New EPA rules will upend industry as automakers’ EV plans are too low
The US Environmental Protection Agency is set to announce sweeping new EPA rules on Wednesday intended to bring EV market share to ~60% in the US by 2030 and 67% by 2032. The rules are a big step forward for electrification, and represent an improvement from President Biden’s previous commitment of 50% electric by 2030. But it’s also far ahead of what many automakers are planning, leaving millions of EV sales up for grabs come 2030.
While the new rules have not yet been finalized (or even formally announced), the expectation based on sources within the EPA is that it will set emissions levels low enough that two thirds of vehicles would need to be electric by 2032.
The rules would bring federal guidelines close to California’s new guidelines, though it looks like this won’t quite harmonize them. California’s “Advanced Clean Cars II” (ACC2) regulation aims for 68% EV by 2030 and 82% by 2032, significantly more than the rumored EPA rule.
The California rule also bans sales of combustion-only cars in 2035, though EPA’s rules don’t seem to look that far into the future yet. California deliberately set its goals a little lower than what the state itself could achieve, in the hopes to bring other “section 177” states, and perhaps even the federal government, onboard. It wanted these rules to be “a floor, not a ceiling.”
Aligning minimum requirements would be important, as automakers have long stated a desire for a unified set of guidelines across the country. Automakers had this wish granted in 2012 when President Obama (with then-VP Biden) and the state of California agreed on emissions rules. But then they couldn’t help themselves and lobbied the EPA to fracture the rules, and later begged for a reversal of the fractured rules they lobbied for.
We’ll have to see what the proposed rules look like when they come out on Wednesday, but from what we’ve seen so far, it looks like the rules won’t quite align. Which begs the question: could the auto lobby even ask EPA to strengthen these rules, to align them with California, in keeping with their previously-stated desires for a unified regulatory scheme? It would be consistent with their stated goals anyway… but perhaps don’t hold your breath (unless a high-emitting gas car is going by, then you probably should hold your breath, at least until the smog clears).
All that said, the auto industry’s biggest lobbying organization did most recently support the government’s 2023-2026 emissions standards, so let us hope that they are turning a new leaf.
The proposed rules also lag behind public opinion. According to a recent poll, a majority of US voters support a requirement that 100% of new cars sold be electric starting 2030. The idea was “strongly” or “somewhat” supported by 55% of respondents, and opposed by just 35%. This is one reason we ask “why not sooner?” about a 2035 target for 100% electric car sales.
Automakers’ current 2030 commitments are too low
Until we see these new EPA rules, we can compare each automaker’s current stated production plans against what the EPA seems to be proposing, and see how things might shake out in the next decade based on those commitments. For the final column, we’ve multiplied current annual US sales by the company’s stated 2030 EV sales percentage (US where possible, global for companies that haven’t announced a US-specific goal). Some brands will sell more or less cars by then, and the market may grow or shrink as a whole, but we should be able to learn some things with rough math:
| Automaker | 2030 EV % | 2022 overall sales (rounded) |
2030 EV sales (est.) |
| GM | 40-50% | 2.2m | 880k-1.1m |
| Toyota | <50% (or 15%?), ~1/3 (global) | 2m | <1m (300k?) |
| Ford | 40-50% | 1.8m | 720-900k |
| Stellantis | 40-50% | 1.5m | 600-750k |
| Honda | 40-50% | 975k | 390-487k |
| Nissan | 40% “electrified” | 815k | 326k |
| Hyundai | 50% | 724k | 362k |
| Kia | 37% (global) | 654k | 241k |
| Subaru | 40% (global) | 556k | 222k |
| VW | 50% (80% global) | 498k | 249k |
| BMW | >50% (“well ahead” of 2030) | 361k | >180k |
| Daimler | 100% (Mercedes, Smart) | 342k | 342k |
| Mazda | 25-40% | 294k | 73-117k |
| Volvo | 100% | 101k | 101k |
| Jaguar Land Rover | 100% (2025) | 69k | 69k |
| Subtotal of non-EV manufacturers | (44%, averaged/ weighted) | 12.8m | ~5.7m (midpoint) |
| EV brands (Tesla, Rivian, Polestar, Lucid, etc) |
100% | ~550k | the rest |
| US total | 54-60% | 13.7m | 7.4-8.2 million |
Several smaller companies, or sub-brands of the above companies, have targeted 100% electric by 2030. Alfa Romeo, Lotus, Bentley, Cadillac, Mini, and Rolls-Royce have all committed to eliminating combustion by 2030.
