Population growth could grind to a halt by 2050, before decreasing to as little as 6 billion humans on Earth in 2100, a new analysis of birth trends has revealed.
The study, commissioned by the nonprofit organization The Club of Rome, predicts that if current trends continue, the world’s population, which is currently 7.96 billion (opens in new tab) , will peak at 8.6 billion in the middle of the century before declining by nearly 2 billion before the century’s end.
The forecast is both good and bad news for humanity: A plummeting human population will slightly alleviate Earth’s environmental problems, but it is far from being the most important factor in solving them.
And falling populations will make humanity older as a whole and lower the proportion of working-age people, placing an even greater burden on the young to finance health care and pensions. The researchers — members of the Earth4All collective (opens in new tab) , which is made up of environmental scientists and economists — published their findings March 27 in a working paper (opens in new tab) .
Related: Why global population growth will grind to a halt by 2100
“We know rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” Per Espen Stoknes (opens in new tab) , director of the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School and the project lead of Earth4All, said in a statement (opens in new tab) . “Fertility rates fall as girls get access to education and women are economically empowered and have access to better healthcare.”
The study is a follow-up to The Club of Rome’s 1972 Limits to Growth study, which warned the world of an imminent “population bomb.” The new result diverges from other recent population forecasts. For instance, in 2022, the United Nations estimated (opens in new tab) that the world population would reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and rise to 10.4 billion by 2100. U.N. estimates from a decade ago suggested the population would reach 11 billion (opens in new tab) .RELATED STORIES—How many people are in the world?
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Other models forecast population growth based on factors that affect women’s social independence and bodily autonomy, such as access to education and contraception. Earth4All’s model is slightly more complex, integrating variables connected to the environment and the economy. These include energy abundance, inequality, food production, income levels and the impacts of future global warming.
The model predicted two possible outcomes for the future human population. The first, “business-as-usual” case — in which governments continue on their current trajectories of inaction, creating ecologically fragile communities vulnerable to regional collapses — would see populations rise to 9 billion people by 2050 and decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. The second, more optimistic scenario — in which governments invest in education, improved equality and green transitions — would result in 8.5 billion people on the planet by the century’s halfway point and 6 billion by 2100.
The team also investigated the connection between population sizes and the planet’s ability to sustain human populations. They found that, contrary to popular Malthusian narratives, population size is not the key factor driving climate change. Instead, they pinned the blame on high levels of consumption by the world’s richest individuals, which they say must be reduced.
“Humanity’s main problem is luxury carbon and biosphere consumption, not population,” Jorgen Randers (opens in new tab) , one of the modelers at the Norwegian School of Business and a member of Earth4All, said in the statement. “The places where population is rising fastest have extremely small environmental footprints per person compared with the places that reached peak population many decades ago.”
If you know a teacher, or you are a teacher, you’ll understand that many in the profession consider their jobs one of the best in the world, while also acknowledging it can be one of the most stressful.
Teaching in a war zone takes it to another level on both fronts.
But imagine teaching in a war zone in say the London Underground or the Paris or New York metros?
Well, that’s exactly what is happening in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city – a city attacked by Russia on a constant basis.
In 2023, the authorities banned children from being taught in regular school buildings here because of the threat they were under from missile strikes.
So Kharkiv city and its education department started working on a plan.
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That plan has concluded with the construction of six schools in six metro stations, teaching 4,800 children daily whose families haven’t fled the war.
Intrigued by this new educational experiment, as it’s still considered, we were told to meet at the University metro station in the centre of the city and wait to be taken to the school.
Soviet-era metro stations, and particularly the platforms, are universally grand and ornate, although Ukraine’s are slightly more modest.
Pedestrian walkways though are always crammed with florists, newspaper stands, mobile phone shops and cafes, and Kharkiv’s are no different.
What is different though is that next to the main platform entrance, an adjacent passageway has been sealed off by a white wall with three doors built into it.
We were ushered inside, past a guard and into a concourse with two desks.
In front of us, we could see a wide staircase leading to a long corridor. Above us, large, shiny silver metal tubes stretched into the distance, pumping in air from above ground.
Lining the corridor, we could see a series of white interconnecting cabins, all brightly lit, and from them, we could hear the sounds of children laughing, music, and teachers conducting class in this strange subterranean school.
Perhaps the only school in the world with one corridor.
A door to one of the classes opened, and in pairs, a class of six and seven-year-olds emerged – their teacher at the front and an assistant at the rear.
They’re heading to the bathroom for a toilet break, the staff must keep an eye on them.
If any of the children were to make it out of the school, they could easily get lost in the underground system.
The pupils are spread across seven classrooms with a mix of yellow and green desks and chairs, and walls decorated with bright pictures like rainbows, sunshine and sunflowers, to try to create a cheery atmosphere.
“At first, the children were bewildered by studying here, it felt unfamiliar to them, but interacting with each other and with their teachers helped them to adapt,” Iryna Tarasenko from Kharkiv’s education department told me.
Iryna is showing me around the school. They feel it’s their way of contributing to the war effort.
She said: “In the summer of 2023, the Defence Council didn’t permit children to study in regular school buildings, so, we had to find a solution. This is our frontline – our educational frontline.”
