Stanley Cup playoffs preview: Breaking down all 16 teams in the NHL postseason
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs are upon us. While the Boston Bruins set all sorts of records during the regular season, their total in the win column is back to zero along with those of the 15 other clubs looking to win the sport’s ultimate prize. But the Bruins’ chase of the perfect capping of a record-breaking season is not the only storyline this spring:
We’ve got all the angles covered to get you ready for the playoffs as ESPN hockey reporters Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton take a look at each of the 16 postseason teams, offering the reasons each team could win it all, along with the (potentially) biggest flaws, players to watch and a bold prediction for every contender.
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metropolitan playoff brackets were written by Shilton, while Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific clubs. Also note that wild-card teams are listed according to the playoff bracket in which they’re playing (so the Seattle Kraken are in the Central, for instance).
Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey.
Jump to a team:
Atlantic: BOS | TOR
TB | FLA
Metro: CAR | NJ
NYR | NYI
Central: COL | DAL
MIN | SEA
Pacific: VGK | EDM
LA | WPG
Atlantic Division
Record: 65-12-5, 135 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Boston produced a record-setting, history-making regular season that kept it atop the NHL standings — by a good margin — from start to finish. The Bruins have enviable depth scoring, a killer top-four rotation on the back end, excellent goaltenders (in both Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman) and the league’s most potent penalty kill.
Oh, and projected Jack Adams Award-winning coach Jim Montgomery has been pushing all the right buttons from behind the bench. Enough said.
Biggest flaws: The Bruins’ power play might be the closest thing to an Achilles’ heel. While Boston dominated in seemingly every other category, it finished with the NHL’s 11th-ranked man advantage, one that toggled from hot to cold in the second half of the regular season. Scoring is always at a premium come playoffs; those power-play chances will be critical.
And we’d be remiss not to mention the Presidents’ Trophy curse, of course. Teams that earn top billing through 82 games more often than not see their postseasons cut short. The Bruins are poised to seemingly defy those odds, though.
Player to watch: David Pastrnak. Every team inevitably needs a star in tightly contested postseason games. Boston is fortunate to have a 60-goal scorer — the franchise’s second ever — in Pastrnak, who plays like a man possessed to get the job done every night. The Bruins are a total package of elite elements and no one can trump Pastrnak as an effective threat in each phase of the game. He’d be hard to hold back for long in any series.
Bold prediction: The Bruins don’t win the Stanley Cup. Storming through the regular season with (relative) ease leaves Boston without enough killer instinct and it falls short against a more desperate opponent.
Record: 50-21-11, 111 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Toronto finally has all the tools in place. The Leafs fortified their depth scoring, stocked up on capable defensemen to play in front of an actual stud goaltender in Ilya Samsonov, and the team’s power play is one of the league’s best.
Top forwards Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, Auston Matthews and John Tavares have made steady contributions all season and know — from years of experience — what it feels like to fall short. The added Cup-winning pedigree of a healthy Ryan O’Reilly should help in making the Leafs dangerous.
Biggest flaws: The Leafs have a viable No. 1 goalie in Samsonov. After that is where Toronto is exposed. Matt Murray is hurt, again. Joseph Woll executed well (4-1-0) in the regular season but has no NHL postseason credentials. If Samsonov struggles — or worse, gets injured — Toronto would have to rely on Woll to step in if Murray isn’t ready to go. That’s a potentially big ask of the young goalie, one the Leafs can only hope they don’t have to make.
Toronto’s other possible roadblock is mental. After six consecutive first-round exits, there’s never been more pressure on this team to win a series. GM Kyle Dubas is working on an expiring contract; his job could well be on the line. For years, Dubas has defended his vaunted core. Will the pressure be too much for this group to get over the hump once and for all?
Player to watch: Ilya Samsonov. It’s easy to point to the Leafs’ high-octane forwards and say they have to lead the way. That’s true. But Samsonov will be enormously important to Toronto’s success. Goaltending has derailed the Leafs so often in recent postseasons, and the uncertainty around Murray only amplifies Samsonov’s value. He could make or break the Leafs’ chances.
