OPEC+ just made the Fed’s job more complicated. Here’s why they did it — and what could be next
The logo of the OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on October 4, 2022. In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day.
Joe Klamar | Afp | Getty Images
Several OPEC+ members are set to tighten global production by an additional 1.16 million barrels per day until the end of the year, further burdening central bank efforts to curtail global inflation — but critically protecting the alliance’s broader output strategy from political pressures.
Washington has stepped in to criticize Sunday’s announcement where eight OPEC+ producers — including group leader Saudi Arabia and key allies Kuwait and the UAE — said they would remove more than a combined 1 million barrels per day from global oil markets, as part of an independent initiative unlinked to the broader OPEC+ policy.
This adds to Russia’s existing intentions to trim 500,000 barrels per day of its own production from February output levels, now until the end of the year — bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess of 1.6 million barrels per day.
“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said, according to Reuters.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly lambasted the OPEC+ group for its production cuts, citing the inflationary toll on households and flinging accusations of camaraderie with sanctions-struck Russia. Curbs in production lead to smaller supply, causing higher prices at the pump in importing countries which then provides a boost for headline inflation figures.
Relations devolved into a war of words with OPEC+ chair Saudi Arabia at the end of last year, when the oil group agreed a 2 million barrels per day cut until the end of 2023 — a decision upheld at ministerial and technical committees since.
One such technical council, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee concluded on Monday with a statement that acknowledged the voluntary cuts, making no mention of a broader change in formal production policy.
Referring to the voluntary cuts, the OPEC Secretariat said they represent “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
The JMMC will next convene on June 4, with a full ministerial meeting to follow.
Formal group action is arguably no longer required, with front-month June Brent futures prices up by $4.44 per barrel from the Friday settlement to $84.33 per barrel at nearly 10 a.m. London time. Some analysts now warn of prices soaring to $100 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs could drive up Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
“The anticipated increase in oil prices for the rest of the year as a result of these voluntary cuts could fuel global inflation, prompting a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes from central banks across the world. That would, however, lower economic growth and reduce oil demand expansion,” said Victor Ponsford of Rystad Energy in a research note.
Tamas Varga, of oil broker PVM, flagged the broader political risks of the organized voluntary cuts, telling CNBC that headline inflation should rise faster than anticipated.
“But central banks might not deviate from the course of slowing down the hike in borrowing as their views are chiefly shaped by core inflation figures, which will not be as much affected by stronger oil prices as headline data,” he said.
“The voices of the proponents of the NOPEC bill in the US Congress will also get louder and they will accuse OPEC+ to use oil as a weapon. The step is unreservedly bullish, for now macro worries are overtaken by supply concerns. The move will also lead to further souring of the Saudi-US relationship.”
The NOPEC — No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels— bill refers to proposed U.S. legislation that would open OPEC+ countries to potential antitrust legal action.
The U.S. can attempt to combat price hikes by releasing further volumes from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves — with one anonymous OPEC+ delegate saying that Washington has encumbered its fight against inflation by blocking global access to Venezuela and Iranian volumes, while EU nations likewise refrain from Russian purchases out of solidarity with the invaded Ukraine.
OPEC+ delegates have previously also found fault with western nations’ windfall taxes on energy companies — which they claim received no consistent support when WTI futures traded in negative territory in April 2020 — and with the accelerated shift toward renewables that has reduced hydrocarbon investments without producing sufficient alternative green fuel to fully meet consumer demands.
Spare capacity has been at the heart of recent OPEC+ pronouncements, with the group stepping in to protect the appeal of stable return for long-term investments in oil projects. Nearly all of the countries participating in the recently-announced independent cuts possess additional capacity.
One anonymous OPEC+ source said discussions to coordinate further independent cuts gained traction toward the end of last week, when volatility in the banking sector following the failures of several U.S. and Swiss lenders eroded investor confidence in more historically volatile assets, such as oil. OPEC+ delegates have previously expressed that the oil impact of the banking turbulence would be short-lived, with longer-term questions lingering over the looming demand of a reopening China, the world’s largest consumer.
