OPEC+ just made the Fed’s job more complicated. Here’s why they did it — and what could be next
The logo of the OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on October 4, 2022. In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day.
Joe Klamar | Afp | Getty Images
Several OPEC+ members are set to tighten global production by an additional 1.16 million barrels per day until the end of the year, further burdening central bank efforts to curtail global inflation — but critically protecting the alliance’s broader output strategy from political pressures.
Washington has stepped in to criticize Sunday’s announcement where eight OPEC+ producers — including group leader Saudi Arabia and key allies Kuwait and the UAE — said they would remove more than a combined 1 million barrels per day from global oil markets, as part of an independent initiative unlinked to the broader OPEC+ policy.
This adds to Russia’s existing intentions to trim 500,000 barrels per day of its own production from February output levels, now until the end of the year — bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess of 1.6 million barrels per day.
“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said, according to Reuters.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly lambasted the OPEC+ group for its production cuts, citing the inflationary toll on households and flinging accusations of camaraderie with sanctions-struck Russia. Curbs in production lead to smaller supply, causing higher prices at the pump in importing countries which then provides a boost for headline inflation figures.
Relations devolved into a war of words with OPEC+ chair Saudi Arabia at the end of last year, when the oil group agreed a 2 million barrels per day cut until the end of 2023 — a decision upheld at ministerial and technical committees since.
One such technical council, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee concluded on Monday with a statement that acknowledged the voluntary cuts, making no mention of a broader change in formal production policy.
Referring to the voluntary cuts, the OPEC Secretariat said they represent “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
The JMMC will next convene on June 4, with a full ministerial meeting to follow.
Formal group action is arguably no longer required, with front-month June Brent futures prices up by $4.44 per barrel from the Friday settlement to $84.33 per barrel at nearly 10 a.m. London time. Some analysts now warn of prices soaring to $100 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs could drive up Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
“The anticipated increase in oil prices for the rest of the year as a result of these voluntary cuts could fuel global inflation, prompting a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes from central banks across the world. That would, however, lower economic growth and reduce oil demand expansion,” said Victor Ponsford of Rystad Energy in a research note.
Tamas Varga, of oil broker PVM, flagged the broader political risks of the organized voluntary cuts, telling CNBC that headline inflation should rise faster than anticipated.
“But central banks might not deviate from the course of slowing down the hike in borrowing as their views are chiefly shaped by core inflation figures, which will not be as much affected by stronger oil prices as headline data,” he said.
“The voices of the proponents of the NOPEC bill in the US Congress will also get louder and they will accuse OPEC+ to use oil as a weapon. The step is unreservedly bullish, for now macro worries are overtaken by supply concerns. The move will also lead to further souring of the Saudi-US relationship.”
The NOPEC — No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels— bill refers to proposed U.S. legislation that would open OPEC+ countries to potential antitrust legal action.
The U.S. can attempt to combat price hikes by releasing further volumes from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves — with one anonymous OPEC+ delegate saying that Washington has encumbered its fight against inflation by blocking global access to Venezuela and Iranian volumes, while EU nations likewise refrain from Russian purchases out of solidarity with the invaded Ukraine.
OPEC+ delegates have previously also found fault with western nations’ windfall taxes on energy companies — which they claim received no consistent support when WTI futures traded in negative territory in April 2020 — and with the accelerated shift toward renewables that has reduced hydrocarbon investments without producing sufficient alternative green fuel to fully meet consumer demands.
Spare capacity has been at the heart of recent OPEC+ pronouncements, with the group stepping in to protect the appeal of stable return for long-term investments in oil projects. Nearly all of the countries participating in the recently-announced independent cuts possess additional capacity.
One anonymous OPEC+ source said discussions to coordinate further independent cuts gained traction toward the end of last week, when volatility in the banking sector following the failures of several U.S. and Swiss lenders eroded investor confidence in more historically volatile assets, such as oil. OPEC+ delegates have previously expressed that the oil impact of the banking turbulence would be short-lived, with longer-term questions lingering over the looming demand of a reopening China, the world’s largest consumer.
