New EPA rules will upend industry as automakers’ EV plans are too low
The US Environmental Protection Agency is set to announce sweeping new EPA rules on Wednesday intended to bring EV market share to ~60% in the US by 2030 and 67% by 2032. The rules are a big step forward for electrification, and represent an improvement from President Biden’s previous commitment of 50% electric by 2030. But it’s also far ahead of what many automakers are planning, leaving millions of EV sales up for grabs come 2030.
While the new rules have not yet been finalized (or even formally announced), the expectation based on sources within the EPA is that it will set emissions levels low enough that two thirds of vehicles would need to be electric by 2032.
The rules would bring federal guidelines close to California’s new guidelines, though it looks like this won’t quite harmonize them. California’s “Advanced Clean Cars II” (ACC2) regulation aims for 68% EV by 2030 and 82% by 2032, significantly more than the rumored EPA rule.
The California rule also bans sales of combustion-only cars in 2035, though EPA’s rules don’t seem to look that far into the future yet. California deliberately set its goals a little lower than what the state itself could achieve, in the hopes to bring other “section 177” states, and perhaps even the federal government, onboard. It wanted these rules to be “a floor, not a ceiling.”
Aligning minimum requirements would be important, as automakers have long stated a desire for a unified set of guidelines across the country. Automakers had this wish granted in 2012 when President Obama (with then-VP Biden) and the state of California agreed on emissions rules. But then they couldn’t help themselves and lobbied the EPA to fracture the rules, and later begged for a reversal of the fractured rules they lobbied for.
We’ll have to see what the proposed rules look like when they come out on Wednesday, but from what we’ve seen so far, it looks like the rules won’t quite align. Which begs the question: could the auto lobby even ask EPA to strengthen these rules, to align them with California, in keeping with their previously-stated desires for a unified regulatory scheme? It would be consistent with their stated goals anyway… but perhaps don’t hold your breath (unless a high-emitting gas car is going by, then you probably should hold your breath, at least until the smog clears).
All that said, the auto industry’s biggest lobbying organization did most recently support the government’s 2023-2026 emissions standards, so let us hope that they are turning a new leaf.
The proposed rules also lag behind public opinion. According to a recent poll, a majority of US voters support a requirement that 100% of new cars sold be electric starting 2030. The idea was “strongly” or “somewhat” supported by 55% of respondents, and opposed by just 35%. This is one reason we ask “why not sooner?” about a 2035 target for 100% electric car sales.
Automakers’ current 2030 commitments are too low
Until we see these new EPA rules, we can compare each automaker’s current stated production plans against what the EPA seems to be proposing, and see how things might shake out in the next decade based on those commitments. For the final column, we’ve multiplied current annual US sales by the company’s stated 2030 EV sales percentage (US where possible, global for companies that haven’t announced a US-specific goal). Some brands will sell more or less cars by then, and the market may grow or shrink as a whole, but we should be able to learn some things with rough math:
| Automaker | 2030 EV % | 2022 overall sales (rounded) |
2030 EV sales (est.) |
| GM | 40-50% | 2.2m | 880k-1.1m |
| Toyota | <50% (or 15%?), ~1/3 (global) | 2m | <1m (300k?) |
| Ford | 40-50% | 1.8m | 720-900k |
| Stellantis | 40-50% | 1.5m | 600-750k |
| Honda | 40-50% | 975k | 390-487k |
| Nissan | 40% “electrified” | 815k | 326k |
| Hyundai | 50% | 724k | 362k |
| Kia | 37% (global) | 654k | 241k |
| Subaru | 40% (global) | 556k | 222k |
| VW | 50% (80% global) | 498k | 249k |
| BMW | >50% (“well ahead” of 2030) | 361k | >180k |
| Daimler | 100% (Mercedes, Smart) | 342k | 342k |
| Mazda | 25-40% | 294k | 73-117k |
| Volvo | 100% | 101k | 101k |
| Jaguar Land Rover | 100% (2025) | 69k | 69k |
| Subtotal of non-EV manufacturers | (44%, averaged/ weighted) | 12.8m | ~5.7m (midpoint) |
| EV brands (Tesla, Rivian, Polestar, Lucid, etc) |
100% | ~550k | the rest |
| US total | 54-60% | 13.7m | 7.4-8.2 million |
Several smaller companies, or sub-brands of the above companies, have targeted 100% electric by 2030. Alfa Romeo, Lotus, Bentley, Cadillac, Mini, and Rolls-Royce have all committed to eliminating combustion by 2030.
