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UK grocery inflation has hit a new record high – with customers now paying hundreds more a year – but there are warnings the worst is yet to come.

As inflation for food hits 17.5%, Kantar Worldpanel reported households are now facing a potential £837 hike in the annual cost of their regular basket – although consumers are increasingly shopping around in a bid to find the best value.

Its latest report said footfall was up in “every single grocer” over the four weeks to March 19, with households now visiting three or more of the top 10 retailers per month on average – with chains “battling it out” to get buyers through their doors.

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But amid concerns over the impact of salad shortages in some UK supermarkets, Kantar said shoppers had instead turned to independents to plug any gaps in availability.

Its head of retail and consumer insight, Fraser McKevitt, said: “Despite concerns about shortages, the number of baskets containing tomatoes, cucumbers or peppers in the 10 major grocers stayed at 17% in March, the same as February.

“For any shoppers who couldn’t get what they wanted in larger supermarkets, the independents stepped in, with the volumes of tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers in baskets rising by 32%, 26% and 21% respectively in these stores.”

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The cost of sugar has helped drive inflation

‘The worst is yet to come’

Shop prices are now 8.9% higher than they were a year ago, up from February’s 8.4% increase, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-NielsenIQ index.

The rising cost of sugar, coupled with high manufacturing costs, has contributed to price rises for chocolate, sweets and fizzy drinks. Fruit and vegetable prices have also risen as poor harvests in Europe and North Africa limited availability.

But there are warnings the UK has not seen the worst of the surging prices.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Shop price inflation has yet to peak.

“Food price rises will likely ease in the coming months, particularly as we enter the UK growing season, but wider inflation is expected to remain high.”

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Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: “Inflation continues to have an impact on the spending power of shoppers and increased energy bills from April will add more pressure.”

“Since food prices have risen retailers have seen more visits but less basket spend, as shoppers manage their weekly food bills by shopping little and more often and seeking out the lowest prices.

“And as Easter approaches some high street retailers will also be offering discounts and promotions to encourage customers to spend.”

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Unexpected rise in UK inflation

The fastest-growing supermarkets

Mr McKevitt said shoppers were increasingly taking advantage of store loyalty cards, with nine in ten consumers having one in their wallet, while shoppers are also picking more own-label lines, sales of which are up by 15.8% during the period compared to last year.

But he added: “People are keeping some space in their baskets for the brands they know and love. Outside the discounters Aldi and Lidl, branded goods still make up 52% of the market and sales grew by 7.2% over the past month, the fastest rate we’ve seen since February 2021.

Kantar said Lidl was the fastest growing supermarket with sales rising by 25.8%, earning it a market share of 7.4%.

Tesco remains Britain’s largest grocer with a 26.9% share of the market, while Sainsbury’s is on 14.8% and Asda 14.3%, according to the data.

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Nvidia beats revenue expectations in boost to AI investment and US stock markets

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Nvidia beats revenue expectations in boost to AI investment and US stock markets

The world’s most valuable company, and first to be valued at $4trn (£2.9trn), beat market expectations in keenly anticipated financial results.

Microchip maker Nvidia recorded revenues of $46.7bn (£34.6bn) in just three months up to July, latest financial data from the company showed, slightly better than Wall Street observers had expected.

The company’s performance is seen as a bellwether for artificial intelligence (AI) demand, with investors paying close attention to see whether the hype is overblown or if significant investment will pay off.

Originally a creator of gaming graphics hardware, Nvidia’s chips help power AI capability – and the UK’s most powerful supercomputer.

Nvidia’s graphics processors underpin products such as ChatGPT from OpenAI and Gemini from Google.

Other tech giants – Microsoft, Meta and Amazon – make up Nvidia’s biggest customers and are paying large sums to embed AI into their products.

Why does it matter?

Nvidia has been central to the boom in AI development and the surge in tech stock valuations, which has seen stock markets reach record highs.

It represents about 8% of the value of the US S&P 500 stock market index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable.

Strong results will continue to fuel record highs in the market. Conversely, results that fail to live up to the hype could trigger a market tumble.

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Nvidia itself saw its share price rise more than 40% over the past year. Its value impacts anyone with cash in the US stock market, such as pension funds.

The S&P 500 rose 14% over the past year, and the tech-company-heavy NASDAQ gained 21%, largely thanks to Nvidia.

As such, its earnings can move markets as much as major economic or monetary policy announcements, like an interest rate decision.

Sir Keir Starmer with NVIDIA chief Huang at London Tech Week. Pic: AP
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Sir Keir Starmer with NVIDIA chief Huang at London Tech Week. Pic: AP

What next?

Revenue rises are forecast to continue to rise as Nvidia said it expected a rise to roughly $54bn (£40bn) in the next three months, more than the $53.14bn (£39.3bn) anticipated by analysts.

This excludes any potential shipments to China as export of Nvidia’s H20 chip, designed with the Biden administration’s export crackdown on advanced AI powering chips in mind, had been banned under US national security grounds.

But in recent weeks, Nvidia and another chipmaker, AMD, reached an unprecedented agreement to pay the Trump administration a 15% portion of China sales in return for export licences to send chips to China.

