Inflation continued to retreat in March as energy prices pulled back from a year ago, when they began to spike due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But swings in gasoline and other energy mask price pressures that, while easing, remain under the surface, economists said.
“It’s improving and the economy is cooling, but it’s still far from tepid,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said of inflation.
The consumer price index, a key gauge of inflation, rose by 5% in March relative to 12 months earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.
The index measures price changes across a broad basket of consumer goods and services, like food, housing, electronics and recreation.
The latest annual reading declined from 6% in February. The reduction doesn’t mean prices fell; they’re still rising, just more slowly than a year ago.
A little bit of inflation is good — policymakers aim for about 2% a year, according to a different but related measure.
While still “painfully high,” inflation has eased significantly from its peak of more than 9% in June 2022, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. Inflation seems poised to fall back to policymakers’ target by this time next year, barring any unforeseen derailments, he said.
“Inflation is fundamentally moderating,” Zandi said. “And all the trend lines look good.
“I can say that with increasing confidence.”
What drove inflation in March 2023
Housing was a “notable” inflation driver in March and over the past year, according to the BLS.
The shelter index increased 8.2% in the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in consumer prices after stripping out the volatile energy and food categories. Other notable annual increases include motor vehicle insurance (15%), household furnishings and operations (5.6%), recreation (4.8%) and new vehicles (6.1%), the bureau said.
“There are a lot of categories that continue to see outsized increases month after month,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “And [some of] those are categories that are staples in the household budget.”
“We’ve got to see improvement in terms of moderating price pressures across a broad range of categories,” he added.
The overall energy index is down 6.4% in the past year.
Average U.S. gasoline prices topped out over $5 a gallon in June 2022, following a surge in oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The price increase for both regular motor gasoline and diesel fuel from February to March 2022 was the largest monthly gain on record, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
It’s improving and the economy is cooling, but it’s still far from tepid.
Housing accounts for the largest share of average household expenses. Elevated inflation in housing has therefore served to prop up CPI readings.
There’s been a “huge” moderation in newly signed rent agreements, said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. But price changes generally take nine months to a year to flow into CPI reports, due to how economists calculate price changes in the housing category, he said.
“The big uncertainty is: We know housing costs should start to moderate … soon [in the CPI], but none of us know exactly when,” Ashworth said.
The food at home index (i.e., grocery prices) fell 0.3% in March, its first monthly decline since September 2020. That’s due to a combination of things like lower prices for diesel, a key component in transporting food to stores, and easing supply-chain issues, Zandi said.
“It signals the food inflation fever has been broken,” Zandi said.
Why inflation popped up and remains high
Consumer prices began rising rapidly in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown. Americans unleashed a flurry of pent-up demand for dining out, entertainment and vacations, aided by savings amassed from government relief.
Meanwhile, the rapid economic restart snarled global supply chains, a dynamic exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with consumers’ willingness to spend.
Inflation was initially siloed in categories of physical goods like used cars and trucks. But the dynamic has morphed.
“The supply shortage was very much a 2021, 2022 story,” Ashworth said.
Richard Ross | The Image Bank | Getty Images
Now, inflation is more a story of “services,” which includes categories like haircuts, auto insurance, airline fares, medical care and rent, economists said.
That’s largely due to conditions in the job market, characterized by historic demand for workers, low unemployment and strong wage growth, economists said. Higher labor costs pressure businesses to raise their prices, especially in labor-intensive service industries, economists said. While the labor market remains hot, it has been gradually cooling.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation. This mechanism aims to increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, who pare back spending, thereby cooling the economy and labor market and, ultimately, inflation.
Recent turmoil in the banking sector is expected to reduce banks’ willingness to make loans — and those tighter credit conditions are expected to further cool the economy and help tame inflation.
That credit tightening will likely help cool inflation in the second half of the year, Swonk said.
The average US new car price crossed the $50,000 mark for the first time in September, according to new estimates from Kelley Blue Book (KBB). Prices have been climbing steadily for over a year, and the pace picked up this summer – but that hasn’t stopped Americans from buying.
KBB says September’s record average transaction price (ATP) was partly driven by luxury models and EVs, which pushed the market into record territory. EVs made up an estimated 11.6% of all new vehicles sold last month, which is also a record high. The average EV sold for $58,124 – up 3.5% from August’s adjusted figure.
In Q3, EV sales hit another milestone: 437,487 EVs were sold in the US, giving them a 10.5% market share. That’s nearly a 30% jump from the same period last year. With government-backed EV incentives expiring at the end of September, many buyers hurried to lock in their purchases.
Year-over-year, the average EV transaction price is basically flat, down just 0.4%. Incentives averaged 15.3% of ATP in September, or about $8,900 per vehicle – slightly lower than August but higher than a year ago, when incentives averaged 13%.
