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How worried should we be about the banks?

It’s a question that’s been hanging over the financial system since the collapse in the space of a fortnight of three moderate American banks, including Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), followed by Swiss behemoth Credit Suisse.

The spectacle of regulators, political leaders and bankers spending sleepless weekends managing insolvencies, bailouts and takeovers, against the red-ink backdrop of lurching markets, has stirred memories of 2008 and the financial crash.

The answer from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, repeated to MPs on the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, is “don’t panic”, not yet anyway.

Mr Bailey conceded that recent events made this a moment of “heightened tension and alertness”, but that comparisons with 2008 are erroneous and, so far, UK regulations introduced post-crash are passing the test.

His diagnosis is that while the issues that brought down SVB and Credit Suisse are distinct and separate, the interconnectedness of the financial system means the risk of contagion cannot be ignored.

SVB collapsed because of poor risk management, with deposits locked into fixed incomes investments that fell in value as interest rates rose. Credit Suisse meanwhile, after a decade of unerringly finding new scandals in which to become embroiled, finally stepped on a rake it could not recover from.

Mr Bailey found himself directly involved with the fallout from SVB, engineering the sale of its UK subsidiary to HSBC over a long weekend, with the deal only confirmed he said at 4am on the Monday, hours before markets reopened.

The actions taken by the Bank he said proved the value of new regulation.

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A five-point guide to the banking panic of 2023

SVB had a distinct UK presence because its British branch had grown to a point it was required to become a separate subsidiary. That in turn gave the Bank of England and the Prudential Regulation Authority options in managing its decline, one of which was a sale.

Mr Bailey and his colleagues did concede there are lessons to learn, primarily from the speed with which confidence and, crucially, deposits were withdrawn from the banks.

As a result they will re-examine whether the current bank “stress tests” governing liquidity – the amount of cash banks must have on hand to absorb shocks to the system – are adequate.

Technology may have helped change that calculation. In 2007 we knew Northern Rock was on the brink because customers were queuing outside branches. Today you can withdraw funds digitally in the time it takes to read this sentence, and a bank run could be underway by the end of the paragraph.

Deputy governor Dave Ramsden told MPs that messaging apps further accelerate the potential for bank runs, and said this was a factor in the SVB collapse, with the bulk of depositors all working in the tight-knit US tech industry.

“They were a tech-savvy group, already using messaging in ordinary situations, using it in a run situation.”

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The result was what Bailey called “the fastest journey from health to death since Barings”, a reference to the British investment bank that collapsed spectacularly in 1995.

But he insisted the issues are bank-specific and isolated, describing the jitters that have seen banks stocks rise and fall rapidly as markets “testing” various institutions, looking for weakness. The latest example came on Friday afternoon, when Deutsche Bank’s valuation fell without an obvious trigger only to recover on Monday.

“My very strong view of the UK banking system is that it is in a very strong position,” Bailey said. “But there are moves in markets to test out firms, they are not based on identified weakness, rather they’re testing out. There’s a lot of testing going on.”

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Digital bank Monzo expands fundraising to £500m in deal with top tech investor

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Digital bank Monzo expands fundraising to £500m in deal with top tech investor

Monzo, the fintech which has become one of Britain’s biggest consumer banking groups, is this weekend putting the finishing touches to an expanded fundraising involving one of the world’s best-known technology investors.

Sky News has learnt that Monzo has agreed terms with Hedosophia, an early backer of Airbnb and Uber, for it to become a shareholder in the bank.

City sources said on Sunday that Monzo could announce as soon as this week that Hedosophia and Singapore’s Government Investment Corporation (GIC) were participating in an overall fundraising worth close to £500m.

The larger-than-expected round makes it one of the largest ever achieved by a British tech company.

One insider said that GIC was investing over £50m, with Hedosophia also committing tens of millions of pounds.

Hedosophia, which declined to comment, is an early-growth investor founded by Ian Osborne, who has backed some of the world’s biggest tech names over the last 15 years.

Among the British tech companies it has backed include Wise, the London-listed money transfer business, and Marshmallow, the insurance group.

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Monzo’s expanded fundraising is likely to mean that it will not require any further capital if it decides, as expected, to go public in the next couple of years.

