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Population growth could grind to a halt by 2050, before decreasing to as little as 6 billion humans on Earth in 2100, a new analysis of birth trends has revealed.

The study, commissioned by the nonprofit organization The Club of Rome, predicts that if current trends continue, the world’s population, which is currently 7.96 billion (opens in new tab) , will peak at 8.6 billion in the middle of the century before declining by nearly 2 billion before the century’s end. 

The forecast is both good and bad news for humanity: A plummeting human population will slightly alleviate Earth’s environmental problems, but it is far from being the most important factor in solving them. 

And falling populations will make humanity older as a whole and lower the proportion of working-age people, placing an even greater burden on the young to finance health care and pensions. The researchers — members of the Earth4All collective (opens in new tab) , which is made up of environmental scientists and economists — published their findings March 27 in a working paper (opens in new tab) .

Related: Why global population growth will grind to a halt by 2100

“We know rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” Per Espen Stoknes (opens in new tab) , director of the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School and the project lead of Earth4All, said in a statement (opens in new tab) . “Fertility rates fall as girls get access to education and women are economically empowered and have access to better healthcare.” 

The study is a follow-up to The Club of Rome’s 1972 Limits to Growth study, which warned the world of an imminent “population bomb.” The new result diverges from other recent population forecasts. For instance, in 2022, the United Nations estimated (opens in new tab) that the world population would reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and rise to 10.4 billion by 2100. U.N. estimates from a decade ago suggested the population would reach 11 billion (opens in new tab) .RELATED STORIES—How many people are in the world?

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Other models forecast population growth based on factors that affect women’s social independence and bodily autonomy, such as access to education and contraception. Earth4All’s model is slightly more complex, integrating variables connected to the environment and the economy. These include energy abundance, inequality, food production, income levels and the impacts of future global warming.

The model predicted two possible outcomes for the future human population. The first, “business-as-usual” case — in which governments continue on their current trajectories of inaction, creating ecologically fragile communities vulnerable to regional collapses — would see populations rise to 9 billion people by 2050 and decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. The second, more optimistic scenario — in which governments invest in education, improved equality and green transitions — would result in 8.5 billion people on the planet by the century’s halfway point and 6 billion by 2100.

The team also investigated the connection between population sizes and the planet’s ability to sustain human populations. They found that, contrary to popular Malthusian narratives, population size is not the key factor driving climate change. Instead, they pinned the blame on high levels of consumption by the world’s richest individuals, which they say must be reduced.

“Humanity’s main problem is luxury carbon and biosphere consumption, not population,” Jorgen Randers (opens in new tab) , one of the modelers at the Norwegian School of Business and a member of Earth4All, said in the statement. “The places where population is rising fastest have extremely small environmental footprints per person compared with the places that reached peak population many decades ago.”

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Sources: Kings expected to name Holland next GM

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Sources: Kings expected to name Holland next GM

Ken Holland, who won four Stanley Cups as an executive with the Detroit Red Wings, is expected to become the next general manager of the Los Angeles Kings, multiple NHL sources told ESPN on Monday, confirming a report.

Inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame as a builder in 2020, Holland replaces Rob Blake, the Kings’ general manager and vice president of hockey operations whose contract was not renewed after a fourth straight first-round playoff exit.

An announcement is expected later this week. Rod Pedersen, host of “The Rod Pedersen Show,” first reported the news.

Holland, 69, was the executive vice president and general manager of the Red Wings from 1997 through 2019, winning four Stanley Cups for the franchise. He was bumped upstairs in 2019 to senior vice president, clearing the way for Steve Yzerman to become the team’s general manager.

That promotion lasted only a month, as Holland left to take over the Edmonton Oilers as general manager and president of hockey operations. Powered by stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the team made the conference finals in 2022 and 2024, losing in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last year with a roster Holland constructed. Among his key acquisitions were forward Zach Hyman (free agent) and defensemen Mattias Ekholm (via trade with Nashville) and Philip Broberg (drafted eighth in 2019). The Oilers made the playoffs in all five seasons of Holland’s tenure.

Holland’s five-year contract with the Oilers expired on July 1, 2024. Edmonton eventually hired former Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman to replace him. Since then, Holland had been working as a consultant to the NHL’s hockey operations department.

Sources told ESPN that Holland had been considering a front office role with the New York Islanders, either as team president, general manager or both. Former Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin, a senior adviser for the Kings who many believed might be their next general manager, is in the mix for the Islanders’ openings.

Kings president Luc Robitaille played for Holland’s Red Wings from 2001-2003, winning his only Stanley Cup as a player in 2002. He will now reconnect with Holland, who will take over a Kings roster that features holdovers from their Stanley Cup wins in 2012 and 2014 (Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty), scorers in their prime (Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala), young players on the rise (Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke) and goalie Darcy Kuemper, who was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy this season.

But Los Angeles has failed to advance past the first round of the playoffs since 2014. The Kings have lost four straight first-round series to the Oilers — conveniently, Holland’s former team — including their six-game defeat this postseason.

Holland will now determine the fate of Jim Hiller, who finished his first season as Kings head coach after serving on an interim basis in 2023-24. Hiller was an assistant coach with the Red Wings for one season (2014-15) during Holland’s time in Detroit.

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Canes use ‘huge’ late goals to push Caps to brink

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Canes use 'huge' late goals to push Caps to brink

RALEIGH, N..C. — The Carolina Hurricanes twice found their two-goal margin halved in the third period of their latest playoff game with the Washington Capitals.

Each time they found a prompt response.

And that pushed the Hurricanes to within a win of the Eastern Conference finals for the second time in three seasons.

