Oddsmakers, bettors trying to gauge impact of new MLB rules
Major League Baseball’s new rules didn’t impact scoring significantly in spring training, and oddsmakers began the season without adjusting their numbers on runs scored, while taking a wait-and-see approach to the pitch clock and elimination of the infield shift.
MLB games have averaged 9.1 runs scored over the past five seasons. Last year’s 8.57 runs per game was the lowest since 2015. Spring training games, with the new rules implemented, averaged 10.1 runs, down slightly from last year.
Pitchers have 15 seconds to throw a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds with a runner on base. Hitters must be in the batter’s box with eight seconds on the pitch clock. Hitters are allowed one timeout per at-bat to reset the pitch clock. Pitchers are restricted to stepping off the rubber only twice per plate appearance, including for pickoff attempts. The rule resets if a runner advances during the same plate appearance. And larger bases are being used to increase the success rate on steals.
“We don’t really see a direct correlation from the pitch clock to more scoring,” said Randy Blum, who oversees baseball odds for the SuperBook in Las Vegas. “We were not planning on adjusting our totals off that.”
Halvor England, BetMGM’s lead baseball trader, expects the elimination of the traditional shift to increase scoring marginally, but also believes pitchers will have more control over the hitter during an at-bat because of the pitch clock.
“I think it’s going to be a little more offsetting than people realize, almost a wash,” Halvor said. “I don’t anticipate there to be less scoring overall, but on a game-to-game basis, it’s going to be very marginal.”
The bigger bases being used this season, however, are a difference-maker in bookmakers’ and bettors’ eyes. Steals were up notably in success rate and volume — nearly double from last spring training — this year. Bettors expect the trend to continue.
The SuperBook offered a season-long prop on the over/under on most stolen bases by an individual player. Blum said the book opened the total at 50.5, a number that reflected about four to five more stolen bases than if the rule had not been in place. Still, sharp bettors took the over, causing the SuperBook to move the number to 52.5.
“That’s one thing [larger bases] that we did adjust our numbers on based on the rule changes, and it seems to be something that the bettors are taking note of also,” Blum said. “That was not necessarily a prop that in the past would get a lot of attention either way.”
Joe Fortuna, a veteran professional bettor and baseball fan, said he did edge his numbers up on runs scored because of the rule changes and was looking to bet overs early in the season for multiple reasons, including potential pitchers’ fatigue while working with the pitch clock.
“These guys, in April, might be a little bit out of shape, so I don’t know if running 100 mph pitches up there every 15 seconds will make them tire out faster,” Fortuna said. “The different rules all seemed to lean toward hitting to us.”
Fortuna also examined which hitters faced the most infield shifts last season and pointed out left-handed batters like San Diego’s Juan Soto, Texas’ Corey Seager and Kansas City’s Vinnie Pasquantino as ones who could benefit from its elimination.
“The shift is huge to me,” Fortuna said. “We actually bet on Pasquantino to win MVP today at 250-1. He batted .295 last year and faced 93.8% three-man shifts. That was the highest.”
For now, only one day into the season, bettors and bookmakers will be watching closely to see if there are any trends related to the new rule changes, but early on, it’ll be a guessing game.
“There will be some advantage for bettors if they can figure it all out quicker than the market,” Halvor said.
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Kristen Shilton
The Vancouver Canucks have come to terms with forward Brock Boeser on a new seven-year contract, carrying a $7.25 million AAV.
Canucks GM Patrik Allvin announced the deal on Tuesday during the first hour of NHL free agency. Boeser, 28, was an unrestricted free agent on a previously expiring contract.
Drafted by Vancouver 23rd overall in the 2015 NHL draft, Boeser has collected 204 goals and 434 points in 554 games with the Canucks to date. A top-six scoring threat, Boeser has elite playmaking skills and the potential to produce big numbers offensively. He had his best year offensively in 2023-24, producing 40 goals and 73 points in 81 games.
Boeser didn’t hit those marks again last season — settling for 25 goals and 50 points in 75 games — but was still second amongst teammates in output. He also plays a prominent role on Vancouver’s power play and when he can generate opportunities at 5-on-5, he is a true difference-maker up front for the Canucks.
The extension is a happy ending for Vancouver and Boeser. When the regular season ended, Boeser admitted “it’s tough to say” whether he’d be back with the Canucks. Boeser reportedly turned down a previous five-year extension offer with the club and Allvin subsequently looked into deals for him at the March trade deadline, with no takers. Boeser looked — and sounded — poised to explore his options on the open market.
Ultimately, Boeser decided to stay put by committing the best years of his career to the Canucks.
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Ryan S. Clark
Washington Capitals defenseman Martin Fehervary signed a seven-year extension through the 2032-33 season that is worth $6 million annually, the team announced Tuesday.
Fehervary, who had one year of team control remaining, will enter the final season of a three-year bridge deal that will see him make $2.675 million before his new contract begins at the start of the 2026-27 season.
He finished the season with five goals and a career-high 25 points while logging 19 minutes. Fehervary also played a crucial role in the Capitals’ penalty kill by finishing with 245 short-handed minutes for a penalty kill that was fifth in the NHL with an 82% success rate.
Securing the 25-year-old Fehervary to a long-term deal means the Capitals now have seven players who have more than three years remaining on their current contracts.
It also means the Capitals front office has one less decision to make ahead of what is expected to be an active offseason in 2026 that will see the club have what PuckPedia projects to be $39.25 million in cap space.
That’s also the same offseason in which captain and NHL all-time leading goal scorer Alex Ovechkin‘s contract will come off their books along with that of defenseman John Carlson.
But until then, the Capitals have their entire top-six defensive unit under contract as they seek to improve upon a 2024-25 season that saw them finish atop the Metropolitan Division with 111 points before they lost in the Eastern Conference semifinal to the Carolina Hurricanes in five games.
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