The $25,000 electric vehicle is coming, with big implications for the auto market and car buyers
Sales of the sub-$30,000 Chevy Bolt, being assembled here in Orion Township, Michigan, allowed GM to recently pass Ford as a distant No. 2 behind Tesla in EVs.
Joe White | Reuters
From the headlines, car buyers might think the most important force driving down the cost of electric vehicles is the $7,500 tax credit that was expanded last summer, followed by Tesla’s recent aggressive cost-cutting to gain more market share.
Look closer, and the work auto companies are doing themselves to refine EV technology — and, crucially, new manufacturing processes — loom as an even bigger deal. And that’s resulting in a series of newly-announced and coming-soon models that will make EVs much cheaper, and more mainstream, highlighted by Tesla‘s first detailed public explanation of how its next-generation car due next year will come at a lower price tag, expected to start between $25,000 and $30,000.
The rise of the mass-market EV will be a milestone — environmentally, economically, financially and even politically. And as the Biden administration pushes changes that seek to aggressively remake the car market in favor of EVs more quickly than previously anticipated.
Hitting price points well below the $48,763 U.S. average new-vehicle price, which Kelley Blue Book says has risen 30% in the last three years, will make obsolete the shibboleth that EVs are an elite affectation of rich people. If the new models catch on, they will cement electric transportation as a mainstream consumer good, while also making Tesla, a refocused Ford and General Motors — and a still-to-be-winnowed out collection of EV startups — fully mainstream carmakers.
“For Tesla to go mass-market, they have to have a cheaper car,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who thinks Tesla’s version will be a compact luxury vehicle akin to an Audi A3 gas-powered car, whose base model starts at $35,400. “And mass market is the holy grail.”
Tesla’s lowest-priced model today is the Model 3 base MSRP of $41,990. There are currently three EV models with base MSRPs under $30,000, the Chevy Bolt, Bolt EUV, and Nissan Leaf, but average sales prices in March for both were still above $30,000, according to Edmunds, and above $34,000 in the case of the Leaf.
Lower-priced EVs are among a flood of new electric models that have begun to hit the market, with more than 60 new EVs expected in the next few years. Volkswagen on March 15 announced the sub-25,000 euro ID.2 model for the European market. Startup Fisker plans to launch the $29,900 PEAR crossover next year in the U.S., and GM is set to ship a sub-$30,000 Chevrolet Equinox electric sport-utility vehicle by fall. Most will compete in a market for compact sedans that could hit 10 million units over five years globally, even as automakers otherwise deemphasize smaller cars to focus on SUVs, Ives said.
All of these prices are before the tax breaks extended in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, which let U.S. buyers take credits as large as $7,500 for most EVs made in North America, but are getting more complicated, with rules including eligibility based on where batteries are produced. There are also more financing options available in the auto loan market designed specifically for environmentally friendly cars.
The big questions for automakers in budget EVs
The rise of the budget EV raises a host of questions for car makers, including where they achieve the near-term cost savings needed from production lines, how fast they need to move to gain an edge over rivals entering the low end of the market, and whether the cost-saving techniques that EV-only companies Tesla and Fisker are claiming spread to more expensive vehicles, ultimately either lowering or containing their prices to consumers.
But the biggest question of all right now: what kind of EV will consumers be likely to find at these prices, and will they buy it?
“Think [Toyota’s gasoline-powered mainstay] Corolla and other entry-level vehicles,” said Stephanie Brinley, associate director of research at S&PGlobal Mobility. “There’s nothing wrong with having a basic car as a first car. It’s a reasonable expectation to have a lower feature point.”
Analysts don’t expect a vehicle like Fisker’s PEAR – an acronym for Personal Electric Automotive Revolution – to compete with a bigger SUV like Ford’s gas-powered Explorer. Instead, the PEAR may look more like a smaller version of Honda’s CRV or Toyota’s RAV4, the two best-selling SUVs in the U.S. last year, according to Goodcarbadcar.net. They sell for as low as $27,500 for the RAV4, which is four inches longer than the PEAR’s expected 177-inch length, and just under $30,000 for the larger CRV.
