EPA releases new emissions rules: 60% EV by 2030, saves US trillions
The EPA is announcing expected new emissions rules today that will save Americans trillions of dollars in health and fuel costs, avoid nearly 10 billion tons of emissions, and result in an EV market share of about 60% by 2030 and 67% by 2032.
The rules are an improvement from President Biden’s previous commitment of 50% electric by 2030. But they’re also far ahead of what many automakers are planning, leaving millions of EV sales up for grabs come 2030.
On a press call in advance of the announcement, White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi noted that the auto industry has progressed significantly since Biden’s original executive order targeting 50% EVs was signed two years ago. The number of available EV models has doubled, charging stations have doubled, and total EV deployments have tripled.
As a result of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Bill, there has been significant public and private investment into electric car infrastructure and manufacturing. Zaidi said this will enable the production of 13 million vehicles’ worth of batteries in the US in 2030 – more than enough to meet today’s targets.
The investment and spending from these laws enabled the EPA to set more stringent targets with today’s rules than it might have been able to otherwise. While today’s regulations are stronger than previous targets, projections for BEV market share have been continually increased in recent years, such that an additional increase from today’s estimate seems feasible.
The new EPA rules do not mandate a certain percentage of EV sales, but rather mandate rapidly decreasing average fleet CO₂ emissions. Between 2026 and 2032, fleet emissions will need to drop by an average of 13% per year, until reaching 82g CO₂ per mile by 2032. By comparison, the average new vehicle in 2021 emitted 347gCO₂/mi – about four times as much as the 2032 rule.
They also target emissions of several other pollutants such as NOx, PM2.5, VOCs, SOx, and so on, reducing each by about half in the long term.
Watch EPA Administrator Michael Regan’s formal announcement of the new rule below, at 11 a.m. EDT:
Automakers can meet these mandates with whichever technology they choose, whether battery electric vehicles or otherwise. However, it is likely that most automakers will lean heavily on BEVs as they emit nothing at the tailpipe and are more easily scalable than other technologies like hybrids, fuel cells, or attempting to wring more efficiency out of gasoline engines.
The new rules cover not only passenger cars but also medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, with additional targets specific to those sectors. These standards will result in greater deployment of “vocational vehicles” like electric delivery trucks, dump trucks, transit, school buses and more – EPA estimates 50% of these will be electric by 2032.
EPA calculated costs and benefits from the new rules and estimates that the benefits of the new standards would exceed costs by at least $1 trillion, potentially much more in optimistic scenarios. The average consumer will save $12,000 over the life of a vehicle, in addition to hundreds of billions of health and climate benefits and reduced dependence on foreign oil to the tune of tens of billions of barrels.
And most importantly, EPA says that these new guidelines should contribute to the goal of limiting global warming to “well below 2ºC,” which is important to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
In addition to these emissions guidelines, the regulations seek to establish a minimum warranty period for EV batteries of at least 8 years and 80,000 miles and to require onboard battery health monitors. They will also reduce the gap between passenger car and “light truck” (SUV/pickup) emissions requirements, which could reduce some incentive that automakers currently have to build bigger and deadlier SUVs.
While the EPA’s guidelines do not match California’s new ACC2 regulations which ban sales of new ICE cars by 2035, EPA does acknowledge that a number of states have or will adopt ACC2, and a number of other countries are targeting similar all-EV timelines. Regions representing about 25% of global auto sales have already adopted goals banning new ICE cars by 2035, which establishes the global trend towards electrification. EPA also acknowledged that the largest US automaker, GM, requested an all-electric by 2035 target, but still decided to limit its rulemaking to model year 2032, rather than 2035.
The proposed regulations will go up for public review in the Federal Register, where the EPA also seeks feedback on three additional alternatives. These alternatives are 10gCO₂/mi more or less stringent than the proposed standards, with “Alternative 1” being the most stringent of the three. You can probably guess which of those alternatives we as Electrek would prefer.
Electrek’s Take
Reading through these regulations is quite a relief for someone who has been advocating for stronger emissions standards for so long, especially through four years of lying incompetence with previous EPA leadership. It’s nice to read government speak plainly about the necessity of a regulation, how it will help, how it will be achieved, and that it is achievable, all supported with real science.
With so much of our political discussion these days centered around 140-character regurgitations vomited uncritically from one talking head to another, sitting down to dig into (*checks notes*) 1,475 pages (oh-god-I’m-not-sleeping-tonight-am-I) of competent regulation is actually a bit of a breath of fresh air.
Whatever, call me a nerd. I accept it.
Importantly, these regulations are a significant increase from current automaker commitments, so we will need to see updates on those coming soon. As I argued after NYTimes leaked the upcoming rules over the weekend, the auto industry is up for grabs with these new rules.
I estimated that there will be a gap of roughly 2 million electric vehicles between this new EPA regulation and current automaker commitments for 2030 (EPA included a similar table in their proposed rule today, with similar numbers). That gap will need to be filled, and the most likely companies to fill it are the EV-only brands who have jumped in cannonball-style, instead of testing the water one toe at a time like some incumbent automakers have.
