OPEC+ just made the Fed’s job more complicated. Here’s why they did it — and what could be next
The logo of the OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on October 4, 2022. In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day.
Joe Klamar | Afp | Getty Images
Several OPEC+ members are set to tighten global production by an additional 1.16 million barrels per day until the end of the year, further burdening central bank efforts to curtail global inflation — but critically protecting the alliance’s broader output strategy from political pressures.
Washington has stepped in to criticize Sunday’s announcement where eight OPEC+ producers — including group leader Saudi Arabia and key allies Kuwait and the UAE — said they would remove more than a combined 1 million barrels per day from global oil markets, as part of an independent initiative unlinked to the broader OPEC+ policy.
This adds to Russia’s existing intentions to trim 500,000 barrels per day of its own production from February output levels, now until the end of the year — bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess of 1.6 million barrels per day.
“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said, according to Reuters.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly lambasted the OPEC+ group for its production cuts, citing the inflationary toll on households and flinging accusations of camaraderie with sanctions-struck Russia. Curbs in production lead to smaller supply, causing higher prices at the pump in importing countries which then provides a boost for headline inflation figures.
Relations devolved into a war of words with OPEC+ chair Saudi Arabia at the end of last year, when the oil group agreed a 2 million barrels per day cut until the end of 2023 — a decision upheld at ministerial and technical committees since.
One such technical council, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee concluded on Monday with a statement that acknowledged the voluntary cuts, making no mention of a broader change in formal production policy.
Referring to the voluntary cuts, the OPEC Secretariat said they represent “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
The JMMC will next convene on June 4, with a full ministerial meeting to follow.
Formal group action is arguably no longer required, with front-month June Brent futures prices up by $4.44 per barrel from the Friday settlement to $84.33 per barrel at nearly 10 a.m. London time. Some analysts now warn of prices soaring to $100 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs could drive up Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
“The anticipated increase in oil prices for the rest of the year as a result of these voluntary cuts could fuel global inflation, prompting a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes from central banks across the world. That would, however, lower economic growth and reduce oil demand expansion,” said Victor Ponsford of Rystad Energy in a research note.
Tamas Varga, of oil broker PVM, flagged the broader political risks of the organized voluntary cuts, telling CNBC that headline inflation should rise faster than anticipated.
“But central banks might not deviate from the course of slowing down the hike in borrowing as their views are chiefly shaped by core inflation figures, which will not be as much affected by stronger oil prices as headline data,” he said.
“The voices of the proponents of the NOPEC bill in the US Congress will also get louder and they will accuse OPEC+ to use oil as a weapon. The step is unreservedly bullish, for now macro worries are overtaken by supply concerns. The move will also lead to further souring of the Saudi-US relationship.”
The NOPEC — No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels— bill refers to proposed U.S. legislation that would open OPEC+ countries to potential antitrust legal action.
The U.S. can attempt to combat price hikes by releasing further volumes from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves — with one anonymous OPEC+ delegate saying that Washington has encumbered its fight against inflation by blocking global access to Venezuela and Iranian volumes, while EU nations likewise refrain from Russian purchases out of solidarity with the invaded Ukraine.
OPEC+ delegates have previously also found fault with western nations’ windfall taxes on energy companies — which they claim received no consistent support when WTI futures traded in negative territory in April 2020 — and with the accelerated shift toward renewables that has reduced hydrocarbon investments without producing sufficient alternative green fuel to fully meet consumer demands.
Spare capacity has been at the heart of recent OPEC+ pronouncements, with the group stepping in to protect the appeal of stable return for long-term investments in oil projects. Nearly all of the countries participating in the recently-announced independent cuts possess additional capacity.
One anonymous OPEC+ source said discussions to coordinate further independent cuts gained traction toward the end of last week, when volatility in the banking sector following the failures of several U.S. and Swiss lenders eroded investor confidence in more historically volatile assets, such as oil. OPEC+ delegates have previously expressed that the oil impact of the banking turbulence would be short-lived, with longer-term questions lingering over the looming demand of a reopening China, the world’s largest consumer.
“What happened to the oil prices over the last three weeks was nothing to do with oil factors, it was everything to do with the banking crisis, and the fears that brings with it. We also had a huge, huge increase in [the] short market, and that is something that OPEC are very keen to stomp out,” Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Investors generally assume short positions when they expect market or price declines.
“I do believe, if the market overtightens, or exogenous issues or shocks fade, they will reverse this cut along the line. So this isn’t set in stone for the rest of the year, but very clearly defending a floor.”
Voluntary production moves are easier to agree and unwind without staining domestic or external OPEC+ politics. Such cuts have previously been accepted by the group, provided they aligned with the spirit of existing OPEC+ policies — but they have typically expressed the initiative of a single country, barring temporary Saudi-Kuwaiti-UAE reductions organized during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A coordinated gesture of Sunday’s scale effectively creates a second, unofficial agreement on top of the existing formal OPEC+ strategy — one that does not command formal commitments and can be more readily defended when individual oil ministries face pressures from their own governments or state oil companies to increase output and short-term revenues. Independent cuts also bypass the need for unanimous OPEC+ member approval and tentatively avoid external accusations of organized anti-consumer behavior.
