The jailing of Mike Amesbury for 10 weeks for assault means Sir Keir Starmer potentially faces his first by-election test since becoming prime minister.

Officially, the 55-year-old former Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby now faces a recall petition, but realistically he’s under enormous pressure to resign without delay.

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Amesbury was immediately disowned by the Labour Party, which condemned his actions in the assault as “completely unacceptable” and said it was time for a new MP.

“Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better, and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserved in the future with a new MP,” said a party spokesperson.

However, if Amesbury appeals against his sentence, as it’s being suggested he may, that would delay a by-election as a writ can’t be moved unless appeals are exhausted, or he stands down voluntarily.

Amesbury held the Cheshire seat with a seemingly healthy 14,696 majority at the July 2024 general election. But in a potential nightmare for Sir Keir, it was Reform UK – not the Conservatives – in second place.

A challenge for Labour – but Tories in disarray

The current state of opinion polls, with Nigel Farage’s party edging ahead of Labour, suggests Reform will be in contention in a by-election and could pull off a sensational victory.

And so predictably it was Reform’s chairman Zia Yusuf who led calls from opponents for Amesbury to resign, followed by a handful of Tory backbenchers – but not by Kemi Badenoch yet.

“The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place,” said Mr Yusuf. “We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately.”

The risk of humiliation by Mr Farage may deter Labour big hitter Jonathan Ashworth – one of five Labour MPs defeated in July last year – from gambling on a quick return to Westminster in this seat.

The Conservatives appear to be in disarray over a potential by-election. Sky News can reveal that party HQ last week invited applications to be Tory candidate, with a deadline fast approaching.

“We are writing to invite applications for Runcorn and Helsby,” said a letter from the party’s candidates team. “We are particularly keen to see applications from people with links to the constituency.

“If you are eligible to stand and interested in applying, please apply through the Microsoft Form here and apply by no later than Tuesday 25th February at 12pm.”

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When could a by-election happen?

A recall petition happens if an MP is jailed or receives a suspended sentence of a year or less. It lasts six weeks and if 10% of electors sign it, there’s a by-election – though the recalled MP can stand.

The last MP to be jailed was Tory Imran Ahmad Khan, former MP for Wakefield, who was sentenced to 18 months after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-yar-old boy. Labour won that by-election.

Although Sir Keir and the Labour high command have acknowledged since Amesbury pleaded guilty that a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was almost inevitable, the party faces a dilemma over the timing of a poll.

Labour’s statement looking forward to a new MP suggests the party favours a speedy by-election, without the delay of a recall petition, rather than waiting until the local elections on 1 May or even later.

But there are dangers in a quick poll, as Sir Keir will recall. He was advised to rush the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, with disastrous results, and he has admitted he considered quitting after that humiliating defeat.

The numbers in Runcorn and Helsby last July were Labour on 22,358 votes (52.94%), Reform 7,662, (18.14%), Conservatives 6,756, (16%), Greens 2,715, (6.43%) and Liberal Democrats 2,149, (5.09%).

Runcorn is on the southern bank of the River Mersey and has expanded as a new town since 1964, and dominates the constituency with a population of 61,000. There are two smaller towns, Frodsham and Helsby.

Amesbury became MP for the processor seat of Weaver Vale in 2017. He was a shadow minister for work and pensions under Jeremy Corbyn, and for housing, communities and local government under Sir Keir until 2022.

A teenager who admitted killing his mother and two younger siblings was plotting a school shooting, it can now be reported.

Nicholas Prosper, 19, appeared at Luton Crown Court over the deaths of Juliana Falcon, 48, Giselle Prosper, 13, and Kyle Prosper, 16.

Their bodies were found at a flat in Leabank, off Wauluds Bank Drive, Luton, in September.

As he appeared in court on Monday, Prosper spoke to confirm his identity and to plead guilty to three charges of murder.

Assistant Chief Constable John Murphy, from Bedfordshire Police, said: “We understand the deep shock this case will have on people within Luton and across the country.

“Juliana, Kyle and Giselle were brutally murdered in their home by someone intent on causing the maximum harm and distress on not only his family, but to the wider community.

“We are extremely grateful to our officers who stopped him and prevented him from going through with his plans to target a school.

“We are working closely alongside Luton Borough Council to engage with schools in Luton to provide support, assistance and guidance to both schools and parents.”

Leader of Luton Council, Hazel Simmons MBE, branded the murders as “senseless” and said their thoughts were with the victims, their family and friends.

She then said the “revelation that the perpetrator had plans to cause further harm in one of our schools is extremely shocking, distressing and upsetting”.

The councillor sought to reassure parents by saying “our schools have robust systems in place to keep children safe and security is constantly reviewed and monitored”.

After recently asking schools to review their security, Ms Simmons said schools will be asked to further review their measures in light of what emerged from court on Monday.

“On behalf of the town I would like to thank and praise the excellent work of Bedfordshire Police for apprehending the perpetrator before he attempted to cause more harm.

“However, we know this case will be unsettling for parents which is why the council is working with schools to put support in place in our schools to anyone who needs it.”

Prosper also admitted a number of other offences, including purchasing a shotgun without a certificate, possession of a shotgun with intent to endanger life and possession of a kitchen knife in a public place.

He will be sentenced on 5 March and has been remanded in custody.

‘A cold-blooded attack’

Chris Derrick, a deputy chief crown prosecutor at the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), said the victims’ lives “were stolen in a cold-blooded attack”.

Mr Derrick said in a statement “the full extent of Prosper’s actions will be laid bare when he is sentenced, and he can expect to face a very long time behind bars”.

He added: “We hope today’s conviction offers some solace to those who loved and cared for them, as they mourn their loss.”

A friend of Ms Falcon previously described her as someone who “lived for her children” and said she was “a positive person who will be so terribly missed”.

A previous statement on X from the headteacher at Lea Manor High School said they were “deeply shocked” by the death of Giselle.

“Giselle was a beautiful soul and a model pupil, she excelled in all her subjects and will be sorely missed, particularly by her friends in Year 9.”

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Kyle’s school described the incident as “devastating” and offered “heartfelt condolences” to his family.

A previous statement issued by Cardinal Newman Catholic School said: “This is devastating news to all those who knew and loved Kyle and it will take some time to come to terms with the profound sense of loss.

“We know this will be a difficult time for students and staff and we will do all we can to support them with love and compassion.

“We extend our heartfelt condolences to Kyle’s family on their immeasurable loss, to his friends and to all those in neighbouring schools who are coming to terms with their own loss.”

A three-year-old girl who died in a crash involving a tram and a van in Manchester has been named.

Louisa ‘Lulu’ Palmisano, from Burnley, died following the incident on Saturday. She was visiting the city with her parents at the time.

Greater Manchester Police (GMP) have arrested a 36-year-old man on suspicion of causing death by dangerous driving. He remains in police custody, the force said, and the investigation is still live.

Lulu’s parents said in a statement: “Louisa (Lulu) was the sweetest, kindest, and most generous little girl.

“She was full of creativity and joy, and she absolutely loved going to nursery every day.

“Her absence has left a devastating void in our family – she was our only child, our whole world.

“We were simply enjoying a happy family day out in Manchester when this unimaginable tragedy struck. In an instant, our lives were shattered beyond repair.

“The pain of losing her is unbearable, and we miss her more than words can ever express.”

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Emergency services responded to reports of a road traffic collision involving a tram and a van in Manchester city centre at around 10am on Saturday, GMP said in a statement on Monday.

The van collided with the tram, which forced the van on to a pavement where it collided with a pedestrian.

Lulu was taken to hospital and sadly passed away from her injuries, the force said.