From the rough math in this table, we can see a few things:
- Only three automakers, Daimler, Jaguar and Volvo, have planned to exceed the EPA’s rumored new goals.
- BMW is in the same ballpark with its >50% commitment, and a few other brands aren’t lagging too far behind with their 50% commitments.
- Kia makes good EVs. How is it in the second or third worst place on this table?
- Automakers’ current 2030 commitments only account for about 44% EV sales, averaged/weighted for their current sizes. This means overall EV commitments would need to increase by about a third to meet the Biden admin’s reported 60% goal.
But here’s what I would consider the most important takeaway: there is a gap of 1.7-2.5 million cars just waiting to be filled. Those are cars that need to be electric in order to meet the EPA’s rumored guidelines, and which automakers are currently not planning to make.
The auto industry is up for grabs
So, someone is going to have to build those cars. Who’s it gonna be?
A full car development cycle takes about 7 years. So if automakers want to get ready for these new EPA rules, they need to start today, if they haven’t already.
Some automakers may adopt a wait-and-see attitude, or may hope for legal challenges or an eventual softening or reversal of the regulation. But those automakers will be ceding time and leadership to a number of companies who would be happy to gobble up those millions of vehicle sales.
Those companies are listed at the end of the table: the EV brands. The likes of Tesla, Rivian, Polestar, and Lucid may not all have the capacity yet, but they’re eyeing this blue ocean, this sea of vehicles that have to be sold but which nobody seems to want to sell, and actively positioning themselves to grab as many of those free sales as possible. They’re not just starting their 7-year development cycles now, they already started them years ago. They won’t just be ready in 2030, they’ll be on the move well before then.
And even BYD and NIO, or other Chinese brands, may make inroads into the US market for the first time ever due to this not-sufficiently-tapped demand. Americans are wary of Chinese cars, but they were wary of Japanese cars, too, until a crisis in the 70s forced a realignment of the auto industry. And it certainly seems like a realignment is due to happen now.
But they won’t just grab those free vehicles, they’ll also eat into the incumbent automakers’ sales. We’ve seen this happen in every segment that Tesla goes into – incumbent automakers’ ICE sales go down in proportion to Tesla’s sales going up.
So unless automakers want that to happen, they better ratchet up their 2030 goals. And they better do it right now, not in a few years while they wait to see if these rules get challenged. We should see a lot of announcements in the coming weeks, if automakers know what’s good for them.
Are the new EPA rules achievable?
EV sales have grown quite rapidly for the last decade. In 2013, the first year that Tesla Model S sales started in earnest and when Nissan Leaf sales rose sharply, 47k EVs were sold in the US. In 2022, 762k EVs were sold. Using just these two data points, that’s a compound annual growth rate of 36%.
In 2022, US EV market share was 5.8%. To reach 60% by 2030, that means we need to grow EV sales at a compound annual growth rate of 34% between now and then – a similar growth rate to what we’ve already seen. So these EPA numbers are attainable, if we continue efforts at this rate.
Of course this will take a lot of investment, supply chain work, and deployment of chargers and other associated laws and regulations even down to the local level in order to prepare the country for the shift to electric cars. But many of those investments are in the process of being made by the Biden administration, through allocation of funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, and states and cities have slowly been removing roadblocks to charger installation as well (e.g. through Right to Charge).
The EPA move isn’t being made in a vacuum, and while it’s a step further than the early ambitions of the administration, work has been done and the market has evolved since that early executive order. With EV demand through the roof and so many new investments into EV production, it looks like the administration seems confident that these targets are achievable.
