios,” he added.

“My broader point is that we shouldn’t be looking at president-elect Trump’s inauguration as a risk, or a bad thing for the UK. It could be an enormously positive thing with lots of opportunities.”

President-elect Trump will be sworn in to a second term in office on Monday, following his election victory in November, and there have been concerns over what his pledged tariffs could mean for economies around the globe.

The former businessman has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.

Read more:
Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning
What Trump’s tariffs could mean for UK, EU, China and the world

UK ‘should pursue free trade deal’ with US

Shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel, who is in Washington DC for the inauguration, said Mr Trump is “within his rights to make the statements that he wants around tariffs… but as ever this is a discussion and a negotiation”.

Priti Patel in Washington DC
Image:
Priti Patel in Washington DC

She said the Labour government should resume her party’s talks over a post-Brexit free trade deal with the US and “not even enter into these discussions around tariffs”.

A trade deal with the US had been set as a priority in the Conservative’s 2019 manifesto but was not achieved by the time of the general election in July last year, which they lost.

Ms Patel went on to call Reform UK leader Nigel Farage a “pop-up act” and “not relevant” when asked if her party should make peace with him to get on well with Mr Trump, given the close relationship of the pair.

She said the Conservatives and Republicans are “sister parties” with “enduring, long-standing ties”.

“We’re not a pop-up act in the way in which they [Reform UK] are… so I don’t think that’s particularly relevant,” she said.

However, the Lib Dems accused the former home secretary of “competing with Reform to be most submissive toward Trump”.

Confidence in Mandelson’s appointment

Mr Trump’s inauguration has also caused a stir after reports in the Sunday papers suggested he could reject Lord Peter Mandelson as Sir Keir Starmer’s nomination for the UK’s ambassador to the US.

The Labour grandee has been critical of Mr Trump in the past, and was last month branded an “absolute moron” by a Trump campaigner.

Lord Mandelson. Pic: PA
Image:
Lord Mandelson. Pic: PA

However Mr Jones signalled he was confident that the Blair-era minister would take up his position, telling Sky News he “doubts very much” the media reports are true.

“It’s probably being propagated by some politicians that would like to cause a bit of a nuisance. I doubt that will be the case.”

Govt ‘doesn’t agree’ with Khan’s Trump comments

Mr Jones was also forced to distance himself from comments made by Labour’s Mayor of London Sadiq Khan.

Mr Khan has warned of a century-defining battle against “resurgent fascism”, writing in The Observer that “these are deeply worrying times, especially if you’re a member of a minority community”.

Mr Jones said he does not associate with that language and questions about it “are for Sadiq to answer.”

He later told the BBC: “I speak on behalf of the government and we don’t agree with it.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Can Trump’s pro-crypto policies survive beyond his administration?

Published

on

By

Can Trump’s pro-crypto policies survive beyond his administration?

The president-elect can only serve a four-year term before the Oval Office is contested between two new presidential candidates in 2028.

Continue Reading

Trending