World economy entering ‘perilous phase’ with UK to perform worst in G7 this year, IMF says
The world economy is entering a “perilous phase” of low economic growth and high financial risk, the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest set of assessments.
The IMF, which is holding its spring meetings in Washington this week, downgraded its outlook for global growth and said its medium term forecast for economic output was now at the weakest level since the fund began publishing these forecasts in 1990.
However its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas added that there were also more severe risks in prospect.
He said: “We are… entering a perilous phase during which economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have risen, yet inflation has not yet decisively turned the corner.”
“Below the surface,” he added, “turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us.
“Inflation is much stickier than anticipated even a few months ago. While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, excluding the volatile energy and food components, has not yet peaked in many countries.”
This cocktail of factors prompted the IMF to cut its forecast for global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points this year and next, to 2.8% and 3% respectively.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Is Brexit to blame? The war in Ukraine? Ed Conway at the end of January taking a look at the IMF predicting the UK economy would end up behind advanced nations this year
However, the fund said that there was now a one-in-four chance of global growth falling below 2% this year, something tantamount to a global recession, and which has only happened five times since 1970 (most recently in 2009 and 2020).
The UK has received an upgrade to its economic growth forecast this year and next, but it is nonetheless forecast to be the worst performing economy in the G7 this year, shrinking by 0.3%. UK gross domestic product is slated to rise to 1% next year.
The fund’s warnings follow the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Europe, episodes which have raised the prospect of further financial turbulence in the coming months, as the system responds to rising interest rates.
In the World Economic Outlook, Mr Gourinchas referred to the troubles in the UK pensions market following last September’s mini-budget, saying: “The financial instability last fall in the gilt market in the United Kingdom and the recent banking turbulence in the United States with the collapse of a few regional banks illustrate that significant vulnerabilities exist both among banks and non-bank financial institutions.
“In both cases the authorities took quick and strong action and have been able to contain the spread of the crisis so far. Yet the financial system may well be tested again.”
Yet alongside these immediate concerns, there is another worry haunting policymakers as they gather in Washington for this six-monthly set of meetings: that the global economy may have lost some of its mojo.
The decline in the long term global growth rate in this latest forecast is in part down to “benign” factors – among them the fact that countries like China, which have driven global growth for more than a decade, are becoming higher income nations, with an inherently slower growth rate.
Read more business news:
CBI boss Tony Danker sacked over ‘conduct at work’
UK to see return of ultra-low interest rates, IMF says
But the other worry they have is that the world is beginning to deglobalise, with many countries unravelling their supply chains and introducing new trade barriers.
Those barriers, which are rising faster than ever before, could constrict global productivity, implying weaker growth for the long run.
Responding to the IMF statement Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:
“Thanks to the steps we have taken, the OBR [Office of Budget Responsibility] says the UK will avoid recession, and our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.
“The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.”
Jeffrey Epstein led two different lives – sex offender and celebrity networker – and he did that in the UK as well as the US.
The newly released Epstein documents reveal, in particular, how the paedophile financier ascended into the highest levels of British society.
This photo of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor sprawled across the lap of several women, whose identities have been protected, speaks to his close relationship with Epstein’s former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who was jailed for child sex trafficking and other offences in connection with Epstein. But the furnishings are even more revealing.
Epstein files – latest updates
Andrew Mountbatten Windsor pictured with Ghislaine Maxwell. Note: inclusion in Epstein files does not infer wrongdoing
Sky News matched the fireplace in this photo with the one in Sandringham, the estate where the royals tend to spend Christmas – (Andrew is not invited this year).
Andrew has vigorously denied any accusations against him.
Prince Charles, now King Charles III, at Sandringham with Prince Edward. Pic: PA
Also included in the latest release are Epstein’s flight records. They provide some useful corroborating evidence.
A flight log from the Epstein files
On 9 March 2001, his plane landed at “EGGW” – Luton Airport – with JE, GM and VR on board – Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell and Virginia Roberts, better known by her married name of Virginia Giuffre and perhaps Epstein’s most famous accuser.
The next day is when this photo was alleged to have been taken, in London, of Giuffre and Andrew.
Prince Andrew, Virginia Roberts, aged 17, and Ghislaine Maxwell at Ghislaine Maxwell’s townhouse in London, in March 2001
Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell hunting, date unknown. Pic: US DoJ
Other photos show Maxwell on the steps of Downing Street – and power was as much a draw as celebrity.
Ghislaine Maxwell outside 10 Downing Street, date unknown. Pic: US DoJ
On 15 May 2002, the flight records show Epstein again arriving at Luton.
A flight log from the Epstein files
The next day is when he met Tony Blair, prime minister at the time. This was before Epstein’s first arrest and there is no suggestion of wrongdoing.
Read more:
New photos of Jeffrey Epstein’s circle released
Ghislaine Maxwell sex trafficking case material to be released
The meeting was arranged by Peter Mandelson, who lost his job as ambassador to the US because of his Epstein connections, and who features prominently in the files.
Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein. Pic: US DoJ
The UK was a draw for Epstein’s wider circle too – Maxwell here is pictured touring the Churchill War Rooms with Bill Clinton and Kevin Spacey. Neither are accused of wrongdoing or knowledge of Epstein’s crimes.
(L-R) Ghislaine Maxwell, Kevin Spacey and Bill Clinton, with three other men. Pic: US DoJ
And the other grim life that Epstein led, of sex trafficking, also had British links.
A page from the Epstein files
Another document released in the files, from 2019, shows witness testimony from Maxwell’s trial. In it, a victim is mentioned who is “17 years old” and who grew up “in England”. She would later be taken to Epstein’s private Caribbean island.
Police have announced a £20,000 reward in the hunt for the killers of a man in north London in March.
Mahad Abdi Mohamed, 27, died after being shot in the head in Waverley Road, Tottenham at 8.45pm on 20 March, the Metropolitan Police said.
The Met, which announced the reward from the independent charity Crimestoppers, said officers believed the shooting was a case of mistaken identity.
Police now want to speak to two people in connection with the incident.
DCI Rebecca Woodsford, who is leading the investigation, said: “There is someone out there who knows what happened that night, and we are urging those individuals to find it in their heart to come forward. It could be exactly what we need to locate those responsible.”
Images of the two people police would like to speak to. Pics: Metropolitan Police
A targeted attack
Police believe the suspects, who got out of a stolen Mitsubishi Outlander, which was later recovered burned out, were taking part in a targeted attack.
On the night of the murder, Mahad had spent the early evening with his friend at their home.
They were breaking their fast outside when the Mitsubishi Outlander approached and the suspects opened fire, striking Mahad and his friend multiple times.
Mahad’s 26-year-old friend received treatment for a gunshot wound to his leg.
The force suspects another stolen vehicle, a blue Jaguar, was used to transport the suspects to and from the Mitsubishi.
Read more from Sky News:
Driver guilty of murder in Christmas Day rampage
Ukraine “hits Russian tanker in Mediterranean Sea for first time”
The stolen cars from the night. Pics: Metropolitan Police
Police arrested four adult men in March and April on suspicion of murder, who were subsequently bailed.
The investigation so far has led officers to believe whoever killed Mahad set out to hurt someone else in a pre-planned, targeted attack.
Appealing to the public for information, Mahad’s youngest sister said: “To stay silent is to be complicit. To stay silent is to let a grieving mother suffer in confusion. To stay silent is to let a little boy grow up not knowing what happened to his father.”
Pic: Metropolitan Police
The reward, which is offered for information that leads to the identification, arrest and prosecution of those responsible, is available for three months and is due to expire on 20 March 2026.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment3 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024