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close video The Fed risks ‘overshooting’ its inflation, rate hike goals: Diane Swonk

KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk says it’s important to remember rapid rate hikes can exacerbate market fragility.

A high-stakes inflation report due Wednesday is expected to show that price pressures within the economy remained strong last month despite an aggressive interest rate hike campaign by the Federal Reserve.

Economists expect the consumer price index, which measures a basket of goods, including gasoline, health care, groceries and rent, to show that monthly prices rose 0.2% in March, down slightly from an increase of 0.4% February. On an annual basis, inflation is projected to have climbed 5.1% at an annual rate, a decline from 6% the previous month and a peak of 9.1% in June. 

While that would mark the slowest pace of inflation since May 2021, it remains nearly three times higher than the Fed's 2% target. 

Other parts of the report are also expected to point to a slow retreat for inflation, a worrisome sign for the U.S. central bank. Core prices, which exclude the more volatile measurements of food and energy, are expected to climb 0.4% or 5.6% annually, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain strong. 

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"Core inflation, and core services, should remain sticky-high," Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Monday,

The report is the last before the Federal Reserve's next policy-setting meeting May 2-3 and will have major implications for the U.S. central bank, which is tightening monetary policy at the fastest rate in decades as it tries to crush out-of-control inflation. 

Officials have already approved nine straight rate increases, lifting the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis. 

JAMIE DIMON WARNS BANKING CRISIS HAS RAISED ODDS OF RECESSION

Markets expect policymakers to approve another quarter-percentage point hike at the conclusion of their meeting next month despite upheaval in the banking system and concerns over a slowing economy. 

A man shops for meat at a Safeway grocery store in Annapolis, Md., May 16, 2022. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The probability that the Fed continues its rate hike campaign in May rose to 71% Wednesday, according to data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from 44.8% just one week ago. About 28% of traders, meanwhile, are expecting central bankers to pause the rate hikes. 

"The Fed's policy should continue to have the desired impact on price pressures," said Michael Weisz, president of the investment firm Yieldstreet. "However, the target rate of 2% continues to be a long way off from the current path. The 'higher for longer' thesis may include both interest rates, as well as overall price levels, and thus slowing inflation may not happen as quickly as desired."

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Shoppers in a Kroger supermarket Oct. 14, 2022, in Atlanta. (Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The Fed is also watching other economic indicators, including job growth and consumer inflation expectations. In another welcoming sign for the central bank, there were indications the labor market softened but did not deteriorate last week. 

The March jobs report showed employers added 236,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, and that monthly wages also cooled. 

"Employment growth has not yet collapsed, though there are visible signs of continued moderation," said Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide chief economist. "In all, the Federal Reserve will be pleased by the details of the employment report, but still is supportive of another rate hike in May, which we think could be the last for the tightening cycle, followed by a long pause."

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Rachel Reeves facing ‘pressure’, but ‘people should give her time’, says Wes Streeting

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Rachel Reeves facing 'pressure', but 'people should give her time', says Wes Streeting

The health secretary has said that the cabinet is aware of the “pressure” on Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid volatile markets and a challenging broader economic picture – but appealed for the public to “give her time”.

Wes Streeting argued that the public “underestimates” the “amount of heavy-lifting” Ms Reeves has had to do and will have to continue to do, as he declared “total confidence” in her leadership in a staunch defence of her handling of the economy.

Separately, international development minister Anneliese Dodds, who attends cabinet, told Sky News that Ms Reeves has been “very clear about the long-term plan for our country” and she herself is “confident in that long-term plan”.

The comments from the two key ministers come after the past week saw a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.

Streeting has ‘total confidence in chancellor’s leadership’

Speaking at the Jewish Labour Movement’s annual conference in north London, the health secretary acknowledged the fierce competition among all government departments for any available public funding from the Treasury, and told party members that all ministers “have to make choices and trade-offs” in where funding goes.

Mr Streeting went on to say that the chancellor and her deputy, Darren Jones, have “the hardest job of all because they have to make those choices across every bit of government spending, and they have to think about what’s in the interests of our overall economy and how we get businesses growing”.

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Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China

He said: “I think people continue to underestimate both the amount of heavy lifting she has had to do in her first six months, and the amount of heavy lifting she will have to do in her next six months.

