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Scientists have long debated the greatest possible age of a person, with previous studies placing the limit at up to 150 years. But in the past 25 years, no one has surpassed the record for the world’s oldest person, held by Jean Louise Calment, who died at age 122 in 1997.

“This has led people to argue that the maximum life span has been reached,” David McCarthy (opens in new tab) , an assistant professor of risk management and insurance at the University of Georgia, told Live Science. In a new study, McCarthy and his colleagues say they’ve uncovered evidence that this longevity record will be broken within the next four decades. The team did not propose a maximum age that humans can live to, but rather, they used a mathematical model to project what mortality trends might look like in upcoming years. 

However, not everyone agrees with the team’s conclusions, experts told Live Science.

In the study, published March 29 in the journal PLOS One (opens in new tab) , the scientists analyzed mortality data from hundreds of millions of people in 19 countries who were born between the 1700s and the late 1900s, up to 1969. They tweaked an existing mathematical model to explore how the mortality rates among people ages 50 to 100 differed in people with different birth years. They then used this information to predict the ages that people may reach in the future. 

Related: Scientists find species that don’t seem to age. What does it mean for humans? 

In this model, mortality rates are assumed to increase exponentially beyond age 50 and then plateau at extremely old ages, McCarthy said. Such modeling can offer clues as to whether humans are nearing the maximum life span. If that were the case, you would expect any decreases in mortality rates in younger ages to be accompanied by mortality rates that increase more rapidly with age, to preserve the age limit, he explained. 

The researchers found that this was generally the case among those born before 1900. However, the mortality rate trends in people born between 1910 and 1950 appear to be different. This group reached the old age-related plateau at older ages than the pre-1900s group had, and they didn’t see sudden upticks in mortality at old ages to accompany decreases in mortality seen at younger ages. This finding hints we have not reached the maximum human life span, McCarthy said.

“In most of the countries we examined, we project that the maximum age will rise dramatically in the future,” McCarthy said. “This will lead to longevity records being broken in the next 40 years or so.” RELATED STORIES—People who live to 100 have unique gut bacteria signatures

—The longest living animals on Earth

—What are ‘Blue Zones,’ and do they really hold the secrets to a longer life?

For example, the model projects that a Japanese woman born in 1919 or later has at least a 50% chance of living to age 122 or older. And a Japanese woman born in 1940 or later has a 50% chance of surpassing age 130. (The model roughly covered the next 50 years, and didn’t predict that anyone in any country would surpass age 150 in that time.)

However, the model has a major limitation: It does not account for the biology of aging. In other words, in predicting who has a decent chance of living past age 122, the model doesn’t account for the fact that people’s cells age over time and they become more prone to age-related diseases, like cancer. It also doesn’t acknowledge how advances in medicine might extend human life span in the years to come.   

“While we find this demographic analysis interesting, we have long believed that addressing basic questions about whether, when and how aging stops are best settled by research with large animal cohorts maintained under stable laboratory conditions,” Michael Rose (opens in new tab) and Laurence Mueller (opens in new tab) , professors at the University of California, Irvine, who were not involved in the study, told Live Science in an email.

“The duration of life is at its heart a biological phenomenon, not a mathematical one,” said Stuart Jay Olshanky (opens in new tab) , a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago who was not involved in the research. 

McCarthy accepts these limitations, but “since the simple model we used fit historical mortality data extremely well,” he said he thinks it can still offer useful insight into future mortality patterns.

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Politics

Korean man arrested over $50M crypto-to-gold laundering scheme

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Korean man arrested over M crypto-to-gold laundering scheme

Korean man arrested over M crypto-to-gold laundering scheme

Thai police have arrested a South Korean man accused of helping a call center gang launder over $50 million in crypto into gold.

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Environment

5 ways I use my Chinese electric mini-excavator that I didn’t expect

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5 ways I use my Chinese electric mini-excavator that I didn’t expect

When I first got my hands on a Chinese electric mini-excavator, I thought it would be a fun little machine for digging a few holes and moving some dirt around. What I didn’t expect was just how useful and versatile it would become – and how often I’d reach for it for jobs that I never initially planned on tackling with a compact electric digger.