Besides, these targets are necessary. The IEA says that all new passenger car sales need to be electric, globally, by 2035, if we’re to avoid the worst effects of climate change. So there’s really no question over whether we should do this, or whether we can. We have to, so we better figure out a way to do it, because this is not something we have a choice over.
And while many automakers will complain about how hard it is, perhaps a change in perspective is warranted: electric cars are coming, and automakers who don’t shape up will be caught with their pants down, even moreso than they already have been. A swift kick in the rear by regulators might just force them into action they never would have taken on their own.
And as customer desires continue to shift more towards better, cleaner vehicles and sales of worse, dirty vehicles dry up, laggard automakers will find themselves in a better situation than if they had just sat there twiddling their thumbs, hoping for it all to pass.
Besides, we’ve seen EV goals get exceeded elsewhere. Norway is handily meeting even the most ambitious goals in the world, The UK has pushed forward its timeline (twice), and in China some gas cars are already becoming valueless. There are plenty of examples of EV adoption happening faster than expected. So maybe a can-do attitude would behoove us, here in America… where we used to value that sort of thing.
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Duracell, the iconic US battery brand that started in the 1920s, is crossing the Atlantic to launch its first-ever EV fast charging network, Duracell E-Charge, in the UK.
Sales of gas and diesel cars will end by 2030 in the UK, which is driving EV sales and charging infrastructure growth. With more than £200 million ($266 million) in planned investment over the next decade, Duracell E-Charge is getting on the bandwagon with an aim to improve the fast charging experience.
Duracell has licensed its new network to Elektra Charge, a charge point operator set up to run the Duracell E-Charge network. The EV Network (EVN), one of the UK’s top charging infrastructure developers, will fund and build the charging hubs.
“The need for faster, more reliable charging to keep pace with EV adoption is clear,” said Reza Shaybani, CEO of The EV Network. “Duracell E-Charge is a direct response to that challenge.”
Duracell’s EV fast charging network will feature 400 kW ultra-fast chargers where drivers can pay via app, contactless, or plug-and-go. Each site will have intuitive interfaces, clear signage, and 24/7 support.
The first six Duracell E-Charge sites will come online in 2025. The Sunday Times reported that Duracell plans to grow its charging network to at least 100 charging stations with at least 500 charging points by 2030. The hubs will be strategically located along major motorways, near retail and hospitality venues, and at key city gateways.
“Charging your car should be as simple as changing the batteries in your remote,” said Mark Bloxham, managing director of Duracell E-Charge. “Plug. Play. Go.”
Electrek’s Take
I asked Duracell whether it had plans to launch Duracell E-Charge in the US, and I’ll update this story if I hear back. But if you want to know why this American legacy company launched its first DC fast charging network in the UK instead of the US, it’s a simple answer. Business-friendly, stable government policy.
Read more: InstaVolt is using GPS tracking to catch thieves stealing its EV charging cables
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Ford is cutting prices on the electric pickup by up to $4,000 to offset the loss of the federal EV tax credit. The 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning now offers more driving range at a lower price.
2026 Ford F-150 Lightning prices and range by trim
After the Tesla Cybertruck took the title as America’s best-selling electric pickup last year, the Ford F-150 Lightning is back on top in 2025.
Ford sold over 10,000 Lightnings in the third quarter, nearly double the roughly 5,400 Tesla Cybertrucks sold. Through September, Ford has sold over 23,000 electric pickups. According to Cox Automotive, Tesla has only sold 16,097 Cybertrucks this year, 38% fewer than it did during the same period in 2024.
After the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired at the end of September, many automakers, including Ford, are bracing for less demand.
To keep the momentum going, Ford is reducing prices for the 2026 F-150 Lightning by up to $4,000. Company spokesperson Martin Günsberg confirmed with Electrek that Ford is cutting prices on the flash trim by $4,000 and the Lariat by $2,000.
Ford introduced a new base STX model that replaces the XLT for 2026. The 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning STX starts at $63,345, the same as the 2025 STX, but it delivers an extra 50 miles of driving range.
A 123 kW extended range battery powers the STX, providing an EPA estimated 290 miles of range. In comparison, the XLT delivered 240 miles of range from a 98 kWh battery.