Taylor Hall scored on a breakaway chance roughly three minutes after the Washington Capitals scored their first goal, then Sean Walker added one minutes after NHL all-time goals leader Alex Ovechkin struck with a 5-on-3 one-timer. Those kept the Hurricanes in control on the way to a 5-2 win Monday night, securing a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven second-round series.

“We get an individual effort, and that’s really what those were, good plays,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “But burying it, finishing your chances at a crucial time in the game. … Both of those goals were huge for us.”

Both Hall and Walker finished with two points, with Walker getting the second assist on Hall’s score and Hall returning the favor by springing Walker’s surge up the ice on the way to his first career postseason goal. But the timing of the goals stood out, with each blunting the momentum of a Washington team that had been shutout for five straight periods going back to Saturday’s 4-0 loss in Game 3.

Carolina carried a 2-0 lead into the third before Jakob Chychrun beat Frederik Andersen on a feed from Matt Roy after Roy had denied Carolina’s chance to clear the zone. That score came at the 5:18 mark of the third to add a jolt of tension rippling through the Lenovo Center after Carolina had kept a firm grip on the game to that point.

But Hall — acquired in January in the blockbuster deal that brought in Mikko Rantanen as the headliner — made a veteran read to blunt that momentum.

After being knocked to the ice in the offensive zone, Hall was getting up as the Capitals pushed the puck toward the other end. But as Hall got to center ice, he was alone — Washington coach Spencer Carbery said the defense lost track of Hall behind the forecheck and were too deep in the zone — and the Hurricanes were on the verge of collecting the puck as it went around the end wall.

So Hall turned in back toward the blue line, straddling it long enough to stay onside until Jack Roslovic‘s long pass arrived to spring the breakaway chance.

“Yeah, everyone’s asking me if I was cheating for offense,” Hall said, adding; “I thought it was just something to try.”

Hall skated in and beat Logan Thompson to the glove side at the 8:24 mark, pushing the margin back to 3-1.

“It’s a read, we had possession of the puck,” Brind’Amour said. “So that’s actually a good play by him.”

The Capitals again kept the pressure on with Ovechkin’s blast past Andersen on a two-man advantage at the 12:14 mark, dampening the rowdy zeal in Carolina’s home arena. But that’s when Hall and Walker teamed up for the goal that would reassert control.

It started on a puck battle and the unusual sight of Washington’s Rasmus Sandin skating in to get the puck from Walker, only to get the blade of his stick stuck in a gap along the boards. Walker got to his feet as Hall collected the puck, then flipped a pass to Walker as he charged up the left side.

Walker hesitated to cut inside Roslovic toward the slot and beat Thompson at the 16:45 mark, pushing the lead back to 4-2 in what became a backbreaking score.

“I feel like they were backchecking really hard, so I kind of just read that,” Walker said. “Tried to be patient. Once I stepped inside, I felt like I had a good lane so I shot it, and just happy it went in.”

Ovechkin’s blast got the NHL’s career goals leader on the scoresheet for the first time this series. Thompson finished with 32 saves.

“We’re giving ourselves some opportunities, we’re just not executing, making the play, whatever you want to call it,” Washington coach Spencer Carbery said. “And making some mistakes — and they’re capitalizing.”

To that point, the Eastern Conference’s top seed got a quick start after a Game 3 shutout, starting with Connor McMichael getting a 1-on-1 chance on Andersen in the opening minute. Aliaksei Protas followed by ringing the right post shortly after.

Washington also managed only one shot on goal during a 4-minute power play, the first 3½ minutes of those coming to close the first period.

“Their penalty kill is excellent, best in the league, has been for the last, whatever, five years call it,” Carbery said. “But it can’t look like that. It cannot look like that.”

Andrei Svechnikov added the empty-net clincher less than a minute later to deny Washington’s bid to retake home-ice advantage, the capper to Carolina’s steady response amid growing third-period danger.

“I think that’s something that’s really important, especially this time of year,” Walker said. “You’ve got to answer when teams are making their push.”

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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Report: Oilers’ Pickard likely out rest of series

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Report: Oilers' Pickard likely out rest of series

Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard is expected to miss the remainder of the Western Conference semifinal series against the Vegas Golden Knights due to an injury, according to a TSN report on Monday.

Later Monday, with veteran Stuart Skinner in net, the Oilers defeated the Golden Knights, 3-0, in Game 4, securing a 3-1 series lead. Skinner made 23 saves in the victory.

Pickard has won all six starts in the net for the Oilers during this postseason run. After Edmonton lost the first two games against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, coach Kris Knoblauch replaced Skinner, the team’s regular-season starter, with Pickard. The 33-year-old career backup posted wins in the next four games to help the Oilers oust the Kings and then earned victories in the first two games of the second round in Las Vegas.

Golden Knights forward Tomas Hertl fell into Pickard’s left leg during the Oilers’ 5-4 overtime triumph on May 8. The Moncton, New Brunswick, native finished the game but has not practiced since. With Skinner back in the net, host Edmonton lost 4-3 in Game 3, as Vegas forward Reilly Smith scored with 0.4 seconds remaining.

TSN reported “it will probably be at least a week” before Pickard could return, and during Game 4 on Monday night, Olivier Rodrigue was the backup netminder on the bench. Rodrigue, 24, played in just two games for Edmonton in his first NHL season.

Prior to Monday’s shutout, Skinner, who starred during the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last spring, had allowed 15 goals in just 168 minutes of playing time this postseason and owns a lowly save percentage of .817. During the regular season, Skinner went 26-18-4, with a 2.81 goals-against average and an .896 save percentage.

Since falling down 2-0 to the Kings, the Oilers have won seven of eight postseason games. Game 5 is back in Las Vegas on Wednesday night.

Information from Field Level Media was used in this report.

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