From the rough math in this table, we can see a few things:
- Only three automakers, Daimler, Jaguar and Volvo, have planned to exceed the EPA’s rumored new goals.
- BMW is in the same ballpark with its >50% commitment, and a few other brands aren’t lagging too far behind with their 50% commitments.
- Kia makes good EVs. How is it in the second or third worst place on this table?
- Automakers’ current 2030 commitments only account for about 44% EV sales, averaged/weighted for their current sizes. This means overall EV commitments would need to increase by about a third to meet the Biden admin’s reported 60% goal.
But here’s what I would consider the most important takeaway: there is a gap of 1.7-2.5 million cars just waiting to be filled. Those are cars that need to be electric in order to meet the EPA’s rumored guidelines, and which automakers are currently not planning to make.
The auto industry is up for grabs
So, someone is going to have to build those cars. Who’s it gonna be?
A full car development cycle takes about 7 years. So if automakers want to get ready for these new EPA rules, they need to start today, if they haven’t already.
Some automakers may adopt a wait-and-see attitude, or may hope for legal challenges or an eventual softening or reversal of the regulation. But those automakers will be ceding time and leadership to a number of companies who would be happy to gobble up those millions of vehicle sales.
Those companies are listed at the end of the table: the EV brands. The likes of Tesla, Rivian, Polestar, and Lucid may not all have the capacity yet, but they’re eyeing this blue ocean, this sea of vehicles that have to be sold but which nobody seems to want to sell, and actively positioning themselves to grab as many of those free sales as possible. They’re not just starting their 7-year development cycles now, they already started them years ago. They won’t just be ready in 2030, they’ll be on the move well before then.
And even BYD and NIO, or other Chinese brands, may make inroads into the US market for the first time ever due to this not-sufficiently-tapped demand. Americans are wary of Chinese cars, but they were wary of Japanese cars, too, until a crisis in the 70s forced a realignment of the auto industry. And it certainly seems like a realignment is due to happen now.
But they won’t just grab those free vehicles, they’ll also eat into the incumbent automakers’ sales. We’ve seen this happen in every segment that Tesla goes into – incumbent automakers’ ICE sales go down in proportion to Tesla’s sales going up.
So unless automakers want that to happen, they better ratchet up their 2030 goals. And they better do it right now, not in a few years while they wait to see if these rules get challenged. We should see a lot of announcements in the coming weeks, if automakers know what’s good for them.
Are the new EPA rules achievable?
EV sales have grown quite rapidly for the last decade. In 2013, the first year that Tesla Model S sales started in earnest and when Nissan Leaf sales rose sharply, 47k EVs were sold in the US. In 2022, 762k EVs were sold. Using just these two data points, that’s a compound annual growth rate of 36%.
In 2022, US EV market share was 5.8%. To reach 60% by 2030, that means we need to grow EV sales at a compound annual growth rate of 34% between now and then – a similar growth rate to what we’ve already seen. So these EPA numbers are attainable, if we continue efforts at this rate.
Of course this will take a lot of investment, supply chain work, and deployment of chargers and other associated laws and regulations even down to the local level in order to prepare the country for the shift to electric cars. But many of those investments are in the process of being made by the Biden administration, through allocation of funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, and states and cities have slowly been removing roadblocks to charger installation as well (e.g. through Right to Charge).
The EPA move isn’t being made in a vacuum, and while it’s a step further than the early ambitions of the administration, work has been done and the market has evolved since that early executive order. With EV demand through the roof and so many new investments into EV production, it looks like the administration seems confident that these targets are achievable.
