Inflation continued to retreat in March as energy prices pulled back from a year ago, when they began to spike due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But swings in gasoline and other energy mask price pressures that, while easing, remain under the surface, economists said.
“It’s improving and the economy is cooling, but it’s still far from tepid,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said of inflation.
The consumer price index, a key gauge of inflation, rose by 5% in March relative to 12 months earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.
The index measures price changes across a broad basket of consumer goods and services, like food, housing, electronics and recreation.
The latest annual reading declined from 6% in February. The reduction doesn’t mean prices fell; they’re still rising, just more slowly than a year ago.
A little bit of inflation is good — policymakers aim for about 2% a year, according to a different but related measure.
While still “painfully high,” inflation has eased significantly from its peak of more than 9% in June 2022, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. Inflation seems poised to fall back to policymakers’ target by this time next year, barring any unforeseen derailments, he said.
“Inflation is fundamentally moderating,” Zandi said. “And all the trend lines look good.
“I can say that with increasing confidence.”
What drove inflation in March 2023
Housing was a “notable” inflation driver in March and over the past year, according to the BLS.
The shelter index increased 8.2% in the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in consumer prices after stripping out the volatile energy and food categories. Other notable annual increases include motor vehicle insurance (15%), household furnishings and operations (5.6%), recreation (4.8%) and new vehicles (6.1%), the bureau said.
“There are a lot of categories that continue to see outsized increases month after month,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “And [some of] those are categories that are staples in the household budget.”
“We’ve got to see improvement in terms of moderating price pressures across a broad range of categories,” he added.
The overall energy index is down 6.4% in the past year.
Average U.S. gasoline prices topped out over $5 a gallon in June 2022, following a surge in oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The price increase for both regular motor gasoline and diesel fuel from February to March 2022 was the largest monthly gain on record, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
It’s improving and the economy is cooling, but it’s still far from tepid.
Housing accounts for the largest share of average household expenses. Elevated inflation in housing has therefore served to prop up CPI readings.
There’s been a “huge” moderation in newly signed rent agreements, said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. But price changes generally take nine months to a year to flow into CPI reports, due to how economists calculate price changes in the housing category, he said.
“The big uncertainty is: We know housing costs should start to moderate … soon [in the CPI], but none of us know exactly when,” Ashworth said.
The food at home index (i.e., grocery prices) fell 0.3% in March, its first monthly decline since September 2020. That’s due to a combination of things like lower prices for diesel, a key component in transporting food to stores, and easing supply-chain issues, Zandi said.
“It signals the food inflation fever has been broken,” Zandi said.
Why inflation popped up and remains high
Consumer prices began rising rapidly in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown. Americans unleashed a flurry of pent-up demand for dining out, entertainment and vacations, aided by savings amassed from government relief.
Meanwhile, the rapid economic restart snarled global supply chains, a dynamic exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with consumers’ willingness to spend.
Inflation was initially siloed in categories of physical goods like used cars and trucks. But the dynamic has morphed.
“The supply shortage was very much a 2021, 2022 story,” Ashworth said.
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Now, inflation is more a story of “services,” which includes categories like haircuts, auto insurance, airline fares, medical care and rent, economists said.
That’s largely due to conditions in the job market, characterized by historic demand for workers, low unemployment and strong wage growth, economists said. Higher labor costs pressure businesses to raise their prices, especially in labor-intensive service industries, economists said. While the labor market remains hot, it has been gradually cooling.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation. This mechanism aims to increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, who pare back spending, thereby cooling the economy and labor market and, ultimately, inflation.
Recent turmoil in the banking sector is expected to reduce banks’ willingness to make loans — and those tighter credit conditions are expected to further cool the economy and help tame inflation.
That credit tightening will likely help cool inflation in the second half of the year, Swonk said.
This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes a merger between Electric Bike Company and Integral Electrics, California looking to clamp down further on Sur Ron hooligans, a Super73 recall, Cowboy’s production move, a tour inside Bafang’s factory in China, and more.
The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
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After the show ends, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 9:00 a.m. ET (or the video after 10:00 a.m. ET):
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NIU, best known as a leader in the electric moped market, has expanded considerably over the last few years. In addition to offering a hot-selling new electric dirt bike and showing off concepts for electric ATVs, the company is now unveiling an electric microcar known as the NIUMM 500.
Still in its prototype stage, the two-seater NIUMM 500 electric microcar is designed to fit into L6e category of light quadricycles in Europe. As a quadricycle, these vehicles are technically not “cars” in the traditional sense (or in the legal sense), and thus have their own set of regulations that help streamline their path to production. Other popular microcars, such as the Citroen Ami, have taken a similar path and reached success with over 30,000 units sold.
