We’re nowhere near reaching the maximum human life span, controversial study suggests

Published

2 years ago

March 30, 2023

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Scientists have long debated the greatest possible age of a person, with previous studies placing the limit at up to 150 years. But in the past 25 years, no one has surpassed the record for the world’s oldest person, held by Jean Louise Calment, who died at age 122 in 1997.

“This has led people to argue that the maximum life span has been reached,” David McCarthy (opens in new tab) , an assistant professor of risk management and insurance at the University of Georgia, told Live Science. In a new study, McCarthy and his colleagues say they’ve uncovered evidence that this longevity record will be broken within the next four decades. The team did not propose a maximum age that humans can live to, but rather, they used a mathematical model to project what mortality trends might look like in upcoming years.

However, not everyone agrees with the team’s conclusions, experts told Live Science.

In the study, published March 29 in the journal PLOS One (opens in new tab) , the scientists analyzed mortality data from hundreds of millions of people in 19 countries who were born between the 1700s and the late 1900s, up to 1969. They tweaked an existing mathematical model to explore how the mortality rates among people ages 50 to 100 differed in people with different birth years. They then used this information to predict the ages that people may reach in the future.

Related: Scientists find species that don’t seem to age. What does it mean for humans?

In this model, mortality rates are assumed to increase exponentially beyond age 50 and then plateau at extremely old ages, McCarthy said. Such modeling can offer clues as to whether humans are nearing the maximum life span. If that were the case, you would expect any decreases in mortality rates in younger ages to be accompanied by mortality rates that increase more rapidly with age, to preserve the age limit, he explained.

The researchers found that this was generally the case among those born before 1900. However, the mortality rate trends in people born between 1910 and 1950 appear to be different. This group reached the old age-related plateau at older ages than the pre-1900s group had, and they didn’t see sudden upticks in mortality at old ages to accompany decreases in mortality seen at younger ages. This finding hints we have not reached the maximum human life span, McCarthy said.

“In most of the countries we examined, we project that the maximum age will rise dramatically in the future,” McCarthy said. “This will lead to longevity records being broken in the next 40 years or so.” RELATED STORIES—People who live to 100 have unique gut bacteria signatures

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For example, the model projects that a Japanese woman born in 1919 or later has at least a 50% chance of living to age 122 or older. And a Japanese woman born in 1940 or later has a 50% chance of surpassing age 130. (The model roughly covered the next 50 years, and didn’t predict that anyone in any country would surpass age 150 in that time.)

However, the model has a major limitation: It does not account for the biology of aging. In other words, in predicting who has a decent chance of living past age 122, the model doesn’t account for the fact that people’s cells age over time and they become more prone to age-related diseases, like cancer. It also doesn’t acknowledge how advances in medicine might extend human life span in the years to come.

“While we find this demographic analysis interesting, we have long believed that addressing basic questions about whether, when and how aging stops are best settled by research with large animal cohorts maintained under stable laboratory conditions,” Michael Rose (opens in new tab) and Laurence Mueller (opens in new tab) , professors at the University of California, Irvine, who were not involved in the study, told Live Science in an email.

“The duration of life is at its heart a biological phenomenon, not a mathematical one,” said Stuart Jay Olshanky (opens in new tab) , a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago who was not involved in the research.

McCarthy accepts these limitations, but “since the simple model we used fit historical mortality data extremely well,” he said he thinks it can still offer useful insight into future mortality patterns.

Politics

Starmer ran the gauntlet with Trump but just about emerged intact

Published

3 hours ago

July 28, 2025

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Starmer ran the gauntlet with Trump but just about emerged intact

When TV cameras are let in to film world leaders meeting in person, the resulting footage is usually incredibly boring for journalists and incredibly safe for politicians.

Not with Donald Trump.

Sir Keir Starmer ran the gauntlet on Monday.

Trump latest: President treats PM to a ride on Air Force One

Put through a total of almost 90 minutes of televised questioning alongside the American leader, it was his diciest encounter with the president yet.

But he still just about emerged intact.

For a start, he can claim substantive policy wins after Trump announced extra pressure on Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire and dialled up the concern over the devastating scenes coming from Gaza.

There were awkward moments aplenty though.

Top of the list is Mr Trump’s trashing of the prime minister’s Labour colleague, London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan.

But more important than that, Monday’s meeting was the clearest representation of the political gulf that separates the two leaders.

“He’s slightly more liberal than me,” Mr Trump said of Sir Keir when he arrived in Scotland.

What an understatement.

