DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The wealthy Arab Gulf states are in a better position than many other regions of the world to manage the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, economists and regional investors say. But a shaky outlook for the price of oil could put some countries’ budgets and spending projects at risk.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. Together, they comprise around $3.2 trillion in sovereign financial assets, accounting for 33% of the total sovereign assets worldwide, according to GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi. 

The GCC also holds approximately 32.6% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves, according to the Statistical Center of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

That makes it both an asset for the Trump administration as well as vulnerable to its policies, as Trump has long pushed for OPEC, the oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia, to pump more oil to help lower oil prices and offset inflation in the U.S. 

A lower oil price, however, can significantly impact the budget deficits and spending plans for those countries, whose economies — despite diversification efforts — still rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues.  

Ben Powell, BlackRock’s chief investment strategist for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, who is based in Abu Dhabi, said the region’s warm relations with Trump strengthens its hand when it comes to potential tariff negotiations. Some GCC countries have also expanded their role in global diplomacy. One example is Riyadh’s hosting of peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which has made it ever more important to Washington.  

“I do think the Middle East, with the deep relationship with the U.S. that they have, should come out okay,” Powell told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Monday. 

“I think we’re all going to be swept into the maelstrom over the next short period of time. That’s inevitable. But the Middle East, with the balance sheet strength that they have, with the energy support that they still have, providing funding on a near ongoing basis … for me, the Middle East — maybe not today, but over time — should be a relative winner within that mix” when it comes to emerging markets, Powell said.

In considering what the firsthand impact of tariffs might be, Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, noted that the U.S. is not a major export market for the Gulf.

“The GCC should be in a relatively favourable position to withstand headwinds, especially the UAE,” she wrote in a report for the bank on Friday. 

While the region faces the blanket 10% universal tariff as well as previously imposed tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum — products that the UAE and Bahrain both export — “we expect the direct impact to be relatively contained, as the US is not a key destination for Gulf exports, averaging just c.3.7% of the GCC’s total exports in 2024,” she said.

Global benchmark Brent crude was trading at $61.44 per barrel on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. in London, down nearly 17% year-to-date. Additional pressure was put on the price after OPEC+, the oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, made a surprise decision to accelerate planned crude production hikes, further bolstering global supply. 

Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its oil price forecast for 2026 to $58 for Brent and $55 for U.S. benchmark WTI crude. That’s a significant move lower from its forecast just last Friday of $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI in 2026.

“A weaker global demand and greater supply adds downside risk to our Brent forecast for 2025, though we wait for more market clarity before making any changes,” ADCB’s Malik told CNBC on Monday. OPEC+ is meant to increase oil production levels again in May, and she predicts the group will pause that plan if crude prices stay where they are or fall further. 

“Our greatest concern would be a sharp and sustained oil price fall, which would require a reassessment of spending plans – government and off budget – including capex, while also potentially affecting banking sector liquidity and wider confidence,” Malik warned.

The United Nations shipping agency is on the cusp of introducing binding regulations to phase out fossil fuel use in global shipping — with the world’s first-ever global emissions levy on the table.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will this week hold talks at its London headquarters to hammer out measures to reduce the climate impact of international shipping, which accounts for around 3% of global carbon emissions.

Some of the measures on the table include a global marine fuel standard and an economic element, such as a long-debated carbon levy or a carbon credit scheme.

If implemented, a robust pricing mechanism in the shipping sector would likely be considered one of the climate deals of the decade.

An ambitious carbon tax is far from a foregone conclusion, however, with observers citing concerns over sweeping U.S. tariffs, a brewing global trade war and reluctance from members firmly opposed to any kind of levy structure.

Sara Edmonson, head of global advocacy at Australian mining giant Fortescue, described the talks as “absolutely historic,” particularly given the potential for a landmark carbon levy.

“I think it would be an absolute game-changer. No other industry on a global level has made a commitment of this size and I would argue most countries haven’t made a commitment of this size,” Edmondson told CNBC via telephone.

She added, however, that “the jury is still very much out” when it comes to a global carbon price.

“There are also a lot of discussions around levy-like structures because obviously the word levy in very polarized countries like the U.S., like Australia and even in China, can be very challenging. But I think there are really good discussions around levy-like structures that would ultimately have an equivalent effect,” Edmondson said.

The IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) is scheduled to conclude talks on Friday.

The UNFCCC refers to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a multilateral treaty that has provided the basis for international climate negotiations.

If adopted, it would be “the first industry-wide measure adopted by a multilateral UN organisation with much more teeth than we could get in the UNFCCC process,” Regenvanu said.

Delegates at the IMO agreed in 2023 to target net-zero sector emissions “by or around” 2050 and set a provision to finalize a basket of mid-term carbon reduction measures in 2025.

The international shipping sector, which is responsible for the carriage of around 90% of global trade, is regarded as one of the hardest industries to decarbonize given the vast amounts of fossil fuels the ships burn each year.

Angie Farrag-Thibault, vice president of global transport at the Environmental Defense Fund, an environmental group, said a successful outcome at the IMO would be an ambitious global fuel standard and a “decisive” economic measure to ensure shipping pollution is significantly reduced.

“These measures, which should include a fair disbursement mechanism that uses existing climate finance structures, will encourage ship owners to cut fossil fuel use and adopt zero and near-zero fuels and technologies, while supporting climate-vulnerable regions at the speed and scale that is needed,” Farragh-Thibault said.