EPA releases new emissions rules: 60% EV by 2030, saves US trillions
The EPA is announcing expected new emissions rules today that will save Americans trillions of dollars in health and fuel costs, avoid nearly 10 billion tons of emissions, and result in an EV market share of about 60% by 2030 and 67% by 2032.
The rules are an improvement from President Biden’s previous commitment of 50% electric by 2030. But they’re also far ahead of what many automakers are planning, leaving millions of EV sales up for grabs come 2030.
On a press call in advance of the announcement, White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi noted that the auto industry has progressed significantly since Biden’s original executive order targeting 50% EVs was signed two years ago. The number of available EV models has doubled, charging stations have doubled, and total EV deployments have tripled.
As a result of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Bill, there has been significant public and private investment into electric car infrastructure and manufacturing. Zaidi said this will enable the production of 13 million vehicles’ worth of batteries in the US in 2030 – more than enough to meet today’s targets.
The investment and spending from these laws enabled the EPA to set more stringent targets with today’s rules than it might have been able to otherwise. While today’s regulations are stronger than previous targets, projections for BEV market share have been continually increased in recent years, such that an additional increase from today’s estimate seems feasible.
The new EPA rules do not mandate a certain percentage of EV sales, but rather mandate rapidly decreasing average fleet CO₂ emissions. Between 2026 and 2032, fleet emissions will need to drop by an average of 13% per year, until reaching 82g CO₂ per mile by 2032. By comparison, the average new vehicle in 2021 emitted 347gCO₂/mi – about four times as much as the 2032 rule.
They also target emissions of several other pollutants such as NOx, PM2.5, VOCs, SOx, and so on, reducing each by about half in the long term.
Watch EPA Administrator Michael Regan’s formal announcement of the new rule below, at 11 a.m. EDT:
Automakers can meet these mandates with whichever technology they choose, whether battery electric vehicles or otherwise. However, it is likely that most automakers will lean heavily on BEVs as they emit nothing at the tailpipe and are more easily scalable than other technologies like hybrids, fuel cells, or attempting to wring more efficiency out of gasoline engines.
The new rules cover not only passenger cars but also medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, with additional targets specific to those sectors. These standards will result in greater deployment of “vocational vehicles” like electric delivery trucks, dump trucks, transit, school buses and more – EPA estimates 50% of these will be electric by 2032.
EPA calculated costs and benefits from the new rules and estimates that the benefits of the new standards would exceed costs by at least $1 trillion, potentially much more in optimistic scenarios. The average consumer will save $12,000 over the life of a vehicle, in addition to hundreds of billions of health and climate benefits and reduced dependence on foreign oil to the tune of tens of billions of barrels.
And most importantly, EPA says that these new guidelines should contribute to the goal of limiting global warming to “well below 2ºC,” which is important to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
In addition to these emissions guidelines, the regulations seek to establish a minimum warranty period for EV batteries of at least 8 years and 80,000 miles and to require onboard battery health monitors. They will also reduce the gap between passenger car and “light truck” (SUV/pickup) emissions requirements, which could reduce some incentive that automakers currently have to build bigger and deadlier SUVs.
While the EPA’s guidelines do not match California’s new ACC2 regulations which ban sales of new ICE cars by 2035, EPA does acknowledge that a number of states have or will adopt ACC2, and a number of other countries are targeting similar all-EV timelines. Regions representing about 25% of global auto sales have already adopted goals banning new ICE cars by 2035, which establishes the global trend towards electrification. EPA also acknowledged that the largest US automaker, GM, requested an all-electric by 2035 target, but still decided to limit its rulemaking to model year 2032, rather than 2035.
The proposed regulations will go up for public review in the Federal Register, where the EPA also seeks feedback on three additional alternatives. These alternatives are 10gCO₂/mi more or less stringent than the proposed standards, with “Alternative 1” being the most stringent of the three. You can probably guess which of those alternatives we as Electrek would prefer.
Electrek’s Take
Reading through these regulations is quite a relief for someone who has been advocating for stronger emissions standards for so long, especially through four years of lying incompetence with previous EPA leadership. It’s nice to read government speak plainly about the necessity of a regulation, how it will help, how it will be achieved, and that it is achievable, all supported with real science.
