Commercial real estate could see crisis as office space goes unused

Published

2 years ago

April 13, 2023

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close video Commercial real estate industry on edge as downtown empty office space goes unused

Some financial analyst worry that the commercial real estate industry is in danger due to the increase of vacant office space with the rise of remote work.

Some Morgan Stanley financial analysts say the commercial real estate industry could be headed for a crisis worse than the 2008 great recession. This comes after businesses have left downtowns across the country with an increase in remote work and higher interest rates.

Many downtown buildings are owned by investment firms who rely on bank loans. But with businesses not renting as much office space and rising interest rates, some worry these firms may not have the money to pay back the banks.

In downtown Minneapolis, people are returning to see the Minnesota Twins play ball, attend a concert or catch a Broadway show.

"As we sit here today, we're really beginning to move in a positive direction," Steve Cramer, president and CEO of the Minneapolis Downtown Council and Downtown Improvement District, said. "Like all downtowns, that pandemic hit like a ton of bricks and things really shut down. Then we of course, had the murder of George Floyd here in our city and that caused civil unrest here, and had implications around the country, around the globe. And so we've really been kind of working our way back from that set of events in 2020."

INVESTORS RETREAT FROM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BONDS

Employees working in downtown Minneapolis use the skywalk to avoid the chilly weather. The Minneapolis Downtown Council says about 65% of people are coming into the office at least once a week, up from 50% in 2022. (Mills Hayes/Fox News / Fox News)

Cramer worries about the office buildings that are 30 to 40 years old.

"We have to focus some attention on what can a new life for those buildings be? Maybe they can be converted into residential units," Cramer said. "The newer buildings with amenities, I think are going to do just fine in attracting the office demand."

Last week AT & T announced it was leaving downtown Minneapolis for the suburbs.

"The move will be complete by the end of August, allowing us to use our office space more effectively. It’s important to note that these jobs will remain in the greater Minneapolis area, and we remain committed to Minnesota," Clay Owens, director of public relations for AT&T, said.

Andy Babula is the Director of the Real Estate Program and the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas.

"People are working from home a lot more now. If they do want to go into the office, they're going to want somewhere nearby," Babula said about the decision to move to the suburbs where many employees tend to live.

CBRE Global Commercial Real Estate Services says office vacancy rose during the 2008 financial crisis, but it was led by a recession. This rise is vacant office space is driven by a structural shift from the pandemic to remote work. (Fox News / Fox News)

According to CBRE Global Commercial Real Estate Services, in New York City there has been a 7.6% increase in empty office space since the pandemic. In Seattle, an 8.2% increase and in San Francisco, a whopping 25.4% increase.

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEBT CREATES MORE BANK WORRIES

CBRE says that San Francisco has a large amount of tech tenants, and they have viewed returning to work in person differently. Many employees are asked to come back to work on a more voluntary basis, which explains why they saw such a sharp increase in empty office space in comparison to other cities.

People who live in downtown Minneapolis say empty office space surrounds them. (Mills Hayes/Fox News / Fox News)

In Minneapolis, there’s only been a 2.1% increase in empty space, but some worry the problem could get worse.

"If the pandemic started three years ago, people may still have a few years left on their lease. So, over the next couple of years, we are going to be seeing these leases expire and companies as they expire will likely either vacate or downsize," Babula said.

Babula also said there is concern that the value of the buildings will decrease and impact the tax base.

US REAL ESTATE HAS ‘MONUMENTAL OPPORTUNITY’ TO SOLVE HOUSING CRISIS IN 2023: EXPERT

"The city like Minneapolis is going to collect less taxes from every building downtown if its value is lower by 20 to 30%. That's less taxes in their pocket, and that has to then get shifted to others in the city, to the residents and other businesses throughout the city. So that's a concern as well," Babula said.

With less demand for office space, investment firms who own these downtown buildings may not have enough money to pay off their loans to the banks.

In quarter one of 2020, Seattle had 9.4% of empty office space in downtown. By 2023, that number has grown to 17.6 % of empty office space. (Fox News / Fox News)

"Do we believe that we're going to see defaults? Absolutely. Are we keeping a close eye on the banks that hold a lot of these loans? Absolutely, but generally we believe that we are going to be able to come through the other end of this with some scratches and bruises, but nothing that is going to drive the collapse of the banking system," Julie Whelan, head of global head of occupier thought leadership at CBRE, said.

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Whelan said downtowns are not dying by any means, they're just going through an evolution right now. Many are shifting towards a footprint of more residential, retail and entertainment to make up for the office crowds leaving.

"If the different sides of the private sector and the public sector can come together and create an impetus drive to change in our cities that we’ll actually come out feeling stronger when we look ahead 10 years from now," Whelan said.

Environment

Tesla Semi suffers more delays and ‘dramatic’ price increase

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3 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Tesla Semi suffers more delays and 'dramatic' price increase

According to a Tesla Semi customer, the electric truck program is suffering more delays and a price increase that is described as “dramatic.”

