Following its delayed but long-anticipated battery guidance pertaining to federal EV tax credits, the US Treasury Department’s requirements are about to kick in, and it’s not great news for all prospective EV buyers. Beginning tomorrow, EVs from major automakers like Volkswagen, Rivian, BMW, and more will no longer qualify for any tax credits at the federal level, while Tesla’s base Model 3 is cut in half.
Following a nearly four-month delay, the US Treasury Department shared its guidance earlier this month, outlining what parameters automakers must comply with in terms of battery component assembly and respective materials in order for their EVs to qualify for federal tax credits.
Beginning April 18, EV manufacturers must ensure that battery-critical minerals used in vehicles assembled in North America are also “extracted or processed in the US or any country with which the US has a free trade agreement” or recycled in North America. Like the EV themselves, battery components must also be “manufactured or assembled in North America.”
Each of the two newly enforced qualifying factors account for $3,750 in EV tax credits, combining for the total $7,500. Even before the battery guidance was revealed, several global automakers began scrambling to erect or repurpose US manufacturing facilities to enable local EV production.
Some of those automakers (like Rivian, for instance) are already American-made, while others, like Volkswagen, have had local plants for years. In that sense, we thought it was safe to assume those automaker’s EVs would continue to qualify for federal tax credits.
However, according to the US government, a slew of previously qualifying EVs are about to be cut (at least for now) because of the battery guidance going into effect. Here’s the latest.
Battery guidance puts huge hit on EV tax credits in US
We’ve been aware of the battery guidance from the US Treasury for a few weeks now and have known those requirements will take effect on April 18. However, automakers aren’t generally super open about how and where they source all their materials, so it remained unclear which EVs may or may not still qualify for the tax credit.
Some automakers like GM, for example, have come out publicly and shared that all their EVs will still qualify for the full $7,500 EV tax credit. Others have remained quiet, leaving us guessing. Today, the government has made things a lot clearer… and more disheartening for those consumers looking to purchase a new Rivian or Nissan LEAF with hopes of getting a $7,500 kickback.
This morning, the US Treasury stated the following models will lose their EV tax credit status beginning tomorrow. Here’s the latest wave of EVs being cut:
Audi (VW Group)
BMW
Genesis (Hyundai Motor Group)
Rivian
Volkswagen
Volvo
Additionally, the US government states that the Standard Range RWD Tesla Model 3 will now only qualify for up to $3,750 in federal EV tax credits. Other trims of the Model 3 and the Tesla Model Y will still qualify for up to the full $7,500 EV tax credit.
Now that they have been cut, that isn’t to say those EVs can’t once again qualify for federal EV tax credits. Volkswagen Group has already come out and said it is “fairly optimistic” that the ID.4 will qualify. The automaker is merely awaiting the proper documentation from a supplier.
Additional automakers like Stellantis expect their electric models to qualify for at least half of the tax credit, and the Treasury has confirmed as much.
Hyundai Motor Group expressed commitment to long term EV plans as it is currently constructing a new US production facility to eventually produce vehicles that will once again qualify for EV tax credits.
This story is ongoing and the list of qualifying EVs should continue to evolve in the coming weeks as the battery guidance kicks in and automakers submit the necessary paperwork (or not) to try and requalify. As always, we will continue to keep this list up to date for you.
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Renewables increased their output by almost 10% and provided nearly a quarter of US electrical generation in 2024, according to newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Solar was still No 1
Solar remained the US’s fastest-growing source of electricity in 2024. Utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar combined increased by 26.9% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report data.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 32%, while small-scale solar increased by 15.3%. Together, solar was nearly 7% (6.91%) of total US electrical generation for the year.
In December alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar expanded by 42% compared to December 2023.
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Small-scale solar (systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 1.9% of the US electricity supply in 2024. In fact, small-scale solar PV generates over five times more electricity than utility-scale geothermal.
2024 renewables milestones
The electrical output of US wind farms in 2024 grew by 7.7% year-over-year. Wind remains the largest source of electrical generation among renewable energy sources, accounting for 10.3% of the US total.
Wind and solar combined provided more than 17.2% of US electrical generation during 2024. The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – provided 24.2% of total US electricity production in 2024 compared to 23.2% of electrical output a year earlier.
Between January and December, electrical generation by renewables grew by 9.6% compared to the same period the year before – nearly three times the growth rate of natural gas (3.3%) and over 10 times that of nuclear power (0.9%).
In December alone, electrical generation by renewables grew by 10.1% compared to December 2023.
