The world economy is entering a “perilous phase” of low economic growth and high financial risk, the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest set of assessments.
The IMF, which is holding its spring meetings in Washington this week, downgraded its outlook for global growth and said its medium term forecast for economic output was now at the weakest level since the fund began publishing these forecasts in 1990.
However its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas added that there were also more severe risks in prospect.
He said: “We are… entering a perilous phase during which economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have risen, yet inflation has not yet decisively turned the corner.”
“Below the surface,” he added, “turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us.
“Inflation is much stickier than anticipated even a few months ago. While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, excluding the volatile energy and food components, has not yet peaked in many countries.”
This cocktail of factors prompted the IMF to cut its forecast for global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points this year and next, to 2.8% and 3% respectively.
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However, the fund said that there was now a one-in-four chance of global growth falling below 2% this year, something tantamount to a global recession, and which has only happened five times since 1970 (most recently in 2009 and 2020).
The UK has received an upgrade to its economic growth forecast this year and next, but it is nonetheless forecast to be the worst performing economy in the G7 this year, shrinking by 0.3%. UK gross domestic product is slated to rise to 1% next year.
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The fund’s warnings follow the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Europe, episodes which have raised the prospect of further financial turbulence in the coming months, as the system responds to rising interest rates.
In the World Economic Outlook, Mr Gourinchas referred to the troubles in the UK pensions market following last September’s mini-budget, saying: “The financial instability last fall in the gilt market in the United Kingdom and the recent banking turbulence in the United States with the collapse of a few regional banks illustrate that significant vulnerabilities exist both among banks and non-bank financial institutions.
“In both cases the authorities took quick and strong action and have been able to contain the spread of the crisis so far. Yet the financial system may well be tested again.”
Yet alongside these immediate concerns, there is another worry haunting policymakers as they gather in Washington for this six-monthly set of meetings: that the global economy may have lost some of its mojo.
The decline in the long term global growth rate in this latest forecast is in part down to “benign” factors – among them the fact that countries like China, which have driven global growth for more than a decade, are becoming higher income nations, with an inherently slower growth rate.
But the other worry they have is that the world is beginning to deglobalise, with many countries unravelling their supply chains and introducing new trade barriers.
Those barriers, which are rising faster than ever before, could constrict global productivity, implying weaker growth for the long run.
Responding to the IMF statement Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:
“Thanks to the steps we have taken, the OBR [Office of Budget Responsibility] says the UK will avoid recession, and our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.
“The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.”
An aid worker in Gaza has told Sky News the food situation in the enclave is “absolutely desperate” and “the worst it’s ever been”.
Her comments to chief presenter Mark Austincome amid fresh outcry over aid restrictions, with the UK joining 24 other countries to urge an immediate end to the war.
It also comes as at least 12 more Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded when tanks shelled a tent encampment in western Gaza City, according to health authorities.
Medics, speaking early on Tuesday, said two shells were fired at tents housing displaced people from tanks positioned north of the Shati camp.
Israel hasn’t yet commented on the reports.
Rachael Cummings, humanitarian director for Save The Children, spoke to Sky News from Deir al Balah, a city where tens of thousands of people have sought refuge during repeated waves of mass displacement.
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She said: “One of my colleagues said to me yesterday, ‘We are all walking together towards death’. And this is the situation now for people in Gaza.
“There is no food for their children, it’s absolutely desperate here.”
Image: Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen. Pic: Reuters
“The markets are empty,” she said. “People may even have cash in their pockets yet they cannot buy bread [or] vegetables.
“My team have said to me, ‘There’s nothing in my house to feed my children, my children are crying all day, every day.”
Israel launched a ground assault on southern and eastern Deir al Balah for the first time on Monday after having issued an evacuation order.
Local medics said at least three people were killed when houses and mosques were hit by tank shelling.
Sources told Reuters news agency that Israel believes some of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas in October 2023 could be in the area.
Image: Smoke rises during strikes amid the Israeli operation in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Ms Cummings’s remarks came as the UK and 24 other nations issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire.
The statement criticised aid distribution in Gaza, which is being managed by a US and Israel-backed organisation, Gaza Health Foundation (GHF).
“The Israeli government’s aid delivery model is dangerous, fuels instability and deprives Gazans of human dignity,” the joint statement said.
The 25 countries also called for the “immediate and unconditional release” of hostages captured by Hamas during the 7 October 2023 attacks.
Lammy promises £40m for Gaza
Foreign Secretary David Lammy has promised £40m for humanitarian assistance in Gaza.
He told MPs: “We are leading diplomatic efforts to show that there must be a viable pathway to a Palestinian state involving the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas, in the security and governance of the area.
“Hamas can have no role in the governance of Gaza, nor use it as a launchpad for terrorism.”