With so much of our political discussion these days centered around 140-character regurgitations vomited uncritically from one talking head to another, sitting down to dig into (*checks notes*) 1,475 pages (oh-god-I’m-not-sleeping-tonight-am-I) of competent regulation is actually a bit of a breath of fresh air.
Whatever, call me a nerd. I accept it.
Importantly, these regulations are a significant increase from current automaker commitments, so we will need to see updates on those coming soon. As I argued after NYTimes leaked the upcoming rules over the weekend, the auto industry is up for grabs with these new rules.
I estimated that there will be a gap of roughly 2 million electric vehicles between this new EPA regulation and current automaker commitments for 2030 (EPA included a similar table in their proposed rule today, with similar numbers). That gap will need to be filled, and the most likely companies to fill it are the EV-only brands who have jumped in cannonball-style, instead of testing the water one toe at a time like some incumbent automakers have.
Read more on how these new rules will upend the industry, and how they’re achievable, here.
While these rules may be challenged, they still give industry a baseline that they need to target, and that they need to start working on now given the length of car development timelines. Any company that isn’t ready to meet these guidelines will be in a tough spot if the rules do survive inevitable challenges, or alternately, if the rules get strengthened over time.
And they just might, because we think there’s a good chance nobody’s going to want a gas car well before 2035 anyway. So automakers better get to work, and a swift kick in the pants by government might be just the motivation they need to save themselves.
If I’m going to criticize, I would like to have seen the EPA just copy California’s ACC2, unifying emissions rules across the US. This last happened when current President Biden was Vice President back in 2012, when CARB and the EPA worked together on emissions targets.
CARB intentionally set ACC2 targets a little lower than what California is probably capable of in the hopes to bring other states along, perhaps with the hope that the whole nation might adopt these standards. And 2035 is achievable nationwide, so we should do it, especially since it’s necessary to keep warming to 1.5ºC. But maybe, when it comes time to propose 2035 rules (since EPA stopped at 2032), we’ll be ready to ratchet things up a bit more, just as today’s rules did from the previous 50% target.
The proposed rules lag behind public opinion as well. According to a recent poll, a majority of US voters support a requirement that 100% of new cars sold be electric starting 2030. The idea was “strongly” or “somewhat” supported by 55% of respondents, and opposed by just 35%. This is another reason we ask “why not sooner?” about a 2035 target for 100% electric car sales.
But despite our misgivings, these actions taken today are still enormously important, a huge step forward for EVs, for Americans’ health and pocketbooks, and for the climate. It’s great to see.
Featured Photo by Billy Hathorn
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This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes a merger between Electric Bike Company and Integral Electrics, California looking to clamp down further on Sur Ron hooligans, a Super73 recall, Cowboy’s production move, a tour inside Bafang’s factory in China, and more.
The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 9:00 a.m. ET (or the video after 10:00 a.m. ET):
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NIU, best known as a leader in the electric moped market, has expanded considerably over the last few years. In addition to offering a hot-selling new electric dirt bike and showing off concepts for electric ATVs, the company is now unveiling an electric microcar known as the NIUMM 500.
Still in its prototype stage, the two-seater NIUMM 500 electric microcar is designed to fit into L6e category of light quadricycles in Europe. As a quadricycle, these vehicles are technically not “cars” in the traditional sense (or in the legal sense), and thus have their own set of regulations that help streamline their path to production. Other popular microcars, such as the Citroen Ami, have taken a similar path and reached success with over 30,000 units sold.
With a target price of €8,000 (approximately US $8,300), the NIUMM 500 is intended to fill that niche role of a comfortable, weather-protected urban commuter, going beyond a typical moped or motorcycle with the advantages of locking storage and the ultimate achievement of staying dry in the rain.
In order to qualify as an L6e vehicle though, there are certain restrictions such as speed and power that prevent the NIUMM 500 from laying down the fastest lap times. A top speed of 45 km/h (28 mph) keeps the microcar city-oriented, though you could probably tell by looking that this isn’t a highway vehicle.
