It’s a question that’s been hanging over the financial system since the collapse in the space of a fortnight of three moderate American banks, including Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), followed by Swiss behemoth Credit Suisse.
The spectacle of regulators, political leaders and bankers spending sleepless weekends managing insolvencies, bailouts and takeovers, against the red-ink backdrop of lurching markets, has stirred memories of 2008 and the financial crash.
The answer from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, repeated to MPs on the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, is “don’t panic”, not yet anyway.
Mr Bailey conceded that recent events made this a moment of “heightened tension and alertness”, but that comparisons with 2008 are erroneous and, so far, UK regulations introduced post-crash are passing the test.
His diagnosis is that while the issues that brought down SVB and Credit Suisse are distinct and separate, the interconnectedness of the financial system means the risk of contagion cannot be ignored.
SVB collapsed because of poor risk management, with deposits locked into fixed incomes investments that fell in value as interest rates rose. Credit Suisse meanwhile, after a decade of unerringly finding new scandals in which to become embroiled, finally stepped on a rake it could not recover from.
Mr Bailey found himself directly involved with the fallout from SVB, engineering the sale of its UK subsidiary to HSBC over a long weekend, with the deal only confirmed he said at 4am on the Monday, hours before markets reopened.
The actions taken by the Bank he said proved the value of new regulation.
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A five-point guide to the banking panic of 2023
SVB had a distinct UK presence because its British branch had grown to a point it was required to become a separate subsidiary. That in turn gave the Bank of England and the Prudential Regulation Authority options in managing its decline, one of which was a sale.
Mr Bailey and his colleagues did concede there are lessons to learn, primarily from the speed with which confidence and, crucially, deposits were withdrawn from the banks.
As a result they will re-examine whether the current bank “stress tests” governing liquidity – the amount of cash banks must have on hand to absorb shocks to the system – are adequate.
Technology may have helped change that calculation. In 2007 we knew Northern Rock was on the brink because customers were queuing outside branches. Today you can withdraw funds digitally in the time it takes to read this sentence, and a bank run could be underway by the end of the paragraph.
Deputy governor Dave Ramsden told MPs that messaging apps further accelerate the potential for bank runs, and said this was a factor in the SVB collapse, with the bulk of depositors all working in the tight-knit US tech industry.
“They were a tech-savvy group, already using messaging in ordinary situations, using it in a run situation.”
The result was what Bailey called “the fastest journey from health to death since Barings”, a reference to the British investment bank that collapsed spectacularly in 1995.
But he insisted the issues are bank-specific and isolated, describing the jitters that have seen banks stocks rise and fall rapidly as markets “testing” various institutions, looking for weakness. The latest example came on Friday afternoon, when Deutsche Bank’s valuation fell without an obvious trigger only to recover on Monday.
“My very strong view of the UK banking system is that it is in a very strong position,” Bailey said. “But there are moves in markets to test out firms, they are not based on identified weakness, rather they’re testing out. There’s a lot of testing going on.”
The fast food chain LEON has taken a swipe at “unsustainable taxes” while moving to secure its future through the appointment of an administrator, leaving hundreds of jobs at risk.
The loss-making company, bought back from Asda by its co-founder John Vincent in October, said it had begun a process that aimed to bring forward the closure of unprofitable sites. It was to form part of a turnaround plan to restore the brand to its roots around natural foods.
It was unclear at this stage how many of its 71 restaurants – 44 of them directly owned – and approximately 1,100 staff would be affected by the plans for the so-called Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA).
“The restructuring will involve the closure of several of LEON’s restaurants and a number of job losses”, a statement said.
“The company has created a programme to support anyone made redundant.”
It added: “LEON and Quantuma intend to spend the next few weeks discussing the plans with its landlords and laying out options for the future of the Company.
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“LEON then plans to emerge from administration as a leaner business that can return to its founding values and principles more easily.
“In the meantime, all the group’s restaurants remain open, serving customers as usual. The LEON grocery business will not be affected in any way by the CVA.”
Mr Vincent said. “If you look at the performance of LEON’s peers, you will see that everyone is facing challenges – companies are reporting significant losses due to working patterns and increasingly unsustainable taxes.”
Mr Vincent sold the chain to Asda in 2021 for £100m but it struggled, like rivals, to make headway after the pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed the public health emergency.
The hospitality sector has taken aim at the chancellor’s business rates adjustments alongside heightened employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, accusing the government of placing jobs and businesses in further peril.
Overall, water firms face a sector-wide revenue reduction of nearly £309m as a result of Ofwat’s determination. Thames Water’s £187.1m cut is the largest revenue reduction.
This will take effect from next year and up to 2030 as part of water companies’ regulator-approved five-year spending and investment plans.
The downward revenue revision has been made as Ofwat believes the companies will perform better than first thought and therefore require less money.
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Better financial performance is ultimately good news for customers.
The change published on Wednesday is a technical update; the initial revenue projections published in December 2024 were based on projected financial performance but after financial results were published in the summer and Ofwat was able to apply these figures.
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Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?
Thames Water and industry body Water UK have been contacted for comment.
A huge takeover that would rock the entertainment industry looks imminent, with Netflix and Paramount fighting over Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).
