Inflation continued to retreat in March as energy prices pulled back from a year ago, when they began to spike due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But swings in gasoline and other energy mask price pressures that, while easing, remain under the surface, economists said.
“It’s improving and the economy is cooling, but it’s still far from tepid,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said of inflation.
The consumer price index, a key gauge of inflation, rose by 5% in March relative to 12 months earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.
The index measures price changes across a broad basket of consumer goods and services, like food, housing, electronics and recreation.
The latest annual reading declined from 6% in February. The reduction doesn’t mean prices fell; they’re still rising, just more slowly than a year ago.
A little bit of inflation is good — policymakers aim for about 2% a year, according to a different but related measure.
While still “painfully high,” inflation has eased significantly from its peak of more than 9% in June 2022, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. Inflation seems poised to fall back to policymakers’ target by this time next year, barring any unforeseen derailments, he said.
“Inflation is fundamentally moderating,” Zandi said. “And all the trend lines look good.
“I can say that with increasing confidence.”
What drove inflation in March 2023
Housing was a “notable” inflation driver in March and over the past year, according to the BLS.
The shelter index increased 8.2% in the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in consumer prices after stripping out the volatile energy and food categories. Other notable annual increases include motor vehicle insurance (15%), household furnishings and operations (5.6%), recreation (4.8%) and new vehicles (6.1%), the bureau said.
“There are a lot of categories that continue to see outsized increases month after month,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “And [some of] those are categories that are staples in the household budget.”
“We’ve got to see improvement in terms of moderating price pressures across a broad range of categories,” he added.
The overall energy index is down 6.4% in the past year.
Average U.S. gasoline prices topped out over $5 a gallon in June 2022, following a surge in oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The price increase for both regular motor gasoline and diesel fuel from February to March 2022 was the largest monthly gain on record, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
It’s improving and the economy is cooling, but it’s still far from tepid.
Housing accounts for the largest share of average household expenses. Elevated inflation in housing has therefore served to prop up CPI readings.
There’s been a “huge” moderation in newly signed rent agreements, said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. But price changes generally take nine months to a year to flow into CPI reports, due to how economists calculate price changes in the housing category, he said.
“The big uncertainty is: We know housing costs should start to moderate … soon [in the CPI], but none of us know exactly when,” Ashworth said.
The food at home index (i.e., grocery prices) fell 0.3% in March, its first monthly decline since September 2020. That’s due to a combination of things like lower prices for diesel, a key component in transporting food to stores, and easing supply-chain issues, Zandi said.
“It signals the food inflation fever has been broken,” Zandi said.
Why inflation popped up and remains high
Consumer prices began rising rapidly in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown. Americans unleashed a flurry of pent-up demand for dining out, entertainment and vacations, aided by savings amassed from government relief.
Meanwhile, the rapid economic restart snarled global supply chains, a dynamic exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with consumers’ willingness to spend.
Inflation was initially siloed in categories of physical goods like used cars and trucks. But the dynamic has morphed.
“The supply shortage was very much a 2021, 2022 story,” Ashworth said.
Richard Ross | The Image Bank | Getty Images
Now, inflation is more a story of “services,” which includes categories like haircuts, auto insurance, airline fares, medical care and rent, economists said.
That’s largely due to conditions in the job market, characterized by historic demand for workers, low unemployment and strong wage growth, economists said. Higher labor costs pressure businesses to raise their prices, especially in labor-intensive service industries, economists said. While the labor market remains hot, it has been gradually cooling.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation. This mechanism aims to increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, who pare back spending, thereby cooling the economy and labor market and, ultimately, inflation.
Recent turmoil in the banking sector is expected to reduce banks’ willingness to make loans — and those tighter credit conditions are expected to further cool the economy and help tame inflation.
That credit tightening will likely help cool inflation in the second half of the year, Swonk said.
Nexamp just pulled off something that could speed up clean energy deployment across the US – and potentially lower costs for everyone. The Boston-based solar developer just finished building three new solar farms in Maine and Massachusetts. But instead of waiting on the utility to handle all the grid hookup work, Nexamp did it themselves.
That might not sound groundbreaking at first, but in the world of renewable energy, it’s a pretty big deal. Normally, utilities are in charge of any grid upgrades and interconnection work needed before a new solar project can start sending power to homes and businesses. That process can be very slow and expensive.
Nexamp’s new approach, called “self-performance,” flips the script. It lets developers take on some of that work, like ordering and installing equipment, so they don’t have to sit around waiting for the utility to schedule it. That means solar farms can get online faster, which gets clean power to the grid sooner and keeps project costs in check.
The three projects that kicked off this self-performance effort are:
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Hartland Solar – 1.2 MW DC in Hartland, ME
Barre Road Solar – 1.3 MW DC in New Braintree, MA
Summit Farm Solar – 2.6 MW DC, also in New Braintree
Nexamp didn’t go rogue – they worked closely with Central Maine Power and National Grid on the interconnection designs, safety standards, and technical specs. But by handling the actual procurement and construction, Nexamp had way more control over cost, timing, and supply chain headaches.