There were no H20 sales at all to China in the second quarter of the year, the period for which results were released on Wednesday evening.

Previously, 13% of Nvidia’s revenue came from China, with nearly 50% coming from the US.

Market reaction

Despite the expectation-beating results, Nvidia shares were down in after-hours trading, as the massive revenue rises previously booked by the company were not repeated in the latest quarter.

Compared to a year ago, revenues rose 56% and 6% compared to the three months up to April.

The absence of Chinese sales in forecasts appeared to disappoint.

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Bonuses to rise for Ryanair staff spotting oversized baggage

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Bonuses to rise for Ryanair staff spotting oversized baggage

Ryanair staff are to get more money for spotting and charging for oversized baggage, the company’s chief executive has said.

Michael O’Leary said he made “absolutely no apology” for catching people who are “scamming the system”.

The reward for intercepting passengers travelling with bags larger than permitted will increase from €1.50 (£1.29) to €2.50 (£2.15) per bag in November, and the monthly €80 (£68.95) payment cap will be scrapped, Mr O’Leary said.

At present, the budget airline allows travellers a free 40cm x 30cm x 20cm bag, which can fit under the seat in front, and charges for further luggage up to 55cm x 40cm x 20cm in size.

Customers face fines of up to £75 for an oversized item if it is brought to the boarding gate.

“I make absolutely no apology for it whatsoever”, Mr O’Leary said.

“I am still mystified by the number of people with rucksacks who still think they’re going to get through the gate and we won’t notice the rucksack”, he added.

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Around 200,000 passengers per year are charged bag fees at airport gates.

“We have more work to do to get rid of them”, Mr O’Leary said.

“We are running a very efficient, very affordable, very low-cost airline, and we’re not letting anybody get in the way.”

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The airline does not support a European Union proposal to ensure customers get a free cabin bag, he said.

Air fares

After a 7% fall in air fares for the year to 31 March, Mr O’Leary said he expected ticket prices to go back up this financial year.

“We expect to get most of last year’s 7% decline, but not all,” he told reporters in a news conference.

“We have sold about 70% of our September seats, but we have another 30% to sell, and it’s those last fares, what people pay for all those last-minute bookings through the remainder of September, that will ultimately determine what average airfares are.”

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Energy price cap: Government costs to raise bills from October

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Energy price cap: Government costs to raise bills from October

A larger than expected hike in the energy price cap from October is largely down to higher costs being imposed by the government.

The typical sum households face paying for gas and electricity when using direct debit is to rise by 2% – or £2.93 per month – to £1,755, the energy watchdog Ofgem announced.

The current price cap is £1,720 a year. A 1% increase had been widely forecast.

The latest bill settlement, covering the final quarter of the year until the next price review takes effect from January, will affect around 20 million households.

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There are 14 million others, such as those on pre-payment meters, who will also see bills rise by a similar level.

Those on fixed deals, which are immune from price cap shifts until such time as the term ends, currently stands at 20 million.

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Wholesale prices – volatile since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine back in February 2022 – have been the main driver of rising bills.

But they are making little contribution to the looming increase.

Ofgem explained that government measures, such as the expansion of the warm home discount announced in June, were mainly responsible.

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Bills must rise to pay for energy transition

The discount is set to add £15 to the average annual bill.

It will provide £150 in support to 2.7 million extra people this year, bringing the total number of beneficiaries to six million.

The balance is made up from money needed to upgrade the power network.

Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “While there is still more to do, we are seeing signs of a healthier market. There are more people on fixed tariffs saving themselves money, switching is rising as options for consumers increase, and we’ve seen increases in customer satisfaction, alongside a reduction in complaints.

“While today’s change is below inflation, we know customers might not be feeling it in their pockets. There are things you can do though – consider a fixed tariff as this could save more than £200 against the new cap. Paying by direct debit or smart pay as you go could also save you money.

“In the longer term, we will continue to see fluctuations in our energy prices until we are insulated from volatile international gas markets. That’s why we continue to work with government and the sector to diversify our energy mix to reduce the reliance on markets we do not control.”

The looming price cap lift will leave bills around the same sort of level they were in October last year but it will take hold at a time when overall inflation is higher.

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Inflation has gone up again – this explains why

Food price increases, also partly blamed on government measures such as the national insurance contributions hike imposed on employers, have led the main consumer prices index to a current level of 3.8%.

It is predicted to rise to at least 4% in the coming months, further squeezing household budgets.

Ministers argue that efforts to make the UK less reliant on natural gas, through investment in renewable power sources, will help bring down bills in future.

Energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We know that any price rise is a concern for families. Wholesale gas prices remain 75% above their levels before Russia invaded Ukraine. That is the fossil fuel penalty being paid by families, businesses and our economy.

“That is why the only answer for Britain is this government’s mission to get us off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel prices and onto clean, homegrown power we control, to bring down bills for good.

“At the same time, we are determined to take urgent action to support vulnerable families this winter. That includes expanding the £150 Warm Home Discount to 2.7 million more households and stepping up our overhaul of the energy system to increase protections for customers.”

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