Can anyone other than Georgia beat Georgia? Four teams that will try
The final memory seared into our brains from last season was No. 1 Georgia’s resounding, relentless, insert-your-ugly-adjective 65-7 beatdown of No. 3 TCU in the national championship game. It was the largest win by a team in any bowl game in major college football history.
The Bulldogs finished 15-0 in 2022. They open the season with four straight home games. And they’re reloading with the second-best incoming recruiting class, trailing only Alabama.
So … who can stop them?
“When they’re as talented as they are, as well-coached, they’d have to beat themselves at times with some of us,” said one SEC head coach.
“Well, Alabama can,” another SEC head coach said. “Missouri should have. The best thing that can beat Georgia is Georgia, but a fast-paced offense like Tennessee would have some type of chance. Alabama. Obviously Ohio State. After that, probably not a lot. But I think the best opponent Georgia would have is Georgia not playing well because they’re that dominating.”
If the Bulldogs are going to win the East again, they have to win at Tennessee on Nov. 18. And if they’re going to win the SEC again, they’ll likely have to go through Alabama or LSU in the conference championship game. Georgia beat LSU 50-30 last year to win the SEC title.
“We scored enough points, but we couldn’t match up physically yet,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said. “You look at the other teams, obviously Ohio State had enough of that to take them right down to the wire. Teams are building towards that model that Kirby’s put together. And he watched Nick [Saban] do it, making a major pivot towards scoring more points and being more productive offensively, all the while they still had to have that physicality. If you have a flaw in any one of those areas where you’re not physical enough on the offensive line or the defensive line, and you can’t be explosive, then you can’t beat Georgia.”
The list of teams capable of it is short, but it exists.
The four teams are listed from most to least likely team capable of beating the Bulldogs.
Alabama
Nick Saban’s record vs. Kirby Smart: 4-1
Last meeting: Georgia won 33-18 in the CFP National Championship Game on Jan. 10, 2022.
How they do it this year: The only way Georgia and Alabama would face each other this year is in the SEC championship, so this scenario assumes they win their respective divisions. What Alabama can’t do is continue its 2022 trend of penalties and turnovers. Both teams are searching for a new starting quarterback, but no matter who has earned the job for Nick Saban, he has been effective against the blitz. This could be an advantage for the Tide because Georgia has a tendency to blitz a lot when facing elite quarterbacks, and according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, under Saban, Alabama has the best QBR when blitzed in the FBS. In Georgia’s two close wins last year, against Missouri and Kentucky, the Bulldogs only attempted four passes over 20 yards, and this also favors the Tide. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, opposing teams only completed 26% of their deep passes against the Tide last year — 15th best in the FBS.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
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Doug Greenberg, ESPN
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
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