The digital bank, which has millions of customers in Britain, recently secured a valuation in excess of £4bn after concluding the initial phase of its funding round.

Founded in 2015, it is now profitable and has diversified into investments and instant access savings accounts.

It now ranks as the seventh-biggest bank in Britain by number of customers.

The new fundraising was led by Capital G, the independent growth fund of Alphabet, Google’s parent company.

The company is among a new generation of banks which have emerged since the last financial crisis and begun to accumulate a significant share of the UK retail banking market.

Rivals include Starling Bank, which recently named a permanent chief executive to replace its founder, Anne Boden.

Revolut, which was valued at $33bn (£26.5bn) in a funding round in 2021, has yet to receive a UK banking licence despite more than a year of talks with regulators.

Monzo has recovered spectacularly from a difficult period two years ago, when it emerged that the City watchdog was investigating it for potential breaches of anti-money laundering and financial crime rules.

It has historically been loss-making, in common with most start-ups, reporting a loss of £116m in the year to the end of February, but is expected to be profitable this year – a major milestone for a standalone digital bank.

Monzo recently revamped its corporate structure as it pursues an international expansion strategy that will serve as the prelude to a stock market listing.

Monzo Bank Holding Group was established to avoid the company facing punitive capital treatment by British regulators as it launches in new overseas markets.

Existing Monzo investors include the Chinese group Tencent, Passion Capital, Accel and General Catalyst.

Monzo is run by TS Anil, its chief executive, and chaired by Gary Hoffman, one of Britain’s most prominent bank executives.

On Sunday, Monzo declined to comment.

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Hunt calls Dorneywood summit to boost flagging UK stock market

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Hunt calls Dorneywood summit to boost flagging UK stock market

Jeremy Hunt is convening a summit aimed at enticing more companies to London’s stock market amid an accelerating exodus of businesses being picked off by overseas and financial predators.

Sky News has learnt that the Treasury has invited the bosses of some of Britain’s most prominent private companies to attend a meeting next month at Dorneywood, the chancellor’s weekend country residence.

Sources said the day-long event on 16 May would target entrepreneurs behind potential flotation candidates from the fintech and biotech sectors.

Bim Afolami, the City minister, and Lord Petitgas, the prime minister’s chief business adviser, will also be present, alongside key government officials and executives from the London Stock Exchange, the sources added.

In the invitation, a copy of which has been seen by Sky News, the Treasury said attendees and the chancellor would “discuss the UK’s capital markets and how they can support innovative, high-growth companies such as yours to achieve your growth ambitions”.

“The UK’s capital markets play a key role in our economy: driving growth, creating jobs and facilitating investment.

“The government is committed to ensuring that the UK remains the best place for companies to grow, and is already taking forward an ambitious programme of reforms to improve the competitiveness of the UK.”

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Dozens of companies, including the likes of digital banks Monzo and Starling Bank, are understood to have been on the invitation list.

The Dorneywood summit has been planned for several months, according to officials, who denied that it was being staged in response to a glut of companies which have announced in recent weeks that they are in receipt of takeover bids or that they would unilaterally delist from the London market.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Pic: PA
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Pic: PA

Approaches this week for Anglo American, the £30bn mining giant, and Darktrace, the cybersecurity company, have exacerbated the impression of a growing ‘de-equitisation’ of the UK stock market.

Although neither of those deals have yet to be formally agreed, a string of others have, including International Paper’s bid for DS Smith, the FTSE-100 paper and packaging group, which was revealed by Sky News last month.

Other companies which have agreed deals with suitors include Virgin Money, which is set to be bought by Nationwide in a £3bn deal.

Yet more, such as the Royal Mail parent International Distributions Services and the music royalties company Hipgnosis Songs Fund, are in receipt of serious takeover approaches.

While frenetic periods of mergers and acquisitions are far from uncommon, bankers and investors point to a dearth of attractive new opportunities to deploy capital because the flow of initial public offerings has been so slow.

Many of the companies that London would have hoped to attract, including the private equity firm CVC Capital Partners and the chip designer ARM Holdings, opted to list in Amsterdam and New York respectively.

