OPEC+ just made the Fed’s job more complicated. Here’s why they did it — and what could be next
The logo of the OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on October 4, 2022. In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day.
Joe Klamar | Afp | Getty Images
Several OPEC+ members are set to tighten global production by an additional 1.16 million barrels per day until the end of the year, further burdening central bank efforts to curtail global inflation — but critically protecting the alliance’s broader output strategy from political pressures.
Washington has stepped in to criticize Sunday’s announcement where eight OPEC+ producers — including group leader Saudi Arabia and key allies Kuwait and the UAE — said they would remove more than a combined 1 million barrels per day from global oil markets, as part of an independent initiative unlinked to the broader OPEC+ policy.
This adds to Russia’s existing intentions to trim 500,000 barrels per day of its own production from February output levels, now until the end of the year — bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess of 1.6 million barrels per day.
“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said, according to Reuters.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly lambasted the OPEC+ group for its production cuts, citing the inflationary toll on households and flinging accusations of camaraderie with sanctions-struck Russia. Curbs in production lead to smaller supply, causing higher prices at the pump in importing countries which then provides a boost for headline inflation figures.
Relations devolved into a war of words with OPEC+ chair Saudi Arabia at the end of last year, when the oil group agreed a 2 million barrels per day cut until the end of 2023 — a decision upheld at ministerial and technical committees since.
One such technical council, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee concluded on Monday with a statement that acknowledged the voluntary cuts, making no mention of a broader change in formal production policy.
Referring to the voluntary cuts, the OPEC Secretariat said they represent “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
The JMMC will next convene on June 4, with a full ministerial meeting to follow.
Formal group action is arguably no longer required, with front-month June Brent futures prices up by $4.44 per barrel from the Friday settlement to $84.33 per barrel at nearly 10 a.m. London time. Some analysts now warn of prices soaring to $100 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs could drive up Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
“The anticipated increase in oil prices for the rest of the year as a result of these voluntary cuts could fuel global inflation, prompting a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes from central banks across the world. That would, however, lower economic growth and reduce oil demand expansion,” said Victor Ponsford of Rystad Energy in a research note.
Tamas Varga, of oil broker PVM, flagged the broader political risks of the organized voluntary cuts, telling CNBC that headline inflation should rise faster than anticipated.
“But central banks might not deviate from the course of slowing down the hike in borrowing as their views are chiefly shaped by core inflation figures, which will not be as much affected by stronger oil prices as headline data,” he said.
“The voices of the proponents of the NOPEC bill in the US Congress will also get louder and they will accuse OPEC+ to use oil as a weapon. The step is unreservedly bullish, for now macro worries are overtaken by supply concerns. The move will also lead to further souring of the Saudi-US relationship.”
The NOPEC — No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels— bill refers to proposed U.S. legislation that would open OPEC+ countries to potential antitrust legal action.
The U.S. can attempt to combat price hikes by releasing further volumes from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves — with one anonymous OPEC+ delegate saying that Washington has encumbered its fight against inflation by blocking global access to Venezuela and Iranian volumes, while EU nations likewise refrain from Russian purchases out of solidarity with the invaded Ukraine.
OPEC+ delegates have previously also found fault with western nations’ windfall taxes on energy companies — which they claim received no consistent support when WTI futures traded in negative territory in April 2020 — and with the accelerated shift toward renewables that has reduced hydrocarbon investments without producing sufficient alternative green fuel to fully meet consumer demands.
Spare capacity has been at the heart of recent OPEC+ pronouncements, with the group stepping in to protect the appeal of stable return for long-term investments in oil projects. Nearly all of the countries participating in the recently-announced independent cuts possess additional capacity.
One anonymous OPEC+ source said discussions to coordinate further independent cuts gained traction toward the end of last week, when volatility in the banking sector following the failures of several U.S. and Swiss lenders eroded investor confidence in more historically volatile assets, such as oil. OPEC+ delegates have previously expressed that the oil impact of the banking turbulence would be short-lived, with longer-term questions lingering over the looming demand of a reopening China, the world’s largest consumer.
“What happened to the oil prices over the last three weeks was nothing to do with oil factors, it was everything to do with the banking crisis, and the fears that brings with it. We also had a huge, huge increase in [the] short market, and that is something that OPEC are very keen to stomp out,” Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Investors generally assume short positions when they expect market or price declines.