“What happened to the oil prices over the last three weeks was nothing to do with oil factors, it was everything to do with the banking crisis, and the fears that brings with it. We also had a huge, huge increase in [the] short market, and that is something that OPEC are very keen to stomp out,” Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Investors generally assume short positions when they expect market or price declines.
“I do believe, if the market overtightens, or exogenous issues or shocks fade, they will reverse this cut along the line. So this isn’t set in stone for the rest of the year, but very clearly defending a floor.”
Voluntary production moves are easier to agree and unwind without staining domestic or external OPEC+ politics. Such cuts have previously been accepted by the group, provided they aligned with the spirit of existing OPEC+ policies — but they have typically expressed the initiative of a single country, barring temporary Saudi-Kuwaiti-UAE reductions organized during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A coordinated gesture of Sunday’s scale effectively creates a second, unofficial agreement on top of the existing formal OPEC+ strategy — one that does not command formal commitments and can be more readily defended when individual oil ministries face pressures from their own governments or state oil companies to increase output and short-term revenues. Independent cuts also bypass the need for unanimous OPEC+ member approval and tentatively avoid external accusations of organized anti-consumer behavior.
But the gesture will not bridge the growing political rift between OPEC+ kingpin Saudi Arabia and the Biden administration, whose influence has been increasingly supplanted by China in the Middle East. In the past month, Beijing brokered a resumption of relations between arch-rivals Tehran and Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia also taking steps to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner.
“[The organized voluntary cuts] certainly would play into the narrative that the U.S. is losing its influence in the region to either influence the actions of core OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have traditionally been client states of the U.S.,” Andy Critchlow, EMEA head of news at S&P Global Platts, told CNBC.
“You can’t really look at this in isolation from the wider geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is seeing these core oil producers shift closer to China, shift much closer to Russia. You know, they like operating in this multipolar world, instead of being completely tied to U.S. dependency.”
The average US new car price crossed the $50,000 mark for the first time in September, according to new estimates from Kelley Blue Book (KBB). Prices have been climbing steadily for over a year, and the pace picked up this summer – but that hasn’t stopped Americans from buying.
KBB says September’s record average transaction price (ATP) was partly driven by luxury models and EVs, which pushed the market into record territory. EVs made up an estimated 11.6% of all new vehicles sold last month, which is also a record high. The average EV sold for $58,124 – up 3.5% from August’s adjusted figure.
In Q3, EV sales hit another milestone: 437,487 EVs were sold in the US, giving them a 10.5% market share. That’s nearly a 30% jump from the same period last year. With government-backed EV incentives expiring at the end of September, many buyers hurried to lock in their purchases.
Year-over-year, the average EV transaction price is basically flat, down just 0.4%. Incentives averaged 15.3% of ATP in September, or about $8,900 per vehicle – slightly lower than August but higher than a year ago, when incentives averaged 13%.
Tesla, which continues to dominate the EV market, saw an average ATP of $54,138 in September. That’s a slight dip from August and down 6.8% from a year earlier. With Tesla recently introducing the new Standard versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, KBB expects average prices across the segment to fall in the coming months. Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, thinks the market is “ripe for disruption.”
“It is important to remember that the new-vehicle market is inflationary. Prices go up over time, and today’s market is certainly reminding us of that,” said Keating. “The $20,000 vehicle is now mostly extinct, and many price-conscious buyers are sidelined or cruising in the used-vehicle market. Tariffs have introduced new cost pressure to the business, but the pricing story in September was mostly driven by the healthy mix of EVs and higher-end vehicles pushing the new-vehicle ATP into uncharted territory.”
Read more: US EV sales smash records in August as Tesla loses ground
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It’s official. The Genesis GV70 is about to get two new electrified options, including its first hybrid and extended-range (EREV) versions.