Bold prediction: Toronto sweeps Tampa Bay in the first round to advance in a postseason series for the first time since 2003-04.
Record: 46-30-6, 98 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Well, it’s Tampa Bay. The Lightning have been counted out before and proved their doubters wrong.
The most recent back-to-back Cup winners were top-10 in scoring this season and boasted a top-three power play that could be a major difference-maker. Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the NHL’s top goaltenders, Nikita Kucherov surpassed 100 points again this season and Brayden Point might have produced the stealthiest 50-goal showing ever.
All that is well and good but the bottom line: Tampa Bay knows how to win. When the stakes are highest, coach Jon Cooper can get the most of his roster. There truly is no substitute for that type of experience.
Biggest flaws: The Lightning uncharacteristically stumbled out of the regular season, losing eight of their final 12 games and being badly outscored by lesser competition. That Cooper had to send a message by benching some of his stars revealed some potential cracks in Tampa Bay’s armor.
The Lightning might be able to score, but they give up too much too, allowing over three goals and nearly 32 shots per game. Their overall team defense has lacked consistency and those bottom-six contributions the Lightning have leaned on in the past aren’t showing up as readily.
Is all that a sign Tampa Bay is finally too fatigued to go on another long run? It eventually happens to every repeat contender. And the Lightning have played a lot of hockey the past three years.
Player to watch: Victor Hedman. No skater has a larger collective impact on Tampa Bay’s success than its stalwart top defenseman. Hedman is the Lightning’s backbone, their muscle who can produce in every facet of the game. He’s a savvy veteran who, if needed, can will the club to a tight victory. There’s no question Hedman will give everything he has every shift and that it will power the Lightning to whatever end lies ahead.
Bold prediction: Tampa Bay’s scoring dries up early in postseason, and Vasilevskiy looks human for the first time in years. The Lightning can’t keep up with the Leafs and fall short of advancing past the first round for the first time in four years.
Record: 42-32-8, 92 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Florida could be this season’s playoff Cinderella story. For months, the Panthers looked ineffective racking up loss after loss, but GM Bill Zito didn’t add at the trade deadline. Zito said he believed in the team as it was. Florida responded in kind with a 12-4-2 record from March 3 until its penultimate regular-season game — and fourth consecutive playoff berth.
The Panthers have momentum. They have swagger and confidence that comes from having played with postseason-level urgency for weeks. Matthew Tkachuk has been MVP-worthy up front. Brandon Montour isn’t earning enough attention for the fabulous season he’s put together. Alex Lyon has been dominating in net since taking over from Sergei Bobrovsky. Florida fought its way back from the brink, and that’s what will make the Panthers dangerous in the playoffs.
Biggest flaws: The Panthers’ penalty kill has been a problem. They have the second worst PK (75.9%) in the playoff field, and that’s notable given how vital special teams opportunities — for and against — can be.
Florida was also one of the worst regular-season teams playing from behind, with only four wins to its credit when trailing after the first period. The Panthers will require more resiliency than that to go on a long run.
Player to watch: Alex Lyon. He has been Florida’s savior between the pipes. But will the 30-year-old be able to perform the same way come playoff time? Lyon had appeared in just 24 NHL games prior to replacing Bobrovsky as the Panthers’ No. 1 in late March. Florida can’t expect to outscore defensive or goaltending issues — the Panthers tried it last year as the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners; it didn’t go well — so Lyon being on point is a critical factor in their potential success.
Bold prediction: Florida bottles up Boston in the first round and sends the Bruins packing with a thrilling overtime victory to end the series.
Metropolitan Division
Record: 52-21-9, 113 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Carolina is no one-trick pony. The Hurricanes can do it all, and do it all well — even without all the flash. That’s how Carolina emerged as one of the NHL’s stingiest defensive teams, ranking second in goals against per game and first in shots allowed per game to go with a second-ranked penalty kill.
The Hurricanes have a depth of talented scorers, headlined by Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas. Brent Burns has been a seamless fit on the blue line and elevates the club’s offensive and special teams attack in big ways. Carolina has proved time and again that it can win close games, be physical when necessary and wear opponents down with a suffocating neutral-zone presence. That’s the type of energy you need to compete come the postseason.