“What happened to the oil prices over the last three weeks was nothing to do with oil factors, it was everything to do with the banking crisis, and the fears that brings with it. We also had a huge, huge increase in [the] short market, and that is something that OPEC are very keen to stomp out,” Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Investors generally assume short positions when they expect market or price declines.
“I do believe, if the market overtightens, or exogenous issues or shocks fade, they will reverse this cut along the line. So this isn’t set in stone for the rest of the year, but very clearly defending a floor.”
Voluntary production moves are easier to agree and unwind without staining domestic or external OPEC+ politics. Such cuts have previously been accepted by the group, provided they aligned with the spirit of existing OPEC+ policies — but they have typically expressed the initiative of a single country, barring temporary Saudi-Kuwaiti-UAE reductions organized during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A coordinated gesture of Sunday’s scale effectively creates a second, unofficial agreement on top of the existing formal OPEC+ strategy — one that does not command formal commitments and can be more readily defended when individual oil ministries face pressures from their own governments or state oil companies to increase output and short-term revenues. Independent cuts also bypass the need for unanimous OPEC+ member approval and tentatively avoid external accusations of organized anti-consumer behavior.
But the gesture will not bridge the growing political rift between OPEC+ kingpin Saudi Arabia and the Biden administration, whose influence has been increasingly supplanted by China in the Middle East. In the past month, Beijing brokered a resumption of relations between arch-rivals Tehran and Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia also taking steps to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner.
“[The organized voluntary cuts] certainly would play into the narrative that the U.S. is losing its influence in the region to either influence the actions of core OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have traditionally been client states of the U.S.,” Andy Critchlow, EMEA head of news at S&P Global Platts, told CNBC.
“You can’t really look at this in isolation from the wider geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is seeing these core oil producers shift closer to China, shift much closer to Russia. You know, they like operating in this multipolar world, instead of being completely tied to U.S. dependency.”
Fossil fuels just hit a record low in the US electricity mix last month, while solar and wind soared to all-time highs, according to fresh data from global energy think tank Ember.
In March 2025, fossil fuels accounted for less than 50% – 49.2% – of electricity generated for the first month on record. This beats the previous monthly record low of 51% set in April 2024.
“This clearly demonstrates the growing role of wind and solar in the US energy system,” said Nicolas Fulghum, senior analyst at global energy think tank Ember. “This is a first signal that the US is approaching a tipping point where clean power takes the lead over fossil generation, and where the importance of coal and gas inevitably starts to fade.”
What this means is that clean energy generated more than half – 50.8% – of US electricity for the first month on record. The record was driven by a surge in wind and solar power, which hit a new high of 24.4% of US electricity in March 2025.
In March 2025, US solar increased an astonishing 37% (+8.3 TWh) compared to March 2024. Wind increased by 12% (+5.7 TWh). Together, wind and solar reached an all-time high, generating 83 TWh of US electricity, 11% higher than the previous record of 75 TWh set in April 2024. Fossil fuel generation fell by 2.5% (-4.3 TWh) compared to March 2024.
The milestone is the result of a long-term decline of fossil generation in the US power sector, with wind and solar growing substantially over the last decade. In March 2015, fossil generation still provided 65% of US electricity generation. Wind and solar generation stood at just 5.7%. Since then, the share of wind and solar power has more than quadrupled.
“Wind and solar power are pushing fossil fuels out of the mix,” said Fulghum. “The reality on the ground is not one of a return to fossil fuels in the US, it’s the continued growth of solar and wind power that will be the dominant driver of electricity generation growth in the US.”
Solar power is set to account for more than half of new generating capacity installed in the US in 2025, with more than a third of new solar panels going to Texas. Solar adoption has exploded in just a decade. In March 2015, solar power accounted for just 1% of US electricity generation. By March 2025, it’s grown to 9.2%.