Tesla’s initial low-cost car, known colloquially as a Model 2, is expected to be a hatchback, most likely made at the company’s coming factory in Monterrey, Mexico, with some production possible at Tesla’s Austin, Texas facility, Ives said. Likely comparable models for the next-generation Tesla and other cheap EVs include the Honda Civic or Toyota’s Corolla, which retail for base prices of $25,050 and $21,550, respectively, according to Brinley. Their U.S. unit sales rank 9th and 13th among all models, and tops among compact sedans, according to Goodcarbadcar. Other similar cars include Hyundai’s Kona and Honda’s Fit.
The lowest-cost EVs may have as little as 250 miles of range between charges, similar to the existing $28,000 Nissan Leaf and cars like Hyundai’s Kona that sell in the mid-$30,000-range now, letting consumers save by going for a smaller, cheaper battery, CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson said.
Brinley says consumers are unlikely to accept less than that, and will likely insist that even less-pricey EVs keep popular safety features like lane-departure warnings. Consumers may accept a shorter range in exchange for lower cost because they use a PEAR as a second car or use it in cities, where short trips with time to recharge in between are common, Fisker CEO Henrik Fisker said on the company’s Feb. 27 earnings call.
“They may not need to carry around a giant expensive battery, if they’re only using [it] as a city car,” Fisker said. “So we’ll offer some different variations there.”
For market leader Tesla, the key to pulling costs down from the $41,990 list price of the Model 3 standard range begins with new or reimagined factories, vastly greater scale and advances in battery technology, Nelson and Ives said. Ives said battery costs have another 30 to 50 percent to fall after years of decline.
At the No. 2 U.S. EV maker, Ford expects simple scale economies to improve EVs’ operating profit margins by 20 percentage points by 2026, according to a presentation to analysts on the company webcast on March 23. Another 25 points of margin will come from falling battery costs, and from redesigning vehicles so they can use smaller batteries, said Ford CFO John Lawler. Fisker has moved to save by outsourcing production of the PEAR to Foxconn.
How Tesla plans to lower costs
Tesla devoted the biggest chunk of its March 1 investor day to explaining its next-generation strategy, which it said will drive down unit production costs that are already low by another 50%. While Elon Musk has been dogged by a history of over-promising and under-delivering — at least by the original deadline — this is a trick the company says it has already accomplished once, when moving from the premium-priced Model S and Model X vehicles to a lineup dominated now by the Model 3 and Model Y.
The keys include new, bigger factories and a design that makes vehicles’ large, flat battery do double duty as the floor of the car. Those moves let Tesla assemble cars in a different order, skipping steps like removing doors after painting to let workers install seats and other interior components, resulting in less downtime during production, Lars Moravy, Tesla’s vice president of vehicle engineering, said at the investor day. The company’s new power train factories have 65% lower costs than what they replace, he added.
Tesla argues that its vertical integration, in which it designs its own batteries and much of its manufacturing equipment and software, will drive costs down further. Tesla said its overall efforts have driven the cost of drive units, which include the car’s electric motor, as low as $1,000.
“We don’t think any other automaker is even close to that number,” vice president of drivetrain engineering Colin Campbell said, a contention backed by engineering firm Munro & Associates, which says suppliers to other automakers charge $2,500 or more for similar systems.
“That’s big news,” Cory Steuben, Munro president, said.
While Tesla hopes the entry-level car will cement its role as a carmaker that can serve all segments of the market, automakers have spent years reducing their footprint in the less-profitable low end of the market, preferring to concentrate on larger vehicles with wider profit margins. Indeed, a spokesman for Hyundai’s U.S. operation said in an e-mail that the company has no plans to introduce a lower-end EV. No low-end Fords have been announced either. GM will add the Equinox to its existing Bolt sedan, which starts at $26,500 – itself down almost $6,000 for the 2023 model year. A majority of the EV sales that allowed GM to surpass Ford as No. 2 behind Tesla, though still far behind, have been the Bolt.
“At this moment a $25,000 [battery electric vehicle] is difficult without compromising driving range,” Hyundai said in the statement. “Eventually, Hyundai expects ICE and BEV models to reach price parity, but the exact timing is still unclear.”
The solution to low profits in lower-end electric cars, the companies hope, will be to load them with options, just as mid-priced cars and trucks do, Nelson said. In Tesla’s case, this might mean battery upgrades and subscriptions to services, or even a version that lets drivers deploy the vehicle for autonomous rideshare driving while the owner stays home, Nelson added. Or automakers can simply try to sell buyers of smaller EVs on leather seats, more powerful batteries and premium stereos, counting on the same forces that make some Civic buyers pay $43,000-plus for the sportier Type R version or push some Model 3s as high as $79,000.