As I’ve watched all the fun reporting on new electric excavators, I’ve looked on in envy at what the current state of the art is… if you’ve got a quarter million bucks burning a hole in your hefty pocket. They are amazing machines, but I feel like the kid sitting outside of the sandbox and looking in, never able to play with the toys myself. But as it turns out, as long as you don’t need a massive machine, a mini-electric excavator wound up offering me many of the same benefits.

These battery-powered machines are cleaner, quieter, and cheaper to run than their diesel counterparts, which is great. That’s exactly why I started with NESHER in the first place. But what really surprised me was how many odd jobs around my parents’ acreage my little NX2500 excavator managed to take over. Here are five unexpected ways I’ve been using my Chinese electric mini-excavator.

1. Trench digging for irrigation

This was actually one of the first “off-script” jobs I tackled. My parents needed to run some irrigation lines through their property for a new garden setup, and while I originally planned to help my dad out the old-fashioned way (with a trenching shovel and a lot of sweat), I had my first mini-excavator delivered only a month ahead of time, and the timing couldn’t have been more perfect.

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I figured, “Why not?” and before I knew it, I was carving clean, even trenches in a fraction of the time. What would’ve taken an entire weekend by hand was done in about an hour or two, and with zero back pain. It’s a perfect example of how machines like this can turn exhausting, sweaty work into something you actually enjoy.

That picture was taken only part way through… that trench kept going to more planters further out!

Ever since I hurt my back a few years ago, a part of my rude welcome to how the mid-30s feels quite different from the mid-20s, I’ve been a little more aware of the kind of stress I put on my body. While I’m still quick to grab a shovel when I need one, the thought of hand trenching all day with a shovel versus an hour in the operator’s chair was a no-brainer.

2. Tree planting made way easier

Planting one tree is no big deal. Planting 10? Or 20? That’s starting to become a project. Planting 50? That’s a whole day with a shovel – or just a couple of hours with the mini-excavator.

The machine makes short work of digging perfect-sized holes, whether you’re dropping in fruit trees, palms, or trying to reforest a bare section of land.

Digging a hole and dropping the spoils on the sled

In the beginning, there was some trial and error, but I’ve learned that you can fine-tune your technique to get the hole shape just right, so the trees don’t settle awkwardly or too deeply. It’s still manual labor in a sense, since those joysticks don’t work themselves, but it’s a lot less manual than working the shovel all day!

I also found that I can use a simple yard sled to load the spoils onto, then use the UTV to drag it away to the spoil pile elsewhere on the property. If you don’t have a dump truck or mini-truck around, a yard sled is a cool little way to move heavy things easily by dragging them around.

3. Mulch moving machine

I hadn’t originally planned on using the excavator for this one, but I had a big pile of mulch that needed to get loaded into the back of my mini-truck to bring over to a planting area. Instead of shoveling it by hand or using buckets, I figured I’d see how the excavator would handle scooping and dropping. And it worked beautifully.

Is it a perfect loader bucket? Not really. But it does save a lot of time and effort compared to doing it by hand. For loose materials like mulch, compost, or even sandy soil, it’s a no-brainer.

Wild that all three of these machines are electric! We’re living in the future…

I still generally prefer to go with one of my loaders for bulk material like this, but in a pinch, the excavator can move 4-5x the amount I can per shovelfull, and each pass is a heck of a lot less exhausting on me!

4. Grading around trees for a shipping container pad

Here’s one I definitely didn’t expect to work so well. I had an area near some trees where I wanted to drop a shipping container. The ground was a mess – uneven, root-covered, and just generally not flat enough for the container to sit level.

I figured I’d give the excavator a shot at scraping and grading the area flat, and with a little finesse, it worked surprisingly well. It took some careful passes, and I wouldn’t call it laser-level precision, but it was more than good enough to get the container settled evenly and safely.

I’ve since put a second container next to it and built a roof structure between them, so now I have a 40×10-foot (12×3-meter) covered parking area between two shipping containers. I’d say it worked quite well!