Tesla Semi has seen many delays, more than any other vehicle program at Tesla.

It was initially unveiled in 2017, and CEO Elon Musk claimed that it would go into production in 2019.

In late 2022, Tesla held an event where it unveiled the “production version” of the Tesla Semi and delivered the first few units to a “customer-partner”: PepsiCo.

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Tesla Semi PepsiCo truck u/Tutrifor — Tesla Semi Image credit: u/Tutrifor

More than 3 years later, the vehicle never went into volume production. Instead, Tesla only ran a very low volume pilot production at a factory in Nevada and only delivered a few dozen trucks to customers as part of test programs.

But Tesla promised that things would finally happen for the Tesla Semi this year.

Tesla has been building a new high-volume production factory specifically for the Tesla Semi program in a new building next to Gigafactory Nevada.

The goal was to start production in 2025, start customer deliveries, and ramp up to 50,000 trucks yearly.

Now, Ryder, a large transportation company and early customer-partner in Tesla’s semi truck program, is talking about further delays. The company also refers to a significant price increase.

California’s Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee (MSRC) awarded Ryder funding for a project to deploy Tesla Semi trucks and Megachargers at two of its facilities in the state.

Ryder had previously asked for extensions amid the delays in the Tesla Semi program.

In a new letter sent to MSRC last week and obtained by Electrek, Ryder asked the agency for another 28-month delay. The letter references delays in “Tesla product design, vehicle production” and it mentions “dramatic changes to the Tesla product economics”:

This extension is needed due to delays in Tesla product design, vehicle production and dramatic changes to the Tesla product economics. These delays have caused us to reevaluate the current Ryder fleet in the area.

The logistics company now says it plans to “deploy 18 Tesla Semi vehicles by June 2026.”

The reference to “dramatic changes to the Tesla product economics” points to a significant price increase for the Tesla Semi, which further communication with MSRC confirms.

In the agenda of a meeting to discuss the extension and changes to the project yesterday, MSRC confirms that the project went from 42 to 18 Tesla Semi trucks while the project commitment is not changing:

Ryder has indicated that their electric tractor manufacturer partner, Tesla, has experienced continued delays in product design and production. There have also been dramatic changes to the product economics. Ryder requests to reduce the number of vehicles from 42 to 18, stating that this would maintain their $7.5 million private match commitment.

In addition to the electric trucks, the project originally involved installing two integrated power centers and four Tesla Megachargers, split between two locations. Ryder is also looking to now install 3 Megachargers per location for a total of 6 instead of 4.

The project changes also mention that “Ryder states that Tesla now requires 600kW chargers rather than the 750kW units originally engineered.”

Tesla Semi Price

When originally unveiling the Tesla Semi in 2017, the automaker mentioned prices of $150,000 for a 300-mile range truck and $180,000 for the 500-mile version. Tesla also took orders for a “Founder’s Series Semi” at $200,000.

However, Tesla didn’t update the prices when launching the “production version” of the truck in late 2023. Price increases have been speculated, but the company has never confirmed them.

New diesel-powered Class 8 semi trucks in the US today often range between $150,000 and $220,000.

The combination of a reasonable purchase price and low operation costs, thanks to cheaper electric rates than diesel, made the Tesla Semi a potentially revolutionary product to reduce the overall costs of operation in trucking while reducing emissions.

However, Ryder now points to a “dramatic” price increase for the Tesla Semi.

What is the cost of a Tesla Semi electric truck now?

Electrek’s Take

As I have often stated, Tesla Semi is the vehicle program I am most excited about at Tesla right now.

If Tesla can produce class 8 trucks capable of moving cargo of similar weight as diesel trucks over 500 miles on a single charge in high volume at a reasonable price point, they have a revolutionary product on their hands.

But the reasonable price part is now being questioned.

After reading the communications between Ryder and MSRC, while not clear, it looks like the program could be interpreted as MSRC covering the costs of installing the charging stations while Ryder committed $7.5 million to buying the trucks.

The math makes sense for the original funding request since $7.5 million divided by 42 trucks results in around $180,000 per truck — what Tesla first quoted for the 500-mile Tesla Semi truck.

Now, with just 18 trucks, it would point to a price of $415,000 per Tesla Semi truck. It’s possible that some of Ryder’s commitment could also go to an increase in Megacharger prices – either per charger or due to the two additional chargers. MSRC said that they don’t give more money when prices go up after an extension.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 500-mile Tesla Semi ends up costing $350,000 to $400,000.

If that’s the case, Tesla Semi is impressive, but it won’t be the revolutionary product that will change the trucking industry.

It will need to be closer to $250,000-$300,000 to have a significant impact, which is not impossible with higher-volume production but would be difficult.

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Technology

AI could affect 40% of jobs and widen inequality between nations, UN warns

Published

6 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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AI could affect 40% of jobs and widen inequality between nations, UN warns

Artificial intelligence robot looking at futuristic digital data display.

