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The overall supply of candidates for jobs has increased for the first time in more than two years, a survey of recruiters suggests.

While the rise in the availability of workers in March was “modest”, it marks the first such upturn in the UK since February 2021, a report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG said.

Researchers said the increase was driven by improvements in the availability of both permanent and temporary staff amid greater “confidence among job seekers” – alongside “signs of a relative improvement in hiring conditions”.

The rise suggests that the tide could slowly be beginning to turn on labour market tightness in the British economy which has prompted widespread concern in recent years.

REC chief executive Neil Carberry said that while staff shortages remained a major challenge for many firms, the overall increase in available candidates was “big news”.

“This suggests that, while the market is still tight, it should be getting gradually easier for firms to hire over the next few months,” he said.

“The continuing fast rate of pay growth is likely reflective of the impact of inflation on wage offers, as well as low labour supply. That means increasing pay is likely to persist, despite more people beginning to look for work.”

Mr Carberry added that it was “still a good time to be looking for work”, particularly in hospitality, healthcare, accountancy and financial roles.

However the report cautioned that redundancies amid economic uncertainty had also contributed to the numbers of fresh candidates looking for work – and that the jobs market was still lagging far behind pre-pandemic levels.

Mr Carberry warned that government and businesses still needed to do more to attract potential employees, arguing that the chancellor’s recent budget measures had not gone far enough.

He said: “This cautious optimism belies the scale of the challenge we face in tackling shortages and addressing economic inactivity.”

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The UK Report on Jobs, which is based on a survey of around 400 recruitment and employment consultancies, said the availability of staff to fill roles hit 51.4 on its index in March – the first time it has been in positive territory in 25 months.

Any figure above 50 on the seasonally-adjusted index indicates an improvement on the month before.

A ‘curate’s egg’ for jobs

Since 2019 the supply of workers had been rising sharply in the UK, according to the index, until it plunged as COVID-19 hit the economy. The previous increase, in February 2021, had only been a “fractional” rise following a spate of pandemic-related redundancies, with the next two years then continuing to see a decline in staff availability.

Today’s report also suggests that starting salaries and total vacancies are continuing on an upward trend, although growth in the number of jobs on offer was down slightly on February’s data.

Claire Warnes, a partner at KPMG, described March as being a “curate’s egg” for jobs.

“While the labour market continues to show resilience, it is nowhere near pre-pandemic levels of stability,” she said.

The report further found that growth in temp billings hit a six-month high in March, suggesting that uncertainty about the economy had prompted firms to opt for temporary hires over permanent placements, the latter of which saw a “marginal” decline.

Delivery giant Just Eat is among the companies to recently switch to a greater reliance on temporary workers. It announced plans last month to axe 1,700 jobs as part of moves to replace its hybrid system of employees and self-employed with gig economy workers.

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Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

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Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

Food inflation will rise to 6% by the end of the year – posing a “significant challenge” to household budgets in the run-up to Christmas, industry leaders have predicted.

The British Retail Consortium is warning that the chancellor risks “fanning the flames of inflation” if she hikes taxes in the coming budget.

Despite intense price competition between supermarket chains, the BRC has sounded the alarm over the pace of grocery price hikes.

As of this month, food inflation has risen 4% year on year – its highest level since February 2024.

The BRC said this increase is linked to global factors, such as high demand and crop struggles.

Beef, chicken and tea prices are among those that have risen the most this year – but some of the blame is being laid squarely at the chancellor’s door too.

The BRC said it was inevitable that a £7bn burden, through changes to employers’ national insurance contributions and minimum pay rules after last October’s budget, had been partly passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.

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Will we see tax rises in next budget?

It published the results of a survey of retail industry finance chiefs to illustrate its point – that nerves about what Ms Reeves’s second budget could bring were not helping companies invest in either new employment or prices.

Business was promised it would be spared additional pain after it was put on the hook for the bulk of the chancellor’s tax-raising measures last year.

However, speculation is now rife over who will feel the pain this autumn as she juggles a deterioration in the public finances.

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Options for wealth tax

A widening black hole is estimated at around £20bn.

The cost of servicing government debt has risen since the last budget, while U-turns on welfare reforms and winter fuel payment cuts have made her job even harder – making further tax-raising measures inevitable.

The survey of chief financial officers for the BRC showed the biggest current fear ahead was for the “tax and regulatory burden”.

Two-thirds of the CFOs predicted further price rises in the coming year, at a time when the headline rate inflation already remains stuck way above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

It currently stands at 3.6%.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Retail was squarely in the firing line of the last budget, with the industry hit by £7bn in new costs and taxes.

“Retailers have done everything they can to shield their customers from higher costs, but given their slim margins and the rising cost of employing staff, price rises were inevitable.

“The consequences are now being felt by households as many struggle to cope with the rising cost of their weekly shop.

“It is up to the chancellor to decide whether to fan the flames of inflation, or to support the everyday economy by backing the high street and the local jobs they provide.”

She concluded: “Retail accounts for 5% of the economy yet currently pays 7.4% of business taxes and a whopping 21% of all business rates.

