The logo of the OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on October 4, 2022. In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day.
Joe Klamar | Afp | Getty Images
Several OPEC+ members are set to tighten global production by an additional 1.16 million barrels per day until the end of the year, further burdening central bank efforts to curtail global inflation — but critically protecting the alliance’s broader output strategy from political pressures.
Washington has stepped in to criticize Sunday’s announcement where eight OPEC+ producers — including group leader Saudi Arabia and key allies Kuwait and the UAE — said they would remove more than a combined 1 million barrels per day from global oil markets, as part of an independent initiative unlinked to the broader OPEC+ policy.
This adds to Russia’s existing intentions to trim 500,000 barrels per day of its own production from February output levels, now until the end of the year — bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess of 1.6 million barrels per day.
“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said, according to Reuters.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly lambasted the OPEC+ group for its production cuts, citing the inflationary toll on households and flinging accusations of camaraderie with sanctions-struck Russia. Curbs in production lead to smaller supply, causing higher prices at the pump in importing countries which then provides a boost for headline inflation figures.
Relations devolved into a war of words with OPEC+ chair Saudi Arabia at the end of last year, when the oil group agreed a 2 million barrels per day cut until the end of 2023 — a decision upheld at ministerial and technical committees since.
One such technical council, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee concluded on Monday with a statement that acknowledged the voluntary cuts, making no mention of a broader change in formal production policy.
Referring to the voluntary cuts, the OPEC Secretariat said they represent “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
The JMMC will next convene on June 4, with a full ministerial meeting to follow.
Formal group action is arguably no longer required, with front-month June Brent futures prices up by $4.44 per barrel from the Friday settlement to $84.33 per barrel at nearly 10 a.m. London time. Some analysts now warn of prices soaring to $100 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs could drive up Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
“The anticipated increase in oil prices for the rest of the year as a result of these voluntary cuts could fuel global inflation, prompting a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes from central banks across the world. That would, however, lower economic growth and reduce oil demand expansion,” said Victor Ponsford of Rystad Energy in a research note.
Tamas Varga, of oil broker PVM, flagged the broader political risks of the organized voluntary cuts, telling CNBC that headline inflation should rise faster than anticipated.
“But central banks might not deviate from the course of slowing down the hike in borrowing as their views are chiefly shaped by core inflation figures, which will not be as much affected by stronger oil prices as headline data,” he said.
“The voices of the proponents of the NOPEC bill in the US Congress will also get louder and they will accuse OPEC+ to use oil as a weapon. The step is unreservedly bullish, for now macro worries are overtaken by supply concerns. The move will also lead to further souring of the Saudi-US relationship.”
The NOPEC — No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels— bill refers to proposed U.S. legislation that would open OPEC+ countries to potential antitrust legal action.
The U.S. can attempt to combat price hikes by releasing further volumes from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves — with one anonymous OPEC+ delegate saying that Washington has encumbered its fight against inflation by blocking global access to Venezuela and Iranian volumes, while EU nations likewise refrain from Russian purchases out of solidarity with the invaded Ukraine.
OPEC+ delegates have previously also found fault with western nations’ windfall taxes on energy companies — which they claim received no consistent support when WTI futures traded in negative territory in April 2020 — and with the accelerated shift toward renewables that has reduced hydrocarbon investments without producing sufficient alternative green fuel to fully meet consumer demands.
Spare capacity has been at the heart of recent OPEC+ pronouncements, with the group stepping in to protect the appeal of stable return for long-term investments in oil projects. Nearly all of the countries participating in the recently-announced independent cuts possess additional capacity.
One anonymous OPEC+ source said discussions to coordinate further independent cuts gained traction toward the end of last week, when volatility in the banking sector following the failures of several U.S. and Swiss lenders eroded investor confidence in more historically volatile assets, such as oil. OPEC+ delegates have previously expressed that the oil impact of the banking turbulence would be short-lived, with longer-term questions lingering over the looming demand of a reopening China, the world’s largest consumer.
