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All eyes will be on the March jobs report when it comes out Friday morning amid signs the once rock solid labor market is finally beginning to crack in the face of higher interest rates.
The Labor Department's high-stakes payroll report is projected to show that hiring increased by 239,000 last month and that the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, according to a median estimate by Refinitiv economists.
That would mark a drop from the 311,000 gain in February and would be the weakest monthly job growth since December 2020.
Construction workers on a job site March 10, 2023, in Miami, Fla. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images / Getty Images)
While monthly jobs data is always important, the Federal Reserve is closely watching this particular report for evidence that the labor market is finally softening after months of strong job gains as policymakers try to wrestle inflation under control. The consumer price index has cooled slightly from a peak of 9.1% in June, but it remains about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average.
JOB CUTS SURGED 15% IN MARCH, AND LARGE-SCALE LAYOFFS 'WILL LIKELY CONTINUE:' REPORT
"Here we go again. The upcoming employment report will be the most important ever, just like the previous dozen or so," said Dan North, senior economist at trade credit insurer Allianz Trade North America. "Will it show a cooling labor market, giving the Fed room to breathe, or will it come out strong, putting [a 25 basis point interest rate hike] back on the table in May?"
A lower-than-expected figure on Friday could be a welcoming sign for the U.S. central bank, which has already approved nine straight interest rate hikes and opened the door to a 10th increase at its May meeting.
ARE TECH LAYOFFS THE CANARY IN THE US JOBS MARKET?
The labor market has remained historically tight over the past year, but there are signs of a slowdown. A separate report released Wednesday showed there were about 9.9 million job openings in February, the first time since May 2021 that the number of available jobs dipped below 10 million.
However, job openings remain historically high. Before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, the highest on record was 7.6 million. There are still roughly 1.7 jobs per unemployed American.
A hiring sign is shown during a job fair at a Schneider Electric manufacturing facility in Hopkins, S.C., Jan. 18, 2023. (Micah Green/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
There has also been a wave of notable layoffs over the past few months, and the list grows longer by the day. Amazon, Apple, Meta, Lyft, Facebook, Google, IBM and Twitter are among the companies letting workers go.
"The data in hand right now suggest the job market lost momentum since last fall," said Bill Adams, chief economist for Texas-based Comerica Bank. "If inflation reports for March come in softer than expected, or there is another batch of negative economic headlines between now and the decision, it would likely tip the balance toward a hold in May. But inflation is still the Fed’s foremost concern, so a May hike can’t be ruled out."
JOBLESS CLAIMS COME IN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AHEAD OF MARCH JOBS REPORT
Job losses could soon bleed into the broader labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that policymakers anticipate job growth will slow and unemployment could climb as the Fed raises interest rates higher, but he has argued that an alternative where prices soar unchecked is worse.
Recruiters speak with job seekers during a job fair in Miami Dec. 16, 2021. (Eva Marie Uzcategu /Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
For many economists, the possibility of unemployment rising has become a question of when not if.
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The central bank previously projected the jobless rate will march substantially higher to 4.6% and remain elevated in 2024 and 2025 as steeper rates continue to take their toll by pushing up borrowing costs. That could amount to more than 1 million job losses.
Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending.
An international manhunt is under way for the husband of a murdered woman, whose body was found in the boot of a car.
The body of Harshita Brella was found in east London on Thursday, tens of miles away from her home in Corby.
On Sunday, Northamptonshire Police said they were looking for Pankaj Lamba – who they believe has left the country.
Sky News understands she had been under the protection of a court order designed for victims of domestic abuse.
“Our inquiries lead us to suspect that Harshita was murdered in Northamptonshire earlier this month by her husband Pankaj Lamba,” said chief inspector Paul Cash.
“We suspect Lamba transported Harshita’s body from Northamptonshire to Ilford by car.”
“Fast track” enquires were made after the force was contacted on Wednesday by someone concerned about Ms Brella’s welfare. After she failed to answer the door at her home in Skegness Walk, Corby, a missing person investigation was launched.
Her body was found inside the boot of a vehicle in Brisbane Road in the Ilford in the early hours of Thursday morning.
A post mortem – conducted at Leicester Royal Infirmary on Friday – established she had been murdered.
More than 60 detectives are working on the case, with lines of enquiry including going house to house and property searches, as well as looking at CCTV and ANPR.
“We are of course continuing to appeal for any information that will help us piece together exactly what happened as we work to get justice for Harshita,” said chief inspector Cash.
“I urge anyone listening to or reading this statement, that if you saw anything suspicious in the past week or have any information, no matter how small, please contact us. We would always rather receive well-meaning information that turns out to be nothing as opposed to not receiving it all.”
Force referred to police watchdog
On Saturday, Northamptonshire Police said it had made a mandatory referral to the Independent Office for Police Conduct due to previous contact between the force and the victim.
Northamptonshire Police previously said officers had been conducting investigations at three locations: Skegness Walk and Sturton Walk in Corby and Brisbane Road, Ilford, where Ms Brella’s body was found.
East Midlands Special Operations Major Crime Unit (EMSOU) and Northamptonshire Police said they were working “around the clock to establish the circumstances behind her death, including the exact location and timeframe in which it took place”.
Climate change, the crisis in the Middle East, the continuing war in Ukraine, combating global poverty.
All of these are critical issues for Britain and beyond; all of them up for discussions at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro this week, and all of them very much in limbo as the world awaits the arrival of president-elect Donald Trump to the White House.