Or the automakers might simply not make the new vehicles as inexpensive as they are promising now, Brinley said.
“Tesla hasn’t hit a price point yet,” she said.
The real answer depends on exactly how far costs come down, and how aggressively Tesla lowers prices, if at all, as healing supply chains and its own falling costs empower it to squeeze some of the recent inflation in car prices out of the market.
“Everybody is watching to see where Tesla heads,” Ives said. “That’s going to dictate pricing and competition in the market.”
GM has scrapped plans to build $55 million hydrogen fuel cell factory in Detroit, triggering a tsunami of headlines about the General’s future plans for hydrogen. The reality? GM isn’t scaling back its hydrogen efforts. It’s thinking bigger.
The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.
MARK TWAIN (sort of)
Like the great Sam Clemens, there seems to be plenty of confidence in the greater automotive press that GM’s decision to cancel a $55 millions fuel cell plant on the former Michigan State Fairgrounds site in Detroit. That plant, a JV with Southeast Michigan’s Piston Automotive, would have created ~140 jobs and built compact hydrogen fuel cells for light- and medium-duty vehicles under the Hydrotec brand.
That plan, frankly, was never going to work. It was always a cynical incentive grab and the first fruits of GM’s Hydrotec efforts were so laughably far behind the state of the electric art that the facts themselves blurred the line between satire and reality. Which, of course, didn’t matter – as long as the incentive money (Biden’s Department of Energy awarded GM $30 million in grants for the State Fairgrounds plant) kept flowing.
The new Trump Administration put an end to that flow last week, however, terminating 321 financial awards for clean energy worth $7.56 billion.
“Certainly the decisions of the DOE are an element of that overall climate but not the only driver,” explained GM spokesperson, Stuart Fowle, in a statement. “We want to prioritize the engineering talent and resources and everything we have to continuing to advance EVs given hydrogen is in a different spot.”
That spot is heavy-duty, off-highway, maritime, and data centers.
Bigger trucks, bigger fuel cells
Instead of dying, GM is continuing on the hydrogen fuel cell it’s been on for literal decades – with no plans (publicly, at least) to shutter its Fuel Cell System Manufacturing joint-venture with Honda in Brownstown Township, MI.
That company is not just developing HFCs, they’re out there selling fuel cells today, to extreme-duty, disaster response, and off-highway equipment customers operating far enough off the grid that access to electricity is questionable and to data center developers for whom access to a continuous flow of energy is mission-critical.
Electrek’s Take
Fuel cells like the ones from GM and Honda will continue to seem like a good idea … for about as long as it takes the heavy equipment guys to watch a ZQUIP video.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Detroit News, FreightWaves, Yahoo!Finance.
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EVs are great, and can unlock more transportation convenience with the ease of charging at home. But for apartment-dwellers, this can be a complicated conversation. So a nonprofit called Forth is here to help, through its Charge at Home program.
One of the main benefits of an electric vehicle is in the convenience of owning and charging the car in the place it spends most of its time. Instead of having to go out of your way to fuel it, you just park it at home, in the same place it spends at least 8 hours a day, and you leave the house every day with a full charge.
But this benefit only applies to those with a consistent parking space which they can easily install charging at. When talking about owners who live in apartment buildings, it can sometimes get more complicated.
While certain states have passed “right to charge” laws to give apartment-dwellers a solution for home charging, apartment charging is nevertheless a bit of a patchwork solution so far.
And as a result of this, EV ownership among apartment renters lags behind that of single-family homeowners. It’s clear that apartments are holding back people from buying EVs, and that’s bad – lots of people live in apartments, and the gas those cars use pollutes the air just as much as any other.
Certain areas where EVs have hit a point of critical mass (namely, the large California cities) have pretty good EV ownership among renters, but it could still be better. And residents are clamoring more and more for easy EV charging in apartment communities.
So, Forth, a nonprofit advocating for equitable access to clean transportation, set up a program called Charge at Home, which is meant to connect renters, apartment building owners or other decisionmakers with resources to help install chargers at multifamily properties.
The site lets you select your situation – a resident or a decisionmaker for a new or existing multifamily development – and then gives you access to tools for your specific situation, whether you be a resident and developer.
The site houses links to help design a multifamily project, find electricians, inform you about right to charge laws or available incentives, and provide case studies, among others.