“What happened to the oil prices over the last three weeks was nothing to do with oil factors, it was everything to do with the banking crisis, and the fears that brings with it. We also had a huge, huge increase in [the] short market, and that is something that OPEC are very keen to stomp out,” Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Investors generally assume short positions when they expect market or price declines.
“I do believe, if the market overtightens, or exogenous issues or shocks fade, they will reverse this cut along the line. So this isn’t set in stone for the rest of the year, but very clearly defending a floor.”
Voluntary production moves are easier to agree and unwind without staining domestic or external OPEC+ politics. Such cuts have previously been accepted by the group, provided they aligned with the spirit of existing OPEC+ policies — but they have typically expressed the initiative of a single country, barring temporary Saudi-Kuwaiti-UAE reductions organized during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A coordinated gesture of Sunday’s scale effectively creates a second, unofficial agreement on top of the existing formal OPEC+ strategy — one that does not command formal commitments and can be more readily defended when individual oil ministries face pressures from their own governments or state oil companies to increase output and short-term revenues. Independent cuts also bypass the need for unanimous OPEC+ member approval and tentatively avoid external accusations of organized anti-consumer behavior.
But the gesture will not bridge the growing political rift between OPEC+ kingpin Saudi Arabia and the Biden administration, whose influence has been increasingly supplanted by China in the Middle East. In the past month, Beijing brokered a resumption of relations between arch-rivals Tehran and Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia also taking steps to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner.
“[The organized voluntary cuts] certainly would play into the narrative that the U.S. is losing its influence in the region to either influence the actions of core OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have traditionally been client states of the U.S.,” Andy Critchlow, EMEA head of news at S&P Global Platts, told CNBC.
“You can’t really look at this in isolation from the wider geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is seeing these core oil producers shift closer to China, shift much closer to Russia. You know, they like operating in this multipolar world, instead of being completely tied to U.S. dependency.”
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss a big Tesla Robotaxi setback, the new Mercedes-Benz CLA EV, Bollinger is over, and more.
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Segway’s feature-packed E3 Pro electric scooter with Apple Find My hits new $500 Black Friday low (Save $200)
Segway’s Black Friday Sale is in full gear and currently seeing hundreds in savings and plenty of returning and new low prices on its e-scooters and e-bikes. One such standout is Segway’s latest E3 Pro Electric Scooter down at $499.99 shipped, and which seems to have disappeared from Amazon’s marketplace. Carrying a $700 MSRP since launching back at the top of October, we’ve only seen this model given $100 price cuts in its launch deal and the brand’s Halloween and early Black Friday sales. Now, with things having ramped up with increased savings now that Black Friday is in full swing, you can score a larger-than-ever $200 markdown to a new all-time low price, giving you an advanced upgrade to your commute that I have been loving so far since getting one a short time ago.
I’ve been riding around Brooklyn for a short time now with my own Segway E3 Pro Electric Scooter and have been loving my experience so far, as it’s a MAJOR step up from the very basic E22 model I’ve had for short travels since 2020. While power has been significantly ramped up from its E2 Pro predecessor, this new generation still retains a fairly lightweight 40-pound design, which I am able (as a not-so-strong person) to carry easily with one hand/arm up and down my second-story stoop.
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Segway’s E3 Pro comes bearing a 400W motor (with 800W peaking) alongside a 368Wh battery, the combination of which delivers up to 34 miles of commuting support for your travels at up to 20 MPH speeds. The regenerative brake paired with the brand’s SegRange Optimization tech really lends towards the extended travel times here, with safety taken into mind with the SegRide stability enhancement tech, the latest traction control system, turn signaling, RGB ambient lighting for nighttime journeys, and a bright headlight. What’s more, security is bolstered by the Apple Find My inclusion for those worried about tracking it down should theft (or forgetfulness) occur.
