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Oil storage tanks stand at the RN-Tuapsinsky refinery, operated by Rosneft Oil Co., at night in Tuapse, Russia.

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oil prices surged as much as 8% at the open after OPEC+ announced it was slashing output by 1.16 million barrels per day.

Brent crude futures last jumped 5.07% to $83.95 a barrel on that news, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures soared 5.17% to $79.59 a barrel.

The voluntary cuts will start from May to end 2023, Saudi Arabia announced, saying it was a “precautionary measure” targeted toward stabilizing the oil market.

The move comes on the back of Russia’s decision to trim oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023, according to the country’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Other member states have also pledged respective cuts, with OPEC Kingpin Saudi Arabia reducing 500,000 barrels per day and UAE cutting 144,000 barrels per day, amongst other cutbacks from Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Algeria and Kazakhstan.

“The selected involvement of the largest OPEC+ members suggest that adherence to production cuts may be stronger than has been the case in the past,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Oil at $100 per barrel?

They’re looking into the second half of this year and deciding they don’t want to relive 2008.

Bob McNally

Founder of Energy Aspects

The oil cartel and its allies are looking to avoid a repeat of the 2008 crash, one analyst said.

“They’re looking into the second half of this year and deciding they don’t want to relive 2008,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, citing oil prices crashing from $140 to $35 in six months in that year.

McNally added that while it’s not his base case, oil prices could “make a dash for $100 … if Chinese demand goes back to 16 million barrels a day second half of this year [and] if Russian supply starts to go off because of sanctions and so forth,”

“Then these cuts, if they stick with them, are going to super tighten the market,” he said.

The logo of the OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on October 4, 2022. In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day.

Joe Klamar | Afp | Getty Images

Significant, but not ‘set in stone’

However, some analysts say the latest cut is set to deliver a more significant impact than the one set last year.

“Most of the cuts will be made by countries that are producing at or above quotas, which implies a higher share of the announced cuts will translate into real supply reductions than in October 2022,” said Energy Aspects’ founder Amrita Sen, who also expects prices to hit $100 per barrel.

OPEC is very clearly defending a floor with surprise output cut: Energy Aspects

However, Sen holds the view that the output cut could potentially be reversed, hinging on easing global market pressures.

“I do believe if the market over tightens, exogenous issues or shocks fade, they will reverse this cut down the line so this isn’t set in stone for the rest of the year — but very clearly defending a [price] floor,” she said.

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“Unlike [the cut in October], the momentum for global oil demand is up, not down with a strong China recovery,” Goldman Sachs also said in a note.

That could nudge up Goldman’s Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023, the investment bank said in a note after the surprise decision overnight.

Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven said the surprise cut is “consistent” with OPEC+’s doctrine to act preemptively.

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The reality TV contestant running the DOT just raised your fuel costs by $23B

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The reality TV contestant running the DOT just raised your fuel costs by B

America voted for inflation, and it got it today, as republicans running the Department of Transportation bowed to their oil donors and finalized a rule to make your cars less efficient, thus costing America an extra $23 billion in fuel costs.

Sean Duffy, who was appointed as Secretary of Transportation on the back of the transportation “expertise” he showed as a contestant on Road Rules: All Stars, a reality TV travel game show, announced the rule on his first day in office.

His original memo promised a review of all existing fuel economy standards, which require manufacturers to make more efficient vehicles which save you money on fuel.

Specifically, the rule finalized today targets the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard (CAFE), which was just improved last year by President Biden’s DOT, saving American drivers $23 billion in fuel costs by meaning they need to buy less fuel overall. The savings from the Biden rule could have been higher, but were softened from the original proposal due to automaker lobbying.

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Sierra Club’s Transportation for All director, Katherine Garcia, responded to the new Duffy rule’s finalization with a statement:

“The Trump administration’s deregulatory, pro-polluter transportation agenda will only increase costs for Americans. Making our vehicles less fuel efficient hurts families by forcing them to pay more at the pump. This action puts the well-being of our communities at risk in every way imaginable. It will lead to fewer clean vehicle options for consumers, squeeze our wallets, endanger our health, and increase climate pollution. The Sierra Club will continue to push back against this administration’s dangerous clean transportation rollbacks.”