Besides, these targets are necessary. The IEA says that all new passenger car sales need to be electric, globally, by 2035, if we’re to avoid the worst effects of climate change. So there’s really no question over whether we should do this, or whether we can. We have to, so we better figure out a way to do it, because this is not something we have a choice over.
And while many automakers will complain about how hard it is, perhaps a change in perspective is warranted: electric cars are coming, and automakers who don’t shape up will be caught with their pants down, even moreso than they already have been. A swift kick in the rear by regulators might just force them into action they never would have taken on their own.
And as customer desires continue to shift more towards better, cleaner vehicles and sales of worse, dirty vehicles dry up, laggard automakers will find themselves in a better situation than if they had just sat there twiddling their thumbs, hoping for it all to pass.
Besides, we’ve seen EV goals get exceeded elsewhere. Norway is handily meeting even the most ambitious goals in the world, The UK has pushed forward its timeline (twice), and in China some gas cars are already becoming valueless. There are plenty of examples of EV adoption happening faster than expected. So maybe a can-do attitude would behoove us, here in America… where we used to value that sort of thing.
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Elon Musk implies that he’ll quit his part-time job as CEO of Tesla (TSLA) if he doesn’t get his $1 trillion pay package. On today’s episode of Quick Charge, I suggest GM’s Mary Barra should replace him, and explore some of the compelling EV deals out there looking to take a bite out of Elon’s market share.
In addition to my take on what the TSLA board should or shouldn’t decide, we’ve got a pile of EV lease deals, some hot, upcoming new electric Jeep models, and a look at some of the ways the end of the Federal EV tax credit isn’t the end at all.
Quick Charge is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. The nonprofit just kicked off its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream model. Visit CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek to learn more.
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The US added more than 4,000 new DC fast-charging ports in Q3 2025, pushing the total past 64,000. The country’s EV infrastructure keeps maturing, despite new station openings slowing slightly this summer.
US DC fast-charging ports expand past 64,000
According to EV charging data platform Paren’s latest “State of the US Fast EV Charging Industry Report,” the number of public DC fast-charging ports climbed to 64,486 across 12,375 charging stations nationwide in Q3 2025. That’s despite a modest slowdown in new openings: Operators added 699 new stations, down 12% from Q2, and 4,061 new ports, down 7.7%.
Paren says the dip mirrors seasonal trends seen in 2024 and expects growth to rebound in Q4, with early October data already coming in strong. The company still projects the US to add around 16,700 new ports by the end of 2025. Notably, larger charging stations are becoming the norm: 27% of all stations now have eight or more stalls, up from 23% last quarter.
Tesla dominates new ports, and the market widens
Tesla led Q3 deployments with 1,820 new ports – nearly 45% of all added nationwide. ChargePoint (300), Red E (215), Electrify America (164), and EV Connect (146) rounded out the top five. But Paren notes that smaller and regional operators collectively accounted for 21% of new ports, demonstrating how the market is diversifying.
Every state added at least one new fast-charging station this quarter. California again led the pack with 108 new sites, followed by Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois. Upstart network Ionna, formed earlier this year by seven automakers, opened 12 new stations with 132 ports. At the same time, Michigan-based Red E jumped to third place after expanding across 18 states, including new sites at Aldi supermarkets.
Summer travel lifted fast charging demand
The summer travel season drove EV charging activity higher across almost the entire US. Fast charger use increased in 45 states, stayed flat in one, and dipped in five. Maine saw the biggest bump (+1.9 in utilization growth), followed by Montana (+1.8), New York (+1.8), and Oregon (+1.8), all reflecting busier tourism routes and expanding highway and corridor buildouts.
Paren also found signs that Tesla’s opening its Supercharger network to non-Tesla EV drivers is shifting behavior. Some non-Tesla charging stations saw slight utilization declines, suggesting a growing number of drivers are switching to Tesla’s network for convenience.
It’s all about reliability and upkeep
Paren’s “reliability index” measures charger reliability, taking into account recent successful charge sessions with and without retries, failed charge attempts, and station downtime over a specific time period.