Ford also raided the F-150 parts bin to add a few off-road goodies like running boards from the Tremor, new wheels, and more.
The 2026 F-150 Lightning Flash will start at $65,995, down from $69,995. Meanwhile, the 2026 Lariat and Platinum trims will be priced from $74,995 and $84,995.
| Ford F-150 Lightning trim | 2025 Starting Price | 2026 Starting Price | Range (EPA-est miles) |
| XLT | $63,345 | N/A | 240 |
| STX | N/A | $63,345 | 290 |
| Flash | $69,995 | $65,995 | 320 |
| Lariat | $76,995 | $74,995 | 320 |
| Platinum | $84,995 | $84,995 | 300 |
Although Ford decided not to move forward with plans for a program to extend the $7,500 EV tax credit, the company is still offering significant incentives to compensate for the loss of it.
The 2025 Ford F-150 Lighting STX is eligible for up to $11,500 in savings in California and other ZEV states. Ford is offering a $9,000 lease cash bonus and an additional $2,000 Ford Power Promise cash bonus. Alternatively, Ford is offering 0% APR financing for 72 months plus an extra $2,000 Power Promise bonus nationwide.
With the 2026 model arriving, Ford is offering a few deals on current Lightning models that are hard to pass up. The 2025 F-150 Lightning XLT is currently listed for lease as low as $279 per month in California. You can use our link to find offers on the Ford F-150 Lightning near you (trusted affiliate link).
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Environment
Anker SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 power station and bundles 50% off early-bird savings, Jackery HomePower 3600 Plus at new low, more
This week’s Green Deals are kicking off with a new release, as Anker launches its SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 Portable Power Station 50% off early-bird savings that will score the power station (as well as bundle options) starting from $749 on October 28. Right behind it, as part of Jackery’s extended Prime Day Sale (lasting only a few more days), you can find the brand’s latest HomePower 3600 Plus Portable Power Station and bundles at new low prices starting from $1,519, which also comes with a FREE refurbished Explorer 300 Plus station ($299 value). We also have a selection of 1.3 to 18-gallon Camplux electric water heater discounts, BougeRV’s 2-bike carrier for SUVs and trucks back at its lowest price, and many extended/ongoing Prime Day Sales waiting for you below – with many more available to browse in our Post-Prime Day Green Deals hub here, like Lectric’s Better-Than-Prime e-bike Sale that is ending tonight.
Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.
Anker kicks off 50% early-bird discounts on new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 power station starting from $749
Anker has launched its early-bird savings promotion on its upcoming SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 Portable Power Station which is offering up to 50% off the station and/or its bundle until its official launch on October 28. Subscribing on the page here before then gives you an emailed code to score this new power station at $749 shipped once it goes live on launch day, as well as its bundle options for either an expansion battery or a 400W solar panel at up to $1,249 off. This all-new second-generation model will carry a full $1,499 MSRP outside of sales, while the 400W solar bundle will go for $2,398 and the expansion battery bundle will go for $2,498 – and jumping on these savings now scores you 50% off all the options! Head below to get a rundown on what to expect, and be sure to make your decisions before this juicy deal ends.
Following the same trend as the C1000 Gen 2 model, the brand’s new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 power station comes as a redesigned update to the brand’s popular F2000 legacy unit, with more power output and faster recharging times, all packed into a lighter and more compact unit. It starts with the same 2,048Wh LiFePO4 battery capacity that can expand up to 4,096Wh with the extra battery bundle. It boasts 11 output ports (five ACs, one TT-30R RV port, three USB-Cs, one USB-A, and a car port) through which it can produce up to 2,400W of steady power and surge as high as 4,000W (beating the F2000 by 400W).
You’ll have six main ways to recharge the battery on the new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2, including an AC outlet, a gas generator, solar panels, AC and solar together for its fastest speeds (45 mins to 80%, 58 mins to 100%), your car’s auxiliary port, or by utilizing the brand’s new alternator charger that will launch next month. Some other notable features include its 9W idle power draw, which is quite impressive, as well as the brand’s claim that it can run an 190W refrigerator for up to 32 hours, and more.