The perception of London’s decline is being heightened by the decisions of boards to move their existing UK listings to other international exchanges, with TUI Travel and Flutter Entertainment, the gambling group behind Paddy Power, among those to relegate their London market presence.

Bosses of companies as large as Shell, the oil behemoth, have also begun to acknowledge publicly their frustration at what they perceive to be a gulf between their intrinsic valuation and that which the public markets are attaching to them.

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Earlier this month, the boss of E-Therapeutics, a fast-growing but loss-making biotech company, described the London stock market as “broken and closed” as he announced plans to delist it and pursue a New York flotation at a future date.

This weekend, one government insider said the Dorneywood meeting would be important because it would highlight to fast-growing British companies that listing overseas “is not all milk and honey”.

A number of the UK-based businesses – such as Arrival, Cazoo and Benevolent AI – which went public in Europe and the US during the now-faded boom for special purpose acquisition companies – have seen their valuations crash, with some subsequently cancelling their listings.

“We need to explain to companies why London’s capital markets are the right place for these businesses to go public,” said one government source.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “The chancellor is meeting with a number of firms to hear their reflections on UK markets and what more the government and regulators can do to support their growth.”

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

The extraordinary, unprecedented and largely unexplained flows of millions of pounds of British luxury cars into states neighbouring Russia continued in February, according to new official data.

Some £26m worth of British cars were exported to Azerbaijan in February, according to data from HM Revenue & Customs.

The numbers show that in the latest quarter this former Soviet state with developing economy status was the 17th biggest destination for UK cars, bigger than long-established export markets such as Ireland, Portugal and Qatar.

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Azerbaijan’s ascent has coincided almost to the month with the imposition of sanctions on the export of cars to Russia.

British cars are banned from being sent into Russia, both as “dual use” goods, which could be repurposed as weapons, and, for any cars over the value of £42,000, under specific luxury goods restrictions.

However, even as UK car exports to Russia plummeted to zero, they have risen sharply to states neighbouring Russia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and, most notably of all, Azerbaijan.

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While it is impossible to prove where those shipments end up eventually, there is plentiful anecdotal evidence that these countries are being used as conduits to smuggle banned goods to Russia.

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The latest HMRC data shows that in the three months to February, the average value of the cars being sent to Azerbaijan was over £115,000, making this small, relatively poor economy one of the most high-value luxury car markets in the world – alongside Switzerland, Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia.

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The total value of UK car exports to Azerbaijan in the two years since the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions is now £523m. That compares to £58m in the immediately preceding two years.

Britain’s motor lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), has insisted that this 800% increase can be explained by domestic factors in the Azerbaijani economy – and is not connected with Russian sanctions.

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March: British-made luxury cars still being bought by rich Russians

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An SMMT spokesperson said: “UK carmakers comply with all trade sanctions and would condemn any party putting that commitment at risk. Car exports from UK factories to Azerbaijan have grown since 2019 due to multiple factors, including significant new model launches, pent-up demand and a growing domestic appetite for UK luxury cars. Indeed, UN data shows that just two cars of any origin have been officially exported from Azerbaijan to Russia this year.

“We have never ruled out the possibility that third parties might exploit any vulnerabilities in the sanction regime, and manufacturers do everything in their power to prevent this. Any UK-built vehicle on sale in Russia found its way there without their authorisation. This is a fast-moving global issue covering products from multiple sectors in many countries deploying sanctions, and tackling any vulnerabilities requires a coordinated, global response.”

However, while United Nations (UN) data suggests the quantity of cars being officially exported to Russia remains low, that same evidence suggests that, far from behaving like a normal car market, Azerbaijan does seem to be funnelling cars off elsewhere into Central Asia.

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Contrary to the SMMT’s analysis, which suggests the car exports can be explained by domestic factors, car exports from Azerbaijan have risen by 4,800% since the invasion of Russia, with most of the cars destined (according to UN data) for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and the United Arab Emirates.

According to UK government sources, these states are understood to be widely used as conduits for goods into Russia.

Cars are not the only British goods to have seen a large spike in exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus – so too have components and machinery used to make weapons. In a visit to Kyrgyzstan this week, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron admitted that Russia is using central Asian countries to sidestep sanctions and build its “war machine”.

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