Read more on how these new rules will upend the industry, and how they’re achievable, here.
While these rules may be challenged, they still give industry a baseline that they need to target, and that they need to start working on now given the length of car development timelines. Any company that isn’t ready to meet these guidelines will be in a tough spot if the rules do survive inevitable challenges, or alternately, if the rules get strengthened over time.
And they just might, because we think there’s a good chance nobody’s going to want a gas car well before 2035 anyway. So automakers better get to work, and a swift kick in the pants by government might be just the motivation they need to save themselves.
If I’m going to criticize, I would like to have seen the EPA just copy California’s ACC2, unifying emissions rules across the US. This last happened when current President Biden was Vice President back in 2012, when CARB and the EPA worked together on emissions targets.
CARB intentionally set ACC2 targets a little lower than what California is probably capable of in the hopes to bring other states along, perhaps with the hope that the whole nation might adopt these standards. And 2035 is achievable nationwide, so we should do it, especially since it’s necessary to keep warming to 1.5ºC. But maybe, when it comes time to propose 2035 rules (since EPA stopped at 2032), we’ll be ready to ratchet things up a bit more, just as today’s rules did from the previous 50% target.
The proposed rules lag behind public opinion as well. According to a recent poll, a majority of US voters support a requirement that 100% of new cars sold be electric starting 2030. The idea was “strongly” or “somewhat” supported by 55% of respondents, and opposed by just 35%. This is another reason we ask “why not sooner?” about a 2035 target for 100% electric car sales.
But despite our misgivings, these actions taken today are still enormously important, a huge step forward for EVs, for Americans’ health and pocketbooks, and for the climate. It’s great to see.
Featured Photo by Billy Hathorn
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In a bold bid to combat the crippling air pollution crisis in its capital, Delhi, Indian lawmakers have begun high-level discussions about a plan to phase out gas and diesel combustion vehicles by 2035 – a move that could cause a seismic shift in the global EV space and provide a cleaner, greener future for India’s capital.
Long considered one of the world’s most polluted capital cities, Indian capital Delhi is taking drastic steps to cut back pollution with a gas and diesel engine ban coming soon – but they want results faster than that. As such, Delhi is starting with a city-wide ban on refueling vehicles more than 15 years old, and it went into effect earlier this week. (!)
“We are installing gadgets at petrol pumps which will identify vehicles older than 15 years, and no fuel will be provided to them,” said Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa … but they’re not stopping there. “Additionally, we will intensify scrutiny of heavy vehicles entering Delhi to ensure they meet prescribed environmental standards before being allowed entry.”
Making it prohibitively difficult for Dehli’s residents to own and operate older, presumably more polluting vehicles is one way to reduce harmful emissions and air pollution, but Sirsa’s team isn’t just targeting newer vehicles. They’re also planning to deploy more than 900 electric transit buses, part of a larger plan to replace 5,000 of the city’s 7,500 total bus with lower- or zero-emission options this year alone.
The Economic Times is reporting that discussions are underway to pass laws requiring that all future bus purchases will be required to be electric or “clean fuel” (read: CNG or hydrogen) by the end of this year, with a gas/diesel ban on “three-wheelers and light goods vehicles,” (commercial tuk-tuks and delivery mopeds) potentially coming 2026 to 2027 and a similar ban privately owned and operated cars and bikes coming “between 2030 and 2035.”
Electrek’s Take
After a Chinese government study linked air pollution caused by automotive exhausts and coal-fired power plants to more than 1.1 million deaths per year in 2013, the nation’s government took serious action, shuttering older coal plants and imposing strict emissions standards. The country also incentivized EV adoption through license-plate lotteries favoring electric cars and a nationwide EV mandate set to kick in by 2030.
The results were astounding, and the technological innovations that have come from an entire nation of talented engineers all “pulling in the same direction” have put the West to shame, with Western auto executives repeatedly sounding the alarm and lobbying for tariffs and other protectionist policies on both sides of the Atlantic.
To see India make move towards a gas and diesel ban like this, and on such an aggressive timeline, can only mean that they’ve been paying attention … and America is about to fall even further behind.
SOURCE: India Times; featured image by Sumita Roy Dutta.
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Last week, Parker Hannifin launched what they’re calling the industry’s first certified Mobile Electrification Technology Center to train mobile equipment technicians make the transition from conventional diesel engines to modern electric motors.
The electrification of mobile equipment is opening new doors for construction and engineering companies working in indoor, environmentally sensitive, or noise-regulated urban environments – but it also poses a new set of challenges that, while they mirror some of the challenges internal combustion faced a century ago, aren’t yet fully solved. These go beyond just getting energy to the equipment assets’ batteries, and include the integration of hydraulic implements, electronic controls, and the myriad of upfit accessories that have been developed over the last five decades to operate on 12V power.
At the same time, manufacturers and dealers have to ensure the safety of their technicians, which includes providing comprehensive training on the intricacies of high-voltage electric vehicle repair and maintenance – and that’s where Parker’s new mobile equipment training program comes in, helping to accelerate the shift to EVs.
