World economy entering ‘perilous phase’ with UK to perform worst in G7 this year, IMF says
The world economy is entering a “perilous phase” of low economic growth and high financial risk, the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest set of assessments.
The IMF, which is holding its spring meetings in Washington this week, downgraded its outlook for global growth and said its medium term forecast for economic output was now at the weakest level since the fund began publishing these forecasts in 1990.
However its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas added that there were also more severe risks in prospect.
He said: “We are… entering a perilous phase during which economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have risen, yet inflation has not yet decisively turned the corner.”
“Below the surface,” he added, “turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us.
“Inflation is much stickier than anticipated even a few months ago. While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, excluding the volatile energy and food components, has not yet peaked in many countries.”
This cocktail of factors prompted the IMF to cut its forecast for global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points this year and next, to 2.8% and 3% respectively.
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Is Brexit to blame? The war in Ukraine? Ed Conway at the end of January taking a look at the IMF predicting the UK economy would end up behind advanced nations this year
However, the fund said that there was now a one-in-four chance of global growth falling below 2% this year, something tantamount to a global recession, and which has only happened five times since 1970 (most recently in 2009 and 2020).
The UK has received an upgrade to its economic growth forecast this year and next, but it is nonetheless forecast to be the worst performing economy in the G7 this year, shrinking by 0.3%. UK gross domestic product is slated to rise to 1% next year.
The fund’s warnings follow the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Europe, episodes which have raised the prospect of further financial turbulence in the coming months, as the system responds to rising interest rates.
In the World Economic Outlook, Mr Gourinchas referred to the troubles in the UK pensions market following last September’s mini-budget, saying: “The financial instability last fall in the gilt market in the United Kingdom and the recent banking turbulence in the United States with the collapse of a few regional banks illustrate that significant vulnerabilities exist both among banks and non-bank financial institutions.
“In both cases the authorities took quick and strong action and have been able to contain the spread of the crisis so far. Yet the financial system may well be tested again.”
Yet alongside these immediate concerns, there is another worry haunting policymakers as they gather in Washington for this six-monthly set of meetings: that the global economy may have lost some of its mojo.
The decline in the long term global growth rate in this latest forecast is in part down to “benign” factors – among them the fact that countries like China, which have driven global growth for more than a decade, are becoming higher income nations, with an inherently slower growth rate.
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But the other worry they have is that the world is beginning to deglobalise, with many countries unravelling their supply chains and introducing new trade barriers.
Those barriers, which are rising faster than ever before, could constrict global productivity, implying weaker growth for the long run.
Responding to the IMF statement Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:
“Thanks to the steps we have taken, the OBR [Office of Budget Responsibility] says the UK will avoid recession, and our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.
“The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.”
UK
Harshita Brella: International manhunt under way for husband after woman’s body found in car boot
An international manhunt is under way for the husband of a murdered woman, whose body was found in the boot of a car.
The body of Harshita Brella was found in east London on Thursday, tens of miles away from her home in Corby.
On Sunday, Northamptonshire Police said they were looking for Pankaj Lamba – who they believe has left the country.
Sky News understands she had been under the protection of a court order designed for victims of domestic abuse.
“Our inquiries lead us to suspect that Harshita was murdered in Northamptonshire earlier this month by her husband Pankaj Lamba,” said chief inspector Paul Cash.
“We suspect Lamba transported Harshita’s body from Northamptonshire to Ilford by car.”
“Fast track” enquires were made after the force was contacted on Wednesday by someone concerned about Ms Brella’s welfare. After she failed to answer the door at her home in Skegness Walk, Corby, a missing person investigation was launched.
Her body was found inside the boot of a vehicle on Brisbane Road, Ilford, in the early hours of Thursday morning.
A post mortem – conducted at Leicester Royal Infirmary on Friday – established she had been murdered.
Harshita Brella, 24, from Corby. Her body was found in a car in east London. Pic: Northamptonshire Police
More than 60 detectives are working on the case, with lines of enquiry including going house to house and property searches, as well as looking at CCTV and ANPR.
“We are of course continuing to appeal for any information that will help us piece together exactly what happened as we work to get justice for Harshita,” said chief inspector Cash.