The rule had been filed on Mar 16, and review was completed yesterday. Oddly enough, the rule was filed as “not economically significant,” a categorization for government rules that won’t affect the US economy by more than $100 million – which is less than the $23 billion that the DOT’s own analysis says the new rule will cost Americans.

Both we at Electrek and the Sierra Club had a meeting with the government to point out this inconsistency, but both of our meetings were scheduled for today and were cancelled late last night. There seems to have been no public comment period regarding this change in regulations.

DOT isn’t done raising your fuel costs, it wants to do more

Duffy’s original DOT memo says he wants to target all similar standards, rather than just the improvements made last year – so in fact, our headline likely underestimates how much higher Duffy wants to make your fuel costs.

A recent analysis by Consumer Reports shows that fuel economy standards are enormously popular with Americans, and that maintaining the current standards could result in lifetime savings of $6,000 per vehicle, compared to current costs, by 2029. And that fuel economy standards implemented since 2001 have already saved $9,000 per vehicle. Now, imagine the net effect of removing all of those standards, which Duffy has directed the DOT to examine doing.

As we’ve already seen to be the case often with Trump’s allies, the DOT memo lied about its intentions. Just like EPA head Lee Zeldin, who said he wants to make the air cleaner by making it dirtier, Duffy, says he wants to make fuel costs lower by making them higher. The memo attempts to argue that your car will be cheaper if it has lower fuel economy, even though it wont, because buying more fuel will mean you spend more on fuel, not less.

Unequivocally, over here in the real world, dirtier air is actually dirtier, and higher fuel costs are actually higher.

The result of this increased fuel usage also inevitably means more reliance on foreign sources of energy. The more oil America uses, the more it will have to import from elsewhere. Other countries looking to exercise power over the US could certainly choose to raise prices as they recognize that the US has just become more reliant on them.

And, as we know from the most basic understanding of economics, adding more demand means prices will go up, not down. Reducing demand for a product in fact forces prices down, and EVs are already displacing oil demand which depresses oil prices.

Meanwhile, Biden’s higher fuel economy standards would mean that automakers need to provide a higher mix of EVs, which inherently get all of their energy to run not just domestically, but regionally as well. Most electricity generation happens regionally or locally based on what resources are available in your area, so when you charge a car, you’re typically supporting jobs at your local power plant, rather than in some overseas oil country.

But these are just attempts to follow-through on the dirty air, inflation causing promises that the republicans made during the campaign. Mr. Trump signaled he intended to raise your fuel costs (and costs of everything else) during the 2024 US Presidential campaign, when he asked oil executives for $1 billion in bribes in return for killing off more efficient vehicles.

Since he made his way back into the White House (despite that there exists a clear legal remedy stopping insurrectionists from holding office in the US), republicans have tried to follow through on this promise and more – not only trying to make your cars more expensive, but also threatening US energy dominance, sending US jobs to China and illegally attacking clean air laws.

However, whiplash changes in regulatory regimes like this are typically seen as bad for business. Above all, businesses desire regulatory certainty so they can plan products into the future, and there are few businesses with longer planning timelines than automakers.

This is why automakers want the EPA to retain Biden’s emissions rules, because they’re already planning new models for the EV transition. They went through this once before, in the chaos of 2017-2021, where they originally asked for rollbacks but then realized their mistake, and now still complain about the broken regulatory regime caused by the last time a former reality TV host squatted in the White House.

Further, if American manufacturing turns away from the EV transition, or continues to make tepid movement towards it, this will only hand more of a manufacturing lead to China, meaning more decline of American manufacturing (compared to the huge manufacturing boom seen under President Biden).

Finally, the most important problem with DOT’s final rule is that it will increase emissions, which harms your health and increases climate change. Much like the other trends we’ve seen here, this administration doesn’t know much about the basics of climate science, which is already costing America $150 billion a year in increased infrastructure costs related to damage from natural disasters.

And that’s not even counting health costs, which will be even higher. The aggregate of these damages could cost each American born today $500,000 over their lifetime.

But all of these harms will happen to real people. This isn’t reality television, where the intent is to make up drama for views. This is actual harm that’s actually going to be done to Americans, who are having a rough time as the global economy continues to grapple with the long-term disruptions resulting from a pandemic that was exacerbated by the same reality TV host, and of course the ever-present worsening climate change.