“I do believe, if the market overtightens, or exogenous issues or shocks fade, they will reverse this cut along the line. So this isn’t set in stone for the rest of the year, but very clearly defending a floor.”
Voluntary production moves are easier to agree and unwind without staining domestic or external OPEC+ politics. Such cuts have previously been accepted by the group, provided they aligned with the spirit of existing OPEC+ policies — but they have typically expressed the initiative of a single country, barring temporary Saudi-Kuwaiti-UAE reductions organized during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A coordinated gesture of Sunday’s scale effectively creates a second, unofficial agreement on top of the existing formal OPEC+ strategy — one that does not command formal commitments and can be more readily defended when individual oil ministries face pressures from their own governments or state oil companies to increase output and short-term revenues. Independent cuts also bypass the need for unanimous OPEC+ member approval and tentatively avoid external accusations of organized anti-consumer behavior.
But the gesture will not bridge the growing political rift between OPEC+ kingpin Saudi Arabia and the Biden administration, whose influence has been increasingly supplanted by China in the Middle East. In the past month, Beijing brokered a resumption of relations between arch-rivals Tehran and Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia also taking steps to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner.
“[The organized voluntary cuts] certainly would play into the narrative that the U.S. is losing its influence in the region to either influence the actions of core OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have traditionally been client states of the U.S.,” Andy Critchlow, EMEA head of news at S&P Global Platts, told CNBC.
“You can’t really look at this in isolation from the wider geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is seeing these core oil producers shift closer to China, shift much closer to Russia. You know, they like operating in this multipolar world, instead of being completely tied to U.S. dependency.”
Drive Electric Month kicks off this week with nearly 200 online and in-person events celebrating electric vehicles over the course of the next month. Events will be held for the next several weekends all across the US, plus a few in Canada and one in Guadalajara, Mexico.
Drive Electric Month is an annual event organized by Plug In America, the Electric Vehicle Association, EVHybridNoire, Drive Electric USA, and the Sierra Club. This is the event’s 15th year. It started in the US as National Drive Electric Week, but for the last few years, some events have been hosted in other countries as well, and now the event has expanded to cover most of the month of September, with a few events in October as well.
These events are an opportunity for prospective EV buyers to talk directly with EV owners about the experience of owning an electric car, and EV owners to network with each other and share tips. The dealership experience is not ideal for many EV shoppers, so unfiltered conversations with EV owners can be a great way to learn.
Each event is organized by local EV advocates, and they range in size from small parking lot meetups and local EV parades to large festivals with lots of booths from nearby car dealers and green businesses. Many events have live music, family-friendly activities, food trucks and the like.
Drive Electric Month has a map and list of events happening over the course of the month. Most events are in-person, but there are some webinar-style online events that you can attend to hear about various topics related to electric vehicles if you can’t get to any local evels. You can also search for events near you.
Be sure to click through to each individual event’s page to see what your local events will look like, what types of EVs might be in attendance, and register your interest.
Here’s a sample of some of the events happening over the course of the month:
- Oregon Electric Vehicle Association (OEVA) Test Drive & Information Expo in Portland, Oregon on September 13, 10am-4pm: Along with the standard test drives and car displays, this event will have a number of gas to electric conversions and antique EVs on display. It’s happening at the Daimler Truck North America headquarters, and some of the space will be used for seminars and presentations.
- Drive Electric Month Oahu in Aiea, Hawaii on September 13, 10am-2pm: The largest Hawaiian event is just outside of Honolulu, but there are events on four Hawaiian islands this year, with the others in Lihue on Kauai on Sep13, Hilo on the Big Island on Sep27, and Kahului on Maui on Oct11.
- Mesa EV Ride & Drive in Mesa, Arizona on September 20, 8am-12pm: A veteran group of organizers is bringing the EV experience to Mesa Community College on Saturday, Sept. 20. People can test drive a variety of models, talk to real owners and learn how and where to charge.
- Jimmy Buffett Son of a Sailor Festival in Mobile, Alabama on September 20, 2pm-7pm: There will be EV displays at this festival which celebrates Jimmy Buffett and Gulf Coast culture. The free festival features live music, local restaurants, parrot-head costume contests and EV drivers who can answer all your questions about driving electric.
- Electric Avenue at the Downtown Car Show in Grand Junction, Colorado on September 20, 9am-3pm: At the 23rd annual downtown car show, EVs will have their own block. Spectators will visit with drivers and can participate in a friendly competition for great prizes.