Reliability based on Paren’s definition inched up again, from 92.1% to 92.3%. Thirty-two states improved their reliability scores this quarter, while 15 declined and four held steady. Oklahoma showed the biggest improvement (+4.4), though it still ranks last overall at 73.3%. Mississippi (91.1, +2.6) and Idaho (92.1, +2) also made solid gains, while Rhode Island (88.2, -2.7) and Alaska (96.3, -1.9) saw declines.
Paren says reliability now depends less on geography and more on operator performance, site age, and proactive maintenance. With more federally and state-funded chargers coming online, the focus is shifting from buildout to upkeep. Operators investing in preventive maintenance, faster outage response, and top-quality software integration will be best positioned to keep drivers happy.
Average fast-charging prices rose by a penny
Nationwide average pricing rose by a penny in Q3 to $0.49 per kilowatt-hour, with most states falling between $0.48 and $0.54. Hawaii remains the priciest at $0.85/kWh, while Nebraska is the cheapest at $0.42/kWh. Several charge point operators offered summer discounts and promotional rates, but Paren found no clear link between lower prices and higher use.
A few states saw notable price swings: Alaska jumped $0.04, while Arkansas dropped $0.05 and Hawaii fell $0.07. The jury’s still out on whether rates continue rising post-summer; that will depend on wholesale electricity costs, demand trends, and competition among networks.
Electrek’s Take
Paren’s Q3 snapshot shows a maturing charging market: slightly slower but steady growth, improving reliability, and broader competition. Tesla’s Superchargers are still leading the pack when it comes to the volume of new ports being rolled out. Still, the fast charging landscape is expanding with more regional players and multi-port hubs with both NACS and CCS capability across the map. A big priority now is to keep those chargers working and affordable as more people switch to EVs.
Read more: The US added 4,200 new DC fast charging ports, and that’s just Q2
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Is it electric? A hybrid? A new Toyota crossover SUV was spotted testing out in public rocking a unique look.
New Toyota EV crossover and SUVs are coming soon
Toyota is gearing up to launch a series of new battery electric (BEV), hybrid, and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles over the next few years in nearly every market.
In the US, Toyota currently offers just one fully electric vehicle (excluding the Lexus RZ), the bZ (formerly the bZ4X), but that will soon change.
Toyota plans to offer seven fully electric vehicles by mid-2027, including under its luxury Lexus brand. Joining the updated bZ and Lexus RZ next year will be the smaller C-HR crossover and more rugged bZ Woodland SUVs.
Shortly after, it will introduce two electric SUVs that Toyota will build at its plant in Kentucky. Although Toyota has yet to announce it publicly, the new electric SUVs are expected to be based on the RAV4 and Land Cruisers. They will replace the Lexus ES in Kentucky, while the next-gen EV version will be exported to the US from Japan.
In Europe, Toyota will launch the updated bZ4X, CH-R+, and Urban Cruisers by the end of the year. Three additional crossovers and SUVs are set to follow in 2026.
While we already know what most of those will looks like, the new crossover SUV doesn’t appear to be any of them. The spy photos from SH Proshots (via Autoevolution) show what looks to be the next-gen Toyota Venza, or the Harrier for those outside of the US.
You can tell it’s a bit taller and less aerodynamic than the electric crossover SUVs that Toyota showcased earlier this year.
The Venza was a bit of a step up from your average Toyota SUV with a more premium feel, but it was discontinued after the 2024 model year to make way for the Crown Signia.
Although Toyota has yet to reveal anything about the next-gen Venza, rumors suggest it will be built on the TNGA-K platform, which underpins the new RAV4. The platform is designed to open up interior space with a lower center of gravity.
Inside, you can expect to see Toyota’s latest Audio Multimedia system, which also debuted in the new RAV4. The setup includes a standard 10.5″ smartphone-like touchscreen infotainment or you can upgrade to the larger 12.9″ screen.
Given Toyota has yet to publicly announced the next-gen Venza, powertrain options is still up in the air. The report speculates it will arrive as a self-charging hybrid or plug-in hybrid (PHEV), or both.
Since it’s still in its early stages, the new model isn’t expected to launch until 2027. It could arrive as a 2028 model year in the US.
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