Charge at Home also hosts roundtable webinars periodically, and includes a library of past webinars with the information you need.
There are a lot of considerations for each of these projects, so it can be helpful to have someone with experience to help you go over it all. Personally, when talking to friends about getting an EV, charging considerations are usually the thing that takes up the bulk of the conversation.
So if the toolkits are still too daunting for you, Charge at Home is offering free charging consultations for multifamily developers, owners, property managers and HOAs.
The charging consultations will last through at least April 2026 – but it wouldn’t hurt to get your requests in soon. Forth may still offer consultations afterwards, but it all depends on funding availability (the program was previously funded by the Department of Energy, which has taken a turn). Regardless, the website will remain up for people to submit questions and find information, whether or not free consultations stick around.
But at the very least, as Forth points out, whether a multifamily development is interested in having EV charging at this moment or not, any developer should think about having the infrastructure, conduit and capacity ready to go for future install of EV chargers, and should consider the needs of current residents who are likely already considering EVs today.
It’s going to be necessary to install this capacity at some point, and doing so earlier can help save money down the line, make your development more attractive to renters today, and allow more renters to make the switch to cleaner transportation which helps air quality and to reduce climate change, both of which harm everyone on the planet.
Head on over to Forth’s Charge at Home site to get access to all the above resources – and to sign up for a consultation before the end of April if you’re a multifamily developer, owner, property manager or HOA.
Update: This article has been updated to account for an extension in program availability.
Electrek’s Take
I’ve long said that the only real problem with EVs is the problem of access to consistent charging for people who don’t have their own garage. Whether this be apartment-dwellers, street-parkers or the like, the electric car charging experience is often less-than-ideal outside of single family homes, at least in North America.
There are workarounds available, like charging at work, or using Superchargers in “third places” where you often spend time, but these still aren’t optimal. The best thing is just to charge your car wherever it spends most of its time, which is your home. When you do that, EVs outshine everything in convenience.
We’ve highlighted some projects before which showed how reasonable it can be to install charging for developments. Every project is going to have its complexities, but when you see projects like this condo complex that managed to install chargers for just $405 per parking spot, all of a sudden it becomes a no-brainer not to have EV charging.
But the fact is, there just aren’t enough apartment complexes out there which have EV charging. So if Forth’s Charge At Home program can help residents or landlords with that, it can go a long way towards solving the only real problem with EVs. Click here to check it out.
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Baltimore County, Maryland, just brought its first large-scale ground-mounted solar farm online, and it sits on what used to be the Parkton Landfill. The 213-acre site, once a symbol of waste, is now generating clean power that will cut costs, slash emissions, and turn an underused piece of land into a long-term energy asset.
Located north of Baltimore City, Baltimore County is one of Maryland’s largest and most populous counties, and its push toward renewables has major implications for the state’s climate and energy goals.
County Executive Kathy Klausmeier called the project a clear example of innovation meeting sustainability: “We are cutting costs for taxpayers and making investments that benefit our communities for decades.”
The new solar farm will provide around 11% of the Maryland county government’s annual electricity, producing roughly 8.2 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) in its first year. That’s the equivalent of avoiding greenhouse gas emissions from burning over 620,000 gallons of gasoline, powering more than 1,150 homes for a year, or driving 14 million fewer miles in gas cars, according to the EPA.
The 7 MW system includes four large solar arrays of 15,000 ground-mounted photovoltaic panels. It’s part of a growing trend in the US to repurpose capped landfills for renewable energy, turning dormant properties into productive clean energy sites.
Through a power purchase agreement with TotalEnergies, which owns and operates the system, Baltimore County will lock in reduced electricity rates for 25 years, with options to extend the contract for up to 33 years. That long-term deal protects taxpayers from future electricity price hikes while advancing local climate goals.
“Adding another large source of solar electricity to power our County’s facilities reflects our community’s values of making smart investments that take care of the health of our community and environment,” said Greg Strella, the county’s chief sustainability officer.
TotalEnergies Managing Director Eric Potts called the project a “powerful example of transforming underutilized assets into productive resources,” pointing to the dual benefits of cutting emissions and saving money.
Baltimore County’s next landfill solar project, at Hernwood, is expected to come online by 2028. Once that system is up and running, renewables will supply about 55% of the county government’s electricity use.
Read more: The Trump administration just killed the US’s largest solar project
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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