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The largest U.S. military leak in a decade is a serious blow to Ukraine’s war effort, creating an intelligence threat for that country’s forces ahead of an expected counteroffensive this spring. 

Classified documents leaked on social media offer extensive details about munitions, training and air defense systems at a critical point in the fight. The Pentagon is still reviewing the validity of the documents.

Dozens of classified U.S. and NATO documents, some labeled “Top Secret,” began leaking in more obscure parts of the internet in January before spilling over to Twitter and Telegram and picking up attention last week.

While they only provide a status of the conflict up to March, the material does reveal insight into Ukraine’s military capabilities, including battalion sizes, training on advanced weaponry and deployment of heavy combat vehicles, such as Leopard II tanks.

They also give a view into Kyiv’s shortcomings, with at least one document describing how the country could soon run out of munitions for Soviet-era anti-air missile systems, exposing a potential vulnerability in Ukraine’s air defense systems.

Kurt Volker, a distinguished fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis, said the leak is worrying because it gives the world a “snapshot” of U.S. assessments and judgements on the war in Ukraine.

“It is signaling to Ukrainians, to Russians, to others, ‘Here’s what we’re thinking,’” Volker said, and it “may give some clues as to the quality of our information, where we’re getting it from … which will cause the people we’re collecting on to shut that down.”

Perhaps the most alarming leak contains information on the Ukrainian air defenses.

One document, dated in February, says missiles for the S300 will run out by May, while the SA-11 Gadfly missile system will be depleted by the end of March. Both systems make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s air defenses, according to NATO, and are crucial in fending off frequent Russian missile strikes.

Russian military bloggers have already widely spread the leaked documents, including those estimating how many air defense systems and aircraft such as fighter jets are deployed by Ukraine.

NATO’s assessment also says Ukraine could withstand only a few more waves of Russian missile strikes, while providing a map of where its air defense systems are.

John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, referred to the information on Ukraine’s air defenses as the “most unfortunate” part of the leaked documents.

But he said none of the documents contain any critical information not already known by NATO allies and Russian intelligence.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that some damage has been done to Ukraine’s war effort as a result of leaks,” he said. “But was the damage overwhelming? Probably not.”

Other documents explain the strength and capabilities of Ukrainian brigades, as well as which weapons systems Ukraine has trained on. One February document estimates the number of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery units fielded by Ukraine.

Moscow has been unusually quiet on the leaks, though state-run news outlet TASS published the details of the documents. 

Russian military bloggers appear to be skeptical, with one account, the War Chronicle, pointing out misspellings and errors in the material.

Rybar, a blogger with more than 1 million followers on Telegram, called it “a controlled leak and a massive disinformation campaign” to make Ukrainians look unprepared and ultimately encourage Russia to make a mistake.

The leak is also worrying for the U.S. because Russia could figure out how the Pentagon is collecting crucial intelligence on Russian forces and capabilities.

The documents contain information on not only Ukraine’s forces but also a detailed assessment on Russia’s army, from tanks to artillery and aircraft.

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in an email that the leaks could “lead Russia to tighten its communications security, reducing our knowledge of their next moves.”

It’s unclear how many documents are currently circulating across the internet, but at least 100 separate documents have appeared online, according to several reports and analysts.

The Pentagon on Monday declined to comment on the size and scope of the leak, revealing that the Defense Department was still investigating the matter.

“The Department of Defense is working around the clock to look at the scope and scale of the distribution, the assessed impact and our mitigation measures,” Chris Meagher, assistant to the secretary of Defense for public affairs, told reporters.  

“We’re still investigating how this happened, as well as the scope of the issue. There have been steps to take a closer look at how this type of information is distributed and to whom. We’re also still trying to assess what might be out there,” he added. 

Meagher also revealed that the format of the documents are “similar in format to those used to provide daily updates to our senior leaders on Ukraine and Russia-related operations, as well as other intelligence updates,” and “present a very serious risk to national security.”

Investigative group Bellingcat traced the documents back to a leak in early March through a channel on Discord, a website where users discuss topics, primarily gaming. 

Ten of the documents appeared on a Discord channel related to the popular video game “Minecraft” in the earliest verified leak, but Bellingcat said there may have been leaks as early as January on a separate Discord server.

