The world economy is entering a “perilous phase” of low economic growth and high financial risk, the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest set of assessments.
The IMF, which is holding its spring meetings in Washington this week, downgraded its outlook for global growth and said its medium term forecast for economic output was now at the weakest level since the fund began publishing these forecasts in 1990.
However its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas added that there were also more severe risks in prospect.
He said: “We are… entering a perilous phase during which economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have risen, yet inflation has not yet decisively turned the corner.”
“Below the surface,” he added, “turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us.
“Inflation is much stickier than anticipated even a few months ago. While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, excluding the volatile energy and food components, has not yet peaked in many countries.”
This cocktail of factors prompted the IMF to cut its forecast for global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points this year and next, to 2.8% and 3% respectively.
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Is Brexit to blame? The war in Ukraine? Ed Conway at the end of January taking a look at the IMF predicting the UK economy would end up behind advanced nations this year
However, the fund said that there was now a one-in-four chance of global growth falling below 2% this year, something tantamount to a global recession, and which has only happened five times since 1970 (most recently in 2009 and 2020).
The UK has received an upgrade to its economic growth forecast this year and next, but it is nonetheless forecast to be the worst performing economy in the G7 this year, shrinking by 0.3%. UK gross domestic product is slated to rise to 1% next year.
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The fund’s warnings follow the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Europe, episodes which have raised the prospect of further financial turbulence in the coming months, as the system responds to rising interest rates.
In the World Economic Outlook, Mr Gourinchas referred to the troubles in the UK pensions market following last September’s mini-budget, saying: “The financial instability last fall in the gilt market in the United Kingdom and the recent banking turbulence in the United States with the collapse of a few regional banks illustrate that significant vulnerabilities exist both among banks and non-bank financial institutions.
“In both cases the authorities took quick and strong action and have been able to contain the spread of the crisis so far. Yet the financial system may well be tested again.”
Yet alongside these immediate concerns, there is another worry haunting policymakers as they gather in Washington for this six-monthly set of meetings: that the global economy may have lost some of its mojo.
The decline in the long term global growth rate in this latest forecast is in part down to “benign” factors – among them the fact that countries like China, which have driven global growth for more than a decade, are becoming higher income nations, with an inherently slower growth rate.
But the other worry they have is that the world is beginning to deglobalise, with many countries unravelling their supply chains and introducing new trade barriers.
Those barriers, which are rising faster than ever before, could constrict global productivity, implying weaker growth for the long run.
Responding to the IMF statement Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:
“Thanks to the steps we have taken, the OBR [Office of Budget Responsibility] says the UK will avoid recession, and our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.
“The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.”
Chrystal Hendry finished her psychology degree in 2021 and was excited to move to the next phase of her life – working towards becoming a counsellor – when she first became homeless.
Chrystal, 30, has spinal muscular atrophy and uses a wheelchair. She needs round-the-clock care, as well as home adaptations, such as a bed hoist and wet room, to live comfortably.
Several months after being evicted in 2021, and following a “really awful” period in inappropriate housing, she managed to find somewhere to rent in a different town, where she now lives.
It has never been the ideal home – the temporary ramps are a struggle. But it was better than the alternatives suggested by her council, including moving her live-in care team and equipment into one bedroom in an elderly dementia care home.
Four years on, she’s being evicted again.
Chrystal is one of the 70,000 households with a physical disability in England now facing homelessness.
Her landlord wants to redevelop the home she lives in and has issued a ‘no fault’ eviction notice, which has progressed to a court repossession order.
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Now, she’s waiting for the bailiffs to arrive.
“It just never ended, it’s still not ended four years later. I still can’t even think about building a career or giving back to anybody because I’m so consumed with it,” Chrystal told Sky News.
“At this moment in time, I have no idea where I’m going to go,” she said.
“For anybody a bailiff knocking on your door is scary, but when you’ve got fundamental pieces of equipment that you cannot live without it’s even scarier.”
Chrystal’s experience is not unique.
Among households who approached their local council for homelessness assistance in the latest year, one in five had physical ill health and disability support needs.
It’s a growing issue – there were nearly 70,000 such households in 2024/25, up from around 40,000 four years earlier, according to Sky News analysis of government data.
This represents a 72% increase, more than three times the 20% rise in the overall number of households seeking homelessness support.
The number of homeless or at-risk households with a physical disability support need increased more than any other demographic over the period.
They now represent 21% of households, up from 13% of households in 2020/21.
Councils ‘not taking it seriously’
Sky News and housing campaigner Kwajo Tweneboa sent Freedom of Information requests to English councils asking how many people were waiting for accessible social housing, and how long they wait on average.
Their responses reveal a troubling lack of understanding of accessible housing needs in their areas.
