ICE car values plummet in China and it is the canary in the coal mine
A looming crisis is brewing in China, as hundreds of thousands of unsold, polluting gas-powered vehicles may be rendered unsellable due to incoming emissions rules. It’s another sign that the global auto industry isn’t ready for the shift to EVs and will be caught unawares if it doesn’t ramp EV production fast enough.
The new Chinese emissions rules were announced all the way back in 2016 and are set to go into effect in July. This gave automakers almost seven full years of notice to get it together and prepare to produce and sell less-polluting vehicles, more than enough time to bring a new model fully from original conception to production.
The rules don’t ban all gas cars, but they do set stricter emissions standards on several pollutants released by internal combustion vehicles. Carbon monoxide, Nitrogen oxide, particulates, and other pollutants must all be reduced by a half or a third.
Automakers seem to have planned to continue selling polluting vehicles up until the deadline, but then COVID hit. This affected the production of vehicles but also affected purchases. Auto sales dropped, and while sales have started to recover somewhat, most of that recovery has been in EV sales, while ICE sales are still depressed.
Dealership foot traffic is high, but customers simply aren’t buying. This has left dealers with a huge glut of polluting vehicles and a ticking clock that will make them unsellable in July.
China was originally somewhat slow to adopt EVs – in 2015, EV market share was less than .84%, similar to the US market share of .66% and well below California at 3.1% at the time. But in 2022, US market share had risen to only 7.2% and California to 18.7%, whereas China’s EV market share is now a whopping 30%, leapfrogging several countries in the process. So China was a little late at the start but has advanced much more quickly in recent years, catching companies by surprise.
As a result, dealers have been offering massive discounts on polluting inventory vehicles, but this hasn’t been enough. Even the government has stepped in, with provincial governments adding additional subsidies to reduce the price of locally-produced vehicles.
Rapidly dropping prices have resulted in a “wait-and-see” attitude among Chinese buyers. Given that prices are already falling, customers think that they can wait longer and that these prices will fall even further.
Given the dealers and manufacturers are confronted with a situation where their cars will soon become valueless and that there simply aren’t enough customers interested in buying the number of cars they have in inventory, any price they can get for the cars that’s greater than zero may be worthwhile come July.
But the problem most harshly affects foreign automakers in China. Chinese companies have been faster to adopt EVs than foreign ones, so automakers from Europe, Japan, and the US will be most affected by this glut of vehicles. Sales from Chinese brands are flat year-over-year, but sales from US brands are down 12%. German and Korean brands are down 22%, and Japanese and French brands are down more than 40%.
China’s car dealership associations are scrambling for a fix. The China Auto Dealers Chamber of Commerce (CADCC) asked that the emissions rules be delayed six months, until January 1, to help clear the backlog. This is not an unexpected request from a Chamber of Commerce – organizations which so often take the side of polluters over people – but the CADCC also requested that automakers stop production of new cars that don’t meet the upcoming standards immediately, rather than continuing their production plans up until July.
But that’s just China – the same will happen around the globe
China’s turnaround on EV adoption may be an exceptional case. It has gone from a relative laggard to one of the global leaders and now stands only behind Northern Europe in current EV market share. The timing of COVID, the rapid shift to EVs, and new emissions rules have created somewhat of a perfect storm in the country.
But make no mistake – similar trends will play out elsewhere in the world in the coming years, and many automakers simply are not ready.
It takes time to design, build, and distribute vehicles, as these companies know well. But the inability to project trends seven years into the future will prove to be the downfall of laggard companies that don’t take EVs seriously.
I don’t say this in an attempt to function as some sort of oracle of the automotive industry, but from simple observation of events happening now.
We’ve seen other regions shift to EVs faster than expected. Even Norway, long known to be a standout in EV adoption, has taken many by surprise. The country planned to end gas car sales in 2025, but it’s already basically there. This has resulted in some brands hastily withdrawing their gas cars from the Norwegian market – Hyundai only gave a few days of notice that they would stop selling gas cars in the country at the start of this year.
