EPA releases new emissions rules: 60% EV by 2030, saves US trillions
The EPA is announcing expected new emissions rules today that will save Americans trillions of dollars in health and fuel costs, avoid nearly 10 billion tons of emissions, and result in an EV market share of about 60% by 2030 and 67% by 2032.
The rules are an improvement from President Biden’s previous commitment of 50% electric by 2030. But they’re also far ahead of what many automakers are planning, leaving millions of EV sales up for grabs come 2030.
On a press call in advance of the announcement, White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi noted that the auto industry has progressed significantly since Biden’s original executive order targeting 50% EVs was signed two years ago. The number of available EV models has doubled, charging stations have doubled, and total EV deployments have tripled.
As a result of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Bill, there has been significant public and private investment into electric car infrastructure and manufacturing. Zaidi said this will enable the production of 13 million vehicles’ worth of batteries in the US in 2030 – more than enough to meet today’s targets.
The investment and spending from these laws enabled the EPA to set more stringent targets with today’s rules than it might have been able to otherwise. While today’s regulations are stronger than previous targets, projections for BEV market share have been continually increased in recent years, such that an additional increase from today’s estimate seems feasible.
The new EPA rules do not mandate a certain percentage of EV sales, but rather mandate rapidly decreasing average fleet CO₂ emissions. Between 2026 and 2032, fleet emissions will need to drop by an average of 13% per year, until reaching 82g CO₂ per mile by 2032. By comparison, the average new vehicle in 2021 emitted 347gCO₂/mi – about four times as much as the 2032 rule.
They also target emissions of several other pollutants such as NOx, PM2.5, VOCs, SOx, and so on, reducing each by about half in the long term.
Watch EPA Administrator Michael Regan’s formal announcement of the new rule below, at 11 a.m. EDT:
Automakers can meet these mandates with whichever technology they choose, whether battery electric vehicles or otherwise. However, it is likely that most automakers will lean heavily on BEVs as they emit nothing at the tailpipe and are more easily scalable than other technologies like hybrids, fuel cells, or attempting to wring more efficiency out of gasoline engines.
The new rules cover not only passenger cars but also medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, with additional targets specific to those sectors. These standards will result in greater deployment of “vocational vehicles” like electric delivery trucks, dump trucks, transit, school buses and more – EPA estimates 50% of these will be electric by 2032.
EPA calculated costs and benefits from the new rules and estimates that the benefits of the new standards would exceed costs by at least $1 trillion, potentially much more in optimistic scenarios. The average consumer will save $12,000 over the life of a vehicle, in addition to hundreds of billions of health and climate benefits and reduced dependence on foreign oil to the tune of tens of billions of barrels.
And most importantly, EPA says that these new guidelines should contribute to the goal of limiting global warming to “well below 2ºC,” which is important to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
In addition to these emissions guidelines, the regulations seek to establish a minimum warranty period for EV batteries of at least 8 years and 80,000 miles and to require onboard battery health monitors. They will also reduce the gap between passenger car and “light truck” (SUV/pickup) emissions requirements, which could reduce some incentive that automakers currently have to build bigger and deadlier SUVs.
While the EPA’s guidelines do not match California’s new ACC2 regulations which ban sales of new ICE cars by 2035, EPA does acknowledge that a number of states have or will adopt ACC2, and a number of other countries are targeting similar all-EV timelines. Regions representing about 25% of global auto sales have already adopted goals banning new ICE cars by 2035, which establishes the global trend towards electrification. EPA also acknowledged that the largest US automaker, GM, requested an all-electric by 2035 target, but still decided to limit its rulemaking to model year 2032, rather than 2035.
The proposed regulations will go up for public review in the Federal Register, where the EPA also seeks feedback on three additional alternatives. These alternatives are 10gCO₂/mi more or less stringent than the proposed standards, with “Alternative 1” being the most stringent of the three. You can probably guess which of those alternatives we as Electrek would prefer.