Two in three couldn’t say how many people with disabilities were waiting, while four in five weren’t able to estimate how long they could expect to wait.
Kensington and Chelsea Council disclosed one of the longest waits among those who did respond.
It said people waited more than six and a half years for accessible social housing, a year and three months longer than for one-bedroom properties.
But we don’t have the full picture, as most simply couldn’t provide figures.
“The fact most didn’t provide data on this issue shows the lack of seriousness shown towards those with disabilities and their needs,” Mr Tweneboa said.
“All it takes is for any of us to have an accident and we may need those services.
“We also have an ageing population; no doubt more and more people are going to have additional needs,” he added.
Image: Kwajo Tweneboa says councils’ poor response shows a ‘lack of seriousness’
There are five million more people in the UK with a disability than there were a decade ago, according to the government’s Family Resources Survey.
Mobility issues are most common, affecting just under half of those with a disability.
Home builders bypassing ‘very simple things’
“We currently do not have enough accessible homes here in England,” Millie Brown, deputy director for the homes team at the Centre for Ageing Better, told Sky News.
“We know that 20% of people are currently living with a disability, but only 13% of homes across England are built to accessibility standards which support them to live healthy and independent lives.
“Things such as step-free access to the home, a toilet on the ground level, doors that are wide enough to fit wheelchairs, for example.
“Very simple things that make it so disabled and older people can live in their homes independently.”
These criteria, alongside a ‘flush threshold’ – where the floor on either side of doorways are level – are outlined as the four basic criteria for accessibility, which 13% of homes in England meet as of the latest data for 2022.
It’s not always possible to retrofit existing homes to these standards, but campaigners argue they should be mandatory for new-build properties.
Plans under the previous government to raise accessibility standards for new homes never materialised and there has been a “lack of action from both the previous government and the current government”, said Ms Brown.
Image: Millie Brown from the Centre for Ageing Better says we don’t have enough accessible housing for those who need it
‘Couldn’t even get through the door’
Many councils told us they operate a “choice-based letting system” – meaning people waiting for social housing can bid for properties that suit their needs – but that they don’t actively monitor applicants’ accessibility requirements.
Constantly bidding for properties can be an exhausting process, especially for someone like Chrystal.
After her first eviction, when she was on North Hertfordshire’s housing register, she said she bid for over 100 properties but only secured viewings at six.
“None of them were accessible in any shape or form,” she said.
“In five of them I couldn’t get through the front door. Only one of the properties was adapted, but they told me my needs weren’t enough, so I was turned down.”
Image: Only one property Chrystal viewed was adapted – but the council turned her down
Now, she doesn’t even have the luxury of joining a housing register.
Because she moved to a different local authority in 2022 in search of housing, she is now ineligible for support in either her old area, where she hasn’t lived recently enough, or her new one, where she hasn’t lived for long enough.
‘Affordability problems compounded’
“The picture across the board is that it’s a struggle for everyone at the moment to find a suitable rented home,” Deborah Garvie, policy manager at Shelter, told Sky News.
She said the biggest difficulty is affordability, especially for those relying on housing benefit, which has been frozen and not kept up with inflation.
People with disabilities, or those caring for them, may be particularly affected as they are less likely to be working full time.
“There’s that big affordability problem which is likely to be compounded for people who either have disabilities themselves or have a household member with disabilities,” added Ms Garvie.
“And then on top of that you have the physical access problems as well.”
A parliamentary inquiry into disabled people in the housing sector ended earlier this year and the government has said it intends to set out policies on the accessibility of new homes soon.
A Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said: “Cases like Chrystal’s are unacceptable and is why we are taking urgent and decisive action to ban section 21 evictions, build 1.5 million new homes and give people housing security.
“Through our Plan for Change, we will build more accessible housing so everyone has a home that meets their needs, alongside delivering the biggest boost to social and affordable housing in a generation backed by £39bn investment.”
Broxbourne Council, which is responsible for housing in Chrystal’s area, responded: “At present, there are more than 1,600 households on the Housing Register.
“Ms Hendry has been provided with a personalised plan to support her to resolve her housing situation which acknowledges that specialist accommodation is required.
“It sets out what the council is doing to support Ms Hendry and also details other housing options that she can pursue.”
Chrystal acknowledges the council has given her a plan, but argues it doesn’t provide any real solutions.
“I’ve been told numerous times that they have no housing in the area,” she said.
“They have told me to look for places to rent, but finding private rentals that I can live in is like finding a needle in a haystack – and even if I do, housing benefit won’t cover it.
“I’m lucky enough that I can advocate for myself, but there are loads of people in my position that can’t do that.