“I urge anyone listening to or reading this statement, that if you saw anything suspicious in the past week or have any information, no matter how small, please contact us. We would always rather receive well-meaning information that turns out to be nothing as opposed to not receiving it all.”
Pankaj Lamba. Pic: Northamptonshire Police
Force referred to police watchdog
On Saturday, Northamptonshire Police said it had made a mandatory referral to the Independent Office for Police Conduct due to previous contact between the force and the victim.
Northamptonshire Police previously said officers had been conducting investigations at three locations: Skegness Walk and Sturton Walk in Corby and Brisbane Road, Ilford, where Ms Brella’s body was found.
East Midlands Special Operations Major Crime Unit (EMSOU) and Northamptonshire Police said they were working “around the clock to establish the circumstances behind her death, including the exact location and timeframe in which it took place”.
State-of-the-art technology has been used to create a voice for King Richard III – giving him a Yorkshire accent.
A digital avatar of the medieval king’s head went on display in front of excited history fans at York Theatre Royal.
Richard III was king of England from 1483 until his death at the Battle of Bosworth in 1485, at the age of 32.
His remains were found in a car park in Leicester in 2012 by historian Philippa Langley.
Speaking about the recreation, she said: “We’ve got leading experts in their fields who have been working on this for 10 years and so everything has been meticulously researched, meticulously evidenced, so you are seeing the most accurate portrayal of Richard III”.
A team based at Face Lab at Liverpool John Moores University created the avatar based on the reconstruction of Richard III’s head with the help of a craniofacial expert.
Experts from various fields helped put the pieces of the puzzle together, including speech and language therapy, dentistry, forensic psychology and archaeology.
His voice has been created by Professor David Crystal, a leading linguist in 15th-century pronunciation. He admitted that it’s impossible to know exactly how he spoke, but this is as close as they will get.
The king was born in Northampton but spent a lot of his life in Yorkshire. His parents were also from the north of England.
Vocal coach Yvonne Morley-Chisholm spent a decade researching how the monarch would have sounded. She worked with the actor Thomas Dennis who was chosen as his body and face were such a good physical match.
Speaking to Sky News, she said people will be shocked at how different he sounded compared with traditional portrayals of the king on stage and screen.
The coach and actor also examined the king’s letters and diary so that “as you pronounced a word that’s how you would write it”.
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The voice shows the change in pronunciation over the centuries – from regional variations to the Queen’s English.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
History fans at the unveiling were delighted with the accent, with one telling Sky News: “Northerners are known to be happy, positive, all those lovely qualities.”
Born in Northampton but a northerner through and through, technology has brought the king’s speech back to life
South Yorkshire Police have warned pet owners to “step up before someone dies” after receiving 13 reports of dangerous dogs in less than 48 hours.
One man was attacked by his own American bulldog in Sheffield on Thursday afternoon, the force said, when he attempted to separate it and a pocket bully inside a property.
The owner suffered lacerations to his face, neck and head, and was taken to hospital, while his dog was seized and remains in police kennels.
Warning: Distressing images below
Another incident saw a woman walking home with her baby in a carrier on her chest, when she was approached by a loose XL bully who began to show aggression and jump up to her baby.
An elderly woman and her grandchild were attacked by another loose dog in Sheffield.
“As dogs causing harm and fear in our communities continues to place significant demand on our force, we’re urging owners to step up, before someone dies,” South Yorkshire Police said in a statement.
Some of the injuries caused by the American bulldog attack. Pic: South Yorkshire Police
The warning comes after 10-year-old Savannah Bentham was killed at her family’s home in North Yorkshire by their dog on 1 November.
Read more:
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Chief Inspector Emma Cheney, leading the work on dangerous dogs across South Yorkshire, said: “Recently we have sadly seen another fatal incident in the UK of a dog causing death.
“People think it won’t happen to them, that their dog won’t cause harm, but it can happen to anyone. Any dog can cause fear and harm and owners who do not step up and prevent harm to our communities will not be tolerated.
“You are responsible for your dog’s actions, and we continue to put people before the courts.
“We only have a limited number of resources, attending dangerous dog incidents takes officers away from other calls. If every owner steps up and makes small changes, we can make a difference.”
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