New EPA rules will upend industry as automakers’ EV plans are too low
The US Environmental Protection Agency is set to announce sweeping new EPA rules on Wednesday intended to bring EV market share to ~60% in the US by 2030 and 67% by 2032. The rules are a big step forward for electrification, and represent an improvement from President Biden’s previous commitment of 50% electric by 2030. But it’s also far ahead of what many automakers are planning, leaving millions of EV sales up for grabs come 2030.
While the new rules have not yet been finalized (or even formally announced), the expectation based on sources within the EPA is that it will set emissions levels low enough that two thirds of vehicles would need to be electric by 2032.
The rules would bring federal guidelines close to California’s new guidelines, though it looks like this won’t quite harmonize them. California’s “Advanced Clean Cars II” (ACC2) regulation aims for 68% EV by 2030 and 82% by 2032, significantly more than the rumored EPA rule.
The California rule also bans sales of combustion-only cars in 2035, though EPA’s rules don’t seem to look that far into the future yet. California deliberately set its goals a little lower than what the state itself could achieve, in the hopes to bring other “section 177” states, and perhaps even the federal government, onboard. It wanted these rules to be “a floor, not a ceiling.”
Aligning minimum requirements would be important, as automakers have long stated a desire for a unified set of guidelines across the country. Automakers had this wish granted in 2012 when President Obama (with then-VP Biden) and the state of California agreed on emissions rules. But then they couldn’t help themselves and lobbied the EPA to fracture the rules, and later begged for a reversal of the fractured rules they lobbied for.
We’ll have to see what the proposed rules look like when they come out on Wednesday, but from what we’ve seen so far, it looks like the rules won’t quite align. Which begs the question: could the auto lobby even ask EPA to strengthen these rules, to align them with California, in keeping with their previously-stated desires for a unified regulatory scheme? It would be consistent with their stated goals anyway… but perhaps don’t hold your breath (unless a high-emitting gas car is going by, then you probably should hold your breath, at least until the smog clears).
All that said, the auto industry’s biggest lobbying organization did most recently support the government’s 2023-2026 emissions standards, so let us hope that they are turning a new leaf.
The proposed rules also lag behind public opinion. According to a recent poll, a majority of US voters support a requirement that 100% of new cars sold be electric starting 2030. The idea was “strongly” or “somewhat” supported by 55% of respondents, and opposed by just 35%. This is one reason we ask “why not sooner?” about a 2035 target for 100% electric car sales.
Automakers’ current 2030 commitments are too low
Until we see these new EPA rules, we can compare each automaker’s current stated production plans against what the EPA seems to be proposing, and see how things might shake out in the next decade based on those commitments. For the final column, we’ve multiplied current annual US sales by the company’s stated 2030 EV sales percentage (US where possible, global for companies that haven’t announced a US-specific goal). Some brands will sell more or less cars by then, and the market may grow or shrink as a whole, but we should be able to learn some things with rough math:
| Automaker | 2030 EV % | 2022 overall sales (rounded) |
2030 EV sales (est.) |
| GM | 40-50% | 2.2m | 880k-1.1m |
| Toyota | <50% (or 15%?), ~1/3 (global) | 2m | <1m (300k?) |
| Ford | 40-50% | 1.8m | 720-900k |
| Stellantis | 40-50% | 1.5m | 600-750k |
| Honda | 40-50% | 975k | 390-487k |
| Nissan | 40% “electrified” | 815k | 326k |
| Hyundai | 50% | 724k | 362k |
| Kia | 37% (global) | 654k | 241k |
| Subaru | 40% (global) | 556k | 222k |
| VW | 50% (80% global) | 498k | 249k |
| BMW | >50% (“well ahead” of 2030) | 361k | >180k |
| Daimler | 100% (Mercedes, Smart) | 342k | 342k |
| Mazda | 25-40% | 294k | 73-117k |
| Volvo | 100% | 101k | 101k |
| Jaguar Land Rover | 100% (2025) | 69k | 69k |
| Subtotal of non-EV manufacturers | (44%, averaged/ weighted) | 12.8m | ~5.7m (midpoint) |
| EV brands (Tesla, Rivian, Polestar, Lucid, etc) |
100% | ~550k | the rest |
| US total | 54-60% | 13.7m | 7.4-8.2 million |
Several smaller companies, or sub-brands of the above companies, have targeted 100% electric by 2030. Alfa Romeo, Lotus, Bentley, Cadillac, Mini, and Rolls-Royce have all committed to eliminating combustion by 2030.