Last month, Ember published the report “US Electricity 2025,” which covered changes and trends in the US power sector in 2024. Solar was the fastest and largest growing source of electricity in the US in 2024. Wind and solar combined rose to a record 17% of the US electricity mix in 2024, overtaking coal for the first time, which accounted for 15%.
Read more: Made-in-America solar just got a big win in Louisiana
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Lease deals get all the hype, but most people still want to own the car after they’re done making all those payments on it. If that sounds like you, and you’ve been waiting for the interest rates on auto loans to drop, you’re in luck: there are a bunch of great plug-in cars you can buy with 0% financing and at pre-tariff prices this April!
As I was putting this list together, I realized there were plenty of ways for me to present this information. “Best EVs ..?” Too opinion based. “Cheapest EVs ..?” Too much research. “Best deal ..?” That’s usually subjective, but as automakers and dealers rush to raise prices in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs, two brands – Ford and Nissan – stand apart.
In the end, I went with alphabetical order, by make, so you’ll find out more about Ford and Nissan’s approach to the new market reality when you get to them. And, as for which deals are new this month? You’re just gonna have to read the article. Enjoy!
Acura ZDX
Manufactured in Spring Hill, Tennessee, the 2024 Acura ZDX uses a GM Ultium battery and drive motors, but the styling, interior, and infotainment software are all Honda. That means you’ll get a solidly-built EV with GM levels of parts support and Honda levels of fit, finish, and quality control. All that plus Apple CarPlay and (through April 30th) 0% financing for up to 72 months makes the ZDX one the best sporty crossover values in the business.
Chevy Blazer, Equinox EVs
Both the Chevy Blazer EV and Equinox EV are manufactured at GM’s Ramos Arizpe plant in Coahuila, Mexico, and each offers their own takes on the five-passenger family SUV. Despite any incoming tariffs, the crossovers you’ll find on dealer lots today still represent a solid value, with the cost of base model Equinox LT FWD models with 319 miles of EPA-rated range dropping to just $27,500 after you apply the $7,500 Federal tax credit (for now, still a thing).
Chrysler Pacifica PHEV
When the plug-in hybrid version of the Chrysler Pacifica minivan first went on sale all the way back in 2016, it seemed to imply that the old Chrysler Corporation was going to race ahead of the other Big Three US carmakers.
That didn’t happen, but the Pacifica is still the king of cupholders, while the van’s stow n’ go seating, and all the other practical, clever details that add up to remind you Chrysler invented these things – and through April 30th, you can get 0% financing for up to 72 months on 2025 MY examples of this made-in-Canada plug-in hybrid and cover up to 32 miles of your daily driving needs on the clean, pure power of electrons.
Ford Mustang Mach-E
As I mentioned at the top of the article, both Ford and Nissan have taken steps to push back against the Trump tariffs – and in Ford’s case, that means big discounts, employee pricing for all, and free chargers for EV buyers.
In addition to employee pricing, 2024 Mustang Mach-Es continue to offer 0% APR financing for up to 72 months. That offer appears to be stackable with $2,500 in bonus cash, too, and Tesla owners and lessees can also score $1,000 in conquest cash for up to $3,500 off.
GMC HUMMER EV
The biggest of the Ultium-based EVs, these Hamtramck, Michigan-built machines are seriously impressive EVs, with shockingly quick acceleration and on-road handling that seems to defy the laws of physics once you understand that these are, essentially, medium-duty trucks. If you’re a fan of heavy metal (and plastic), you’ll definitely want to stop by your local GMC dealer and give the rugged GMC HUMMER EV a test drive.
Honda Prologue
Manufactured alongside its GM siblings at the Ramos Arizpe plant in Coahuila, Mexico, the hot-selling Honda Prologue pairs GM’s excellent Ultium platform with Honda sensibilities and Apple CarPlay to create a winning combination.