This sort of thing is possible in a country that’s part of a large economic bloc where cars can be shifted around to other nations, but when the entire bloc goes electric, what then? We get a situation like China’s, with stranded vehicles that may end up being worth nothing or close to it.
We’ve also seen some drivers, not even high-mileage ones, realize that renting, fueling, and maintaining an EV is cheaper than the continued running costs of using a paid-for gas car. When that happens, the value of the gas car is effectively zero – it’s worse to continue driving it than it is to get a whole new EV.
It doesn’t take much to see that these trends could result in a full-on “bank run” to abandon gas cars and buy EVs, depending on how unbalanced the supply-demand equation becomes.
Tesla as a case study
Tesla started selling cars in 2008, and 100% of those cars were electric. But it only really got into “mass production” in 2012-2014 with the Model S. At the time, one could look at a chart of sales trends of the Model S versus competing models like the BMW 7-series, Mercedes E- and S-class, Lexus and Audi offerings, etc., and see a strange dip in all of them which coincided with the rise of Model S sales. Tesla wasn’t creating a new market, it was eating the market that existed – and fast.
And these trends continued with other models. It was clear that EVs – as long as they were designed to take advantage of the inherent benefits of electric drive and sold with purpose rather than as compliance vehicles – were going to take market share from gas cars.
The company making these moves loudly proclaimed that in order to make EVs work, one needed to ensure that they had enough batteries to manufacture these cars, enough dealers who cared to sell and knew how to sell these cars, and a suitable charging network for owners to get around in a transparent manner. So it did those things. All around a decade ago.
This wasn’t a secret; other automakers could see it happening. I had this discussion with executives from various automakers around the mid-2010s, many of whom saw it happening but couldn’t get their organizations to act with proper urgency. Meanwhile, most of them thought that they would easily overtake the newcomer with their superior manufacturing expertise – with VW famously claiming they’d reach that point by 2018 (spoiler alert: they still haven’t).
And now, we’re still hearing CEOs say that “batteries are the constraint,” while Tesla outsells every other brand’s EVs combined, twice over, in its home country. Tesla also happens to have a battery factory that broke ground nearly ten years ago now, while some manufacturers are just starting to break ground or announce investments this year.
This is not even a case of Tesla being uniquely right in these prognostications. It is the pure EV company that started first (which is to say, the only one that started at the right time), had enough funding to get off the ground in time (a difficult task), and was confronted with a blue ocean, a market that refused to build EVs in any significant number.
Tesla thus became essentially the only game in town. People want EVs, and everyone else just isn’t bothering to make them yet. This didn’t need to be inevitable. This happened due to intransigence from the major players in the industry. And this case study shows that it was not impossible to see these signs coming, nor impossible to act on them. Other automakers just…. didn’t.
The signs were there from the start
We, the EV faithful, have been trying to shout this from the mountaintops since the beginning. In fact, Electrek exists largely because of this tweet from our publisher Seth Weintraub, ten years ago this year:
We’re a few months out from Seth’s deadline, and look at what’s happening in China. In the next three months, potentially hundreds of thousands of cars are under threat of becoming valueless because they don’t meet the emissions guidelines that were announced long ago. Buyers could buy them now for a song but still aren’t interested.
In 2018, we saw the same thought make its way into “mainstream” car media when WSJ’s Dan Neil said the same. That was five years ago now, and even then he said that he would be stupid to buy a gas car at the time, because by the time he was ready to sell that car, ICE car values would likely drop to zero.
Meanwhile, the EV deals of the past (which we catalog here on Electrek) have largely dried up (well, except for the Chevy Bolt, which is a screaming deal). Automakers don’t need to give deals on EVs – everyone wants them. They’re going to sell out regardless. Heck, you can barely even find one for MSRP these days.