The Pentagon last week said it was reviewing the document leaks and had turned over a formal criminal investigation of them to the Department of Justice. U.S. officials on Monday said the investigation was a “top priority” and urged caution when studying the documents, noting some of them have been altered. Ukrainian prime minister arrives in DC at make-or-break moment ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies

The Defense Department did not identify how many have been altered. But a document that gained attention last week inflated the number of Ukrainians killed in action and drastically reduced the number of Russian casualties in the war.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, has called the intelligence leaks an attempt to “divert attention” and “sow discord” among Western allies.

Also on Monday, the Pentagon would not explain whether more documents are likely to appear online and how many officials in the Defense Department had access to these documents. Officials say the leak has prompted the department to take steps to review how some classified information is shared and to whom.

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Tulip Siddiq could lose job if found she broke rules amid housing allegations, cabinet member suggests

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Tulip Siddiq could lose job if found she broke rules amid housing allegations, cabinet member suggests

Anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq could lose her job if the investigation into her properties finds she broke government rules, a cabinet member has suggested.

Science Secretary Peter Kyle was asked about Ms Siddiq on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.

She has referred herself to the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministers’ interests, Sir Laurie Magnus, following reports she lived in properties in London linked to allies of her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, the deposed prime minister of Bangladesh.

There have also been questions about trips she took to Russia alongside her aunt.

Ms Siddiq insists she has “done nothing wrong”.

As economic secretary to the Treasury, Ms Siddiq oversees anti-corruption efforts in the financial sector as part of her brief.

Mr Kyle told Sky News: “With Tulip, she’s referred herself straight away to this.

“There is a process under way and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”

He gave this answer after Trevor pointed out Labour would have been calling for a sacking if the roles were reversed and the Tories were in power.

Read more:
Siddiq refers herself to ethics watchdog
Minister caught up in anti-corruption probe

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‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’

Mr Kyle contrasted his party’s stance with the Conservative one – saying he called for an investigation into allegations of bullying from Priti Patel, and she “had to be dragged to that inquiry”.

He added that he let the inquiry pan out.

“The results came out, she was found guilty, and no action happened,” Mr Kyle said.

His response came after Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for Ms Siddiq to be sacked yesterday.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride repeated the calls today to Sky News.

He said: “What is not right is that the prime minister is not moving her out of that position and getting her to step down

“Because she is the anti-corruption minister, she has serious charges laid against her now, or serious accusations around corruption, and it’s going to be really impossible for her to do that job under current circumstances.

“So she should step down, and the prime minister needs to get a grip of that.”

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The Sunday Times this week interviewed the current leader of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, who called for Ms Siddiq to be investigated.

He said the properties should be handed back to his government if they were acquired through “plain robbery”.

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Rachel Reeves says budget ‘non-negotiable’ on China trip – as former PM says she’s been ‘rumbled’ by market turmoil

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Rachel Reeves says budget 'non-negotiable' on China trip - as former PM says she's been 'rumbled' by market turmoil

The chancellor has said the budget is “non-negotiable” on a visit to China in the face of volatile markets back in the UK.

Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.

The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.

The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.

Former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.

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Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, right, visits a Brompton flagship store in Beijing, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. (Jade Gao/Pool Photo via AP)
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The chancellor visits a Brompton bike shop in Beijing. Pic: AP

However, during a visit to Beijing’s flagship store of UK bike maker Brompton, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability.

“Growth is the number one mission of this government,” she said.

“The fiscal rules laid out in the budget are non-negotiable. Economic stability is the bedrock for economic growth and prosperity.”

The treasury added that making Britain better off will be at the “forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit.

She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.

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The chancellor is being accompanied by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other senior executives.

UK and China selling new economic relationship as a win-win – but it’s complicated

Nicole Johnston

Asia correspondent

@nicole_reporter

The UK has laid out a new economic relationship with China, and to use one of China’s favourite phrases, both countries are selling it as a “win-win” situation.

It’s a significant development in restoring ties between the countries. The relationship has been beset by years of tension and suspicion. Both sides want to get it back on track.

China delivered a warm welcome for the chancellor.

Rachel Reeves was shuttled from a Beijing Brompton bike shop, to the Great Hall of the People and on to a state guest house.

China’s vice premier He Lifeng said: “The outcomes we have agreed today represent pragmatic co-operation in action.”

Pragmatic. There is that word again. Chancellor Reeves uttered it four times in her closing statement.

Despite the bonhomie, China is still likely to view these British overtures with caution.

Read more here

She met her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Beijing on Saturday to discuss financial services, trade and investment, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.

She will also “raise difficult issues”, including Chinese firms supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns over constraints on rights and freedoms in Hong Kong, the Treasury said.