From the rough math in this table, we can see a few things:
- Only three automakers, Daimler, Jaguar and Volvo, have planned to exceed the EPA’s rumored new goals.
- BMW is in the same ballpark with its >50% commitment, and a few other brands aren’t lagging too far behind with their 50% commitments.
- Kia makes good EVs. How is it in the second or third worst place on this table?
- Automakers’ current 2030 commitments only account for about 44% EV sales, averaged/weighted for their current sizes. This means overall EV commitments would need to increase by about a third to meet the Biden admin’s reported 60% goal.
But here’s what I would consider the most important takeaway: there is a gap of 1.7-2.5 million cars just waiting to be filled. Those are cars that need to be electric in order to meet the EPA’s rumored guidelines, and which automakers are currently not planning to make.
The auto industry is up for grabs
So, someone is going to have to build those cars. Who’s it gonna be?
A full car development cycle takes about 7 years. So if automakers want to get ready for these new EPA rules, they need to start today, if they haven’t already.
Some automakers may adopt a wait-and-see attitude, or may hope for legal challenges or an eventual softening or reversal of the regulation. But those automakers will be ceding time and leadership to a number of companies who would be happy to gobble up those millions of vehicle sales.
Those companies are listed at the end of the table: the EV brands. The likes of Tesla, Rivian, Polestar, and Lucid may not all have the capacity yet, but they’re eyeing this blue ocean, this sea of vehicles that have to be sold but which nobody seems to want to sell, and actively positioning themselves to grab as many of those free sales as possible. They’re not just starting their 7-year development cycles now, they already started them years ago. They won’t just be ready in 2030, they’ll be on the move well before then.
And even BYD and NIO, or other Chinese brands, may make inroads into the US market for the first time ever due to this not-sufficiently-tapped demand. Americans are wary of Chinese cars, but they were wary of Japanese cars, too, until a crisis in the 70s forced a realignment of the auto industry. And it certainly seems like a realignment is due to happen now.
But they won’t just grab those free vehicles, they’ll also eat into the incumbent automakers’ sales. We’ve seen this happen in every segment that Tesla goes into – incumbent automakers’ ICE sales go down in proportion to Tesla’s sales going up.
So unless automakers want that to happen, they better ratchet up their 2030 goals. And they better do it right now, not in a few years while they wait to see if these rules get challenged. We should see a lot of announcements in the coming weeks, if automakers know what’s good for them.
Are the new EPA rules achievable?
EV sales have grown quite rapidly for the last decade. In 2013, the first year that Tesla Model S sales started in earnest and when Nissan Leaf sales rose sharply, 47k EVs were sold in the US. In 2022, 762k EVs were sold. Using just these two data points, that’s a compound annual growth rate of 36%.
In 2022, US EV market share was 5.8%. To reach 60% by 2030, that means we need to grow EV sales at a compound annual growth rate of 34% between now and then – a similar growth rate to what we’ve already seen. So these EPA numbers are attainable, if we continue efforts at this rate.
Of course this will take a lot of investment, supply chain work, and deployment of chargers and other associated laws and regulations even down to the local level in order to prepare the country for the shift to electric cars. But many of those investments are in the process of being made by the Biden administration, through allocation of funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, and states and cities have slowly been removing roadblocks to charger installation as well (e.g. through Right to Charge).
The EPA move isn’t being made in a vacuum, and while it’s a step further than the early ambitions of the administration, work has been done and the market has evolved since that early executive order. With EV demand through the roof and so many new investments into EV production, it looks like the administration seems confident that these targets are achievable.
Besides, these targets are necessary. The IEA says that all new passenger car sales need to be electric, globally, by 2035, if we’re to avoid the worst effects of climate change. So there’s really no question over whether we should do this, or whether we can. We have to, so we better figure out a way to do it, because this is not something we have a choice over.
And while many automakers will complain about how hard it is, perhaps a change in perspective is warranted: electric cars are coming, and automakers who don’t shape up will be caught with their pants down, even moreso than they already have been. A swift kick in the rear by regulators might just force them into action they never would have taken on their own.
And as customer desires continue to shift more towards better, cleaner vehicles and sales of worse, dirty vehicles dry up, laggard automakers will find themselves in a better situation than if they had just sat there twiddling their thumbs, hoping for it all to pass.
Besides, we’ve seen EV goals get exceeded elsewhere. Norway is handily meeting even the most ambitious goals in the world, The UK has pushed forward its timeline (twice), and in China some gas cars are already becoming valueless. There are plenty of examples of EV adoption happening faster than expected. So maybe a can-do attitude would behoove us, here in America… where we used to value that sort of thing.