If you’ve been holding off, we’ve got good news: there’s still a few remaining 2024 models in dealer inventory out there. To make room for the 2025 models, Honda is offering 0% APR for up to 72 months on the remaining 2024s.
Click here to find a 0% interest (72 mo.) deal on a 2024 Prologue near you.
Hyundai IONIQ 6
The ultra-efficient Hyundai IONIQ 6 is one of the most compelling Model 3 competitors out there – but that could change if the Korean-built sedan gets hit with heavy tariffs. To make sure that doesn’t happen, Hyundai is investing tens of billions of dollars into a US manufacturing base, creating new American jobs and ensuring (kinda) that it can continue to deliver real value to its customers.
The fast-charging IONIQ 6 offers up to 342 miles of range on its most efficient version, while even the shortest range models offer 220 miles of range. Through April 30th, Hyundai is offering a rare 0% interest deal on remaining 2024 examples of its slippery sedan for up to 48 months.
All the Kia EVs
Kia has something for just about everyone in its EV range, from the fun, compact, and underrated Niro EV to the practical three-row EV9 to the supercar-baiting performance of the Kia EV6 – a car that made its global debut on a drag strip running alongside a Lamborghini, a Porsche, and an AMG Mercedes GT.
Through April 30th, you can get 0% interest on just about every new EV you’ll find on your Kia dealer’s lot (minus 2025 Kia EV6 models). Click the links below to find yours.
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
One of the first three-row plugin cars to hit the market, Mitsubishi’s Outlander PHEV has always presented a strong value proposition with up to 38 miles of electric range from its 20 kWh li-ion battery and room for seven (in a pinch), making it a great “lily pad” vehicle for suburban families who want to drive electric but still worry about being able to find a charging station when they need one.
That might change when the tariffs take full effect, however – so if you’re looking for an affordable 7-passenger plug-in with a great safety rating at a reasonably affordable price, act fast.
Nissan Ariya
I’ve already said that the Nissan Ariya didn’t get a fair shake. If you click that link, you’ll read about a car that offers solid driving dynamics, innovative interior design, and all the practicality that makes five-passenger crossovers the must-haves they’ve become for most families. Now, Nissan is slashing prices across the line as their competitors are raising theirs, making the case for the Ariya even stronger than before.
With great discounts available at participating dealers, Supercharger access, and 0% interest from Nissan for up to 72 months on both 2024 and 25 MY Ariya EVs.
Toyota bZ4X
Built in Toyota City, Japan, the bZ4X EV is a capable, dependable crossover with room for five and Toyota’s reputation for reliability and longevity to boot. With 0% financing and big discounts on both 2024 and 2025 models, the bZ4X might be the best deal on your local Toyota dealer’s lot.
Volkswagen ID.4
One of the most popular legacy EVs, the ID.4 offers Volkswagen build quality and (for 2024) a Chat-GPT enabled interface. To keep ID.4 sales rolling, VW dealers are getting aggressive with discounts, making this fast-charging, 291 mile EPA-rated range, 5-star safety rated EV a value proposition that’s tough to beat.
This month, get a Volkswagen ID.4 fresh from the company’s Chattanooga, Tennessee assembly plant with 0% financing for up to 72 months plus a $5,000 customer cash bonus on remaining 2024 models to stack with it.
Disclaimer: the vehicle models and financing deals above were sourced from CarsDirect, CarEdge, CarFax, USNews, and (where mentioned) the OEM websites – and were current as of 03APR2025. These deals may not be available in every market, with every discount, or for every buyer (the standard “with approved credit” fine print should be considered implied). Check with your local dealer(s) for more information.
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Environment
Why OPEC+ is accelerating oil production as prices are tanking and tariffs hammer markets
The Phillips 66 Company’s Los Angeles Refinery in California.
