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close video The Fed risks ‘overshooting’ its inflation, rate hike goals: Diane Swonk

KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk says it’s important to remember rapid rate hikes can exacerbate market fragility.

A high-stakes inflation report due Wednesday is expected to show that price pressures within the economy remained strong last month despite an aggressive interest rate hike campaign by the Federal Reserve.

Economists expect the consumer price index, which measures a basket of goods, including gasoline, health care, groceries and rent, to show that monthly prices rose 0.2% in March, down slightly from an increase of 0.4% February. On an annual basis, inflation is projected to have climbed 5.1% at an annual rate, a decline from 6% the previous month and a peak of 9.1% in June. 

While that would mark the slowest pace of inflation since May 2021, it remains nearly three times higher than the Fed's 2% target. 

Other parts of the report are also expected to point to a slow retreat for inflation, a worrisome sign for the U.S. central bank. Core prices, which exclude the more volatile measurements of food and energy, are expected to climb 0.4% or 5.6% annually, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain strong. 

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"Core inflation, and core services, should remain sticky-high," Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Monday,

The report is the last before the Federal Reserve's next policy-setting meeting May 2-3 and will have major implications for the U.S. central bank, which is tightening monetary policy at the fastest rate in decades as it tries to crush out-of-control inflation. 

Officials have already approved nine straight rate increases, lifting the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis. 

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Markets expect policymakers to approve another quarter-percentage point hike at the conclusion of their meeting next month despite upheaval in the banking system and concerns over a slowing economy. 

A man shops for meat at a Safeway grocery store in Annapolis, Md., May 16, 2022. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The probability that the Fed continues its rate hike campaign in May rose to 71% Wednesday, according to data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from 44.8% just one week ago. About 28% of traders, meanwhile, are expecting central bankers to pause the rate hikes. 

"The Fed's policy should continue to have the desired impact on price pressures," said Michael Weisz, president of the investment firm Yieldstreet. "However, the target rate of 2% continues to be a long way off from the current path. The 'higher for longer' thesis may include both interest rates, as well as overall price levels, and thus slowing inflation may not happen as quickly as desired."

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Shoppers in a Kroger supermarket Oct. 14, 2022, in Atlanta. (Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The Fed is also watching other economic indicators, including job growth and consumer inflation expectations. In another welcoming sign for the central bank, there were indications the labor market softened but did not deteriorate last week. 

The March jobs report showed employers added 236,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, and that monthly wages also cooled. 

"Employment growth has not yet collapsed, though there are visible signs of continued moderation," said Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide chief economist. "In all, the Federal Reserve will be pleased by the details of the employment report, but still is supportive of another rate hike in May, which we think could be the last for the tightening cycle, followed by a long pause."

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Rare earth stocks surge on U.S-China trade dispute over the critical minerals

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Rare earth stocks surge on U.S-China trade dispute over the critical minerals

A dump truck moves raw ore inside the pit at the Mountain Pass mine, operated by MP Materials, in Mountain Pass, California, U.S., on Friday, June 7, 2019.

Joe Buglewicz | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Shares of U.S. rare earth miners surged in early trading Monday, after President Donald Trump threatened China with retaliation over its strict export controls.

USA Rare Earth soared more than 18%, Critical Metals surged 18%, Energy Fuels jumped more than 11%, and MP Materials rallied about 8%.

Trump on Friday threatened China with a “massive” increase in tariffs in retaliation for Beijing imposing strict export controls on rare earth elements. The president then dialed down his rhetoric on Sunday, saying the situation with China will “be fine.”

The Defense Department, meanwhile, is accelerating its effort to stockpile $1 billion worth of critical minerals, according to The Financial Times.

And JPMorgan Chase said Monday it would invest up to $10 billion in companies that are crucial to U.S. national security.

“It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing — all of which are essential for our national security,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in press release.

Rare earths are a subset of critical minerals that are crucial inputs in U.S. weapons platforms, robotics, electric vehicles and other applications.

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Bloom Energy shares soar more than 30% after striking deal with Brookfield to provide fuel cells to AI data centers

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Bloom Energy shares soar more than 30% after striking deal with Brookfield to provide fuel cells to AI data centers

Bloom Energy power storage equipment in San Ramon, California.

Smith Collection | Gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images

Shares of Bloom Energy surged Monday after striking a deal with Brookfield to deploy fuel cells for artificial intelligence data centers.

Brookfield will spend up to $5 billion to deploy Bloom Energy’s technology, the first investment in its strategy to support big AI data centers with power and computing infrastructure.

Shares of Bloom Energy were up more than 30% in early trading. Bloom’s fuel cells provide onsite power that can be deployed quickly because they do not rely on the electric grid.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC last week that the AI industry will need to build power off the electric to meet demand quickly and protect consumers from rising electricity prices.

“Data center self-generated power could move a lot faster than putting it on the grid and we have to do that,” Huang told CNBC on Oct. 8.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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JPMorgan Chase says it will invest $10 billion into industries critical for national security

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JPMorgan Chase says it will invest  billion into industries critical for national security

JPMorgan Chase says it will invest $10 billion into industries critical for national security

JPMorgan Chase on Monday said it is launching a decade-long plan to help finance and take direct stakes in companies it considers crucial to U.S. interests.

The bank said in a statement it would invest up to $10 billion into companies in four areas: defense and aerospace, “frontier” technologies including AI and quantum computing, energy technology including batteries, and supply chain and advanced manufacturing.

The money is part of a broader effort, dubbed the Security and Resiliency Initiative, in which JPMorgan said it will finance or facilitate $1.5 trillion in funding for companies it identifies as crucial. It said the total amount is 50% more than a previous plan.

“It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing — all of which are essential for our national security,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in the release.

As the biggest American bank by assets and a Wall Street juggernaut, JPMorgan was already raising funds and lending money to companies in those industries. But the move helps organize the company’s activities around national interests at a time of heightened tensions between the U.S. and China.

On Friday, markets tumbled as President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports after the major U.S. trading partner tightened export controls on rare earths.

In the release, Dimon said that the U.S. needs to “remove obstacles” including excessive regulations, “bureaucratic delay” and “partisan gridlock.”

JPMorgan said that within the four major areas, there were 27 specific industries it would look to support with advice, financing and investments. That includes areas as diverse as nanomaterials, autonomous robots, spacecraft and space launches, and nuclear and solar power.

“Our security is predicated on the strength and resiliency of America’s economy,” Dimon said. “This new initiative includes efforts like ensuring reliable access to life-saving medicines and critical minerals, defending our nation, building energy systems to meet AI-driven demand and advancing technologies like semiconductors and data centers.”

The bank said it would hire an unspecified numbers of bankers and create an external advisory council to support its initiative.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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