UK government need more than just patriotism to keep up with US and EU in global net-zero race
Faced with a generational triple challenge of delivering a carbon-neutral economy, energy security, and the multi-trillion-pound investments required to make it happen, the government has draped its green ambitions in red, white and blue.
The energy security plan (official title “Powering Up Britain’) is awash with Union flags. From the agency that will develop atomic energy, Great British Nuclear, to the programme to improve domestic energy efficiency, Great British Insulation, it feels like a patriotic rebranding of existing plans and consultations, with very little new money.
It may be a matter of presentation, but it’s a mistake to view the race to net zero as a parochial issue. This is a global competition for technology, innovation, skills and investment. When it comes to money, Britain already finds itself outmuscled by global competitors.
Last August, US President Joe Biden announced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – a $369bn subsidy plan to secure green industrial investment.
The financial incentives to move factories and development to the US are already turning heads in Britain, with the domestic car industry particularly vulnerable as it transitions to an all-electric future.
The European Union has responded to this huge protectionist move with one of its own. A response that could be worth €250bn in subsidies is being finalised in Brussels.
The UK of course would once have benefitted from collective European muscle flexing, but now it poses yet more competition, and much closer to home.
Faced with two industrial giants engaged in a transatlantic arm-wrestle, the UK has effectively said it cannot compete.
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Instead of trying to keep up in a subsidy race, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is hoping being smarter will make up for being smaller, helped by the financial clout of the City of London.
Writing for The Times today, he is explicit: “Our approach will be different – and better. We are not going toe-to-toe with our friends and allies in some distortive global subsidy race.”
Rather than fight a subsidy battle he thinks he is destined to lose, the chancellor hopes the City, and UK innovation, can deliver the investment, skills and jobs required to transform energy supply and the economy.
He cites planned reforms of insurance regulation as allowing investors to free up some of an estimated £100bn in capital for green industries.
To put that in perspective, the Treasury’s own estimate is that the UK requires £60bn a year to hit domestic net-zero targets, and the chancellor has already cited the same reforms as the resource for science and tech investment.
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There is some state funding for green technologies in this announcement, though very little we did not already know about. Some £20bn will go towards Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) projects, a nascent technology still unproven at scale.
Much smaller pots will be aimed at green hydrogen, which has industrial applications that might in time help decarbonise the energy transition’s huge demand for steel, as well as for insulation and setting up Great British Nuclear.
A generous direct subsidy is hard to beat
Yet even with a little state help and a favourable private sector investment environment, a generous direct subsidy is hard to beat. Volkswagen, for example, has already paused its European battery plant plans until it hears whether the EU can match a $10bn subsidy from the US.
The green transition is an opportunity for growth as well as a challenge. As every developed economy turns its attention to the energy transition the Treasury estimates it could be worth £1trn to UK business by 2030.
And there are huge investments required at home, starting with the expansion of the electricity grid to distribute huge volumes of new renewable energy, all of which will require cables to go under or over communities, and through the labyrinthine planning system.
The UK is already importing the green transition
The UK does have advantages in fundamental green industries. Geography has bestowed extensive coastal waters where wind power and expertise flourishes, with floating wind farms the next frontier. Yet the Crown Estate benefits from the licences (through ownership of the seabed) and many of the companies delivering the infrastructure are Scandinavian, demonstrating that the UK is already importing the green transition.
Unless flag-waving becomes a renewable energy source it will take more than patriotism to keep up in this global race.
Four people have been arrested by police investigating cyber attacks targeting M&S, Co-op and Harrods.
A 20-year-old woman and two males, both aged 19, and a male aged 17, were detained in London and the West Midlands this morning as part of a National Crime Agency (NCA) operation.
They were arrested at their homes on suspicion of Computer Misuse Act offences, blackmail, money laundering and participating in the activities of an organised crime group.
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Electronic devices were seized from the suspects and are currently being analysed by forensic experts.
M&S halted online orders, and shelves were empty in shops after the cyber attack on the retailer earlier this year.
The initial hack into the retailer’s systems took place in April through “sophisticated impersonation” involving a third party.
Disruption is expected to continue at the retailer until the end of this month.