“It is vital the upcoming reforms offer a meaningful reduction in retailers’ rates bill, and ensures no store pays more as a result of the changes.”

The Treasury has been approached for comment.

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US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

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US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

The Federal Reserve has defied calls from US President Donald Trump for a cut to the interest rate by leaving it unchanged.

The decision means it has an effective rate of 4.3%, where it has remained after the central bank, known as the Fed, reduced it three times last year.

“We’re keeping the rates high, and it’s hurting people from buying houses,” Mr Trump told reporters. “All because of the Fed.”

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Mr Trump has repeatedly been asked whether he would fire Fed chair Jerome Powell if he failed to heed his demand to cut the rate.

In June, the US president labelled Mr Powell a “stupid person” after the Fed decided not to change rates. Then less than two weeks later, in a further attack, he said the Fed’s chair should “ashamed” and would “love” him to resign.

The US president has spent months verbally attacking Mr Powell.

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There were clear tensions between the pair last Thursday as they toured the Federal Reserve in Washington DC, which is undergoing renovations.

When taking questions, Mr Trump said: “I’d love him to lower interest rates,” then laughed and slapped Powell’s arm.

Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
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There were clear tensions between the US President and Mr Powell during last week’s visit to the Federal Reserve. Pic: Reuters

The US president also challenged him, in front of reporters, about an alleged overspend on the renovations and produced paperwork to prove his point. Mr Powell shook his head as Trump made the claim.

When Mr Trump was asked what he would do as a real estate mogul if this happened to one of his projects, he said he’d fire his project manager – seemingly in reference to Mr Powell.

Donald Trump challenges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about the cost of renovations
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Donald Trump challenged Mr Powell in front of reporters. Pic: Reuters

Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

The Fed has expressed concern about the impact of Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of implementing new tariffs, taxes on imports to the US.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

On Wednesday, the president said he was still negotiating with India on trade after announcing the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country from Friday.

Mr Trump also signed an executive order on Wednesday implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff amount to 50%, excluding certain products, including oil and precious metals.

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The committee which sets rates voted 9 to 2 to keep the benchmark rate steady, the two dissenters were appointees of President Trump who believe monetary policy is too tight.

In a policy statement to explain their decision, the Federal Reserve said that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” but growth “moderated in the first half of the year,” possibly bolstering the case to lower rates at a future meeting.

Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, described the rate decision as a “kind of a nothing burger” and it was “widely expected”.

Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, agreed that it was “broadly as expected”. He added: “That explains why you’re not seeing a lot of movement in the market right now because there’s nothing that’s surprising.”

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Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

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Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

The investment giant Apollo Global Management is close to snapping up a stake in Motor Fuel Group (MFG), one of Britain’s biggest petrol forecourt empires, in a deal valuing it about £7bn.

Sky News has learnt that Apollo could announce as soon as Thursday that it has agreed to buy a large minority stake in MFG from Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), its current majority-owner.

The transaction will come after several months of talks involving CD&R and a range of prospective investors in a company which is rapidly expanding its presence in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure arena.

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Banking sources said there had been a “large appetite” to invest in the next phase of MFG’s growth, with CD&R having built the company from a mid-sized industry player over the course of more than a decade.

Lazard and Royal Bank of Canada are understood to be advising on the deal.

A stake of roughly 25-30% in MFG has been expected to change hands during the process, with Apollo’s investment said to be broadly in that range.

MFG is the largest independent forecourt operator in the UK, having grown from 360 sites at the point of CD&R’s acquisition of the company.

It trades under a number of brands, including Esso and Shell.

CD&R, which also owns the supermarket chain Morrisons, united MFG’s petrol forecourt businesses with that of the grocer in a £2.5bn transaction, which completed nearly 18 months ago.

MFG now comprises roughly 1,200 sites across Britain, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of about £700m anticipated in this financial year.

It is now focused on its role in the energy transition, with hundreds of electric vehicle charging points installed across its network, and growing its high-margin foodservice offering.

MFG has outlined plans to invest £400m in EV charging, and is now the second-largest ultra-rapid player in the UK – which delivers 100 miles of range in ten minutes – with close to 1,000 chargers.

It aims to grow that figure to 3,000 by 2030.

CD&R, which declined to comment on Wednesday afternoon, will retain a controlling stake in MFG after any stake sale, while Morrisons also holds a 20% interest in the company.

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Bankers expect that the minority deal with Apollo will be followed a couple of years later with an initial public offering on the London stock market.

CD&R invested in MFG in 2015, making its investment a long-term one by the standards of most private equity holding periods.

The sale of a large minority stake at a £7bn enterprise valuation will crystallise a positive return for the US-based buyout firm.

CD&R and its investors have already been paid hundreds of millions of pounds in dividends from MFG, having seen its earnings grow 14-fold since the original purchase.

Morrisons’ rival, Asda, has undertaken a similar transaction with its petrol forecourts, with EG Group acquiring the Leeds-based grocer’s forecourt network.

EG Group, which along with Asda is controlled by private equity firm TDR Capital, is now being prepared for a listing in the US.

Apollo declined to comment.

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