Electrek’s Take
Reading through these regulations is quite a relief for someone who has been advocating for stronger emissions standards for so long, especially through four years of lying incompetence with previous EPA leadership. It’s nice to read government speak plainly about the necessity of a regulation, how it will help, how it will be achieved, and that it is achievable, all supported with real science.
With so much of our political discussion these days centered around 140-character regurgitations vomited uncritically from one talking head to another, sitting down to dig into (*checks notes*) 1,475 pages (oh-god-I’m-not-sleeping-tonight-am-I) of competent regulation is actually a bit of a breath of fresh air.
Whatever, call me a nerd. I accept it.
Importantly, these regulations are a significant increase from current automaker commitments, so we will need to see updates on those coming soon. As I argued after NYTimes leaked the upcoming rules over the weekend, the auto industry is up for grabs with these new rules.
I estimated that there will be a gap of roughly 2 million electric vehicles between this new EPA regulation and current automaker commitments for 2030 (EPA included a similar table in their proposed rule today, with similar numbers). That gap will need to be filled, and the most likely companies to fill it are the EV-only brands who have jumped in cannonball-style, instead of testing the water one toe at a time like some incumbent automakers have.
Read more on how these new rules will upend the industry, and how they’re achievable, here.
While these rules may be challenged, they still give industry a baseline that they need to target, and that they need to start working on now given the length of car development timelines. Any company that isn’t ready to meet these guidelines will be in a tough spot if the rules do survive inevitable challenges, or alternately, if the rules get strengthened over time.
And they just might, because we think there’s a good chance nobody’s going to want a gas car well before 2035 anyway. So automakers better get to work, and a swift kick in the pants by government might be just the motivation they need to save themselves.
If I’m going to criticize, I would like to have seen the EPA just copy California’s ACC2, unifying emissions rules across the US. This last happened when current President Biden was Vice President back in 2012, when CARB and the EPA worked together on emissions targets.
CARB intentionally set ACC2 targets a little lower than what California is probably capable of in the hopes to bring other states along, perhaps with the hope that the whole nation might adopt these standards. And 2035 is achievable nationwide, so we should do it, especially since it’s necessary to keep warming to 1.5ºC. But maybe, when it comes time to propose 2035 rules (since EPA stopped at 2032), we’ll be ready to ratchet things up a bit more, just as today’s rules did from the previous 50% target.
The proposed rules lag behind public opinion as well. According to a recent poll, a majority of US voters support a requirement that 100% of new cars sold be electric starting 2030. The idea was “strongly” or “somewhat” supported by 55% of respondents, and opposed by just 35%. This is another reason we ask “why not sooner?” about a 2035 target for 100% electric car sales.
But despite our misgivings, these actions taken today are still enormously important, a huge step forward for EVs, for Americans’ health and pocketbooks, and for the climate. It’s great to see.
Featured Photo by Billy Hathorn
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Over the next two years, homebuilder Lennar is outfitting more than 1,500 new Colorado homes with Dandelion Energy’s geothermal systems in one of the largest residential geothermal rollouts in the US.
The big draw for homeowners is lower energy bills and cleaner heating and cooling. Dandelion claims Lennar homeowners with geothermal systems will collectively save around $30 million over the next 20 years compared to using air-source heat pumps. Geothermal heat pumps don’t need outdoor AC units or conventional heating systems, either.
Geothermal systems use the sustained temperature of the ground to heat or cool a home. A ground loop system absorbs heat energy (BTUs) from the earth so that it can be transferred to a heat pump and efficiently converted into warmth for a home. Dandelion says its ground loop systems are built to last for over 50 years and should require no maintenance.