This mismatch of supply and demand is because automakers have consistently underestimated EV demand for a decade now. We heard for so long that the demand wasn’t there, and all of a sudden, now we’re hearing the opposite. But if you wait to react until after the demand is too high for you to fulfill, you’ll still have years worth of prep to do before being able to meet that demand.
At this point, it could be too late already for some automakers. Even the largest on Earth, Toyota, seems likely to suffer from their obstinacy (along with other Japanese automakers and perhaps the entire country of Japan). Toyota’s new CEO, Koji Sato, has given some indications that he wants to turn things around, but it’s very late in the game already.
And going back to China, this is part of what the China Automobile Circulation Association warned about in a March 24 note. It recognized that auto manufacturers got demand drastically wrong and that those companies’ underestimation of EV popularity is what has led to this situation. It called on all levels of the auto industry – government, manufacturing, and dealerships – to shape up and embrace change in a way that these entities have not yet done.
We need to see the same in the rest of the world, lest the same fate happen elsewhere. You’ve been warned.
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Mark Kay’s iconic Pink Cadillac awards are driving into the future for 2025. The company’s first-ever electric Pink Cadillac OPTIQ made its debut during the Mary Kay annual Seminar in Charlotte this weekend, symbolizing a “recharged vision” for the future of the popular brand.
Pioneers in monetizing friendships female empowerment and entrepreneurship, the Pink Cadillac is considered one the most coveted symbols of achievement for Mary Kay sales reps, signifying not just great sales (GM Authority reported that it took ~$102,000 in annual sales to qualify back in 2001), but also leadership, a history of mentoring others, and a sustained reputation of excellence among their peers.
The women you see behind the wheel of the Pink Cadillac are the real deal, in other words, and the big Caddy really does mean something to people in the know.
The iconic pink Cadillac was born in 1968 when Mary Kay Ash purchased a Cadillac Coupe De Ville from a Dallas dealership and promptly had it painted to match the pale pink Mary Kay lip and eye palette. General Motors later named the color Mary Kay Pink Pearl, and the shade is exclusive to Mary Kay.
MARY KAY
Now, the Pink Cadillac is going to stand for environmental sustainability, too, enabling Mary Kay’s top performers to set yet another positive example for anyone aspiring to their success.
“For decades, the Mary Kay pink Cadillac has symbolized accomplishment, aspiration, and the power of recognition,” said Ryan Rogers, Chief Executive Officer of Mary Kay. “With the introduction of the all-electric OPTIQ, we’re honoring that iconic legacy while driving into a transformative future—one grounded in our commitment to sustainability and dedication to inspiring and celebrating the achievements of our independent sales force for generations to come.”
Mary Kay announced its new Pink Cadillac with this video, below.
Same Legacy, New Energy
“The legacy continues with the new, all-electric (and still very pink) Cadillac Otiq [sic],” reads the official Mary Kay copy on YouTube. “The Optiq remains instantly recognizable with the pink pearl exterior, while modernizing with sleek, cutting-edge features. In addition, this vehicle showcases our commitment and dedication to sustainability by reducing our carbon footprint while continuing to inspire.”
Speaking of inspiration, I can’t hardly hear the words “Pink Cadillac” without thinking of the song. But, since “Bruce Springsteen” has become something of a trigger word for the MAGA snowflakes in the audience, I’ll post a different, but similarly great song about rose-tinted GM flagships from Dope Lemon. You can let me know what you think of it in the comments.
As ever, the Cadillac is not a “gift,” per se – but typically takes the form of a two year lease paid for by Mary Kay. No word yet on what the exact shape and form the OPTIQ deal will take.
Electrek’s Take
Whatever you might think of MLMs or businesses like Amway, Avon, or Mary Kay, they play a big part in the social dramas of hundreds (if not thousands) of neighborhoods and online communities. The people at the top are influential, and the people “below” them genuinely try to emulate them and follow their lead.
Thanks to Mary Kay, that might soon mean a decision to buy an electric vehicle – and that result would be a win for everyone.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Mary Kay.