But it did not mention whether Ms Reeves would raise the treatment of the Uyghur community, which Downing Street said Foreign Secretary David Lammy would do during his visit last year.

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands before their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. Pic: AP
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Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Pic: AP

On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.

“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.

“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”

Ed Conway analysis: The chancellor’s gamble with China

Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor’s controversial China trip


Amanda Akass is a politics and business correspondent

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

Rachel Reeves’s trip to China – the first by a British chancellor since 2019 – was always going to be controversial.

In recent years Conservative governments have been keeping Beijing at arm’s length – amid concern about espionage, the situation in Hong Kong, and the treatment of the Uyghurs.

David Cameron’s so-called “Golden Era” of engagement in the pursuit of economic investment, notoriously capped by a visit to an Oxfordshire pub for a pint with President Xi Jinping – has been widely written off as a naive mistake.

There are many – not least the incoming US President Donald Trump – who believe we should maintain our distance.

But in another era of economic turmoil, the pursuit of growth is the government’s number one priority.

This week’s difficult market news – with the cost of government borrowing surging, and the value of the pound falling – has thoroughly raised the stakes.

Read more here

It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.

Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.

Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.

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How much do we trade with China?

Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.

During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.

The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.

Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”

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Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor Rachel Reeves’s controversial China trip

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Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor Rachel Reeves's controversial China trip

Rachel Reeves’s trip to China – the first by a British chancellor since 2019 – was always going to be controversial.

In recent years Conservative governments have been keeping Beijing at arm’s length – amid concern about espionage, the situation in Hong Kong, and the treatment of the Uyghurs.

David Cameron‘s so-called “Golden Era” of engagement in the pursuit of economic investment, notoriously capped by a visit to an Oxfordshire pub for a pint with President Xi Jinping – has been widely written off as a naive mistake.

There are many – not least the incoming US President Donald Trump – who believe we should maintain our distance.

But in another era of economic turmoil, the pursuit of growth is the government’s number one priority.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, right, visits a Brompton flagship store in Beijing, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. (Jade Gao/Pool Photo via AP)
Image:
Rachel Reeves visits a Beijing bike shop. Pic: AP

This week’s difficult market news – with the cost of government borrowing surging, and the value of the pound falling – has thoroughly raised the stakes.

Both the Tories and the Lib Dems argued the visit should be cancelled.

More on China

Prominent China hawk and former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith MP summed up both arguments against it.

“The trip is pointless,” he wrote on X. “As the disastrous ‘Golden Era’ showed, the murderous, brutal, law-breaking, communist regime in China will not deliver the growth the Labour government craves.

“Instead, she should stay home and try to sort out the awful mess her budget has created.”

President Xi Jinping and David Cameron at the Plough pub
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President Xi Jinping and David Cameron in 2015. Pic: PA

Yet cancelling the trip would have been a diplomatic disaster and far from adding to economic stability would surely have spread a sense of crisis (with inevitable comparisons to Denis Healey’s abandoned visit to Hong Kong in 1976, months before he was forced to apply from an emergency loan from the IMF to save the pound from collapse).

Instead, the government argues the current market situation is a result of “global trends”, and Reeves insists she will be sticking to the decisions taken in the budget.

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“Growth is the number one mission of this government. The fiscal rules laid out in the budget are non-negotiable. Economic stability is the bedrock for economic growth and prosperity.”

Improving the UK/China relationship should “boost our economic growth for the benefit of working people in both of our countries” she said during her meeting with vice premier He Lifeng.

In a speech to media afterwards, Reeves was delighted to announce a big, concrete number to justify the value of the trip, claiming the agreements reached would be worth £600m to the UK economy over five years.

Pragmatism is the new order of the day. Labour argues re-establishing “pragmatic engagement” with China is in the national interest, and it’s a word Reeves used four times in five minutes during her speech.

Ed Conway analysis: The chancellor’s gamble with China

The government insists this new closer relationship will make it easier for them to raise tricky issues and we did hear the chancellor flagging concerns about Hong Kong and the role of China in connection with Russia’s war in Ukraine – though not the Uyghurs, or the imprisoned British citizen and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai.

The challenge going forward will be to show that cosying up to China is worth it.

There’s a lot riding on it for the chancellor – with questions being openly asked about her economic strategy given the growing likelihood that to meet her fiscal rules on balancing tax and spending she will be forced to make deep cuts to government departments this spring.

We are promised a big speech from the chancellor on the government’s plans for growth in the coming weeks.

In many ways, the trip to China may have been a welcome break from the difficult decisions which await her return.

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