And so, Mr. Trump is now trying to follow through on his campaign promises – which, in so many ways, will only make your life costlier, more unhealthy, less stable, and less secure from foreign influence. This is what 49% of America voted for.


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Podcast: Tesla in Musk/Trump divorce, EV sales in EU, Hyundai’s new electric minivan, and more

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Podcast: Tesla in Musk/Trump divorce, EV sales in EU, Hyundai's new electric minivan, and more

In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla being in the crosshairs of the Musk/Trump divorce, EV sales in Europe, a new Hyundai electric minivan, and more.

The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.

As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.

After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:

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We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.

Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:

Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:

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Kia wants you to love hatchbacks again with the stylish new EV4

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Kia wants you to love hatchbacks again with the stylish new EV4

Kia believes hatchbacks will make a comeback, starting with the EV4 later this year. The EV4 is Kia’s first electric hatch, and it’s expected to see big demand.

Kia aims to bring back hatchbacks with the new EV4

During its EV Day event earlier this year, Kia showcased four EV4 models, two sedans and two hatchbacks, all of which are fully electric.

The EV4 is part of Kia’s new entry-level EV lineup, which includes other models, including the EV3, EV5, and the upcoming EV2.

Following the launch of the EV4 sedan in Korea in March, Kia is preparing to introduce the hatchback version in Europe. The EV4 will kick off a series of new hatchbacks, which Kia believes could be its secret weapon as an electric alternative to the Volkswagen Golf and other popular models.

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Kia’s executive vice president, Ted Lee, believes there is still “big volume” for hatchbacks in Europe that’s up for grabs. During a recent interview with Autocar, Lee confirmed Kia would launch a new series of hatchbacks.

Kia's-first-electric-hatch-EV4
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia)

The EV4 is set to kick things off later this year. Unlike the sedan, Kia will build the EV4 hatch in Europe. It will be Kia’s first European-built EV at its plant in Slovakia. The sedan variant will be imported from South Korea.

Kia will launch the EV4 hatch in the UK in October. After that, the new K4 will join the series, which will also arrive in hatchback form. The K4, both hatch and sedan variants, will be imported from Kia’s plant in Mexico.

Kia-EV4-first-electric-hatchback
Kia EV4 hatchback GT-Line (Source: Kia)

According to Lee, Kia is in a “strong position in Europe,” especially in the UK. The Korean automaker is currently the third-best-selling brand in the UK, and it is only 300 units away from surpassing BMW.

Although he admitted new Chinese models are creating a “difficult market,” the company is doubling down on the region.

Kia-hatchbacks-EV4
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia UK)

Kia will not get caught up in a price war, Lee explained. Instead, the company aims to continue driving the “sustainable growth” it has created over the past few years. Kia’s sales in Europe have increased by 30% since 2020.

Kia-EV4-hatch-interior
Kia EV4 hatchback interior (Source: Kia)

After launching the EV3, Kia said the electric SUV “started with a bang” in January, becoming the UK’s most popular retail electric vehicle. Kia’s compact EV was the best-selling retail EV in the UK during the first quarter and the fourth-best-selling overall.

According to SMNT’s latest registration data, Kia brand sales are up 4% this year, with nearly 52,000 vehicles sold through May. It currently holds a 6.11% market share, up from 6.05% last year.

Kia-EV3-best-selling-EV
Kia EV3 Air in Frost Blue (Source: Kia UK)

The EV3 starts at £33,005 ($42,500) in the UK with two battery pack options: 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh. The standard battery provides a WLTP range of up to 30 km (270 miles), while the extended range option offers a driving range of 599 km (375 miles).

With the EV3 off to a strong start, the EV4 joining it, and its first electric van, the PV5, rolling out, Kia is laying the groundwork for the “sustainable growth” it’s seeking.

Yesterday, Electrek reported that the EV4 was off to a slow start in Korea with just 831 models sold. However, the disappointing first sales month was due to “limited inventory.”

Ahead of its official launch, we got a sneak peek of the EV4 hatchback after it was spotted driving in Korea (You can watch the video here).

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