Because while US President Joe Biden used Nato, the G7 and the G20, as forums to try to find consensus on some of the most pressing issues facing the West, his successor is likely to take a rather different approach. And that begs the question going into Rio 2024 about what can really be achieved in Mr Biden’s final act before the new show rolls into town.
On the flight over to Rio de Janeiro, our prime minister acted as a leader all too aware of it as he implored fellow leaders to “shore up support for Ukraine” even as the consensus around standing united against Vladimir Putin appears to be fracturing and the Russian president looks emboldened.
“We need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that’s top of my agenda for the G20,” he told us in the huddle on the plane. “There’s got to be full support for as long as it takes.”
But the election of Mr Trump to the White House is already shifting that narrative, with the incoming president clear he’s going to end the war. His new secretary of state previously voted against pouring more military aid into the embattled country.
Mr Trump has yet to say how he intends to end this war, but allies are already blinking. In recent days, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken with Mr Putin for the first time in two years to the dismay of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who described the call as “opening Pandora’s Box”.
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Ukraine anger over Putin-Scholz call
Sir Keir for his part says he has “no plans’ to speak to Putin as the 1,000th day of this conflict comes into view. But as unity amongst allies in isolating Mr Putin appears to be fracturing, the Russian leader is emboldened: on Saturday night Moscow launched one of the largest air attacks on Ukraine yet.
All of this is a reminder of the massive implications, be it on trade or global conflicts, that a Trump White House will have, and the world will be watching to see how much ‘Trump proofing’ allies look to embark upon in the coming days in Rio, be that trying to strike up economic ties with countries such as China or offering more practical help for Ukraine.
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Both Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron want to use this summit to persuade Mr Biden to allow Mr Zelenskyy to fire Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russian territory, having failed to win this argument with the president during their meeting at the White House in mid-September. Starmer has previously said it should be up to Ukraine how it uses weapons supplied by allies, as long as it remains within international law and for the purposes of defence.
“I am going to make shoring up support for Ukraine top of my agenda as we go into the G20,” said Sir Keir when asked about pressing for the use of such weaponry.
“I think it’s important we double down and give Ukraine the support that it needs for as long as it needs it. Obviously, I’m not going to get into discussing capabilities. You wouldn’t expect me to do that.”
But even as allies try to persuade the outgoing president on one issue where consensus is breaking down, the prospect of the newcomer is creating other waves on climate change and taxation too. Argentine President Javier Milei, a close ally of Trump, is threatening to block a joint communique set to be endorsed by G20 leaders over opposition to the taxation of the super-rich, while consensus on climate finance is also struggling to find common ground, according to the Financial Times.
Where the prime minister has found common ground with Mr Trump is on their respective domestic priorities: economic growth and border control.
So you will be hearing a lot from the prime minister over the next couple of days about tie-ups and talks with big economic partners – be that China, Brazil or Indonesia – as Starmer pursues his growth agenda, and tackling small boats, with the government drawing up plans for a series of “Italian-style” deals with several countries in an attempt to stop 1000s of illegal migrants from making the journey to the UK.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has struck financial deals with Tunisia and Libya to get them to do more to stop small-boat crossings, with some success and now the UK is in talks with Kurdistan, semi-autonomous region in Iraq, Turkey and Vietnam over “cooperation and security deals” which No 10 hope to sign next year.
The prime minister refused on Sunday to comment on specific deals as he stressed that tackling the small boats crisis would come from a combination of going after the smuggling gangs, trying to “stop people leaving in the first place” and returning illegal migrants where possible.
“I don’t think this is an area where we should just do one thing. We have got to do everything that we can,” he said, stressing that the government had returned 9,400 people since coming into office.
But with the British economy’s rebound from recession slowing down sharply in the third quarter of the year, and small boat crossings already at a record 32,947, the Prime Minister has a hugely difficult task.
Add the incoming Trump presidency into the mix and his challenges are likely to be greater still when it comes to crucial issues from Ukraine to climate change, and global trade. But what Trump has given him at least is greater clarity on what he needs to do to try to buck the political headwinds from the US to the continent, and win another term as a centre left incumbent.
Speaking about the recreation, she said: “We’ve got leading experts in their fields who have been working on this for 10 years and so everything has been meticulously researched, meticulously evidenced, so you are seeing the most accurate portrayal of Richard III”.
A team based at Face Lab at Liverpool John Moores University created the avatar based on the reconstruction of Richard III’s head with the help of a craniofacial expert.
His voice has been created by Professor David Crystal, a leading linguist in 15th-century pronunciation. He admitted that it’s impossible to know exactly how he spoke, but this is as close as they will get.
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The king was born in Northampton but spent a lot of his life in Yorkshire. His parents were also from the north of England.
Vocal coach Yvonne Morley-Chisholm spent a decade researching how the monarch would have sounded. She worked with the actor Thomas Dennis who was chosen as his body and face were such a a good physical match.
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Speaking to Sky News, she said people will be shocked at how different he sounded compared with traditional portrayals of the king on stage and screen.
The coach and actor also examined the king’s letters and diary so that “as you pronounced a word that’s how you would write it”.
History fans at the unveiling were delighted with the accent, with one telling Sky News: “Northerners are known to be happy, positive, all those lovely qualities.”
Born in Northampton but a northerner through and through, technology has brought the king’s speech back to life