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Lammy: ‘There must be a viable pathway to a Palestinian state’
Addressing the foreign secretaries’ joint written statement, charity worker Liz Allcock – who works for Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) in Gaza – told Sky News: “While we welcome this, there have been statements in the past 21 months and nothing has changed.
“In fact, things have only got worse. And every time we think it can’t get worse, it does.”
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“Without a reversal of the siege, the lack of supplies, the constant bombardment, the forced displacement, the killing, the militarisation of aid, we are going to collapse as a humanitarian response,” she said.
“And this would do a grave injustice to the 2.2 million people we’re trying to serve.
“An immediate and permanent ceasefire, and avenues for accountability in line with international law, is the minimum people here deserve.”
The war in Gaza started in response to Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people and saw about 250 taken hostage.
More than 59,000 Palestinians have since been killed, with more than half being women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
Donald Trump is clearly seething over the term ‘TACO’ (Trump always chickens out) – a phrase that has characterised financial market trading over the past few months.
It suggests that for all the president’s bluster and threats during his on-off trade war to date, he rarely follows through.
When asked by a reporter about TACO in late May, as his “liberation day” escalation remained on pause, he declared it a “nasty” question and said he wanted negotiations.
Mr Trump wants a deal but to effectively bully America’s trading partners into agreeing better terms.
It’s a playbook that has defined his time in the White House and, as things stand, more than 20 nations and territories, including Japan and South Korea, face heightened tariffs of up to 40% on their exports to the US from 1 August.
Financial markets don’t really believe it. Stock markets, for example, are still hovering near or at record levels in both the US and in Europe. The FTSE 100 closed above 9,000 points for the first time on Monday evening. TACO is ingrained in those values.
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But are markets in for a shock, especially when it comes to the fight with America’s single largest trading partner, the European Union? It was created, Mr Trump has previously claimed, to “screw” the United States.
It’s fair to say there was great optimism in the EU earlier this month that a deal, similar to that agreed between the US and UK, was looming to avert the worst of a threatened 30% baseline tariff from 1 August.
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Explained: The US-UK trade deal
But the mood music in Brussels changed at the back end of last week and now EU diplomats are even briefing that a broader range of retaliation measures is being considered beyond additional tariffs on US goods.
The seriousness of this fight should not be underestimated.
EU figures show trade in goods and services between the bloc and the US account for almost a third of all global trade, at a value in 2024 alone of €1.68trn (£1.45trn).
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Trump ‘reigniting global trade war’
EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has warned that a 30% tariff would “practically prohibit” the bloc’s transatlantic trade, according to remarks via diplomats reported by the Reuters news agency.
We’re told that, even if time runs out, a truce could theoretically be agreed soon after 1 August.
Much will depend on the EU’s response.
Does it go down the route taken by the UK and not retaliate, pending the conclusion of talks?
There is growing pressure on Brussels to call Mr Trump’s bluff.
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Trump tariff threats all ‘bluster’
The EU has a package of tariffs on €21bn of US goods ready to go from 6 August. An additional package is yet to be finalised.
France is demanding US services are hit too, with even Germany now saying such an escalation should be considered.
The so-called “anti-coercion” instrument, as it’s known, would also potentially allow the bloc to limit US companies’ access to financial service markets in the EU.
So what happens after 1 August could be even more explosive.
But there is every reason to believe that a tit-for-tat escalation is unlikely, at least for long.
The very reason Donald Trump rowed back on his “liberation day” tariffs in April, allowing 90 days for talks, was likely the dire financial market reaction that followed news of the widespread duties.
You have a president demanding interest rate cuts (at a time when inflation is on the rise due to the impact of tariffs) in a bid to boost flagging economic growth.
Mr Trump says his trade war is all about boosting US manufacturing jobs but, at the end of the day, no powerbase of voters is going to accept a threat to the value of their investments for long.
No big US company will stand by and see its sales suffer.
At least 19 people have died after a Bangladesh air force plane crashed into a college campus, the military said.
The aircraft crashed into the campus of Milestone School and College in Uttara, in the northern area of the capital Dhaka, where students were taking tests or attending regular classes.
The pilot was one of the people killed, and, according to the military, 164 were injured in the incident.
The Bangladeshmilitary’s public relations department added that the aircraft was an F-7 BGI, and had taken off at 1.06pm local time before crashing shortly after.
Video shows fire and smoke rising from the crash site, with hundreds looking on.
Image: Pics: Reuters
The cause of the crash was not immediately clear.
Bengali-language daily newspaper Prothom Alo said that most of the injured were students with burn injuries.
Image: Pics: Reuters
Citing the duty officer at the fire service control room, Prothom Alo also reported that the plane had crashed on the roof of the college canteen.
Rafiqa Taha, a 16-year-old student at the school who was not present at the time of the crash, told the Associated Press that the school has around 2,000 students.
“I was terrified watching videos on TV,” she added. “My God! It’s my school.”