Yuichiro Chino | Moment | Getty Images

Artificial intelligence is projected to reach $4.8 trillion in market value by 2033, but the technology’s benefits remain highly concentrated, according to the U.N. Trade and Development agency.

In a report released on Thursday, UNCTAD said the AI market cap would roughly equate to the size of Germany’s economy, with the technology offering productivity gains and driving digital transformation.

However, the agency also raised concerns about automation and job displacement, warning that AI could affect 40% of jobs worldwide. On top of that, AI is not inherently inclusive, meaning the economic gains from the tech remain “highly concentrated,” the report added.

“The benefits of AI-driven automation often favour capital over labour, which could widen inequality and reduce the competitive advantage of low-cost labour in developing economies,” it said.

The potential for AI to cause unemployment and inequality is a long-standing concern, with the IMF making similar warnings over a year ago. In January, The World Economic Forum released findings that as many as 41% of employers were planning on downsizing their staff in areas where AI could replicate them.

However, the UNCTAD report also highlights inequalities between nations, with U.N. data showing that 40% of global corporate research and development spending in AI is concentrated among just 100 firms, mainly those in the U.S. and China.

Furthermore, it notes that leading tech giants, such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft — companies that stand to benefit from the AI boom — have a market value that rivals the gross domestic product of the entire African continent.

This AI dominance at national and corporate levels threatens to widen those technological divides, leaving many nations at risk of lagging behind, UNCTAD said. It noted that 118 countries — mostly in the Global South — are absent from major AI governance discussions.

UN recommendations

But AI is not just about job replacement, the report said, noting that it can also “create new industries and and empower workers” — provided there is adequate investment in reskilling and upskilling.

But in order for developing nations not to fall behind, they must “have a seat at the table” when it comes to AI regulation and ethical frameworks, it said.

In its report, UNCTAD makes a number of recommendations to the international community for driving inclusive growth. They include an AI public disclosure mechanism, shared AI infrastructure, the use of open-source AI models and initiatives to share AI knowledge and resources.

Open-source generally refers to software in which the source code is made freely available on the web for possible modification and redistribution.

“AI can be a catalyst for progress, innovation, and shared prosperity – but only if countries actively shape its trajectory,” the report concludes.

“Strategic investments, inclusive governance, and international cooperation are key to ensuring that AI benefits all, rather than reinforcing existing divides.”

Environment

BP chair Helge Lund to step down after oil major pledges strategic reset

Published

6 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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BP chair Helge Lund to step down after oil major pledges strategic reset

British oil and gasoline company BP (British Petroleum) signage is being pictured in Warsaw, Poland, on July 29, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

British oil major BP on Friday said its chair Helge Lund will soon step down, kickstarting a succession process shortly after the company launched a fundamental strategic reset.

“Having fundamentally reset our strategy, bp’s focus now is on delivering the strategy at pace, improving performance and growing shareholder value,” Lund said in a statement.

“Now is the right time to start the process to find my successor and enable an orderly and seamless handover,” he added.

Lund is expected to step down in 2026. BP said the succession process will be led by Amanda Blanc in her capacity as senior independent director.

Shares of BP traded 2.2% lower on Friday morning. The London-listed firm has lagged its industry rivals in recent years.

BP announced in February that it plans to ramp up annual oil and gas investment to $10 billion through 2027 and slash spending on renewables as part of its new strategic direction.

Analysts have broadly welcomed BP’s renewed focus on hydrocarbons, although the beleaguered energy giant remains under significant pressure from activist investors.

U.S. hedge fund Elliott Management has built a stake of around 5% to become one of BP’s largest shareholders, according to Reuters.

Activist investor Follow This, meanwhile, recently pushed for investors to vote against Lund’s reappointment as chair at BP’s April 17 shareholder meeting in protest over the firm’s recent strategy U-turn.

Lund had previously backed BP’s 2020 strategy, when Bernard Looney was CEO, to boost investment in renewables and cut production of oil and gas by 40% by 2030.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss, who took the helm on a permanent basis in January last year, is under significant pressure to reassure investors that the company is on the right track to improve its financial performance.

‘A more clearly defined break’

“Elliott continues to press BP for a sharper, more clearly defined break with the strategy to pivot more quickly toward renewables, that was outlined by Bernard Looney when he was CEO,” Russ Mould, AJ Bell’s investment director, told CNBC via email on Friday.

“Mr Lund was chair then and so he is firmly associated with that plan, which current boss Murray Auchincloss is refining,” he added.

Mould said activist campaigns tend to have “fairly classic thrusts,” such as a change in management or governance, higher shareholder distributions, an overhaul of corporate structure and operational improvements.

“In BP’s case, we now have a shift in capital allocation and a change in management, so it will be interesting to see if this appeases Elliott, though it would be no surprise if it feels more can and should be done,” Mould said.