Streaming giant Netflix announced it had agreed a $72bn (£54bn) deal for WBD’s film and TV studios on 5 December, only for Paramount to sweep in with a $108.4bn (£81bn) bid several days later.
The takeover saga isn’t far removed from a Hollywood plot; with multi-billionaires negotiating in boardrooms, politicians on all sides expressing their fears for the public and the US president looming large, expected to play a significant role.
“Whichever way this deal goes, it will certainly be one of the biggest media deals in history. It will shake up the established TV and film norms and will have global implications,” Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner said on the Trump 100 podcast.
So what do we know about the bids, why are they controversial – and how is Donald Trump involved?
Why is Warner Bros up for sale?
WBD’s board first announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October after a summer of hushed speculation.
Back in June, WBD announced its plan to split into two companies: one for its TV, film studios, and HBO Max streaming services, and one for the Discovery element of the business, primarily comprising legacy TV channels that air cartoons, news, and sports.
It came amid the cable industry’s continued struggles at the hands of streaming services, and CEO David Zaslav suggested splitting into two companies would give WBD’s brands the “sharper focus and strategic flexibility they need to compete most effectively in today’s evolving media landscape”.
The company’s long-term strategic initiatives have also been stifled by its estimated $35bn of debt. This wasn’t helped by the WarnerMedia and Discovery merger in 2022, which led to it becoming Warner Bros Discovery.
Image: WBD’s announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October. Pic: iStock
What we know about the bids
The $72bn bid from Netflix is for the first division of the business, which would give it the rights to worldwide hits like the Harry Potter and Game of Thrones franchises – and Warner Bros’ extensive back catalogue of movies.
If the deal were to happen, it would not be finalised until the split is complete, and Discovery Global, including channels like CNN, will not form part of the merger.
Paramount’s $108.4bn offer is what’s known as a hostile bid. This means it went directly to shareholders with a cash offer for the entirety of the company, asking them to reject the deal with Netflix.
Image: Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix. Pic: Reuters
This deal would involve rival US news channels CBS and CNN being brought under the same parent company.
Netflix’s cash and stock deal is valued at $27.75 (£20.80) per Warner share, giving it a total enterprise value of $82.7bn (£62bn), including debt.
But Paramount says its deal will pay $30 (£22.50) cash per share, representing $18bn (£13.5bn) more in cash than its rivals are offering.
Paramount claims to have tried several times to bid for WBD through its board, but said it launched the hostile bid after hearing of Netflix’s offer because the board had “never engaged meaningfully”.
Image: David Zaslav, CEO and president of Warner Bros Discovery. Pic: Reuters
Why are politicians and experts concerned?
The US government will have a big say on who ultimately buys WBD, as Paramount and Netflix will likely face the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Antitrust Division, a federal agency which scrutinises business deals to ensure fair competition.
Republicans and Democrats have voiced concerns over the potential monopolisation of streaming and the impact it would have on cinemas if Netflix – already the world’s biggest streaming service by market share – were to take over WBD.
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Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren said the deal “would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market – threatening to force Americans into higher subscription prices and fewer choices over what and how they watch, while putting American workers at risk”.
Similarly, Representative Pramila Jayapal, who co-chairs the House Monopoly Busters Caucus, called the deal a “nightmare,” adding: “It would mean more price hikes, ads, and cookie-cutter content, less creative control for artists, and lower pay for workers.”
Netflix’s business model of prioritising streaming over cinemas has caused consternation in Hollywood.
The screen actors union SAG-AFTRA said the merger “raises many serious questions” for actors, while the Directors Guild of America said it also had “concerns”.
Experts suggest there’s less of a concern with the Paramount deal when it comes to a streaming monopoly, because its Paramount+ service is smaller and has less of an international footprint than Netflix.
And while Mr Trump himself will not be directly involved, he appointed those in the DOJ Antitrust Division, and they have the authority to block or challenge takeovers.
However, his potential influence isn’t sitting well with some experts due to his ties with key players on the Paramount side.
Image: Larry Ellison (centre left) in the White House with Trump. Pic: Reuters
Paramount is run by David Ellison, the son of the Oracle tech billionaire (and world’s second-richest man) Larry Ellison, who is a close ally of Mr Trump.
Additionally, Affinity Partners, an investment firm run by Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, would be investing in the deal.
Also participating would be funds controlled by the governments of three unnamed Persian Gulf countries, widely reported as Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar – countries the Trump family company has struck deals with this year.
Image: David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance. Pic: Reuters
Critics of the Trump’s administration has accused it of being transactional, with the president known to hold grudges over those who are critical of him, however, Mr Trump told reporters on 8 December that he has not spoken with Mr Kushner about WBD, adding that neither Netflix nor Paramount “are friends of mine”.
John Mayo, an antitrust expert at Georgetown University, suggested the scrutiny by the Antitrust Division would be serious whichever offer is approved by shareholders, and that he thinks experts there will keep partisanship out of their decisions despite the politically charged atmosphere.
What happens next?
WBD must now advise shareholders whether Paramount’s offer constitutes a superior offer by 22 December.
If the company decides that Paramount’s offer is superior, Netflix would have the opportunity to match or beat it.
WBD would have to pay Netflix a termination fee of $2.8bn (£2.10bn) if it decides to scrap the deal.
Shareholders have until 8 January 2026 to vote on Paramount’s offer.