Jackery’s latest HomePower 3600 Plus power station and bundles at new lows from $1,519 + FREE gifts
Jackery has changed up its Prime Day Sale into the renamed Fall into Power Sale for the last three days of the event, with continued low prices across many units, as well as two tiers of bonus savings and select free gifts. Among the lineup, you’ll find Jackery’s latest HomePower 3600 Plus Portable Power Station starting from $1,519.05 shipped, after using the code OFFER5 at checkout for an additional 5% savings, and you’ll even be getting a FREE refurbished Explorer 300 Plus power station (valued at $299). Last month, we saw it launch with early-bird savings from its $2,799 MSRP to $1,699, with these Prime Day savings promotions giving folks even greater savings of $1,280 ($1,579 with the free station) that lands it at a new all-time low price, which beats out Amazon’s pricing by $80.
If you want to learn more about this all-new station, as well as its bundle options and the other extra savings promotions, be sure to check out our original coverage of these deals here.
Camplux’s 8-gallon mini under-sink electric water heater back at $208 low, more from $136
Looking in on its official Amazon storefront, Camplux is offering some good savings on under-sink and floor/wall mountable electric water heaters, with the 8-Gallon Mini Electric Water Heater standing atop the hill at $207.99 shipped. Normally $260 at full price, discounts before July regularly brought the costs down to $225, with a fall to $212 in late March. We first saw things drop lower to this rate during July’s Prime Day event, with that deal having repeated a few times in the months since. You’re getting another chance at this all-time low price again today, with $52 cut from the going rate.
If you want to learn more about this under-sink water heater, or its alternate-sized counterparts that are also seeing discounts, be sure to check out our original coverage of these deals here.
BougeRV’s 2-bike carrier for SUVs and trucks boasts a tilting feature and 150-pound payload for a $180 low
Through its official Amazon storefront, BougeRV is offering its Lockable Hitch Mount 2-Bike Carrier for SUVs & Trucks at $179.99 shipped. Normally going for $260 at full price, this bike mount was mostly seen dropping as low as $200 until mid-September, when this lower rate first appeared. Now it’s coming back for a second time, giving you a 31% markdown that saves you $80 from the full rate, landing it back at its all-time lowest price.
If you want to learn more about this handy add-on rack, be sure to check out our original coverage of this deal here.
Best Fall EV deals!
- Velotric Nomad 2X e-bike (camo) with DELTA 3 Plus station: $3,048 (Reg. $3,298)
- Velotric Nomad 2X e-bike (sage or fig) with DELTA 3 Plus station: $2,948 (Reg. $3,298)
- Aventon Ramblas Electric Mountain Bike: $2,599 (Reg. $2,899)
- Ride1Up Prodigy v2 Brose Mid-Drive Gates Belt CVT e-bike: $2,595 (Reg. $2,795)
- Ride1Up Revv 1 DRT Off-Road Moped-Style e-bike: $2,395 (Reg. $2,595)
- Ride1Up Revv 1 Full Suspension Moped-Style e-bike: $2,395 (Reg. $2,595)
- Heybike Hero 750W Mid-Drive Carbon-Fiber All-Terrain e-bike (new low): $2,299 (Reg. $3,099)
- Heybike Hero 1,000W Carbon-Fiber All-Terrain e-bike (new low): $2,099 (Reg. $2,599)
- Velotric Nomad 2 All-Terrain e-bike with $120 bundle (new): $1,999 (No price cut)
- Rad Power Radster Road Commuter e-bike: $1,999 (Reg. $2,199)
- Rad Power Radster Trail Off-Road e-bike: $1,999 (Reg. $2,199)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 35Ah Cargo e-bike w/ up to $694 bundle: $1,999 (Reg. $2,693)
- Ride1Up Prodigy v2 Brose Mid-Drive 9-Speed e-bike: $1,995 (Reg. $2,495)