In some countries, light quadricycles don’t even require a full car driver’s license, instead allowing the operator to hold a more easily-obtainable moped permit.
Despite the speed limitation, the little electric microcar has a lot going for it. The traditional steering wheel control and two-pedal drive setup will feel familiar to seasoned car drivers, yet the vehicle offers a more moped-like parking experience by taking up a mere fraction of a parking spot. The narrow size helps squeeze through tight city streets, though you likely won’t be lane splitting quite like a moped.
Back on the car-like side of things, electric locks and power windows come standard (including a power rear windshield), as does electric heating. Optional add-ons include a sun roof and air conditioning. There’s a decently large storage area behind the two seats, and another small storage area in front of the passenger seat.
And in another nod to its hybrid design, halfway between a moped and a car, the NIUMM 500 can even be outfitted with removable batteries (straight from NIU’s NQiX electric mopeds). The removable battery version allows apartment dwellers or others without access to street-level parking to still own and charge their own microcar. Just like how I charge my own NIU batteries at home, owners can simply carry the batteries up the elevator and charge them in their apartment.
For those with charging access though, there’s a fixed battery version with a larger 7 kWh capacity. It gets an impressive 118 km (73 miles) of range, compared to the removable battery version’s 60 km (37 miles) of range.
Both appear to feature the same 5 kW motor with a peak output of 10 kW – also the same drivetrain from the NIU NQiX electric moped.
NIU is currently showing off the new vehicle at the Motorrad show in Dortmund, Germany.
There’s no word yet on if or when the NIUMM 500 will see production, but based on conversations with company insiders, it sounds like NIU is fairly serious about the microcar’s future.
Here’s to hoping it sees the road soon, and that they can keep that target price in check on the way there.
Electrek’s Take
Yes, I’m all in on this!
I LOVE electric microcars. Give me a tiny car, a golf cart, whatever you want to call it, and I’ll take it. For city commuters, 25 mph is often sufficient, and since many people don’t feel safe on a scooter, these types of vehicles fit the bill as lighter and more efficient alternatives to a car that still carry some benefits of a scooter or moped.
I tested out Wink Motors’ vehicles in NYC a couple of years ago and got around the city just fine with a top speed of 25 mph, so I think these could even work in the US. But of course Europe is the primary target here thanks to their more conducive quadricycle laws.
If anyone at NIU is reading this, I will travel to review!
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Renewables increased their output by almost 10% and provided nearly a quarter of US electrical generation in 2024, according to newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Solar was still No 1
Solar remained the US’s fastest-growing source of electricity in 2024. Utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar combined increased by 26.9% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report data.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 32%, while small-scale solar increased by 15.3%. Together, solar was nearly 7% (6.91%) of total US electrical generation for the year.
In December alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar expanded by 42% compared to December 2023.
Small-scale solar (systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 1.9% of the US electricity supply in 2024. In fact, small-scale solar PV generates over five times more electricity than utility-scale geothermal.
2024 renewables milestones
The electrical output of US wind farms in 2024 grew by 7.7% year-over-year. Wind remains the largest source of electrical generation among renewable energy sources, accounting for 10.3% of the US total.
Wind and solar combined provided more than 17.2% of US electrical generation during 2024. The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – provided 24.2% of total US electricity production in 2024 compared to 23.2% of electrical output a year earlier.
Between January and December, electrical generation by renewables grew by 9.6% compared to the same period the year before – nearly three times the growth rate of natural gas (3.3%) and over 10 times that of nuclear power (0.9%).
In December alone, electrical generation by renewables grew by 10.1% compared to December 2023.
Wind and solar together produced 15.9% more electricity than coal and came close to matching nuclear power’s share of total generation (17.2% vs. 17.8%).
The mix of renewables reinforced their position as the second largest source of electrical generation, behind only natural gas.
“Renewable energy sources now provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Consequently, the rash efforts of the Trump Administration to undermine wind, solar, and other renewables will have serious negative consequences for the nation’s electricity supply and the economy.”
Read more: Renewables provided 90% of new US capacity in 2024 – FERC
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