Bing Guan | Reuters
The oil price outlook is being hit with more bearish forecasts on the back of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping and market-hammering tariff announcements. Businesses and investors worry that a trade war and lower global growth lies ahead.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday reduced its December 2025 forecasts for global and U.S. benchmarks Brent crude and WTI by $5 to $66 and $62 a barrel, respectively, “because the two key downside risks we have flagged are realizing, namely tariff escalation and somewhat higher OPEC+ supply.”
The bank also cut its forecasts for the oil benchmarks in 2025 and 2026, adding that “we no longer forecast a price range, because price volatility is likely to stay elevated on higher recession risk.” Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence predict that in a worst-case scenario, global oil demand growth could be slashed by 500,000 barrels per day.
JPMorgan, for its part, raised its recession odds for the global economy to 60% for this year, up from a previous forecast of 40%.
Markets were therefore stunned when OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world’s crude oil — along with its non-OPEC allies that together comprise OPEC+ — chose not only to go ahead with its previously held plans to increase oil production, but also to nearly triple the expected increase figure.
Eight key OPEC+ producers on Thursday agreed to raise combined crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day, speeding up the pace of their scheduled hikes and pushing down oil prices. The group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — was widely expected to implement an increase of just under 140,000 barrels per day next month.
The news pushed oil prices 6% lower.
OPEC+ bullishness and appeasing Trump
Several factors underpin the oil-producing alliance’s decision. One is that the group is bullish on oil demand later in the year, putting it firmly in the minority as investor outlooks sour and fears of a global slowdown worsen.
The eight OPEC+ members behind the production decision cited “the continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook” in their statement Thursday, saying that “this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.”
The statement added that “the gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions.”
Another likely reason for the group’s move has to do with another T-word: the man in the White House, who during his first term in office and from the very start of his second, has loudly demanded that the oil producer group pump more crude to help bring down prices for Americans.
“First of all, this is partly about appeasing Trump,” Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday.
“Trump will be putting pressure on OPEC to reduce oil prices, which reduces global energy prices, to help offset the inflationary impact of his tariffs.”
OPEC officials have denied that the move was made to appease Trump.
Compliance and market share
Meanwhile, as compliance is a major issue for OPEC+ — with countries overproducing crude beyond their quotas, complicating the group’s efforts to control how much supply it allows into the market — the move could be a way to enforce that, according to Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets.
“We think a desire by the OPEC leadership to send a warning signal to Kazakhstan, Iraq, and even Russia about the cost of continued overproduction underlies the decision.”
Helima Croft
head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets
“We think a desire by the OPEC leadership to send a warning signal to Kazakhstan, Iraq, and even Russia about the cost of continued overproduction underlies the decision,” Croft wrote in a note published Thursday. She referenced the March 2020 oil price war, when Saudi Arabia flooded the market with supply to tank oil prices and forced Russia back into compliance after Moscow initially refused to curb production to help the alliance stabilize prices. The price war caused Brent crude prices to go as low as $15 a barrel.
The production increases are also “an example of OPEC increasing their market share,” Kavonic said, adding that it “ultimately does come at the expense of the United States [shale] patch,” which U.S. producers likely will not be too thrilled about.
What happens next?
OPEC+ appears confident about the market turning a corner in the coming months on the assumption that oil demand will increase in the summer and the tariff wars will be resolved in the coming months, said Nader Itayim, editorial manager at Argus Media.
“These countries are largely comfortable with the $70, $75 per barrel band,” Itayim said.
What comes next depends on the trajectory of the tariffs and a potential trade war. Oil dropping into the $60 range could force pauses or even a reversal in OPEC+ production increase plans, analysts say – although that is likely to be met with resistance from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan that have long been itching to increase their oil production for their own revenues.
Whatever happens, the group maintains the flexibility to adapt its plans month by month, Itayim noted.
“If things don’t quite go the way they imagine, all it does take, really, is a phone call.”
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