- Knoxville Drive Electric Festival in Knoxville, Tennessee on September 27, 10am-3pm: This event bills itself as the largest NDEM event in the Southeast. Along with EV displays and ride-and-drive, the live music stage will be powered by a Ford F-150 Lightning using its vehicle-to-load capabilities.
- Plug In America Ride and Drive at Space Coast Pride Parade & Festival in Melbourne, Florida on September 27, 12pm-4pm: Plug In America itself is hosting a ride-and-drive at the Space Coast Pride Parade & Festival on Saturday, Sept. 27. The public can test drive EVs from different manufacturers, engage with local EV owners and ask questions of the organization’s EV experts.
- National Drive Electric Month Waterloo 2025 in Waterloo, Ontario on October 4 from 11am-3pm: This will once again be the largest event in Canada. There are 5 other Canadian events scheduled (all at different times), in Winnipeg (Sep13, today!), Courtenay (Sep14), Saskatoon (Sep21), Toronto (Sep27), and Regina (Sep27).
- ELECTRATON DEM’25 in Guadalajara on October 4 from 9am-5pm: This is once again the sole event in Mexico, hosted at Oscar Casillas Karting Track, where there will also be a 4th annual race of student-built electric karts alongside the EV exhibition and test drives. (Here are some photos from last year’s event, including the student kart races and a Cybertruck on track).
Not all the events are large or hosted in big cities. There are also smaller events happening in town centers, church parking lots, and so on, often with just a handful of EV owners who are typically happy to stand around and have a frank discussion with members of the public about what it’s like to own an EV, or to network with other local EV owners.
Many of these events are happening in conjunction with Sun Day, a global day of action calling for a sun-powered planet on September 21 this year. These events will focus on how solar has become a drastically cheaper form of energy, and highlight ways that everyone can benefit from more solar and by electrifying whatever uses energy in our lives – whether that be vehicles, appliances, etc.
On that front, one notable Drive Electric/Sun Day event will be in Whittier, CA on Sep. 20th (not the 21st) from 11am-3pm, with test drives, an electrified home tour, and an eco scavenger hunt. It’s being organized by one of the original founders of National Drive Electric Week, so expect to see some EV oldtimers at this one.
If you’d like to attend any of these events, either to show your vehicle, to volunteer to help run the event, or just to show up and look around, you can check out the list of events, then go to each event’s page to find more information. Remember to click the “RSVP” or “Volunteer” links near the top to register your interest (or register at the links mentioned in the event description).
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Tesla has discontinued the cheapest version of the Cybertruck just a few months after launching it.
No one wanted the gutted electric truck.
There’s no hiding it. The Cybertruck is a commercial flop.
Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the vehicle. It planned for a production capacity of up to 250,000 units per year, and CEO Elon Musk even said that he believes it could increase to 500,000 units per year.
Meanwhile, Tesla is currently selling the Cybertruck at a rate of roughly 20,000 units per year.
The primary reason for the significantly lower-than-anticipated sales is that Tesla launched the Cybertruck at a higher price and with worse specifications than initially announced.
To address this, Tesla introduced a more affordable version of the electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck rear-wheel-drive, in April 2025.
Instead of starting at $80,000, like the Cybertruck AWD, the Cybertruck RWD started at $70,000.
However, it was an even worse deal because Tesla had essentially stripped the vehicle of its most valuable features, including active air suspension, a motorized tonneau cover, and even the power outlets in the bed, in addition to removing a motor.
Less than 5 months after launching the new vehicle, Tesla has discontinued the Cybertruck RWD.
The automaker updated the Cybertruck’s online configurator to remove the option:
Tesla hasn’t replaced the variant with a new one. It just stopped taking orders.
Electrek’s Take
I don’t know of anyone who ordered this. It was such a bad deal. There’s already only a small pool of potential Cybertruck buyers, but none of them want to lose all those essential features for $10,000.
Where does the Cybertruck go from there? Does Tesla keep the vehicle program at just ~20,000 units per year?
I think they may try to do an upgrade next year to bring it closer to what they originally promised and see if there’s more demand as a result.
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks to members of the media as he arrives at a lodge for the Allen & Co. Sun Valley Conference on July 8, 2025 in Sun Valley, Idaho.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oracle‘s historic stock surge this week marked the latest chapter in the story of a single private company that’s dominated the tech landscape for almost three years: OpenAI.
