Ultra-low interest rates are set to return with inflation due to tumble in the near future, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This will be welcome news to homeowners, many of whom have recently been hit with a steep rise in mortgage costs.
The United Nations financial agency says that the combination of an ageing population and low productivity is set to rein in inflation and take interest rates back to pre-COVID levels.
Skyrocketing inflation, currently at a four-decade high in Britain, is only a hiccup in the overall trend for low interest rates, rather than a permanent change to the global financial landscape, the IMF said.
“Recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary. When inflation is brought back under control, advanced economies’ central banks are likely to ease monetary policy and bring real interest rates back towards pre-pandemic levels,” a report by IMF economists concluded.
The IMF analysis found that the “natural” rate of interest had not been changed by the pandemic.
The so-called “natural” rates of interest, an anchor for monetary policy that neither stimulates nor discourages economic activity, “will remain low in advanced economies or decline further in emerging markets,” the report concluded.
More on Interest Rates
Related Topics:
If accurate, that means less fiscal pressure as governments will be able to borrow more cheaply.
But it would mean central banks, particularly in developed countries, may again have to rely on bond buying and other strategies to cut policy interest rates.
Some economists have argued the pandemic shifted the natural rate of interest higher, reversing forces like globalisation that helped keep borrowing costs low and also driving up government debts to historic levels.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
7:33
The Bank of England has released documents revealing a slight increase in UK’s GDP in Q2 of 2023, contrary to its earlier predictions of a technical recession.
The IMF said it is possible things have changed, and noted that the impact of developments like the transition to a less carbon-intensive economy remain to be seen.
However, the fund said its analysis suggests that the current high rates “are likely to be temporary”.
Once rates normalise to prior low levels, a deep enough recession may force central banks “to resort to the same strategies they employed in the decade before the pandemic, such as balance sheet policy and forward guidance”.
An international manhunt is under way for the husband of a murdered woman, whose body was found in the boot of a car.
The body of Harshita Brella was found in east London on Thursday, tens of miles away from her home in Corby.
On Sunday, Northamptonshire Police said they were looking for Pankaj Lamba – who they believe has left the country.
Sky News understands she had been under the protection of a court order designed for victims of domestic abuse.
“Our inquiries lead us to suspect that Harshita was murdered in Northamptonshire earlier this month by her husband Pankaj Lamba,” said chief inspector Paul Cash.
“We suspect Lamba transported Harshita’s body from Northamptonshire to Ilford by car.”
“Fast track” enquires were made after the force was contacted on Wednesday by someone concerned about Ms Brella’s welfare. After she failed to answer the door at her home in Skegness Walk, Corby, a missing person investigation was launched.
Her body was found inside the boot of a vehicle on Brisbane Road, Ilford, in the early hours of Thursday morning.
A post mortem – conducted at Leicester Royal Infirmary on Friday – established she had been murdered.
More than 60 detectives are working on the case, with lines of enquiry including going house to house and property searches, as well as looking at CCTV and ANPR.
“We are of course continuing to appeal for any information that will help us piece together exactly what happened as we work to get justice for Harshita,” said chief inspector Cash.
“I urge anyone listening to or reading this statement, that if you saw anything suspicious in the past week or have any information, no matter how small, please contact us. We would always rather receive well-meaning information that turns out to be nothing as opposed to not receiving it all.”
Force referred to police watchdog
On Saturday, Northamptonshire Police said it had made a mandatory referral to the Independent Office for Police Conduct due to previous contact between the force and the victim.
Northamptonshire Police previously said officers had been conducting investigations at three locations: Skegness Walk and Sturton Walk in Corby and Brisbane Road, Ilford, where Ms Brella’s body was found.
East Midlands Special Operations Major Crime Unit (EMSOU) and Northamptonshire Police said they were working “around the clock to establish the circumstances behind her death, including the exact location and timeframe in which it took place”.
Speaking about the recreation, she said: “We’ve got leading experts in their fields who have been working on this for 10 years and so everything has been meticulously researched, meticulously evidenced, so you are seeing the most accurate portrayal of Richard III”.
A team based at Face Lab at Liverpool John Moores University created the avatar based on the reconstruction of Richard III’s head with the help of a craniofacial expert.
Experts from various fields helped put the pieces of the puzzle together, including speech and language therapy, dentistry, forensic psychology and archaeology.
More on Royal Family
Related Topics:
His voice has been created by Professor David Crystal, a leading linguist in 15th-century pronunciation. He admitted that it’s impossible to know exactly how he spoke, but this is as close as they will get.
The king was born in Northampton but spent a lot of his life in Yorkshire. His parents were also from the north of England.
Advertisement
Vocal coach Yvonne Morley-Chisholm spent a decade researching how the monarch would have sounded. She worked with the actor Thomas Dennis who was chosen as his body and face were such a good physical match.
Speaking to Sky News, she said people will be shocked at how different he sounded compared with traditional portrayals of the king on stage and screen.
The coach and actor also examined the king’s letters and diary so that “as you pronounced a word that’s how you would write it”.
History fans at the unveiling were delighted with the accent, with one telling Sky News: “Northerners are known to be happy, positive, all those lovely qualities.”
Born in Northampton but a northerner through and through, technology has brought the king’s speech back to life
South Yorkshire Police have warned pet owners to “step up before someone dies” after receiving 13 reports of dangerous dogs in less than 48 hours.
One man was attacked by his own American bulldog in Sheffield on Thursday afternoon, the force said, when he attempted to separate it and a pocket bully inside a property.
The owner suffered lacerations to his face, neck and head, and was taken to hospital, while his dog was seized and remains in police kennels.
Warning: Distressing images below
Another incident saw a woman walking home with her baby in a carrier on her chest, when she was approached by a loose XL bully who began to show aggression and jump up to her baby.
An elderly woman and her grandchild were attacked by another loose dog in Sheffield.
“As dogs causing harm and fear in our communities continues to place significant demand on our force, we’re urging owners to step up, before someone dies,” South Yorkshire Police said in a statement.
More on Dogs
Related Topics:
The warning comes after 10-year-old Savannah Bentham was killed at her family’s home in North Yorkshire by their dog on 1 November.
Chief Inspector Emma Cheney, leading the work on dangerous dogs across South Yorkshire, said: “Recently we have sadly seen another fatal incident in the UK of a dog causing death.
“People think it won’t happen to them, that their dog won’t cause harm, but it can happen to anyone. Any dog can cause fear and harm and owners who do not step up and prevent harm to our communities will not be tolerated.
“You are responsible for your dog’s actions, and we continue to put people before the courts.
“We only have a limited number of resources, attending dangerous dog incidents takes officers away from other calls. If every owner steps up and makes small changes, we can make a difference.”