But the gesture will not bridge the growing political rift between OPEC+ kingpin Saudi Arabia and the Biden administration, whose influence has been increasingly supplanted by China in the Middle East. In the past month, Beijing brokered a resumption of relations between arch-rivals Tehran and Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia also taking steps to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner.
“[The organized voluntary cuts] certainly would play into the narrative that the U.S. is losing its influence in the region to either influence the actions of core OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have traditionally been client states of the U.S.,” Andy Critchlow, EMEA head of news at S&P Global Platts, told CNBC.
“You can’t really look at this in isolation from the wider geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is seeing these core oil producers shift closer to China, shift much closer to Russia. You know, they like operating in this multipolar world, instead of being completely tied to U.S. dependency.”
Tesla’s stock (TSLA) crashed by as much as 5% in pre-market trading after President Trump threatened to set DOGE on Elon Musk, who has been criticizing his ‘Big Beautiful Bill’.
After being kindly shown the door to the White House last month, Musk had a brief moment of clarity and started to criticize Trump and the Republican party, which he helped elect with almost $300 million of his own money in the 2024 elections.
He highlighted how Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is expected to increase the deficit and debt. The Tesla CEO even linked Trump to Jeffrey Epstein, something that has been well known for decades, but Musk conveniently ignored it as he was backing the President and wearing hats that read, “Trump was right about everything.”
Musk quickly calmed down and even apologized for “going too far” and started praising Trump again.
That didn’t last long.
Over the last few days, as the Senate attempts to pass Trump’s budget and tax bill, Musk has renewed his efforts to halt the legislation.
The CEO appeared to renew the attacks after the Senate updated the bill to kill the EV incentive sooner and to increase taxes on solar and wind projects.
However, Musk said that he doesn’t mind EV and renewable energy subsidies going away, but he believes that fossil fuel subsidies should also be removed, which is not in the plans at all.
Trump campaigned on Musk’s money, claiming that he would get America to “drill, baby, drill” again.
The CEO went as far as threatening any Senator who vote for the bill, all Republicans, to face his money in their next primary. He added that if the bill passes, he will create a new “America Party.’
Musk’s attacks have focused on the bill itself and the Republicans voting for it, but Trump likes to call it his bill, and unsurprisingly, he is unhappy with Musk.
Last night, he took to Truth Social to highlight again that Musk “would probably have to close up shop and head back to South Africa” without US government subsidies.
The President then suggested that he could have DOGE, a department that Musk created, go after him and the subsidies that his companies get:
Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for President, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate. It is ridiculous, and was always a major part of my campaign. Electric cars are fine, but not everyone should be forced to own one. Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!
Tesla’s stock dropped by more than 4% in pre-market trading following the President’s threat.
Musk responded to the President by pointing out that he is asking to remove the subsidies, but he didn’t add his usual caveat of also removing all subsidies for fossil fuel.
Electrek’s Take
It’s both sad and funny to see Elon now. It’s sad because the US is plunging back into an energy dark age of relying on fossil fuels. Still, it’s amusing because Elon is acting as if he’s just now realizing what he has done, despite everyone but a few cult members screaming at him that this was going to happen for the last year.
Elon got what he wanted out of Trump with his $300 million, and now, he realizes that his influence has limits and that Trump is going to do way more damage than just what Musk wanted out of him: to stop illegal immigration and the so scary “woke mind virus.”
The result will be a significant blow to the growth of electric vehicles and clean energy in the US, and Tesla will be affected in the process, exactly what we have been saying for the last year.
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Police across the US are cracking down on illegal use of out-of-class e-bikes or non-street-legal electric motorcycles used on public roads. It used to be that if you sped off on an illegal electric dirt bike or mini bike after a traffic stop in California, there was a good chance you’d get away. Most police departments don’t want to engage in high-speed chases over these types of violations, especially if the rider isn’t wearing a helmet or is weaving through dense traffic. And since these types of bikes almost never have license plates, merely outrunning or outmaneuvering a police cruiser through some bushes or over a sidewalk was usually enough to evade justice. But lately, a new kind of chase is happening – from above.
Several California police departments are now turning to small, simple-to-operate drones similar to consumer drones to track down illegal e-bike and electric dirt bike riders who flee traffic stops.
These drones, often built on platforms used by consumer drones but with upgraded camera equipment, are quiet, effective, and don’t put pedestrians or officers at risk like a high-speed pursuit.
And while the tech isn’t new, the way it’s being deployed marks a turning point in how cities are responding to the rise of unregistered, high-powered electric motorbikes and minibikes on public roads.
Recently, the Irvine Police Department shared details on how they caught a minor who was illegally operating a Stark Varg electric dirt bike on public roads and then sped away from police attempting to conduct a traffic stop.