Biggest flaws: The Hurricanes’ Cup-winning odds took a hit when Andrei Svechnikov (23 goals and 55 points in 64 games) had season-ending ACL surgery last month. Carolina has had to adjust significantly since then, and its up-and-down results through March into April showed that. Losing any significant weapon is a blow, but Svechnikov’s absence did seem to rattle the Hurricanes.
Another issue is Carolina’s 20th-ranked power play. It got even worse as the season went on and eventually ranked in the league’s bottom three from early March onward. A few missed opportunities on special teams can seriously affect a club’s performance in a do-or-die postseason round.
Player to watch: Sebastian Aho. Carolina’s top goal scorer will have to bring it come playoffs — and he’s primed to deliver. Whether it’s Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta in net, the Hurricanes have to provide more offensive support, and Aho has been their most consistent, electrifying threat. Timely goals will need to be his bread and butter.
Bold prediction: Carolina blows a multi-game lead in its first-round series and can’t find the offense to claw its way back. The Hurricanes bow out early despite outscoring their opponent overall through a seven-game grind.
Record: 52-22-8, 112 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: New Jersey has risen to surprisingly great heights this season thanks to a confluence of factors that should make the Devils serious contenders. They have been resilient through highs and lows, proved they can win when not at their best (as one of the best comeback teams in the NHL) and benefitted from the confidence that comes with that.
Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier lead a New Jersey offense that ranked top-10 in scoring, while a solid back end and excellent goaltending from Vitek Vanecek have helped the Devils give up fewer than three goals per game (also ranking them in the top 10).
And, there’s Timo Meier, who was added at the trade deadline and worked his way seamlessly (and productively) into the lineup.
New Jersey has waited years to not just return to the postseason but do so with such a promising roster of up-and-coming stars and strong veteran leadership. It’s all about good balance.
Biggest flaw: The Devils’ best and worst qualities are intrinsically tied together: Those top offensive players who make New Jersey so dangerous also have little to no experience in the NHL playoffs. That’s no small thing. The postseason game is harder, faster and heavier. There is, as they say, no space on the ice. It’s a tough learning curve, and the Devils will have zero wiggle room while figuring out playoff speed on the fly.
The sense of desperation and urgency required in one-goal games — whether holding a lead or trying to gain one — can’t be manufactured, and New Jersey will have to tap into those regular-season teachings when the going gets tough.
Player to watch: Vitek Vanecek. New Jersey felt it was a goalie away from having a sound roster. Vanecek has filled that void in a big way. When the Devils’ playoff run begins, it’ll be Vanecek going man-to-man against Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin at the other end of the ice. How well he can hold up and make the critical saves necessary will be exceptionally important in any success the Devils find early (and potentially later on) in the postseason.
Bold prediction: New Jersey stuns the competition by winning a wild first-round series in seven games and advancing all the way to the Eastern Conference finals on the back of unstoppable offensive performances from Hughes and Meier.
Record: 47-22-13, 107 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: New York didn’t load up at the trade deadline for nothing. There’s a genuine — and justifiable — belief that this group can go all the way. That’s why GM Chris Drury added Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane to the mix, both of whom have won Stanley Cups before.
Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider are also known threats coming off 30-plus-goal seasons, and Adam Fox is as good defensively as he is at chipping in points. And even in a “down” year, Igor Shesterkin remains among the NHL’s elite goaltenders, capable of outdueling anyone over a weeklong stretch. The Rangers collected just two regulation losses in the final month of their season for a reason: New York knows this is go-time, and it’s ready to show out.
Biggest flaw: One of the Rangers’ best assets in reaching last year’s Eastern Conference finals was the grittiness they showed in games with series victories on the line. That same level of physicality and consistency wasn’t displayed as frequently this season.
New York’s infusion of skill players (see above) can’t come at the expense of playing hard along the boards, winning puck battles and doing all the small things that become more significant in the playoffs. The Rangers were second overall this season in giveaways per 60 (9.94), and that stat could come back to haunt them when every inch of ice matters.