On green energy, immigration, taxation and online regulation, the differences were clear to see.

Sir Keir just about managed to paper over the cracks by chuckling at times, choosing his interventions carefully and always attempting to sound eminently reasonable.

At times, it had the energy of a man being forced to grin and bear inappropriate comments from his in-laws at an important family dinner.

But hey, it stopped a full Trump implosion – so I suppose that’s a win.

My main takeaway from this Scotland visit though is not so much the political gulf present between the two men, but the gulf in power.

Sir Keir flew the length of the country he leads to be the guest at the visiting president’s resort.

He was then forced to sit through more than an hour of uncontrolled, freewheeling questioning from a man most of his party and voters despise, during which he was offered unsolicited advice on how to beat Nigel Farage and criticised (albeit indirectly) on key planks of his government’s policy platform.

In return he got warm words about him (and his wife) and relatively incremental announcements on two foreign policy priorities.

So why does he do it?

Because, to borrow a quote from a popular American political TV series: “Air Force One is a big plane and it makes a hell of a noise when it lands on your head.”

World

Israeli human rights organisations accuse country of genocide

Published

3 hours ago

July 28, 2025

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Israeli human rights organisations accuse country of genocide

Two Israeli human rights organisations have said the country is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

In reports published on Monday, B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) said Israel was carrying out “coordinated, deliberate action to destroy Palestinian society in the Gaza Strip”.

The two groups are the first major voices within Israeli society to make such accusations against the state during nearly 22 months of war against Hamas.

Israel has vehemently denied claims of genocide. David Mencer, a spokesperson for the government, called the allegation by the rights groups “baseless”.

He said: “There is no intent, (which is) key for the charge of genocide… it simply doesn’t make sense for a country to send in 1.9 million tonnes of aid, most of that being food, if there is an intent of genocide.”

B’Tselem director Yuli Novak called for urgent action, saying: “What we see is a clear, intentional attack on civilians in order to destroy a group.”

The organisation’s report “is one we never imagined we would have to write,” Ms Novak said. “The people of Gaza have been displaced, bombed, and starved, left completely stripped of their humanity and rights.”

PHR said Israel’s military campaign shows evidence of a “deliberate and systemic dismantling of Gaza’s health and life-sustaining systems”.

Both organisations said Israel’s Western allies were enabling the genocidal campaign, and shared responsibility for suffering in Gaza.

“It couldn’t happen without the support of the Western world,” Ms Novak said. “Any leader that is not doing whatever they can to stop it is part of this horror.”

Hamas said the reports by the two groups were a “clear and unambiguous testimony from within Israeli society itself regarding the grave crimes perpetrated by the occupation regime against our people”.

Dire humanitarian conditions

Since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza following the deadly Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, nearly 60,000 people – mostly civilians – have been killed, according to Gaza health officials.

Much of the infrastructure has been destroyed, and nearly the whole population of more than two million has been displaced.

An increasing number of people in Gaza are also dying from starvation and malnutrition, according to Gaza health authorities.

On Monday, the Gaza health ministry reported that at least 14 people had died from starvation and malnutrition in the past 24 hours, raising the total number of hunger-related deaths during the war to 147.

Among the victims were 88 children, with most of the deaths occurring in recent weeks.

UN agencies say the territory is running out of food for its people and accuse Israel of not allowing enough aid deliveries to the enclave. Israel denies those claims.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said “there is no starvation in Gaza” and vowed to fight on against Hamas.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that many in Gaza are facing starvation and implied that Israel could take further steps to improve humanitarian access.

Israel has repeatedly said its actions in Gaza are in self-defence, placing full responsibility for civilian casualties on Hamas. It cites the militant group’s refusal to release hostages, surrender, or stop operating within civilian areas – allegations that Hamas denies.

UK

Two killed in stabbing at business premises in London

Published

3 hours ago

July 28, 2025

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Two killed in stabbing at business premises in London

Two men have died after a stabbing in central London.

Police were called to a business premises in Long Lane, Southwark, at 1pm on Monday, where they found four people had been stabbed.

A 58-year-old man died at the scene while three others were taken to hospital, the Metropolitan Police said. These included a 27-year-old man who has since died.

A third man, who is in his thirties, remains in hospital with injuries described as non-life-threatening.

Another man in his thirties, who has been detained in connection with the incident, remains in a life-threatening condition in hospital.

Detective Chief Superintendent Emma Bond said: “Our investigation is in the early stages and we are working hard to understand the full circumstances of this shocking incident.

“At this point, we do not believe it to be terrorism-related and there is no further risk to the public.”