Two new Genesis GV70 electrified SUVs are coming soon
Genesis is turning 10, and it’s planning to go all out. Hyundai gave us a look at what’s coming last month during its CEO Investor Day.
The plans include Genesis expanding with new electrified powertrain offerings, including its first hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles.
Up until now, the luxury automaker has focused on fully electric (EV) or internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. By expanding into different electrified powertrains, Genesis hopes to attract new buyers to the brand while grabbing a bigger share of the luxury market.
Genesis will launch its first hybrid in 2026, the GV80. We knew the GV70 EREV would follow shortly after, but now it’s been confirmed that a hybrid model is also set to join the lineup.
We got our first look at the Genesis GV70 EREV last week. The vehicle was parked in South Korea and appeared to be nearly identical to the current model. Aside from a tag labeling it an EREV and a massive muffler at the back, it looks about the same as the Electrified GV70.
Now, we are finally getting a glimpse of the Hybrid version. The Genesis GV70 Hybrid was also caught by HealerTV in South Korea, this time with an HEV tag.
Like the EREV, the GV70 Hybrid is still covered in camouflage, but this time, you can see the vehicle has the brand’s sport package. The optional package adds sporty exterior and interior elements, including chrome around the Crest Grille and window trim.
The vehicle is still a prototype, so it could change by the time it reaches production form. However, as the reporter points out, the GV70 Hybrid could bring a unique new look to the GV70 series.
On the side of the tire, the letters “FL” are printed, which is typically shown on Hyundai vehicles set to receive a facelift.
Genesis is expected to launch the GV70 EREV in late 2026, followed by the Hybrid version sometime in early 2027.
According to Hyundai, the EREV will have a combined driving range of over 1,000 km (620 miles). Although it still runs on an electric motor, it will feature a small gas motor that acts as a generator to charge the battery and extend the driving range.
Genesis is betting on new electrified vehicles, including EVs, hybrids, and EREVs, to drive growth. The luxury brand aims to expand into up to 20 new European markets while gaining a bigger share of the US market. By 2030, Genesis aims to sell 350,000 vehicles.
Although it had planned to only offer fully electric vehicles from 2030, Genesis backed off on its commitment. Instead, it will use hybrids and EREVs as a bridge to an all-electric future.
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Duracell, the iconic US battery brand that started in the 1920s, is crossing the Atlantic to launch its first-ever EV fast charging network, Duracell E-Charge, in the UK.
Sales of gas and diesel cars will end by 2030 in the UK, which is driving EV sales and charging infrastructure growth. With more than £200 million ($266 million) in planned investment over the next decade, Duracell E-Charge is getting on the bandwagon with an aim to improve the fast charging experience.
Duracell has licensed its new network to Elektra Charge, a charge point operator set up to run the Duracell E-Charge network. The EV Network (EVN), one of the UK’s top charging infrastructure developers, will fund and build the charging hubs.
“The need for faster, more reliable charging to keep pace with EV adoption is clear,” said Reza Shaybani, CEO of The EV Network. “Duracell E-Charge is a direct response to that challenge.”
Duracell’s EV fast charging network will feature 400 kW ultra-fast chargers where drivers can pay via app, contactless, or plug-and-go. Each site will have intuitive interfaces, clear signage, and 24/7 support.
The first six Duracell E-Charge sites will come online in 2025. The Sunday Times reported that Duracell plans to grow its charging network to at least 100 charging stations with at least 500 charging points by 2030. The hubs will be strategically located along major motorways, near retail and hospitality venues, and at key city gateways.
“Charging your car should be as simple as changing the batteries in your remote,” said Mark Bloxham, managing director of Duracell E-Charge. “Plug. Play. Go.”
Electrek’s Take
I asked Duracell whether it had plans to launch Duracell E-Charge in the US, and I’ll update this story if I hear back. But if you want to know why this American legacy company launched its first DC fast charging network in the UK instead of the US, it’s a simple answer. Business-friendly, stable government policy.
Read more: InstaVolt is using GPS tracking to catch thieves stealing its EV charging cables
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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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