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Tesla, which continues to dominate the EV market, saw an average ATP of $54,138 in September. That’s a slight dip from August and down 6.8% from a year earlier. With Tesla recently introducing the new Standard versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, KBB expects average prices across the segment to fall in the coming months. Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, thinks the market is “ripe for disruption.”
“It is important to remember that the new-vehicle market is inflationary. Prices go up over time, and today’s market is certainly reminding us of that,” said Keating. “The $20,000 vehicle is now mostly extinct, and many price-conscious buyers are sidelined or cruising in the used-vehicle market. Tariffs have introduced new cost pressure to the business, but the pricing story in September was mostly driven by the healthy mix of EVs and higher-end vehicles pushing the new-vehicle ATP into uncharted territory.”
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It’s official. The Genesis GV70 is about to get two new electrified options, including its first hybrid and extended-range (EREV) versions.
Two new Genesis GV70 electrified SUVs are coming soon
Genesis is turning 10, and it’s planning to go all out. Hyundai gave us a look at what’s coming last month during its CEO Investor Day.
The plans include Genesis expanding with new electrified powertrain offerings, including its first hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles.
Up until now, the luxury automaker has focused on fully electric (EV) or internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. By expanding into different electrified powertrains, Genesis hopes to attract new buyers to the brand while grabbing a bigger share of the luxury market.
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Genesis will launch its first hybrid in 2026, the GV80. We knew the GV70 EREV would follow shortly after, but now it’s been confirmed that a hybrid model is also set to join the lineup.
We got our first look at the Genesis GV70 EREV last week. The vehicle was parked in South Korea and appeared to be nearly identical to the current model. Aside from a tag labeling it an EREV and a massive muffler at the back, it looks about the same as the Electrified GV70.
Now, we are finally getting a glimpse of the Hybrid version. The Genesis GV70 Hybrid was also caught by HealerTV in South Korea, this time with an HEV tag.
Like the EREV, the GV70 Hybrid is still covered in camouflage, but this time, you can see the vehicle has the brand’s sport package. The optional package adds sporty exterior and interior elements, including chrome around the Crest Grille and window trim.
The Genesis Electrified GV70 (Source: Genesis)
The vehicle is still a prototype, so it could change by the time it reaches production form. However, as the reporter points out, the GV70 Hybrid could bring a unique new look to the GV70 series.
On the side of the tire, the letters “FL” are printed, which is typically shown on Hyundai vehicles set to receive a facelift.
Genesis plans to launch new luxury EVs, hybrids, and EREVs (Source: Hyundai)
Genesis is expected to launch the GV70 EREV in late 2026, followed by the Hybrid version sometime in early 2027.
According to Hyundai, the EREV will have a combined driving range of over 1,000 km (620 miles). Although it still runs on an electric motor, it will feature a small gas motor that acts as a generator to charge the battery and extend the driving range.
Genesis is betting on new electrified vehicles, including EVs, hybrids, and EREVs, to drive growth. The luxury brand aims to expand into up to 20 new European markets while gaining a bigger share of the US market. By 2030, Genesis aims to sell 350,000 vehicles.
Although it had planned to only offer fully electric vehicles from 2030, Genesis backed off on its commitment. Instead, it will use hybrids and EREVs as a bridge to an all-electric future.
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Duracell, the iconic US battery brand that started in the 1920s, is crossing the Atlantic to launch its first-ever EV fast charging network, Duracell E-Charge, in the UK.
Sales of gas and diesel cars will end by 2030 in the UK, which is driving EV sales and charging infrastructure growth. With more than £200 million ($266 million) in planned investment over the next decade, Duracell E-Charge is getting on the bandwagon with an aim to improve the fast charging experience.
Duracell has licensed its new network to Elektra Charge, a charge point operator set up to run the Duracell E-Charge network. The EV Network (EVN), one of the UK’s top charging infrastructure developers, will fund and build the charging hubs.
“The need for faster, more reliable charging to keep pace with EV adoption is clear,” said Reza Shaybani, CEO of The EV Network. “Duracell E-Charge is a direct response to that challenge.”
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Duracell’s EV fast charging network will feature 400 kW ultra-fast chargers where drivers can pay via app, contactless, or plug-and-go. Each site will have intuitive interfaces, clear signage, and 24/7 support.
The first six Duracell E-Charge sites will come online in 2025. The Sunday Timesreported that Duracell plans to grow its charging network to at least 100 charging stations with at least 500 charging points by 2030. The hubs will be strategically located along major motorways, near retail and hospitality venues, and at key city gateways.
“Charging your car should be as simple as changing the batteries in your remote,” said Mark Bloxham, managing director of Duracell E-Charge. “Plug. Play. Go.”
Electrek’s Take
I asked Duracell whether it had plans to launch Duracell E-Charge in the US, and I’ll update this story if I hear back. But if you want to know why this American legacy company launched its first DC fast charging network in the UK instead of the US, it’s a simple answer. Business-friendly, stable government policy.
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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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