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Yolo County, California depends on its climate for continued agricultural success. As such, the county’s leaders are taking environmental stewardship seriously by aiming for full carbon neutrality by 2030. To help achieve that goal, they’re putting zero-emission machinery like the Volvo DD25 Electric compactor to work.
We got our first chance to sample the DD25 Electric at Volvo Days last summer, where the all-electric tandem roller’s vibrating drums impressed dealers and end users alike. It was no surprise, then, that when Yolo Country fleet superintendent, Ben Lee, when shopping for a compactor the DD25 Electric was high on his list.
“The DD25 Electric will help us achieve our goals in several ways,” explains Lee. “By reducing emissions, lowering noise levels, being more energy-efficient, improving working conditions and promoting environmentally friendly practices … we’ll use it to compact soil, gravel and other base materials for road and foundation projects, as well as rolling out and leveling asphalt during road construction and resurfacing.”
To help Lee handle those various projects, the Volvo’s drum frequency can be adjusted from 3500 vpm (55 Hz) to 4000 vpm (67 Hz) to cater to different applications and materials.
The DD25 Electric offers other benefits, as well – like a 20 kWh 48V battery that offers up between six and eight hours of continuous operation. That’s could be several shifts in the kind of conditions Yolo’s work crews will encounter, meaning it will only have to get put to bed (Volvo recommend overnight AC charging) two or three times a week.
Getting power to the compactor, too, is something Yolo is considering. “There are some remote areas in the county, so we’re looking into a mobile, self-contained charging unit as well,” explains Lee, apparently referencing the Volvo PU130 mobile battery. “So we wouldn’t have to bring the machine back to the yard each night during a long-term project.”
Yolo County views electric equipment as an essential step in reducing emissions and energy consumption, especially as communities work towards stricter regulations and sustainability goals.
Electrek’s Take
This press release came to us ahead of the devastating wild fires in Southern California that are dominating headlines right now – so much so that I effectively sat on the news for a few days, debating whether or not we should even be talking about a California news story that isn’t about the fires right now.
But I realized: this story is about the fires. Climate change driven by combustion and carbon emissions is driving climate change and that’s making fires like these possible … and I should have run it sooner.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo CE.
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Kubota came to this year’s CES with a sprawling display filled with electric equipment, hydrogen gensets, and an onslaught of commercial robots ready to mow, farm, dig, and build. If you weren’t impressed by Kubota’s display this year, you weren’t paying attention.
Kubota gave us a sneak peek of its KATR farm robot – itself a smaller, updated version of last year’s New Agri Concept – before the doors officially opened last week. Kubota’s robotic farm buddies promise to be able to quietly and autonomously haul stuff from one end of the farm to another, or pull carts and specialized implements along predetermined paths.
KATR uses self-leveling technology and active suspension to ensure its cargo deck stays level when working on the sort of uneven terrain found on farms or construction sites.
That doesn’t mean the New Agri Concept is dead, though. Agri Concept 2.0 debuted as an electric tractor concept offering AI-powered automation and a fully electric powertrain. The new version features a Lite Brite-style “grille” that it uses to communicate its current mode, direction, and other important information with the people it shares a job site with.
On the more practical side, Kubota showed off its KX38-4e Electric compact excavator. First shown in overseas markets in 2022, the KX38-4e Electric features a 49.2 kWh lithium-ion battery that’s good for up to five hours of continuous operation. More than enough to complete a typical day of work on a construction site when you factor out idle time.
An onboard DC fast charger means it can be quickly recharged between shifts, too. But when there’s no grid power on the site, charging can be a challenge. That’s why Kubota has hydrogen genset for zero-emission on-site power generation.
Looked at individually, each of the new electric Kubota products on display might be impressive. The real magic, though, is in the way the Kubota machines work together as a holistic job site or farm solution.
“At Kubota, we believe that truly listening to our customers drives innovation in every aspect of what we call the ‘Work Loop’,” explains Brett McMickell, Chief Technology Officer of Kubota North America. “The Work Loop — an essential cycle of assessing, analyzing, and acting — has always been fundamental to effective task management. With the integration of advanced sensors, AI-driven analysis, networking protocols, automation, and robotics, we are enhancing this cycle to be more seamless and efficient than ever before.”
That was obvious in some of the more thoughtful implements and attachments on display, including a Smart Plant Imager that uses advanced robotics and “hyper-spectral imaging” cameras to capture real-time data and insights on a plant-by-plant level – as well as a Smart Autonomous Sprayer and Robotic Pruner that that classifies buds and canes based on position and fruiting potential, it optimizes production precision and accuracy.
