Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor.

Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.

Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to-date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 passing and 200 rushing yards per game this season. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make a run in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.

Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: Tennessee

Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Big Ten

Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.

Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: USC

Work to do: Nebraska, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.

Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami

On the cusp: Georgia Tech

Work to do: Virginia

Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12

Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated, and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge at a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …

Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

On the cusp: BYU

Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah

Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.

Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — After a week of chaos surrounding the North Carolina football program and Bill Belichick’s future in Chapel Hill, the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach denied rumors he was looking for an exit and doubled down on his belief that his “process” eventually will lead to a winning team.

“Reports about my looking for a buyout or trying to leave here is categorically false,” Belichick said. “There’s zero truth to any of that. I’m glad I’m here. We’re working toward our goals. We believe very much in the process. We need to just keep working and grinding away, and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”

Belichick said there were “things we could’ve done better” but widely praised embattled general manager Michael Lombardi as having “done a good job,” reiterated that the timing of his hire put North Carolina behind other schools in terms of talent acquisition, and said that, regardless of the on-field results for the 2-3 team, UNC has made major strides in its performance.

“It’s a learning curve,” Belichick said. “We’re all in it together. But we’re making a lot of progress, and the process will eventually produce the results we want like they have everywhere else I’ve been.”

Belichick’s Monday media session was attended by university chancellor Lee Roberts, athletics director Bubba Cunningham and a host of other high-level administrators, as well as Lombardi — something unique for a midseason news conference.

Cunningham said the school continues to support Belichick’s vision for the program, but he admitted the disappointing results have led to a lot of frustration.

“There’s a steeper learning curve than we all anticipated,” Cunningham said. “The gap between expectations and performance is more severe than what we expected, and that’s what creates a lot of attention.”

Two weeks ago, Lombardi sent a letter to donors preaching patience during a “rebuilding” process, a terminology several players pushed back on.

“It’s Coach Belichick’s first year, so I’m not surprised he’s wanting to rebuild it,” Boise State transfer Andrew Simpson said. “Wanting to grow and be better, that’s what I focus on. Just because it’s a rebuild doesn’t mean we can’t win games now. We have seven more games, and that’s what I focus on.”

Belichick downplayed any concerns about the on-field results, saying he doesn’t “have expectations other than achieving what we want to achieve every day” and reiterating he has the support of the administration.

Reports of internal strife in the locker room were also dismissed by Belichick and multiple players made available to the media Monday, with Belichick saying Lombardi, in particular, maintains close conversations with players.

Among other controversies last week, Belichick refused to comment on the suspension of assistant coach Armond Hawkins for recruiting violations, but he said a planned Hulu documentary, which had reportedly been scrapped amid the team’s bad start, would still happen in some form.

“It’s still a work in progress, and we’re working through a few logistics,” Belichick said. “But there will be something.”

North Carolina is coming off its second open date in the past three weeks and heads to Cal for the team’s first ACC road trip Friday.

Belichick said he expects an improved performance with the additional week of practice time, despite a woeful defeat against Clemson following the last open date.

“Everybody’s most interested in the final score, and I’m at the top of that list,” he said. “But it’s a process. You build a culture, you build a program, and eventually the results will come. When will that happen? Hopefully as soon as possible. We’re working hard to get there.”

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — James Franklin’s record in big games played a role in Penn State moving on from the longtime head coach, athletic director Pat Kraft acknowledged Monday.

“I’m here to win a national championship,” Kraft said. “And I believe our fans deserve that.”

Penn State fired Franklin on Sunday after 12 seasons following a stunning 0-3 start in the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions opened the year ranked No. 2 in the polls off an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals last season.

But Penn State tumbled out of the polls two weeks ago after losing to then-winless UCLA, which hadn’t held a lead all season. Then at home on Saturday, the Nittany Lions lost to Northwestern.

With the two losses, Penn State became the first team since the FBS and FCS split in 1978 to lose consecutive games while favored by 20 or more points in each game, according to ESPN Research.

Yet Penn State’s first defeat of the losing streak continued a troubling and inescapable trend under Franklin, which ultimately led to the move.

The Nittany Lions fell at home in double overtime to Oregon, dropping Franklin to 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents, including 1-18 against top-10 Big Ten teams in conference games. Franklin’s .160 winning percentage against AP top-10 teams is tied for the third-worst record by a coach (minimum 25 games) at a single school since the poll era began in 1936, according to ESPN Research. Penn State has not defeated a Big Ten top 10 opponent since knocking off Ohio State in 2016.

“This is not a three-game thing,” Kraft said. “This is really diving where we are as a program — what is the trajectory of this program?”

Kraft noted that the athletic department will cover the $49 million buyout that Franklin is owed, the second-biggest buyout in college football history behind only Jimbo Fisher’s $76 million buyout from Texas A&M.

Despite that figure — and the ongoing $700 million renovation to Beaver Stadium — Kraft said Penn State will aim high in hiring its next coach.

“We want someone who will attract elite talent, retain players in the NIL era and make Penn State a destination,” he said. “Our next coach needs to be able to maximize elite level resources, attack the transfer portal and develop at the highest level.”

Franklin reached double-digit wins in six of his 11 full seasons. But Penn State’s last national title came 39 years ago.

“Football is our backbone. We have invested at the highest level. With that comes high expectations,” Kraft said. “I believe a new leader can help us win a national championship — and now is the right time for this change.”