Dandelion’s geothermal system uses a vertical ground closed-loop system that is installed using well-boring equipment and trenched back into the house to connect to a heat pump. The pipes circulate a mixture of water and propylene glycol, a food-grade antifreeze, that absorbs the ground’s temperature. A ground source heat pump circulates the liquid through the ground loops and it exchanges its heat energy in the heat pump with liquid refrigerant. The refrigerant is converted to vapor, compressed to increase its temperature, then passed through a heat exchanger to transfer heat to the air, which is circulated through a home’s HVAC ductwork.
Daniel Yates, Dandelion Energy’s CEO, called the partnership with Lennar a “new benchmark for affordable, energy-efficient, and high-quality home heating and cooling.” By streamlining its installation process, Dandelion is making geothermal systems simpler and cheaper for homebuilders and homeowners to adopt.
This collaboration is happening at a time when Colorado is pushing hard to meet its clean energy targets. Governor Jared Polis is excited about the move, calling it a win for Coloradans’ wallets, air quality, and the state’s leadership on geothermal energy. Will Toor, executive director of the Colorado Energy Office, said that “ensuring affordable access to geothermal heating and cooling is essential to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and we’re excited to be part of such a huge effort to bring this technology to so many new Colorado homes.”
And it’s not just about cutting emissions – geothermal heat pumps help reduce peak electric demand. Analysis from the Department of Energy found that widespread adoption of these systems could save the US from needing 24,500 miles of new transmission lines. That’s like crossing the continental US eight times.
Colorado is making this transition a lot more attractive through state tax credits and Xcel Energy’s rebate programs. These incentives slash upfront costs for builders like Lennar, making geothermal installations more financially viable. The utility’s Clean Heat Plan and electrification strategy are working to keep energy bills low while meeting climate goals.
Read more: This will be the first geothermal energy storage system on the Texas grid
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Polestar has removed the Polestar 2 from its US website header in an early sign of how new tariffs will restrict choice and competition for American consumers, thus increasing prices.
The Polestar 2 is Polestar’s first full EV – the original Polestar 1 was a limited-edition plug-in hybrid.
It started production in 2020 in Luqiao, Zhejiang, China, where Polestar and Volvo’s parent corporation, Geely, was founded.
And there’s the rub: while Polestar’s newer EV, the 3 (which we just drove the new single motor version of last week), is built in South Carolina, the 2 is not.
Unfortunately, that interacts with some news that has been getting a lot of play lately: tariffs.
The US has been gradually getting stupider and stupider on the issue of tariffs, apparently determined to increase prices for Americans and decrease the competitiveness of American manufacturing in a time of change for the auto industry.
It is widely acknowledged (by anyone who has given it a few seconds of thought) that tariffs increase prices and that trade barriers tend to reduce competition, leading to less innovation.
It started with 25% tariffs on various products from China, implemented in the 2018-2020 timeframe. Then, in 2024, President Biden implemented a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, effectively stopping their sale in the US. These tariffs included some exceptions and credits based on Volvo’s other US manufacturing, which Polestar had used to keep the most expensive versions of the 2 on sale in the US, while restricting the lower-priced versions from sale. Nevertheless, they were a bad idea.
Now, in yet another step to make America less competitive and inflate the prices of goods more for Americans, we got more tariff announcements today from a senile ex-reality TV host who wandered into the White House rose garden (which he does not belong in). These tariffs do not include the same exceptions as the previously-announced Biden tariffs.
Apparently this has all been enough for Polestar, as even in advance of today’s tariff announcements, the company suddenly removed its Polestar 2 from its website header today.
The change can be seen at polestar.com/us, where only the Polestar 3 and 4 are listed in the header area. On other sites, like the company’s Norwegian website or British website, the car is still there. The Polestar 2 page is still up on the US website, but it isn’t linked to elsewhere on the site (we’ll see how long it stays up).
We reached out to Polestar for comment, but didn’t hear anything back before publication. We’ll update if we do.
It makes sense that the Polestar 2 would still be for sale elsewhere, as it only started production in 2020. Most car models are available for at least 7 years, so this is an earlier exit than expected.
So it’s likely that all of the tariff news is what had an effect in killing the Polestar 2.