“Trying to wade my way through these broken systems is upsetting and frustrating. I get angry because it seems like nobody wants to fix the problem.”
Production and additional reporting by Emily Jennings, social affairs producer.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
In a small hut next to Newlyn Harbour at the bottom of Cornwall, the next generation of fishermen are quite literally learning the ropes.
Around a dozen students are on the eighth day of a two-week intensive course to become commercial fishers.
From knot and ropework to chart plotting, navigation to sea survival, by the end of the course they’ll be qualified to take a berth on a vessel.
While many are following in the footsteps of their fathers, others are here to try an entirely different career.
Image: Elliot Fairbairn
Elliot Fairbairn, 28, is originally from London and has been working as a groundworker.
“I’m not from a fishing family – I just like a challenge,” he says.
He’s put his current job on hold to see how fishing works out.
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“It makes you feel good doing a hard job.I think that’s what’s getting lost these days, people want an easy job, easy money and they don’t understand what it takes to be successful. Sometimes you’ve got to put that in the work.”
Elliot already has a job lined up for next week on a ring-netter boat.
“I’m ecstatic – I’m very pumped!” he tells me.
Image: Students take part in a two-week intensive course to become commercial fishers
Also on the course is 17-year-old Oscar Ashby. He’s doing his A-Levels at Truro College and training to be a healthcare worker at the main hospital in Cornwall.
“I’m part of the staff bank so can work whatever hours I want – which would fit quite well if I wanted to do a week’s fishing,” he says.
It’s his love of being outside that has drawn him to get qualified.
“It’s hands-on, it’s not a bad way to make money. It’s one of the last jobs that is like being a hunter-gatherer really – everything else is really industrialised, ” Oscar says.
The course was over-subscribed.
The charity that runs it – Seafood Cornwall Training – could only offer places to half those who applied.
‘A foot in the door’
“The range of knowledge they’re gathering is everything from how to tie a few knots all the way on how to register with HMRC to pay and manage their tax because they’d be self-employed fishermen,” manager Clare Leverton tells me.
“What we’re trying to do with this course is give them a foot in the door.
“By meeting our tutors, skippers on the quay, vessel managers, they start to understand who they’re going to have to talk to to get jobs.”
Getting fresh blood into the industry is vital.
Over the last 30 years, the number of fishermen in the UK has nearly halved – from around 20,000 to 10,000.
The average age of a fisherman in the UK is 55.
Aging workforce
Image: Mike Cohen, chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations
“I think we’re seeing the effects of having an aging workforce,” says Mike Cohen, chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations (NFFO).
“Fishing is a traditional occupation in most places around the country. A lot of family businesses, and as people are getting older, they’re starting to retire out of the industry.”
The decline comes at a time of frustration and anger in the industry too.
Many feel the prime minister’s post-Brexit deal with the EU back in May sold fishing out by guaranteeing another 12 years of access to EU boats to fish in UK waters, rather than allowing it to be negotiated annually.
“A large part of the effort the EU exerts in UK waters is within our territorial waters, so within 12 miles of the shore. And that’s the area that’s most pressured,” adds Mr Cohen.
“For new people getting into the industry it’s the area that they can reach in the sort of small boats that new starters tend to work in. They’re increasingly pressured in that space and by keeping all of those European boats having access to it for free, for nothing, that puts them under even more pressure.”
The government says it will always back “our great British fishing industry” and insists the EU deal protects Britain’s fishing access.
‘A brilliant career’
To further promote getting young people into commercial fishing, the Cornwall Fish Producers Organisation has helped set up the Young Fishermen Network.
Skipper Tom Lambourne, 29, helped set up the group.
“There’s not enough young people coming into it and getting involved in it,” he says.
“It’s actually a brilliant career. It’s a hard career – you do have to sacrifice a lot to get a lot out of fishing – your time is one of them. But the pros of that certainly outweigh it and it’s a really good job.”
Image: Tom Lambourne, from the Young Fishermen Network
Tom says the network supports new fishers by holding social events and helping them find jobs: “There’s never been a collective for young fishermen.
“For a youngster getting into the fishing industry to be sort of part of that – knowing there’s other youngsters coming in in the same position – they can chat to one another, it’s pretty cool really.”
A body has been pulled from a river in the search for a missing 12-year-old boy.
The body was found in the River Swale in Richmond late Saturday, North Yorkshire Police said.
Police launched a search for the boy after receiving reports at 5pm that a boy had entered the river and not been seen since.
Specialist search teams as well as fire and rescue officers were deployed to help with the search, with crews “recovering a child’s body from the water” at 10.45pm.
“The body is yet to be identified, but the boy’s family have been informed and are receiving support from specially-trained officers,” police said in a statement.