Player to watch: Artemi Panarin. New York’s top-line winger can be one of the team’s most electrifying scorers — and then, just as quickly, be mired in a slump. Panarin’s contributions are vital to any long run New York goes on, and a feast-or-famine output won’t help there. Look for the veteran to dial into what he does best and be a stable offensive contributor.
Bold prediction: New York gets below-average goaltending from Shesterkin and can’t make up the difference in a short-lived playoff run that doesn’t extend past April.
Record: 42-31-9, 93 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: New York wouldn’t be in the playoffs without Ilya Sorokin. And it’s the sensational Sorokin who will be the Islanders’ backbone in the postseason.
New York is methodical, with a hard-nosed defense that stacks up as well or better than most back ends in the league. That’s where the Islanders’ power lies. They’ll wear down an opponent, take away chances and smother attacks through the neutral zone. That can become frustrating fast — especially against teams reliant on high-scoring outcomes — and gives the Islanders an edge to exploit.
Biggest flaw: The Islanders’ offensive output is inconsistent and depth could be a real issue. New York averaged fewer than three goals per game, with the bulk of its total coming from just three players (Brock Nelson, Anders Lee and Zach Parise, who each surpassed 20 goals). The postseason often calls for third- and fourth-line contributors to have an impact, something the Islanders haven’t seen enough of.
It’s also little wonder why New York’s power play was third worst in the league (15.8%). Hard to capitalize on chances without the required options. More skaters have to step up.
Player to watch: Bo Horvat. Yes, Sorokin has been the Islanders’ superstar this season. But Horvat is being paid like one and has to play like it from the puck drop in Game 1. At 28, he is in his prime, with a glorious chance to compete in the postseason that he wouldn’t have had prior to being traded from Vancouver. Horvat hasn’t been shy about expressing how good that feels. He’ll have to shine in a big way to help the Islanders overcome their regular-season scoring woes.
Bold prediction: Sorokin shockingly falls apart early on and the Islanders turn to Semyon Varlamov to take over, a change that ultimately sparks the team to a first-round upset.
Central Division
Record: 51-24-7, 109 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: People keep saying it: Imagine what the Avs would look like if they were fully healthy. All the defending champions have done is win the Central Division while having one of the best records in the West — all in a season in which just four players have played in every game.
So if the Avs can do this while being on the mend, what are they capable of achieving in the playoffs? Especially if they can get everyone healthy?
Biggest flaws: Staying healthy. That statement can be applied to any team, but the Avalanche are a special case. The Avs’ current core knows all about injuries in the playoffs. Back in 2019-20, they went into Game 7 of a second-round series missing nine players who were out due to injuries.
This season has also provided its own set of issues. Gabriel Landeskog didn’t play this season, and will miss the playoffs as well. The Avs have also experienced what life is like without Bowen Byram, Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Josh Manson, Valeri Nichushkin and Cale Makar during various points of the season.
Player to watch: Alexandar Georgiev. This will be the third straight year in which the Avs enter the playoffs with a different No. 1 goaltender. Acquiring Georgiev gave the Avs someone they felt could be their top goalie for a number of seasons to come, and so far, he has been that for them. Now they are hoping Georgiev can transform his regular-season success into the sort of postseason results the defending champs could use in their bid for a consecutive title.
Bold prediction: J.T. Compher will be one of the Avalanche’s top three scorers during the playoffs.
Record: 47-21-14, 108 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Two items were evident after last season’s first-round exit. They were that Jake Oettinger is a nightmare to play against — and he’d be even more hellish if the Stars could score goals to support him.
A year later, Oettinger is still the thing of which nightmares are made, while the Stars were one of the more prolific offensive teams in the West. It’s possible those two factors could make the Stars a problem for any team that encounters them in the postseason.
Biggest flaw: Can the Stars carry their regular-season scoring success into the playoffs so they can lessen Oettinger’s burden? Let’s go back to last year’s first-round exit. Sure, it was the lack of goals. But it was also the fact that three of the Stars’ losses came in games in which they either scored one goal or were shut out.
And maybe the most bizarre part of all? They actually outscored the Calgary Flames — by one goal — in that series.