Wind and solar together produced 15.9% more electricity than coal and came close to matching nuclear power’s share of total generation (17.2% vs. 17.8%).
The mix of renewables reinforced their position as the second largest source of electrical generation, behind only natural gas.
“Renewable energy sources now provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Consequently, the rash efforts of the Trump Administration to undermine wind, solar, and other renewables will have serious negative consequences for the nation’s electricity supply and the economy.”
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However, we suspected that this would not be “unsupervised self-driving’ in customer vehicles like Tesla has been promising since 2016, but an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for ride-hailing services, much like Waymo has been doing for years.
With the focus on Austin in June, Tesla stopped talking about California, which was announced to happen at the same time as Texas last year.
Now, Bloomberg reports that Tesla has applied for a ride-hailing permit in California:
The electric vehicle manufacturer applied late last year for what’s known as a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, according to documents viewed by Bloomberg. That classification means Tesla would own and control the fleet of vehicles.
But this application is for a regular ride-hailing service, like Uber, albeit for an internal fleet rather than vehicles operated by customers.
Tesla has yet to apply for a permit to operate driverless vehicles:
In its communications with California officials, Tesla discussed driver’s license information and drug-testing coordination, suggesting the company intends to use human drivers, at least initially. Tesla is applying for the same type of permit used by Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s robotaxi business. While Tesla has approval to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver in California, it doesn’t have, nor has applied for, a driverless testing or deployment permit from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a spokesperson.
Musk claimed that he believes Tesla will be able to achieve “unsupervised self-driving” in California by “the end of the year”, but he has claimed that every year for the past decade.
This is just a step for Tesla to test ride-hailing services ahead of autonomy. A nothing burger, really, since ride-hailing has obviously been solved already by several companies, Lyft, Uber, Didi, etc.
What needs to be solved is autonomous driving.
As I have been saying for the last year, I am sure Tesla will be able to launch an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for a ride-hailing service in California later this year like it plans to do in Austin in June, but that’s nowhere near what Tesla promised since 2016.
It’s a moving of the goal post, and it’s basically just proving that Tesla is able to do something similar to Waymo – 5 years later.
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The feature is called “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads” as Tesla seems more cautious about using the term “Full Self-Driving” in China, but it is a feature known for being in the FSD package everywhere else.
Tesla has been facing a lot of issues in releasing FSD features in China. The automaker has been limited in its neural net training due to restrictions about data coming in and out of the country, and it found it difficult to adapt to regulations regarding bus lanes and other China-specific road rules.
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CEO Elon Musk warned that FSD in China would be a problem during Tesla’s earnings call last month due to the different rules. He mentioned bus lanes as an example:
By the way, were about the biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is the bus lanes are very complicated. And there’s like literally like hours of the day that you’re allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly. So, it’s kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China.
The automated ticketing system is not just for bus lanes and Tesla owners are learning about it the hard way.
Tesla owners have been testing out the features in live streams on social media and some of them are reporting getting numerous tickets for using FSD.
For example, this Tesla driver received 7 tickets in the space of a single drive because the FSD drove in bike lanes and made illegal maneuvers:
Car News China tracked several live streams and customer feedback on Chinese social media, and the consensus appears to be that it’s “pretty good, but with lots of bugs”.
The drivers are particularly impressed with how “natural” FSD drives, but they also noted that it still
Where the system lacks is the understanding of local traffic rules (such as no use of shoulder/bike lanes on turns, similar to the bus lane rules that Elon talked about in the most recent earnings call) and the sporadic use of wrong lanes (e.g. going straight in a left or right turn only lane) or navigation showing the vehicle in one lane when in fact it’s in another or wrong perception of objects (red balloons as traffic lights). Many of the live streams counted the number of traffic violations from the vehicle and the number of points that would have been taken off or licenses suspended (12 points = suspension) as a result.
Chinese media websites are now getting flooded with Tesla vehicles running red traffic lights, failing to recognize green lights, and driving on restricted lanes, like the video above.
The report also highlights how Tesla is facing strong competition in ADAS in China, with competitors like Nio, Xpeng, BYD, and others launching competitive products, which is not necessarily the case in other markets for Tesla.
Electrek’s Take
I feel like this is likely going to result in bad PR for Tesla in China. You can’t have drivers losing their licenses because FSD doesn’t recognize bike lanes.
Now, of course, Tesla will say that the driver remains responsible, but I don’t know how good Tesla’s messaging is on that front in China.
It’s going to be an interesting story to track in the coming months.
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