With a target price of €8,000 (approximately US $8,300), the NIUMM 500 is intended to fill that niche role of a comfortable, weather-protected urban commuter, going beyond a typical moped or motorcycle with the advantages of locking storage and the ultimate achievement of staying dry in the rain.
In order to qualify as an L6e vehicle though, there are certain restrictions such as speed and power that prevent the NIUMM 500 from laying down the fastest lap times. A top speed of 45 km/h (28 mph) keeps the microcar city-oriented, though you could probably tell by looking that this isn’t a highway vehicle.
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In some countries, light quadricycles don’t even require a full car driver’s license, instead allowing the operator to hold a more easily-obtainable moped permit.
Despite the speed limitation, the little electric microcar has a lot going for it. The traditional steering wheel control and two-pedal drive setup will feel familiar to seasoned car drivers, yet the vehicle offers a more moped-like parking experience by taking up a mere fraction of a parking spot. The narrow size helps squeeze through tight city streets, though you likely won’t be lane splitting quite like a moped.
Back on the car-like side of things, electric locks and power windows come standard (including a power rear windshield), as does electric heating. Optional add-ons include a sun roof and air conditioning. There’s a decently large storage area behind the two seats, and another small storage area in front of the passenger seat.
And in another nod to its hybrid design, halfway between a moped and a car, the NIUMM 500 can even be outfitted with removable batteries (straight from NIU’s NQiX electric mopeds). The removable battery version allows apartment dwellers or others without access to street-level parking to still own and charge their own microcar. Just like how I charge my own NIU batteries at home, owners can simply carry the batteries up the elevator and charge them in their apartment.
For those with charging access though, there’s a fixed battery version with a larger 7 kWh capacity. It gets an impressive 118 km (73 miles) of range, compared to the removable battery version’s 60 km (37 miles) of range.
Both appear to feature the same 5 kW motor with a peak output of 10 kW – also the same drivetrain from the NIU NQiX electric moped.
NIU is currently showing off the new vehicle at the Motorrad show in Dortmund, Germany.
There’s no word yet on if or when the NIUMM 500 will see production, but based on conversations with company insiders, it sounds like NIU is fairly serious about the microcar’s future.
Here’s to hoping it sees the road soon, and that they can keep that target price in check on the way there.
Electrek’s Take
Yes, I’m all in on this!
I LOVE electric microcars. Give me a tiny car, a golf cart, whatever you want to call it, and I’ll take it. For city commuters, 25 mph is often sufficient, and since many people don’t feel safe on a scooter, these types of vehicles fit the bill as lighter and more efficient alternatives to a car that still carry some benefits of a scooter or moped.
I tested out Wink Motors’ vehicles in NYC a couple of years ago and got around the city just fine with a top speed of 25 mph, so I think these could even work in the US. But of course Europe is the primary target here thanks to their more conducive quadricycle laws.
If anyone at NIU is reading this, I will travel to review!
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Renewables increased their output by almost 10% and provided nearly a quarter of US electrical generation in 2024, according to newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Solar was still No 1
Solar remained the US’s fastest-growing source of electricity in 2024. Utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar combined increased by 26.9% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report data.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 32%, while small-scale solar increased by 15.3%. Together, solar was nearly 7% (6.91%) of total US electrical generation for the year.
In December alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar expanded by 42% compared to December 2023.
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Small-scale solar (systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 1.9% of the US electricity supply in 2024. In fact, small-scale solar PV generates over five times more electricity than utility-scale geothermal.
2024 renewables milestones
The electrical output of US wind farms in 2024 grew by 7.7% year-over-year. Wind remains the largest source of electrical generation among renewable energy sources, accounting for 10.3% of the US total.
Wind and solar combined provided more than 17.2% of US electrical generation during 2024. The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – provided 24.2% of total US electricity production in 2024 compared to 23.2% of electrical output a year earlier.
Between January and December, electrical generation by renewables grew by 9.6% compared to the same period the year before – nearly three times the growth rate of natural gas (3.3%) and over 10 times that of nuclear power (0.9%).
In December alone, electrical generation by renewables grew by 10.1% compared to December 2023.
Wind and solar together produced 15.9% more electricity than coal and came close to matching nuclear power’s share of total generation (17.2% vs. 17.8%).
The mix of renewables reinforced their position as the second largest source of electrical generation, behind only natural gas.
“Renewable energy sources now provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Consequently, the rash efforts of the Trump Administration to undermine wind, solar, and other renewables will have serious negative consequences for the nation’s electricity supply and the economy.”
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