One thing I have really been enjoying, especially when riding over more pot-hole lined streets, is Segway’s E3 Pro’s dual elastomer suspension, which does a great job of smoothing out overall rides, while providing added cushioning when sudden, jolting sections of the road (or debris/trash) are driven over. Along with all those, there are also additional features, including the previously mentioned rear electronic regen brake getting a companion front drum brake, as well as 10-inch self-sealing jelly tires, an IPX5 water-resistant build, a 265-pound total payload, and a 3-inch full-color LED screen for setting adjustments.
Score up to 47% Black Friday savings on NIU EVs, like the 2025 KQi 200F e-scooter at its $529 low (Reg. $799), more from $279
NIU’s Black Friday EV Sale is in full motion now, taking up to 47% off its lineup of e-scooters and e-bikes, like the KQi 200F Foldable Handlebar Electric Scooter for $529 shipped, which you can currently only find in a used condition at Amazon. This is one of the brand’s newer 2025 models that fetches $799 at full price, which dipped down to this rate for the first time earlier in the month before these Black Friday savings. Now, you’re getting another shot at this all-time low price with $270 savings, giving you a solid commuter that sits among the mid-range models from NIU.
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
Tesla’s much-awaited entry into the Indian market has resulted in very slow sales to start, but it may not all be bad.
We’ve covered the years-long effort of Tesla to enter the Indian auto market. There have been a lot of intentions and fits and starts, but due to protectionist schemes in the country it never made a lot of sense for Tesla to enter.
That changed this year in March, when India waived EV import duties, allowing foreign firms to bring their cars in for sale. While India does have some strong local brands in Mahindra and Tata, this opened the gates to Chinese, German, Korean and American brands – namely, Tesla.
So far, other American companies have declined to bring their EVs to India, but Tesla opened its first showroom in Mumbai, India’s most populous city and financial capital, in July of this year. It opened a larger “Tesla Center” showroom in Gurugram, outside Delhi, this week.
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So, Tesla is only getting started in India, but by all measures it has been an exceedingly slow start, according to the BBC.
Dealership data shows that Tesla has only sold “just over” 100 cars in India since July, an exceedingly low number by any measure – especially when considering the India is now the most populous country in the world, with a population of just under 1.5 billion.
The numbers look a little less bad when comparing against EV sales in the country. While India has sold an impressive 2 million electric vehicles this year, the vast majority of them have been electric scooters.
Electric passenger cars are a much lower share at around 160k total unit sales this year so far, making up only around 3% of the passenger car market. And the majority of those are lower-cost domestic brands Mahindra and Tata or a growing section of Chinese challengers, with very few sales from overseas luxury brands.
Tesla could be included in that “luxury brand” list, largely due to the price of its imported vehicles. While the Model Y starts at $40k in the US, that price rises to 5,989,000 Rupees in India (~$67k USD). This is simply an unaffordable price for the vast majority of Indians – indeed, only around 1% of India’s auto sales are in the “luxury” category.
Further, EV infrastructure is not very well developed in the country. Tesla has one Supercharger in India, and two listed as “coming soon” in the Gurugram area. There are thousands of other charging points across India (and of course, drivers can charge overnight at home), but the number is still relatively low compared to the country’s population.
Meanwhile, other brands’ EV sales are growing well in India. The auto market as a whole has grown by about 13% this year in the developing country, but EV car sales have grown by 57% in the same period, rapidly outpacing the auto industry as a whole.
Much of that sales growth has been driven by Chinese EVs, which make up around a third of the market. That’s around ~60k Chinese EVs sold this year in India.
Even luxury German EVs from Mercedes, BMW and Audi have sold around 4,000 units so far this year, not a large number, but certainly dwarfing Tesla’s.
So while it’s tempting to look at Tesla’s poor numbers and make excuses about the size of the EV market, ability of Indians to afford luxury vehicles, or state of India’s charging network, it’s hard to compare that low ~100 sales number at any of the competition and label it as anything other than an extremely poor showing.
But, you do have to start somewhere, and the company is only a few months in. So we’ll have to see where it goes from here – though with the sales we’ve seen so far in Mumbai, entering the Delhi market is unlikely to forestall Tesla’s current global sales decline.
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