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RBW, a British handcrafted electric car manufacturer, brought its cute little Roadster out to Santa Monica and invited us up for a drive.
RBW has built cars in the UK for a few years now, but is about to set up US manufacturing in Virginia. Along with that comes a version of its Roadster modified for the US market, and we got a sneak peek with a short drive in Santa Monica.
The RBW Roadster is a small, hand-built, retro-style EV, meant as a modern take on British classics. But it’s not an actual classic itself – it’s a newly-built vehicle, with a new body, modern safety features, and even some electronics, like CarPlay and Android Auto (but not much else – there’s no huge, cockpit-defining screen, just a 9″ one, with retro gauges in front of the driver. But it does have a backup camera!).
Our drive was short, just a quick trip up and down the most trafficky part of Pacific Coast Highway in Santa Monica, without much chance to really stretch the vehicle’s legs. So we can’t verify range or tell you how it handles on the limits, but we can tell you about the basic controls and feel of the vehicle.
On a mostly smooth road, the car offered a comfortable ride dynamic. We didn’t get a sense of chassis noise because the top was down (which I surmised was an intentional effort by the company – I’ve used the same trick when showing off my car before).
The steering is tight and has a good weight to it, and the retro-style steering wheel felt great in my hands.
Of particular interest to me, as a long-time EV driver, is how the throttle pedal is tuned. Lots of EVs add some intentional delay or smoothing to throttle inputs, which ends up making the pedal feel mushy and indirect, reducing the control you have over the vehicle.
For reference, the cars I drive most often are the Tesla Roadster and Model 3, which both have excellent direct pedal feel.
And I’m happy to report that the RBW Roadster’s throttle pedal feels very similar to the cars I love to drive. The car feels quick, and responds exactly to what I want it to do, when I want it to do it. But it’s not excessively “punchy” like some of the more absurdly-powered EVs can be (like the Tesla Model S Plaid or the Macan Turbo S).
It does not, however, have off-throttle regenerative braking, aka one-pedal driving. Pressing the brake pedal engages regen, but letting off the throttle lets you simply coast. I personally prefer one-pedal driving, but one consideration RBW had is that since the car does not have traction control, regenerative braking on the rear axle (where the motor is) could potentially present a safety issue on slippery roads. So, fair enough I guess, but I still do prefer one pedal.
Speaking of pedals, the brake pedal was placed quite far from the accelerator. This is a plus and a minus – a minus because it’s quite different from most vehicles these days, where the pedals are placed closer, for ease of reaching them with your right foot. A plus because higher separation might reduce the chance of “crossing the pedals” and accidentally pressing both with the same foot in an emergency situation, and because it enables left-foot braking, which is generally better for performance driving… in the hands of a trained driver, anyway.
That said, this isn’t exactly a performance car. It’s fun, it’s responsive, but it’s not powerful. The version we tested had a 0-60 time of only around 9 seconds, so it didn’t give you the “throw your head back” feeling that so many EVs on the road these days do. It’s responsive, but not fast.
RBW says the American version will have more motor power than the UK version, but it’s still trying to figure out exactly how to tune it. This should bring 0-60 times down by about a second. But we can’t help but think that it would be nice with even a little more power than that, which we think should be possible given the car’s 50kWh battery and ~2,900lb weight, specs that are similar to my similarly-sized Tesla Roadster (as you can see below – along with the GT version of the RBW, on the right).
Here’s an issue: all the specs we were given seem extremely fluid. While talking to the company, I got several different numbers for any given specification. It seems to me like the company is still figuring out exactly what changes it will make for its US models.
This is somewhat to be expected of a small, hand-built manufacturer, especially since buyers can ask for certain modifications or personalizations (seat height, for example, which is important in a small car like this). But it does make it tough to write an article about it.
Nevertheless, the car drives well, and RBW seems to have gotten a lot right about the dynamics of the vehicle. It executes well on its goal – a fun, small British-style roadster, a great weekend car for those who have the means.