Then again, this is also just the second day of a new fiscal quarter. Perhaps the timing offers Polestar an opportunity to make a clean break – especially now that the lower-priced version of its Polestar 3 is available.
Despite the lower $67.5k base price of the new Polestar 3 variant, that represents a big increase in price for the brand, which had sold the base model Polestar 2 for around $50k originally, before all of these tariffs.
Update: Polestar got back to us with comment, but understandably, it doesn’t say much:
Polestar is a three-car company and Polestar 2 is available for customers now. There are a select number of Polestar 2s in stock at retailers that can be found on Polestar.com, but Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 will be the priority in the North American market.
Electrek’s Take
This isn’t the first car that America has been deprived of due to tariffs. The Volvo EX30, one of our most anticipated vehicles, and Electrek’s Vehicle of the Year for 2024, had its American availability pushed back due to tariffs.
Volvo decided to build the car in Belgium and export it to the US, but now that new tariffs apply to the EU as well, maybe that low-priced, awesome, fast, small EV will instead stay in Europe instead of being shipped overseas.
This shows how mercurial tariff fiats from an ignoramus are bad for manufacturing, as they mean that companies can’t make plans – and if they can’t make plans, eventually, they’ll probably just write the country making the random decisions out of their plans so they don’t have to deal with the nonsense.
And we’ve heard this from every businessperson or manufacturer representative we’ve talked to at any level of the automotive industry. Nobody thinks any of this is a good idea, because it objectively is not. All it does is make business harder, make the US less trustworthy, make things more expensive, and overall just harm America.
Yet another way that Americans are getting screwed by this stupid nonsense. 49% of you voted for inflation, and 100% of Americans are now getting it. Happy Inflation Day, everyone.
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Lucid Motors (LCID) has now had six straight quarters with higher deliveries. The delivery record comes just as Lucid prepares to begin delivering its first electric SUV, the Gravity, to customers by the end of this month.
Lucid sets sixth straight delivery record in Q1 2025
Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in the first quarter, up 58% from last year and topping its previous record of 3,099 set in Q4 2024.
The company also produced 2,213 vehicles at its Casa Grande, Arizona, plant in the first three months of 2025, an increase of 28% from last year. Another 600 vehicles were in transit to Saudi Arabia, where they will be assembled at its new AMP-2 plant, Lucid’s first international manufacturing facility.
At this pace, Lucid will easily top the roughly 10,200 vehicles it delivered last year in 2025 at around 12,500. Lucid will likely see even more growth this year, with customer deliveries of its first electric SUV starting soon.
During the Gravity SUV’s “celestial arrival” last week in NYC, Lucid’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff said the EV maker is “nearly finished building all the vehicles that we wanted to build to put them into our studio and for test drives.”
| Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Full-year 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Full-year 2024 | Q1 2025 | |
| Lucid EV deliveries by quarter | 1,932 | 1,406 | 1,404 | 1,457 | 1,734 | 6,001 | 1,967 | 2,394 | 2,781 | 3,099 | 10,241 | 3,109 |
Winterhoff added, “by the end of April, we will resume customer deliveries of the Gravity.” Lucid delivered the first models in December, but they were for employees, friends, and family.
Lucid calls the Gravity a “no compromise” SUV with a range of up to 450 miles, 120 cubic feet of interior space, advanced technology, and sports car-like performance. The Gravity Grand Touring starts at $94,900, while the Touring model will arrive later this year at $79,900.
The new delivery record comes after Winterhoff told Fox Business last week that Lucid has seen a “dramatic uptick over the past two months” in orders from former Tesla drivers.
Currently, “50% of all the orders we have are from former Tesla owners,” Lucid’s CEO said. Winterhoff added that many are “looking for an option to not continue having a Tesla.”
Will we see the trend continue? Tesla announced earlier today that it delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter, far less than the 390,000 Wall Street analysts expected.
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