In Oracle’s blowout earnings report, OpenAI was a key catalyst due to a massive amount of money the artificial intelligence startup expects to spend on cloud computing technology in the coming years.
It’s becoming a familiar theme.
A week earlier, Broadcom shares popped almost 10% after the chipmaker and software vendor said it forged a $10 billion deal to build custom processors for a customer that analysts said was OpenAI.
Among tech’s megacaps, Microsoft has the closest link to OpenAI, having invested more than $13 billion in the company and serving as its key cloud partner for six years. Nvidia’s march to becoming the world’s most valuable company is intimately tied to OpenAI, as its graphics processing units (GPUs) sit at the heart of large language model development and are essential for running big AI workloads.
Those four companies alone — Oracle, Broadcom, Microsoft and Nvidia — have seen their combined market caps swell by over $4.5 trillion since OpenAI burst into public view with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. And those gains are a big reason why the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have sustained sharp rallies, with both benchmarks closing at a record on Friday.
OpenAI’s outsized influence has some market experts understandably concerned. It remains a cash-burning startup that’s governed by a nonprofit parent.
The company’s $500 billion valuation is supported by a small number of investors betting that OpenAI will prevail in the face of hefty competition from the likes of Meta and Google as well as other highly-valued newcomers like Anthropic and any number of players out of China.
“While we love ChatGPT, OpenAI is still a not for profit limited in its ability to raise capital,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, in an interview with CNBC.
Luria, who recommends holding Oracle shares, dug into the company’s numbers as the stock was in the midst of a 36% jump on Wednesday, its biggest gain since 1992.
In its quarterly earnings report late Tuesday, Oracle said it signed four multibillion-dollar contracts with three different customers during the period. One of those was with OpenAI, which said previously that it agreed to develop 4.5 gigawatts of U.S. data center capacity with Oracle.
Investors knew, based on a filing with the SEC in June, that Oracle signed a $30 billion cloud contract with an unnamed company that’s set to begin in two years. CNBC confirmed a Wall Street Journal report from Wednesday that OpenAI has agreed to spend $300 billion in computing power over about five years, starting in 2027.
In the two trading days after its historic pop, Oracle’s stock retreated, dropping more than 6% on Thursday and another 5% on Friday, as other investors began sharing Luria’s concerns.
The new revelations about OpenAI’s massive cloud commitment provided a clearer sense of Oracle’s expanding backlog. Oracle said its performance obligations, a measure of contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized, surged 359% from a year earlier to to $455 billion.
Luria said the concentration of Oracle’s backlog with a single customer “significantly reduces” enthusiasm, particularly if “more than 90% came from OpenAI.”
Oracle didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Altman’s open wallet
OpenAI has made big commitments to several other cloud providers, including CoreWeave and Google, and reportedly plans to put $19 billion toward Stargate, a project President Donald Trump announced in January to bolster AI infrastructure investments in the U.S. Stargate is a joint venture between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, which is separately leading a planned $40 billion investment in OpenAI.
Luria said the takeaway is that “Sam Altman has the gumption to sign very large checks without needing to worry about whether those can ever be cashed.”
OpenAI declined to comment.
While OpenAI will be losing money for the foreseeable future, the company is expecting revenue growth to continue at a breakneck pace. After hitting $10 billion in annual recurring revenue in June, OpenAI is on pace for that number to reach $125 billion by 2029, CNBC confirmed.
And on Thursday, OpenAI got a step closer to formalizing its transition to a for-profit entity. The company said its nonprofit parent will continue to have oversight over the business and will own an equity stake of more than $100 billion as the commercial entity becomes a public benefit corporation.
OpenAI needs the restructuring to take place by year-end in order to secure the entirety of the $40 billion from its latest financing round.
For Oracle, the massive increase in OpenAI spending has landed the company within shouting distance of the trillion-dollar club, which currently includes eight tech peers. Oracle’s market cap climbed to about $930 billion on Wednesday before retreating to $830 billion to close the week.
Byron Deeter, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, told CNBC’s “Money Movers” that he’s still skeptical of Oracle’s prospects in AI. The company has spent years trying to play catchup in cloud infrastructure, where it trails Amazon, Microsoft and Google.
Deeter said Oracle remains a “B-level hyperscaler” without meaningful positions in AI software or chips.
“Two days ago, we all thought Oracle was essentially nowhere in AI,” Deeter said, following the earnings report. “They announce this mega-deal, people think they’re the next great hyperscaler – and I don’t buy that part.”
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