5. Hoisting and lifting logs (and other heavy stuff)

Now this one’s a bit outside the box – and outside the manual. These machines aren’t really designed for lifting heavy objects the way a larger excavator or crane is, but they’re surprisingly capable if you’re smart about it.

I’ve hoisted several hundred pounds with mine, like awkward loads or cut log sections. A lifting strap slung over the bucket makes it easy to mount weird-shaped things, and you just have to be careful about swinging around too quickly.

I added a manual thumb attachment, and that proved to be a real game-changer. I can now pick up logs and branches, spin them around, and drop them into the bed of the mini-truck like a tiny mobile crane. Again, one or two logs are easy enough to toss by hand. But when a tree or two comes down after a storm and there are 20 or 30 logs, my back is going to thank me for not trying to toss each one by hand.

Final thoughts

It’s easy to write off these Chinese electric mini-excavators as toys or underpowered knock-offs. But after putting on real-world use for everything from planting trees to loading mulch and lifting logs, I can say they’ve proven themselves. No, they won’t replace a full-size backhoe or dozer, but they’re not trying to. These things are for the small jobs – the ones that wear you out if you try to do them by hand and don’t justify calling in a pro crew. They’re for the homesteaders, not the contractors.

Add in the fact that they’re electric – so you can run them in a garage or barn without worrying about fumes –and you’ve got a pretty compelling machine for landowners, landscapers, hobby farmers, or anyone who wants a quiet, capable, compact helper.

They aren’t without their downsides. Run times are only between 4-6 hours, and the roughly 1 mph (0.6 km/h) walking speed is excruciatingly slow when you need to travel to the farther flung areas of the property. But at least they’re relatively quiet and vibration-free, not to mention emission-free, for that long traverse!

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Three people in a life-threatening condition after ‘arson attack’ at restaurant

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Three people in a life-threatening condition after 'arson attack' at restaurant

Three people are in a life-threatening condition after a suspected arson attack at a restaurant in Ilford, say police.

Five people – three women and two men – were injured in the fire, which broke out shortly after 9pm on Friday at Indian Aroma on Woodford Avenue, Gants Hill.

No arrests have been made.

Hospital porter Edward Thawe, 43, went to help with his son after hearing screams from his nearby home.

Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures
Image:
Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures

He described the scene as “horrible” and “more than scary and the sort of thing that you don’t want to look at twice”.

He said: “I heard screaming and people saying they had called the police.”

He said he saw a woman and a severely burned man who may have been customers.

More on Metropolitan Police

He said the man’s “whole body was burnt”, including his shirt, but he was still wearing his trousers.

After being treated at the scene by paramedics from the London Ambulance Service, the victims were taken to hospital.

Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures
Image:
Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures

Nine others were able to get out beforehand, London Fire Brigade (LFB) said in a statement.

“The brigade’s control officers received seven calls about the fire and mobilised crews from Ilford, Hainault, Leytonstone and Woodford fire stations to the scene. The fire was extinguished by 10.32pm,” said an LFB spokesperson.

“We understand this incident will cause concern within the community. My team of specialist detectives are working at speed to piece the incident together,” said Detective Chief Inspector Mark Rogers, of the Met’s Central Specialist Crime North unit.

“Locals can expect to see a large police presence in the area. If you have any concerns, please speak to those officers on the ground.”

Read more from Sky News:
What Epstein’s right-hand woman says about Prince Andrew
Third arrest over sex toy throwing at women’s basketball games
Why Donald Trump believes he ‘deserves the Nobel Peace Prize’

The London Ambulance Service told Sky News: “We sent resources to the scene, including ambulance crews, an advanced paramedic, an incident response officer and paramedics from our hazardous area response team.

Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures
Image:
Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures

“We treated five people for burns and smoke inhalation. We took two patients to a major trauma centre and three others to local hospitals.”

Health secretary Wes Streeting, who is the MP for Ilford North, posted on X to thank the emergency services for their response to the fire.

He also asked his constituents to “please avoid the area for now”.

Anyone with information is urged to contact the Met via 101, quoting 7559/22AUG. If you wish to remain anonymous, please speak with Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

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