Player to watch: Max Domi. Even with their production, the concern for the Stars around the trade deadline was an overreliance on who scored. More than 66% of their goals came from six players before Domi arrived. Since then, the Stars have received more contributions, while Domi has accounted for two goals and seven points in 20 games.
Bold prediction: Roope Hintz, who has nine career playoff goals, will score more than 10 goals this postseason.
Record: 46-25-11, 103 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Losing your leading scorer for the final full month of the regular season is usually a blow for a team trying to snag a playoff spot. For the Wild, they overcame Kirill Kaprizov‘s absence, clinching a playoff spot by going 8-3-2 following his injury and making a push to win the Central Division title.
The time without Kaprizov showed the Wild can find scoring in other places while continuing to trust a goaltending tandem in Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson that has allowed them to remain a factor in every game.
Biggest flaw: Can they continue to score? In the time without Kaprizov, the Wild were averaging 3.71 goals per game, and that was good enough for eighth in the NHL over that period of time. Now it’s a matter of whether or not they can keep it going. Especially upon considering the Wild enter this year’s postseason as one of the two-lowest scoring teams in the field.
Player to watch: Matt Boldy. Everything he achieved in March further reinforced why the Wild believe they have another star forward in Boldy. He broke through to score 12 goals in what was arguably the most crucial month of the season to help the Wild eventually clinch a playoff spot. How Boldy performs in the postseason could play a role in determining how far the Wild advance this spring.
Bold prediction: The Wild will reach the Western Conference finals.
Record: 46-28-8, 100 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: No one individual talent is the reason the Kraken have gone from a lottery team to one that’s making the playoffs in the franchise’s second season. Their transformation has been a collective approach. One that saw them keep their trademark of being a physically demanding team with an aggressive forecheck.
It’s just that they now have quite a bit of scoring to go with that structure. They are a top-five team in goals scored, with 13 players who have scored more than 10 goals. Every skater who has played more than 45 games this season has at least 16 points.
Biggest flaw: Goaltending continues to be an issue. A year ago, the Kraken finished with the second-worst team save percentage in 5-on-5 play. This season has seen a slight improvement, as they now have the eighth-worst team save percentage in 5-on-5 play. Still, it’s the kind of statistic that creates questions about the Kraken’s postseason chances in an environment in which goaltending is even more crucial to a team’s aspirations.
Player to watch: Jared McCann. This season he notched the first 40-goal campaign in his career. McCann’s profile prior to joining the Kraken was that of a top-nine forward who could strengthen a middle six. Since then, he has turned into one of the more underrated scorers in the NHL with 66 goals in the past two seasons. He’s absolutely a breakout candidate this postseason.
Bold prediction: The Kraken get the goaltending and reach the second round.
Pacific Division
Record: 51-22-9, 111 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: What allowed the Golden Knights to return to the playoffs after a one-year absence? They continually received contributions from every person in their lineup at some point this season.
They have 20 players with more than 10 points, 12 players with more than 10 goals, and have five goaltenders with at least two wins. Robin Lehner was lost before the season started, while Mark Stone was limited to 43 games; players stepped up in their places to get them to the top of the Western Conference.
The strength of the Knights has been their collective, and it could be the item that leads to them making a strong postseason run.
Biggest flaws: Both special teams. Much of the Golden Knights’ success this season has come in 5-on-5 play. Just look at all their underlying metrics in those sequences. What they have done on either the penalty kill or the power play is a different conversation altogether. On the surface, they have the No. 19 penalty kill, with a 77.6% success rate. And while their PK unit had the fewest minutes played this season, Natural Stat Trick’s metrics show the Knights were ninth in scoring chances allowed per 60, and 12th in goals allowed per 60.
Their power play is in a somewhat similar state, with a 20.3% success rate, which ranks 18th. Part of the issue is the Golden Knights averaged the lowest amount of time spent on the power play in the NHL, at 4:14 per contest. And while they are in the top 10 in shots per 60 and scoring chances per 60, it’s brought back a return that ranks 18th in goals per 60. Jonathan Marchessault led the team in power-play points, with 16. For context, that puts him No. 119 among NHL skaters.