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Mickey Carroll in May answered why M&S cyber attack was so bad.
The Co-op and Harrods were also subsequently targeted by hackers.
Paul Foster, head of the NCA’s National cybercrime unit described the arrests as a “significant step” in their investigation, which remains “one of the Agency’s highest priorities”.
He added: “…our work continues, alongside partners in the UK and overseas, to ensure those responsible are identified and brought to justice.”
The National Crime Agency is keen to “signal” to “future victims” the “importance of seeking support and engaging with law enforcement”, stating that “the NCA and policing are here to help”.
The NCA has also thanked M&S, Co-op and Harrods for their support in their investigations.
The arrests, which took place early on Thursday morning, were supported by officers from the West Midlands Regional Organised Crime Unit and the East Midlands Special Operations Unit.
Earlier this week, the chairman of M&S told MPs that the hack had been “traumatic” and like an “out-of-body experience”.
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Archie Norman, however, refused to be drawn on whether the retailer had paid any ransom.
“We are not discussing any of the details of our interaction with the threat actor, including this subject, but that subject is fully shared with the NCA,” he said.
It is estimated that the cyber attack will cost M&S up to £300m this year.
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Days after M&S was attacked, the Co-op was targeted and forced to shut down some internal systems.
Harrods was then hacked, and also had to shut some systems despite its website and shops continuing to operate.
Of those arrested, a 17-year-old British male and a 19-year-old Latvian male were from the West Midlands.
A 19-year-old man was from London and a 20-year-old woman from Staffordshire.
Royal Mail is to be allowed to scrap Saturday second-class stamp deliveries, under a series of reforms proposed by the communications regulator.
From 28 July, Royal Mail will also be allowed to deliver second-class letters on alternate weekdays, Ofcom said.
The post will still be delivered within three working days of collection from Monday to Friday.
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The proposals had already been raised by Ofcom after a consultation was announced in 2024, and the scale back was proposed early this year.
Royal Mail had repeatedly failed to meet the so-called universal service obligation to deliver post within set periods of time.
Those delivery targets are now being revised downwards.
Rather than having to have 93% of first-class mail delivered the next day, 90% will be legally allowed.
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The target for second-class mail deliveries will be lowered from 98.5% to arrive within three working days to 95%.
A review of stamp prices has also been announced by Ofcom amid concerns over affordability, with a consultation set to be launched next year.
It’s good news for Royal Mail and its new owner, the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky. Ofcom estimates the changes will bring savings of between £250m and £425m.
A welcome change?
Unsurprisingly, the company welcomed the announcement.
“It is good news for customers across the UK as it supports the delivery of a reliable, efficient and financially sustainable universal service,” said Martin Seidenberg, the group chief executive of Royal Mail’s parent company, International Distribution Services.
“It follows extensive consultation with thousands of people and businesses to ensure that the postal service better reflects their needs and the realities of how customers send and receive mail today.”
Citizens Advice, however, doubted whether services would improve as a result of the changes.
“Today, Ofcom missed a major opportunity to bring about meaningful change,” said Tom MacInnes, the director of policy at Citizens Advice.
“Pushing ahead with plans to slash services and relax delivery targets in the name of savings won’t automatically make letter deliveries more reliable or improve standards.”
Acknowledging long delays “where letters have taken weeks to arrive”, Ofcom said it set Royal Mail new enforceable targets so 99% of mail has to be delivered no more than two days late.
Changing habits
Less than a third of letters are sent now than 20 years ago, and it is forecast to fall to about a fifth of the letters previously sent.
According to Ofcom research, people want reliability and affordability more than speedy delivery.
Royal Mail has been loss-making in recent years as revenues fell.
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In response to Ofcom’s changes, a government spokesperson said: “The public expects a well-run postal service, with letters arriving on time across the country without it costing the earth. With the way people use postal services having changed, it’s right the regulator has looked at this.
“We now need Royal Mail to work with unions and posties to deliver a service that people expect, and this includes maintaining the principle of one price to send a letter anywhere in the UK”.
Ofcom said it has told Royal Mail to hold regular meetings with consumer bodies and industry groups to hear their experiences implementing the changes.
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