“And the cabinet doesn’t underestimate that – we understand the choices she has to make, the pressure she is under.”

As a result, cabinet ministers all “have a responsibility” to both “make tough choices and drive reform and value for money” within their departments, and also be “drivers of economic growth”.

“Nothing in the last six months has shaken my conviction that economic growth is the number one priority,” he said.

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Continuing his defence of the chancellor’s handling of the economy so far, Mr Streeting said she is “trying to break us out of what has been the status quo and the economic orthodoxy of more than a decade”.

“People need to give her time, and they need to not forget that, without [Sir Keir Starmer’s] leadership, certainly we wouldn’t have won the last general election.

“Without Rachel’s leadership, we wouldn’t have won the last general election either. She built Labour’s economic credibility out of the ashes they were left in after the Corbyn leadership. And she has built that trust, built up that plan, and now she’s following through.”

He declared that he has “total confidence in the leadership that Rachel’s providing, and the leadership that the cabinet is following and driving with her, because all of us have to deliver economic growth for our country”.

Minister ‘confident in chancellor’s long-term plan’

Speaking in a separate session at the conference, Ms Dodds noted “speculation” about the fiscal headroom (the amount of money the chancellor will have available to spend), but said: “We have to focus on actually the evidence.

“And when we look at the evidence, we can see that the UK government has a chancellor who is very clear about the long-term plan for our country. She’s been delivering on it.”

Read more:
Even if Siddiq resigns, the damage may already be done to Starmer
Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor

Ms Dodds, who also attends cabinet, pointed to a “new fiscal system”, the chancellor’s new Industrial Strategy Council, as well as “record levels of investment under Rachel Reeves’s leadership”.

“I think it’s really important for us to focus on those fundamentals, on what has been achieved in a very short space of time. And I’m confident in that long-term plan that Rachel has been setting out.

“And we can already see the benefit of that, frankly, in terms of the UK’s reputation when it comes to public finances, but economic management more generally. Certainly that’s what I’ve heard internationally and keep hearing just now.”

Chancellor accused of having ‘fled to China’

Chancellor Rachel Reeves with Chinese vice premier He Lifeng  in Beijing. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Chancellor Rachel Reeves with Chinese vice premier He Lifeng in Beijing. Pic: Reuters

The pair were speaking as the chancellor holds meetings in China in a bid to drum up investment for the UK economy, having ignored calls to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.

Opposition parties have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, and former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.

Speaking during her trip, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability, and reiterated that “growth is the number one mission of this government”.

She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.

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Rachel Reeves facing ‘pressure’, but ‘people should give her time’, says Wes Streeting

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Rachel Reeves facing 'pressure', but 'people should give her time', says Wes Streeting

The health secretary has said that the cabinet is aware of the “pressure” on Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid volatile markets and a challenging broader economic picture – but appealed for the public to “give her time”.

Wes Streeting argued that the public “underestimates” the “amount of heavy-lifting” Ms Reeves has had to do and will have to continue to do, as he declared “total confidence” in her leadership in a staunch defence of her handling of the economy.

Separately, international development minister Anneliese Dodds, who attends cabinet, told Sky News that Ms Reeves has been “very clear about the long-term plan for our country” and she herself is “confident in that long-term plan”.

The comments from the two key ministers come after the past week saw a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.

Streeting has ‘total confidence in chancellor’s leadership’

Speaking at the Jewish Labour Movement’s annual conference in north London, the health secretary acknowledged the fierce competition among all government departments for any available public funding from the Treasury, and told party members that all ministers “have to make choices and trade-offs” in where funding goes.

Mr Streeting went on to say that the chancellor and her deputy, Darren Jones, have “the hardest job of all because they have to make those choices across every bit of government spending, and they have to think about what’s in the interests of our overall economy and how we get businesses growing”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China

He said: “I think people continue to underestimate both the amount of heavy lifting she has had to do in her first six months, and the amount of heavy lifting she will have to do in her next six months.

“And the cabinet doesn’t underestimate that – we understand the choices she has to make, the pressure she is under.”

As a result, cabinet ministers all “have a responsibility” to both “make tough choices and drive reform and value for money” within their departments, and also be “drivers of economic growth”.