Player to watch: Mark Stone. He was out of the lineup after having his second back surgery in less than a year. That led to the Golden Knights trading for Ivan Barbashev at the deadline to fill that void. But Stone started practicing April 10 in a noncontact sweater, and was a full participant in practice Saturday. Whenever Stone is inserted into the lineup, he’ll give the Golden Knights another top-six forward who can be trusted to play in every situation.
Bold prediction: Eichel, who has never played in the postseason, will lead the NHL in points after the first round.
Record: 50-23-9, 109 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Few teams have been as dangerous as the Oilers since the final week of trade season. Since March 1, they are 18-2-1, and have led the NHL in scoring while also allowing the eighth-fewest goals in that time — a promising sign for a team that has struggled with finding defensive consistency.
Then there’s that whole bit about having three 100-point scorers in Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, while having nearly 13 players on the roster who have scored 10 or more goals this season.
Biggest flaws: Can the Oilers harness their late-season defensive success throughout the playoffs? That’s been one of the most notable questions facing the Oilers. And so far, they are showing they could have everything needed to not only return to the Western Conference finals for a consecutive season, but possibly reach the Stanley Cup Final.
Player to watch: Connor McDavid. The best player on the planet just had the best season of his life and has shown little reason to believe that will not continue into the postseason.
Bold prediction: McDavid will join Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux as the only players to score more than 40 points in an individual postseason campaign … en route to winning the Conn Smythe as MVP of the playoffs.
Record: 47-25-10, 104 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Part of the narrative with the Kings was the hypothetical of: What could they be in the event they found consistent goaltending? Promoting Pheonix Copley while getting Joonas Korpisalo at the trade deadline has offered insight into why the Kings could be one of the more dangerous teams in the discussion.
They’re one of a number of teams that have received offensive contributions from everyone, and their underlying defensive metrics show they are in the top 10 in scoring chances allowed per 60, shots allowed per 60 and high-danger chances allowed per 60. And now they appear to have the goaltending to present themselves as one of the more complete options in the Western Conference.
Biggest flaw: Playoff experience among their goaltenders. The Kings will enter the postseason with two goaltenders who have a combined nine games of postseason play between them, with all of those games belonging to Korpisalo.
What the Kings are banking on is Korpisalo can perform like he did during the 2020 playoffs, when he was one of the major reasons the Columbus Blue Jackets had success. He shut out the Maple Leafs twice to win three games in the qualifying round, and despite losing three starts in the first round against the Lightning, Korpisalo played a significant role in why those defeats all came in one-goal games.
Player to watch: Joonas Korpisalo. Clearly, there is a theme with the Kings, and it is one that is centered around goaltending. What the Kings have seen from Korpisalo in the time they’ve had him is a goalie who can do his part to win games or keep them in games, as evidenced by the fact his first three losses were all in one-goal games.
Bold prediction: The Kings will win at least two playoff rounds.
Record: 46-33-3, 95 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Earlier this season, there was a point at which the Jets looked like they could have been the best team in the West. Since then, they’ve become a team that had to fight just to reach the playoffs.
What makes the Jets so mystifying is the same thing that could make them hard to assess in the postseason: The Jets have the sort of promise which might allow them to get beyond the first round. Or it could see them go home after a short stint in the first round, too.
Biggest flaw(s): Consistently scoring goals. They’re 16th in scoring chances per 60, 20th in shots per game and are in the bottom third in high-danger goals per 60. They also have a power play with a 19.3% success rate in the regular season, which ranked 23rd in the NHL and is also the lowest of any team that qualified for the playoffs. In other words, the Jets are the least dangerous offensive team going into the playoffs.
Player to watch: Connor Hellebuyck. Much can be said about the importance of having a Vezina Trophy winner like Hellebuyck. Yet the item that further underlines his contributions is the fact that the Jets played only three games since March 1 in which Hellebuyck was not the starting goaltender. And for a team that struggles to score like the Jets, it’s what makes Hellebuyck even more important to their cause.
Bold prediction: The Jets will win their first-round playoff series.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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— EASPORTSCollege (@EASPORTSCollege) June 30, 2025
ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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