- Tenways AGO X All-Terrain e-bike with $307 bundle: $1,899 (Reg. $2,499)
- Lectric ONE Long-Range Belt-Drive e-bike with $220 bundle: $1,899 (Reg. $2,619)
- Velotric Fold 1 Plus e-bike (gray or white) with DELTA 2 station: $1,898 (Reg. $2,198)
- Velotric Fold 1 Plus e-bike (mango or blue) with DELTA 2 station: $1,828 (Reg. $2,198)
- Rad Power RadRunner Plus Cargo Utility e-bike with extra battery: $1,799 (No price cut)
- Aventon Abound SR Smart Cargo e-bike (new, first discount): $1,799 (Reg. $1,899)
- Lectric XP Trike2 750 Long-Range eTrike with $455 preorder bundle: $1,799 (Reg. $2,254)
- Velotric Breeze 1 Cruiser e-bike with $150 bundle (new, first discount): $1,699 (Reg. $1,799)
- Aventon Pace 4 Smart Cruiser e-bike (new, second-ever discount): $1,699 (Reg. $1,799)
- Rad Power RadExpand 5 Plus Folding e-bike (lowest price): $1,699 (Reg. $1,899)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 26Ah Cargo e-bike w/ $545 bundle: $1,699 (Reg. $2,244)
- Lectric XPeak 2.0 Long-Range Off-Road e-bike with $415 bundle: $1,699 (Reg. $2,114)
- Rad Power RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike with extra battery: $1,599 (Reg. $1,799)
- Aventon Abound Cargo e-bike: $1,599 (Reg. $1,999)
- Ride1Up VORSA Modular Multi-Use e-bike (first discount): $1,595 (Reg. $1,695)
- Rad Power RadRunner Cargo Utility e-bike with extra battery: $1,499 (No pirce cut)
- Lectric XPeak 2.0 Standard Off-Road e-bike with $247 bundle: $1,499 (Reg. $1,746)
- Lectric XP Trike2 with $257 bundle: $1,499 (Reg. $1,756)
- Rad Power RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,799)
- Tenways CGO600 Pro e-bikes with $118 bundle: $1,499 (Reg. $1,899)
- Velotric Nomad 1 Plus All-Terrain e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,899)
- Aventon Aventure 2 All-Terrain e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,999)
- Aventon Sinch 2 Folding e-bike: $1,399 (Reg. $1,699)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 13Ah Cargo e-bike with $346 bundle: $1,399 (Reg. $1,745)
- Aventon Level 2 Commuter e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,899)
- Rad Power RadRover 6 Plus Step-Thru Fat Tire e-bike: $1,399 (Reg. $1,599)
- Velotric T1 ST Plus Lightweight e-bike: $1,399 (Reg. $1,649)
- Heybike ALPHA All-Terrain e-bike (new low): $1,399 (Reg. $1,699)
- Ride1Up Roadster V3 Lightweight Premium e-bike: $1,395 (Reg. $1,495)
- Hiboy TITAN Pro Electric Scooter (new model, code HSTP10): $1,350 (Reg. $2,000)
- Lectric XPress 750 Commuter e-bikes with $415 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,714)
- Lectric XP4 750 LR Folding Utility e-bikes with $394 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,693)
- Heybike Hauler Dual-Battery Cargo e-bike (new low): $1,299 (Reg. $1,899)
- Heybike Horizon Full-Suspension e-bike (second-ever low): $1,299 (Reg. $1,999)
- Heybike Mars 2.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with extra battery: $1,199 (Reg. $1,848)
- Lectric XP Lite 2.0 JW Black LR e-bike with $439 bundle: $1,099 (Reg. $1,538)
- Ride1Up Portola Folding e-bike: $1,095 (Reg. $1,095)
- Hiboy TITAN Electric Scooter (new model, code HST9): $1,001 (Reg. $1,700)
- Lectric XP4 Standard Folding Utility e-bikes with $79 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,078)
- Lectric XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $439 bundles: $999 (Reg. $1,438)
- Heybike Hauler Single-Battery Cargo e-bike (new low): $899 (Reg. $1,499)
- Segway E3 Pro Electric Scooter: $600 (Reg. $700)
Best new Green Deals landing this week
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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