“A 16-year-old juvenile recklessly fled from officers during an attempted traffic stop on Jamboree, reaching high speeds. The rider ran multiple red lights, placing innocent lives in danger. Thankfully, with the assistance of our drone team, officers quickly located the teenager and safely took him into custody. He was later released to his parent. The juvenile was unlicensed, and the motorcycle was purchased by a parent who knowingly allowed their child to ride it. That parent was cited, and the motorcycle was impounded.”
In a similar case just a few weeks ago, the Desert Hot Springs Police Department used a similar drone setup to catch a juvenile illegally operating a non-street-legal minibike on public roads.
As the department shared in a social media post mocking the rider, “Officers attempted to stop a suspect illegally riding a mini bike on city streets. Instead of pulling over like a reasonable person, he chose to flee… on a mini bike. Little did he know, our drone team was already in the air and had front-row seats to this low-speed drama. They followed him as he weaved through traffic, blew through stop signs, and ultimately led us right back to his own front door.”
The DHSPD explained that after the drone watched from above and followed the rider home, police officers arrived and knocked on his front door, which he promptly answered. “He was arrested at his residence without incident,” the post continued. “The mini bike? Impounded. The escape attempt? Hilarious.”
Some police departments in California are still employing police helicopters as their go-to “eye in the sky” for tracking Sur-ron riders who try to run from police, but these light and inexpensive drones are proving to be a more cost-effective and efficient alternative.
The rise of unregistered and often illegally modified electric motorbikes that don’t fit inside existing three-class electric bicycle regulations – many of them closer to light motorcycles than bicycles – has created a real challenge for cities. Riders can disappear down alleyways, weave through traffic, or vanish into neighborhoods where a patrol car can’t follow.
But a few grand for a simple drone? That’s a safer, cheaper solution that can hover and follow quietly from above, sometimes all the way to a suspect’s front door.
This drone-based enforcement strategy raises some interesting questions – not just about surveillance, but about how cities will regulate a fast-evolving micromobility landscape. As out-of-class electric bikes and light electric dirt bikes blur legal categories and create enforcement gaps, tech like drones is stepping in to close them.
Whether that’s a good thing or not depends on your perspective. But one thing’s for sure: the days of just gunning it and getting away are coming to an end.
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The Dodge Charger Daytona EV made headlines when it rolled out fake engine noises as a way to make the EV appeal to muscle car drivers. As it turns out, they weren’t the right sort of fake engine noises – and now Stellantis has to recall 8,000 of them for a fix.
According to the ChryCo fans at Mopar Insider, Stellantis is recalling ~8,390 examples of its 2024 to 2025 Dodge Charger Daytona EVs because of an exterior amplifier that may be missing critical enabling the amp to emit exterior sounds – including the Federally mandated pedestrian warning sounds designed to keep pedestrians safe.
What’s more, the recall’s “suspect period” reportedly begins on 30APR2024, when the first 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona was produced, and ends 18MAR2025 … when the last Charger EV was produced.
RECALL CHRONOLOGY
- On April 17, 2025, the FCA US LLC (“FCA US”) Technical Safety and Regulatory Compliance (“TSRC”) organization opened an investigation into certain 2024–2025 model year Dodge Charger vehicles that may not emit exterior sound.
- From April 17, 2025, through May 13, 2025, FCA US TSRC met with FCA US Engineering and the supplier to understand all potential failure modes associated with the issue. They also reviewed warranty data, field records, and customer assistance records to determine field occurrences.
- On May 14, 2025, the FCA US TSRC organization determined that a vehicle build issue existed on certain vehicles related to a lack of EV exterior sound, potentially resulting in noncompliance with FMVSS No. 141.
Without the software patch, the vehicles don’t comply with the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) No. 141, “Minimum Sound Requirements for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles.” The rule requires noisemakers for EVs and hybrids when operating under 19 mph, the safest speeds for pedestrians.
Basically, if you have a Dodge Charger EV, expect to get a recall notice.
It just keeps getting funnier
If you’re not familiar with the Charger Daytona EV’s “Fratzonic Chambered Exhaust,” it’s a system that employs a combination of digital sound synthesis and a physical tuning chamber (translation: a speaker) to produce a 126 decibel sound that approximately imitates a Hellcat Hemi V8 ICE. That’s loud enough to cause most people physical pain, according to Yale University – putting it somewhere between a loud rock concert and a passenger jet at takeoff.
While you could argue that such noises are part and parcel with powerful combustion, they’re completely irrelevant to an EV, and speak to a particular sort of infantile delusion of masculinity that I, frankly, have never been able to wrap my head around. Something akin to the, “Hey, look at me! I’m a big tough guy!” attention-whoring of a suburban Harley rider in a “Sons of Anarchy” novelty cut, without even enough courage to ride a motorcycle, you know?
You know – and I bet you can help me dial in the the comparison to perfection (and help me explain why the car just isn’t selling) in the comments section at the bottom of the page.
SOURCE: Mopar Insiders; featured image by Stellantis.
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