“Nothing in the last six months has shaken my conviction that economic growth is the number one priority,” he said.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Continuing his defence of the chancellor’s handling of the economy so far, Mr Streeting said she is “trying to break us out of what has been the status quo and the economic orthodoxy of more than a decade”.

“People need to give her time, and they need to not forget that, without [Sir Keir Starmer’s] leadership, certainly we wouldn’t have won the last general election.

“Without Rachel’s leadership, we wouldn’t have won the last general election either. She built Labour’s economic credibility out of the ashes they were left in after the Corbyn leadership. And she has built that trust, built up that plan, and now she’s following through.”

He declared that he has “total confidence in the leadership that Rachel’s providing, and the leadership that the cabinet is following and driving with her, because all of us have to deliver economic growth for our country”.

Minister ‘confident in chancellor’s long-term plan’

Speaking in a separate session at the conference, Ms Dodds noted “speculation” about the fiscal headroom (the amount of money the chancellor will have available to spend), but said: “We have to focus on actually the evidence.

“And when we look at the evidence, we can see that the UK government has a chancellor who is very clear about the long-term plan for our country. She’s been delivering on it.”

Read more:
Even if Siddiq resigns, the damage may already be done to Starmer
Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor

Ms Dodds, who also attends cabinet, pointed to a “new fiscal system”, the chancellor’s new Industrial Strategy Council, as well as “record levels of investment under Rachel Reeves’s leadership”.

“I think it’s really important for us to focus on those fundamentals, on what has been achieved in a very short space of time. And I’m confident in that long-term plan that Rachel has been setting out.

“And we can already see the benefit of that, frankly, in terms of the UK’s reputation when it comes to public finances, but economic management more generally. Certainly that’s what I’ve heard internationally and keep hearing just now.”

Chancellor accused of having ‘fled to China’

Chancellor Rachel Reeves with Chinese vice premier He Lifeng  in Beijing. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Chancellor Rachel Reeves with Chinese vice premier He Lifeng in Beijing. Pic: Reuters

The pair were speaking as the chancellor holds meetings in China in a bid to drum up investment for the UK economy, having ignored calls to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.

Opposition parties have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, and former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.

Speaking during her trip, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability, and reiterated that “growth is the number one mission of this government”.

She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.

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Tulip Siddiq could lose job if found she broke rules amid housing allegations, cabinet member suggests

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Tulip Siddiq could lose job if found she broke rules amid housing allegations, cabinet member suggests

Anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq could lose her job if the investigation into her properties finds she broke government rules, a cabinet member has suggested.

Science Secretary Peter Kyle was asked about Ms Siddiq on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.

She has referred herself to the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministers’ interests, Sir Laurie Magnus, following reports she lived in properties in London linked to allies of her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, the deposed prime minister of Bangladesh.

There have also been questions about trips she took to Russia alongside her aunt.

Ms Siddiq insists she has “done nothing wrong”.

As economic secretary to the Treasury, Ms Siddiq oversees anti-corruption efforts in the financial sector as part of her brief.

Mr Kyle told Sky News: “With Tulip, she’s referred herself straight away to this.

“There is a process under way and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”

He gave this answer after Trevor pointed out Labour would have been calling for a sacking if the roles were reversed and the Tories were in power.

Read more:
Siddiq refers herself to ethics watchdog
Minister caught up in anti-corruption probe

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‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’

Mr Kyle contrasted his party’s stance with the Conservative one – saying he called for an investigation into allegations of bullying from Priti Patel, and she “had to be dragged to that inquiry”.

He added that he let the inquiry pan out.

“The results came out, she was found guilty, and no action happened,” Mr Kyle said.

His response came after Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for Ms Siddiq to be sacked yesterday.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride repeated the calls today to Sky News.

He said: “What is not right is that the prime minister is not moving her out of that position and getting her to step down

“Because she is the anti-corruption minister, she has serious charges laid against her now, or serious accusations around corruption, and it’s going to be really impossible for her to do that job under current circumstances.

“So she should step down, and the prime minister needs to get a grip of that.”

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The Sunday Times this week interviewed the current leader of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, who called for Ms Siddiq to be investigated.

He said the properties should be handed back to his government if they were acquired through “plain robbery”.

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