There are of course health concerns for both the teachers and the pupils spending so much time underground, so medical examinations are done on a regular basis.
It is an opportunity for doctors and behavioural specialists to monitor the effects of this war on them.
Dmytro Mitelyov is the neurologist on duty monitoring the children’s behaviour, checking for any signs of stress – physical and mental.
He gently asks each child how they’re feeling, and asks if they have any aches and pains.
“These are children who haven’t left Kharkiv since the war began, they live in a constant state of stress, multifaceted stress caused by a range of factors. They are exposed to things they see and hear, like alarms, explosions, and they feel it all,” Dmytro told me.
“When these children grow older, all the trauma they’ve endured during their formative years can, unfortunately, leave a lasting and serious imprint on their mental health. They haven’t had a healthy, carefree childhood – the kind where they can learn, play, and feel safe as children normally would.”
As the first group’s school day ends, children from one of Kharkiv’s most bombed districts, wrap up warm before being led to the surface to catch a school bus to their old school – which was hit by a missile.
It’s still where they meet their parents for normal pick-up.
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We jump on the bus with them for the journey past destroyed government buildings, shopping centres and restaurants.
When the air raid suddenly sounds, I look around to see how the children and teachers on this bus will react.
They barely flinch it’s so common.
“People have, to some extent, adapted,” one of the headmistresses, Olena Nikolienko, said.
“If we see missiles coming, heaven forbid, we’ll stop near a designated shelter, following our evacuation plan, and that’s where the children will go for cover.”
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Remember, these children are safe underground at school, up here they are not.
During the bus ride, 10-year-old Alisa began quietly sobbing. Her teacher told me her grandfather was killed four months ago on the frontline, and since then she has been prone to tears.
Alisa’s teacher comforted her and told her everything would be ok.
It feels like everyone here has to carry their own sadness.
Everyone.
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0:18
‘Ukraine war will end sooner under Trump’
Parents, standing in the first snowfall of the season, greet the children as they get off the bus.
The kids run off the bus, and start throwing snowballs at each other, enjoying this precious moment.
Joe Biden has met with Xi Jinping for the last time as US president, where the Chinese leader said he is “ready to work” with Donald Trump.
Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru, Mr Biden said the US and China’s relationship should be about “competition, not conflict”.
“We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank,” he said.
“We’ve never kidded one another. These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict.
“We’ve been level with one another. I think that’s vital.”
But despite Mr Trump’s proposed measures, Mr Xi said his country’s goal “of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged”.
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“Our commitment to mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and… cooperation as principles for handling China-US relations remains unchanged,” he added.
The Chinese president then said the country is “ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition”.
Neither Mr Xi nor Mr Biden responded to a question about whether there were concerns about Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs.
The president-elect has also named several China hawks to his transition team, such as Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Representative Mike Waltz as national security adviser.
Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson says the health scare in June, which forced the postponement of his boxing match with Jake Paul, almost cost him his life.
“I almost died in June,” Tyson wrote on X, adding that he “had 8 blood transfusions. Lost half my blood and 25lbs in hospital”.
The 58-year-old, who lost to the YouTuber-turned-boxer in a unanimous points decision in Texas, tweeted that the situation was far worse than people had realised.
Following Tyson’s recovery, after reportedly suffering an ulcer flareup, he reflected on the result of the fight.
“This is one of those situations when you lost but still won… no regrets to get in the ring one last time,” he said.
That contrasts with Tyson’s comments after the match in which he refused to confirm whether it would be his last fight.
“It depends on the situation,” Tyson said before suggesting a fight with Paul’s older brother, Logan Paul, who was standing near him in the ring.
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Critics argued that the revised match – which involved fewer and shortened rounds, as well as heavier gloves – fell short of entertaining.
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Paul beats Tyson by unanimous decision
Some claimed it appeared more like a glorified sparring session.
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It was Tyson’s first sanctioned pro bout since 2005, when he lost to Kevin McBride and then went into retirement – only briefly reappearing for an exhibition match in 2020 against Roy Jones Jr.
Paul has plenty to prove
Paul, 27, still has plenty to prove. The social media influencer wants to be a championship fighter and compete for a championship belt within two years. “I think it could happen in the next 24 months,” Paul said.
“I truly, truly believe in my skills and my ability and my power. And the cruiserweight division is seemingly open for the taking on that timeline,” he added.
The only professional match he has lost so far has been to Tommy Fury, the less-accomplished brother of former heavyweight champion Tyson Fury.
But there are questions about when Paul will fight a contender in his prime, as opposed to former champions or mixed martial artists.
Intriguingly, in the days before his fight with Tyson, Paul mentioned super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez, considered one of the best boxers in the world.
According to reports, the Texas bout earned Paul $40m (£31.7m) versus $20m (£15.8m) for Tyson.
Netflix said 60 million households worldwide viewed the contest on its streaming platform, and nearly 50 million tuned in to watch the undercard which saw Ireland’s Katie Taylor beat Puerto Rico’s Amanda Serrano.
Even so there were some technical glitches. More than 90,000 users reported problems on Netflix at its peak, according to the website Downdetector, which tracks outages.