“Self-performance lets us take much greater control over interconnection procurement and construction,” said Daniel Passarello, Nexamp’s lead consulting engineer for grid integration. “We can move much of the interconnection work forward at the same time as the solar farm build instead of treating them as separate. That helps us bring projects online faster and stay closer to budget.”
It also helps that Nexamp already has solid relationships with suppliers. Instead of going through multiple layers of utility procurement, they can go straight to the source, fast.
That kind of streamlining is exactly what the solar industry needs right now. Community solar is booming – as of the end of 2024, nearly 8 gigawatts of it have been installed across the US, according to the the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), and that number is expected to almost double by 2030. But bottlenecks in the interconnection process slow things down.
Sara Birmingham, VP of state affairs at SEIA, called Nexamp’s move a step in the right direction. “We must modernize and streamline the interconnection process to keep pace with fast-growing demand,” she said. “Self-performance is one of several innovative approaches that can accelerate project timelines and lower costs, which benefits all ratepayers.”
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Genesis GV90 with coach doors spotted in California (Source: KindelAuto/ TheKoreanCarBlog)
When Genesis first previewed its full-size electric SUV, the coach doors were one of the biggest highlights. It looks like it will actually make its way into the production vehicle. A Genesis GV90 model was spotted in the US for the first time with coach doors, offering a glimpse of the upcoming ultra-luxury SUV.
Genesis GV90 spotted with coach doors in California
We got our first look at the full-size luxury SUV after Genesis unveiled the Neolun concept at the NY Auto Show last March.
Genesis said the concept was its “ultra-luxe vision of luxury SUVs,” and it wasn’t kidding. When it arrives, it will be sold as the GV90 as the brand’s new flagship vehicle.
The GV90 is not just a pretty-looking luxury SUV. It’s also loaded with Hyundai’s most advanced software and tech. According to Luc Donckerwolke, Genesis’ head of creative design, “it’s the epitome of timeless design and sophisticated craftsmanship.
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Last month, we got a sneak peek of the interior after a production-ready GV90 was caught in California. Although somewhat toned down from the original concept, the cabin still featured many of the same elements.
Genesis Neolun ultra-luxury electric SUV concept (Source: Genesis)
Another Genesis GV90 was recently spotted in California, with actual coach doors. The new images from KindelAuto (via TheKoreanCarBlog) show a camouflaged vehicle with a hinge at the rear, where the coach doors will open.
Genesis GV90 with coach doors spotted in California (Source: KindelAuto/ TheKoreanCarBlog)
Genesis said that B-pillarless coach doors are now feasible in production vehicles, like the GV90. However, don’t expect it to come standard on all models.
The feature will likely be reserved for higher-priced trims. We’ve seen other variants, featuring traditional doors, that are being tested in the US and Korea.
Genesis is expected to launch the GV90 in mid-2026. We will learn prices and final specs closer to launch, but the flagship electric SUV is set to debut on Hyundai’s new eM platform.
Hyundai said the platform is designed for EVs across all segments and will “provide a 50 percent improvement in driving range” compared to current EVs. It will also support Level 3 or higher autonomous driving capabilities and OTA software updates.
During the shareholders’ call following the earnings results yesterday, Tesla was asked about what the new affordable model would look like. Tesla’s CFO, Vaibhav Taneja, initially stated that they wouldn’t disclose details about the design, but then Musk interrupted him and said, “It’s a Model Y.”
It’s hard to hear exactly on the call because he talked over Taneja, but he said, “the cat is out of the bag” and confirmed that the new vehicle is simply a Model Y.
Electrek has been reporting on this fact all year. We have known for months that Tesla’s upcoming “new affordable models” are Model 3 and Model Y with a stripped-down interior with fewer features, like no rear screen, and cheaper materials:
However, this fact was not accepted in the Tesla community because CEO Elon Musk falsely denied a report last year about Tesla’s “$25,000” EV model being canceled.
The facts are that Musk canceled two cheaper vehicles that Tesla was working on, commonly referred as “the $25,000 Tesla” in early 2024. Those vehicles were codenamed NV91 and NV92, and they were based on the new vehicle platform that Tesla is now reserving for the Cybercab.
Instead, Musk noticed that Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production lines were starting to be underutilized as the Company faced demand issues. Therefore, Tesla canceled the vehicle programs based on the new platform and decided to build new vehicles on Model 3/Y platform using the same production lines.
Now, only the new Cybercab is going to be based on the new unboxed platform.
During the conference call last night, Musk stated that the primary goal of the more affordable Model Y is to expand the market by making the vehicle more accessible to a broader audience. He suggested that it will go on sale in Q4.
I think we can expect changes, such as using cloth materials instead of vegan leather, no rear display, no ambient lighting, and a lesser audio system.
In the case of the Model Y, Tesla may consider dropping some exterior lighting features, such as the light bars.
I wouldn’t be surprised also to see some powertrain changes. Maybe a less powerful RWD motor.
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