“We are excited to partner with these outstanding distributors at a higher level. Their commitment to designing innovative mobile electrification systems aligns perfectly with our vision to empower machine manufacturers in reducing their environmental footprint while enhancing operational efficiency,” explains Mark Schoessler, VP of sales for Parker’s Motion Systems Group. “Their expertise in designing mobile electrification systems and their capability to deliver integrated solutions will help to maximize the impact of Parker’s expanding METC network.”
The manufacturing equipment experts at Nott Company were among the first to go through the Parker Hannifin training program, certifying their technicians on Parker’s electric motors, drives, coolers, controllers and control systems.
“We are proud to be recognized for our unwavering dedication to advancing mobile electrification technologies and delivering cutting-edge solutions,” says Nott CEO, Markus Rauchhaus. “This milestone would not have been possible without our incredible partners, customers and the team at Nott Company.”
In addition to Nott, two other North American distributors (Depatie Fluid Power in Portage, Michigan, and Hydradyne in Fort Worth, Texas) have completed the Parker certification.
Electrek’s Take
With the rise of electric equipment assets like Bobcat’s T7X compact track loader and E10e electric excavator that eliminate traditional hydraulics and rely on high-voltage battery systems, specialized electrical systems training is becoming increasingly important. Seasoned, steady hands with decades of diesel and hydraulic systems experience are obsolete, and they’ll need to learn new skills to stay relevant.
Certification programs like Parker’s are working to bridge that skills gap, equipping technicians with the skills to maximize performance while mitigating risks associated with high-voltage systems. Here’s hoping more of these start popping up sooner than later.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Parker Hannifin.
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Based on a Peterbilt 579 commercial semi truck, the ReVolt EREV hybrid electric semi truck promises 40% better fuel economy and more than twice the torque of a conventional, diesel-powered semi. The concept has promise – and now, it has customers.
Austin, Texas-based ReVolt Motors scored its first win with specialist carrier Page Trucking, who’s rolling the dice on five of the Peterbilt 579-based hybrid big rigs — with another order for 15 more of the modified Petes waiting in the wings if the initial five work out.
The deal will see ReVolt’s “dual-power system” put to the test in real-world conditions, pairing its e-axles’ battery-electric torque with up to 1,200 miles of diesel-extended range.
ReVolt Motors team
The ReVolt team starts off with a Peterbilt, then removes the transmission and drive axle, replacing them with a large genhead and batteries. As the big Pete’s diesel engine runs (that’s right, kids – the engine stays in place), it creates electrical energy that’s stored in the trucks’ batteries. Those electrons then flow to the truck’s 670 hp e-axles, putting down a massive, 3500 lb-ft of Earth-moving torque to the ground at 0 rpm.
The result is an electrically-driven semi truck that works like a big BMW i3 or other EREV, and packs enough battery capacity to operate as a ZEV (sorry, ZET) in ports and urban clean zones. And, more importantly, allows over-the-road drivers to hotel for up to 34 hours without idling the engine or requiring a grid connection.
That ability to “hotel” in the cab is incredibly important, especially as the national shortage of semi truck parking continues to worsen and the number of goods shipped across America’s roads continues to increase.
And, because the ReVolt trucks can hotel without the noise and emissions of diesel or the loss of range of pure electric, they can immediately “plug in” to existing long-haul routes without the need to wait for a commercial truck charging infrastructure to materialize.
“Drivers should not have to choose between losing their longtime routes because of changing regulatory environments or losing the truck in which they have already made significant investments,” explains Gus Gardner, ReVolt founder and CEO. “American truckers want their trucks to reflect their identity, and our retrofit technology allows them to continue driving the trucks they love while still making a living.”
If all of that sounds familiar, it’s probably because you’ve heard of Hyliion.
Hyliion electric semi truck
Before it changed its focus to develop Carnot-cycle generators and gensets, Austin-based Hyliion built a number of EREV Peterbilts using the then-new 15L Cummins diesel as a generator and employing the same sort of battery and e-axle-arrangement as ReVolt.
In addition to being located in the same town and employing the same idea in the same Peterbilt 579 tractor, ReVolt even employs some of the same key players as Hyliion: both the company’s CTO, Chandra Patil, and its Director of Engineering, Blake Witchie, previously worked at Hyliion’s truck works.
Still, Hyliion made their choice when they shut down their truck business. ReVolt seems to have picked up the ball – and their first customer is eager to run with it.
“Our industry is undergoing a major transition, and fleet owners need practical solutions that make financial sense while reducing our environmental impact,” said Dan Titus, CEO of Page Trucking. “ReVolt’s hybrid drivetrain lowers our fuel costs, providing our drivers with a powerful and efficient truck, all without the need for expensive charging infrastructure or worrying about state compliance mandates. The reduced emissions also enable our customers to reduce their Scope 2 emissions.”
Page Trucking has a fleet of approximately 500 trucks in service, serving the agriculture, hazardous materials, and bulk commodities industries throughout Texas. And, if ReVolt’s EREV semis live up to their promise, expect them to operate a lot more than 20 of ’em.
SOURCES | IMAGES: ReVolt; via Power Progress, TTNews.
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