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Faced with a generational triple challenge of delivering a carbon-neutral economy, energy security, and the multi-trillion-pound investments required to make it happen, the government has draped its green ambitions in red, white and blue.

The energy security plan (official title “Powering Up Britain’) is awash with Union flags. From the agency that will develop atomic energy, Great British Nuclear, to the programme to improve domestic energy efficiency, Great British Insulation, it feels like a patriotic rebranding of existing plans and consultations, with very little new money.

It may be a matter of presentation, but it’s a mistake to view the race to net zero as a parochial issue. This is a global competition for technology, innovation, skills and investment. When it comes to money, Britain already finds itself outmuscled by global competitors.

Last August, US President Joe Biden announced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – a $369bn subsidy plan to secure green industrial investment.

The financial incentives to move factories and development to the US are already turning heads in Britain, with the domestic car industry particularly vulnerable as it transitions to an all-electric future.

The European Union has responded to this huge protectionist move with one of its own. A response that could be worth €250bn in subsidies is being finalised in Brussels.

The UK of course would once have benefitted from collective European muscle flexing, but now it poses yet more competition, and much closer to home.

Faced with two industrial giants engaged in a transatlantic arm-wrestle, the UK has effectively said it cannot compete.

Can being smart make up for being small?

Instead of trying to keep up in a subsidy race, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is hoping being smarter will make up for being smaller, helped by the financial clout of the City of London.

Writing for The Times today, he is explicit: “Our approach will be different – and better. We are not going toe-to-toe with our friends and allies in some distortive global subsidy race.”

Rather than fight a subsidy battle he thinks he is destined to lose, the chancellor hopes the City, and UK innovation, can deliver the investment, skills and jobs required to transform energy supply and the economy.

He cites planned reforms of insurance regulation as allowing investors to free up some of an estimated £100bn in capital for green industries.

To put that in perspective, the Treasury’s own estimate is that the UK requires £60bn a year to hit domestic net-zero targets, and the chancellor has already cited the same reforms as the resource for science and tech investment.

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There is some state funding for green technologies in this announcement, though very little we did not already know about. Some £20bn will go towards Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) projects, a nascent technology still unproven at scale.

Much smaller pots will be aimed at green hydrogen, which has industrial applications that might in time help decarbonise the energy transition’s huge demand for steel, as well as for insulation and setting up Great British Nuclear.

A generous direct subsidy is hard to beat

Yet even with a little state help and a favourable private sector investment environment, a generous direct subsidy is hard to beat. Volkswagen, for example, has already paused its European battery plant plans until it hears whether the EU can match a $10bn subsidy from the US.

The green transition is an opportunity for growth as well as a challenge. As every developed economy turns its attention to the energy transition the Treasury estimates it could be worth £1trn to UK business by 2030.

And there are huge investments required at home, starting with the expansion of the electricity grid to distribute huge volumes of new renewable energy, all of which will require cables to go under or over communities, and through the labyrinthine planning system.

The UK is already importing the green transition

The UK does have advantages in fundamental green industries. Geography has bestowed extensive coastal waters where wind power and expertise flourishes, with floating wind farms the next frontier. Yet the Crown Estate benefits from the licences (through ownership of the seabed) and many of the companies delivering the infrastructure are Scandinavian, demonstrating that the UK is already importing the green transition.

Unless flag-waving becomes a renewable energy source it will take more than patriotism to keep up in this global race.

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

Britain’s biggest high street bank is in talks to buy Curve, the digital wallet provider, amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.

Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group is in advanced discussions to acquire Curve for a price believed to be up to £120m.

City sources said this weekend that if the negotiations were successfully concluded, a deal could be announced by the end of September.

Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016.

Three years later, he told an interviewer: “In 10 years time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”

One insider said this weekend that Curve was being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.

If a mooted price range of £100m-£120m turns out to be accurate, that would represent a lower valuation than the £133m Curve raised in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.

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That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.

It was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.

In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.

Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.

One source close to the prospective deal said that Lloyds had identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.

Lloyds is also said to believe that Curve would be a financially rational asset to own because of the fees Apple charges consumers to use its Apple Pay service.

In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.

Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform ThoughtMachine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.

The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 750 branches across Britain.

Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.

When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.

“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.

“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”

IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology…they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.

“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”

News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.

Lord Fink declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Saturday morning, while Curve did not respond to an enquiry sent by email.

Lloyds also declined to comment, while Stifel KBW could not be reached for comment.

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.

A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.

It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.

A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.

This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.

Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.

More on Inflation

Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.

A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture

It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.

“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.

But the picture was not all bad.

Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.

It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.

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The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.

While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.

Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.

“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.

Why did the economy shrink?

The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.

The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.

It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.

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UK economy remains fragile – and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

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UK economy remains fragile - and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.

However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.

This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.

Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.

Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.

Hangover from artificial growth

However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.

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In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.

Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.

Signs of recovery

Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.

“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.

A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.

Struggles ahead

It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.

The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.

Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.

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