The more you look, the more impressive Kubota’s farming solution gets. “We will continue to learn from many of our customers across segments to iterate the next product and technology solution that will help them manage tomorrow’s challenges and grow their businesses,” McMickell added. “This is how Kubota works to make a better quality of life for individuals and society.”
There was more, of course. Autonomous versions of the company’s electric zero-turn mower with GPS-powered route memory, fun accessory baskets for the robots, even a weird, jet engine looking thing that I forgot to ask about (below). I was genuinely impressed, in other words, and can’t wait to see what Kubota comes up with next year.
Kubota CES2025 | more photos
Original content from Electrek.
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The e-bike industry has stalled a little bit in terms of features, and with harsh new legislation coming in from places like California, maybe it is time to start looking at e-bikes that are light, efficient, and smooth rather than how much wattage they can output. The Tenways CGO 600Pro, which comes in at just 37 pounds, is a model e-bike you should keep an eye on…
The CGO 600Pro comes in 2 flavors: a carbon belt single-speed version that Micah reviewed and this one, which is a chain and 8-speed Shimano gears. The belt drive is going to win out on simplicity and weight but if you are expecting to get close to the ‘class 1’ top speed of 20mph or need to go up some significant hills, you’ll want to opt for the chain/gear version here.
One thing I love about this bike is the tradeoff decisions. These keep the price low and weight down while still providing a great ride. The spec sheet overall is solid but not top-shelf.
Tenways CGO600 Pro tech specs (chain/geared version)
- Motor: 350 Watt rear hub motor with 45 Nm of torque
- Top speed: 20 mph (32 km/h)
- Range: Claimed up to 53 miles (85 km)
- Battery: 36V 10Ah (360 Wh)
- Weight: 37 lb (16.8 kg, over 40lbs with fenders, kickstand, etc)
- Frame: 6061 aluminum alloy
- Tires: CST Puncture-proof 700*45C-size Tires
- Brakes: Tektro dual-piston hydraulic disc brakes
- Gearing: Shimano 8-Speed Claris
- Extras: Compact LED display, 4 pedal assist levels, slim fender set, kickstand, internally routed cables, LED lighting, removable battery, Tenways app integration, torque sensor, four color options
No Throttle?
Note that as a class 1 e-bike, neither belt/chain version has a throttle. While this may be controversial to some, it not only simplifies the bike, it makes it a Class 1, which will be legal in the most places. I tend to think of no throttle as a “foot throttle” and for the commuter application, this will serve well. Would I appreciate a throttle on a hill start? Perhaps.
The idea of this bike is to just enhance your pedal bike experience. You are going to get some exercise on this bike versus a bike that is a glorified low-power moped that runs on throttle with vestigial pedals.
More importantly, the torque sensor here is phenomenal; I mean, it is probably the best torque sensor I’ve ridden connected to a rear hub motor. The acceleration is smooth and strangely powerful for the 350W/45nm motor. Significant hills are a breeze, and this is one of the few bikes where I forget that I’m using an e-bike sometimes (until I look down and I’m going 20mph with little effort). Hills are also where the gearing really helps.
The tires are also the perfect size for a commuter with puncture resistance and treads that will do OK in rain and snow.
The bike itself is also very stealthy in terms of showing that it is a powered e-bike. The small 36V, 10Ah battery is integrated magnificently into the narrow downtube of the bike. All of the cables are integrated into the bike frame for a super-clean look. The rear hub motor is small but packs a punch. Many people won’t even recognize this as an e-bike. While I’m proud to be riding an e-bike around, perhaps some people would like to keep that on the down-low.
Brakes are great with hydraulic Tektros clasping against 160mm rotors in front and back. It is such a light bike that stopping can be jarring.
Assembly was super easy and took about 30 minutes with the included tool set. The battery came about 40% charged but was ready to go within a few hours with the 3A charger. Shoutout to Tenways for using a water-resistant standardized barrel charger adapter and not some proprietary adapter so that I can use one from another bike when I inevitably lose it.
Electrek’s take
The Tenways CGO600 is a fantastic light, clean, stiff and smooth e-bike that I have 0 reservations about recommending. While the battery and motor are small, they power the light bike admirably and for around 50 miles (your mileage will vary).
Currently there is a $200 off promotion code “HAPPY2025TW” at checkout bringing the CGO600Pro down to $1399 which is an amazing price for this bike:
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