As for the means, the RBW Roadster will start in the $140-150k range, so it’s not cheap. But if you’re looking for something like this, it’s just about the only game in town, and it’s a good execution of the feel of a nimble roadster for weekend cruising.
RBW is currently taking $1,000 reservations for 2026 builds, and you can have a look at configurations (paint, roof, interior, wheels) over on its website.
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Canadian startup Beachman has just unveiled its latest electric two-wheeler, the ’64, a vintage-styled electric motorcycle that looks like it rolled straight out of the 1960s. With throwback café racer design and a respectable top speed of 45 mph (72 km/h), it’s a slick little ride with a curious twist: it calls itself an e-bike.
It’s not just a casual reference, but it’s baked into the name. The full model name on Beachman’s website is the ’64 E-Bike.
While I’d generally be inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, since many motorcyclists refer to electric motorcycles as “e-bikes” and the term has a broad definition in colloquial usage, the company is obviously casting more in the “electric bicycle” end of the spectrum. They even say on their website that it is “rideable as either a Class II E-Bike or a Registered Moped (in most states).”
Despite lacking pedals entirely – and clearly designed more like a lightweight electric motorcycle – the Beachman ’64 comes with a selectable “E-Bike Mode” that limits it to 20 mph (32 km/h). The implication? That riders can use this obvious motorcycle in bike lanes like a Class 2 e-bike. Legally speaking, that’s a stretch, to put it mildly. In fact, I’m not currently aware of any state where that’s explicitly legal, though it could probably pass in many states due to the current state of enforcement we usually see.
According to Beachman, the ’64 has three ride modes:
- E-Bike Mode: 20 mph (32 km/h) top speed, which the company says is “perfect for bike lanes.”
- Moped Mode: 30 mph (48 km/h) top speed, which does match legal definitions for mopeds in some jurisdictions, even without pedals.
- Off-Road Mode: 45 mph (72 km/h) top speed, no pretense – just a motorcycle.
In practice, I don’t think it’s a stretch of the imagination to assume that most riders will likely keep it in Off-Road Mode, where the bike delivers its full 3,000W performance and offers the most fun. And specced with decently large batteries, it could actually do some modest commuting, even at higher speeds. The ’64 comes with a removable 2.88 kWh battery (or optional 3.6 kWh upgrade), and range is estimated at 55–70 miles, depending on configuration. It charges to 80% in three hours and even features regenerative braking.
The company leans heavily on its “timeless design” messaging, and to their credit, the ’64 nails the aesthetic. It looks great. The frame, tank, and seat all channel classic motorcycle vibes while skipping the modern digital overload – no apps or touchscreens here. Just a clean, simple throttle and some retro charm.
But for all the cool factor, the classification confusion raises eyebrows. Calling a 45 mph, pedal-less motorcycle an “e-bike” in any meaningful legal sense is a misfire. Some states allow low-speed mopeds in bike lanes, but others draw the line at motorized vehicles without pedals. The ’64 might get away with it in limited cases, but most jurisdictions will (rightfully) require it to be registered and insured as a motor vehicle. And it’s unclear if explaining to the officer, “But I had it in 20 mph mode…” will help much on the side of the road.
Still, Beachman is aiming at a particular rider who wants motorcycle style and speed without all the baggage. With a starting price of $4,800, the ’64 could be an appealing step-up for e-bike riders looking to graduate into something faster without committing to a full-sized gas bike.
Just don’t expect to blend in on the bike path.
Electrek’s Take
Look: The bike looks fantastic and probably rides well, but come on, it’s a 230 lb (105 kg) motorcycle.
Let’s stop calling every throttle-only EV an e-bike just because it’s got two wheels, a battery, and a button that neuters it to 20 mph. This has gotten silly. You built a great-looking bike. But it’s a bike in the way a motorcycle rider refers to his “bike.” It’s not a bicycle, and it’s not a bike lane vehicle any more than a Sur Ron is. At least not if you respect your fellow two-wheel riders around you.
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